February is going to be very different this year for gold and silver
Today Doc and I dive into the gold and silver charts to project what we think will happen next month. The recent weakness could be projecting a slow month ahead with far less volatility than seen in February 2016. Doc continues to use silver as a barometer for gold so pay close attention to his targets.
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Hi!
Im very interested in this mining junior, GPY
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GPY-w-BO-ch.png
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/gpy-2.png
I really want to purchase this one, any clue how far down it could go for a buying opportunity? Maybe a backtest to 1 cad is enough?
Hi Blue, I just released an interview with them. Please check that out and email me with any further questions.
The drop in Gold Platinum and Palladium and Silver is easily explained from Fundamentals:
Buying recently has been coming from Asia, NOT the U.S..
China is closed for New Year celebrations…….Hence no buying.
India has stopped buying gold, but is still buying silver, but overall demand is still down.
Add to that the triple witching Friday coming up, and you have the behavior we have witnessed.
(I was caught and surprised, because I was not monitoring Chinese markets actively this week!
gold purchasing down in India?
People around here were so sure the amount would increase.
Nobody knows anything.
The government limits gold holding and confiscates too much jewelry…..policy just started.
Limit is only a few ozs, depending on sex and marital status.
yupper cfs, kinda reminds a person of confiscation.
As India is a trial run, we might expect the same thing elsewhere.
They know what they can get away with from their Greek and Cypris antics, now they figure more out in India.
Which Americans would give a hoot should gold be limited to collector pieces etc?
Nobody, because nobody owns any.
Doc, do you still think silver will drop to $16.00 or there about in the near future? Is the VIX or UVXY still poised to go up soon or is it doomed to continue down for the near term?
The odds are very good we get close to $16.00
Hi Doc, do you still think NAT will go down to 8? It cut it’s dividend from .25 to .20
BB, not only will NAT hit 8 but it could move over time down to 6. The reason I say this is from a fundamental basis as well as a technical basis. The fact that the market yawned at a potential 10% dividend going forward is one thing but the other is that 2017 is potentially a rough year for the oil tanking business. One of the main reasons (among others which I won’t get into) is the large number of tankers coming on board in the near future along with the absence of scrapping of older ones.
Thanks Doc, at 6 the yield will be 13%, unless they cut it again.
2018 should see a better year for the oil tankers—I’m a buyer around 6
Doc and Cory – as usual, excellent commentary. Your explanations are clear and are contributing to my improving grasp of technical analysis. Well done, Gentlemen.
Doc: ”
Get right; sit tight”
Silver; right on—plenty of time to purchase some more PM stocks in February and add to positions.
Yep, I’m going to tell my lady I misunderstood, and that instead of buying her a Silver necklace for Valentines Day, that instead I bought her shares in Silver mining companies.
I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes when you tell her…I tried that last year and she is just now starting to talk to me…or…was it better the other way…
Gator – funny and good question there.
On second thought, I better wait for the share prices to dip….. to buy Silver stocks and roll those profits into a nice gift on Valentines for her. Maybe a nice trip…..
Cheers
Currecide: The Globalists’ Planned Annihilation of Your Savings and Freedom
January 25, 2017
Stewart Dougherty is back with another guest post. I believe this is his best work to date. I wanted to share some his thoughts from out email exchanges, which are raw, unedited and quite insightful:
I totally agree with what you wrote me previously about gold going ballistic this year. It’s probably better set-up right now than at any other time in history, for a large number of reasons. I hope it can finally overwhelm, once and for all the schemers who work to keep it down.
I continue to think that cash elimination is the biggest story out there. It is a fraud of epic proportions, and its implications are dark and deeply disturbing. I realize that I keep coming back to this theme, but it’s because it registers with me as being so incredibly important. Sometimes, you have to say something five times before people say, “Wow. This is important. I better do something about it.” If people decide to “do something about it,” they are going to find that their options are limited. Gold being one of the few of them. Gold demand would go nuts if only the people could finally understand why they need to buy it right now. I feel a bit like Don Quixote, but I also think that the dam of realization is coming very close to breaking, and that there could be an outright flood of new, popular awareness and action.
No doubt, MTF. Something very sinister and long planned is going on.
A Conversation with Jayant Bhandari – Commentary on India’s Currency Ban
by @Leni on January 26, 2017
https://www.ceo.ca/@leni/a-conversation-with-jayant-bhandari-commentary-on-indias-currency-ban
Spot TCs for China Zinc smelters dip to $20-$30/mt in Jan on tight concentrate supply
Singapore (Platts)–25 Jan 2017
International Lead and Zinc Study Group
(This site has multiple articles archived on the Macro picture for the base metals)
http://www.ilzsg.org/generic/pages/list.aspx?table=document&ff_aa_document_type=P&from=3
Doc:
So far the Xau is up 30% for the year since the low in Nov and the Hui up 33%. That’s actually better than last year. The fact so many people are luke warm on the metals means it going both higher and faster than what the average person sees coming.
The mob is always wrong.
Yup, Bob; we’ll see down pressure the bullion in February but I’ll be purchasing more. We are on the cusp of a bull market for the bullion and shares like we’ll never see again.
Doc:
Indeed.
I’m very bullish precious metals stocks, announced my purchase of JNUG here in late Dec. But I sold about 2/3 Monday and the rest today. Now watching and waiting to get back in.
Here’s my winner for today:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BEX.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=13&id=p86467317591&a=497509927
The year is off to a good start. My portfolio has already exceeded its 2016 high by as much as 18%.
Very nice. If I were in quality individual stocks I would be much more willing to weather the waves. But riding the downside of a daily cycle (which may be what we’re in) is no fun in JNUG. My plan is eventually to switch into individual stocks, ride the larger waves, and not sweat the volatility.
Interesting about JNUG. Last year it would have outperformed just about anything, with a >16x rise. But my observation is that these 3x funds only perform that way in a very strongly rising market. If a market gives a more gradual rise, with more pronounced ups and downs, the gains can largely be lost on the downside.
I hope we have another meteoric rise in the near future, but since I’m not sure I’m trying to lock in at least partial profits at what look like potential tops, with a clear re-entry price that makes sure I don’t get left in the dust.
Wow, I didn’t know that JNUG did so well last year – but it makes sense. You’re wise to play it carefully.
BEX is up again and the volume is very good…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BEX.V&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p62976133046
Crazy day today. I must have done 26 trades today. A lot of volatility in the after market after earnings reports. I bought and sold Qcom several times in the after mkt as sold my big At&t position twice and bought back once at a lower price and will buy back Thursday.
Bought the absolute bottom in Qcom at 54.50 in the after market for my last purchase. It closed at 56.90.
Doc by reasoning that we are on the cusp of a major bull market in pms, what chances do you give of silver and gold taking out their highs of 2016?
About 20% and it would have to be in the last quarter of 2017
Paul W, we talked in tuesdays market wrap how occasionally both gold and the US $ move in sync. Now, as if almost on cue, gold went from around $1207 down to its close of just over $1200. Whilst the dollar peaked above 100.4 and closed at just over 99.8. Both markets went down for no apparent reason. Volatility and uncertainty back en vogue???
They need, I think, 100,000 signatures by Feb 23.
A windmill well worth tilting at! Signed.
MIF January 2017: Jordan Roy-Byrne – “Building Towards 2018 Breakout”
Jan 23, 2017 –
This is a VIDEO & Slide presentation from Jordan showing the Big Picture view of Gold, the US Dollar, Gold against other Currencies, Gold against Bonds, and most importantly the end of the presentation is really well done with the different Gold Mining Stock analog charts, and how the Gold Mining stocks are leading and outperforming the metals.
Money goes where it is treated best. Computer software is scalable worldwide. The cloud is really, really cheap. Easy to develop software and websites for the cloud at a low initial price. Years ago I thought I might have to lay out 60-80,000 dollars for a rack of servers. With the cloud I get more then that for a dollar or two a month. I’ve even started a site for Portland.
If your software idea doesn’t work out, you haven’t lost much.
great comment on the cloud……
Dollar index is now below 100. Cdn dollar chart is looking good again:
https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-cad
A lot of Cdn dollar bears are in for a surprise.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=11&id=p34049067422&a=501512774
$CADUSD – this one doesn’t show today’s action yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CADUSD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p96941113576&a=501547112
The daily parabolic SAR flipped to long today:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54584874984
The weekly SAR went long a couple weeks ago:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25295377848
And the odds of another positive return for gold and silver in US dollar terms for 2016?
Extremely favorable.
The gold miners are in a bull market when priced in dollars or gold but the junior gold miners are in a bull market even when priced in the senior gold miners. GDXJ is worth 50% more GDX than it was just one year ago.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGDX&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p91488053989&a=407352347
It’s sure looks like a textbook W-shaped double-bottom to me, which is a solid pattern of support to build a new rally higher. The fact that the rally in 2016 took out so many prior peaks and troughs, and moving averages for the first time in years, was significant. Check out the end of the Jordan video above from the MIF and he points out the strength of the miners versus the metals, the further strength of the juniors in GDXJ over the majors in GDX, and goes even further to chart the outperformance of the Silver stocks in relation to the gold stocks. That’s been a point made here on the KER by multiple contributors for many years.
Good stuff!
Yup, it’s the silver juniors that really outperformed.
SILJ:GDXJ weekly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDXJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=22&id=p63073413974
Apparently on the Silver WingNuts are aware of this 😮
SIL has also outperformed GDXJ since the 2016 low but not by the same margin. It’s getting ready to extend that outperformance:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL%3AGDXJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=22&id=p69876447429
Gold Investors Prefer Miners To Physical Gold
Jan. 26, 2017
Mining ETFs have seen large steady inflows since Trump’s election.
Short sellers steer clear of large precious metal miners, but junior gold miners see average short selling hover near 18 month high.
Perseus Mining and Premier Gold Mine are the top recent short targets.
I notice your comments on volume in this chart. How do you interpret the volume on these ratio charts?
You read it like you would if you were pricing GDXJ in dollars instead of GDX. We can confirm this by turning things around and pricing GDX in GDXJ instead of pricing GDXJ in GDX.
Notice the huge volume in 2013 that warned of the tide turning against GDX and in favor of GDXJ (relatively, of course). The ratio went on to peak in early 2015 but volume had collapsed in a bearish non-confirmation.
I don’t know why the volume pattern isn’t the exact reverse of the volume pattern seen on the previous chart, but, with the benefit of hindsight, we do know that we got the expected action from a standard interpretations.
GDX:GDXJ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGDXJ&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p39237043811
Excellent, thanks 🙂
IEA welcomes Poland’s nuclear energy plans
25 January 2017
“Nuclear power could play a significant role in Poland’s energy supply, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The use of nuclear, it said, would enable the country to boost its electricity generation capacity from clean energy sources while strengthening its energy security.”
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-IEA-welcomes-Polands-nuclear-energy-plans-2701175.html
US House passes advanced Nuclear act
25 January 2017
“The US House of Representatives – the lower chamber of the United States Congress – has approved a handful of bipartisan bills from the last session of Congress that aim to bolster research on advanced nuclear reactors, allow for more challenges at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and change rules for federal efficiency standards. The Advanced Nuclear Technology Act of 2017 was passed by voice vote on 23 January.”
Going nuclear: Perry poised to lead renewable energy push
BY MARK PERRY, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR – 01/20/17
No……Re newable energy at State Dept…….Entire Sr. Mgt Resigns……….
Thank you,Cory and Doc