Weekend Show – Sat 17 Dec, 2016

The Issues Still Facing The US Economy

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This week saw the Fed raise rates and issue a more hawkish tone than the markets expected. We saw markets take a hit after the Fed rate hike and ended up slightly down for the week. Gold and silver got hit hard following the Fed statement as well a the stocks. Our conversations this week focus on the overall optimism in the USD and US markets as well as some reasons to temper those outlooks.

  • Segment 1 & 2: Chief Market Analyst at the Lyndsay Group Peter Boockvar shares his thoughts on the overwhelming optimism for the US economy. We look at the bond bubble and opportunities for investors.
  • Segment 3: Brien Lundin outlines some of the long-term issues that the US economy is still facing moving into 2017.
  • Segment 4: Avi Gilburt shares his big picture view on a general melt up in the markets.  


Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Peter BoockvarBrien LundinAvi GilburtCory FleckAl Korelin
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  1. On December 17, 2016 at 2:23 am,
    CFS says:
    • On December 17, 2016 at 7:28 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Maguire makes some great points……..this should be a great listen to for those discouraged metal bugs.

    • On December 17, 2016 at 11:22 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Cash For Silver (CFS) representin’….

  2. On December 17, 2016 at 2:30 am,
    Skeeta says:

    Thanks for your efforts as always fella’s for the show.

  3. On December 17, 2016 at 3:03 am,
    Bob UK says:

    Enjoyed listening to Avi. It is time for a bike ride, 5 miles and then egg & chips with a mug of tea in a cafe. I know how to live the high life 🙂

    • On December 17, 2016 at 8:49 am,
      Bruce W McLaughlin says:

      Depends on the bike and why only 5 miles? barely enough time to reflect on what has been said.

    • On December 17, 2016 at 1:06 pm,
      Tad says:

      I fancy that too… with HP sauce.
      Definitely not the bike ride.

    • On December 18, 2016 at 1:43 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Nice Bob UK. Agreed, this was a good segment from Avi. I’m making a spot of tea as well.

  4. On December 17, 2016 at 3:06 am,
    Jay says:

    Gold and silver manipulation is a fact. Case closed.

    Doesn’t mean we can’t still make money or that technicals or cycles are useless, but some on here are looking ignorant, or purposefully naive, about what’s going on.

    Have a great weekend.


  5. On December 17, 2016 at 3:24 am,
    CFS says:

    FRIDAY gold fix on SGE

    Shanghai morning fix Dec 16 (10:15 pm EST: $ 1172.60

    NY ACCESS PRICE: $1131.10 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $41.50


    Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am EST.second fix:$ 1172.91



    • On December 17, 2016 at 3:31 am,
      Jay says:

      Thanks CFS. The paper market is such a scam. Position size limits not enforced, etc., etc. Just hope it breaks soon so we can get back to an honest (at least more honest 🙂 market.

      • On December 17, 2016 at 5:25 am,
        GH says:

        Ditto. Thanks for keeping this on our radar, CFS.

        • On December 17, 2016 at 7:36 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:


          • On December 17, 2016 at 1:07 pm,
            Tad says:

            Ditto ditto

  6. On December 17, 2016 at 3:56 am,
    Markedtofuture says:

    “When Gold Goes Above 1430 We Whack It”

    Also, for the first time a gold producer has been added to the class action of those claiming losses in gold trading due to the manipulation. Compania Minera Dayton, SCM the Chilean subsidiary of Australian resources company Lachlan Star is said to have “sold gold on many of the specific days on which Plaintiffs demonstrated manipulation of gold investments” totaling $287.4 million over the period 2004 to 2013.


    • On December 17, 2016 at 4:30 am,
      jhpace1 says:

      While I heartily applaud the long-lasting efforts of GATA, I despise the gold miner executives who have folded to the financial banks for decades. In order to dig a mine, you need capital. The banks always short the miner’s stocks just before financing them, making money twice over. Then the miner is “servant to the lender”, i.e., the ones setting the price for gold and silver in London and New York City. The miner can’t even make a profit because of the daily naked shorting and price fixing of the paper market for his commodity. It’s disgusting.

      And to the people who say “Well that’s the way the world works; that’s the way the cookie crumbles. Get used to it!” No! You can refuse to deal with a criminal. Hopefully the physical-only exchanges being opened up will collapse the fiat-callers of gold and silver.

      • On December 17, 2016 at 4:42 am,
        Jay says:

        Re: banks’ leverage over miners, I don’t fully understand the interplay of lending with the banks’ manipulation, but Andrew Maguire explained it a bit in his interview with Jay Taylor (link below)

        Andrew is involved in a new company/ exchange that’s to launch next year, for commercial players like miners only I believe. Andrew mentioned that this will help free the miners from being dependent on the banks who are at the same time manipulating the value of their production.

        It’s too slow for all of us, but it does look like some fatal cracks are beginning to emerge in the manipulation racket.


  7. On December 17, 2016 at 4:33 am,
    CFS says:

    We clearly have both a real estate bubble, and, by historical standards. a bond bubble.
    Indeed, locking at historical measures of stock valuations, one could argue the stock market is over-valued.
    Can Trump’s actions get the economy growing fast enough before bubbles start bursting?
    Puplava discusses the Big Picture:

    • On December 17, 2016 at 5:28 am,
      GH says:

      Bubbles need to burst, imo. It won’t be pleasant, but blowing them even bigger just means an even worse day of reckoning later.

  8. On December 17, 2016 at 6:42 am,
    Glenfidish says:

    Thanks for the show!

    I keep seeing builders and more builders as far as the eye can see here in toronto, and more specific Ontario. It’s relentless and I keep asking myself who is buying at these prices and how can they justify there salaries? If and when the big storm comes most will be hit hard and will pay dearly. You have a glut of brokers upon brokers mortgaging these homes to third parties and lenders. I can’t phantom the big banks handing out approval on these mortgages. Historically is an understatement in how long this has been going on and if government will ever step aside and promote more inflation in the housing.

  9. On December 17, 2016 at 6:43 am,
    Glenfidish says:

    I meant if government will ever step aside and stop promoting more inflation.

    • On December 17, 2016 at 7:16 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Glen, you know and I know that now is not the time to purchase real estate in Toronto. When the crash hits I wouldn’t touch real estate here for 8 to 9 years after the fact, that is usually how long it takes for housing to completely correct, that was true after the bust we had starting in late 1989 to early 1990, and housing has gone much more parabolic this time. In 1999 I spent six months looking at real estate with a broker and there were no offers and places could be purchased for at least 10% below asking. It is just like the stock market, buy when there is fear.

  10. On December 17, 2016 at 6:50 am,
    Xriva says:

    I wonder if Yellen will be replaced once Trump enters office and how that might impact / change protections for future rate hikes.

  11. On December 17, 2016 at 6:54 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Radical Gold Underinvestment 3
    Adam Hamilton – Dec 16, 2016


  12. On December 17, 2016 at 6:59 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Percentage Growth in Major Currencies in 2016 (Dec. 16, 2016)

    Silver Percentage Growth in Major Currencies in 2016 (Dec. 16, 2016)


  13. On December 17, 2016 at 7:05 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Palisade Global’s Big Bet On Yellow Cake
    Palisade Research December 15, 2016


  14. On December 17, 2016 at 7:16 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Lithium’s Boom Year: 2016 in Review
    2016 was a big year for the lithium sector. Here’s what three analysts had to say about the lithium market in 2016.


  15. On December 17, 2016 at 7:16 am,
    CFS says:

    I can’t remember if I posted this before from Thursday with Brent Cook:


    • On December 18, 2016 at 5:54 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I am simply amazed that Brent Cook had no idea who Avino Silver & Gold, Americas Silver, Bayhorse Silver, or Northern Shield was, and hasn’t been following Pure Gold’s results, or didn’t mention Kootenay Silver’s takeover of Northair mining.

      This is exactly why one can’t just rely on a guru or “expert” if they don’t even know some of the main stories in the JR space. (blows my mind how some people have such tunnel vision that are at all these mining shows and spend all day in the mining industry). Wow!

      • On December 18, 2016 at 9:40 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        To be clear, I respect and enjoy Brent Cook a great deal, but am just confused how he can be at mining shows for years with these companies speaking & exhibiting, and spend all day in the mining industry and not at least know who some of these companies are. I guess people get into their bubble of stocks and tune the rest out, but they’ve had a good track record with some of the takeovers that they did call for their subscribers ahead of time.

        However, they may be missing the action in the Silver mining space. Brent mentioned $FSM Fortuna and $EXK Endeavour Silver as the 2 #Silver #miners he’d recommend, and both are absolutely solid companies, but everyone writing in on that interview was asking for “his edge” that he mentioned, and for his focus on undervalued smaller deposits and development stage Jr miners.

        That safe Silver mining answer if translated to #Gold stocks would have been like recommending $AUY Yamana & $AEM Agnico Eagle (they’re nice enough, but already on everyone’s radar and more properly valued by the marketplace). I realize you can’t follow them all, but wow, he needs to spend some time with the Silver “Wing-Nuts”and brush up a bit on the sector.

        * What I took away was that there is still plenty of opportunity left in the mining sector when the experts don’t know many of the players on the field. In particular, when new investment money starts finding it’s way into the sector over the next few years, these stocks will have some much room to grow.

        • On December 18, 2016 at 11:12 pm,
          Matthew says:

          To be fair, Brent thinks global warming is man-made and an important issue. So we shouldn’t be too hard on him or others with similar deficits. 😉

          • On December 18, 2016 at 11:24 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I do like Brent. It just surprised me a bit, because he so plugged into the Jr mining sector. If he didn’t know some of those companies, then the average commodities-friendly investor surely hasn’t taken notice of many of them yet. That bodes well for the future new buyers once the momentum picks up over the next few years.

    • On December 18, 2016 at 9:51 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Brent’s conversation with Craig also pointed out that he felt that Brazil Resources (now GoldMining Inc), First Mining Finance, and Auryn Mining were all bigger on marketing than the reality of the economics of their deposits. He was still complimentary of management, thinks the valuations are a bit high on those companies.

  16. On December 17, 2016 at 7:29 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Montana rejects Tintina’s mine permit application again $TAU
    Cecilia Jamasmie | about 21 hours ago


    • On December 17, 2016 at 7:30 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Taliban says ok for China to develop huge Afghan copper mine
      But U.S.-backed Afghan government says it “isn’t the Taliban’s job” to protect the Mes Aynak copper deposit
      Andrew Topf | about 11 hours ago


    • On December 17, 2016 at 7:31 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Zinc Rally Driven by Demand for Better Cars in China and India
      Prices for base metal are up 70% this year


      • On December 17, 2016 at 7:33 am,
        Excelsior says:

        6,000 Words with Doug Ramshaw, Vendetta Mining $VTT
        By Peter @Newton Bell, 15 December 2016


        • On December 17, 2016 at 7:34 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Canada Zinc Metals Corp. Announces Closing of $2.8 Million Financing
          by @fscwire on December 15, 2016


          • On December 17, 2016 at 8:25 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Speculation causes Arizona Mining shares to tumble (AZ)
            by Salma Tarikh

            “The biggest challenge is not the metallurgy but rather overcoming the anti-mining lobby which will stage from the nearby community of Patagonia,” John Kaiser, author of Kaiser Research Online, said in an email.

            “With regard to the manganese level, according to Jim Gowans this is not a fatal flaw, simply an issue that has to be dealt with in the smelter arrangements for the concentrate,” Kaiser continues. “Ironically, both issues become less important the bigger the project becomes. The key to becoming so big is securing the ability to ramp into the deposit rather than rely on a shaft to hoist the ore.” If the company can do this, Kaiser believes Taylor could become of “strategic importance to the metal supply future of the United States.”


    • On December 17, 2016 at 8:48 am,
      Dragonite says:

      Excelsior, several my “good” uranium stocks went up significantly in last few weeks. Do you see a reason?


      • On December 17, 2016 at 9:18 am,
        Matthew says:

        I’d say that it’s because uranium has bottomed, or close to it, and positions are being established with confidence.

        • On December 17, 2016 at 10:19 am,
          Excelsior says:


          1) Bottom fishing in the sector by value investors. It’s been way oversold.
          2) Several articles out that Trump will be positive for Nuclear power
          3) Some of the Japanese Restarts came back on-line.

          • On December 17, 2016 at 10:40 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The spot price of Uranium also moved up a bit (that didn’t hurt either) 🙂

          • On December 17, 2016 at 11:09 am,
            dragonite says:

            Excelsior, the spot price of U is too unreliable and useless. I have been trying to add UR Energy, UEX and Denison Mines on dip. It is so hard. I only got 2000 URE only. But I did load a lot of UEX. I am very frustrated.

            How do you think about Paladin. I know their operation is in Africa and their cost is around $60, but if they can survive, it would be a good buy. But I am hesitating now.

          • On December 17, 2016 at 11:13 am,
            dragonite says:

            My frustration is not price going down. It is the price refuse to go down despite Uranium price goes dow for the several stocks I deemed good. such as Cameco, Denison, UEX, URE.

          • On December 17, 2016 at 1:27 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Dragonite. Yes the Uranium mining marketplace is the definition of frustraing 🙂

            I talk quite often with traders and longer term holders of Uranium miners and it is very easy to zig when one should zag. Personally, I’ve been trading in an out of about 8-10 Uranium stocks for some time, and have lower cost basis positions in all of them except Energy Fuels that caught me off-sides in September on that financing and depressing market outlook release. Luckily I’ve averaged down and trimmed some back out on the recent strength and am back to near parity.

            Currently I have solid positions in Energy Fuels, Denison, Ur-Energy, NexGen, UEC Corp, Uranium Resources, and UEX Corp.

            Yes, I’ve swing traded Paladin a number of times this year successfully, but went bigger recently and got burned bad and lost all the gains on that one. I honestly don’t know if Paladin will survive, even though it is such a huge player, but it desperately needs higher prices. Like you mentioned they’ll be an amazing buy at these levels IF they survive, and I’m not sure if they will roll-back their shares at one point.

            Other Uranium companies I’m considering picking up are Peninsula Energy, Western Uranium, Bannerman Resources, GoviEx Uranium, Toro Energy, ALX Uranium, Berkley Energy, Centrus Energy , and Anfield Resources. There are a lot of people jazzed about Skyharbour Resources so I may give them a closer look.

      • On December 17, 2016 at 9:21 am,
        Jay says:

        Hi. FWIW, in addition to any here, there are some good, recent interviews on uranium, mostly with company spokesmen, on YouTube over the last couple of months, if you want to search for them.

      • On December 17, 2016 at 9:21 am,
        Matthew says:

        That’s probably what the action in USA is telling us about silver. It finished the week with ten times the percentage gain that silver did.


        • On December 17, 2016 at 9:23 am,
          Matthew says:

          Correction: week should be day.

          • On December 17, 2016 at 9:26 am,
            Matthew says:

            USA finished the week 28% higher while silver fell 4.43%.


          • On December 17, 2016 at 10:42 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I’ve been impressed with strength in the Silver stocks despite the falling metals prices

            * Here are the Silver stocks that had positive green day on Friday to end a wild week in the Precious Metals markets.

            Excellon Resources Inc. $EXN (+22.30% gain)
            Plata Latina Minerals Corporation $PLA (+20.00% gain)
            Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. $SCZ (+17.65% gain)
            Americas Silver Corporation $USA (+16.36% gain)
            Kootenay Silver Inc $KTN (+13.56% gain)
            Golden Minerals Company $AUM (+11.11% gain)
            BAYHORSE SILVER INC $BHS (+10.00% gain)
            Dolly Varden Silver Corporation $DV (+8.33% gain)
            Silver One Resources Inc. $SVE (+7.59% gain)
            Alexco Resource Corp. $AXU (+6.40% gain)
            Bear Creek Mining Corporation $BCM (+6.28% gain)
            Azarga Metals Corp. $AZR (+5.56% gain)
            SilverCrest Metals Inc. $SIL (+5.00% gain)
            Maya Gold and Silver Inc. $MYA (+3.85% gain)
            Great Panther Silver Limited $GPL (+2.94% gain)
            Metallic Minerals Corp. $MMG (+2.63% gain)
            Trevali Mining Corporation $TV (+2.36% gain)
            Levon Resources Ltd. $LVN (+1.92% gain)
            Silver Wheaton Corp. $SLW (+1.88% gain)
            GoGold Resources Inc. $GGD (+1.85% gain)
            Coeur Mining, Inc. $CDE (+0.89% gain)
            Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. $ASM (+0.81% gain)
            Tahoe Resources Inc. $TAHO (+0.11% gain)

          • On December 17, 2016 at 11:02 am,
            dragonite says:

            I bought a few hundred First Majestic Silver the day before. I have more order on it and Endeavor silver and CEF.A. I sold quite a bit early in the year.

          • On December 17, 2016 at 11:19 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I’ve been recently adding back to Gold & Silver positions I sold in the Summer as well. In addition I’ve been “averaging up” in cost basis on positions I wanted a larger stake in, and also “averaging down” to lower my cost basis in a few that had turned against me, and thus increased the stake in those as well. Lastly, I’ve added in half dozen new names to my portfolio.

            Honestly, I’m feeling a bit over-exposed to the Gold and Silver miners at present, but many of the trades I just made in the last few weeks are already up nicely again. The only one that just gave me a real sucker punch was Argonaut gold. I had just added back a nice-sized position in the days right before they put out that press release about their environmental permit being declined on one of their development projects. The stock really tanked on Friday, but I scooped up some more to average down, as people have really over-reacted on that one. This has been dragging out for years, and while that is an important project, it is not their primary asset, or any of the main producing mines, and they have other development projects in the pipeline that haven’t been given any value by the market yet. Most importantly, the team at Argonaut have responses to the questions/concerns on the decision, and will be responding to submit a revised permit application. This too shall pass, but I’ve been buying while there is blood in the streets……

          • On December 18, 2016 at 2:50 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I was just reviewing these Corporate Presentation videos again, and remain very impressed with what is unfolding with Alexco.

            Alexco Resource Corp.(TSX: AXR)Clynton Nauman, President & CEO
            Precious Metals Summit – Nov. 2, 2016 (VIDEO – Corporate Slide Presentation)


          • On December 18, 2016 at 2:52 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Site visit: Alexco hopes Bermingham 
will drive Keno Hill revival


            “…Alexco’s goal since acquiring the land package in 2006 has been to revive the prolific district, and it hopes that a pair of discoveries will pave the way to sustainable production.

            The company took a brief run at restarting operations in 2011 when it began pulling ore from the Bellekeno silver mine, but by 2013 it had announced the “interim suspension of operations,” due to rising operating costs and falling silver prices.”

            “During a walk through Alexco’s quiet flotation mill, president and CEO Clynton Nauman says that the real upside for Keno Hill has always been exploration, and the company’s geological team has never stopped combing the 230 sq. km district for discoveries.”

            “In fact, Alexco nearly built its processing facility on top of its next potential source of mill feed, the Flame & Moth deposit, which the company found while shutting down operations three years ago….”

            “…Restarting operations would involve a “multi-mine” plan that would include the Bellekeno, Lucky Queen and Flame & Moth deposits. Nauman added, however, that Alexco wants to advance Bermingam as “quickly as realistically possible.”

            “We’re really in the unique position of hitting #production with minimal capital costs, and we have a high-grade resource developing at Bermingham,” Nauman said. “I’d caution it’s still at the discovery stage and there is plenty of work to do, but assuming we continue to see strength in the silver market, we’ll be well-positioned to look closely at redeveloping Keno Hill as we move into the new year.

            There are also other promising targets in the Bermingham area that offer similar geological potential, and I’d expect looking at those in 2017.”


        • On December 17, 2016 at 10:20 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Speaking of Silver Stocks.

          Here is a chart of some of the Silver Exploration stocks. It is interesting to note how most got up 400% 500% 600% and some over 1000% or higher in 2016. (not bad for the Wingnut Silver investors)

          * If you believe this metals rout won’t last forever then, look at the value proposition in some of these at current levels:

          $DEF $DV $SIL $BBB $SSV $REX $CLZ $SVB $MMG $BHS


          • On December 18, 2016 at 12:24 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Brixton Metals’ Gary Thompson
            Thompson shares highlights from the company’s 2016 exploration programs, what’s coming up for 2017, and long-term goals for high-grade precious metals projects.


          • On December 18, 2016 at 12:53 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Brixton Metals strategic investors are:

            Management 12%
            Rob McEwen 9%
            Institutional 7%
            US Global 6%
            Hecla Mining 6%
            Eric Sprott 5%
            Retail 55%

            I’m very interested in both of their properties and will be curious to see how they develop the prior producing Silver mines at Langis. They have a leg up on on traditional exploration companies in that all that prior infrastructure is already in place and that area was permitted for mining in the past.

            *The Langis mine: past production (1908-1989) of 10.4Moz of Ag at 25 opt, 358,340 lbs Co(Closed in 1990 due to silver price drop to $5/oz)

            * The Hudson Bay mine: past production (1905-1953) of 6.4Moz Ag at 123 opt. 185,572 lbs Co

            In addition, their Thorn properties in the Golden Triangle have been returning some nice high grade Gold & Silver samples and drill results, so I’m really interested to see what happens in the 2017 & 2018 exploration programs.


            Brixton Metals – Corporate Slide Presentation – December 2016


        • On December 18, 2016 at 8:55 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          (USA) Americas Silver fortunes head north

          Mining Journal – 05 Dec 2016

          “Transformed Americas Silver Corporation (TSX: USA) is on the verge of its biggest change yet, with a low-cost brownfield mine in Mexico set to complete the company’s transition from fourth cost-quartile producer in 2014 to first quartile, and substantial free cash generator, from 2018….”


  17. On December 17, 2016 at 9:06 am,
    Matthew says:

    Gold found some support at the intersection of two pitchforks. The one that surprised me a little is the Schiff fork (blue). It is unlike most Schiff forks in that it is not pointing in the same direction as the Andrew’s pitchfork that it is derived from (grey).


  18. On December 17, 2016 at 9:13 am,
    Paul L. says:

    Markets appear to have stabilized following the hawkish FOMC meeting earlier this
    week. The US dollar gave back some recent gains against G10 majors while AUDUSD
    and NZDUSD traded lower upon increased tensions in the South China Sea after China
    seized an unmanned underwater vehicle from the US Navy. North American rates
    ended the day unchanged apart from a modest selloff in the long-end. Canadian
    equities made a modest gain while major US indices closed below par. Crude oil ended
    the week on a firmer footing, up 2%, while gold prices saw a modest bounce to $1133/
    oz after sliding nearly $30 following the FOMC decision on Wednesday.
    US: Housing starts fell 18.7% m/m to 1090k in November, a far sharper drop than the
    market consensus for 1230k. With single unit starts only modestly lower, it was the
    pullback in the multi-unit segment which drove the headline result. Multi-units starts fell
    by 45% on the month, bringing the level below its trough from September. November
    building permits fell by 4.7% due to a sizeable decline in multifamily permits authorized.
    CA: Foreign purchases of Canadian securities increased to $15.7bn in October.
    Purchases were skewed towards debt securities, split roughly evenly between money
    market and bonds, while equity purchases amounted to just $1.8bn. Canadian
    purchases of foreign securities total $2.1bn, of which $1.7bn were equities.

  19. On December 17, 2016 at 9:16 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    I found it interesting that a couple weeks ago Avi was touting $16 silver as being his # that guaranteed one couldn’t lose. Now he’s dropped that figure to $15.50. Even so I appreciate his bullishness for almost everything in the coming year.

  20. On December 17, 2016 at 9:38 am,
    b says:

    AVIs thinking is higher US markets, sounds like lower gold.

  21. On December 17, 2016 at 10:07 am,
    Paul L. says:

    According to O’Leary who is visiting Switzerland, the Swiss investors are cashing out of US investments and going to about 34% cash as they don’t have confidence in US earnings and plan instead to invest in debt for US shale oil companies.

    • On December 17, 2016 at 10:54 am,
      b says:

      I heard Oleary say he keeps 5% phyzz gold but wont touch a gold miner.
      Says they are the worst business managers he knows of, always looking for cash.
      I had to laff, he is right.

  22. On December 17, 2016 at 10:10 am,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Andrew Maguire (Audio) election Gold capping with the Indian experiment with the war on cash.

    India was a trial balloon to kill the gold market. It also kicked off a major black market. Folks are not bypassing government paper because of lack of trust.


  23. On December 17, 2016 at 10:19 am,
    Paul L. says:

    The Fed is irresponsible if they are going with 3 hikes in one year. It will cause a recession, stock market crash and crash currencies of other nations.

  24. On December 17, 2016 at 10:24 am,
    James the lesser says:

    Matthew, your gray pitchfork goes completely against the Andrew Maguire video everyone is referencing.

    Either the pullback was completely technical and reasonable or it was an “attack” “war” “rinse” as Andrew Maguire claims.

    Is he a gold pumping swamp creature or just a lousy technician?

    • On December 17, 2016 at 10:46 am,
      Matthew says:

      It’s funny that you mention the one pitchfork on that chart that is not in play right. As for Maguire, I don’t follow him but it seems to me that he reports what he sees and draws conclusions about it. He’s not clearly a pumper in my book.

      To me, a true pumper is someone who does not believe in what he’s promoting. Whether he’s long and intends to sell everything to suckers quickly or is pumping the opposite of what he is doing. Like you. You pump the hell out of the bearish case for gold yet are positioned like a raging bull. Your exposure is significant based on your words of a few years ago. However, the one thing that saves you from the “pumper” label, in my opinion, is that you’re as off-sides as any of your potential “victims.”

      Fundamentals ARE technicals; there’s no such thing as “completely” technical. The two are interlocked in a way that is both interesting and incredible. Most will never understand that.

      • On December 17, 2016 at 2:47 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Oops, first line should end with “…not in play right now.”

      • On December 18, 2016 at 5:13 am,
        GH says:

        The resonance between different time scales and different assets frequently blows my mind. Kinda like that Secrets in Plain Sight video. Many thanks for that reference :).

  25. On December 17, 2016 at 10:32 am,
    Paul L. says:

    GDX $14 to $16 could be a great safe buying zone. Gold near 1030 to 1050.

    • On December 18, 2016 at 5:41 am,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Paul, you good be very right about your GDX prognostication—-also, your silver thoughts. My technicals are suggesting that possibility. All I have to say is what I’ve been saying for some time; there is no magic elixir for the PMs in the near term. This investment area is for the patient.

  26. On December 17, 2016 at 10:38 am,
    Paul L. says:

    There is no way silver is going to the 2011 highs for a very very long time. It could take 10 years. Silver is headed to $15.

    • On December 17, 2016 at 11:38 am,
      GH says:

      I dunno, Paul, we’re not in normal times. Things could easily go nonlinear.

    • On December 18, 2016 at 10:53 am,
      Matthew says:

      If gold can bottom above last year’s low, then it will take more like two or three years.

  27. On December 17, 2016 at 10:42 am,
    Paul L. says:

    I remember one foolish expert on safehaven a few months back predicting $55 GDX when GDX was near $32. This idiot had this target to occur within about 1 to 2 weeks. People pay fools like this for subscriptions.

  28. On December 17, 2016 at 12:15 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    Paul, this “foolish expert” you mention I’m sure did a lot of damage to some people.

    Perhaps if I started my drain the swamp campaign sooner he would have popped up on my radar and saved a few people from financial ruin.

    Some people don’t like that I want to point out who these so called experts are and save some people from falling prey to their traps.

    But here it is another example of you shining the light on it.

    now watch the attacks begin

    • On December 17, 2016 at 1:20 pm,
      Paul L. says:

      I had a $19 target at that time on GDX while people were busy celebrating and looking for greater highs.

    • On December 18, 2016 at 5:09 am,
      GH says:

      No one denies there are scammers out there, James.

      By lumping people like Bo Polny with Rob Arnott and Rick Rule, you show you can’t tell the difference between an expert, a fool, and a snake oil salesman.

  29. On December 17, 2016 at 1:15 pm,
    Paul L. says:

    I just noticed Coca Cola is close to 52 weeks lows and a good buy and yields 3.35%.

  30. On December 17, 2016 at 11:51 pm,
    David Silver says:

    Anyone here care to know what Gary Savage has been doing this weekend? He has been eliminating all subscribers who ridicule him about his bad trades including myself and about ten others or more that I’m aware of. He’s running a complete dictatorship within his compound with a Napoleon syndrome attitude. He is also deleting negative comments on his free blog and then banning the posters! What a creep.

    • On December 18, 2016 at 9:49 am,
      Paul L. says:

      He has been completely wrong as I expected. He said this time it is different and he just knows (from his secret crystal ball??) this is the start of a big new bull market and he kept calling it a “baby bull” that will have small corrections and keep moving up. I remember commenting on the site that it is a bear market rally and he did not agree. If gold gets above 1400 I might believe it. It could take a year to get back to the last high but if it does not hold 1000 we could see 800’s and GDX at $10.

      • On December 18, 2016 at 11:34 am,
        Matthew says:

        Paul, the action indicates new bull more than bear market rally. The strength of the moves in the miners and silver relative to gold, and the strength of the tiny cap juniors relative to the safer larger miners, has been unlike that of any bear market rally.

        I learned long ago that watching the micro and nano caps is more useful than watching GDX when trying to get an idea about what the smartest money is doing. I don’t think that juniors like IPT.V would still be trading at 5 times the January low if this is just bear market action.

        Silver has given back 75% of its 2016 while IPT.V has given back just 62%. In absolute terms, silver has fallen 25% since its ’16 high while IPT has fallen 57%.

        It is too soon to conclude that the sector is not starting a new bull market.

        • On December 18, 2016 at 12:41 pm,
          b says:

          I saw ipt at 61 when you were saying 55, it went up a bit from there but its back down again.
          ipt is one that could drop quite a bit should gold continue down.

          about 1000 could still happen (maybe lower) if it does ipt should be a cheap one to buy.

  31. On December 18, 2016 at 8:28 am,
    Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

    David simply walk away from narcissists like Savage. They’ve lost the plot.

  32. On December 18, 2016 at 8:45 am,
    David Silver says:
  33. On December 18, 2016 at 9:05 am,
    Steele says:

    “The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence”. This quote is from the website of Dr. Brett Steenbarger, definitely an intelligent guy who truly knows what he’s doing. He is a trained psychologist and mainly writes on the psychology of trading.


  34. On December 18, 2016 at 10:25 am,
    David Silver says:

    Sorry here’s the top page:

  35. On December 18, 2016 at 11:06 am,
    Nick says:


    It’s interesting in my mind. Part of the reason that i got on board the gold is going higher trade is the doom and gloom in the broader global economy- more specifically how is the vast global indebtedness going to unfold??? In my mind the gold trade is assymetrical- with MASSIVE upside potential and limited downside potential. Whilst i understand that popularity with Gold ebs and wains (and we are going through an unpopular phase), I am honestly struggling to see why/how/when my original investment thesis has changed. Personally I am quitely confident that the Bull will resume…it’s just a matter of when. Any thoughts out there?

  36. On December 18, 2016 at 11:11 am,
    Paul L. says:

    A premium service to subscribe to predicting 1550 gold back in August. No one is qualified to forecast gold except god. I can forecast oil targets to within about a 50cents to $2 and sometimes right to the penny like the last 54.50 target I had but gold is impossible to forecast.

  37. On December 18, 2016 at 11:31 am,
    Paul L. says:

    Some comedy: http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/could-nugt-again-rise-over-2000share
    Short-Term GDX Forecast

    The GDX is looking to replicate the 2009 breakout. Moreover, all the Technical Indicators support that forecast. On-Balance Volume, RSI and CMF. Further, it appears GDX might soar over 70% to $55 from today’s price of $30 — per W. D. Gann’s Theory of Symmetry GDX might top $55 within the 5-6 months.

    But the big beneficiary would be NUGT, which is the 3X Long ETF for GDX. Consequently if GDX rises 70%, theoretically NUGT should go ballistic up +210% — already NUGT has soared 80% during the past couple of weeks from $50 to $90:

  38. On December 18, 2016 at 11:49 am,
    Matthew says:

    Early in the big run this year, I said to focus on the weekly charts. That includes using weekly closing prices. If we do that, gold still not quite retested the breakout of the downtrend that’s based on the 2014 top…


    As mentioned yesterday, gold is very likely to put in a right-translated intermediate term cycle – and that is bullish.

  39. On December 18, 2016 at 12:07 pm,
    Paul L. says:

    A few years back when Apple got near $800 before the 1 for 7 split investors and the financial experts on websites were aiming for $1,000 when it was clearly in a big bubble with the 200 day moving average near 385. I had mentioned a $385 target to my friends and on some sites and it came down right to around 375 or 377 and bounced from there. All bubbles eventually burst especially when a chart looks to spectacular just like GDX.

  40. On December 18, 2016 at 12:36 pm,
    b says:

    I heard gold described as a “rolling bottom” today.
    not real good for gold bulls.

  41. On December 18, 2016 at 12:48 pm,
    CFS says:

    I do not have corroboration, but I was told London is shipping about 25 oz of silver to China for every oz of gold.
    My contact says, one should not focus on gold being shipped to China, but on the amount of silver being shipped there, which has increased a lot recently.
    I have not been able to find verifiable data on the volume of silver being shipped from London to China.
    It does make sense, however:
    For gold: London price: $1134.59, SGE price: $1179.51
    Premium = 3.17%
    For Silver: London price: $16.06, SGE price: $17.81
    Premium = 10.90%
    The Chinese are paying about three times a higher premium for silver compared to gold.

    • On December 18, 2016 at 1:16 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Dumping of US treasury bonds , in the amount of $403 billion, gives them a little more stash to play with, now they can afford to pay a premium to get real stuff.

  42. On December 18, 2016 at 3:21 pm,
    Matthew says:

    After the crash of 2008, silver went on to move 30% above the 25 month MA in 2009. It did the same thing in 2016 after bottoming in 2015. In both instances, silver then plunged 25% to test the 25 month MA. As we know, after that test in 2009, silver then went up 240% in just over a year.

    Monthly silver:


  43. On December 18, 2016 at 3:38 pm,
    Power Corrupts says:

    2 of 4 criteria that correlate well with impulsive bull markets in XAU are currently unfavorable to such an advance. That will probably change later this year but for now there are difficult headwinds.

    • On December 18, 2016 at 3:48 pm,
      Matthew says:

      That is true. If it weren’t, there wouldn’t be so much bearishness among retail investors and pros alike.

  44. On December 18, 2016 at 4:12 pm,
    Power Corrupts says:

    Right, although bearishness is the sentiment caused by the feedback loop of falling prices. It is unlikely that prices will rise dramatically leading to a bullish feedback loop until a couple of fundamental correlates reverse course. That may happen later in 2017…

    • On December 18, 2016 at 4:48 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I believe that it absolutely will happen. Those who are less sure should wait until things look better to get positioned.

      There are many approaches to assessing the odds but most people need to see clear strength before they act.

  45. On December 19, 2016 at 8:15 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDXJ has followed my arrow perfectly. I have not moved that blue arrow since I drew it two weeks ago.

    When I first posted the chart, it was to show what was possible. Unfortunately, I did not make the call that it would likely happen.


  46. On December 19, 2016 at 8:20 am,
    Matthew says:

    SLV just broke out of a small downtrend that began on Friday.

    3 minute chart: