Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Mon 9 Jan, 2017

Where is this run in gold and gold stocks going to top out?

Doc is with us today and we are looking at the moves in gold. Gold is experiencing a nice move up today of slightly over $10 but how much longer can we expect this to go? We are sticking with our slow recovery narrative which will produce longer term gains but it will take time.

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Comments:
  1. On January 9, 2017 at 11:22 am,
    CFS says:

    Platinum is up $15 in London today.

  2. On January 9, 2017 at 11:26 am,
    CFS says:
  3. On January 9, 2017 at 11:33 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Doc:
    It’s good to hear that you don’t plan on trimming any of your positions if the gold market breaks $1200 and then drifts back down some. I’m curious, how far down would you expect at this time that the metal could hit?

    • On January 9, 2017 at 11:38 am,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Silver, we can still drift higher for a few days but I don’t believe it’ll be a strong move—as mentioned, we may challenge the low 1200s. Then I believe the path of least resistance is down and I don’t believe we’ll take out the recent low of about 1125. At that time I hope I’ll be able to tell how strong the next move up is. 1125 may be a low we don’t see again.

      • On January 9, 2017 at 11:42 am,
        Silverdollar says:

        Thank you. Seasonality certainly agrees with your short-term analysis into February. I plan on plan on holding through most of next month, but may change depending on what transpires. Good luck to you.

        • On January 9, 2017 at 3:01 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          Silver, just a thought; March is usually a decent month for the metals.

    • On January 10, 2017 at 12:27 am,
      Excelsior says:

      $BPGDM is the [Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index], and it is a breadth indicator that provides a fairly good signal on when the miners are overbought or over sold.

      $BPGDM hit 100 last summer which was way overbought, and those that did not trim, watched their gains evaporate away as most companies fell back down for the balance of the year.

      When $BPGDM hit a double bottom low again this last Nov/Dec, then that gave me the confidence to get back in the water and re-position in miners much heavier in Dec through the post holiday tax-loss selling season. Things don’t stay that oversold for long.

      We mentioned on here a few times that it was very similar to January of 2016, or the Nov/Dec oversold situation in late 2014, right before that Q1 rally. (check those time periods out on this chart)

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20600169876

      The RSI is starting to get into “Overbought” conditions again (above the chart), so I could see it temporarily topping soon, taking a breather to cool off the indicators, and then taking another lunge higher later in Q1 2017.

      • On January 10, 2017 at 12:30 am,
        Excelsior says:

        The miners may have another week or two to run first though, so squeeze out those gains first…. then lighten the load if things get too top-heavy later in the month.

        • On January 10, 2017 at 4:09 am,
          wolfster says:

          Think that comment could go for the entire u.s. market.quite possible that the top has hit or will hit just before inauguration and then a months long correction takes hold….

          • On January 10, 2017 at 10:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Good point about the inauguration. I was just looking at the charts but wasn’t even thinking about the changing of the guard for the Commander in Chief as a potential catalyst.

  4. On January 9, 2017 at 11:38 am,
    CFS says:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/09/conway-trump-russia-probe-congress-hacking-obama/96338952/

    Trump may lift sanctions on Russia.

    (Neglecting that Russia has just doubled up on its sales of yellowcake to Iran = 20 nukes equivalent so far!
    ut what the heck, once there nuclear reactors are going full strength they will have plenty of Plutonium and the capability of making dirty bombs)

    • On January 9, 2017 at 12:04 pm,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      CFS:

      For a little balance, why don’t you write about how many nuclear bombs Israel has? Why would we spend even a minute worrying about Iran when all 17 US intelligence agencies agree they do not have a nuclear weapons program?

      You keep trying to convince the board that you have some sort of coin with only one side. Israel remains the only power in the Middle East with WMD and nuclear weapons and has threatened to use them. There are two sides to the issue and by pretending there is only one, you insult the intelligence of everyone here.

      • On January 9, 2017 at 12:09 pm,
        CFS says:

        Mr. Moriarty, please do not assume I am as ignorant of Israel as you.
        Last information I recall on Israel’s nuclear capability (from S. African sources and a bit out of date) was that Israel had triple digit numbers of nuclear bombs.

        • On January 9, 2017 at 12:14 pm,
          CFS says:

          From my memory, the last confirmed number was 33 nukes in Israel. The current regime did confirm its “no first strike” policy, more recently than all your claimed “threats”.
          Iran, on the other hand, repeatly and currently, threatens death to America; Death to Israel.

          • On January 9, 2017 at 12:22 pm,
            Robert Moriarty says:

            CFS:

            Did you miss all the parades in Israel with the mob screaming “Death to the Arabs?”

            And by the way, Obama, the French President and most of the world agree that the administration in Israel lies about almost everything.

            I’ll give you a lot of credit for honesty. BM refused to admit Israel had nuclear weapons even after proof that they had tested one off South Africa in the 1970s and tried to sell them to SA.

            But the number is a lot higher than you admit. This from Wikipedia, “Although no official statistics exist, estimates of Israeli nuclear weapons range from 75 to as many as 400.[3][4][5][6] ”

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

          • On January 9, 2017 at 12:57 pm,
            Gator says:

            CFS..Bob M. has made his hatred for Israel quite clear from way back. He either has his head in the sand or is just plain ignorant of the facts. Either way you won’t get anywhere trying to reason with him when it comes to Israel.

          • On January 9, 2017 at 1:12 pm,
            CFS says:

            I have more faith in the mob not being in control in Israel; in Iran as the US Embassy sacking demonstrated, that is not so true.

          • On January 9, 2017 at 1:18 pm,
            CFS says:

            I always assume truth is in limited quantity in all statements issued by all governments.
            (Even when it comes to my own government, and especially if the statement comes out of the Whitehouse.)

        • On January 9, 2017 at 1:02 pm,
          Robert Moriarty says:

          CFS:

          Telling the truth about Israel is hardly the same as being ignorant. But speaking of ignorance, I probably know 50 times as much as you about war. If Israel continues on the path they are on and have been on for 70 years they will either commit national suicide or start WW III.

          They will lose as will the US.

          • On January 9, 2017 at 1:08 pm,
            CFS says:

            One area I will agree about your superior knowledge is the historical violation of airspace around the Eiffel tower, Paris.

          • On January 9, 2017 at 1:08 pm,
            Robert Moriarty says:

            Gator and CFS:

            Perhaps you should do something about your ignorance. Here is an article that discusses The Zionist plan for the Middle East.

            The plan operates on two essential premises. To survive, Israel must 1) become an imperial regional power, and 2) must effect the division of the Whole area into small states by the dissolution of all existing Arab states. Small here will depend on the ethnic or sectarian composition of each state. Consequently, the Zionist hope is that sectarian-based states become Israel’s satellites and, ironically, its source of moral legitimation.

            http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/01/09/the-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east/

            If there are flaws to the article, why don’t you discuss them instead of the constant attacks on everyone who doesn’t buy into the Zionist view of the world?

          • On January 9, 2017 at 1:15 pm,
            CFS says:

            I registered, but was lucky not to have to serve in Vietnam. So, I have not had to face atrocities close up.

          • On January 9, 2017 at 1:17 pm,
            b says:

            I have read “death to….” is an expression.
            Bang my thumb with a hammer “death to hammers”

            I dont see BM as hating Israel, the zionists might be another matter.
            Personally, I think all business with Israel should be stopped, unfortunately, they kinda rule us.

            I have been amazed for years that people almost worship the zionists of Israel.
            Especially christians, ya would think they would be insulted when their writing says jesus is boiled for all eternity in human excrement, he is idol worship and Mary was a whore.
            Yet they unquestionably support them.
            Talk about brainwash.

            I agree with BM 100%
            So do alot of Jews living in Israel actually.

          • On January 9, 2017 at 1:23 pm,
            Robert Moriarty says:

            CFS:

            I know an atrocity when I see one. A soldier of anyone’s army shooting a defenseless wounded prisoner in the head is a war crime. When 67% of the citizens of that country believes it’s ok to do, that makes them all war criminals. Notice none of what I said had even a smidgen to do with religion.

            You don’t need religion to be a war criminal. I used to admire Kerry because in 1972 he knew what war crimes were and has forgotten.

          • On January 9, 2017 at 1:44 pm,
            GH says:

            Is Christianity a religion of peace?

            If so, why does an ostensibly Christian nation like the US the greatest purveyor of violence in the world?

          • On January 9, 2017 at 1:56 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Kerry sold out to big money……marrying in big money sure changes things.

          • On January 10, 2017 at 12:28 am,
            Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

            Absolutely Jerry – honey traps and money traps…

      • On January 9, 2017 at 12:27 pm,
        Ugly but proud says:

        Bravo Robert.M . Ur the only one with some horse sense. Sincerely. I shall purchase your book soon:

      • On January 9, 2017 at 12:39 pm,
        Marty says:

        Bob Moriarty, concerning your321 post this am concerning MXGOLD, HAULING FROM MINES only 180 miles round trip to mill could considerably impact cost per ton hauled. Could you comment on long distance hauling. I’m sure grade/ton is the prominent issue

        • On January 9, 2017 at 12:47 pm,
          Robert Moriarty says:

          As to MX Gold. It obviously is an issue but the two bulk samples showed over half a ounce and one with 26 g/t. I think that would work but we need a PEA to know. I can say it’s obvious they are trying to line up feed. They have a $80 million dollar mill that they paid $5.7 million for. They want the mill working and it isn’t going to be for moly for a long time.

          • On January 9, 2017 at 12:53 pm,
            Marty says:

            Thanks Bob M

  5. On January 9, 2017 at 11:39 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    Doc, are you taking Clemson and 7 points? Sounds good to me.

    • On January 9, 2017 at 12:57 pm,
      Cory says:

      Hey Bonzo I am really looking forward to the game. As much I would like to see Clemson not only cover but also win, I think Bama is too big and fast. That 7 point line is tough. I would lean towards Bama minus 7 but I’m just hoping it is close. A Rose Bowl esque game would be amazing!

      Sounds like you are leaning toward Clemson 🙂

      • On January 9, 2017 at 3:20 pm,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        I would lean toward Clemson if I could get 7 points, but I don’t have a bookie. Hope it’s as good as the Rose Bowl.

  6. On January 9, 2017 at 12:32 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    FBI Quietly Releases Another 300 Hillary Email Investigation Documents

    While much of America was watching the NFL playoffs or the Golden Globe Awards, the FBI quietly released another several hundred pages of documents related to its investigation of Hillary Clinton.

    http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/01/09/fbi-releases-300-hillary-clinton-email-investigation-documents-during-nfl-golden-globes

  7. On January 9, 2017 at 2:39 pm,
    GH says:

    Has the S&P500 topped in terms of gold? Looks like it to me. The recent top would form a double top. It just formed a swing high on the monthly chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p22297092839&a=498431602

  8. On January 9, 2017 at 3:29 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I am fed up to the top of my eyeballs with movie stars who have a huge following giving their political opinions, if they were worth their weight in salt they would be graceful and keep their worthless opinions to themselves.

    I agree with Trump, Meryl Streep is overrated! DT

    • On January 9, 2017 at 6:14 pm,
      Bonzo Barzini says:

      Never liked Merly Streep Gummer.

    • On January 10, 2017 at 4:01 am,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      DT +1

      If anyone has ever watched a movie in production, they will do the same scene 10-50 times in a row. After a few iterations it becomes scary because you begin to realize the actors have an incredible ability to fake feelings.

      All actors share one ability and that is to mimic real feelings. That is hardly a qualification as to dealing with the real world. Actors talking about how countries should be run is like listening to the pope talk about sex. If you no playa the game, don’t makea the rules.

  9. On January 9, 2017 at 4:22 pm,
    Tony says:

    +1
    Just a bunch a dicks

    • On January 10, 2017 at 12:32 am,
      Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

      Did you see Meryl’s fake tears? Donald is right, if not a one-time reasonable actor she’s a deplorable one now. Same goes for Clooney and de Niro and a raft more.

      • On January 10, 2017 at 7:20 am,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        Robert Duvall is a better than Streep-Gummer, Clooney, de Niro, et al, and he’s a conservative, like Kelsey Grammer and Jon Voight.