Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Fri 13 Jan, 2017

The peak in the bond market and a higher oil price

Today with Doc we turn away from the precious metals (we save that conversation for the weekend show) and focus on treasuries and oil. The main topics discussed include the overall top of treasury bonds and if oil will remain in a higher trading range.

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Featuring:
Richard PostmaCory Fleck
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Comments:
  1. On January 13, 2017 at 10:02 am,
    CFS says:
  2. On January 13, 2017 at 11:28 am,
    Pete says:

    I have gotten married to IVN.TO,can´t sell,i´m frozen 🙂
    Maybe it´s different this time and there will be no pullback 😉

    • On January 13, 2017 at 11:40 am,
      Silverdollar says:

      Call it a core position and then don’t worry about it. It has a good future in my opinion. FWTW

      • On January 13, 2017 at 11:58 am,
        Pete says:

        Yes,it´s one of my core miners/long term holdings.
        Thanks

    • On January 13, 2017 at 11:56 am,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Pete, I own IVN and I personally am going to let it run—in fact the technicals are still looking good. I’m in it for the long run. It’s going to pullback eventually for a number of technical reasons but I don’t care since I’ll probably add at that point in time.

      • On January 13, 2017 at 12:14 pm,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        I am married to FNV, RGLD, SLW, SAND, NEM, SSRI, PAAS, AG, HL, AXU, EXK,GG, NGD, NCMGY, DRGDF, OCANF, EGO, PVG, PPP, MUX, CEF, PSLV, TORXF, OLVRF, etc. I did sell 2/3 of my TAHO this week and have some cash to buy something better.

        • On January 13, 2017 at 12:21 pm,
          Pete says:

          Bonzo Barzini,

          Careful,too many marriages can get you in trouble 🙂

        • On January 13, 2017 at 2:04 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          BB, that’s good advice, I am always telling my sons not to bother with women, there are always other ways to get hooked up without tying the marriage knot. LOL!

      • On January 13, 2017 at 1:58 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        DOC, If you like trading as I do, you can sell your position after a run up and buy more shares at a lower price, accumulating is a real challenge but in this market it’s not that hard to do. A stock like IVN has a lot of liquidity and it is priced just right for trading. That’s why I like NDM, but working with more than one stock requires a lot more concentration however; it can be fun if you keep some cash on the side if it goes against you. DT

        • On January 13, 2017 at 3:21 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Great points DT. Trading isn’t for everyone, but that very strategy of selling the rips and buying the dips has worked out very well for me. It works best in a bear market though, because the danger of stocks running away from investors is greater in a bull market. Still if someone is a technically savvy as Doc, I’m sure it would net him extra coins in his pocket from time to time.

    • On January 13, 2017 at 8:01 pm,
      bytal says:

      Up 330% since I bought. Almost feel like covering my position was a mistake at 120% gain.

  3. On January 13, 2017 at 12:04 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Matthew/Excelsior: Your Americas Silver is sure running today……I clock it over the 200 sma today. Thanks for bringing it to the attention of the board!

  4. On January 13, 2017 at 12:15 pm,
    Pete says:

    Thank you, Richard/Doc,
    I feel the same way about Ivanhoe and a few other pm miners (and uranium stocks)

    Thank you for your technical analysis and comments on the KER,very much appreciated 🙂

  5. On January 13, 2017 at 12:23 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Off topic. In these divisive times here’s some thoughts for all people, particularly
    AMERICANS: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-life-lessons-we-learn-too-late-2017-01-13

  6. On January 13, 2017 at 12:47 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    Cameco is having a heck of a run. I wonder how long it will be before there is a pull-back? It’s gone vertical!!!

    • On January 13, 2017 at 3:42 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The whole Uranium sector has gone vertical since December, and really picked up steam in January. See the charts below, as many companies are up 2 x 3 times what Cameco is.

  7. On January 13, 2017 at 1:12 pm,
    Pete says:

    Cameco,

    On September 2, 2016 at 11:35 pm,
    Pete says:
    Excelsior,
    Reply to your comment Sep 1 market wrap,
    You are right of course, about torque in the smaller companies,i own a few of those too.
    But,i was thinking that the first move could come from the bigger companies.
    Rick Rule thinks that Cameco could move like a penny stock,when uranium takes off.(I think he is right about Cameco,based on everything i know.(i dont know much)
    Im sure you heard him speak of the bullwhip metaphor,were the bigger companies move first.
    In this video at 07.00 he speaks of Cameco.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTgMculJXNM

    • On January 13, 2017 at 3:40 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Pete. Cameco has done OK, but like I said, the smaller companies trounced the gains of the larger ones (just like with Gold & Silver & Base Metals)

      1 Month Bar Chart for some key #Uranium #Producers and #Developers

      $CCJ $ARVCF $PALAF $UUUU $URG $DNN $UEC $URRE $GXU $ARY

      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?CCJ,ARVCF,PALAF,UUUU,URG,DNN,UEC,URRE,GXU.V,ARY.V&p=1&O=111000

      • On January 13, 2017 at 3:41 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        1 Month Bar Chart for some key Uranium Explorers

        $UEX $FCU $NXE $CVV $AL $PLU $AZZ $SYH $UVN $BKY.L

        http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?UEX.TO,FCU.TO,NXE.TO,CVV.V,AL.V,PLU.V,AZZ.TO,SYH.V,UVN.V,BKY.L&p=1&O=111000

        • On January 13, 2017 at 10:49 pm,
          brian says:

          Hey EX !
          I actually decided to invest (OK … date, not marry) some Alt-Energy stocks. My first is US Geothermal (HTM). It has done quite nicely this year, but not like the uranium stocks.
          Brian

          • On January 14, 2017 at 8:12 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Nice to hear from you Brian. Interesting on US Geothermal. Yes, it’s one I’ve been watching for a while. As for investing in the Energy stocks, I’ve had so much focus over in Uranium and Lithium, that for Alt-Energy I only have a position in Alterra Power and Brookfield Renewable Partners.

            I’ve considered getting into Algonquin Power, TerraForm Global and TerraForm Power, Daqo New Energy Corp, Nordex SE, Pattern Energy Group, Polaris Infrastructure, Transalta Renewables and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co.

  8. On January 13, 2017 at 1:19 pm,
    CFS says:

    The nice thing about Cameco is the volume, even though it is getting overbought.

    • On January 13, 2017 at 1:34 pm,
      Pete says:

      Yes, institutional Money?

  9. On January 13, 2017 at 1:23 pm,
    CFS says:

    I have been shifting a part of my portfolio into uranium stocks.
    Cameco, Nexgen, Goviex, Western Uranium, Energy Metals.
    Also URA, UUUU.

    • On January 13, 2017 at 1:43 pm,
      Pete says:

      I own Energy fuels,Cameco,Nexgen,Kivalliq,Skyharbour Uex and Goviex

      • On January 13, 2017 at 3:52 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        In December when the move in Uranium started I owned Energy Fuels, Nexgen, Denison, Ur-Energy, Uranium Resources, Uranium Energy Corp (UEC), UEX Corp, ALX Uranium, and I’ve day traded Paladin a few times.

        Last week I took my profits in ALX Uranium and rotated them into Centrus.

        This week on Tues/Wed I unloaded my Uranium Resources for large gain, after some lengthy discussions with other investors on ceo, and because I didn’t like that they had gone into Lithium at this late stage of the cycle. They seem to have an identity crisis.

        I rotated the Tuesday URRE profits into Lightbridge and sold it for a nice score on Wednesday, and then bought the Lightbridge position back at the end of day. LTBR have a unique nuclear fuel rod they are bringing to market and are partnered with Areva.

        I kept the remaining Wednesday URRE profits and profits from the other Uranium stocks I trimmed on Thursday and today for if we get a pull back in the near future to redeploy. Things are just looking a bit too frothy in the Uranium space (even for me 🙂 )

        Fun times!!

        • On January 13, 2017 at 10:31 pm,
          Pete says:

          Excelsior,
          You are a hard worker,do you ever sleep?
          Trimming/taking profits is part of the game,when a chart goes vertical i trimm some.
          I have some stocks that i practice trading on and others that i accumulate(i also hold Anfield,btw)

          Fun times, Absolutely(Sometimes i have to slap myself so i don´t have too much fun 🙂

          Thanks

          • On January 13, 2017 at 10:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Ha ha! I love it Pete. Yep, we can start calling “Vertical Trimming”. I’ve been calling it Trimming the Profit Tree (but am a confessed early trimmer at times). 😮

            Yes sir – work hard, play harder….. I do sleep about 4 hrs a night but never with a 1-2 hr booster at a different part of the day, but they’re never at the same times. Keeps it fresh.

            Cheers!

          • On January 13, 2017 at 10:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Sorry that wording went off into never-never land. I meant with a 1-2 hr booster that moves around to different times in the day = never at the same time.

            Regardless, its confusing, and don’t really understand it myself (ha!)

          • On January 14, 2017 at 1:53 am,
            Pete says:

            🙂

        • On January 14, 2017 at 8:45 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I forgot to mention that I also waded into Bannerman Resources (BMN.AX) (BNNLF) this week as well. In all the re-positioning this week, I forgot I had even started up that position, but it is still a small weighting at this point. Their development stage Etango project has had my attention for a while, and figured I’d throw a little funny money at the Aussie Uranium miners to diversify.

  10. On January 13, 2017 at 1:26 pm,
    CFS says:
  11. On January 13, 2017 at 1:29 pm,
    CFS says:
  12. On January 13, 2017 at 1:41 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    FUNNY………..1198…………

    • On January 13, 2017 at 1:46 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      beats……..1049….

      • On January 13, 2017 at 3:53 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        True.

  13. On January 13, 2017 at 2:15 pm,
    CFS says:
    • On January 13, 2017 at 3:16 pm,
      james says:

      Diss is GLOBAL ENSLAVEMENT ! CFS ! You all need luck diss !

  14. On January 13, 2017 at 3:02 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Scorpio Gold is on the move…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SGN.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=13&id=p08571225968&a=478858973

    (My portfolio of juniors finished the day up 6% while GDXJ only delivered .25%)

    • On January 13, 2017 at 3:54 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’ve been enjoying the attention coming back to Scorpio Gold as of late.

      It’s one of my selections for the 2017 stock picking contest, so I want to see it get on it’s horse and ride……

      • On January 13, 2017 at 5:10 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Scorpio has a real shot at performing the way Impact Silver did last year. Yes, I am biased but that bias came before I acquired shares.

        The current move has already shown more strength the one that began at the bear market lows last year.

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SGN.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=1&dy=0&id=p75515818224&a=456084840

        • On January 13, 2017 at 5:53 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Breaking free of fork resistance….. very nice…..

        • On January 14, 2017 at 9:07 am,
          Dan, calgary says:

          It will be my largest holding by next week. I focused more on SGN and cut way back on USA. I am sure both are going to do well though. Uranium has been great but may need the breather Ex is talking about before being a real force. All IMHO.

          • On January 14, 2017 at 9:18 am,
            Matthew says:

            I think SGN will outperform USA but am happy to hold a lot of USA anyway. I also think you and Ex are right about uranium stocks taking a breather soon.

    • On January 13, 2017 at 8:09 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Matthew, as far as SGN is concerned all I can say is go baby go! DT

  15. On January 13, 2017 at 3:07 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Looking at “volume by price” we can see that the current level represents a bull-bear battleground…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p77548881397

  16. On January 13, 2017 at 3:20 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    Just wondering if some of these uranium miners need to come off over-bought and back down to their 200 dmas or thereabouts.

    • On January 13, 2017 at 4:03 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Makes sense to me. That is what I was getting at up above by them looking a bit frothy, and wiy I was pulling partial profits all week in my Uranium positions. I bought in big in the Uranium Miners all last year, but really went in big in Nov/Dec.

      This has been an absolutely fantastic start to 2017 in the Uranium space, but everyone and their grandmother is now talking about Uranium on all the chat boards, articles, and even major new stories. I’m very happy to see the interest coming back to the sector, but it reminds me of other sectors that got very over-heated, only to pull back crushing the new enthusiasm and demonstrates the madness of crowds……

      The time to be buying Uranium stocks was November & December, but like normal, most people just piled in this week near a short-term peak in U miners. I love it…. It never gets old…..so I sold some of my shares to them 😉

      If the share prices pull back over the next week or two, and the blood panics and starts selling (when they realize the spot price is still down in the $20’s and still not economical for any company), then I’ll buy their shares back from them on sale.

      • On January 13, 2017 at 4:05 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        blood = “new blood” (I meant all the newbies, but it sounded kind of scary) Ha!

  17. On January 13, 2017 at 4:23 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    As a follow up. I mentioned all week long, starting on Monday, that Sabina Gold & Silver were due for news out any day now. Next I posted Goldfinger’s charts, with the rounded bottom, and comments from about 6-7 other people throughout the week. The info about the permit was posted here on the KER before it was even officially released to the market in a press release.

    Hopefully a few investors here on the KER were able to cash in on the Sabina move this week.

    (SBB) closed up 10.43% today alone.

    __________________________________

    Here’s a weekly chart showing it’s up 28%. Not too shabby….

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SBB.TO&n=6&O=011000

  18. On January 13, 2017 at 4:59 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The silver ETF, SLV, managed to close the week above the 50 day MA for the first time in two months but silver itself, did not…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=8&id=p95914560514&a=451786106

  19. On January 13, 2017 at 5:28 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold closed above the 50 day MA for the third day straight but now needs to get through some fork resistance…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p36342424654&a=484925243

  20. On January 13, 2017 at 5:45 pm,
    Matthew says:
  21. On January 13, 2017 at 5:48 pm,
    Matthew says:
  22. On January 13, 2017 at 8:27 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    According to legend, kissing The Blarney Stone endows the kisser with the gift of the gab, I always thought that Irish was a stone kisser, except when he goes on a pub crawl and then he is a stoned stone kisser. LOL! DT

  23. On January 14, 2017 at 2:14 am,
    Bob UK says:

    Excelsior – let us know when you think it is a good time to buy back in please – the uranium sector looks good for the long haul now but, in theory, there should be some pull-back soon as, as you say, it looks a tad frothy.

    • On January 14, 2017 at 8:40 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Sure Bob UK – I enjoy sharing ideas with investors here, but also nobody has a crystal ball. My comments were only to caution people getting very excited that we may cool off for a few days or weeks as things just climbed pretty quick. That’s how things go in the Uranium space though, and for all we know, maybe they’ll all double again in a the next month or two. I wouldn’t want investors to miss out on having a position and gains in the sector because of something I said. My point was only for investors that already had positions not to go overboard with “irrational exuberance” 🙂

      Uranium stocks are getting institutional money flows in a bigger way, and this could just keep pushing things higher for some time. There may be institutional buyers that pull up a 5 year chart, and have no problem at all buying up large blocks even after this recent run up, because longer term these stocks are still down 80-90%.

      On the short-term, It just looks like things are getting a bit ahead of themselves, considering some of the stocks just shot up 20-100% in just a month’s time.

      What I can say is that I’ll be buying back positions I just trimmed this week, when I see these stocks pullback by 10-20%. However, I still have a lager exposure to most in the Uranium sector with 9 stocks at present, and a 10th if you count swing trading Paladin every so often. When the recent spike hit, I decided to take some of that off the table and reduced down my position sizing a bit (with plans to buy those back if they cool off a bit).

      If the stocks just keep charging though, the positions I still have in place will do just fine, so that’s a much different situation to be in that not having any exposure at all.

      My philosophy is to at least get into position with companies I like in any sector, if they seem like good value, and if the stock falls by 20% or even by half, then I’ll average down in a bigger way and drop the cost basis down to a level that is much better value than when I first initiated a position, and considered it good value. If it spikes by 20-50% suddenly, then I lighten the load a bit, wait for a 10-20% pullback, and buy it back for the next upleg.

      The entire Uranium sector has been so beat up, that even buying now at these recently escalated prices will be worth it in the longer term and will be seen as great pricing in 1-3 years. My comments were more short-term in outlook, but if I didn’t have any position at all, that I’d be looking to buy on any dips.

      * What if things get wild and these stocks go up 200-500% like Gold/Silver stocks did in 2016? Debating pennies and missing dollars would be a shame, and when a sector gets on the move, many investors feel they have missed the ride and wait on the sidelines, but then watch the stocks just keep trucking higher and higher.

      Remember investors last year that were sad in Feb & March that they had “missed the move” in PM stocks, and then in April-August these stocks just kept charging and defying gravity? They never really pulled back in a meaningful way until the Autumn.

      If that same initial euphoria phase happens in Uranium miners, then having reduced position sizes will be a slight bummer, but having some core positions in place allows one to at least participate. If one has no position in place, then it’s a sad miss.

      You gotta be in it to win it.

      • On January 14, 2017 at 10:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Here’s another perspective from that some offered similar advice to a fellow Uranium investor:

        @SFtrader – “KevinS You can always buy a very small starter position here, so that if #uranium keeps running you wont feel like you’re “missing the move”. This helps in 2 ways: First, it will help prevent you from getting the “I-can’t-help-its” and going “all in” on a vertical chart rather than waiting for a more prudent entry point. Second, it will give you a frame of reference on the stock and help you identify better levels to average into a long term position. Just my two cents from an execution stand point… hope that helps.”

        from #UUUU, 13 Jan 2017