Weekend Show – Sat 10 Dec, 2016

Is everyone getting a little too complacent?

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In the first hour of the weekend edition we are focusing on a number of different markets with an overall theme on the optimism that investors hold since the election. We will touch on the potential of a rising interest rate environment, agricultural commodities that investors are largely ignoring, the depressed VIX and resource stocks that are being shunned. Currently everyone is focused on the US markets and in full belief Trump will spur growth. Optimism is good but sometimes it can blind people.

  • Segment 1: We kick off the show with Chris Martenson and a discussion about the potential of a rising interest rate environment.
  • Segment 2: Ned Schmidt, founder of Agri-Food Value View newsletter shares his insights on the potential new bull market in the agricultural industry.
  • Segment 3: Fund Manager Dana Lyons outlines some recent research on the historical movements in volatility in December and how market react.
  • Segment 4: We wrap up the show with Joe Mazumdar, from Exploration Insights with a look at resources stocks and his outlook for 2017.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show


Featuring:
Al KorelinChris MartensonCory FleckDana LyonsNed Schmidt

Comments:
  1. On December 10, 2016 at 2:30 am,
    Skeeta says:

    Thanks as always for the weekend show fella’s,
    Much appreciated.
    Cheers

    • On December 10, 2016 at 9:50 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Another jolly good show!

      Ever Upward.

  2. On December 10, 2016 at 2:49 am,
    Tad says:

    Ha ha…
    Nice one Skeeta.
    Ditto. Always look forward to the weekend show.
    Seasons Greetings from London.

  3. On December 10, 2016 at 4:36 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    A very apt subject – “Is everyone getting a little too complacent?” Trump is not going to save the average joe. Heres some stats from the USdebtclock.org website:
    US total debt: nearly $67,000,000,000,000
    Total debt per citizen: over $200,000
    Actual unemployed: 14,800,000 (more than double official figure)
    Median new house price: 83% higher than 2000
    Median income: 3.5% higher than 2000
    Nearly 1 in 3 Americans either unemployed or under employed
    Average savings per family $9,373 is just over 1% of total debt per family figure of $810,400.
    Number of Americans on food stamps: nearly 43,000,000

    Not sure if Trump can buck this multi year trend. Not sure if he even wants to. For what its worth, here in Australia is far from rosy too.

    • On December 10, 2016 at 1:19 pm,
      JMiller says:

      Ozibatla,

      Nearly 1 in 3 Americans are either unemployed or under employed only if you count children, full-time high school and college students, retired persons, disabled people, stay-at-home moms, etc… And you do not count them as being unemployed or underemployed because they are not part of the labor force. The unemployment rate is around 13% according to government data. There about 165 million in the labor force of which approximately 21 million are completely or partially unemployed.

      • On December 10, 2016 at 2:26 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        JMiler, I should have stated that 1 in 3 figure was alluding to those within the labor force. Sorry.

        According to US debt clock website, there are 152,000,000 Americans in the labor force. Of those, 14,800,000 are actually unemplpyed and 27,800,000 are part time workers, which classifies as underemployed. Together, that figure adds upto 42,600,000 people. This is 28% of the labor force figure which equates to a little under 1 in 3.

        All this data is supllied directly from the government and is said to be soundly reliable.

        • On December 10, 2016 at 3:37 pm,
          JMiller says:

          Ozibatla,

          US debt clock website does says that there are 152 million Americans in the labor force. However that is not really correct. That number is for those that are in the labor force that are employed. It does not count those that are in the labor force that are unemployed. The government data has 159.5 million in the civilian labor force of which 152 million are employed.

          http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea03.htm

          Using those number you get the U-3 unemployment rate of 4.6% (about 7.5 million unemployed). However one should use the U-6 rate which is the broadest measure of unemployment which is 9.3 % (about 15 million unemployed).

          http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

          But the government does not include the 6 million or so who are long-term discouraged workers in their labor force number or as being unemployed. They are included in the “Not in the Labor Force” category along with retirees, school students etc… This is wrong so I added those 6 million into the total labor force to get my 165 million and into my unemployed number to get my 21 million.

          So there are about 165 million in the labor force (either employed and unemployed). To find out how many in the labor force are unemployed you take the U-6 unemployment rate of 9.3% which is about 15 million people and add to it the 6 million of long-term discouraged workers who are not included in the U-6 unemployment rate and you get 21 million. 21 million unemployed out of 165 million in the labor force is about 13%.

          Also those 27,800,000 that are part time workers are not all unemployed. Some work 40 hours a week by working two or more part-time jobs. They are not unemployed if they work 40 hours or more a week. Also some part-timers, who work multiple part-time jobs, are probably being counted two or three times in that 27,800,000 number. Also some full-time school students and retired persons, who are not in the labor force, do work a part-time job and also some full-time workers also have part-time jobs. So you can not just take all those 27,800,000 and say that they are all underemployed workers who are working just one part-time but want a full-time job. According to this site there are about 6 million people who were working part-time because they couldn’t get full-time work, although they’d prefer it.

          https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate-3306198

          • On December 12, 2016 at 9:32 am,
            GH says:

            JMiller, thanks for breaking it down for us. 👍

          • On December 12, 2016 at 3:25 pm,
            JMiller says:

            Just a follow-up from my original post. Here is some data about part-time workers in the Labor Force. While about 6 million are working part-time for economic reasons, there are about 22 million working part-time for noneconomic reasons. These are people who have family responsibilities, or are going to school or are retired. Probably also people who have a disability and can only work part-time. Obviously a school student, retiree or housewife working a part-time job on the side is not unemployed or underemployed. They are not looking for a full-time job. So while part-timers are included in the Labor Force, most should not be counted as unemployed or underemployed. Only the 6 million employed part-time for economic reasons should be counted as unemployed/underemployed which they are in the U-6 unemployment rate.

            http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t08.htm

        • On December 10, 2016 at 3:44 pm,
          JMiller says:

          Ozibatla,

          I replied to your post above but it contained several links which means it is now awaiting moderation. That US debt clock website info is misleading as you will see in my lengthy post. Not sure how long it will take for it to be seen.

          • On December 10, 2016 at 5:34 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            I look forward to viewing your post JMiller.

            Considering that info is supposedly straight from the government, I wouldnt be surprised that it is not only misleading but even falsified. But falsified to make the overall economy seem in better shape than what it is.

  4. On December 10, 2016 at 5:02 am,
    jhpace1 says:

    The ultra-wealthy always close their purses first at any sign of trouble.

    Meanwhile, the sheep are being led to the slaughter with bonds at 0.001% for 50 years, the stock market making all-time highs, and commodities manipulated.

  5. On December 10, 2016 at 6:50 am,
    CFS says:

    Re: Interest Rates. Behind the curve? Ahead of the Curve? What, on earth are you guys talking about?
    The Central Banks have set interest rates based on Government needs and political desires. Japan has kept their interest rates low to continuously kick their can down the road and will continue to do so, until they can’t.
    All countries in the world have excessive debt. In many countries this is a debt bomb, guaranteed to eventually destroy the economy of the country.
    In some countries the debt bomb will be powerful enough not only to destroy one country, but also many trading partners in this this multiply interconnected world.
    With regard to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, in which 97% are expecting an interest rate rise, it should be obvious to all that NO interest rate rise should be made. The economy could hardly be described as over-heating. Increasing interest rates will merely increase the rate of growth of US debt; hardly a desirable effect.
    However, an interest rate rise may be made for political reasons: to restore the credibility of the governors of the Federal Reserve who have been proclaiming in gwneral an interest rate need for over a year. Beside, with Yellen being a Democrat, one must ask if she really can put political desires aside or whether she might like to damage the Trump administration with a down-turn in the economy caused by an interest rate rise. !!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXcLVDhS8fM

    • On December 10, 2016 at 2:32 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      CFS you are spot on regarding why an interest rate rise is being considered. Its all political posturing. They need to implement a rate rise in order to save face. Like you stated, increasing interest rates only increases the overall debt figure and that is not a good outcome.

      Interesting theory that Yellen could deliberately sabotgae Trump just to fulfill her democratic roots. Anythings plausible in todays world.

  6. On December 10, 2016 at 7:06 am,
    CFS says:
  7. On December 10, 2016 at 7:08 am,
    CFS says:
    • On December 10, 2016 at 10:01 am,
      Matthew says:

      Thanks for the links, especially to Arnott. He gets it across the board. There is a lot of pent-up inflation in the form of QE and he’s my kind of bear on the stock market. He’s not calling for a crash but says that stocks are facing serious headwinds and will underperform.

      • On December 10, 2016 at 10:45 am,
        Matthew says:

        Adam Hamilton also gets it and he recognizes that stocks are in a bubble…

        http://www.howestreet.com/2016/12/07/is-gold-still-a-good-long-term-bet/

        • On December 11, 2016 at 9:24 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks Matthew. It’s always good to hear Adam’s thoughts.

          • On December 11, 2016 at 9:29 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            28 times price to earnings (bubble territory), 14 times price to earnings (fair value). Great point.

    • On December 11, 2016 at 5:56 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks CFS – that was a good interview from Bob Arnott.

  8. On December 10, 2016 at 7:24 am,
    CFS says:
  9. On December 10, 2016 at 7:31 am,
    CFS says:

    Bill Murphy on Silver price Manipulation:

    http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/murphy.12.08.16.mp3

    • On December 10, 2016 at 7:38 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      CFS, Murphy is all about Murphy and his agenda.

  10. On December 10, 2016 at 7:34 am,
    CFS says:

    M&A activity in Platinum that caused Friday’s price rise.

    http://www.gata.org/node/16995

  11. On December 10, 2016 at 7:39 am,
    b says:

    I appreciate Ned Schmidt, I feel agriculture is/will be a profitable spot to put some coin.
    Great to hear some ideas.
    5-10% gold leaves 90-95% for other opportunities.

    • On December 10, 2016 at 10:10 am,
      wolfster says:

      Yes agreed…..especially with pot and even hemp now.there are some interesting ideas

      • On December 10, 2016 at 2:52 pm,
        b says:

        Green is the new gold.

        Its alot easier to figure out than mining companies too.
        The dd for PM companies is gamble at best.
        Yes we all make money on them but there are alot of variables and lots remain unseen no matter the diligence.

        I really liked Bob M saying if he can be decieved anyone can, how many people actually go to the sites?
        Love or hate him Bob knows what he talks about.

        Anyway, with pot ya just need to review financials and the management plans, its already a fact they sell 100% of what they produce.

        In Canada, its even easier, just buy them all.
        If they drop in price,buy more or ride it out.
        Pretty simple.

  12. On December 10, 2016 at 8:34 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Chris Martenson said, “Watch the news and stay informed…..”. Knowing all we know today, I’m left wondering exactly what news he recommends one to follow!
    Any help out there?

    • On December 11, 2016 at 5:32 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The Onion, the National Enquirer, and Mad Magazine of course……

    • On December 11, 2016 at 7:40 pm,
      GH says:

      Propornot provided a list of 200 sites that provide at least some decent info.

  13. On December 10, 2016 at 10:05 am,
    Steele says:

    Can you trust the press?
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=4B0HV_GQut4

  14. On December 10, 2016 at 10:32 am,
    Paul L. says:

    A quarter % per year is all they could raise but this might be the last raise for years.

  15. On December 10, 2016 at 10:41 am,
    Paul L. says:

    Agrium has shot up from 88 to 109 and looking like a bubble ready to burst with rsi at 81.

  16. On December 10, 2016 at 10:46 am,
    Paul L. says:

    VIX is actually 11.75. A drop of 7.04% on Friday.

  17. On December 10, 2016 at 11:06 am,
    CFS says:

    Very Low volumes today in Gold and Silver in China and India.

    SGE Prices: Gold $1193.16, Silver $18.41

    Yesterday the price differential for gold,SGE versus COMEX reached the highest ever recorded at just over $38, before dropping back.

    In India the current official rates for gold are:
    Gold Price In Indian Cities
    City Standard Gold (22 K) Pure Gold (24 K)
    1 gram 8 grams 1 gram 8 grams
    AGRA ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    AHMEDABAD ₹ 2,830 ₹ 22,640 ₹ 2,958 ₹ 23,664
    ALIGARH ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    ALLAHABAD ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    AMBALA ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    AMRAVATI ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    AURANGABAD ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    BANGALORE ₹ 2,655 ₹ 21,240 ₹ 2,850 ₹ 22,800
    BAREILLY ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    BELGAUM ₹ 2,655 ₹ 21,240 ₹ 2,850 ₹ 22,800
    BELLARY ₹ 2,655 ₹ 21,240 ₹ 2,850 ₹ 22,800
    BHILAI ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    BHOPAL ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    BHUBANESHWAR ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    CHANDIGARH ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    CHENNAI ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    COIMBATORE ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    CUTTACK ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    DEHRADUN ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    DELHI ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    DINDIGUL ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    ERODE ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    FARIDABAD ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    GHAZIABAD ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    GULBARGA ₹ 2,655 ₹ 21,240 ₹ 2,850 ₹ 22,800
    GUNTUR ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    GURGAON ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    GUWAHATI ₹ 2,751 ₹ 22,008 ₹ 2,909 ₹ 23,272
    HALDWANI ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    HISAR ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    HOSUR ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    HYDERABAD ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    INDORE ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    JABALPUR ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    JAIPUR ₹ 2,830 ₹ 22,640 ₹ 2,958 ₹ 23,664
    JALGAON ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    JAMMU ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    JAMNAGAR ₹ 2,830 ₹ 22,640 ₹ 2,958 ₹ 23,664
    JAMSHEDPUR ₹ 2,751 ₹ 22,008 ₹ 2,909 ₹ 23,272
    JODHPUR ₹ 2,830 ₹ 22,640 ₹ 2,958 ₹ 23,664
    KAKINADA ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    KANNUR ₹ 2,700 ₹ 21,600 ₹ 2,900 ₹ 23,200
    KANPUR ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    KARNAL ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    KARUR ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    KOCHI ₹ 2,700 ₹ 21,600 ₹ 2,900 ₹ 23,200
    KOLHAPUR ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    KOLKATA ₹ 2,751 ₹ 22,008 ₹ 2,909 ₹ 23,272
    KOTA ₹ 2,830 ₹ 22,640 ₹ 2,958 ₹ 23,664
    KOZHIKODE ₹ 2,700 ₹ 21,600 ₹ 2,900 ₹ 23,200
    KURNOOL ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    LUCKNOW ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    LUDHIANA ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    MADURAI ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    MALAPPURAM ₹ 2,700 ₹ 21,600 ₹ 2,900 ₹ 23,200
    MANGALORE ₹ 2,655 ₹ 21,240 ₹ 2,850 ₹ 22,800
    MEERUT ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    MUMBAI ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    MYSORE ₹ 2,655 ₹ 21,240 ₹ 2,850 ₹ 22,800
    NAGERCOIL ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    NAGPUR ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    NANDED ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    NASIK ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    NELLORE ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    NOIDA ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    PANAJI ₹ 2,655 ₹ 21,240 ₹ 2,850 ₹ 22,800
    PATNA ₹ 2,751 ₹ 22,008 ₹ 2,909 ₹ 23,272
    PONDICHERRY ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    PRODDATUR ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    PUNE ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    RAIPUR ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    RAJAHMUNDRY ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    RAJKOT ₹ 2,830 ₹ 22,640 ₹ 2,958 ₹ 23,664
    RANCHI ₹ 2,751 ₹ 22,008 ₹ 2,909 ₹ 23,272
    RATLAM ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    SALEM ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    SANGLI ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    SHIMLA ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    SHIMOGA ₹ 2,655 ₹ 21,240 ₹ 2,850 ₹ 22,800
    SILIGURI ₹ 2,751 ₹ 22,008 ₹ 2,909 ₹ 23,272
    SOLAPUR ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    SRINAGAR ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    SURAT ₹ 2,830 ₹ 22,640 ₹ 2,958 ₹ 23,664
    THANE ₹ 2,810 ₹ 22,480 ₹ 2,938 ₹ 23,504
    THANJAVUR ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    THIRUVANANTHAPURAM ₹ 2,700 ₹ 21,600 ₹ 2,900 ₹ 23,200
    THRISSUR ₹ 2,700 ₹ 21,600 ₹ 2,900 ₹ 23,200
    TIRUCHIRAPALLI ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    TIRUNELVELI ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    TUTICORIN ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    UDAIPUR ₹ 2,830 ₹ 22,640 ₹ 2,958 ₹ 23,664
    UDUPI ₹ 2,655 ₹ 21,240 ₹ 2,850 ₹ 22,800
    VADODARA ₹ 2,830 ₹ 22,640 ₹ 2,958 ₹ 23,664
    VARANASI ₹ 2,765 ₹ 22,120 ₹ 2,887 ₹ 23,096
    VELLORE ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    VIJAYAWADA ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    VISAKHAPATNAM ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    WARANGAL ₹ 2,738 ₹ 21,904 ₹ 2,894 ₹ 23,152
    in Rupees, with the exchange rate of 67.47 Rupees to the US dollar.

    Although there are shortages and reports of private deals occurring at higher prices.

  18. On December 10, 2016 at 11:13 am,
    CFS says:

    Interestingly. sex equality has not reached India. Single Males are now limited to a maximum gold legal ownership of only 3.11 ounces.

    • On December 11, 2016 at 7:42 pm,
      GH says:

      Not just India, as it looks to me like female theft from males is pretty much legal in the western world.

  19. On December 10, 2016 at 11:23 am,
    Paul L. says:

    XLF has peaked with RSI at 81.48. XLE is at 71.57 and not much more to go. XLK-tech is at 62.70 and when this one peaks near 70+ the market will start to fall slowly and then downside momentum should build over several days and weeks. When Intel gets close to 37.50 to 38 that should be a good signal to get out

  20. On December 10, 2016 at 11:32 am,
    CFS says:

    My best guess is the Trump will try to issue some 50 year (or possibly 100 year) “Rebuild America” Bonds to lock in the current low interest rates for his whole term.
    This would “allow” him to use “off the books” money to try to stimulate the economy, since it will be described as a one-time non-budgetary item.
    They will be one of the worst-ever investments!

  21. On December 10, 2016 at 11:40 am,
    Excelsior says:

    The Next Bull Market Move Interview

    Rick Rule, President and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc.

    http://thenextbullmarketmove.tumblr.com/post/153984864830/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-rick-rule

  22. On December 10, 2016 at 11:56 am,
    Matthew says:

    The BPGDM is now at 21. I commented a few weeks ago that I thought it would turn up from 7, and it did.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20165789460&a=486723457

  23. On December 10, 2016 at 12:19 pm,
    Matthew says:

    DIA:GDX is back-testing a large double top neckline while forming what is likely to be a huge H&S top with a bearishly right-drooping neckline. A weekly “death cross” is coming, too.

    DIA is 9.56 times GDX right now but I believe it will ultimately go below 1x — but not next year, of course.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p53680447321&a=492870149

  24. On December 10, 2016 at 12:50 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I bought too much GG.V too soon and am down significantly but I still bought a lot more into the recent low. Selling finally appears to be near exhaustion.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG.V&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46995552928&a=477167940

    • On December 10, 2016 at 12:54 pm,
      Matthew says:
    • On December 10, 2016 at 12:56 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’ve been giving it some consideration lately Matthew and appreciate you posts on it. I generally don’t like S. Africa (with Platinum Group Metals and Ivanhoe being 2 exceptions), but it looks worth the jurisdiction concerns due to the quality of their assets and the efficiencies in their mines. Thanks for keeping this one in front of us.

      • On December 10, 2016 at 1:03 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I decided to add Pure Gold, Red Eagle Mining, Resource Capital Gold Corp, and Novo Resources, first, and shored up my positions in Alkane, Avnel Gold, Hummingbird, Argonaut, Scorpio Gold, Mandalay, Montan Mining, Minera Alamos, Teuton Resources, Golden Valley, and Marlin Gold mining as well. Still have a nice Jaguar position and I trimmed a bit of Mexus into the recent strength but left the rest on to ride. There are a about 2 dozen other Gold companies I’ve sold out of in the past that I’m evaluating to reposition in once again and a few exploration and prospect development plays I’m reviewing. Busy times in the Gold miners….

        • On December 10, 2016 at 1:05 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          One of my larger positions in the gold miners is Teranga Gold. I just feel they are undervalued compared to their small producing peers, and was a fan of the Gryphon Minerals acquisition. Anybody have any thoughts on Teranga Gold?

          • On December 10, 2016 at 1:08 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Some of the ones I’m considering buying back into are Torex, Golden Queen, McEwen, Integra, Richmont, Klondex, K92, Comstock, and even Sandstorm. Anybody have any Gold Jrs or even mid-tiers they think represent good value here?

          • On December 10, 2016 at 6:38 pm,
            wolfster says:

            Always liked them after they took out my Oromin a couple years ago.Used to get more analyst coverage.Almost seems like a forgotten stock.Not sure if this has been posted before but contains 2 others I like as well semafo and Guyana .
            http://seekingalpha.com/article/4026855-top-5-gold-junior-takeover-targets-2017

          • On December 11, 2016 at 9:17 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Wolfster – I remembered skimming over that article the end of last month and seeing Teranga on their list of 5 takeover targets, but it was nice to revisit it.

            Yes, for some reason investors just haven’t been paying attention to Teranga. I postulated that once the Gryphon merger had wrapped up that the stock would go through a re-rating to the upside, but unfortunately the metals have been on a downward slide the last few months. At one point, investors will wake up to their economics, development & exploration pipeline and adjust things accordingly.

            Cheers!

          • On December 11, 2016 at 9:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I’ve traded Guyana in the past, but haven’t ever had a position in Semafo. Looks like it’s time to look them over again. Thanks Wolfster.

        • On December 11, 2016 at 1:04 am,
          Robert Moriarty says:

          Excelsior/Matthew:

          Here is a freebie. Go look up Irving on the C Exchange. IRV-C and read the last six press releases carefully and do the math using this formula

          http://www.kitco.com/pop_windows/kitcorockcalc.html

          That’s only for Excelsior and Matthew. The rest can ignore it.

          • On December 11, 2016 at 9:43 am,
            Matthew says:

            Thank you, Robert.

          • On December 11, 2016 at 11:21 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Bob M. Will do, and much appreciated.

          • On December 11, 2016 at 12:31 pm,
            CFS says:

            I Feel Left Out Mr. Moriarty!

            I know I’mnot a T.A. Chartist, but I can analyse fundamentals ;>}

          • On December 11, 2016 at 7:39 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Thanks Bob Buddy, pal, friend, and champ. DT

          • On December 11, 2016 at 7:47 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            LOL! I see Dr. Q is in the mix, very nice. DT

      • On December 10, 2016 at 1:06 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I don’t like South Africa either but sooo much bad stuff is already priced-in, that ANY backing-off on the part of the dummies running things could result in fantastic gains. The exact opposite is true of the best places. In addition, GG has the Botswana operation which might act as a safety net should SA get even worse.

        • On December 10, 2016 at 1:10 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Well, I love West Africa, and generally steer clear of S. Africa, but I’m willing to take on the risk (especially when it is mostly priced in), if the project and economics merit. Thanks for the info. It’s on my short list for sure and appreciate your thoughts on it.

          • On December 11, 2016 at 12:01 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here’s an old post (mostly focused on West African miners) that I noticed when in the Sibayne Room. If anyone has any companies they really like in Africa, it would be neat to hear about them.

            @Excelsior – “Thanks for the $EDV $EDVMF Endeavour article from Northern Miner. I was pretty jazzed about their acquisition of True Gold mining, and that lit a fire under the #GOLD mining focus in #BurkinaFaso.”

            “Really all of West #Africa has just been booming the last few years and many investors have missed the boat so far with True Gold takeover, $AKG Asanko going into production, $ROG $ROGFF Roxgold going into production, the Amara takeover by $PRU $PMNXF Perseus, and the current takeover of $GRY.AX $GPHYF Gryphon by $TGZ $TGCDF Teranga Gold.”

            ” There is also the rise of interest in all the other #Development projects discussed here like $ORE $ORZCF Orezone, $AVK $AVNZF Avnel Gold, $WAF $WFRSF West African Resources, $HUM.L $HUMRF Hummingbird Resources, $AGG $AGGFF African Gold Group, $AUE $ARSMF Aureus Mining, $AZUMF $AZM.AX Azumah Resources, and $MXI $MXGIF Merrex Gold.”

            ” Lastly there is all the exciting #Exploration #drillplays like $SWA $SRMMF Sarama Resources, $SCA $SVVYF Savary Gold, $CAP $CPKOF Castle Peak, $CDV.AX $CRDNF Cardinal Resources, $ASE $ASGOF Asante Gold, $BGS.AX $EEYMF Birimian Gold, $THX Thor Exploration, $PX $PGXPF Pelangio Exploration, etc…”

            ” There are other areas of ~AUfrica with great assets like $SBGL $SBGLF Sibayne Gold, $IVN $IVPAF Ivanhoe, $BTG B2 Gold Corp, $ACA.L $ABGLF ACACIA MINING, $BRYYF $BYR.AX Burey Gold, $ORG $CANWF Orca Gold, $GRL.L Goldstone Resources, $GMR.AX Golden Rim Resources, $TIR.L $TGS.AX Tiger Resources, $PAFRF $PAF.L Pan African Resources, $AFM $AFMJF Alphamin Resources, $AAN $ANLBF Aton Resources, $PTM $PLG Platinum Group Metals, and all the other PGM household names. The fun never ends….. :-)”

            from ~aufrica – Oct 2016, 09:06

        • On December 11, 2016 at 11:17 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Descend Into The World’s Deepest Gold Mine (Mponeng – in S. Africa)

          JEFF DESJARDINS – DECEMBER 8, 2016

          http://money.visualcapitalist.com/descend-worlds-deepest-gold-mine/

          • On December 11, 2016 at 11:26 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Investors following the Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) story should really check out the most recent posts from @DJS in the $IVN room on CEO. Funny and informative interlude about Rick Rule and Robert Friedland and Zijin Mining executive.

            https://www.ceo.ca/ivn

      • On December 11, 2016 at 10:50 am,
        Blue says:
        • On December 11, 2016 at 11:50 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Great Article Blue.

          I blew my wad posting about Neal and Sibanye Gold on CEO, but it is easy to see in that article their motivation to diversify into assets out of S. Africa.

          For investors interested in some discussions on the Sibanye and Stillwater merger, and the consolidation of the PGM space:

          https://www.ceo.ca/sbgl

          • On December 11, 2016 at 9:22 pm,
            Blue says:

            👍

  25. On December 10, 2016 at 12:53 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Stocks Precariously Positioned As 2016 Comes To A Close

    by @Goldfinger on December 10, 2016

    https://www.ceo.ca/@goldfinger/stocks-precariously-positioned-as-2016-comes-to-a-close

  26. On December 10, 2016 at 12:59 pm,
    Matthew says:

    GMX continues to hang onto its breakout from a huge, decade-old pitchfork:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GMX.TO&p=W&yr=12&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44629449533&a=489490747

  27. On December 10, 2016 at 12:59 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    Same old cast of characters, Bob Arnott, Rob Kirby, Ned Schmidt, silver doctors, Chris Martinson, Rick Rule…

    They all must go.

    Can someone here make a forecast?

    Trump is the game changer.

    Gold could be sub $700 in the next two to four years

    • On December 10, 2016 at 1:01 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Your stupidity is criminal in my book.

    • On December 10, 2016 at 2:53 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      I will make a forecast James. Gold will be above $1000 in 12 months but below $1500

      • On December 11, 2016 at 9:34 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        +1

        • On December 11, 2016 at 9:40 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Most of the Gold miners that lowered their production costs down during the 5 year bear market will be fine in that zone, and will have nice margins and growing free cash flows. This is why I’m more bullish on the miners than the metals, and why they have such potential to outperform to the upside in a rising price environment.

    • On December 11, 2016 at 7:49 pm,
      GH says:

      Rob Arnott’s firm manages $165 billion because he is less capable than James Dunning-Kruger the Lesser.

      • On December 11, 2016 at 8:03 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Lol +1

  28. On December 10, 2016 at 1:40 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    Anyone who thinks silver is in a cyclical bear market after going from $48 to $16 after 5 years because gold hasn’t gotten as crushed as well is really really stupid in my book and deluded.

    • On December 10, 2016 at 1:44 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Says the guy who made no money this year because he’s too paralyzed and clueless to act appropriately. LOL

  29. On December 10, 2016 at 1:52 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    Worse than being stupid and deluded is intruding into things you know nothing about

    • On December 11, 2016 at 1:09 am,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      JTL; You are really a hoot. You didn’t know what the low in gold was in 1999 even through you pretended you had bought it and I had to tell you when silver hit $4. You welshed on a bet and you claim to know the merits of a book that you have never read. You pretty much define stupid and intruding into things you know nothing about. But to your credit, when you are sober your spelling isn’t that bad.

      But here’s one for you about your favorite fellow swamp rat

      http://www.321energy.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty121116.html

      • On December 11, 2016 at 5:33 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Good editorial on the effect GATA has had on gold Bob M.

        • On December 11, 2016 at 7:49 pm,
          b says:

          Bobs been mentioning gata for awhile, take note of people that associate with gata.
          Max used to say “500 silver if you want it”.
          All this buy buy buy BS has gotta hurt the whole industry.
          Personally I think more people would be interested in gold if people would just stick to the truth about gold and quit trying to make out to be something its not.

          But, whatdoIno?

  30. On December 10, 2016 at 1:54 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    An open challenge to all and anyone…can someone make a forecast?

    Anyone…make a 2017 gold and or silver forecast.

    Anytime of forecast

    • On December 11, 2016 at 5:51 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      In the 3rd Quarter of 2017 Gold will make it up through the 377 Week EMA, the 233 Week EMA, and the 144 week EMA definitively, and will take out it’s 2016 peak at $1377.50 and Gold’s 2013 peak at $1434 climbing all the way to $1492 before putting in an intermediate high.

      ” 1492 is the year Columbus sailed the ocean blue….”

      Here is a chart showing the $1377.50 high from 2016 and the $1434 peak in 2013.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21742695491

      • On December 11, 2016 at 6:40 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Columbus Day – Monday, October 9, 2017

        • On December 11, 2016 at 9:03 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Columbus day is in the 4th quarter technically, but if gold doesn’t clear $1492 by Columbus day….. then clearly the Zionist bankers and Aliens will have colluded in meetings in underground bases; Gold will then plummet to $0, and the world be over-run by and army of Bigfoots, Lock Ness Monster clones, and Flying Swine.

  31. On December 10, 2016 at 1:55 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    Let’s start with something simple, then we will work our way up…

    Will gold be higher or lower by end of 2017?

    • On December 10, 2016 at 2:32 pm,
      Matthew says:

      You don’t need forecasts in order to recognize when gold is near a low or near a high.
      For example:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=13&id=p03533328678&a=446201163

      • On December 10, 2016 at 2:33 pm,
        Matthew says:
        • On December 10, 2016 at 2:37 pm,
          Matthew says:
        • On December 11, 2016 at 12:21 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes! – in the bull market one should target the “Best of the Worst” …..

          In a rising metals environment it can have a huge multiplier effect on a smaller company’s margins and thrust the share-price up on much larger percentage basis than one of the larger juggernauts. These companies teeter below profitability and suddenly get pulled up into profitability and that is where the large moves are to be found.

          This is why I’d rather build my own ETFs and actively manage them. There are dozens of small producers and development-stage companies that hardly anyone discusses, and they aren’t in most ETFs, and yet, they continue to make improvements in their AISC, Revenues, and this will have a much larger multiplier effect when the worm turns to the upside in metal prices.

          In addition, because they are more thinly traded, when the interest does hit, then it forces the stock much higher when volume enters. Fun times!!!

          • On December 11, 2016 at 2:33 pm,
            Tad says:

            There you go… it’s obviously a calling. The ‘GOLD-EX’ etf.
            I’d buy it.

          • On December 11, 2016 at 5:16 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Funny Tad. I’m trying to snag some market share from investors of (GOEX)

            _________________________________________________________________________

            * For investors that start a new position in “Gold-Ex” (GOLEX) in 2017:

            We’ll direct ship you one pair of Precious Metals Depends (Swing Trading edition with extra absorbency), a bottle of Pepto Bismol, and a Zimbabwe “One Trillion Dollar” fiat bank note.

            http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YJudqkhcluc/VX14aFawr9I/AAAAAAAAIRk/Baj6CVoXPbk/s1600/100%2Btrillion%2BZ%2B%2524.jpg

            _______________________________________________________________________

            ** For investors that start a new position in “Silver-Ex” (SLVEX) in 2017:

            We’ll direct ship you a one ounce KER Silver Round [Each side features our fearless hosts: Front: Cory Fleck and back the all-seing Big Owl], a bottle of Dramamine for treating motion sickness, and an official “Wing-Nut” lapel pin.

            Call your broker for more details……

          • On December 11, 2016 at 6:10 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The three of us could start an etf and call it TMEX (sounds like Team Ex 😉 )

          • On December 11, 2016 at 9:41 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            +3

      • On December 10, 2016 at 8:31 pm,
        Steele says:

        Nice charts. Gold COT looks favorable for a bounce sometime next week. Net long speculative positions are at their lowest levels since January. Tax selling should be nearing an end too.

    • On December 10, 2016 at 2:39 pm,
      Matthew says:

      And Dan is right. Gold will be higher by the end of 2017. That one IS an easy one.

    • On December 10, 2016 at 2:40 pm,
      b says:

      Here is my forecast, the dollar price of gold wont matter, golds purchasing power will remain the same, other than short term “blips”.

    • On December 10, 2016 at 2:59 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      Gold higher at the end of 2017 only because i think it has further to fall for the rest of this year.

  32. On December 10, 2016 at 2:13 pm,
    Dan says:

    Higher

  33. On December 10, 2016 at 2:41 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Bob Hoye tells it like it is about the gold miners and the CO2 scam:

    http://www.howestreet.com/2016/12/09/equity-markets-enjoying-so-called-american-spring/

    • On December 11, 2016 at 1:32 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Ditto on the scam

  34. On December 10, 2016 at 4:23 pm,
    CFS says:

    St. Angelo latest interview on oil, PMs etc.
    /www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkgNxLt7X2s

  35. On December 11, 2016 at 1:38 am,
    CFS says:
  36. On December 11, 2016 at 7:56 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I just came across this article on The Financial Post about Signature Golds deposit in North Western Ontario, I have not heard about them before, the drill results look good but the company is on the Canadian Securities exchange under the symbol CVE:SGU.
    http://business.financialpost.com/midas-letter/signature-resources-sampling-of-historic-drill-core-confirms-high-grade-gold

  37. On December 11, 2016 at 3:33 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    How many weeks and months and years will this losing streak last?

  38. On December 11, 2016 at 4:38 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    Gold is getting slaughtered

    • On December 11, 2016 at 6:04 pm,
      cws says:

      Who cares, oil is up!
      Learn to trade!

  39. On December 11, 2016 at 8:03 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    where did you come from?

    • On December 12, 2016 at 6:45 am,
      cws says:

      🙂 BOO!
      oil stocks to trade
      BTE BCEI TPLM
      Happy guy this morning!

      Cheers

  40. On December 12, 2016 at 6:35 am,
    GH says:

    Great point by Adam Hamilton in his Howestreet.com interview — Trump has already said the stock market is in a big fat bubble. If they pop it soon, it’s all Obama’s fault, and it will clear the slate for the rest of Trump’s term.