Weekend Show – Sat 11 Mar, 2017

PDAC Recap and Overall Gold Market and Stock Commentary

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It was s busy week for me this week attending the PDAC conference in Toronto. There was an upbeat mood at the show from both investors and companies. I was able to sit down with a number of different companies and will be featuring them over the rest of this month.

In this week’s show I chat with a few companies at the conference and a couple of my favorite analysts to discuss what is happening in the gold market. I am also joined by Peter Boockvar to recap some of the recent data that we have seen globally.

  • Segment 1: As requested by a number of listeners I get an update on Osisko Gold Royalties and the Company’s strategy throughout 2017.
  • Segment 2: Vincent Metcalfe and I continue our chat and focus on what Falco Resources has been up to and the news flow investors can expect.
  • Segment 3: Continued coverage from PDAC I get an update on Mariana Resources on the Hot Maden property as well as the other assets in Turkey, Ivory Coast and Argentina.
  • Segment 4: A replay of the most popular post this week – Doc and Cory compare the moves in Gold vs. Silver.
  • Segment 5 & 6: Byron King shares his thoughts on the tone at PDAC in the first segment. In the following segment he recaps his recent trip to visit Avino Silver and Gold Mines and his thoughts on Auryn Resources.
  • Segment 7 & 8: Wrapping up the show with Peter Boockvar and a recap of global data that needs to be considered for investors.

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Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

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Featuring:
Byron KingCory FleckGlen ParsonsPeter BoockvarRichard PostmaVincent Metcalfe

Comments:
  1. On March 11, 2017 at 3:15 am,
    Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

    Thanks guys – always enjoy Byron King. Me thinks PMs and their shares will get free of their corrective phase after this first quarter. This coming Wednesday the 15th will act as the watershed.

    • On March 11, 2017 at 4:01 am,
      Tad says:

      Beware the ides of March !

      • On March 11, 2017 at 11:20 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I’ve heard a number of proclamations from different sites explaining that March 15th is going to be a very pivotal day for economics and control, and we have it this week. 100 year anniversary of Rothschild’s plan, rate hike debate, many historical anniversaries on the March 15th, etc….

        We’ve heard these kinds of proclamations over and over and over again through the last few decades, but of course, I do see where the if the debt ceiling deal gets messy, the infrastructure spending won’t happen, and the economy could seize up and freeze up. This may be a lively week.

        • On March 11, 2017 at 12:27 pm,
          JohnK says:

          Hi Shad:
          March 15th is a pivotal day alright,but I would look a little longer out for the fireworks to start. The government has enough cash to run for a couple of months.
          David Stockman has been crying wolf for some time now, this time he could be right.
          The interesting thing of course, if this comes to fruition,how will gold and the gold miners react?
          Never a dull moment.

          • On March 11, 2017 at 3:30 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            JohnK – Thanks for those thoughts sir. Yes, I believe things will limp along like they have been, but there are a few chinks in the armor at this point, but typically things start breaking down slowly, and then suddenly all at once. I’m not putting anything other than mild fascination into it at this point, but will watch the news on the 15th to see if any significant news happens elsewhere (beyond the media smokescreen). As for whether gold and gold miners sell off with the general markets, maybe initially, but I feel they’d diverge over time (and have shown a mild inverse relationship to the general indexes.

            Yes, never a dull moment….. Cheers!

    • On March 11, 2017 at 12:02 pm,
      Tad says:
      • On March 11, 2017 at 3:33 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        On a March 15th 2,061 years ago, a gang of togaed conspirators assassinated Julius Caesar.

    • On March 11, 2017 at 12:03 pm,
      Tad says:
      • On March 11, 2017 at 3:35 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Nice one.

    • On March 12, 2017 at 12:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Cory – Good interview with Byron, and I agree with him that part of the reason for the seasonal run up in mining shares at the beginning of each year is the flood of news releases that companies put out leading up to PDAC. However, I’d add that many investors & funds wait until the beginning of the calendar year to position in new stocks, with funds they raised during tax loss selling at the end of the prior year. Jan & Feb are a time of re-balancing and re-positioning portfolios.

      As for this years decline that started a couple of weeks out, it started with falling Gold/Silver prices, but I agree with Byron that many traders likely wanted to front-run the normal seasonal decline and mining shares weakness in March (that happens to fall around and often culminates with PDAC). I know I trimmed a few of my favorites back a bit a little early, just in case we saw a pullback, but have already added most of them back over the last week.

      Good interview guys. Glad you discussed Avino Gold & Silver as well, and I’ve been a shareholder and fan for the last 2 years. Solid team, solid assets, and solid growth strategy.

  2. On March 11, 2017 at 3:27 am,
    Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:
    • On March 11, 2017 at 6:31 am,
      Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

      Hi Tony – Ever the optimist….your silver truck must be loaded down to its axles…don’t know where you get yours from but Bullion by Post does some good deals if you ask them….used silver 100 gram bars were their latest bargain.
      Take care, Andrew

  3. On March 11, 2017 at 3:29 am,
    irishtony says:

    Hello Andrew…..I like your opptimism . BTW How are you & your family ?

    • On March 11, 2017 at 6:33 am,
      Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

      Thanks too for asking after my family. Well you know families can be families….! Hope you and yours keep well too., A

  4. On March 11, 2017 at 4:47 am,
    CFS says:
    • On March 11, 2017 at 6:37 am,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      CFS; I believe some of Gary’s thoughts in this video have credence—I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little bump up in the GDX and then a move lower going into April and May. I mentioned on the blog yesterday to someone’s question that we have a chance for GDX to move back up to 23—but then we better watch out. Not being a trader, I really don’t care since I personally am a long term holder now and love these sell offs since they afford a lot of opportunity to add to long term positions.

      • On March 11, 2017 at 9:21 am,
        Pete says:

        Doc,

        Your comment,”but then we better watch out”,could you please elaborate on what you mean ?
        If i remember correctly, you thought that the 2016 December lows(miners) could hold,have your outlook changed on that ?

        I am still very bullish long term(trying to be patient)
        I have my core miners that i just add to on pullbacks,then i have others that i trimm and trade.

        Thanks

        • On March 11, 2017 at 10:28 am,
          Paul L says:

          I bought a big load of GDX right after the jobs report in the premarket as well as a big load of At&t the day before so my account is up nicely today. I would think gold could get a bounce up to resistance at 1225 or 1235 or 1238 and then resume the downtrend to below 1200 to the next support near 1187 and eventually lower. GDX could get to 23 to 23.41 max and then you have to jump off.

          • On March 11, 2017 at 10:54 am,
            Pete says:

            Thanks,Paul L.

          • On March 11, 2017 at 11:07 am,
            Paul L says:

            Looking at the charts not being any kind of expert, I think GDX should be sold when we hit 1225 as gold traders will start a selloff at that resistance level. I will not take chances and sell at that level which might be just under 22.75 to a little over 23 for GDX.

          • On March 11, 2017 at 3:59 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Paul L. – Those upwards resistance targets and downside targets seem quite reasonable. Much appreciated.

      • On March 11, 2017 at 2:30 pm,
        Paul L says:

        I believe he is correct in not waiting for a breakout to buy. The market can quickly turn back down as many if not most breakouts do fail just like in the oil sector where it has happened countless times.

    • On March 12, 2017 at 3:17 pm,
      Gator says:

      CFS..in my opinion Gary is right about cycles and sentiment being the best tools to enter or exit a market. What worked 46 years ago doesn’t work today.I experienced it first hand.
      Thanks for the post…regards…

  5. On March 11, 2017 at 6:34 am,
    Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

    Mr Savage ain’t my cup of tea CFS.

    • On March 11, 2017 at 10:31 am,
      Paul L says:

      Unlike Doc he gets too excited over his calls. Keeps claiming this time it is different and he can just feel it.

  6. On March 11, 2017 at 7:15 am,
    bowmano says:

    This is how I see it. Expect precious metals to go up and down (trending upward) until later in the year when slamming them will lead to tax loss selling by the herd which will slam them down some more. Then when tax loss selling is over the upward trend will resume, with the expectation of precious metals to go up and down until a time when slamming them next year will lead to tax loss selling. Wash, rinse, repeat.

  7. On March 11, 2017 at 7:55 am,
    ANON says:

    Brent Cook and Joe Mazumdar discuss Mining Stocks on BNN

    http://www.pennyminingstocks.com/video-brent-cook-and-joe-mazumdar-on-bnn/

    • On March 11, 2017 at 3:52 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Anon

  8. On March 11, 2017 at 8:51 am,
    b says:

    Here’s how bad it is. You wanna know how bad this is? They don’t even care about optics any more. JP Morgan yesterday announced for the last four years they have only experienced two days of trading loses. There’s about 200 trading days a year. So, out of 800 days only 2 days were loses, but 2016 that number was zero. No day loses and their average take, “from trading the markets” was $80 MILLION a day. Chris Martenson, The Daily Coin

    I think I recall somebody saying the purpose of the markets was to “fleece” people.

    Maybe JP Morgan shares would be the way to go.

    • On March 11, 2017 at 10:38 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      It is a wonderful world………..Ephesians 6:12

    • On March 11, 2017 at 2:04 pm,
      Markedtofuture says:

      By Rory Hall

      The system is rigged against each of us. If you are not a member of the “big club” then you, like myself, have to live with the fact that we are nothing more than an ATM for the uber wealthy. We supply all their toys, entertainment and wealth. The sad part is, we do it willingly.

      Here’s how bad it is. You wanna know how bad this is? They don’t even care about optics any more. JP Morgan yesterday announced for the last four years they have only experienced two days of trading loses. There’s about 200 trading days a year. So, out of 800 days only 2 days were loses, but 2016 that number was zero. No day loses and their average take, “from trading the markets” was $80 MILLION a day. Chris Martenson, The Daily Coin

      On Thursday March 2 silver was monkey-hammered to the tune of more than a 4% drop in under an hour. There was more than $2 BILLION of digital contracts dropped on the “market” during this time to achieve this massive drop. Gold was, to a degree, spared and only suffered about a 2% drop. Silver was the focus of the bullion banking cartel.

      Here’s the thing. These criminal banksters do NOTHING to produce wealth. Their job is stealing. If you or I were to commit a crime, like market rigging, we would be in federal prison on several felony charges, including conspiracy, and would be treated like the criminal we are. The banksters, on the other hand, are treated like royalty for committing the same crime on a global scale. Their crimes should actually be considered crimes against humanity as these crimes impact millions upon millions of people.

      We have to work for our money, but JP Morgan “making” $80 MILLION A DAY, they don’t do anything for that. They don’t produce a single thing. They don’t build a single house; not one good gets produced or shipped. Not one service gets performed. It’s just a skimming operation; that honestly doesn’t even involve people anymore, it’s just computers. Chris Martenson, The Daily Coin

      http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1488726634.php

    • On March 11, 2017 at 11:23 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Pete for the Pretzel Logic info. My mind feels like a pretzel after looking at those charts 🙂

      • On March 11, 2017 at 11:38 am,
        Pete says:

        🙂

  9. On March 11, 2017 at 9:56 am,
    Pete says:
    • On March 11, 2017 at 11:26 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I am looking forward to the drilling campaigns or assay results in 2017 on a couple dozen companies. Looking forward to seeing if a few producers find goods around their existing mines, and developers expanding and stepping out resources, and JVs with Prospect Generators doing their exploration work, and then the pure play explorers doing everything from drilling, to geochem, rock chip sampling, trenching, VTEM maps, or just better understanding the geological formations and prior historic drilling better.

      2017 should have a nice bit of news flow in the exploration arena. Looking forward to it.

      • On March 11, 2017 at 11:56 am,
        Pete says:

        Yes, looking forward to it

  10. On March 11, 2017 at 10:13 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On March 11, 2017 at 10:29 am,
      Paul L says:

      Oil may bounce off 45 for a quick trade but it then heads to about 43. New range could be 43 to 48 area.

    • On March 11, 2017 at 11:27 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed Matthew. I think Oil is in trouble, and they have not dealt with the supply glut yet.

      • On March 11, 2017 at 4:00 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Ex, oil is in trouble because the world is changing, electric cars are the future, I can’t say enough to investors look at 2 years down the road. This is not 1890 when New York city was being wired for electric lamps. The future is now and it is coming on very fast, almost every week we get dramatic changes that were once only happening every 10 years. DT

    • On March 11, 2017 at 11:01 pm,
      Nick says:

      Mathew, wait until the chinese list a Yuan denominated oil futures contract (which they keep delaying). Then countries like Russia (and others) will be able to sell oil, get paid in Yuan and convert it to gold….then, according to the chinese, who have stock piled the heck out of gold, “gold will reveal its true value”. Countries like russia will be able to bid up Gold if they believe that the chinese are mismanaging the Yuan….adios Petrodollar and Hola gold up a lot higher. To be honest though, I wouldn’t have a clue how long this will take to play out.

      • On March 12, 2017 at 12:21 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks Nick. Very interesting on the Yuan denominated oil futures contract.

  11. On March 11, 2017 at 10:15 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDX thoroughly backtested the 377 day MA before turning up (377 is a Fibonacci number)…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=11&id=p16288274480&a=507920455

  12. On March 11, 2017 at 11:17 am,
    Pete says:

    Matthew,

    GDX bounce to 23-24, then down to 19-20 ? 🙂

  13. On March 11, 2017 at 11:29 am,
    Excelsior says:

    bitibi Royalties: Reserve & Resource Update Plus Royalty Production Schedule 2017-2019, New Royalty Acquired Adjacent to Red Lake Mine, 45,700 Shares Repurchased Under Normal Course Issuer Bid
    (Marketwired – March 10, 2017) – Abitibi Royalties Inc. (TSX VENTURE:RZZ)

    “is pleased to announce the receipt of the year-end 2016 gold Reserve and Resource estimate completed by the Canadian Malartic Partnership (“Canadian Malartic”), operated by Agnico Eagle Mines Limited and Yamana Gold Inc., in respect of the Company’s net smelter return (“NSR”) interests on various areas of the Canadian Malartic mine. These areas include Odyssey, Barnat, Jeffrey and Gouldie. In addition, Canadian Malartic has provided a production schedule for areas covered by the Company’s NSR interests during the years 2017-2019.”

    “The Odyssey discovery is proving to be important part of Canadian Malartic’s future after only 1.5 years of continual drilling. With another 100,000 metres planned at the mine in 2017, plus the impressive assay results that were recently released from the new internal zone at Odyssey, this deposit looks to have a bright future and should continue to experience exciting growth at no cost to our shareholders.

    “In addition, several other areas covered by our royalties are either moving towards production, currently in development or at an exploration stage but with meaningful drill results, such as the Norrie Zone, also at Canadian Malartic. We are in a unique position that should allow us to continue to build the Company for the benefit of existing shareholders. We have one of the strongest balance sheets amongst companies of our size, no debt, limited expenses, positive cash flow, a small share count where the number of shares are set to go down, not up and we continue to build our portfolio of additional royalties through bolt-on acquisitions. This is why I have invested all my after tax salary in the Company for the past 2.5 years and have no plans to stop,” stated Ian Ball, president and CEO.”

    https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1366-tsx-venture/rzz/30180-abitibi-royalties-reserve-resource-update-plus-royalty-production-schedule-2017-2019-new-royalty-acquired-adjacent-to-red-lake-mine-45-700-shares-repurchased-under-normal-course-issuer-bid.html

    • On March 11, 2017 at 11:31 am,
      Excelsior says:

      As a reminder – what is good for RZZ is also good for GZZ that (owns 49% of RZZ), and then has exposure to so many other projects.

      This expansion at Canadian Malartic is getting pretty interesting….

  14. On March 11, 2017 at 1:00 pm,
    BDC says:
    • On March 11, 2017 at 1:47 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The dollar looks like it “knows” the Fed will hike on Wednesday…

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p77099043728&a=511365632

      • On March 11, 2017 at 3:39 pm,
        BDC says:

        That is almost a given. However, the FED statement may insinuate what acceleration of rate increases may ensue.

        • On March 11, 2017 at 3:52 pm,
          Matthew says:

          In case I was unclear, it looks like the dollar is going down.

          The euro has much less downside risk at the moment:

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XEU&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=11&id=p50362065908

          • On March 12, 2017 at 6:05 pm,
            BDC says:

            Have you seen a longer term perspective of the EURO?

          • On March 12, 2017 at 9:38 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Yes, I have but the weekly chart is more valuable right now.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XEU&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=11&id=p76227305076&a=512239046

          • On March 12, 2017 at 9:40 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Here’s 37 years of the dollar. It is due for a protracted decline:

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p74000073054&a=511560549

          • On March 13, 2017 at 9:23 am,
            BDC says:

            Thanks! Draw an extended trendline from the 1985 high to the 2001 high. Recent highs have broken that to the upside. The trendline is a most powerful indicator.

          • On March 13, 2017 at 9:35 am,
            Matthew says:

            Yes, I noticed that a long time ago but some trendlines are better than others. I trust the two pitchforks that I placed on that chart more than I trust that trendline. However, even if my trust is misplaced, a move down to that trendline would take the dollar into the 80s.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p74000073054&a=512328807

          • On March 13, 2017 at 9:59 am,
            BDC says:

            The trendline has provided recent support.
            https://s9.postimg.org/s407jm1zj/Dollar_20170310_Long_Term.png

          • On March 13, 2017 at 10:10 am,
            Matthew says:

            That is true but price is now way above it and the 200 week MA and, cyclically, the move is long in the tooth.

            As you can see, there is plenty of resistance just above the current level:

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p00644259030&a=511475317

          • On March 13, 2017 at 10:21 am,
            BDC says:

            Nice rising wedge. Bill must love it!
            But has it topped, considering ongoing FED rate increases?
            That’s why the verbiage along with the likely rate increase Wednesday is so important. Yellen has been giving press conferences after these announcements. Wednesday at 2:30pm — half an hour after the fastest readers on earth react to the news…lol.

          • On March 13, 2017 at 10:34 am,
            Matthew says:

            “Looking at the monetary tightening that began in February 1994 and June 2004, the dollar strengthened substantially in both cases before the first rate hike, but then weakened by around 8% (as gauged by the Fed’s dollar index) in the subsequent six months. Over the next two-to-three years, the dollar index remained consistently below its level on the day of the first rate hike. For currency traders, therefore, the last two cycles of Fed tightening turned out to be classic examples of “buy on the rumour; sell on the news.”

            https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/17/what-a-us-interest-rate-rise-really-means-for-the-dollar

          • On March 13, 2017 at 10:40 am,
            Matthew says:

            Remember, gold rallied 30% following the 12/2015 hike while the dollar rose for a few weeks and then dropped 8% in the following several months.

          • On March 13, 2017 at 10:43 am,
            BDC says:
          • On March 13, 2017 at 11:04 am,
            Matthew says:

            He could be right about gold reaching 1195 during U.S. market hours; it already did in the middle of the night recently.

            On March 7, 2017 at 5:46 pm,
            Matthew says:
            …it looks like gold is going lower. There’s quite a bit of support in the $1206 to 1200 area. If 1195 doesn’t hold, the 1180 area comes into play.

  15. On March 11, 2017 at 2:41 pm,
    Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

    G to TF Metals for a great interview with Andy Maguire. Approx 60 mins.

  16. On March 11, 2017 at 3:04 pm,
    Matthew says:

    On a monthly closing basis, GDX has remained above its 2008 crash low since March, 2016.
    The following is a weekly chart since most can’t view the monthly:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=9&mn=3&dy=22&id=p45364418416&a=512023944

  17. On March 11, 2017 at 3:48 pm,
    David says:

    Gentlemen – I like gold and silver more then most folks, but I am also a realist. The reality seems we are headed into a deflationary singularity. This is what gold has been broadcasting for several years now. Let it happen (because you don’t want to stand in its way) and have plenty of the metals when we come out the other end – which, from the way it looks now, may be another 2 years or so! Lamenting as to why gold does not go up, or whining about it when it goes down, is completely missing the point. Relax, have faith in your investment decision, don’t buy using leverage, do this and you will end up a very happy man!

  18. On March 11, 2017 at 3:52 pm,
    David says:

    P.S. – Dont listen to the carnival barkers, i.e., Andrew Maguire, Eric Sprott’ boy (sorry forgot his name), these guys will have you broke in a year listening to them.

  19. On March 11, 2017 at 3:54 pm,
    David says:

    Rick Rule

    • On March 11, 2017 at 5:15 pm,
      Matthew says:

      David, Rick Rule has hardly been a carnival barker. In fact, he was more like a pail of cold water in 2011 when compared to other bulls.

      As for deflation, the money supply is not shrinking and prices are not falling. There is no threat of deflation. The only deflation we can count on is in the purchasing power of the world’s currencies.

      Silver is still up 19% versus gold since the low last year precisely because silver outperforms gold when inflationary forces are dominant.

      I agree with your last line.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=7&id=p58408085430&a=510416953

  20. On March 11, 2017 at 4:03 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Tech metals supply lagging demand as electric car production increases
    10th March 2017 BY: DAVID OLIVEIRA

    “Moores tells Mining Weekly that the “profound’ effect that battery cell manufacturing has had on lithium production is expected to have a similar effect on other metals, such as cobalt, graphite and copper, typically used in the production of technology.”

    http://m.miningweekly.com/article/tech-metals-supply-lagging-demand-as-electric-car-production-increases-2017-03-10/rep_id:3861

    • On March 11, 2017 at 4:09 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Time To Top Up On The Junior Lithium Miners
      Mar. 10, 2017 3:07 PM – Matt Bohlsen

      “…We can see from the graph above the price falls were worst in February. Orocobre (OTCPK:OROCF, ASX:ORE, TSX:ORL) was perhaps the worst hit, however Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) (OTCPK:GALXF), Altura Mining (ASX:AJM)(OTCPK:ALTAF), Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) (OTC:PILBF), Lithium Americas (TSX:LAC) (OTCQX:LACDF) and Lithium X (TSXV:LIX) (ROCEF) (OTCQB:LIXXF) amongst others, were hit hard. The fall was across most of the junior pure play lithium miners. It has affected the Australian and the Canadian miners, the brine and the spodumene plays, the producers, developers and explorers indiscriminately. In other words it has been a sector wide fall across the lithium juniors. The only exception is the large diversified lithium miners such as Albermarle (NYSE:ALB), SQM (NYSE:SQM) and FMC (NYSE:FMC) that have been spared, as well as the Chinese Gangfeng Lithium (SHE:002460) and Chengdu Tianqi Lithium (SHE:002466). So it appears the pure play junior lithium miners is the common theme of those that got hit. Interesting that the Chinese lithium stocks rose, while the Chinese EV sales fell.”

      http://seekingalpha.com/article/4054237-time-top-junior-lithium-miners

      • On March 11, 2017 at 4:14 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I think part of the money that was in Lithium, was re-allocated over to Cobalt and Graphite, and this accelerated the pullback.

        Having said that, most of those companies just named in that article are doing just fine, as the real Lithium companies (which finally the markets is coming to realize), and that we are entering an area of good value for adding to some of these legitimate Lithium stocks. My plan is to add to my 5 positions and maybe pick up a 6th over the next few weeks.

        • On March 11, 2017 at 4:18 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Uranium stocks are at values that are starting to look more attractive again as well.

        • On March 11, 2017 at 8:33 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          Ex, the world is awash in lithium, I agree with Rick Rule, lithium is going to leave a lot of investors holding the bag. There is more cobalt in lithium ion batteries than lithium, cobalt is not that easily produced. The price increase of cobalt is the market telling us so.

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:27 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            There are still growing demand needs for Lithium, but as I’ve pounded the table on for the last 3 years, only the quality companies (like the ones mentioned in that article) will survive and 90% of the Lithium stocks are rubbish and marketing fluff. The companies listed above will be the ones supplying any lithium needed, and the rest will just turn into Graphite, Weed, Gold, biotech, or go bye bye.

            I agree with you on Cobalt and have been quite vocal on it here for last 6 months (so you’re preaching to the choir there my friend 🙂 ) DT, I’ve tried to get your attention 3 times about all the info Cobalt info I posted on Thursday morning after your comments on that blog. (at the bottom of the blog)

            http://www.kereport.com/2017/03/09/technical-outlooks-gold-oil/

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:32 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here – I’ll just post a few of the articles here for any investors following Cobalt:

            On March 10, 2017 at 6:08 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed DT. (by the way…. so does Robert Freidland).
            ___________________________________________________________________________

            Billionaire likes our elements for electric cars
            The Australian – February 7, 2017 – MATT CHAMBERS

            “The $900 million Syerston cobalt and nickel project in central west NSW will be in the spotlight at the world’s biggest mining investment conference this week as billionaire mining explorer and promoter Robert Friedland talks up its ­potential to help feed accelerating electric vehicle demand.

            Mr Friedland, the US-born, Canadian founder of Ivanhoe Mines, was the driving force behind the establishment of Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine in Mongolia and was last year appointed co-chairman of Melbourne-based Clean TeQ, which owns Syerston.

            The renowned mining entrepreneur is now making the mine the focus of his famously infectious briefings, telling delegates at the African Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town that Syerston will be the first mine developed to exclusively supply the global lithium-ion battery industry with nickel and cobalt.
            In slides lodged with the Australian stock exchange before the conference, Mr Friedland said lithium-iron batteries were essentially cobalt and nickel batteries, with the two elements making up about 20 per cent of the cost of the batteries — compared with about 4 per cent for lithium. “Syerston is uniquely positioned as one of the largest and highest-grade sources of cobalt outside Africa,” Mr Friedland, who owns 19.35 per cent of Clean TeQ, said in the slides.

            Cobalt prices are up 65 per cent this year and trading at a five-year high of $US37,500 a tonne on the back of their exposure to growth in battery demand…”

            http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/robert-friedland-promotes-nations-role-in-electric-car-future/news-story/e419d49d8cd59b192cf045fde01cc508

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Cobalt: will 2017 be a year of change?
            Roskill | 7 days ago

            “After several years of an oversupplied market and weak cobalt prices, many market commentators are expecting 2017 to be a big year for cobalt. The hype is understandable. Prices have risen sharply this year, with Metal Bulletin’s High Grade Free Market price increasing from US$15/lb at the start of the year to over US$24/lb in March. But why?

            On the demand side, the answer is clear. Strong demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries is set to continue. In addition, cobalt demand is forecast to grow strongly in other key end-use applications such as high performance alloys, tool materials, and catalysts.

            On the supply side, many point to the high concentration of cobalt by-production in the DRC as a cause for concern. But while the political situation and infrastructure challenges in the DRC have the potential to impact the market, DRC concentrate supply is growing rapidly as output expands. This should see enough feedstock for cobalt intermediates, refined metal, and refined chemical production reach the market.

            While many point to the surging demand for cobalt on one hand and supply risk issues on the other, Roskill expects refined chemical production to able to meet demand over the coming years, and the battery industry should therefore be well supplied.

            There are, however, some supply-side constraints which may be impacting the price. Importantly, a number of suspensions, most notably Katanga Mining in the DRC, have contributed to a tight metal market. This, coupled with strategic stockpiling, may be artificially inflating the cobalt price. The Financial Times reported last week that half a dozen funds have purchased and stored an estimated 6,000 tonnes of cobalt, worth as much as US$280M. As detailed in Roskill’s upcoming Cobalt Report, there has already been material taken out of the market in recent years. China State Reserve Bureau (SRB) has moved to purchase considerable quantities of cobalt since 2014.”

            http://www.mining.com/web/cobalt-will-2017-be-a-year-of-change/

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The Critical Ingredients Needed to Fuel the Battery Boom
            JEFF DESJARDINS on October 26, 2016

            “Lithium isn’t the only metal that goes into the cathode – other metals like cobalt, manganese, aluminum, and nickel are also used in different formulations. Here’s four cathode chemistries, the metal proportions (excluding lithium), and an example of what they are used for….”

            http://www.visualcapitalist.com/critical-ingredients-fuel-battery-boom/

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Glencore Is on to a Winner With This Obscure Metal
            by Mark Burton – March 7, 2017

            “Cobalt is having a moment in the spotlight. Historically a minor byproduct of copper and nickel mining, the metal is a key ingredient for lithium-ion batteries and now a growing money maker for Glencore Plc.
            In the past eight months, prices more than doubled on speculation that supply won’t keep up with demand for batteries in electric cars. Glencore, the largest cobalt producer, plans to about double output by 2018, and only coal, copper and zinc offer more of an earnings boost when prices rise.

            Cobalt, which has been in oversupply for years, was often treated as an afterthought at the copper and nickel mines where it’s found. Now, demand for the once obscure metal that’s mined largely in the Democratic Republic of Congo is soaring as it graduates from mobiles to larger batteries in electric vehicles and homes.”

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-08/cobalt-steps-out-of-the-shadows-as-glencore-s-new-star-player

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:35 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Rick Rule was talking about Cobalt over a year ago as was Friedland. (which is probably why RR was in the first place…. 😉 )
            ____________________________________________________________________________

            Rick Rule: Cobalt Bubble Coming; Kaminak & the Yukon; Streaming & Royalties
            Tuesday May 24, 2016

            http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-05-23/Cobalt-Bubble-Coming-Kaminak-the-Yukon-Streaming-Royalties.html

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:36 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Why Cobalt (Not Lithium) Could Be The Battery Boom’s Big Commodity Winner
            By Sam Broom – Sprott’s Thoughts

            “You’ve probably given little thought to a perennially overlooked metal called cobalt, even though chances are you’re reading this very article on a device powered by a battery containing a significant proportion of the metal.
            fig1.jpg

            Figure 1: Pure (99.9 %) cobalt chips, electrolytically refined. Source: Wikipedia image commons

            I’m going to spend most of this article outlining an emerging narrative that argues that we could be in the early stages of a significant revaluation in the cobalt space. But before I do, I want you to cast your mind back a couple of years to a time before the recent speculative mania that overtook a previously obscure commodity called lithium.”

            “The Lithium Boom – A Case Study For What Could Be Ahead For Cobalt:”

            “Before joining Sprott, I worked as an engineering geologist in Australia, and back in 2014 I was involved on a project for a struggling hard rock lithium miner. Among a host of issues, the mine was struggling with low prices of the resources with which it produced, primarily lithium. Even though the “battery revolution” was well underway and other battery related commodities, namely graphite, had been booming, lithium prices remained stubbornly low.

            That all changed toward the end of 2015 as fears about a looming supply shortage caused the price of lithium to embark on the rather dramatic rise that we’ve seen over the past 18 months. To cut a long story short, the result has been a significant re-rate across the industry as the bulk of lithium exposed miners and explorers experienced sometimes staggering share price appreciations – the chart below showing the greater than 2,000% rise of ASX listed lithium miner Galaxy Resources being one of the more spectacular examples….”

            http://secure.campaigner.com/csb/Public/show/f33sp–buh53-5l3rpl44

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:37 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Mining Companies Have Dug Themselves Out Of A Hole
            Mar 11th 2017 – The richest seam

            “Electric vehicles and batteries are expected to create huge demand for Copper and Cobalt”

            “Yet Glencore could still acquire a halo for itself. It is one of the world’s biggest suppliers of copper and the biggest of cobalt, much of which comes from its investment in the DRC. These are vital ingredients for clean-tech products and industries, notably electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries.”

            “The potential of “green” metals and minerals, which along with copper and cobalt include nickel, lithium and graphite, is adding to renewed excitement about investing in mining firms as they emerge from the wreckage of a $1trn splurge of over-investment during the China-led commodities supercycle, which began in the early 2000s. The most bullish argue that clean energy could be an even bigger source of demand than China has been in the past 15 years or so….”

            http://www.economist.com/news/business/21718532-electric-vehicles-and-batteries-are-expected-create-huge-demand-copper-and-cobalt-mining

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:38 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is a one year chart of Cobalt but not sure if it is from futures contracts or the CME or where.

            http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/cobalt/1-year/

          • On March 12, 2017 at 12:38 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here are a number of different duration Cobalt charts on the same site:

            http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/cobalt/

    • On March 12, 2017 at 12:44 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      On the copper front…. From that article already referenced:

      Mining Companies Have Dug Themselves Out Of A Hole
      Mar 11th 2017 – The richest seam

      “BHP, which has looked closely at EV-related demand, estimates that an average battery-powered EV will contain 80 kilograms of copper, four times as much as an internal-combustion engine. This is split between the engine (the largest share), the battery and the wiring harness. It forecasts that by 2035 there could be 140m EVs on the road (8% of the global fleet), versus 1m today. Manufacturing them could require at least 8.5m tonnes a year of additional copper, or about a third extra on top of today’s total global copper demand.”

      “According to Sanford C. Bernstein, which uses a bold estimate that almost all new cars will be electric by 2035, global copper supplies would need to double to meet demand by then. Finding and digging up all the metals that stand to benefit, plus new smelting and refining capacity, could require up to $1trn in new investment by mining companies, it says. Hunter Hillcoat of Investec, a bank, says the transition could require the addition of a copper mine the size of Chile’s Escondida, the world’s biggest, every year.”

      http://www.economist.com/news/business/21718532-electric-vehicles-and-batteries-are-expected-create-huge-demand-copper-and-cobalt-mining

      • On March 12, 2017 at 12:59 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Bob Moriarty: We Have Confused Shuffling Pieces of Paper With The Creation of Wealth
        by Ceo Technician |MARCH 12, 2017

        * CEO Tech: “What do you think about Northern Dynasty (NYSE: NAK, TSX:NDM) and some of the recent stuff which has been in the news involving short selling fund Kerrisdale Capital?”

        ** Bob Moriarty: “Here’s the deal and I need to give your readers some background. I was the first writer to talk about Northern Dynasty back in 2003, I think the shares were $.50 or so and it was an extraordinary deal back then. Back in 2003 Pebble was a work in progress and since then there has been hundreds of millions of dollars invested in outlining the resource.”

        “We didn’t know the story then but we do know the story now. There was a PEA released recently which showed that at current day’s metal prices the return on investment (ROI) would be 14% and that’s on a project which will cost US$15 billion to put into production. The length of time it will take from when it’s fully permitted to when it’s pouring gold and copper is probably 5-10 years, and that’s AFTER it’s fully permitted, which of course it is not right now. With a 14% return and given the timeline you’re going to go through an entire mining cycle. I don’t think there’s a chance in hell it will ever be put into production.”

        Everybody gets way too optimistic or way too pessimistic about that project, they either love it or they hate it and they change their point of view. Given the information that we have today and given that it is a very important watershed project in Alaska I don’t think it will ever go into production. Now it would be a different story if it had a 40% ROI, in that case it would be put into production regardless of everything else. But the money just isn’t there, there are too many other projects with 25%, 30%, 40% returns which will go into production first. Pebble is too big, and it’s the big projects that take the longest and have the most trouble moving into production. Novagold has been screwing around up in Alaska since 2001 and it’s sixteen years later and they have yet to pour an ounce of gold.”

        * CEO Technician: “We have seen energy metals continue to climb higher, especially cobalt and zinc. What are your thoughts on cobalt, graphite, nickel, zinc, etc.? Are there any specific exploration plays in this sector that you would like to mention?”

        ** Bob Moriarty: “Cobalt, graphite, lithium, zinc are all in tremendous demand. We had a 5,000 year low in commodities in January 2016. Commodities are in the process of correcting right now and it’s not a big deal. Commodities in general are cheap, energy metals are especially cheap.”

        http://energyandgold.com/2017/03/12/bob-moriarty-we-have-confused-shuffling-pieces-of-paper-with-the-creation-of-wealth/

        • On March 13, 2017 at 7:16 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Bob is always a good read……or almost always………… jootb

          • On March 13, 2017 at 7:17 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            at least he does not bs around…….you know what he thinks

  21. On March 11, 2017 at 5:14 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    HAYWOOD RESEARCH: The Weekly Dig – PDAC: Mood Remains Buoyant Despite Lower Metal Prices Inboxx

    The Weekly Dig – March 10, 2017

    by Mick Carew, PhD, and The Haywood Mining Team

    PDAC: Mood Remains Buoyant Despite Lower Metal Prices

    $PGM – Pure Gold Mining Inc
    $SMF – SEMAFO Inc
    $NXE – Nexgen Energy
    $EFR – Energy Fuels

    https://ceo.ca/@haywood/haywood-research-the-weekly-dig-pdac-mood-remains-buoyant-despite-lower-metal-prices-inboxx

    • On March 12, 2017 at 11:07 am,
      Matthew says:

      Thanks for the link.

      Coffin and I agree: Real rates are negative because inflation is rising and the crowded trades are long dollar and short euro. The dollar is going down in the coming months.

  22. On March 12, 2017 at 1:54 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    The US debr ceiling is fast approaching. I cant help but think it will be a non-event just like in the past. It is interesting nonetheless.

    $20 trillion in debt is incredible. Does anyone seriously think this figure can be paid off? If so, how long can you hold onto this sort of gargantuan debt before being held accountable? After all, the longterm trend suggests the debt figure never decreases or even plateaus. So where does it end, bankruptcy declaration?

    • On March 12, 2017 at 3:17 am,
      CFS says:

      Ozi, I think you underestimate the hatred the Democrats have for Trump. They will do anything they can to put what roadblocks they can to his agenda.

      • On March 12, 2017 at 6:03 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Fair point CFS. We shall see I suppose

  23. On March 12, 2017 at 12:31 pm,
    GH says:

    Two weeks ago I thought that interest rates were finally heading back down for one last dip. But it bounced right back up and is pushing the limit that Bill Gross said would mark the end of the bond bull: 2.6% for the 10-year–Gundlach says no,it’s 3%. Wednesday may be a very important date.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p45776452184&a=499583201

  24. On March 12, 2017 at 9:24 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (EXK) Endeavour Silver: “The Only Way to Rebuild Confidence is to do a Good Job”
    ResourceCapitalAG – Mar 7, 2017
    Interview After the Sharp Share Price Drop with Bradford Cooke

    10 drills working, plans to build 3 more mines

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPRAPMO2mlI

    • On March 13, 2017 at 7:40 am,
      Bonzo Barzini says:

      Thanks, maybe I should buy more EXK…

      • On March 13, 2017 at 11:46 am,
        Excelsior says:

        EXK was far too oversold on that earnings report miss, so I grabbed a position on the selloff and it bounced nicely Friday and today.

  25. On March 12, 2017 at 9:51 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Rye Patch Gold Site-visit, in February 2017
    ResourceCapitalAG – Mar 9, 2017

    Rye Patch Gold Site-visit, February 2017. Impressions from the mining operations.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BskfABzMCc

  26. On March 12, 2017 at 11:46 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (WKM) (WKLDF) West Kirkland MIning – Corporate Presentation

    Gold Development company near Scorpio Gold & Corvus Gold. Very under the radar still…..

    http://www.wkmining.com/investors/presentations/

  27. On March 13, 2017 at 12:14 am,
    Excelsior says:

    PDAC Awards (TGZ) (TGCDF) Teranga Gold for Responsible Mining
    2017 Environmental & Social Responsibility Award Winner

    “We believe that our success is tied to the achievement of the goals of our host communities and our reputation as a responsible partner in sustainable resource development,” said Richard Young, President and CEO, Teranga. “On behalf of our directors, employees, investors, and the local communities in which we operate, we are proud to accept this recognition of our commitment to responsible mining and building a strong social license in West Africa.”

    http://www.terangagold.com/English/investors/news/newsreleasedetails/2017/PDAC-Awards-Teranga-Gold-for-Responsible-Mining/default.aspx

  28. On March 13, 2017 at 7:36 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Thanks Ex for all your endeavors, it is appreciated by me and many others. DT

    • On March 13, 2017 at 11:47 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks DT.

  29. On March 13, 2017 at 9:33 am,
    Pete says:

    +1

  30. On March 13, 2017 at 9:43 am,
    Matthew says:

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