Technical and fundamental outlooks for US Markets and Precious Metals
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In the first hour of the weekend show we focus on the US markets and the precious metals. The markets stalled just short of the 20,000 Dow level that has been plastered all over financial sites. We also saw volatility continue to fall and hit levels not seen in the past 4 years. As for the the precious metals they continue to get hit. We have technical outlooks as well as some comments on the underlying equities.
We hope everyone has an amazing holidays! Spend time with your family and friends and focus on all the good in your world 🙂
- Segment 1: Fund Manager Dana Lyons discusses the depressed VIX and the turn we saw in the bond market in 2016.
- Segment 2: We get an update on the recent highest grade drill results and what to look forward to in 2017 from Mariana Resources CEO Glen Parsons.
- Segment 3: Jordan Roy-Byrne shares his technical outlook for gold and the dollar.
- Segment 4: We wrap up the first hour with Brent Cook and his outlook for resources stocks in 2017.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
“Gold is in its’ longest bear market ever.” – just evidence of the manipulation.
“The dollar cannot get stronger too quickly…would do the job of rate hikes” – it’s a race to the bottom for fiat currencies in the name of exports.
One way China and the U.S. can come to terms with trade disputes is for China to simply depeg the Yuan. In other news, the end to the gold bear market was December, 2015. We are seeing a higher low, which would not be abnormal given the context. The TNX/PRII has had a spectacular rebound after reversing trend. Both the KST and the ROC are not holding out any hope of a sustained bear market
At the very least, it’s a tradable low for gold better than last year.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/is-gold-setting-up-for-a-rally/
Agreed. I’m curious to see if we’ll get the first quarter like we have the last few years. I’ve been adding to the positions that I trimmed back into the summer rally.
In addition, if Gold bottoms somewhere in this general area and bounces, then it will have formed a large double-bottom from roughly where it bottomed last year. That would be a positive, and may become longer term support. (especially if it bottoms here above the 2015 low of $1045.40)
You know how you make a small fortune in gold?
Start with a large one.
Sentiment is in the toilet for a reason, and it’s always the season.
“I know how you feel Charlie Brown, I never get anything I want for Christmas.
I get a bunch of toys and clothes and things.”
“What is it you want Lucy?”
“Real Estate”
Lucy knew the place to be all those years ago was Real Estate.
She didn’t say gold.
Stick to Real Estate and quality dividend paying stocks.
Over the years you will become wealthy.
You want to trade?
I have some Marvel comics you might be interested in
JTL: And what happens to you sweet deal in RE when interest rates go back to normal rates? Right! RE goes in the tank.
I hope you own a lot. I was buying your gold on Friday at $1130. We will see in a month who the swamp rat is.
Yes RM We all got a sliver or three of JTL’s bullion. Very best for Christmas, A
Gold just can’t be forecasted accurately by anyone but looks like it is headed to 1000 if the stock market keeps climbing. It is just gambling and not an investment for the short or medium term.
ditto……no one can forecast accurately……….and amen
Deutsche Bank Whistleblower Eric Ben-Artzi Explains What it Takes to Blow the Whistle on Fraud
Ben-Artzi: “The problem is not that you have misbehavior on Wall Street. It’s that you have misbehavior by the people who are supposed to enforce the law, by the prosecutors, by the regulators.”
Bill Mitchell @mitchellvii …. Not only does Trump lead from the front, he’s already deep inside enemy lines and the battle hasn’t even begun.
I agree. Trump has fooled a lot of nominal conservatives.
I have finally joined others here and have read Robert Moriarty’s book, Nobody Knows Anything. To get right to the point, there’s something in it for all investors and I recommend it.
The average investor will benefit greatly from it while those with a long history of success will welcome the valuable reminders and additional food for thought.
No one will agree with everything any author writes, but so what? Bob presents an approach that is sound and can make anyone a little better and most people a lot better.
It’s also virtually free and takes little time to read, so you can’t go wrong with it from any angle.
It’s at times like this that it really pays to be a contrarian investor.
Matthew…thanks for the positive feedback. I’ll give it a shot.
https://www.amazon.com/Nobody-Knows-Anything-Investing-Experts/dp/1533087148
Matthew:
Thank you for the review. It means a lot to me and it’s nice of you to do for the board.
‘Nobody knows anything’ has been added to my Christmas reading which currently includes Lucifer’ Banker by Bradley Birkenfeld and the Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe.
While we’re tipping our hats to Bob M for all good ideas and info he shares with the mining community…. Here was a great recent article. Well done sir.
Bob Moriarty: Bigger Buying Opportunity In Precious Metals Now Than 11 Months Ago
by Ceo Technician |December 25, 2016
EX, bought SVBRF 12K @ .176 Thursday
Nobody knows anything, including him.
Those who can’t do, teach,
Those who can’t teach, teach gym.
Nobody ever wrote a book that said just keep doing what your doing.
Its a good book JTL, actually common sense.
Buy what people dont want sell it when they cant get enough of it.
In the recent run up, I bought a half cent share (down from 75 cents, nobody wanted it, it jumped 2500%) (nobody wanted pot shares, they jumped 600%, in days)
I used to own retail outlets, one of my repeated saying to customers was “get it while its hot”, think about it, I was selling when people wanted it, the price was high, as soon as they didnt want it the price dropped like a brick.
Bobs thinking can be applied to alot of scenarios.
Its a good book.
Great book and an “easy read” Thanks R.M.
b.. Do you follow ..NF-V (pot share) Took a big ..run last month from .09.. back to .10
I hadnt heard of it Ann, I searched but couldnt find it. Tried NF, NF.V, NF-V
unfortunate as I have been looking for 1 that was pennies.
Can you give me the name?
b.. New Age Farm.. NF. CN. Let me know what you think!! Thx.
Sorry b…New age farm.com. NF-CSE
I found them on google.
They are a “support” company, like NSP 35 cents.
They dont actually grow from what I could see.
I havnt put any effort into figuring out “support” companies.
I think the cash is going to come from crops.
Kilos per year is the main thing I think.
The pot industry is not like the gold rush when the hardware sales made the cash, its pot ya want.
I would imagine to investigate these support companies would be the same thing as investigating…a book business? How much in sales? cost for sales? Managers etc
Sorry Ann, but an opinion for a company like this would take me a few hours to come up with.
Maybe Im a slow thinker.
Hey b.I find too many people are lumping hemp and pots together and I might be wrong but I think they are entirely separate entities.I bought some of NSP hemp protein to check it out.Not bad but certainly not pot.lol…..hemp products have potential but nothing like pot and I think the easy and safe way to play it is buying canopy and holding long term.Of course there will be short term rallies during the mania where anything pot related goes parabolic.Timing that will be the issue
Big dif between hemp and pot.
I like the food part of hemp seed tho. Lots of other uses of course.
Looks to me the growers(guys with their hands in the dirt) all seem to know what they are doing, which is logical as most of them were probly growing in hidden spots for years and still producing quality bud.
The pay offs might come from the best managed companies.
Right now anything grown is sold, 100% sales, the winners (i think) will be the managers that can “handle” billions of dollars well.
That kind of money can ruin some people. (crazy I guess)
Anyway, Canopy looks like they understand the business and are positioning themselves to take full advantage in the developing situation.
And those who know little just fill up space; I wish Big Al would limit your repetitive babble, James the lesser.
Thank-you b.. really appreciate your opinion!!
How’s that NUGT position, James?
Just give it a rest JTL.
I like Jordan Roy-Byrne.
He disagrees with people around here that say “the” low has happened, he figures we have a new low coming.
Ive followed Jordan for awhile, I have found him to be pretty accurate.
“Demand has fallen off a cliff”, tuff for PMs to go up when demand drops.
Maybe we get a bounce, might be smart to hold some cash until we get below $1000 tho.
I know my watch list will be quite a bit lower in price should gold drop another $100.
Some of the smartest people I know are calling for a test of the low. Bob Hoye, Steve Saville and JRB are all calling for a new low.
But at turns everyone is wrong and when you have a 29 year low in sentiment on gold, you have a turn. Right now.
Fundamentals and TA don’t call turns well. Sentiment does. And actually you should look for a useful idiot. There is one on every chat board and he always gets it wrong.
Exactly. And when experts all agree, you have one of the most powerful contrary indicators.
In August, 2009, I counted dozens of well known people who were all bearish stocks, many of whom were short. As expected, none had even a fleeting chance to cover those shorts in the black.
You know more than I do Bob, you could be right.
I have no idea which way gold is going to go, I gave up more than guesses long ago.
I do like JRB tho. Maybe its the haircut?
B:
He saves a lot of money on haircuts.
The move in the dollar this year hasn’t been nearly as strong as the 2014 move.
UUP daily:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=2&mn=7&dy=22&id=p70609333536&a=495538068
USD weekly (weakly 😉 )
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p13553167820&a=454858999
US dollar, weekly, up against fork and fibonacci fan resistance
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=2004-07-06&en=today&id=p73390689041&a=479870038
Also, it’s due to move down into a 3 year low in 2017.
Comanus Rising Podcast – December 24, 2016
Happy Holidays! In this episode of the Comanus Rising Podcast we talk about the week in gold and gold stocks, recap the year and talk about what we got right and wrong and wrap up with news from the Canadian Junior Exploration sector including news from: Anfield Resources ARY, Arizona Mining AZ, Dalradian Resources DNA, Questerre Energy QEC, Sunset Pacific Petroleum SPK, Knick Exploration KNX, GT Gold Corp GTT, Irving Resources IRV, Toro Oil & Gas TOO, Orocobre ORL, ML Gold MLG, Condor Petroleum CPI, Almadex Minerals AMZ, Mariana Resources MARL, West African Resources WAF, Sokoman Iron Corp SIC, Dundee Precious Metals DPM Diagnos Inc ADK, Northern Shield Resources NRN. We talk gold, silver, lead, zinc, copper, uranium, oil, lithium, natural gas.
I’m looking at a chart that starts in 1998. Ever since then there has been a direct correlation between the Japanese Yen and the price of Gold. This is one of those things that makes absolutely no sense to me.I know there are a bunch of very savy people here,perhaps someone could tell me why this is.
John K, I believe the correlation is due, almost entirely, to the yen carry trade. When it’s “risk-on” globally, investors are happy to borrow the cheap yen in order to buy higher yielding assets. In other words, they are comfortable shorting it.
Since gold is easily the safest asset in the world, interest in it obviously falls when riskier bets appear to make more sense.
So, for different reasons, both the yen and gold are sold at the same time.
When the economic/market backdrop turns risk-off, demand for (counterparty-free) gold obviously rises and the appetite for borrowed yen, or borrowed anything, obviously diminishes.
Of course…
The Action Is Always At The Margin… And The Margin Is Not Pretty
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/david-rosenberg-action-always-margin-and-margin-not-pretty
Thanks for that Mathew. I probably am to jaded and tend to overthink things.
I like this “Your not as successful as your intelligence,Your as successful as the group that you can draw intelligence from and use.” Cheers
If stocks are getting ready to pull back, and bonds are getting ready to bounce, as I think they are, then the yen will soon rise versus most currencies as carry trade participants (and those who are just short) buy yen to lock-in profits/reduce their exposure.
The yen is massively oversold versus the dollar and dollar bulls should note that it can bounce significantly before it starts to affect the longer term outlook for either currency.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p18919656080
I agree. Bonds are ready to give back some of the huge run-up they’ve had over the past few months, and the yen has found support, and should rebound. Both of these support the bullish gold argument. Mid-to-long term commodities look better than gold, but short-term gold should out-perform commodities.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TMF&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p35325303940&a=461799637
Yen weekly, various forms of support:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87146502292&a=443807618
GCC vs GLD, fork resistance and bearish indicators:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC%3AGLD&p=D&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17358627971&a=479694081
GCC vs GDXJ, fib fan and fib arc resistance, swing high, indicators rolling over:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC%3AGLD&p=D&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17358627971&a=479694081
Mr. Savage on bonds. So while he agrees, it’s with caution…
https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/12/chart-day-moment-truth-bonds.html
US dollar and S&P have started daily cycle declines:
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2016/12/24/the-122616-weekend-report-preview/
Merry Christmas and thanks!
How do I get to the second hour ??
Rick Rule and Eric Hadik know a bull market when they see one. Both gave a very good interview…
Gold is setting up for more than just a bounce…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p35463802603&a=495554869
USDJPY is getting ready to take a long break…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USDJPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75089003479&a=495584871
The same goes for T-bond yields…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TYX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88105853065&a=407316022
The same goes for stocks…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=W&yr=3&mn=1&dy=0&id=p28351005891
Swiss Mining Institute – YouTube Videos Channel
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjE_e6ZEvGffh5FWxG4P7zA/videos
Hey, Ex, I have now replaced all the CBG that I sold months ago.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CBG.V&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p76426726970&a=493422566
Nice set up. Yes, I’ve been watching them recently as a possible add, but probably have to much Precious Metals exposure now (16 Gold stocks, 10 Silver Stocks, 6 Prospect Generators, and 3 PGMs). I had asked you about $CBG a few weeks back and am happy to see the updated chart and that you are taking advantage of the pullback.
Cheers mate!
I’ve been adding to many of my existing core positions to increase my weighting in them and starting a number of new positions since late November. I’m just about out of dry powder for the PM stocks, as I’m quite busy with reviewing Base Metals, Uranium, and Lithium stocks as well.
I’m holding just a few funds back for if we get any further weakness in late Dec/early Jan in the metals and miners to buy one last tranche if it looks like we are playing out the large double bottom pattern in Gold from where we bottomed last year at this time of year. It that plays out then I’ll be fully allocated to this particular sector.
That’s quite a number and I assume it’s a significant percentage of your portfolio as well.
I also bought Brixton Metals last week even though I previously never thought I would. When it gapped down to .175 last week, I just had to buy.
It finished the week 60% above the opening low…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p05245208172&a=494850532
Yes, the Gold, Silver, and PGM miners are around 60% of my “trading account” at present and they have been much less the last 2-3 years around 15-50%. For clarity, I have a retirement account full of the general stock market Mutual Funds, Stocks, and Bonds but with only a very tiny exposure to resources companies and most of that is Oil & Nat Gas or downstream processors and manufacturers.
My trading account is where I go after aggressive gains and play with the higher risk higher volatility sectors. The extractive resources and energy companies are the wildest journeys, but they provide many more peaks and valleys that some of the flat blue chip companies. This is where my speculative focus is. Silver Stocks have always been my favorite (but I still expect Uranium stocks to blow a few minds when they finally get out of their ruts. I haven’t forgotten the last cycle.) 🙂
As for Brixton Metals (BBB) – Yeup – been adding to it quite a bit recently.
Here’s a nice right up their recent acquisition of a 3rd Past-Producing Silver mine.
_________________________________________________________________________
(BBB) (BXTMF) Brixton Metals acquires third past-producing mine
TRISH SAYWELL – DECEMBER 22, 2016
“Since Brixton Metals (TSXV: BBB) started looking about a year ago at the historic Silver – Cobalt camp near the northern Ontario town of Cobalt, the junior has picked up $three past-producing underground mines that it believes could churn out more #silver some day.”
“Its third acquisition — the Gowganda mine — was announced on Dec. 19….”
From that Northern Miner piece:
“Thompson adds that there’s only a small number of primary silver opportunities in Canada and says that’s one of the reasons why Brixton is so attractive to its shareholders, which include Rob McEwen (9%), U.S. Global and Hecla Mining, (each with 6%), Eric Sprott (5%) and retail 55%. Management owns about 12%.”
“We’re very excited — it’s brownfield exploration for the most part, and you know the old saying: ‘A good place to look for a mine is near a mine,’” says Thompson. “But we’ve got some work to do to get those resources defined.”
Thompson, one of the company’s co-founders, notes that generally the historic workings at all three mines were relatively shallow. Hudson Bay was mined down to 60 metres, Langis went down to about 200 metres, while Gowganda reached a depth of 260 metres.
“If you’re looking at the Abitibi Greenstone Belt, we know that the basement rocks can have mineralization down to a significant depth, so we see an opportunity for that potential with some of the deeper structures at our projects,” he explains. “We know we have some large-scale regional faults, and we think the splays off those faults could be conduits for the fluid flow both at shallow levels and at depth.”
oops “write up” not “right up”……. although once things get going again in Silver space I do expect their stock to go right up. 😉
“The company drilled 15 holes at Langis this summer, some of which returned very high grade, including 3.13 metres of 1,944.6 grams silver and 2 metres of 1,084 grams silver. One of the most intriguing holes, however, intersected 4.9 grams gold per tonne and 397 grams silver at a depth of around 156 metres.”
This was an interesting Merger this last week that created a fair bit of eyebrow raising in the mining community this week.
AuRico Metals snaps up prospect generator Kiska Metals for CAD$9.6 million
Andrew Topf | 4 days ago
http://www.mining.com/aurico-metals-snaps-prospect-generator-kiska-metals-cad9-6-million/
Tiny Australian junior (IBG.AX) (IRBGY) gets permit for Greenland’s first large new mine
Andrew Topf | 4 days ago #Zinc #Lead
http://www.mining.com/tiny-australian-junior-get-permit-greenlands-first-new-mine/
Speaking of Australian Miners I went on a rant earlier this week and thought I’d post it in case there are any other Australian Miners anyone else is eyeballing:
Yes, $TGZ Teranga is an interesting story that it seems a few on here (myself included) hold shares in. They are operating in #Africa, but still many of these #AussieGoldStocks just get very little fanfare (due to the #CanadianBias many resource investors have). We covered it pretty well already, but for anyone interested here is their Corporate Presentation:
What first animated me about Australian miners was a company I used to hold $MLX.AX Metals X when they made some nice Precious Metals acquisitions a few years back. Now they are separating their #Gold properties from their #BaseMetals operations and last I heard were doing a spinco.
Then #MichaelBelkin pointed out back in 2015 how many of the Australian Gold miners (like $NST.AX Norther Star Resources or $SBM.AX St Barbara Ltd) started moving before the rest of the herd due to the favorable currency conditions and how well Gold has performed versus the Australian Dollar. If you pull up a longer term gold chart of $NST.AX or $SBM.AX you’ll see what a rocking year they had in 2015 when many Gold miners were still nose-diving. That really got my attention, and made me reconsider the effects currency exchanges played in profitability.”
As for (BLK.AX) (BKHRF) Blackham Resources, it just seems like another unloved new Aussie producer, and I’ve been surprised at how low the shares have gone in the face of their recent success in going into production this year and with all cylinders firing. I couldn’t stand it any longer and started a position.
Then like any sane investor, I immediately had buyers remorse and initially doubted my sanity 😉
http://blackhamresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/BLK-Presentation-Nov-2016-AGM-Final.pdf
Another Aussie company I’ve recently started building a position in is $NVO Novo Resources. #JayTaylor first brought it to my attention, then #BobMoriarty, and eventually when they became a sponsor over at the #Korelin Economics Report and they had a few exclusive reviews of their #Development and near-term #Production story, then I said “Fine….I’ll add it.”
I’ve watched for it to pull back and…..it has. I decided to start building a position in it recently because of their projected lower cost ease of mining, (due to just removing the over-burden with heavy machinery down to the ore level, and then using #GravityRecovery to process the ore instead of harsh chemicals).
One other Australian Gold company & Specialty Metals company I own is (ALK.AX) (ALKEF) Alkane Resources. They are a great Jr Producer and are using the Gold revenues to fund the huge specialty metals #Zirconium project that also contains #hafnium, #niobium and #RareEarthElements. They may be one of the few #SpecialtyMetals projects with a pulse and a chance, because they funded the development with #GoldRevenues.
Other #AussieStocks that I’m reviewing but have not fully digested are $AMI.AX $ABU.AX $AQI.AX $AYC.AX $AZS.AX $CGN.AX $DCN.AX $DRM.AXDoray Minerals Limited $EXG.AX $HAV.AX $KDR.AX $MOY.AX $RED.AX $RSG.AX $WPG.AX . ~AUstralia
Wellgreen Platinum (TSX: WG) Provides Project Update; Metallurgical Test Initiated
“We are pleased to report that metallurgical testing on the primary geometallurgical domains has produced a final flowsheet capable of generating high quality bulk Ni-Cu-PGM concentrates, which was the primary objective of the program. A minor mechanical issue regarding persistence of froth was revealed during locked cycle testing. Testing has moved substantially toward resolution of this issue using conventional chemical technologies. It is expected that the final metallurgical results will be reportable towards the latter end of first quarter 2017. Testing to demonstrate the viability of a process to produce separate copper and copper/nickel concentrates has also been successful.”
Gold Downtrend Tactics: Keep Stop-losses Tight
Morris Hubbartt – posted Dec 23, 2016
Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
(click on the Blue Links for the Technical Analysis Videos)
Gold 2016 A Year in Review
Gary Wagner – December 23, 2016 – VIDEO
Gold Miners Poised For End Of Year Rally
by @Goldfinger on December 27, 2016
https://www.ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-miners-poised-for-end-of-year-rally
Thanks for the weekend show as always fella’s.
Much appreciated
Cheers
.