S&P, T-Bonds and Copper some big moves might be coming
Kicking off today with Rick Ackerman we discuss the potential of some big moves on the heals of the Fed meeting tomorrow. We look at a close resistance zone for the S&P, a turn in T-Bonds and a wedge formation for copper. All of these moves are considered and explained with Rick’s overall deflationary outlook but he does explain how he think deflation will take hold. Here’s a hint… it will come on all of a sudden.
This is a bit of a longer interview but there was a lot to cover and you can tell Rick is passionate about this topic.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I agree Paul
Why would you sell? Your profits are explicitly guaranteed by the Fed, the BoJ, SNB etc. Safer to be in an index ETF though, especially one managed by a TBTF.
The only question for you will be when to sell paper and start buying physical metal. You can certainly dollar cost average into metals using a some the profits from looting.
Stocks are very high by any rational measure, Spanky. Even bulls should be trimming based on the extreme short term overbought readings. Of course, most people prefer to buy high and sell low.
I am being just a bit sarcastic and cynical, but in all honesty, it would have worked for the last 9 years swimmingly.
But I will be absolutely shocked if we ever see a >5% decline in US indexes ever again, much less 10%.
It is the State-sponsored and guaranteed escape valve for excess credit. I personally do not see them letting commodities ever outperform equities until the true endgame. And by that time, we will be seeing capital controls, expropriation, windfall taxes and mine nationalization, so you will never ever be able to make truly gargantuan windfall profits in bullion and miners. It will never happen.
In the spring of 2013, with the Dow around 13,000, Al and Jeff Deist were of the opinion that stocks were in a bubble and I commented that they were not and could go to 19,000 or higher. It was similar in late 2011. Everyone here thought stocks were in a bubble when they weren’t. Now they are. The current picture is MUCH different.
Massive opportunity is at your feet and it feels exactly as it always does to the vast majority of people – scary and doubtful. Even if I am wrong, it will feel exactly the same way when the real deal finally does arrive.
Fwiw, calling for no more corrections of more than 5% is what you should recognize as “top talk” – no different than “this time is different” or “we have a new plateau of prosperity.”
It happened in, ’29, ’65, ’99, and ’07, as well as countless lesser tops.
See the stock exchanges of Venezuela, Weimar and Zimbabwe.
It’s called inflation. Credit will flow to the path of least resistance. In this case, the flow path is being intentionally diverted towards equities. Yes, at some point the US stock market loses out in nominal terms, but that day is not now
And of course we can correct a few percent right here. We are due for a technical correction, consolidation. But I don’t think it will end up and anything more than a blip.
meant to say real terms
Difference is this time there is not just an implicit Fed put. There is an express one. The US stock market fails when the USD system fails. The whole damn market is backstopped by the full faith and credit.
Actually, that’s not called inflation; that’s called hyperinflation. The two are very different.
The first manifestations of hyperinflation are clearly showing themselves in the stock market. But, when you have printing presses for the 3 largest economies in the world, you can manage markets for a long long time. Watch, as soon as some idiot crows about the bond bubble collapsing, we will miraculously get a stock market correction and rates will drop way lower than they should relative to stock valuations. I know this is cynical as hell, but that is the reality. Until the SHTF in Germany, Japan or the US, the US stock market will not correct more than 10%.
I sold Intel by mistake thinking I was opening another order to sell yesterday and it is up another $1 per share. Made about $2 per share. My Intel target was much higher at 38.
GDX is still to high to get into it. 16 to 19 might be the right area.
How about at 0, would that represent even more value to you???
What a joke.
It used be only $12. Gold has more downside left.
I was asked the other day what would it take for me to be bullish again on gold.
My answer is very simple: rising prices.
I do not say that flippantly or sarcastically.
It’s the truth.
Until gold can start rising in price, consistently, for long stretches of time it is still in a bear market.
When corrections are healthy, relatively shallow and short, then I will turn bullish again.
The ease in which the bears were able to take gold down this last month should convince anyone that gold is still in a bear market.
Based on my seventeen years following gold it is easy to see when gold is in a bull market.
It doesn’t take technical expertise, knowing Elliot Wave counts, or having a superior knowledge of fundamentals.
Prices rise, they have healthy pullbacks, and there is enough skepticism to keep enough people out of the market while it continues to rise.
It is very easy to spot.
We are not there yet, far far from it. It’s not even debatable.
Some people will claim the recent uptrend and subsequent pullback are how fledgling bull markets begin.
You can speculate to try to get ahead of it if that is true, but I see no reason to try to catch a falling knife.
$1170 is now strong resistance. Gold is going backwards.
So to repeat what Rick said so eloquently, gold looks like hell.
And silver the worst part of hell.
Let the attacks begin…
It is certainly not in a bull market. It has dropped about $223 from the peak and that cannot be a correction in an uptrend. It should have turned up from $1300.
Big turns take some time and this one is off to a better start than the one that began in 1999.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&st=1997-12-12&en=2002-12-12&id=p62810995382
The real bull market is in the gold miners – priced in the dollar OR gold.
GDXJ:GLD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p84579629746
The daoly chart of the TNX/PRII has it right, where the 34-day EMA has crossed over the 233-day EMA, meaning a correction is due, and that a bounce in gold is meant to occur. If a quarter point rate hike by the Fed this week fails to blow out the speculation, then oil prices should drag gold along with it. Bond matkets also might bounce on a teversal in the markets, but having failed to action my volatility bet, I’m thinking markets wil hyperinflate at a glacial pace.
Interesting chart and comments, but regarding the last one, I still think stocks are in for a brutal bear market but probably no crash.
Meanwhile in Italy:
MILAN (AP) โ Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit, said Tuesday it will unload 17.7 billion euros ($18.8 billion) in soured loans, raise billions in new money and shed thousands of jobs as it seeks to re-launch the company under new management.
The move to reduce the bank’s risks and cut costs emerged in a new strategic plan that includes increasing by 6,500 โ to 14,000 โ the number of jobs it will cut by 2019.
“We have developed a plan which is pragmatic, with tangible and achievable targets, which depends mostly on cost and risk management levers which are firmly under our control,” CEO Jean Pierre Mustier told a presentation to the financial community in London .
The CEO referred repeatedly to the plan as “self-help,” saying it would create “a stronger, even better, more attractive bank.”
Investors seemed to welcome UniCredit’s plan, with shares in the bank jumping nearly 16 percent to 2.81 euros in Milan.
But nearer to home…..
Google’s Self-Driving Car Project Gets A New Name: Waymo
Associated Press – 4 minutes ago
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) โ The self-driving car project that Google started seven years ago has grown into a company called Waymo.
The new identity announced Tuesday marks another step in an effort to revolutionize the way people get around. Instead of driving themselves, people will be chauffeured in robot-controlled vehicles if Waymo, automakers and ride-hailing service Uber realize their vision within the next few years.
Waymo is within Google’s parent company, Alphabet, which was created last year to oversee far-flung projects that have nothing to do with Google’s main business of online search and advertising.
Google began working on its self-driving technology in 2009 in a secretive lab called “X” run by company co-founder Sergey Brin. Since then, its cars have covered more than 2.3 million miles while steered by a robot.
Here’s an ETF with a cute name,you probably have not heard about:
HAUD
iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Australia (HAUD)
$23.200.6562 | 2.91%DL
December 13, 2016 11:29 AM EDT
Volume: 11,475
Business Description
The investment seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Australia 100% Hedged to USD Index, which consists of stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange with the currency risk inherent in the securities included in the underlying index hedged to the U.S. dollar on a monthly basis. The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its assets in the component securities (including indirect investments through the underlying fund) and other instruments of the underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of the underlying index. It is non-diversified.
Address
iShares Trust, 400 Howard Street, San Francisco, CA, United States, 94105
USA has been up as much as 11.8% today even thought silver (SLV) is down well over 1%…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USA.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p66607437920
Also NIM-V up on huge volume!!
Yes! and Yes! ๐
It looks like the beginning of a real move…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NIM.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p23748891373&a=493440916
Good times are coming soon…
USA weekly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USA.TO&p=W&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p19233242427&a=493448349
Golden Cross time.
It feels like we’re at the pinnacle of the flux capacitor!
I like what I see for the turn in the slow stochastics, full stochastics and the changing of the guard starting on the ADX. Nice.
Matthew/Excelsior/CFS:
You have the formula from the other day. Here are some results to ponder
Irving Resources Inc. has received high-grade assays from surface samples recently collected at its newly acquired, 100-per-cent-controlled Omui gold-silver project, Hokkaido, Japan. As detailed in a news release dated Oct. 17, 2016, reconnaissance sampling focused on areas around the historic Omui and Hokuryu mines where high-grade epithermal Au-Ag veins were exploited prior to World War II. Irving staff with assistance from personnel from Mitsui Mineral Development Engineering Co. Ltd. (Mindeco) collected 130 rock chip samples.
At the Honpi (Main vein in English) occurrence, rock chip samples collected from float boulders of vein material returned exceptional assays including 480 grams per tonne gold (Au) and 9,660 g/t silver (Ag), 143.5 g/t Au and 2,090 g/t Ag, 67.6 g/t Au and 1,060 g/t Ag, 55.6 g/t Au and 290 g/t Ag, and 48.2 g/t Au and 1,030 g/t Ag. A further 14 samples assayed greater than 10 g/t Au and 13 samples assayed greater than 200 g/t Ag.
The highest grade sample is $23,000 a ton rock.
Very economic ore and high grades. Thanks Bob M.
I had posted their latest press release this morning on yesterday’s market wrap:
_______________________________________________________________________
Irving Resources Samples High-Grades at its Omui Gold-Silver Project, Hokkaido, Japan
(Marketwired โ Dec. 13, 2016) โ Irving Resources Inc. (CSE:IRV)
I’m just a neophyte when it comes to geology, but isn’t it normal for the boulders at surface to be a bit higher grade in many cases than the average grade of the underlying deposit?
What I normally see is rock chip samples at surface on a boulder or something that piqued the geo’s interest, but then average grades at about 1/3-1/2 of the grade. Even so, it would be incredibly well-endowed ore.
Thanks again sir.
We need the drills to see just what is there in terms of size and economics, but I don’t think there’s anything to the idea that boulders are (or aren’t) normally higher grade.
Ah yes….. Drills are the best “Truth Machine” .
However, with surface samples that high, it will pique the interest of the investing marketplace to be able to finance the drill program. It also may encourage a JV partner to assist with a drilling program. A few different options open up when the high grade is present.
Excelsior:
Actually the opposite tends to be true. Rocks at the surface tend to be leached out. Certainly the silver would leach out. Those sample would represent real values in the veins. Now the real issue is are the veins 50 cm or 6 meters?
Thanks Bob M. – It may just be that on one or two drill plays I followed that there were higher grades in the boulders and that colored my understanding in an incorrect way ๐
Matthew, upon further consideration, I agree that It’s probably different at every deposit as they are unique so there may be some with higher grade bolders that were moved too far from their deposits, so when they drilled it out it seemed lower grade. I get Bob’s point too that they would be lower grades if they had leached out.
** Hey, you can’t learn this stuff if you don’t ask the pros. Thanks guys.
Those grades are beyond impressive. That’s all I have to say about that.
Agreed.
The vix spiked around 9am from 12.4 to 13.14. A market turn may be around the corner.
Your Tax Dollars at non work:
EPA: ‘Data Gaps’ Block Verdict On Fracking, Drinking Water
By MATTHEW DALY – Associated Press – 4 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) โ Hydraulic fracturing to drill for oil and natural gas poses a risk to drinking water in some circumstances, but a lack of information precludes a definitive statement on how severe the risk is, the Environmental Protection Agency says in a new report that raises more questions than answers.
The report removes a finding from a draft issued last year indicating that fracking has not caused “widespread, systemic” harm to drinking water in the United States. Industry groups hailed the draft EPA study as proof that fracking is safe, while environmentalists seized on the report’s identification of cases where fracking-related activities polluted drinking water.
The final report, completed at a cost of $29 million over six years, takes pain to avoid conclusions.
“The report provides valuable information about potential vulnerabilities to drinking water resources, but was not designed to be a list of documented impacts,” the EPA said.
Fracking involves pumping huge volumes of water, sand and chemicals underground to split open rock formations so oil and gas will flow. The practice has spurred an ongoing energy boom but has raised widespread concerns that it might lead to groundwater contamination, increased air pollution and even earthquakes.
Tom Burke, EPA’s science adviser and a deputy assistant administrator, said in an interview that the removal of the phrase about “widespread, systemic” impacts came at the urging of the EPA’s Science Advisory Board.
“Data gaps did not allow us to quantify how widespread the impacts are,” Burke said.
Environmental groups have claimed that the finding of no widespread harm was inserted into the draft report at the insistence of the White House. President Barack Obama supports fracking as part of a wide-ranging energy strategy.
An EPA spokeswoman denied any political pressure. “This is an EPA document, not a White House document,” said spokeswoman Monica Lee.
Fracking opponents said the report confirmed what they have long argued โ that fracking threatens drinking water.
“We are glad EPA resisted oil and gas industry spin, followed the science and delivered the facts,” said John Noel, national oil and gas campaigns coordinator for Clean Water Action, an advocacy group. “EPA must take action to address these threats now.”
But the oil industry called the report an “absurd” reversal as the Obama administration leaves office.
“The agency has walked away from nearly a thousand sources of information from … technical reports and peer-reviewed scientific reports demonstrating that … hydraulic fracturing does not lead to widespread, systemic impacts to drinking water resources,” said Erik Milito of the American Petroleum Institute, an industry lobbying group.
Like the draft study, the final report found specific instances where poorly constructed drilling wells or improper wastewater management affected drinking water. Impacts generally occurred near drilling sites “and ranged in severity, from temporary changes in water quality to contamination that made private drinking wells unusable,” the EPA statement said.
The number of contamination cases was small compared to the large number of wells that are fracked nationwide, the EPA said.
The EPA assessment tracked water used throughout the fracking process, from acquiring the water to mixing chemicals at the well site and injecting so-called “fracking fluids” into wells, to collection of wastewater, wastewater treatment and disposal.
The report identified several vulnerabilities to drinking water resources, including fracking’s effect on drought-stricken areas; inadequately cased or cemented wells resulting in below-ground migration of gases and liquids; inadequately treated wastewater discharged into drinking water resources; and spills of hydraulic fluids and wastewater.
Congress ordered the long-awaited report in 2010, as a surge in fracking fueled a nationwide boom in production of oil and natural gas. Fracking rigs have sprouted up in recent years in states from California to Pennsylvania, as energy companies take advantage of improved technology to gain access to vast stores of oil and natural gas underneath much of the continental U.S.
U.S. stocks are nearing exhaustion. TLT is mostly flat and should catch a bid soon.
This Bud’s for you, b:
https://www.streetwisereports.com/pub/na/17206
It gives some perspective on the difference between the US and Canadian situations, and why Americans have taken less interest.
I just posted lower down GH, I saw that yesterday.
Thx tho.
Warren Irwin: A Rip-Your-Face-Off Uranium Rally Begins!
POSTED ON DECEMBER 12, 2016 BY COLLIN KETTELL
( $U $URPTF $NXE $NXGEF $CCJ $CCO are also discussed)
http://palisaderadio.com/warren-irwin-a-rip-your-face-off-uranium-rally-begins/
Thanks Excelsior,good interview CFS posted it yesterday,(canยดt read it all) ๐
Thanks,CFS
Yes, I saw CFS post it yesterday, but figured it would be good to post the interview again [with some of the companies discussed tagged underneath) under your Uranium post (which I had posted last week). No, you can’t read them all… Wink ๐
No harm in reading them again or posting them for people that missed them on prior blogs. Cheers!
Ok,you got me ๐
“No harm in reading them again or posting them for people that missed them on prior blogs.”
You are absolutely right.
Ever Upward!!
There is no better sector to be than Uranium โ NexGen
Andrew Nelson | about an hour ago
http://www.mining.com/web/there-is-no-better-sector-to-be-than-uranium-nexgen/
Uranium Energy Corp Receives Final Mine Permit for Its Burke Hollow ISR Project in South Texas
Corpus Christi TX, December 13, 2016 – Uranium Energy Corp. (NYSE MKT: UEC)
http://www.uraniumenergy.com/news/releases/index.php?&content_id=614
I watch UEX.TO and UWE.TO and both are up also. I own some UWE that I thought I was stuck in at 2.5 cents.
Yes I also hold a position in UEX but not UWE. I do have a position in NXE, UEC, UUUU, URE, URG, DNN, and occasionally swing trade PALAF. There are about 2-4 others I’ll be picking up (PENMF, WUC, BAN, and AL) further down the line. Cheers!
Goldman sees ‘bullish’ environment for Copper through 1H 2017
Mon Dec 12, 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-research-copper-goldman-idUSKBN1410WD
Platinum is in Play: A Review of Fundamentals, Technicals, and Equities
by @Newton on December 12, 2016
https://www.ceo.ca/@newton/platinum-is-in-play-a-review-of-fundamentals-technicals-and-equities
Gold Producers Have Underperformed And Will Continue to Lag โ How To Take Advantage Of The Recent Gold Correction
Palisade Research – December 13, 2016
Video Update: Gold Needs Stock Market Peak
Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA – 12/12/2016
“In this video we reexamine the negative correlation between Gold and equities and we also compare 2015-2016 to 1998-1999. There are some similarities between the two periods with respect to equities, emerging markets and Oil.”
https://thedailygold.com/video-update-gold-needs-stock-market-peak/
Yes the market is overbought, but watch, it will work off overbought by going sideways or even higher, similar to what the mining stocks did in February.
Ben Bernanke created the ultimate moral hazard when he explicitly said QE’s goal was to raise asset prices. Given that the world’s central banks having driven asset prices to the moon, do you think they will just stand by and watch their investment evaporate???
No, they are all in at this point. Like I have cynically said, I don’t think we will ever see a >10% decline in the US stock market until a monetary reset, and I doubt we will see >5% decline. The higher the market goes, perversely, the more incentive the CBs have in keeping it propped up given the amount of leverage in play. They know a stock market crash is game over for their ponzi scheme.
And most market participants know this. I mean, what was the downside in buying goldman sachs in 2008 if you knew they were TBTF??? When Jamie Dimon loaded up on JPM stock last year, did anyone doubt he knew exactly what he was doing? There is literally zero risk at this point in the US stock market if you are able to tolerate a 5% drawdown. The risk is found in fiat currency. But the powers that be know that if commodities exploded higher, it would also threaten their ponzi. So they have done everything in their power to keep a lid on commodities in order to maximize their monetary stimilus–the prime culprit being the BoJ conveniently starting a new round of epic QE in 2011.
At some point of course the law of supply and demand takes over. But CBs can keep this game going for a very very long time so long as they act in a coordinated fashion, as we have already seen.
Good points Spanky. I had forgotten Bernankes comment on QEs goal to raise asset prices. A part of me wishes you didnt remind me. With no limit on what they can do to artificially help their banking buddies, the CBs really right the rules to the game. Its just a matter of how long they can keep kicking the can for.
Also, what happens to all that QE that has been parked into certain assets by the banks? Will it ever filter down to the average citizen, and thus having an inflationary effect?
emc private placement was 28 cents i think.
it started trading yesterday at $3.00 and rose 10%
backing off a tad today.
Following potshares pays off yet again.
Interesting to see a couple articles @ 321 gold.
They have a bit of an idea about them, one fellow was 100% right imo concerning shares in the states compared to Canada.
Forget the states, use a dartboard for Canadian, better yet, buy them all.
Emblem Cannabis (EMC.V) lands on the exchange for $215m valuation
Chris Parry – December 12, 2016
http://www.equity.guru/2016/12/12/emblem-cannabis-emc-v-lands-on-the-exchange-for-215m-valuation/
thx ex.
I hadnt seen that.
I checked their site, some of these companies dont seem to free with info.
We have seen the same exact stock market behavior in Venezuela, Weimar, Zimbabwe. There is zero risk in nominal terms. If you have the absolute worst timing ever, you are limited to a max 10% drawdown. I do not expect that type of drawdown until the Dow hits 30,000+ though. Max will be 3-5%. Just buy every single dip in the US indexes. Use your ill gotten gains to dollar cost average into bullion.
Good tinin spanky.
Think I would use cash for the bullion.
ya never know.
Glad I did.
Consolidation And Confusion Often Precede Big Moves In Stocks
Like those charts. One thing not mentioned is the possibility of hyperinflation.
Thanks.
SLV:GLD should fill the Dec. 7 gap tomorrow…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p65892967921&a=475491593
How I do the moving averages is as follows. 2.618 to the power of 2.618 is close to a prime number of 13. S we start with 13. 13 X 2.618 is close to 34. 34 X 2.618 is close to 89. 89 X 2.618 is close to 233. When the 34 EMA (hourly-daily-weekly) crosses the 233 EMA, you can expect a reversal.(probably 89) When the 34-week EMA crosses the 13-week EMA, you can expect the beginning of a trend. The 89-hourly-daily-weekly is a typical test. The 233 EMA is a longer moving average and must be respected as such.
That’s interesting. Does that mean that you have little or no use for the Fib numbers that are skipped?
I agree about the 89 EMA. One example: When gold broke down from the 89 EMA and SMA, it was only the 89 EMA that got backtested…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=13&id=p62568412158
M, it’s the crossovers that are the most important, rather than picking a price point at the high or the low. Weekly moving averages are the trend. Daily and hourly charts are the interim activity. I toss the other moving averages to simplify the charts. The longer the time interval, the less moving averages you really need. For example, it makes no sense to have moving averages all over the monthly chart, so you simply do without.
In the example of the weekly gold chart, prices are subject to heady swings and might need longer term MA’s as a reference point. Some people only use daily charts, and rely on simple MA’s like 50 and 200. That’s fine, the EMA’s pattern I use graduate from shorter term to longer term and are a reference point, rather than a leading indicator. The rule of thumb would be to use fewer MA’s rather than more and not to look at technical points on a chart as you would tea leaves in the attempt to predict absolute price points.
Thank you, I appreciate it.
Very interesting points to consider FranSix.
Thanks
Interesting FranSix. What about 144?
Thanks,FranSix
Oil was looking too weak so I sold my USO and BP at some nice gains plus XOP. It feels like it wants to head to 51 to 52 area.
I sold my GUSH yesterday and today too.
It has become far too easy to make money on stocks. Every trade I have done in the past many weeks has been profitable. Like taking candy from a baby. This could be a warning sign of a big drop coming soon in the S&P. 2290 to 2295 might be the limit and then down to 2100. I have started lightening up and taking profits but holding about a 19,000 profit on AT&T that I am hesitant to sell as I need a 5% income stock for the long term.