Fundamentals and Technicals
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- Segment 1: Sean Brodrick from Investment U conference provides his outlook for the oil sector.
- Segment 2: Marshall Berol and Richard Postma, AKA Doc, look at resource stocks through fundamentals and technicals.
- Segment 3: Brent Cook of Exploration Insights joins us with his outlook for the PM stock sector.
- Segment 4: Brent Cook’s Partner Joe Mazumdar recaps his PDAC talk regarding the importance of capital structure for development companies.
- Segment 5: A legend in the resource sector, Lawrence Roulston of Resource Opportunities shares his views on what he is looking for in companies.
- Segment 6: The man who introduced the TICK group of countries, Steven Holden discusses what his research is showing.
- Segment 7: Here is out market wrap with Chris Temple of The National Investor and Richard Postma, AKA Doc, focused on gold and oil.
- Segment 8: St. Peter University Political Science Professor, Alain Sanders joins us for a level headed political discussion.
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Cory might be confused , since you did not divulge your true identity at first…….. but, pretended not to be the notorious BIRDMAN….but, who am I to say anything, multi-moniker man that I am…… But, I did uncover your true identity first…. 🙂
You did not uncover the bird first, you might have said something first, but bird cant disguise himself even when he trys. lol
As for monikers, who cares? Its what a person says that matters.
And nobody analyses or ruffles feathers like the bird. lol
True; nobody “analyses” like Bird.
That’s correct. And some follow Bird when he makes a good argument because Birdman has a very good reputation on calling the metals that is not matched by most experts in the business.
Case in point is Clive Maunds missive from today where he confirms my observations of the past week and why we should be cautious with gold and miners (I have fans who come here to read my work Matthew….unlike yourself who is typically more noise than signal).
Gold Market Update By: Clive Maund Sat, Apr 16, 2016 — SafeHaven.com
I’m sure Clive will get it right again, eventually. This “noise” has smoked Clive this year. He has been wrong for the last five or six weeks.
It’s funny that you need ANYONE to confirm your views.
Indeed I don’t because I am an unaffiliated and an independent. I am beholden to nobody nor do I have subscribers to apease. My record speaks for itself and its all here on this site in black and white. Clives article came out AFTER my comments of this past week btw.
But maybe that small detail eluded you.
One day Matthew you may want to make a prediction of your own. You know…..before the facts. What a novelty! I’m sitting on pins and needles just waiting for what it might be.
All the sane readers here know that I constantly say what I think “before the facts.” I certainly do so more than you do and most others are perpetually in a “wait and see” mode.
Oh yeah, I forgot about all the charts you post with minimum explanation where we are supposed to read your mind. I mean uh….the ones where you refer us back again and again when you get the periodic a lucky strike. Hahaha!!!
No, no mind-reading is necessary; you can always ask questions if you don’t get something but I think most here now know that lines on a chart represent resistance if the price is below them and support when price is above them.
If you were not a complete pretender, you would not say the things that you do about my charts.
Actually, I don’t open your links anymore. Its pointless.
Bird, do you know what irony is?
b…….just going by what others told me…….. that I was first……he,he lol
You are first in my books Frank!
thanks BIRDMAN, I will take that as a compliment……. 🙂
It is indeed.
Sorry Bird I did not know for sure if you wanted me to use your name. To be safe I usually just say one of our listeners. Next time I will for sure drop your name.
Thank you Cory. Its not my real name but i just felt irrelevant for a moment there. I am over it now. Anyway, i am happy you picked up on this gold topic. I could be wrong in the big picture conclusion of my assessment of course. The only thing that I feel certain of is that gold and silver will correct……by how much is the real debate.
I am going to repost my comment from yesterday for reference since you mentioned it in segment 7. It is a fair objective assessment and the warning should be clear given so many other technical readings now support a decline in both metals and miners going forward.
These are technical reads that are also very to easy to understand for laymen and those who takes the time to check the charts. I am anticipating much more than just a garden variety correction.
We should therefore be on the look out for a long decline.
Since the price trend has been unable to exceed the upper boundary of the channel in the cases mentioned (candles and spikes are disqualified in this kind of charting) then there is only one direction for the trend to go and that is down.
Not only do I expect a decline but I am projecting falls all the way back to the bottom of the channel. That means lower lows. We can review this at year end when I believe I will have been proven to be 100% correct in the assessment.
Here is yesterdays post arguing against the bull case for gold:
On April 15, 2016 at 12:21 pm,
Farmer in Canada says:
Of course. I get euphoric too. I love a stock rally in metals as much as anyone. At heart though I retain some legitimate doubts. Neither gold or the miners have broken out of their bear trends yet.
And that makes me wonder what is wrong after such a terrific run-up in price. So then I started looking harder at the charts and trying to figure out if there is a danger and what the problem might be. And sure enough I found something.
A few somethings actually.
Look at GLDX (explorers) on a five year chart as one example. Can you see that it has not yet broken out from the upper trend channel that was several years in the making? Now take a quick glance over at GDX. It is the same story. Just get out your trusty plastic ruler and stick it right on the screen.
There is no breakout yet.
The current price is sitting right below that upper (imaginary) boundary. And that is at a point when a number of other technicals are already warning us a corrective decline is coming or that we remain in overbought territory. Furthermore the positioning of the Commercials is very much a continuing concern.
Don’t stop there though because there is more. Flip on over to GDXJ. Same story again! The Junior miners have NOT broken out of the trend channel. Price remains below the break-out point. Can’t everyone see this or are they all lying to themselves!
All I am saying is lets be honest with ourselves. We cannot declare a new bull market in miners until we get past some technical overhead. But that has not happened yet so the only reasonable conclusion I can come to as a trader is that stock price averages will therefore attempt to return to the lower boundary of the channel.
Pretty straightforward conclusion, don’t you think? Maybe even a little uninspired like a stick in the mud. But I just cannot stomach the bulls trying to shove this new gold narrative down my throat every single day and NOT ONE OF THEM ever talks about what is obviously on the charts.
But I am not finished. Go to the grand daddy of index charts. The HUI of course. You see what I see on that same five year chart?……..Well it is exactly as I suspected. It too has NOT been able to break out of its trend channel.
That has got to mean something and so I am not here just trying to be irritating to you or anyone else when I say “Wait a minute guys, something is not quite right here yet”.
So do we want to trade with odds of success or do we want to all pile on the monotonous group-think band wagon again like a pile of idiots and get our arses handed to us one more time?
Well I decided to take the contrary bet. I hate losing at this game so I sold my miners near the top and then days ago placed a bet on DUST in the strong belief that what will not rise further must therefore return to its origins. I hope to make out well but only God knows if I am correct or not.
Anyway, I appreciate any dialogue this site can offer. So far nobody really wants to weigh in on this even though what I am saying is pretty reasonable and logical. What I don’t appreciate are the people like Matthew who are so single minded in their bullishness that no amount of evidence can sway them and all they offer in return is pathetic daily insults. That just shows the low caliber of his thinking as I see it.
And it amounts to social piggishness.
Anyway, I have put forward a reasonable case for why we need to doubt the continued strength of this bull in the miners. I would encourage you to look at it objectively no matter how much you dislike me and judge for yourself if the clarion trumpet calls for a new bull in miners is legitimate or perhaps it is still a little premature.
Take a minute to look at the long gold chart itself. Same story. No breakout. Lets stop lying to ourselves on this site.
GDX on a Five Year Chart.
Well said farmer.
Lets face it, many have been calling bottoms and return of the bull for years now. Yes, it will come, but now is not the time… we have not yet flushed the toilet.
Agree Bobby. Have a look at this linked article I came across today from Clive Maund. It is supportive of virtually all I have been saying the past weeks including the assertion on my part that the USD is about to rally.
In fact I noted here more than a week back I was shifting from CAD to USD exactly because I saw a reversal coming in the pair. It means coincidentally that oil is about to fall (with gold) and I strongly suspect US equity markets are going to take a tumble at the same time although I cannot predict how much of a correction is in store.
My worst case scenario is actually in crash territory at S&P 1650 (lets hope that does not happen)
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund | Sat, Apr 16, 2016
A short term dollar rally is obviously supported by the daily chart indicators like the MACD and stochastics but the move up off the low last week is already looking feeble.
Sell any strength for now. It is far from looking bullish beyond the short term.
Of course disagree. The dollar will trend up for a while.
What’s a “while”? You know you would ask me the same, Mr “Why don’t you stick your neck out.”
Its a highly technical term. I am sure I cannot explain it to you. 🙂
Of course you can’t. If you were really the technical type, you would drop flowery book-length opinions in the comment section like you do.
*you would NOT drop…
Matthew, Martin Armstrong has written a post today just for you. Its about you actually and the fact you can only say “buy” but never say sell when it comes to gold. Pretty funny that he understands your type so well.
Are the People being Manipulated by those Claiming Manipulation?
Posted Apr 17, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
You’re a fool, Birdman. I sell all the time. I’ve done hundreds of trades so far this year and at least half have been sales.
Of course you sell all the time. That is not what we are talking about here. What I refer to is your constant bullish posts on metals with only a rare word of caution they might fall back.
But I have zero doubt you are taking me seriously and have already bought downside protection on your positions. You didn’t say that on the blog though because it would conflict with your ever-sunny outlook on metals no matter what is really happening.
Martin understands your type very well when he writes:
“Let’s get real here. You are not an “analyst” if you ONLY forecast to buy. Sorry, that is a promoter, not an independent analyst”. — Martin Armstrong
So Matthew, have you covered your bullish bets with protection yet or are you wide open to a fall? Please don’t tell us all after the fact once gold and the miners have gone down that you had no losses because you put sufficient options in play.
………….NO NEED TO NAME CALL………Just stick to the FACTS……….. JMHO.
I will be checking out the HUI……….for added info………thanks for the thought.
Gold will get bloodied next week Jerry. Careful if you are doing any fresh buying. I have a sneaking suspicion my DUST play is going to pay off well.
Oil will get a bloody nose next week too.
And so will the US indices. Red, red. red.
No new buying …….just looking…….. thanks for the reminder……
Got it . that is what Doc. said before. Thank you for good thoughts. well well said.
Well said farmer.I am on the same wavelength as you are farmer.I respect others opinions but like you said it is crystal clear that there has been no breakouts to the upside yet and thus no reason to make bullish statements on gold.Btw Matthew is so single minded in his bullishness on gold that big Al wanted to invite him on the show.No wonder why.Some people have their own agenda (bullion/coin dealers and bullion banks/paid shills and oil snake salesmen)and some let their emotions rule their reasoning.Some are in denial and some are dillusional.Some know nothing about technicals and try to make sense of the markets using only the fundamentals.There are others who talk from both sides of their mouth and other who play for the gallery.There are others who had been trapped in a position and who tried to average down;to no effect.Thus the reasons why people deny to tell the truth or else to say things as they are could be various.
For the record, Don, my “single-minded bullishness” has paid off extremely well. For a speculator hunting elephants, buying the major lows of the last year was the right thing to do. Remaining heavily exposed to the sector year-to-date has also been correct.
Also for the record, it seems lost on you and a few others that I never recommend buying anything that has already had a big run. I present companies for consideration while they are at or near what I think will be the low. For example:
Matthew – I’m liking the looks of Constantine Metals and it is on my short list to consider for a little Copper & PM exploration and development speculation soon.
I had posted on it during my Copper focus 2 weeks back, and appreciate you pointing it out to me. Since then I’ve seen other pundits very positive on it, and watched them give videos of their corporate presentations at investment conferences, and go to their website about once a month to check on press releases and them moving their projects forward.
Thanks again for bringing them up a while back, along with any stocks you mention.
I still like it too and have more than replaced all the shares I sold in the last good run. It has a superb risk to reward profile in my opinion but I think buyers still have time to accumulate gradually. I am very likely to buy more, too.
Matthew – down below is a chart which was piggy-backed off that Impact Silver chart, to create a new chart with Impact as a Line Chart my 3 biggest Silver positions for the year (Silvercorp, Americas Silver, and Great Panther). I did pretty good, but would have done much better if I’d have pulled the trigger on Impact when I planned to in Jan. I tried several times in Jan and Feb to get orders executed but my orders never got filled and got deployed in other areas. I would have done better in Impact that Silvercorp and Great Panther, but they’ve done really well so I can’t really complain. It just seemed only right to tip my hat to you on the Impact Silver pick. Congrats on a great call that anyone on KER could have taken advantage of since it was posted on regularly on here.
Eventually I got the position back in Alexco too, but not until early March. In late Dec & Jan I got in heavy with the other 3 and also had some Hecla and Avino Silver & Gold and Sierra Metals. I should have just kept my Silvercrest but I sold it like a dummy. Also, I waffled on Arizona Mining, and even though I was enthusiastic I never pulled the trigger. Oh well…..
3 month Chart with Impact Silver, Silvercorp, Americas Silver Corp, and Great Panther Silver.
Here’s that same 3 month Line Chart with Impact Silver – but with Americas Silver Corp, Alexco (wish I’d have gotten on board sooner), and Silvercrest (if I had just hung on).
Here’s a 3 month Line Chart with Impact, Hecla, Avino, and Arizona.
In retrospect I should have bought Arizona and Impact over Hecla and Avino, but I was surprised the intensity of this uptrend in the metals. I was expecting a bounce to 1160 in Gold and $15 in Silver, but not to 1280 in Gold and 16.25 Silver. Hindsight is 20/20, but had I known this would be such a strong rally, I’d have definitely swapped Hecla for Impact Silver or Arizona Mining. As for little Avino Silver & Gold, they just timed the announcement of their capital raising at the wrong time, but I really like them, and they haven’t got the rerating yet that their peers have, so there is a lot of stored value in ASM. If Silver continues to play catch up compared to Gold, then I think Avino may get on its bike and ride soon……
REVISED – OK, I knew something didn’t look right on those previous charts, because both Americas Silver Corp and Silvercrest had outperformed Impact Silver over the last 3 months, but apparently it matters which one is the primary stock picked. Since Americas Silver has been the top performer in all silver stocks over the last 3 month time frame, then I used it as the baseline, and charted the price performance of Silvercrest, Impact, and Alexco in the background. Now all the percentages look correct. Sorry about that on the prior 2 charts.
REVISED Line Chart: Arizona Mining, Impact Silver, Silvercorp, and Americas Silver Corp.
Honestly, investors would have done great with any of these companies, but here is a final 3 month Line chart with:
Canasil Resources, Impact Silver, Excellon Resources, and Americas Silver Corp
Thanks for that, and thank you for talking about Americas Silver, Scorpio Gold, and Jaguar Mining over the last year.
Its fun. Let’s go find some more.
And don’t forget these:
Don’t forget my bearishness on the dollar…
…or my consistent call for 78 on the Loonie:
Even JAG is up 35-40% since I recently commented that I bought it.
Jaguar mining has had a great run. I’ve posted on very consistently on KER about them (38 times) over the last year, and already have double bagger at 214%.
There is still so much room to run…… Yee Haw!!!
BTW – nice looking chart.
I don’t know about you, Ex, but I think the opportunity in JAG might be much greater than I initially thought. If you, or anyone else who knows it well, disagree, I hope you’ll share the reasons.
Disclosure: I tripled my position since my initial purchase before it went over .30 and just might double it again.
Hi Matthew. No I agree, that is why I’ve been writing about Jaguar Mining for over a year as one of the best turn around stories nobody has been talking about. Like I said above, there is still so much room to run. They haven’t even taken their third mining complex off care and maintenance yet, and when they do – look out! as this thing will spike up sharply after that. Also their Gurupi Project in Brazil looks very interesting as another development project. They have a ton of exploration upside as well. I’m a huge fan like I’ve been saying since last April 🙂
Thanks for the reply. I knew JAG had gone through an extremely rough period so it wasn’t a priority to get around to looking at it. What really made it happen was my need for good new opportunities after the initial big moves this year. The same goes for UEX, SGN (twice), and PGM – which has tripled for me.
Yeup, there is serious potential in that nice, round double bottom…
I’m going to post a little past Jaguar mining talk from the KER blog, but it’s just to show the continuum of updates, and does not represent my trading in and out it. The vast majority of my purchases in JAGGF were between $.14-.19, but i’ve trading in and out of it averaging down, trimmed most recently around $.24. My average cost basis is currently $.1402 and the it closed at $.3010 on Friday:
Jaguar Mining dicussions – JAG Talk….
• On April 2, 2015 at 11:27 am,
I still have some positions and hold about 40 companies in my portfolio in various other equities, and still have about a dozen Jr. Miners that l think make great takeout targets for a major (like Rye Patch, Exeter, Tower Hill Mines, Scorpio Mining, Wellgreen Platinum, Polymet, North American Palladium, Silvercrest mines, Romarco Minerals, Crocodile Gold, Golden Queen, Inca One Gold corp, Torex Gold, and Jaguar Mining).
• On April 10, 2015 at 3:47 pm,
Currently, here are some on my list of Jr Miners as potential takeover targets:
Exeter, International Tower Hill Mines, Rye Patch, GoGold Resources, Golden Queen, Torex Gold, Silvercrest Mines, Crocodile Gold, Argonaut Gold, Aurico Gold, Inca One Gold, Romarco, Orocobre, Idaho North, Bear Creek, Typhoon, Niogold, Wellgreen Platinum, Polymet, Jaguar Mining, Garibaldi Resources.
• On August 5, 2015 at 11:08 am,
For Gold, I’ve got a position in Romarco (merging with Oceanagold), Exeter, Torrex, Jaguar, Golden Queen, and Rye Patch as they were some of my hold out takeover targets.
However, I interested in getting back some of my producers like Guyana Goldfields, Lake Shore Gold, Claude, Klondex, Kirkland Lake, Yamana, Argonaut, Sandstorm, and maybe a position in SGDJ. I may even grab a position in True Gold.
• On August 13, 2015 at 12:28 pm,
I did hold onto a few miners like Americas Silver Corp, Rye Patch, Exeter, Platinum Group Metals, Mandalay Resources, Jaguar Mining, Golden Queen, some of my Sandstorm Gold, some SIL & partial SWC positions. I also started a small position in Sierra Metals yesterday.
• On August 20, 2015 at 4:49 pm,
No – I sold out of my JNUG earlier in the week. I did ride a a partial Argonaut Gold position, a nice Americas Silver Corp position, a nice Sandstorm Gold position, as small Mandalay Resources position, a small Sierra Metals position, a partial position in Stillwater mining, and picked up a small position in Coeur this morning that appreciated nicely throughout the day. I also have some other smaller explorers like Rye Patch, Exeter, Platinum Group Metals, Torex Gold, Jaguar Mining, Golden Queen and a few others that didn’t do much, but I’m holding these as takeover targets.
• On October 14, 2015 at 1:12 pm,
The markets have been kind to my miners lately with many up in double-digits the last few weeks.
The winner for me today was Jaguar up over 51% at the end of the day. Nice.
Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAGGF) OTC
0.24 Up 0.08(51.61%) 3:02PM EDT
• On October 14, 2015 at 9:22 pm,
+50% in one day … I kind of hate you right now, Shad.
• On October 15, 2015 at 9:15 am,
Well, Jaguar was due and is still due for more of a re-rating. Back in the last PM cyclical bull this stock was many multiples higher, it ran into a few snags right as the markets tanked, when all the way down to bankruptcy, restructured, came out, and they’ve been gradually making improvements in production and cost controls quarter after quarter, yet the price stayed buried. Maybe they are finally getting noticed again since the metals have been perking up a bit.
• On February 14, 2016 at 2:04 pm,
I just see the potential for more surprise to the upside or a takeover than surprise to the downside at this point. I feel the same way about Jaguar mining for Gold who has a similar narrative coming out of credit protection but having real assets in place.
5 yr chart for Nicola Mining to show the fall from grace…… May be a great turnaround.
• On March 4, 2016 at 7:25 am,
Jaguar Mining Announces Large Reserve Increase at Pilar Gold Mine
TORONTO, March 4, 2016
• On March 11, 2016 at 12:42 pm,
I also added to Jaguar Mining yesterday but that is in with my gold stocks that I left basically untouched recently hoping for a test of $1308.
• On March 12, 2016 at 12:13 pm,
Had a talk with Matt earlier regarding jaguar and Aurcana three weeks ago when i spotted a nice entry point, Matt can confirm. These two companies out of the bunch including golden star resources are a gamble but I bet the farm 2 out of the three will be 10-15 plus baggers.
• On March 12, 2016 at 5:47 pm,
As for Jaguar and Aurcana, I own shares of both at at attractive levels, and have been nibbling at both for the last few months. I agree they are much more high risk, but also could be 10-15 baggers, hence the reason I took the risk
I remember them both from much higher levels, and while Aurcana only has the TX Shafter Mine now, I think they have turned the corner on their stupid management calls, have cleared house in their management team, and assembled a better direction, and lastly they’ve restructured already so most of the downside is factored in, but the upside is going to be worth the candle. As for Jaguar, a very similar story. They have 2 mines with exploration upside, they just expanded mine-life by over 300% and I remember when they were a $6 stock. When they came out of restructuring, I started following them again. I find that when stocks actually arise from restructuring with real assets and a real plan that they can blow the doors off most stocks. This is the exact same reason why I have such high hopes for Nicola Mining (formerly Huldra Silver). This is also why I am starting to invest in the Uranium company Paladin again, who also just restructured and has real assets and mines.
All 4 companies: Aurcana, Jaguar, Nicola Mining, and Paladin have very good odds of being fantastic turn around stories and possibly take out targets down the road now that they’ve sorted out their dirty laundry. I am up for a little risk and am hanging on to those waiting for the upside surprise (but still cognizant that there could still be a downside fail).
• On March 15, 2016 at 2:46 am,
I included Jaguar with the Mid-tier Gold producers because they are producing 90,000-95,000 ounces of Gold in 2016, but have their 3rd mine in care and maintenance, and when they bring it back into production they’ll be doing far over the 100,000 ounces per annum threshold.
• On March 22, 2016 at 10:01 am,
There’s no doubt Jaguar Mining had a rough time the last few years, but I’m seeing them make steady improvement quarter after quarter, and to my eyes they are starting to turn things around in a positive direction, and are set up for improving cash flow, paying down debt, and when/if Gold prices rise, they should have a large leverage to the upside.
Q4 2015 Highlights
Jaguar Mining Corporate Presentation – March 2016
On March 22, 2016 at 10:07 am,
Thanks Ex, haven’t had Jag on the screen for years after all it’s serious previous issues. Didn’t even realize they were still around.
• On March 22, 2016 at 10:39 am,
Yes they went into credit protection for years, and just came out of it recently but retained their 3 mining complexes, and other development & exploration properties.
I remember when Jaguar was one of the favorites on Kitco and was trading at $6 versus $.22 today. Most investors forgot about them, but I’m bringing it to investors attention here on KER because I believe they’ll get re-rated in 2016.
Jaguar Mining produced 90,421 ounces of gold in 2015, from only 2 of their 3 mining complexes (the Turmalina mine and processing center and Caete complex with 2 mines and processing plant) Their 3rd major center (Paciencia) is on care and maintenance waiting for higher metals prices. [see page 3 of Corporate Presentation above].
When Gold and base metals rise a little more, that 3 asset will go back into production again and they’ll clear well over 100,000 ounces of gold annually.
Now if you look at page 7 on the Corporate Presentation above something really jumped out at me for the 2016 guidance comparison amongst their peers:
2016 Guidance (note the market cap of Jaguar compared to their peers)
Wesdome production 56,000 (market cap 202 million)
Timmins Gold production 80,000 (market cap 108 million)
Jaguar Mining production 93,000 (market cap 22 million)
Richmont Mines production 98,000 (market cap 415 million)
Troy Resources production 110,000 (market cap 126 million).
* Marty, I just don’t think Jaguar is on most investors radar but they are producing more gold than most of the smaller producers that only produce 30,000 -100,000 per year, but they don’t get the headlines or the coverage (YET).
Jaguar is back to being considered a Jr company, but in the past they were really a Mid-Tier producer with 4 mines, 3 mining complexes, 2 processing centers, the development stage Gurupi project, and some other exploration properties that can kick up production in a big way once Paciencia goes back on line. As a result I think they could blow right out of this category and back to mid-tier status by 2017.
They are like a Major league player that had 2-3 rough seasons and got sent back down to the Minor League to work it out. Many companies would die a slow death, but in this case they are ramping up again and I believe they’ll catch most of the market off guard.
Simply sharing a potential turn-around story on a sleeper producer that people left for dead a few years back. Surprise! I believe Jaguar could get up over $1 a share in 2017 and be a 5 bagger in less than 12 months. (not investment advice, just my opinion)
• On March 23, 2016 at 8:27 pm,
Sure, there are other exciting Mid-Tiers (I’m drawing the line in the sand of companies doing more than 100,000 ounces of gold equivalent in production and typically 2 or more mines) and I am counting Richmont Mines and Jaguar Mining as part of the mid-tier group because while they both have guidance in the 93-98K range, they both could easily be over the 100,000 K threshold in an upside surprise or moving into 2017 if you measured from mid-year 2016 to mid-year 2017 in production.
On March 24, 2016 at 5:57 am,
Put Jaguar Mining Inc V.JAG on your list.
Nice turn around story! Now making a profit!
• On March 24, 2016 at 7:06 am,
Absolutely Chad, I’ve written about Jaguar Mining quite often lately and did mention it up above before I posted the list:
“….I am counting Richmont Mines and Jaguar Mining as part of the mid-tier group because while they both have guidance in the 93-98K range, they both could easily be over the 100,000 K threshold in an upside surprise or moving into 2017 if you measured from mid-year 2016 to mid-year 2017 in production.”
I own the US ticker JAGGF and agree they are going to be one heck of a turnaround story and I posted some information updates on them on Tuesday:
• On March 22, 2016 at 9:55 am,
Jaguar Mining Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Operating and Financial Results, Significantly Lower Costs, Positive Operating Cash Flow
March 22, 2016
• On March 24, 2016 at 9:09 am,
I love the volume today on JAG. Looks like some big money scooping up shares?
Churning a bit..maybe next month this starts to move up big time.
• On March 24, 2016 at 11:30 am,
Yes – for me Jaguar Mining is a turnaround story but they are definitely going to get re-rated, so I’m hanging onto it at least until we see them valued closer to their peers in market cap. This may take 6 months or a year, but since people are interested in the miners again, some of these companies that restructured and came out of credit protection with their assets (like Jaguar, Aurcana, Nicola Mining, and Paladin) represent real value and all 4 companies have mines on care and maintenance and can ramp up with the rising prices. Alexco is in a similar boat, but they never went into balance sheet restructuring like the other 4 companies mentioned.
Most investors are probably not aware of just how much Gold Jaguar is producing and that they’ve righted the ship so to speak. When they do…..look out!
• On March 28, 2016 at 3:57 pm,
Also, I really love companies coming out of credit restructuring that retain their assets and have a huge chance for a market surprise to the upside like Aurcana, Nicola Mining, Paladin, or Jaguar Mining mentioned below.
That’s part of being early to the party as a contrarian when there is real value there.
On March 28, 2016 at 3:21 pm,
JAG shareholders lose Hope…
On March 28, 2016 at 3:32 pm,
That is just a Director stepping down, which happens all the time, and has nothing to do with shareholders losing hope, so I don’t really understand your statement there.
• On March 28, 2016 at 3:36 pm,
Nevermind – I get it, his last name is Hope….. Very funny Matthew
Jaguar has actually been performing very well lately, is on track to produce 93,000 ounces of gold in 2016, and is probably one of the best turn-around stories in the Gold mining space in my opinion, so I’d say “shareholders are gaining hope” based on their results and share price volume increases lately.
Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAGGF)
0.2240 Up 0.0041(1.86%) 3:41PM EDT
March 23, 2016
Jaguar Mining Expands Land Position; Strategic Mineral Tenure Staking Increases Concession Block By 79% At Pilar Gold Mine, Brazil
• On March 28, 2016 at 3:38 pm,
Here is the March Corporate Presentation for Jaguar Mining:
• On March 28, 2016 at 3:41 pm,
Again, I recommend investors note the Market Cap disparity on Pg 7 of the corporate presentation above between Jaguar’s peers (Wesdome, Timmins, Richmont, & Troy).
This is a stock that is going to get re-rated in 2016 and moving into 2017.
You know, going back and re-reading these posts I did OK on picking 5 different takeover companies out of this post from a year ago:
Silvercrest, Aurico Gold, Romarco, Crocodile Gold, and Niogold all did get taken over. Who will be next?
On April 10, 2015 at 3:47 pm,
Currently, here are some on my list of Jr Miners as potential takeover targets:
Exeter, International Tower Hill Mines, Rye Patch, GoGold Resources, Golden Queen, Torex Gold, Silvercrest Mines, Crocodile Gold, Argonaut Gold, Aurico Gold, Inca One Gold, Romarco, Orocobre, Idaho North, Bear Creek, Typhoon, Niogold, Wellgreen Platinum, Polymet, Jaguar Mining, Garibaldi Resources.
with all winners why don’t you start your own program? love to see a copy of your trading account statement, otherwise its just your word, which is………
No, your kind would probably not like to see a copy of my trading account statement but if there is an easy enough and legal way to make a wager, just make it worth my while and I’ll prove my portfolio triple.
Thank you Matthew.. and so does my portfolio!!!!
You’re welcome Ann; congratulations on your success.
just what i thought, not worth my time.
Lol! If I was worth YOUR time I would quit.
Your comments only come across as sounding jealous and/or upset Bobby?
Did you miss out?
Thanks Don! Good to see there are others like yourself taking a hard look at these charts and not just allowing the usual perma-bulls feed us their repetitive pablum of gold-centric mantras based around worthless hope-based investing.
You mean, it’s good to see people besides yourself, who’ve been wrong, remain in denial. 😉
Yup, well said Farmer.
Im gonna bore you again when I remind you I have stuck to “I still like Docs doldrums”.
Actually, the “new” thought of yours about the yen strengthening? preventing your $968, snuffs Ricks $817 too of course, that kinda makes me wonder about just above $1000 being the low.
I wonder if that would be enough of a washout.
I have a pretty good interview you might be interested in bb. Its from Ross Clark at CINC Wood Gundy on This Week in Money. Anyway, Ross is cautioning on the metals and mining stock and suggesting people take a little profit off the table if they have been making hay on this recent gold run. I won’t repeat all his comments but its a good listen for the first ten minutes of the show.
This Week in Money – Ross Clark in first segment
Thanks for the link birdman.Ross clark is an objective guy.He say things as they really are without twisting facts to suit anyones’ theory or agenda.Guys like him are a hidden gem in this insidous business.Thanks again buddy and never give up your fight.People like you must be treasured for sanity to prevail.
Anytime Don. Thanks for the kind words.
By the way, that should have said CIBC up above, no CINC. Not sure how that error slipped through the net but it did. Nobody has called me from the bank yet to tell me I am an idiot….but the day is still young.
Are you with CIBC? 🙂
Hope all’s well.
Allow me to put my 2cts on your views of low in/low not in etc…
As a preliminary double note, some reminders on my own personal perspective/views, which I have stated several times, both in words, and during KER interviews.
1) the low has been in since 2013 for many of the best quality PM stocks – thanks to Chris Temple for spotting that out for us a while back now.
—> so a lot of the “low is in/low not in” discussion, to me, is quite IRRELEVANT on a stock specific basis
2) the low is in for the ETFs (GDX/GDXJ). That, to me, is important from a sector sentiment standpoint. i.e I SUSPECT when new potential investors (fresh money) look at the sector again, they might be inclined to think (if they see things as I do) that the low is in for those ETFs.
So 3 very simple straight forward consequences from the 1) and 2) preliminary notes above:
A> Stock selection matters above everything.
I couldn’t care less about what GDX/GDXJ/GLDX do when it comes to my own portfolio performance. I just care from a sentiment standpoint.
B> IF the low is in for the ETFs, then you could think of it like an ABCD pattern, with clearly defined RISK parameters NOW: the A is the recent Dec/Jan low (wherever it is on the ETFs you look at), the B could be the recent high.
Based on that, you buy into pullbacks when you see a C zone forming, targeting D for upside and A being your downside risk.
This is how you “trade” an ABCD pattern, whether intraday or multi-months.
C> If again, the low is in, then we are in what is called a bull market.
In a bull market, what one normally “should” do is keep a core and add on dips. Can’t be more complicated than that.
That’s the difference with a bear market where one should by the FLUSHES and sell rips.
So to me, I’ll repeat that my view is that pullbacks on stocks specific should be bought. Which implies that 1) I choose the stocks to which I wanna add, 2) I use technicals for pullbacks (support zone, fibo retraces etc…) –> whatever seem to make sense.
Best to you,
Thanks Canadian Farmer,
Please remember that you are among the “top tier” of all here. As I have said many, many times I am not a technician in any sense of the word. I also have to say that I bet on people assuming that the fundamentals are there to support them. When I say that “I bet on people” that definitely does not include the members of the management sector who have proven to be nothing other than good story tellers. ie stock promoters. Trust me during the past thirty five or so years I have met them all. I do have enough principals that I do not even invest in the successful ones.
Thank you Al.
Thanks guys as always. Ref Brent Cook’s exploration sites (Seg 3) we do well to heed that there are still some 1300 exploration sites hanging on in as well as being hyped up unrealistically. I don’t know how many of these companies have validity, but have dipped a toe in with Nevada Exploration: NE is in an ultra safe jurisdiction, while using ground water assaying technology to offer the potential for massive finds. Is this the next Barrick? Your thoughts would be appreciated.
Avoid the hype and you will be a great deal more successful investing in precious metals.
That expression is as valid for stocks or housing or any other asset class one might like to discuss. You need to read sentiment. You need to appreciate the danger when most traders are positioned on one side of the boat.
And you need to be vigilant when the perma-bulls ignorantly exhort you to buy ever more when the danger signal starts to get extreme at both tops and bottoms. A case in point is the silver market where I learned this morning that Hedge Funds now have the largest long position on silver that has EVER BEEN RECORDED.
That should be music to the ears of the contrarian bettors in the room like myself. And indeed it is since I went short gold miners (and silver) several days back at what will likely prove to have been the exact top for the shares.
The charts back me up too as do the technicals. Silvers run is finished. So has gold’s. Now only the crying remains for the bulls as their hard sought gains begin to evaporate over the coming months if they don’t take some profits. Not that I really care. I happen to think greed is properly punished at all times. So it is fitting that the bugs lose money since they usually can’t use their heads.
Our good friend, Trader Dan Norcini, offers us his unique perspective on this issue in a post he made public yesterday. Dan warns that the Commercials and Swap Dealers are now net short silver with their LARGEST NET SHORT POSITION IN HISTORY.
It is going to be a bloodbath.
And I intend to enjoy this from the balcony seats while making gravy as the usual suspects keep pumping sunshine up everyone’s arses as the Titanic slowly goes down. I did not get to be the most accurate gold and silver technician by accident, my friends.
That comes from being objective and paying attention to the signs. It comes from not lying to myself or running an agenda to trick other people. And it comes from having been in and out of this market since the 1960’s. Metals and miners are going down. That is my opinion.
You have been warned.
Silver – Commitments of Traders — Trader Dan Norcini of TraderDansWorld.
KWN has been wrong about gold, on a daily basis, for over 4 years, but now they agree with you.
Oh well. And it’s motive is?
My reason for mentioning the COT discussion from King World News? If a full-blown gold-BULL site like KWN is posting articles about a possible downturn in gold due to extreme COT conditions, then the idea that gold bears are an extreme minority is incorrect, in my opinion.
Good thinking. The main factor that has kept many experts on the wrong side lately is probably the fact that so much dumb money agrees with them.
I SAY CHECK their GURU STATUS……….Fleck at 37%, Russell 37%,Leeb 48%
Yeup – their Guru Membership Cards may get revoked…..
That’s OK CNBC is probably hiring 🙂
Thanks Farmer. Agree that self-deception is the worst of all deceptions! Best, A
Yes, Gentlemen, “self deception is the worst of all deceptions”.
Notice that most of the “perma bulls” are not featured on this site. I realize that some of them are quite popular, but that is simply because they are validating the opinions of others who are consistently wrong.
Thanks for the show guys.
Our pleasure Skeeta!
I am really happy to hear you saying that Andrew. It is an affliction too many suffer from. Right up there with pride and envy. And in this business of gold investing the ego’s are just monstrous, the self denial epic and the lying worthy of any great soap opera. I wish I knew why this sector seems to harbor such a disproportionate share of people willing to deceive, confuse and manipulate others into buying even during bitter bear markets. One day someone will do a study. Even fans of APPL are not this rabid and as we know those die-hards are extreme!
Commercials continue to move against the direction of the PMs. Disaggregated Commitments of Traders-All Futures Combined Positions as of April 12, 2016 reportable positions: The net short silver positions increased about another 8,000 contracts while the net short gold positions increased about another 13,500 contracts. We’ve had a nice run in these PMs and a normal pull back is expected. Months ago my CBI was telling me we would have a pullback into spring and May—the commercials may be telegraphing that aspect.
That’s what I am saying Doc. We will correct. I think we differ on magnitude and depth is all. I am quite a bit more bearish than you based on my own readings. Only time can tell for certain but I put targets on that will be a useful guideline as we head into summer. If they don’t pan out i will adjust positions and change tack.
You know me….I won’t marry an idea no matter how lovely she looks.
Good info. thank you Doc.
Bird, look at the revenues of some of the perma bull “experts”. I could go on and name names, but why bother?
Big Al & Cory – thanks for putting out another great weekend show. Much appreciated!
I just blew my wad posting on Doc’s blog from Friday, so I’ll give everyone a break from my normal weekend posting madness 🙂
If anyone is interested I put up a corrected chart on the Top 10 Silver stocks from Jan 15th – April 15th.
DW Jones – I posted a lengthy response to you unpacking my transition from Mid-Tiers in 2015 and early 2016, to Smaller Gold and Silver producers, and that now I’m transitioning over to more Development stage companies, unloved smaller producers that haven’t been re-rated by the marketplace yet, and the Jr Explorers. I named about 50+ different companies in the various sub-sectors in that post.
Farmer In Canada/Birdman – I responded back to you with a very long summary on the Lithium Stocks and the demand picture on Doc’s blog yesterday. I would also still highlight the corporate presentations from last weekend’s show that get into the real Supply vs Demand metrics for this greatly misunderstood sector. (hint: Tesla is not the only or even the most important driver for Lithium demand).
I also completely agree with the comments you made yesterday on Doc’s blog regarding Doha and the Oil meeting this weekend. I feel the same way you do about about a potential shock to the markets early next week if things don’t go well, and that is why I bought more TVIX yesterday afternoon (just in case).
Skeeta – I responded back in our “What is a Contrarian Investor?” thread. Sorry I misunderstood how you got the the 50% gain in the coal stock, but I still think you are a damn good contrarian investor and I really appreciate all the stock ideas you have offered to the KER crew in your posts. Cheers!
May everyone have a great weekend!!
Thanks Shad. You know, I would never wish for a big stock correction but if one comes I sure as hell don’t want to be left having no protection. My TVIX purchase was almost a second thought this time though.
I just looked at that chart and said it’s time to buy. I have an odd feeling next week will bring the unexpected. Hopefully I am wrong but we should be prepared since corrections / crashes are a part of the market the same way peanut butter and jam belong in the same sandwich.
Agreed. I hope my house doesn’t burn down, but I still have home insurance, and I hope nothing bad happens on the global stage, but history shows me to be prepared. The volatility is so low because the stocks are charging higher again at break-neck speed with Oil. I just personally don’t see that as sustainable and expect correction to both in the near future. (not a crash per say, but if it did crash the volatility spike would make one a whole year’s return in just a week or so).
Volatility is more of wildcard position to cover the unexpected, but I typically only pick it up during complacent periods and lows. My only worry with using ETFs when they get this low is reverse splits, but if there is a decent spike I’ll take my winnings and go back to cash.
Always expect the unexpected…………CCF
US: North Korean missile launch a ‘catastrophic’ failure
FOSTER KLUG and HYUNG-JIN KIM,Associated Press 16 hours ago
North K..KIM DUNG…..should learn to shave before he starts picking a fight.
He should just step down and let his people enter the modern world, and get food.
Dictators don’t get the luxury of stepping down. They usually get shot, hung, decapitated, overthrown, jailed, driven out of the country or they see their entire family massacred from a far away place in exile. Kim’s fate is not going to be a pleasant end. I just know quitting is not one of his options.
That’s a good point. I don’t expect him to ever willingly step down. It will have to be a dramatic end or a movement of the people.
For now we’ll just have more stunts from megalomaniac with an inferiority complex shooting off missiles to show the world what a force N. Korea is.
obsession with the exercise of power, especially in the domination of others.
synonyms: delusions of grandeur, folie de grandeur, thirst/lust for power; More
delusion about one’s own power or importance (typically as a symptom of manic or paranoid disorder).
Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition……
good one…………. 🙂
I would love to see that top 10 silver list of yours?
I got a bit nervous on Friday and unloaded my Exeter shares I bought one week ago. Got a %25 pop and got off that elevator. Do you think I was crazy to do that? I’m thinking a pull back is in the cards for the PM space soon.
Hi Confused. Nobody ever got hurt taking a profit, but since Exeter is one of the good “optionality” plays on the price of the metals, then I’m not a fan of completely selling out of the position. I typically add or trim in 15-33% increments, so a 1/3 trim on a 25% pop is nice, but I’d have left 2/3 on in most instances. Now, if you feel there is a better opportunity in another stock to put those winnings, then that is a different conversation. As for the pullback, you may very well be correct, and then selling the rip will have been very wise. I would only caution that if there is a pullback next week, but a Mid-tier or Major announces they are buying Exeter, then their stock could still rally by 30-50% even in a down metals market.
Since you asked about the Top 10 Silver List, I’ll just repost it here. For clarification, these are just some of the top performers over the last 3 months, but they aren’t necessarily my top picks today. I have traded 6 of these but only own 3 of them:
TOP 10 SILVER PERFORMERS for the last 3 months.
January 15 – April 15 – Composite Bar Chart
Americas Silver Corp (USAPF) – up 472.50 % !!!!
SilverCrest Metals (SIL.V) – up 353.33 % !!!
Impact Silver (IPT.V) – up 332.00 % !!!
Canasil (CLZ.V) – up 322.22 % !!!
Excellon Resources (EXLLF) – up 306.88 % !!!
Silvercorp (SVMLF) – up 279.83 % !!
AZ Mining [Arizona Mining] (AZ.TO) – up 268.97 % !!
Coeur D Alene (CDE) – up 251.05 % !!
Alexco Resources (AXU) – up 228.62 % !!
Orex Minerals (REX.V) – up 203.45 % !!
nice list…………..could be time for a rest……..but, a good list of name to watch.
If, anyone was paying attention in DEC……..they made money…….. jmho
Agreed that some of these may take a rest. I’m actually trimming the tree in some, and looking at some of the more speculative explorers in the silver space like Dolly Varden (a Hecla take-out target), Kootenay (taking over Northhair Silver), Bayhorse Silver (2 previously producing mines that can expedite going into production due to the unique permitting in their jurisdiction), and I’ve mentioned a few times now Nicola Mining (previously Huldra Silver that went belly up on the last cycle building their mine and mill and only made it into production for a few months before putting it on care and maintenance, then going into credit protection for years, and recently emerging with their mine & mill. They’ll also pick up tolling agreements from other miners in the area & do soil reclamation work as another revenue stream).
Bear Creek Mining is also another fantastic Silver development company, but it has had quite a move, so I want a pullback before positioning in it.
Also Defiance Silver has an amazing property with prior producing mines adjacent and exploration going on. They also just did a capital raise.
Mines Management is finally moving forward with their project after being on hold for years.
Levon resources looks interesting and their Cordero project in Mexico is huge, they are debt free, and doing exploration work again. I expect a prefeasibility out later this year and want to get in front of that.
Mirasol Resources is one of Brent Cook’s favorites and they’ve been on the move lately.
I am pretty close to the management of Orex and Canasil. As is Cory. Great people. Certainly not disparaging any of the others.
Canasil and Orex have had quite impressive exploration discoveries in Mexico lately.
I also like that Gary Cope and their team have had success developing projects that have been bought out in the past, like their sale of Orko Silver Corp., to Coeur Mining.
I believe I first looked into Ork Silver because they were a sponsor here on the KER.
More than just sponsors. We are good friends with the entire Cope family and many of the management team. I am a current shareholder by the way!
It’s cool that they kept the names similar Orko and Orex.
When they sell Orex for another big score I hope the next company is Oreo!
Please tell Gary to keep up the great work. He’s one of the good guys out there!
I am sure that he will keep up his work Excelsior.
Excelsior Thanks for the list! I have been buying and selling Exeter for a few months taking 10-15% profits here and there and then repeating the process. I guess I felt a bit too exposed so I just sold it all out. Part of me is feeling/betting on a pullback in gold and silver next week but I probably will be proven wrong as it will probably head back to the $1260 range. A couple of Days ago Doc said he could see silver drop to the $15 level…which is at the bottom of the range. I am still holding my AZ and GPR but am getting a bit nervous. I have my stops in and am waiting. Patients is the key as Doc says. Thanks again!
Hi confused. That’s awesome on Exeter, and I responded to you somewhere else that nobody ever got hurt booking profits. Generally though I’d only sell a partial position in an “optionality” play, because even if miners pull back, if a Mid-Tier or Major buys them out, their share price could still spike 30-50%.
I’ve been a shareholder of Exter in the past myself, and believe it to be a great optionality play and takeover target. Yes, I have a small amount of Great Panther, but trimmed most of it down into the strength.
When/If Exeter pulls back I’ll probably grab a small position back in case they do get acquired.
Best of luck to you in your investing!
And, you too have a great weekend, Excelsior!
Cheers my good man! All the best to you sir.
On April 16, 2016 at 12:59 pm,
dw jones says:
wow, thanks for your time & assessment of the PM markets. I am overwhelmed. I certainly want to say that you’re dedication to helping people on this site is admirable & much appreciated. thx dw
this last comment was meant for excelsior (shad), thx again for your generous tutelage. some of us really need it.
Glad to share good ideas dw jones. I’m reminded of many good companies when I prepare those long-winded responses so it’s a win-win. If you have any companies that you are following or a subsectors (ie…mid-tiers, small producers, development companies, project generators, Jr explorers) that you believe will thrive, please throw those ideas up for discussion. It’s a big sector to keep tabs on.
Let’s all have a great April and may you do well in your investments.
Great comments Birdman. I am short gold at this moment as well.
Right on brother. I think that is the place to be now. It is definitely going against the gold-herd but how else can you maximize a bet? I was thinking I was pretty much alone on this site after listening to all the rah-rah-rah from some of the show hosts and guests the last few days and weeks. Weird how they see the charts completely differently. But that’s what makes a market. They get credit for sticking to their guns on the bull side but I often wonder if they trade according to what they are saying publicly or if they do something else. Don’t want to upset the sponsors, of course!
Thanks for an interesting show.
Deutsche Bank rigging of gold and silver markets tops the list of lies,manipulation,greed and power this week.
Nice to see Martin Armstrong and Jeffrey Christian getting exposed for their acts of same.
I missed the one on MARTIN A…….what was the highlights, and from whom?thanks
i didnt see it either, love to as I hold his theories in high regard.
Bobby…….let me know if you hear anything negative ,because I think Martin is a good listen to…………..thanks J.
Jeff C……is no surprise……be saying that for years……….
be to been……….
Guru’s…How do those free picks work out?
Great article on following the Gurus Bobby:
I thought their rankings at the bottom after weighing all the criteria were very telling:
Guru Forecasts Accuracy Guru Forecasts Accuracy
David Nassar 44 68.2% Trading Wire 69 47.8%
Ken Fisher 120 66.4% Don Hays 85 47.1%
Jack Schannep 63 65.6% James Stewart 115 47.0%
David Dreman 45 64.4% Richard Band 31 46.9%
James Oberweis 35 62.9% Jim Cramer 62 46.8%
Steve Sjuggerud 54 62.1% Gary D. Halbert 93 46.4%
Cabot Market Letter 50 60.4% Dennis Slothower 145 45.6%
Louis Navellier 152 60.0% Bill Cara 208 45.6%
Jason Kelly 126 59.7% Gary Savage 134 45.0%
Dan Sullivan 115 59.1% Marc Faber 164 44.6%
John Buckingham 17 58.8% Jeremy Grantham 40 44.2%
Richard Moroney 56 57.1% Tim Wood 182 43.8%
Aden Sisters 40 55.8% Jim Jubak 144 43.4%
Jon Markman 36 55.3% Martin Goldberg 109 43.1%
Carl Swenlin 128 54.9% Price Headley 352 42.0%
Bob Doll 161 54.7% Linda Schurman 57 41.4%
Paul Tracy 52 53.8% Donald Rowe 69 40.6%
Bob Brinker 44 53.3% Igor Greenwald 37 40.5%
Mark Arbeter 230 53.2% Nadeem Walayat 67 40.5%
Gary Kaltbaum 144 53.1% Bob Hoye 57 40.0%
Robert Drach 19 52.6% John Mauldin 211 39.9%
Don Luskin 201 52.0% Jim Puplava 43 39.5%
Laszlo Birinyi 27 51.9% Comstock Partners 224 37.9%
Tobin Smith 281 50.2% Bill Fleckenstein 148 37.3%
James Dines 39 50.0% Gary Shilling 41 36.6%
Ben Zacks 32 50.0% Richard Russell 168 36.5%
Doug Kass 186 49.2% Mike Paulenoff 12 35.7%
Richard Rhodes 42 48.8% Abby Joseph Cohen 56 35.1%
Bernie Schaeffer 81 48.8% Peter Eliades 29 34.5%
Clif Droke 100 48.6% Steven Jon Kaplan 104 32.1%
Stephen Leeb 27 48.3% Curt Hesler 97 32.1%
S&P Outlook 145 48.3% Robert McHugh 132 28.6%
Carl Futia 98 48.2% Steve Saville 35 23.7%
Charles Biderman 48 47.9% Robert Prechter 24 20.8%
So the range of accuracy from the Guru’s studied was 68.2% – 20.8%.
The ones at the top of the list with a 55-68% accuracy rates could make investors money.
I’m just boggled by the guru-chasers though. If the majority are right less than 50% of the time, then why would you want to pay money for their recommendations?
Well they did add the disclaimer that:
“This study is not a test of whether guru opinions and arguments are interesting, stimulating or useful in ways other than anticipating the behavior of the broad U.S. stock market.”
That is true and there is the philosophical and entertainment side of their newsletters that people enjoy I guess. However, there is a plethora of free editorials all over the internet, so I guess I still don’t get the fascination.
DITTO EX……….WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO PAY MONEY………..do your own dd.
If, you want to make a bet………bet against, PRECHTER, HOWE the Historian., CyclemanWOODS, PUPALA waste of time since PEAK OIL.
“Do the opposite” – George Costanza
GS…..ONLY AT 45%
I mentioned before , the double bottom call was the one that I thought he nailed.
Yep saw that. Par for the course with the gurus it appears….
LOL, good point OOTB — the surest bet on the list is to short Prechter!
I am not really sure just why you would want to pay some of them any fees, Excelsior.
They are no more accurate than the ordinary Joe Blow. Dent has been forecasting a Dow of 3000 to sell his subscriptions but now he fees so stupid he upped that to 6000 I believe which is also impossible.
Harry Dent forecasted in 2014 that the Dow would hit around 6000 in 2016. His advice was to protect yourself by shorting the market from s&p 1700. He owns no real estate as he thinks it is in a bubble so he has missed the big run in home prices for the past 20 years.
Couple of interesting opinions.
What exactly is Mr. Dent’s track record. I have never followed him. Should I?
He has quite a poor record but is a good salesman.
Paul I agree Harry Dent is wrong far more than most of the Gurus on that list above, which is a terrible record. He’s got to be in the 20-30% accuracy club. Why anyone gives anything he says one moment of thought is beyond me.
This passage from one of the articles you posted sums up why people would follow someone with such a poor accuracy rate. They want to believe they understand…..
Somewhere over the Rainbow
“Why do people listen to Harry Dent in light of his obvious inability to accurately predict the future? I believe it is because most of us want certainty, even when we know, logically, that it doesn’t exist. With investing it is a desire to believe that there’s someone who can protect us from bear markets and the devastating losses that can result. That leads to what we can call the “Wizard of Oz” effect. We come under the spell of wizards, authoritative voices who we are “trained” to take their words as truths. We want to believe that we can control things because as Woody Allen put it, otherwise “life is scarier.”
I am keeping this GURU RECORD……….putting it on “favorite section”…for quick reference later………… 🙂
That whole article Bobby posted is pretty interesting.
Makes you wonder what a Guru really is doesn’t it? Are they not supposed to offer an edge?
Anything at 50% and less is no better than casino odds. In other words your money is probably better spent buying a good book on trading or just enjoy a few dinners out each month.
But you have to line up their predictions against *actual* trading results. I imagine the numbers would drop further on that score. First you need to identify a trade and second there is the execution and timing of entry and exits.
We all know how hard that can be, A great set-up can sometimes result is losses if you mistime. That is sure the case on very short term trades as I know everyone here has experienced.
So why pay a guru at all if they can’t pull 75% of better?
Re: “So why pay a guru at all if they can’t pull 75% of better?”
I’ll tell you why, Birdman: Because nobody who’s been at it for many years can pull off 75% – three to five years, yes, but thirty to fifty? No way.
I love how the average retail investor sizes-up performance based on what they want and not what is realistic or even possible. The more calls you make, the more difficult it is to stay above 50%. If you find someone who’s been at it for forty years that has been right 55% of that entire time, you have a fantastic guru.
We are talking Gurus here, not average investors. And the time frame of the study was 5 years. During that period stocks have been continually rising (except for the most recent periods) while commodities were in a long bear market. Those were the major two trends. So it should not have been difficult to work within the parameters and made reasonable calls. I seriously doubt there is anyone who frequents this site that posts a similar trading success rate in the same range as the so-called experts. That is to say I doubt anyone here is doing worse than 75% on their own calls. Rick Ackerman for example claims a success rate of 95% on his trades and last time I bothered checking I was hitting on 85%. I find it difficult to imagine with all your investment of time you have done worse but correct me if I am wrong.
The website based its list on public comments about what these guys expect to happen. If Rick Ackerman or myself were sized-up the same way, I don’t think either of us would fare any better. However, if you look at actions taken based on the charts as setups unfold, we, and many on that list, would have a far higher success rate. I’m not the most qualified critic of trading methods but Rick’s seems like it would be at or near the top of the heap.
Although I trade a lot, I prefer to go big on speculative opportunities because it’s easier to be right over relatively short periods (months or years rather than decades) under the right conditions. Of course, money/risk management is everything.
The OLD GURU LIST……..back about 4 years ago……..there were 143 gurus who missed the TOP, and the roll over. SO much for gurus……………. .lol
THANKS BOBBY…………..great info
Okay; this is what I feel about Bird’s comments and others that believe this move up is overdone. I come solely from a technical perspective and what the technicals are suggesting as well. The monthly bullish declining wedge has not yet broken to the upside for gold although pricing for 3 straight months has been abutting up against the descending upper line. Personally I feel we’ll break that line to the upside in one of the months of this year. The PM stocks are acting differently from a technical aspect this past run. Many have broken above their daily 200 daily MAs and a large % are now above their 200 week MAs for the first time in years—that to me is a tremendous statement. However, the BBs are narrowing right now on the gold daily chart and gold is going to have to make a move to breakout either way in the near future. My CBI technical indicator has not yet failed me in the past and based on that, we break lower in the PMs. Having said that, I believe if that happens we move down to a low not exceeding the previous low we saw in December. That would probably dictate many of the PM stocks would then move into consolidation mode for a few weeks. The recovery for the PM stocks is not going to be similar to the recovery in 2009. All you have to do is look at the wide monthly price swings back in 2009 versus this time. People are getting all excited over a miniscule move in most of these stocks although those moves for some have been 100-300%. This is nothing compared to the 2009 time frame and it won’t be going forward. The PM stocks this time will see a smaller backing and filling then 2009 and it’ll be a gradual move higher for a number of months just as the bullion prices will most likely see a gradual higher. It’ll take at least another year before we start to see any real momentum in the bullion prices. We’re in a different ball game then 2009 and before. This is actually a dream scenario for the long term investor in that he can take a position in PM stocks and add in every pullback over time allowing his position to grow responsibly and % wise until the PM bull really starts to snort. It will require tremendous patience.
Thanks Doc! Put yourself out there man. I really appreciate that we can get some dialogue going on this topic (I just hate talking to myself in a vacuum and then being referred to as a “listener” by Cory after having published many thousands of comments in the past years). Like i am some goofball who just dropped in casually or something. What the hell is he smoking? Anyway, lets talk technicals. I agree with one aspect of your comments in particular. We are going to get another chance to buy into the sector should we see a strong pull back. Anybody saying that the bull left everyone behind is just talking crazy. We actually have a lot of time to get organized and take a second shot at the blue ribbon movers in the mine world. This is really good news to be honest, not a decline anyone should feel apprehensive about. Thanks for responding to my comments. Cheers!
No problem, bird—it’s really very simple; all one has to do is look at the rebound of the PM stocks in 2009 and compare it to this one. They’re light years apart in price swings. This one is a different “bird” and it’s pretty obvious. In fact, this one is better for the patient investor since over time he/she will make a lot more “coin” in this one then the previous one. It’ll allow him/her to be more fully invested by the time the bull really takes off as opposed to 2009 when no one could have timed the perfect bottom and been fully invested—I’ll bet most investors back then were eventually fully invested at much higher prices then we are today whereas the start of this PM stock move will allow everyone to be more fully invested at lower prices—the difference once again is how patient you’ll have to be for this one. By the way, I know Cory like a son and I can assure you he thinks highly of your comments and hardly considers you a “goofball”—I know that for a fact.
Great discussion on how there is time on this bull to get well positioned for all investors. It’s going to be a really fun ride over the next 3-5 years.
Doc what is your CBI indicator? I’m not familiar with that one.
Thanks Doc. I will have to apologize to Cory. Might have been feeling a little touchy that day.
Thanks for the “Bull” antidote!
Sure thing. I had more in the medicine bag but didn’t want to inject it all in one day in case I scared anyone!
BM, being fair to Cory If memory serves didn’t you once call yourself under one of your monikers ‘A listener’!!?
I forgot that one………….
was that before or after he quit for good……………… 🙂
just joking……..let us all be friends……… 🙂
I believe that he did Archdeacon. Cory is the last person in this world to ever by impolite!
Absolutely Al. I was reminded by an old school chum of our school motto way back in time: ‘Manners maketh man’….Clearly all those on KER are blessed with a similar ethos.
“Manners maketh man”, that is so very true!
Yup he did, now I know why.
I cant see taking a risk on a junior minor without the prospect of a 10 or 20 bagger.
Bobby, you might was to check out the HUI…..
was to want
Who fits that category
That’s funny. So you can’t see taking a risk unless it is a very high risk.
Yes Doc, as always thank you!
This time maybe different, FIC.
The precious metal market is rigged, and has been for decades.
Charts reflect what the market is and will be doing.
But what happens if the rules by which the game is played are forcibly changed?
Will the charts show this change as it happens or with a time lag?
I am not knowleable enough to know, but am cautious.
The U.S. economy is in trouble, as is that of most of the Western world; a consequence of Liberal/socialist policies which had never worked for any extended period of time, but are popular with stupid voters who like getting “freebies”. With a liberal media manipulating the news and its propaganda pervasive throughout this political Presidential season, I am amazed that intelligent people on this blog cannot see what is happening. I believe the Western world is being destroyed by this liberal propaganda. I believe that politics drives economics. I believe that ultimately all prices are determined ultimately by fundamentals, not by charts. Although charts are often the best way of predicting prices in the short-term; especially for those not having the inclination and time to follow all the fundamentals. Armstrong may have succeeded in computerizing fundamentals analysis by his cycles work maybe he is right – I am not smart enough to know.
I do suspect that politicians will try to prop the general market up through their next elections, regardless of whether those elections are this November in the U.S. or at other times in other countries, and in doing so may well take extra-constitutional measures in limiting money outside the banking system or even in unintentionally destroying the dollar. These actions may well be what is driving the price of precious metals as a safe harbor. Is the price of gold/silver determined by supply/demand on the COMEX or by manipulation by hedge funds or banksters, or will it be determined by the world market? I believe we are witnessing a change in fundamentals, right here in time, which I’m not sure chartist can pick up, because this time is different.
I know ! Be sceptical.
I completely agree with your comments about the western economies. Eventually there will be a huge bang!
You are probably right that stock markets will stay aloft until around the time of the elections CFS. That is if the collective will and efforts of the Government and Central Bank are enough to prevent outside forces from intruding on our economies in North America.
I am not sure anything can be done in the end to change our trajectory though.
The global outlook is not pretty so its just a matter of when we get that market correction we all sense is overdue. I do however side with Armstrong on his assertion that US equities and the dollar will rise into the default cycle as a safe haven response to disruptions overseas.
Once that begins then the concern over a correction is probably safely behind us for a few years at which time we will eventually arrive at the point of no return anyway. Don’t you just wonder what another few years of a rising stock market really means in terms of the eventual crash to correct it all back to realty again?
I sure do. And I don’t relish it for one second.
Right now I am awaiting signs that the credit bubble in China has reached its terminus and suspect we won’t have long to wait. It is factually in the process of happening already although markets outside Asia have not responded yet despite a plethora of disturbing signals that all is not well.
On the home front though worry is apparent in the hesitancy of the Fed to continue with a rate hiking cycle. It does matter what happens in China. Our future depends on how they behave and our economic outlook can rapidly deteriorate if the dreaded deflation impulse that is latent there is unleashed on the globe.
At this point I have fallen in with the camp that says there will not be further rate hikes before the US elections and thus no implied tightening or trigger event to tip markets down of create the conditions for a recession (that may already be here anyway).
Even I am wondering now if plans are not now in the works to introduce another emergency Quantitative Easing should China abruptly hit stall speed and land. We should not doubt that the recent flurry of meetings between the White House, Federal Reserve members and major Central Banks around the world are being undertaken to discuss options for fresh interventions in a worst case scenario.
What we do know is that capital controls are on the rise around the world and that has created impediments to trade, investment and freedoms that we have enjoyed until now. For example, where I am it is now illegal to send gold, silver or cash by courier!
Illegal meaning it is an offense punishable by fines and jail time. But this is just one example of how many countries are restricting the flow of capital (dollars) in and out of their own countries. China as you recall has an official cap of 50,000 dollars on funds that can be taken out by its citizens abroad.
Where this is all leading is anyone’s guess but with the G20 mandate to share information on taxes of its citizens and companies and the US instituting and enforcing the FATCA program here and abroad we can see that monitoring and controls on capital flow has gone mainstream across the globe.
Each of these peculiar changes is interesting but when we aggregate them with ideas of cash elimination, zero or negative rates, Helicopter money and CB infusions into domestic economies it makes a strange witches brew that simply amounts to a loss of freedoms for everyone.
That is enough to turn me back into a gold bug again after years of having sworn off the physical stuff. I have not actually bought gold and silver yet but cannot rule it out either anymore. So getting back to your first point above…..I would agree the rules are changing and it is not something most of us feel comfortable about.
Because there is no oasis of financial freedom remaining anywhere on earth. Not even in Africa anymore. We are all connected now.
I do believe the central bankers of the world are coordinating the hikes and quantitative easing, but the effects of tinkering with rates and money supply is having unexpected effects in these currency wars. Personally, I’d like to get more invested into Emerging Markets, but these currency fluctuations are so extreme, that it makes it hard to sort out if some of these countries around the world are going to sink or sail.
One minute things are turning around and the next minute things are nose-diving. One minute the currencies exchange rates are helping with input costs, but the next minute the inflation is hurting growth and consumer spending. One minute low oil prices are helping with travel, logistics, shipping, and the next minute they are killing the GDP of nations all over the world.
I can’t remember a time the currencies of the world were being so coordinated and were so intertwined.
Silver will tell the tale in this inflation vs deflation debate. If this is a real metals bull market, it will eventually outperform gold and most of the miners substantially. It’s the only asset in this sector I will own. Juniors are a huge gamble IMO.
I really doubt it can breakout above $18+ here, but still own physical. If it collapses here again with oil, deflation will prevail.
Still in June UVXY calls – still waiting for that so called “bubble phase breakout” in stocks for me to be proven wrong.
Silver:Gold has broken its short term downtrend that began in October and has been in an uptrend for over a month.
The weekly silver:gold chart looks very good.
Phyz first, majors, juniors, company specific ………per RICK RULE…
That’s good advice but I like to hold extra bullion instead of putting much in the seniors.
Which reminds me of another point for my critics. Did anyone besides me keep telling everyone here that the miners were going to be where it’s at, not bullion? I was sure of that last year and kept saying so when everyone hated them. Before the move up began, I also assured everyone that there would not be a saucer-shaped bottom/recovery in the miners – and that turned out to be an understatement.
Yep. The metals were a rounded bottom, while the miners were a V shaped.
No Freud jokes 🙂
For the record I’ve always been an advocate for the miners over the bullion for trading, and was very active in the miners last year and the beginning of this year.
As for long term storage, that is where bullion comes in, but it is more the insurance policy. The miners are for trading and speculation.
I guess the larger names in the mining space they could also be for longer term storage.
Yes, I know that there are a handful here, vocal or not, that have understood how exciting the situation was becoming for the miners. You and Brian are two of them.
I’m sure a few remember that I talked about the bullish big picture implications of the huge increase in volume many times.
As for bullion, I hold quite a bit of it precisely because I do not know everything and do not own a crystal ball.
Btw, I think it’s too early to say what kind of bottom bullion will put in from a bigger perspective. For example, the last time gold was 1600 was about two years, eight months ago. The saucer club implied that it would take about that long from the low to get back to that level – the summer of 2018. Since I do not believe that 2011 marked the final high, I do not believe gold will take anywhere near that long to get back to 1600.
When a move up starts, Matthew, it will probably be pretty step for awhile.
Agreed about the bigger perspective on the longer term monthly charts.
I was just remarking about the recent Dec bottom in Gold on the daily charts, and the Jan 19th V-shaped bottom in the miners.
From a larger perspective, I actually expect both the miners and metals to be irregular bottoming processes, where they whip saw quite a bit for the remainder of this year sloping upward towards year end. I agree with Doc that there will be other opportunities to average into stocks that people like throughout the year, but these initial gains coming out of the gate were the easiest gains due to the depressed prices.
I agree, Al.
Silver daily looks great (SLV) but might need to chop sideways for a few days.
Does anyone have an opinion on the best short PMs vehicle on the Canadian market?
Anything I have found has risk reward way out of balance, in comparison to the American options anyway.
They might be ok when a big fast drop occurs, a slow grind down is another matter.
b are there proxies for the US funds on the Canadian exchanges?
Here are the long and short ETFs and Funds that I’m aware of that may have Canadian proxies:
Symbol GOLD ETFs & Funds
DGL DBIQ OPTIMUM YLD GOLD INDEX EXCESS RETUR
DGP DOUBLE GOLD DOUBLE LONG
FSAGX FIDELITY SELECT GOLD PT
GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS TRUST
GDXJ MARKET VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS
GDXS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD MINERS
GLDX GLOBAL X GOLD EXPLORERS ETF
GLL PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD
GNT GAMCO NAT RES GOLD & INC TRST BY GABELLI
OPGSX OPPENHEIMER GOLD & SPECIAL MINERALS CL A
OUNZ VAN ECK MERK GOLD ETF
RING ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL GOLD MINERS
SGDJ SPROTT JUNIOR GOLD MINERS
SGDM SPROTT GOLD MINERS
SGGDX FIRST EAGLE GOLD FUND CLASS A
TGLDX TOCQUEVILLE GOLD FUND (THE)
UGLD VELOCITYSHS 3X LONG GOLD
UNWPX GLBL INVEST FD WRLD PRECIOUS MINERAL FD
USERX US GLOBAL GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS FUND
Maybe a few have equivalents that can be used.
The charts are showing gold with a bearish objective of 1171 now.
Paul L, I believe that Doc mentioned that last week during a Daily Editorial. I was actually a bit surprised, by the way.
Al, I’m not in that camp yet. I think the 1210 area will hold with a worst-case dip to 1190 being possible.
Fair enough, Matthew.
From Jack Chan on gold:
A topping pattern is in progress, caution is advised.
Long term – on a new major buy signal, ending the major sell signal from early 2012.
Short term – on mixed signals.
Gold sector cycle – up.
Once a bull market is confirmed in the gold sector, I will begin buying/accumulating at cycle bottoms as we did beginning in 2001.
What is Jack Chan’s Guru record?………better than 50%……..
I think it’s pretty good but I’ve never been a subscriber. I don’t disagree with what he see’s, I just think that the setup stands a good chance of being negated OR the pullback being abbreviated. The look of things for silver could do some “rescuing” right now.
I definitely agree that caution is advised.
That should be the new qualifier. Their “Guru Record” needs to be above 50%.
Jack Chan seems like a smart enough guy. I read his articles on Gold Eagle and Bob M. posts many of his articles on 321Gold.
Gold Price And Silver Price Updates
Jack Chan – April 9, 2016
The GURU RECORD NEEDS TO BE adopted……….anything lower than 51%…..forget it.
Kind of interesting that some of the biggest names we all know scored the worst. That implies to me that once they take a position publicly that they cannot back away from it and thus lose their ability to be flexible as circumstances change.
Beware the big name TV and media gurus!
That includes the likes of Peter Schiff.
Thanks Paul L!
This would be really helpful:
When someone posts an opinion on KER and references a chart as evidence, could you please post a link to the chart?
It is not really difficult.
Otherwise, I just tend to dismiss the post. Just me maybe?
Good idea. I like links to charts because a picture says a thousand words.
Many people are also visual learners. I know it helps me to SEE the moving averages, or prior peaks/troughs, or Fib retracement levels, or the MACD, or RSI……
The s&p made a lower low in Q1 of 1810 than the low in August of 1867. The 40 week is showing a rounding top. There is a possibility of another lower low but I doubt the central banks will allow that to happen. Chris Vermeulen is forecasting a 35 to 50% drop in the market. I doubt a correction that large could happen with manipulated markets. The drop may be limited to about 1950.
Per clive maund:
The latest gold COTs are out and they are an absolute horror story, with Commercial short and Large Spec long positions having ramped up to multi-year extremes, which we can take to mean that the dollar is not going to crash its support in the 93 area and will instead rally.
Morris Hubbart sees a Tiny Tim Rally to 96-97 in the US Dollar.
Apr 15, 2016
US Bonds, Dollar, & Stock Market Video Analysis
Here’s the full article, some of the charts, and the blue links are all Video segments that I watch every weekend. Enjoy!
Strong Buy Signal For Silver
Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
Morris Hubbartt – Apr 15, 2016
Thanks Ex! The SIL wow factor. It is kinda telling how silver looks so much stronger than gold right now. Something’s certainly changing…
Yep – Silver is playing catch up as are the silver miners. The chart for (XME) which is the base metals ETF looked interesting as well.
The very last video on individual stocks looked more positive for the gold miners he covered though Torex, Seabridge, McEwen, Golden Star, Endeavour, Gold Fields.
What I don’t really understand on this weekends wrap from him is how he expects the US dollar to bounce up to 96-97, but he expects UUP (Dollar bullish ETF) to crash ??
Does that makes sense?
THanks FOR the Post…………
CHARTSTER………..how do those charts look compared to yours………. ootb
Check my notes………..something has changed………….ootb
I agree with most of his stuff. I think silver will be much stronger than gold, but it might drop more than he thinks. His charts are really good tho.
Chartster……….thanks for the reply………And I agree with you on SILVER…. OOtb
Thanks for the link Excelsior.
I still think Morris Hubbartt would be an interesting guest from the technical side on the markets, the Dollar, the mining ETFs, and he tracks the miners inside of GDXJ.
I also think Doc should ask him how that “camtasia” program works that he uses to do video updates using the charts. This way doc could post pre-recorded videos with his technical analysis for us to follow along with.
Yup, the gold bulls are a bit premature. On the weekly spot gold and GLD chart the ADX Line shows gold heading south for at least 4 to 10 weeks (no upside potential). It looks like we are going to see the final washout in conjunction with a stock crash. Late May or June looks like “back up the truck time”.
Better to be early………early bird catches the worm…… 🙂
I missed a few miners, but there’s still time. This pullback or possible washout with a stock crash is the perfect storm to catch a nice bottom.
I agree Charster – gold and silver to drop for 6 to 8 or 10 weeks and that will be the buying opportunity for the miners IMPO.
I need to get a list together of the quality miners who have done well since January as I think most of them will fall considerably in the coming weeks. We will then be back to panic but I think the Fed and BOE/ECB/BOJ want inflation now.
I disagree Chartster,
Almost everyone appears short term bearish on PM’s ?
I think we will get another leg up before any sort of correction in price in the miners.
Excelsior published just such a list during the prior two weeks.
As Doc has said, “May and/or June will be interesting.”
MAY is always interesting in INDIANAPOLIS……..with the INDIANAPOLIS 500 ….the greatest race on earth…………… 🙂
Big year this year………..100th anniversary ………….
Interesting thought Chartster. That is similar to my own thinking that we get a stock market decline in conjunction with the miners selling off. In other words, the miners may actually be warning us that a wider problem is at hand, not that they will decline based on merely their own technical outlook.
That’s what I’ve been waiting for 🙂
BUT, do we sell all our gold/silver mining shares for a profit NOW and go back to cash… in the hope of getting back in in a month or two and start from scratch (with, admittedly, some good knowledge) OR, do we let what we have accumulated, ride down and just add to our positions. Hmmm…
Canadians get their own silver market-rigging class action suit against Deutsche et al
TORONTO — A class-action lawsuit seeking $1 billion in damages on behalf of Canadian investors was launched today in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice.
The class action alleges that the defendants, including The Bank of Nova Scotia, conspired to manipulate prices in the silver market under the guise of the benchmark fixing process, known as the London Silver Fixing, for a 15-year period.
It is further alleged that the defendants manipulated the bid-ask spreads of silver market instruments throughout the trading day to enhance their profits at the expense of the class. This alleged conduct affected not only those investors who bought and sold physical silver, but also those who bought and sold silver-related financial instruments.
Law enforcement and regulatory authorities in the United States, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom have active investigations into the defendants’ conduct in the precious metals market.
The case is on behalf of all persons in Canada who, between January 1, 1999, and August 14, 2014, transacted in a silver market instrument either directly or indirectly, including investors who participated in an investment or equity fund, mutual fund, hedge fund, pension fund or any other investment vehicle that transacted in a silver market instrument.
Potential class members can register on the website to obtain more information as the case progresses.
The plaintiffs and the proposed national class are being represented by a national team of lawyers from Sotos LLP http://www.gata.org/node/16384
That is more than a little interesting, thank you Markettofuture.
Avi’s gonna be pissed when he finds out the PM’s are really manipulated!!!
Bob M. might be too
Trust me this subject will be discussed!
Re: Farmer in Canada
Should that be African Farmer in Canada? Or Canadian Farmer in Africa?
I have a confusing life Ebolan. But the water is good here and there is hardly any electrio-magnetic fields that are usually found in developed countries around transmission lines and throughout cities.
Same with radio frequencies or the unstoppable bombardment of wireless signals and other forms of transmissions that some swear are turning us all stupid and causing brain cancer(!).
There is precious little lighting at night here and the majority of homes still have no appliances. Even in my house the ladies grind spices and flour the age old way with a pair of stones as has been done for millennia. I cannot stop them either. They just grew up with it and keep doing things the old fashioned way.
But to answer your question…its actually my wife who is the chicken farmer. I just eat the birds.
Hey Birdman. You sound like you’re electrosensitive. Correct?
There’s an awful lot of us these days.
Yes, I think I might be. I cannot stand to be in those giant urban malls for example.
My head just reels and I feel feint. No idea what that is about but I have long suspected its the electromagnetic field generated by all the devices and power running inside those bee hives of insanity.
Just a bad mixture of mobile phone shops, acres of wireless devices all pumping signal at once and layers of electrical cabling to power the computer, stereo and tech stores. Does it bother you a lot?
There is almost none of that where i live now. Zero except a single cell tower off in the distance and my personal laptop which is the only one in the entire neighborhood. I am other wise entirely free of electrical interference.
I think it helps my trading (it offsets all the booze at a minimum!)
Yep. You sound like you are.
I’ve been electrosensitive for 11 years. It’s a big problem.
I don’t have wireless, Bluetooth or cordless telephones (DECT) around me. I keep the cellphone away from the bed at night…
Some of these signals are very ‘bio-active’ with serious symptoms.
A growing problem. Gonna be the new asbestos…
You can by EMF blockers to wear, or to put over cell phones. I use both, but I’m affected by all the electric fields and am around technology most of the day.
Incredible Stockman Article
How can this possibly be correct?
“No wonder the Red Ponzi consumed more cement during three years (2011-2013) than did the US during the entire twentieth century. ”
“If you want an analogy, 6.6 gigatons of cement is 14.5 trillion pounds. The Hoover dam used about 1.8 billion pounds of cement. So in 3 years China consumed enough cement to build the Hoover dam 8,000 times over—-160 of them for every state in the union!”
Is Stockman still in China? If so I wonder if they let him out or keep him for a bit of political re-education. At least he seems to be staying at a very nice hotel.
The Entire Status Quo Is a Fraud
Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences.
This can’t be said politely: the entire status quo in America is a fraud.
The financial system is a fraud.
The political system is a fraud.
National Defense is a fraud.
The healthcare system is a fraud.
Higher education is a fraud.
The mainstream corporate media is a fraud.
Culture–from high to pop–is a fraud.
Need I go on?
We have come to accept fraud as standard operating practice in America, to the detriment of everything that was once worthy. why is this so?
One reason, which I outline in my book A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All, is that centralized hierarchies select for fraud and incompetence. Now that virtually every system in America is centralized or regulated by centralized hierarchies, every system in America is fraudulent and incompetent.
I wonder what Mr. Big Al Korelin things of this and that Stockman article?
Purely and simply. Mr Big Al completely agrees with you Eddie!
Mr. Big Al,
Did you get that nice new shiny 1040 filled out and filed? Remember, our government masters will have it no other way.
Just did mine and I truly feel like tax livestock being harvested to pay for our criminally, corrupt and evil government.
Good Nomi Prince interview
Eddie, is that another type or should that be Nomi Princess?
You type faster than you think.
China was very smart! They used fiat currency to build infrastructure before going on the gold standard. Now the rest of the world will be playing catch-up using gold backed money and having to be fiscally responsible. The Chinese aren’t stupid! But, there sure is some DAs in this country..
DITTO ON DAs…..or…….ditto atta……….
Chartster, I am not so sure that creating the worlds biggest bubble in everything was a particularly brilliant thing for the Chinese to do. They are given far too much credit for being patient forward thinkers in my opinion. As it stands they have created the circumstances for a mean reversion of all the development given that so much was done so quickly that every chart produced in China lately seems to be a parabola of one kind or another. The crash will be epic and last for decades.
First it was Turkey blackmailing Europe.
Now its Saudi Arabia blackmailing the US.
And all the while we all know they are the two countries arming & funding Isis.
Perhaps the west should just say to Putin..Hey pal do us a favour.
This is a must read………………………………………………..
I just believe it like, as seen on TV.
ignorance is strength…………… love it………..tin foil…………
I would call it a defense of those who do not want to believe the obvious.
Probably should simply join him!
I believe this is the reason Brexit will ultimately be chosen by referendum voters.
It is going to be an interesting summer in Europe.
CFS…The simple truth of the matter is , we don’t need parliament we are governed by Brussels.
On a side note..CFS…The three main parties are campaigning for us to stay in , & as you & I know a large number of UK citizens believe what these lying BASTARDS say.
UK people probably believe the politicians really have the best interest of UK citizens at heart, too!
How stupid they are becoming.
The best Government has the fewest layers of bureaucracy and is minimalist; democracy always collapses eventually due to insatiable greed of the populace. They demand much and end up with nothing but constraints and loss of liberty. The U.S. is just following with a few years delay.
Guest Post: “DeutscheBank Turns State’s Evidence; The Floodgates Are Now Open”, By Rory Hall of The Daily Coin
Rory called late Friday and asked for an interview. We were happy to oblige. The audio here is straightforward and presicent and I strongly encourage you to listen.
Thanks for the posts on this subject, Markedtofuture. It’s not something I’ve been following.
What a coincidence that it’s happening as silver is breaking out of a five year downtrend. Or is it? Charles Nenner (and David Gurwitz) often talk about the fact that the news that appears to be the driver of market action always shows up on schedule, as indicated by the cycles. So, as silver flies, the masses will think it’s due to the news when it was really preordained by the cycles.
I posted this chart somewhere above but it deserves to get posted again:
It’s positive that Silver broke above the channel trend-line and the descending wedge trend-line. Silver has been playing catch up……it’s just taken a while to get things going.
Yes, it’s taken awhile to breakout but the breakout just happened so the significance of the breakout can’t be assessed yet. I think the action is going to surprise more than a few people.
That is a throw over, not a breakout. It won’t hold either. Silver is done like a roast chicken for now.
A throw over not a breakout?! You’re a funny guy.
I know! Everyone tells me that.
They’re not wrong!
Did you factor in the meeting that Obama had with the big banks when gold hit 1900 and they began to naked short the paper market?
Your post on lithium yesterday about most people on focusing on battery usage is true.
There is a rather large component of lithium used everyday in ceramics.
I use it every work day (mixed with other components) in a molten form (above 1000 deg.C) both under vacuum & pressure.
That said…I still feel it will be the 1st commodity bubble to blow.
Thanks Skeeta. You have brought up a valid concern as everyone remembers the Lithium, Graphite, and Rare Earth bubbles popping from a few years ago. I was active in the Lithium and Rare Earth bubbles back in 2010-2012, and they were full of a lot of hot air. That doesn’t mean that there wasn’t money to be made, or legitimate deposits being discovered, but the price spikes and business plans based on those commodities prices were unrealistic and unsustainable. As a result they came crashing down hard.
With that perspective and experience in mind, there is no doubt that Lithium is getting frothy, and some of the hot air has returned. The Lithium price has shot up a bit too fast and too much. However, while I do expect the Lithium price to come back down some, there is real demand pressure and production shortfalls projected over the next few years that were not present in the last bubble (even if there was never another Electric Car made and Tesla closed tomorrow…… but that is very unlikely).
The problem, just like in Gold mining, is that there are many explorers jumping on the bandwagon (over 23 on my last count) that are likely NEVER going to make it into production, and they’ll probably get flushed or change business branding again in the next 1-2 years. It’s a shame investors are getting duped with their marketing stories.
Each week I dedicate time to a few key areas of focus, and I really never stopped following the Lithium sector, because batteries are in everything from my phone to computer to power tools to Airlines and forklifts. The movement to electric vehicles is also happening and will happen one way or the other. The big risk to the Lithium sector isn’t Tesla failing or cheap oil prices, but rather some other superior technology coming along that would make Lithium batteries obsolete. That is my only going concern.
Personally, I am interested in the “Best in Class” in many of the smaller commodity and energy sectors like Uranium, Renewable Energy, Lithium, Graphite, Zinc, Copper, PGMs, Base Metals, and Specialty Metals. There have to be a few companies pulling this stuff out of the ground, and its a growing and changing world out there. In every sector, there are still a few good ideas, good management teams, and companies doing the right thing (bear market or bull market).
My goal has not been to hype the Lithium sector any more that it already has been, but to report back on the companies that may actually be winners, and that investors could get positioned in to make money (frothy or not). I’ve kept my eye on companies like Orocobre, Galaxy Resources and Lithium Americas Corp for about 4-5 years now and have posted on all of them for years here on KER. (nobody gave a rats behind about them a few years ago, but now there is much more feedback on the sector because the news-flow and pricing spikes justify the interest…….Lithium is seen as just a Flavor of the month….but it appears here to stay)
The reason I have consistently promoted those 3 companies for years, and ignored most of the over-hyped explorers or fluff marketing companies is that those 3 are real companies, moving their projects forward, and they are the best in class.
In the time I have posted about them and offered commentary, news releases, and reasons they had many advantages over their peers, 2 of them have gone into production for Lithium and one of them has gone into production for their organoclay additives, and is fast tracking into Lithium production. I’d say to nail the 3 companies that would go from explorers, to developers, to producers accurately in the mining business was a pretty good call. (most companies will never make it into production). The other goal was for investors to be aware of this changing sector, and if people would have listened they would have made between 150-900% on those 3 companies over the last year or two, and about 50-300% in the last 6 months.
I’ve also mentioned Neo-Metals (RDRUY) recently, because they are going into production later this year, have a 14% stake in the Galaxy Resources brand new production, and they seem to be a legitimate company with a bright future.
The other 2 companies (Pure Energy Minerals & Nemaska Lithium) I have only started discussing since 2015. They are not as solid as the other 3 mentioned, but compared to their peers, they are near existing mines, in stable jurisdictions, have defined resources, and are moving forward with permitting, Feasibility Studies, and have started attracting off-take agreements. I did mention the other 20+ companies and the battery companies on Doc’s blog to at least expose investors to their names in case any become takeout targets or push forward with any successes.
As for Lithium Demand.
Yes about 25% of the demand for Lithium comes from ceramics and glass manufacturing, and that percentage has stayed fairly constant, but the demand still continues to grow due to the rising world population and development going on all over the planet in emerging economies.
My main gripe is that so many people just look at Tesla or Electric Vehicles and snub their nose at the whole Lithium space, without really understanding the Lithium Battery marketplace. These people, even veterans in the mining sector neglect to cover the huge impact that BACKUP BATTERIES will have for storing the energy created in Solar & Wind base load power. They also seem to have missed the fact that many corporations are starting to operate using back up power at remote sites, for disaster recovery, and to handle energy created by their private solar and wind farms. I can’t remember one “expert” discuss these demand fundamentals in the Lithium story when it gets trashed on many of these precious metals outlets or even in the main-stream media’s fascination with Tesla.
What this means is that there is a growing Lithium demand for batteries even if electric cars don’t take off. The Renewable Energy sector stores its energy during peak performance in Batteries, so that it can provide stable power in off-peak times. People scoff at that sector as well, and there are challenges in it like any sector, but it is happening with their knowledge and without their permission 🙂
Then there is the entire developing world that will want smartphones / laptops/ tablets/ remote control toys like RC cars, RC planes, RC helicopters, and RC drones. Then there is the Lithium batteries being utilized in the Airline industries, or for powering tow-motors and forklifts in Warehousing, or Power Tools and on and on…. I got out an electric drill to fix something today and checked; yep, a Lithium battery.
When one digs a bit deeper, they will find out that there are multiple drivers for Lithium Demand. The Renewable Energy sector is actually growing very fast, and all our gadgets in the modern world, for now, run on Lithium power.
– So will the Lithium run correct? Very likely.
– Are most of the Lithium stocks garbage? Yes.
– Are investors misinformed? Yes, on both sides of the argument.
> Lithium bulls are doing what Gold bulls so often do and just shoveling money at any name or any project with the word Lithium in its name or that a newsletter tells them to.
> Lithium bears doubt Tesla or Electric cars, or simply cite the last bubble and assume they have it all figured out. They don’t understand backup batteries used in Industry or in Renewable Energy. They simply won’t acknowledge that the carbon taxes and environment pressures in politics are forcing the hand of countries to develop renewable energy.
These energy or commodity “experts” don’t understand the Ceramics & Glass growing demand and never talk about it. These “experts” don’t understand warehousing and the Lithium batteries powering tow motors or forklifts, they forget about phones / laptops / tablets / power tools / RC toys / Drones / Airlines, and all the other areas batteries show up. The emerging world will only want more of these things, and that underpins this energy source.
Is Lithium a Bubble? No.
– A bubble implies the demand will peak and crash and nobody will want the inventory for a long time. That is simply not the case.
In about 1-2 years we’ll have a handful of real Lithium mines that are developed and will meet the supply needs of the planet. I’ve mentioned the 6 I think will still be around. As for the rest, it is not as likely, but maybe Lithium X, Dajin Resources, Bacanora, Houston Lake, or Critical Elements Corp may make it or get bought.
What is Lithium Carbonate?
A brief overview of lithium carbonate and its uses.
Teresa Matich • April 6, 2016
5 Top TSX Stocks: Almaden and Lithium Americas Corp Up Over 50 Percent
Other top gainers last week were Newmarket Gold, GoGold Resources and Arizona Mining
Charlotte McLeod • April 10, 2016
Lithium Brine Deposits
Here’s a brief overview of the different types of lithium deposits.
Melissa Pistilli • April 13, 2016
“Two of the world’s leading lithium producers, Sociedad Quimica y Minera (NYSE:SQM) and Albemarle, operate on the Salar de Atacama.”
“FMC (NYSE:FMC) produces lithium carbonate from another world-class lithium brine deposit, Argentina’s Salar del Hombre Muerto.”
“Orocobre (ASX:ORE) is currently ramping up production at its operations on the neighboring Salar de Olaroz. Most recently, the company reported production of 2,332 tonnes of lithium carbonate for Q1 of 2016, in line with its ~2,400 tonne guidance.”
“Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) recently restarted mining activities at its Mt Cattlin hard rock lithium mine in Australia, but it also holds the Sal de Vida project in Northwestern Argentina.”
On the junior side of things, Li3 Energy (OTCBB:LIEG) holds the Maricunga project on the Salar de Maricunga in Northern Chile.
“Lithium brine deposits have gained more and more interest as of late on the back of a veritable lithium rush in Nevada, largely driven by Tesla Motors’ (NASDAQ:TSLA) lithium-ion battery gigafactory that’s currently under construction in the state. Nevada is also home to Albemarle’s (NYSE:ALB) silver peak lithium mine, the only producing lithium brine operation in the US.”
Examples of other companies advancing lithium brine deposits in Nevada include:
Dajin Resources (TSXV:DJI,OTCMKTS:DJIFF), which holds the Teels Marsh and Alkali Lake projects.
Nevada Energy Metals (TSXV:BFF,OTC Pink:SSLMF), which has an option to earn in on Alkali Lake.
Pure Energy Minerals (TSXV:PE), which is advancing the Clayton Valley lithium project in Esmerelda County.
Lithium X (TSXV:LIX), launched late last year, which holds the Sal de los Angeles project as well as claims in Nevada’s Clayton Valley.
Im interested in Timmins gold corp TMM.TO
It got hammered lately but seems to begin an upward move. Im still conserned about the debt they have to Sprott. It has a lot of gold in the ground and maybe its too undervalued.
Here is a chart and a brief discussion of Timmins from Gold Tent. I do not own the stock.
I watch TMM off and on, I made a bundle with it some years ago.
Dont take what Im saying as a “for sure”.
imo, should we get a drop across the board in PMs again, TMM will go down with the herd.
Providing the better buying opportunity.
You could be correct. I just thought that seeing the large time-scale of TImmins, and how much it has dropped from the 2011 highs, is eye-opening.
Look at what is going on in Finland folks –
I’ve never seen anyone who is supposed to be in tune with what is going on in the Republican Party (Sanders) get it so completely wrong.
We’ve got a GOP we voted into office who campaigned on “No, never, shutdown” and then ….NOTHING. “No” on illegal immigration and it hasn’t stopped. GOP is letting Obama get away with re-writing the laws. “Never” on Obamacare and then….again nothing has happened.
People are tired of being suckerpunched by the GOP who say they are going to do one thing and do the exact opposite. The GOP rolled over and caved on so many things in the last budget that we are all STUNNED.
If there is any posturing that indicates negativism in the Repub Senators and House members, it’s all for show. And the grassroots have finally had enough of it.
“YOU ARE A DEN OF VIPERS AND THIEVES” — Andrew Jackson
“The Federal Reserve is one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever seen“.
– Congressman Louis T. McFadden, who was assassinated
The link I posted starts at pretty much the beginning, for modern times anyway.
If a person wanted to he could actually go back to Julius Ceaser about 40 years before the warning from Jesus.
But I found the beginning of the Bank of England to be a good point to start.
IF, the people have had enough, (maybe they have?) it might be an idea to understand what they are opposing.
That link puts alot of pieces together.
A Timely Discussion With Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver
they discuss the price fixing in gold and silver.
The memory and attention span of many grows shorter, but for some fossils like myself remember Deuschebank in financial difficulty, trying to Palm off non-performing assets. DB , as most folks know, has impossibly large potential derivatives exposure. So, perhaps, this mea culpe of pleading guilty to price-fixing hides some other deeper purpose.
Could the bank’s apparent cooperation, for instance, be designed to bring down some competing banks? I.e. Reducing competition.
Here are the details on the lawsuit.
In re: London Silver Fixing Ltd. – Antitrust Litigation
Our resident legal expert, California Lawyer, has taken time to completely annotate the legal documents surrounding the DeutscheBank civil settlements in the gold and silver price manipulation case. Please be sure to review this entire public thread.
Thanks, markedtofuture. What a read!
I assume we don’t know who the other banks are yet – the ones that DB said that it would name?
I was about to buy a London based bank, whose SP has fallen dramatically in the past year, but I am suspect that they will be named and, in due course, a big fine will be forthcoming.
I wonder whether these banks will also be open to lawsuits from those who will claim that the manipulation has cost them money?
Part of what Bob Kirby said on USAWatchdog.com was:
What have the President and the VP been told by the Fed Chairman in these emergency meetings this week? Kirby says, “My guess is they are probably explaining to them just how deep the pooh is that they are about to be thrown into. It’s deep, and it’s going to be over their heads. . . . Historically, when banks have nothing else they can do, they take us to war.”
If they don’t take us to war? Kirby says, “Everything is on the table. . . . My thinking is there are an awful lot of U.S. dollars out there right now that are going to be coming home to America. . . . The adjustment in global reserve accounts could create a tsunami of dollars coming back to America in a very, very short period of time. That could trigger something approaching a hyperinflationary event or, at least, stagflation and super inflationary pressure. That’s the minimum occurring very, very soon.”
About the recent revelation of Deutsche Bank suppressing the price of physical gold and silver? Kirby points out, “The price rigging ultimately comes back to and will be shown that it really is an operation of the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Federal Reserve. . . . The short interests, or the paper sales of precious metals, have been used on purpose to suppress the growing demand for precious metals, or to make it appear that people are still happy with dollars and don’t prefer precious metals to dollars. . . . Whether the U.S. central bank declares that gold or silver are not money in some hubris filled silliness doesn’t diminish the fact that gold and silver are money, and your U.S. Constitution says gold and silver are money.”
This is interesting inasmuch as it indicates iminent crisis…..a few weeks.
Certainly, IMHO, the U.S. is not capable of seriously going to war, so is the monetary system collapse coming before summer?
This has implications for investors!
Can one actually wait for a drop in PMs?
Rob Kirby and Dr Janda live 3-5pm ET
Today’s show will be a must listen…. the podcast will not be available until Tuesday….. you WANT this information before Tuesday. Our financial system is in deep trouble and quickly going to become worse. There is a reason The Fed had at LEAST 3 unscheduled meetings last week and Obama summoned the Head of the Fed to the White House last week.
Dial in at WAAM Talk 1600 from 3-5 Eastern….. Stream at davejanda.com or TuneIn radio Ap. on your hand held and search for WAAM.
With both the Big Zero and the VP present to with Janet, then TWO extra meetings of the Federal Reserve board, last week there HAS to be an imminent problem.
My conclusion has to that the Doc is wrong in his feelings that gold and silver might drop before the TAKEOFF.
I’m not 100% sure, but I cannot seem to find any alternative conclusion.
With the Shanghai gold exchange starting on this Tuesday, is that the cause of the urgency of the Fed/government meetings?
I have to assume, it may be.
Yes something big going down CFS.
Its China boys. I have a chart that says the land of the emperors is going to blow a fuse within months. We are talking a hard landing now so it won’t be graceful and that means European banks are in trouble as they are in deep with loans. A US and Japan led bailout of Europe’s troubled financial sector is a distinct possibility. But there is nothing that can be done for China itself. They will have to clear the decks and mop up their own ship themselves. A stock marker crash is a very real possibility on our end. I loathe the idea but feel a nasty correction is in the offing.
Sorry for the bad news.
I don’t think it is just Chinw, Birdman.
They have over $2trillion in reserves, despite buying up gold and mines and land.
This is an American problem!
And it’s coming soon.
It was 3.2 trillion last I check but lets not quibble over such amounts!
Those reserves are actually peanuts relative to the scope of the problem CFS. I mean to say they are entirely inadequate for the government there with a population in excess of 1.3 billion people, to defend the currency never mind continue a global buying spree of assets.
Nor can they use it to add to gold reserves if the excess runs out, to continue the expansion into Africa, to keep growing their military, to support a huge raft of new social programs at home, deal with mammoth unemployment that is certain to be coming and then simultaneously support their banks and credit markets.
I am hardly doing justice to the number of demands that money will never be diverted too. And keep in mind it is widely accepted that China needs a minimum of 2 trillion just to function as a revolving line to keep the doors open on its economy.
This is all a very big problem for a nation that does not yet offer the equivalent in volumes of US Treasuries on the open market so borrowing by China once this ball of cotton unravels is going to be very difficult.
We are looking at something much worse than a Japanese lost decade once its over and I will speculate it will take double that time for a recovery given the extent of the credit bubble that has been blown.
Between now and then we can only wonder if the Communist Party will even survive. It is going to be very ugly. and that small pile of foreign exchange is not going to help.
Like I have said many times CFS…..they ca only spend it once. Then what?
Listened to Kirby 3X CFS to try and filter out any noise….couldn’t find any.
You listened to him three times? You must be a saint!
I am BM I am!!
I actually believe you Reverend. No doubts at all.
I’m listening to Kirby live on WAAM right now.
They have failed to reach and agreement in Doha. The market and oil should start tumbling now. I was on the sidelines having sold all my oil positions. Can start bargain hunting soon. Hopefully volatility will spike.
Global oil producers meeting disrupted by U.S. and Iran
AP April 17, 2016, 7:32 AM
They could not possibly have accomplished such a complex agreement in one day. They would have to spend 2 weeks or more on this if the Saudis were serious. Their objective of bankrupting high cost producers has not yet been accomplished so they may be all talk with no intention of making any agreement.
I know – I’ve been pretty vocal that there would be no deal, Iran already said the last 2 weeks they would not freeze production, and even if Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to freeze they are both at record production levels. The world is awash in oil.
The meeting was NOT disrupted by US or Iran!
It was ignored.
We all knew no agreement is possible!
Right. That is not how they have reported on other sites. US and Iran were not to be involved in it from the start.
Yes, there were articles out all last week that said both the US and Canada were not attending, and that Iran would not freeze. I don’t know why the main stream media is blaming the “disruption” on the US and Iran.
The average investing marketplace have rocks in their heads…..clueless…..
Was Canada even invited? Was England, Norway or the US?
I don’t know I just remember reading an article last week that said the US and Canada would not be attending, and the Mexico was only going to listen….
I’m just not sure why it was disruptive that the US didn’t attend. I should have put the disclaimer on that new post that it was for comic relief and shows just how divorced from reality the Oil market had gotten lately.
What a surprise! 🙂
Time for Oil to tank while most of it is crammed into tankers. Tanks-a -ot Doha meeting…
that should have said Tanks-A-Lot……. (screwed up my own sarcasm) 😉
The vix will maybe start to sing again with oil to somewhere below $35 and finally an overdue market correction.
I sure hope the VIX starts singing, I’ve got a nice little position in TVIX that I’d like to see take a ride……
Might be a bit of a wait though. Its already up a little but you just never know when it breaks out in a surprise like that time you were holding and it spiked up 50% in a day or two. Can’t win if you are not positioned ahead of time!
Agreed. Ya gotta be in it to win it.
+1 CFS – Agreed! This latest Oil rally was all predicated on hot air and talk. There was never going to be anything fruitful coming out of this meeting.
Saudis hate Persians. Always bear that in mind.
Yes, I doubt they would agree on a policy even if it was in both their own good just because of the long-standing rivalries. I’m going to get some popcorn and watch the faces on the lame-stream media react to this with surprise anyway as Oil will likely fall out of bed now.
Big Al – I just saw you got some press on the article covering the history of KITCO.
What is Kitco News?
Now a respected source of information on the base and precious metals markets, Kitco was started by a university student with a $700 loan.
Teresa Matich • March 30, 2016
“I wanted to do something different than the typical type of student job,” Kitner told Al Korelin of the Korelin Economics Report in a 2011 interview. “My dad was in the jewellery business, and he knew about the gold business a little bit, so he gave me the idea of going to jewellery stores, buying scrap gold, sending it off to the refineries, getting back pure gold, selling it back to the jewellery trade.”
“The website was really just excuse to have something fun to do with computers,” he told Korelin. Initially, Kitner had planned to use BBS systems to share quotes on metals prices. However, when the web started to gain traction — making BBS systems obsolete — he opted to build a website instead.
Who needs terrorists?
British Airways, Geneva to Heathrow, hits drone on approach to landing.
Not much damage, except to drone!
Or perhaps new terrorism?
New 1/4 gm aurums on sale at greatly reduced premiums to original 1/10 gm note. Worth a small punt if only for novelty purposes. Yes?
Kirby is talking about jailing the CFTC Regulators, who found no commodity price fixing after five years of investigation.
Kirby say financial crisis imminent; probably less than month away.
Believes dollar reserve status ending, …… NOW.,…. Next week.
Thanks for that, CFS. To me, Kirby is credible – that is, he’s competent and honest.
The weekly and monthly dollar charts do not conflict with his outlook.
There ya go. We have an “LOL” from someone who is not credible at all AND who defends Hillary. Perfect. Kirby looks even better now.
If I was American I would be on Hillary’s team in 10 seconds flat. No question about it.
Well that is consistent with the kind of guy you are, no doubt about that.
I just love Hillary. What can I say buddy. She is the only one qualified for the office. All the exaggerations and hype about her server are just political noise so I don’t listen to it anymore. That is just gold-blog propaganda. Her adversaries will seize on anything to try and ruin her chances at the White House. But that’s just the usual bad politics and we all know it.
Who do you endorse? I mean besides the “nobody for president” option that anarchists like you would prefer?
Hillary………needs to go bake some cookies for her kid and grandkids…..
Matthew – did you happen to check out the Morris Hubbart videos posted up above?
He sees a bounce in the US dollar up to $.96-$.97, but simultaneously sees a selloff in UUP and thinks it may crash. I was having a hard time understanding how both of those trajectories can happen in tandem. Can the US dollar jump up .03-.04 while UUP sells off?
I will watch it now.
Ok, there’s no conflict with what Morris sees for UUP/USD. The confusion is due to the fact that he was talking about the daily chart when discussing the dollar and the weekly chart when discussing UUP. In other words, he sees a rally for UUP and USD short term and a fall for both medium term.
Got it. Thanks. I didn’t catch the daily versus the weekly. Shorter term / mid term.
Why is silver behaving differently from gold?
Indian silver demand was so strong this year, that it produced a significant drawdown of U.K. silver inventories. Matter-a-fact, India had to access silver from China and Russia because available supplies from the U.K. were not sufficient.
This, I believe is the primary reason, both for the difference in goals/silver behavior AND the Deuschebank surrender…..DB knew the game was over.
If the Fed believes that gold/silver price suppression is no longer possible AND DB is about to blow up, is it thinking this could collapse the monetary system?
Or is it just concerned about the US dollar’s loss of reserve status?
Did the Big Zero summon Janet to the Whitehouse, OR was it Janet who called for the meeting?
I suspect it was Yellen, who suspecting imminent major problems called for the meeting.
Now, how do move my cash out of harm’s way?
So Gary Savage is dissing me over on his site today. Kind of figures since I have been busy getting him riled up for quite awhile. Anyway, he has come up with the silliest chart I have seen in a long time although I can see how an amateur might buy into it.
Not to bother too much with this tonight but I will offer him an answer here since he is blocking me over there.
Gary…you have drawn your chart incorrectly. The technical case I am making is based on the channel line that begins from August 2013. I specifically referred to the five year chart and that line on the shorter chart takes first precedence over your upper boundary based off the point of the absolute peak for the HUI.
If however you want to quibble a little I would suggest you try to redrawing the chart using the nearest peak after the absolute highs which came in November 2011.
By coincidence that upper boundary channel meets almost perfectly with the price on the HUI chart today. Actually…it is not a coincidence but that’s another story.
So in fact there are two lines that intersect with current price and support my case that the HUI has topped out and if you give this a little time you will see my analysis is correct. I suggest you take a strategic short position because it is not known how deeply gold and the miners will fall in the coming months.
Gold and gold miners remain in a BEAR MARKET. There has NOT been a breakout yet.
My projections is that we will see a 100% retrace back to the bottom and we then move on to lower lows for both gold and the HUI. Jeffrey Currie at Goldman happens to agree with me btw. I saw today he is also calling for new lows in gold by the end of 2016.
So I am in very good company. Good luck with your thesis. I think however that you will soon be proven quite wrong.
By the way Gare, I didn’t miss this run in gold. I called it for God’s sake. Check the December posts you nitwit. It was incidentally my ONLY bottom call on gold. Unlike your 4 or 5 premature “final bottoms” last year.
Your record stinks!
He just published the most ridiculous article I have seen claiming that QE3 caused the crash in gold. But, if you look back at what he said when it was announced, he was quite bullish metals BECAUSE of QE3.
This is intellectual dishonesty at its best, and we have a front row seat.
Hey Avi, hope all is well. I had not seen that article you mention so I will take a look.
Probably tomorrow though. I am worn out and its the middle of the night here. There must be a hundred dogs all barking at once in my neighborhood. Usually that means the Hyenas are on the prowl. Reminds me I better get my cats in or they will be safari dinner for the local wildlife.
Anyway, I agree with you. I kind of get a laugh about how Gary draws his charts to make his case believable. But he is only fooling himself. Did you read his comments in his comment section today?
“I’m the only one who understands what is happening in the markets. My comments are valuable to people who actually want to make money. All he’s (Al Korelin) done is lose a valuable resource and the only person who understands cycle analysis and why and when market interventions are occurring”. ~~ Gary Savage
I just about split my gut laughing when I read that!!!! Yeah, he’s the ONLY one who understands what is happening in the markets! Ha ha ha ha! What an egomaniac. Maybe he did not read today that he was ranked at a mere 45% on his market calls versus 65 other so-called Gurus.
Like I said before….casino odds. But he is from Nevada after all. Sheesh!
Whew…..crash in crude in progress. Down 7% off the open.
Makes sense to me. Doha news is finally settling in with investors as Duhh news….
VIX is moving on up Shad. Good news for us. You still holding your crude short from last week?
Yes, bring on the volatility!!
As for the Oil short, I went flat at the end of last week. Thinking about going in during the pre-market trading hours and seeing how things look. I just have to be careful because I’ll be at airports and flying tomorrow which makes it more difficult to keep tabs on things. It is very likely that this double-top in Oil around the $42 level will cause Oil to pull back most of the week though.
Exactly Shad. This is not going to be over in a day. We will have at least this week for WTI to move back to major support and probably some of next week as well. I honestly believe we are going to break below the lows later in the year and could see 20 dollar crude eventually.
And I am so happy I sold Chesapeake when I did. Whew!!
Oil gapped down, but may go up and fill that gap some before rolling over.
That was regarding the hourly chart, but you can see it on the daily as well. Check out the 1 minute chart for all the twists and turns in Oil’s adventure…..
Actually the 5 minute chart is the easiest on the eyes with more candlesticks than the hourly but not some much noise as the 1 minute chart…..
Probably. Its still early. The YEN gapped too and is already back filling a bit. I am happily short oil for today anyway and hope to keep holding all week. If this keeps up I will be batting perfect home runs on everything this month…..but I am not there yet.
I just happened to be up getting ready for a travel day and checked and Oil just filled that that gap. I’m probably going to short Oil when the pre-market trading opens up but I’ll have to give it another look in a few hours.
See how the VIX is forming a cup on this hourly chart Shad? And also on the daily chart how it appears the falling trend has ended and will begin to rise again? That’s why I bought it. The VIX won’t likely fall any lower than it already has although when it actually makes its move is anyone’s guess. I may add to the position again this week depending on how that cup plays out. But we never know. The chart could just trade sideways for weeks yet so we need to give ourselves time.
VIX on hourly chart — FINVI.com
Yes, it does look like a cup & handle or saucer formation in the VIX. I’m ready for some volatility this week and bought 2 tiers of TVIX at $4.059 and $4.00.
As for Oil it has not only filled the gap, but has rallied up to $40.55. DWTI is $10 more this morning than it was on Friday at the exact same Oil price, so until that arbitrage is worked off I’m waiting to go short, but likely will this morning.
Gotta run catch a flight. Good luck trading this week.
So I did short Oil at $128.01, and bought more TVIX a t $3.75.
This was the BEST weekend show in ages.
Hey Matthew, maybe now is a great time for you to bring up all those charts of yours about how great looking the Canadian dollar is. How are those pitchforks working for you buddy?
Would you mind elaborating? It hit my target while everyone (including Ross Clark) was too bearish.
The daily chart is mixed but it remains more bullish than bearish along with the weekly chart.
If only you’d put some of your vast time into learning something new for a change instead of always pretending to be an expert…
Re: the media fooling the general public by propaganda.
Trump is unelectable.
The liberal media IS PROMOTING him, because they believe he cannot win
Don’t believe me?
Look up the latest ABC pole numbers on favorability.
Whie males don’t mind him, but look at Trump’s unfavorable numbers for the following groups:
Independents: 64% unfavorable
White females: 67%
White college grads: 74%
18-30 year olds: 80%
African Americans: 84%
The Presidential election is being controlled by liberal media propaganda, folks.
As a conservative, I’m actually pleased the a Democrat might win.
Because, the system collapse will probably be so bad that after that it might be a generation before another left-leaning crook/nutcase is elected President.
“The trouble is that the stupid people–who constitute the grand overwhelming majority of this and all other nations–do believe and are moulded and convinced by what they get out of a newspaper..”
– Mark Twain 1873
Whole heartedly agree. Better yet, if Sanders were to be Pres, then it would only be 1/2 a generation to wasted millennial minds that the constitution is sovereign in this country above any party or left or right leaning reprobate.
Realizing their complicity in the events of 9/11 are on the precipice of being exposed, Saudi Arabia has gone into full panic mode. They are now threatening to liquidate hundreds of billion in U.S. denominated assets, and perhaps as much as $750 billion in U.S. T-bills (the NYT’s estimate of Saudi Treasury holdings).
Read more at http://thefreethoughtproject.com/saudi-arabia-threatens-crash-dollar-congress-passes-911-bill-exposing-saudi-role-attacks/#U0zdWhsluxwsv4Po.99 What does this mean? This report is from the New York Times
If the New York Times publishes something, you were meant to see it. Just keep that in mind.
Gary, of our 19+ trillion in debt, about 6.2 trillion is owned by foreign countries. Of that debt about 4.5 trillion is owned by China and Japan while about 750 billion is owned by Saudi Arabia. I wonder with the fact that the first 2 countries are so far in debt and their reserves are going to be compromised over time, at what point does one of them blink and have to sell our treasuries to shore up their solvency. China is slowly doing that allready but they may rush for the barn door sooner then expected. We all know what will happen if foreigners need to sell their holdings of our debt in the future and it won’t be pretty.
The Fed will end up owning most of the Treasuries in the end (as crazy as that sounds). They are already one of the top holders and have been mopping up sales from other countries as time goes on.
It is not so different for the Bank of Japan which now directly owns something like a third of all JGB’s or the large insurance companies and pensions in Japan controlling another third among themselves.
It does of course offer insulation against external threats other countries might create if they attempt to destabilize a currency or government. But the whole process sounds so crazy it almost makes no sense at all.
The money that was originally borrowed into existence to begin with was real enough but the ginned up funds use to buy back the JGB’s is truly artificial just asares the Fed’s repurchases.
I don’t think most people can wrap their heads around the magnitude of how this shell game really works but in fact it does work for countries like Japan and the US whose currencies are still respected, accepted and strong enough that they can literally print money on a computer terminal to buy back debt that was once sold for real consideration.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard once proposed a novel solution to this massive experiment. As the debt is slowly but surely re-absorbed by the issuing country the obvious answer to extinguishing that debt was to simply take all those paper obligations, put them in a big, fat, pile and light it on fire since we owe it to ourselves anyway!
What is happening on that score verges on the preposterous and yet its all true. And it is indeed happening while we speak which is how the Fed came to be one of the worlds largest holder of Treasuries (2.5 trillion dollars worth) and the Bank of Japan the single largest holder of JGB’s.
Its a crazy world, man!!!
Check this quote from a story on the subject last September:
“The BoJ held a record ¥295 trillion of outstanding government bonds and bills at the end of June, making up 28.5% of all outstanding debt from 21.2% a year earlier. At this pace that ratio could exceed 50% by 2018. Banks have been cutting their holdings”.
Bank of Japan’s new stimulus seen by analysts as bond buying nears limit
“just asares the Fed’s”….should read…… “just as are the Fed’s”
Well, so much for oil going to da moon.
If they run out of oil tankers and storage facilities, maybe they will take extra oil storage capacity to the moon….literally. There is nowhere else to put the stuff.
Ha Ha…you are a pretty funny guy Doc! What I got a kick out of was how everyone was looking at that WTI chart and the obvious-as-hell double-top yet traders still remained massively net long in disproportionate numbers. That trade was a slam dunk for anyone who had made the easy connection being that the market needs to make fools of most of the people most of the time.
As I often like to say, when everyone is on one side of the boat then all of them are going to get wet. And they did.
Techinically as mentioned previously, end of June to early July will probably be an ultimate time again to look for a push in oil.
What does Deutsche Bank’s confession mean for gold and silver investors?
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2016-04-18 01:55. Section: Daily Dispatches
For the time being, probably just a lot more litigation.
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
What do Deutsche Bank’s confession to gold and silver market rigging and its pledge to incriminate other bullion banks mean?
Almost certainly they mean more litigation on top of the federal class-action lawsuit in New York that prompted the confession and pledge. Beyond that it’s anyone’s guess.
Of course gold traders, investors, and gold and silver mining companies and their investors are wondering what’s in it for them. That’s hard to say.
Lot of doom & gloom setting into the PM market after a great run up so far.
Almost everyone is screaming for a correction?
I am not hedged for a downside move ATM.
Nor am I expecting one just yet.
I think we move up further yet before consolidation.
…..but mebbe I’m on my lonesome in those thoughts?
Doom and gloom Skeeta? Not according to the Spec positioning. Have you seen that data yet because its way over the top? Gold and silver investors have not been so bullish in years which is why we see the Commercial Hedgers with the greatest short position in history.
It is really only on this site that a few people are taking the prospect of a metals and miners correction seriously but if you read elsewhere its all rah-rah-rah still. And even here, the bias is still generally positive when you discount the comments of a few people like myself and Don Corleone.
That’s what makes it such a great trade set up.
You & Don appear to be calling for an entire capitulation,
Not a correction.
Everywhere the media says we need to correct downwards.
I’m happy to let winner’s ride ATM.
I think we may go higher before any consolidation.
What refuses to go up and break-out must logically fall back, Skeeta. There is a possibility of nothing more than a correction of course and then gold resumes higher. If that happens then I bail out and go with the trend. So its doesn’t really matter to me one way or another. But in the meantime I like to have a target to work with so I can know what my tolerance is should that idea fail to work out. Those targets will change on a week by week basis. Today for example gold is actually rising however its already posted a reversal candle so the trend remains down for now. I am really not worried about it. My theory is sound and metals are way overbought by the specs. Usually that rewards the contrarian bet.
I never said there would not be a correction down….eventually it will happen.
I just do not believe that time is now (like ‘apparently’ you & Don do).
That is why I am currently not hedged to the downside, but the time for me to hedge will come….but its not now imo.
Like I previously said…..for now I’m happy to let winners run.
I have not had the portfolio triple success like Matthew currently has.
But I have had 2 triples +, 8 doubles +, & the remainder closing in on one (a double) at present.
I honestly think they will move higher before I need to hedge for any downside risk.
But thats only my opinion, lets see how the dice rolls the next few weeks.
Cheers to you.
Right on, Skeeta. +1
Appreciate you mentioning that again—it’s something everyone should keep in the back of their minds as a nagging little voice.
UK Is warned everyone will pay 6,000 pounds more for Brexit.
Warned employment will drop to be like Spain and Portugal.
Spain are Portugal are IN the EU…….seems like a reason to leave, or if no Brexit then fire 90% of politicians, because they are clearly surplus to needs!
Does the word “bubble” even have a meaning in China anymore? Some might wonder that aloud after the latest news that homes in Shenzen have risen by an eye-popping 62% since this time last year.
There is absolutely zero correlation now between current home price increases in the First Tier cities and actual inflation rates which are what normally guides the appreciation in housing over the long run.
So a casual observer should conclude that this is going to end in tears and indeed that is what invariably happens following such an unprecedented speculative period. Timing the bust is another story altogether though and as we know markets can remain irrational for long periods of time.
Check out the story linked below anyway. There is a trade or two in here if you can figure out what will happen to the rest of the globe once China finally belly flops and the house of credit (cards) come-a-tumbling down.
Kyle Bass has bet heavily that there will be a Yuan revaluation after the bust and he may be correct. That is not a trade that most ordinary people can play easily though and I suspect it will take awhile for him to hit pay dirt with that bet.
But there are other approaches and they involve currencies of the commodity nations as one example. For Kyle, his trade relies heavily on the singular actions of the PBOC and how willful the State Party is where acting on their own currency is concerned.
That holds risk because they can wait you out until there is a capitulation of specs.
For Australia though the connection will be much more transparent and obvious to traders. A housing bubble burst in China will eviscerate remaining demand for coal, iron, copper and all the other goodies that the construction beast in China demands and consumes.
And in Australia’s case you will not be up against a willful Dictatorship government that tries to artificially fix its currency at any given rate in order to defy speculators who are betting against its primary central policy objectives.
So just ask yourself this…When China pops, what else is going to go bust that will be a lot easier to play.
China March home prices rise at fastest rate in two years, top cities boom
Let me give you another example even if it is not something easily traded on. Foreign direct investment into Africa from China exceeded 250 billion dollars the last ten years and was something in the range of 400 billion if all private companies are included in the tally.
The minuscule GDP’s of there nations was literally drowned in Chinese Foreign Direct Investment.
So where is all that money going to keep coming from once the credit bust in China actually becomes apparent? The housing bubbles in East Africa are actually much worse than those in China by every single metric we know.
For example, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, it now costs the equivalent of between 50 and 100 years average income to buy the typical home. We are talking mud houses with rusty corrugated tin roofs here by the way and they are fetching millions of (ETB) Ethiopian Birr each.
What Westerner would be willing to pay upwards of a quarter million dollars or more for the luxury of a mud / straw house in the capital city of one of the poorest countries in the world? But this is now a fact. and most of this is due to the unprecedented capital flows into East Africa that originated out of China.
Nobody ever saw so much money pour in so fast. The specs went wild! When the bust inevitably comes this country is going to mean-revert right back to where it started where housing is concerned and joblessness will skyrocket as the building boom comes to a screeching halt.
The bubble I mention here is so spectacular that it completely defies logic and common sense. But it is the same story in Kenya and much of East Africa that got the lions share of the money to build dams, roads, bridges, airports and all other variety of public and private projects.
Money has been pouring in from Europe and America too. Billions of if. Far more than these poor countries were able to absorb without creating massive distortions. And it is not that I or anyone else would complain that East Africa is developing fast but what we now worry about is what happens when the music stops.
And let me assure you it will stop. Chinese expansionism abroad is about to hit the skids with a thud. There simply will not be sufficient resources (dollars) available for them to keep deploying cash abroad when their domestic economy finally has its hard landing. Its why i am bothered so much by this constant mantra the China bulls keep repeating about the 3 trillion dollar hoard of FX the Peoples Bank holds.
It ain’t enough. Not by a long shot.
A China bust is also an Africa bust. Remember that. It will be a very painful period.
Visualizing Chinese Investment in Africa
What happens if the Chinese figure their American currency assets are worth sacrificing to a gold backed yuan?
Its possible the brics are tired of american currency along with its baggage and may feel the time is at hand.
We could move to an sdr with gold in the basket, looks to me something is about to change.
Multiple meetings between FED Reserve , Whitehouse Pres. and VP.
suggesting the serious nature of all parties being present. We can’t assume we know the full nature of the meeting, but we can look at the frequency and the calibre of folks involved and suggest the serious nature of the matter of the USD.
OPEC – delays until JUNE, any prod cuts.
if I was a banker trying to prop up the value of the dollar… and the oil price was appearing to go lower, and the dollar by default would be needed in less quantity to buy oil if the oil price were to fall 5% then I would suspect 5% less dollars would be needed to buy oil in the future if the price of oil falls. Conversely, if oil rises 10% and I need USD to buy the oil, demand for dollars would be increased as well.
If the dollar were to fall dramatically and the desire to convert from dollars to gold prior to the collapse of the the bubble in the dollar, would accelerate as the crisis is believed – yet the power of the PTB to use Comex price to steer attention away from gold still exists.
If the Gold price falls this week and DUST goes up, while NUGT drops… it will be blamed on lower oil prices perhaps to a degree.
What is the real cost of a barrel of Oil, if the USD begins a rapid decline? What is the real value of an ounce of silver or gold if its a store of insurance and is desired by many people
Personally, I think the next 3 months will be the market low for several things for the next several decades.
I am investing in toilet paper, and underwear stocks, pepto bismal and tums because I think alot of people will be Sh***ing their pants and having an upset tummy on the ride we are about to encounter.
The Panama papers is the beginning of a massive revealing of a cast of characters and we have yet to see the beginning of unraveling of shady folks and their dealings.
Nice world we live in. Such honesty, such transparency, such morality.
Great post Evin. If not investing in toilet paper, then acquiring a store of iodine and multi-vitamin times seems advisable. Dealing with the lies, duplicity and spinning out of QE is beyond wearisome, and we need to keep our spirits up. Best, A
Sold 30% position in SGSVF for a 41% gain this hour @$1.13
No news yet.
Suddenly,Boom,(SBB:TO)one of my favorite development companies.
A very nice move in Sabina Gold & Silver.
Look at (TMR.TO) share price “similar”project in Nunavut.
(BSX.TO) also looking good.
The name is Birdman, Cory. AKA Farmer in Canada. I have been posting on this site for years. Maybe you can use my handle next time out of respect even if it is anonymous.