Rick Ackerman’s Technical Forecasts – Thu 9 Mar, 2017

Technical outlooks for Gold and Oil

To kick off today Rick and I take a look at the gold and crude oil charts. Both are moving down today with crude back under $50/ barrel. Here’s a hint on what Rick has to say on both of these markets… It’s not good.

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  1. On March 9, 2017 at 9:31 am,
    spanky says:

    SLV’ s daily stochastics pretty much hitting zero today.

    This is either going to play out like November 2015-December 2015 (a very slow grind lower from here before a big rally), or SLV bottoms this week or next.

    Also, looking at the 2 hour chart, the RSI is extremely oversold. The only times it has been this oversold, it was 1) followed by a big rally within days or 2) during November 2015, where despite the RSI getting similarly oversold, silver still managed to grind lower for a month or two before the huge 2016 rally.

  2. On March 9, 2017 at 9:45 am,
    Red Dragon says:

    I hope you enjoyed your meal Rick. Hehe!

    • On March 9, 2017 at 10:17 am,
      Jade Helm says:

      Rick was dining on gold and oil bulls and it sounded like they are rather crunchy.

      • On March 9, 2017 at 1:54 pm,
        Excelsior says:


    • On March 9, 2017 at 10:31 am,
      Bonzo Barzini says:

      Maybe it was javelinas outside his window again.

      • On March 9, 2017 at 2:01 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Re-posting prior comments from Feb 23rd as they still apply 😮


        > On February 23, 2017 at 8:35 am,
        Jay says:

        “Was there a brontosaurus sitting next to Rick during this interview?”
        > On February 23, 2017 at 8:40 am,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        “It was a pack of ravenous javelinas.”

        > On February 23, 2017 at 9:03 am,
        Matthew says:

        “Collar that collared peccary!”


        > On February 23, 2017 at 10:29 am,
        Chartster says:

        “Peccary saw his shadow, and tried to eat it! 😆 ”

        > On February 23, 2017 at 11:34 am,
        Excelsior says:

        “That means we get an early Spring.”

        > On February 23, 2017 at 11:17 am,
        Marty says:

        “Always a potpourri of things to learn here’”

        > On February 23, 2017 at 11:23 am,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        “I saw a large pride of Javelinas in Big Bend Nat’l Park in Dec. I bought a wonderful javelina doll to put under my Christmas tree.”

        > On February 23, 2017 at 9:59 am,
        Steele says:

        “Sounds like Darth Vader doing some light snoring or a reptilian alien hybrid shapeshifter about to strike its prey. Hope Rick is okay there.”

        On February 23, 2017 at 11:35 am,
        > Excelsior says:

        “That made me chuckle….. 🙂 “

      • On March 9, 2017 at 3:55 pm,
        Jade Helm says:

        Ricardo and The Javelinas….would make a great band.

        • On March 10, 2017 at 5:55 am,
          Excelsior says:


  3. On March 9, 2017 at 9:49 am,
    b says:

    Nickel price is plummeting

    Down nearly $800 since Monday as Indonesia ore exports return to market, Philippines rethink mine closures.

  4. On March 9, 2017 at 9:53 am,
    Peter R. says:

    I am on repeat for a reason with QMC. You guys should seriously consider taking a position in QMC. Market Cap is still very low. Do some DD and call the CEO. It is just starting to wake up and is an easy near term 3 to 10 bagger from here. Apparently the PP was taken by some big players. Not investment advice. Just take a look and do a bit of DD.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 2:12 pm,
      Peter R. says:

      Paging Bob Moriarty. Not sure if you have consider QMC but would love your feedback. QMC qualifies as exactly the type of company Bob M. would get involved with.

  5. On March 9, 2017 at 10:26 am,
    Peter R. says:

    What majors and intermediates have fallen the hardest during this slump? YRI and IMG and AU?

  6. On March 9, 2017 at 11:04 am,
    Matthew says:

    We have a positive divergence today; gold and silver are down more than the miners.

    SLV is just above speed line and Fibonacci fan support and is at a Fibonacci time zone. It is very likely to turn up in a day or two:


    • On March 9, 2017 at 11:06 am,
      Matthew says:
      • On March 9, 2017 at 11:38 am,
        spanky says:

        Of course from a cycles perspective, that target spells doom since it will constitute a lower low.

        • On March 9, 2017 at 12:07 pm,
          GH says:

          Maybe, but there is some uncertainty about whether the January low was a daily cycle low, or just a half-cycle low and now we are declining into the daily cycle low.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 11:34 am,
      Steele says:

      Thanks, Matthew. Getting closer…

    • On March 9, 2017 at 2:04 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “Metals don’t let your babies grow up to be miners…..”

  7. On March 9, 2017 at 11:09 am,
    Jason says:

    Bah! I can’t make any monies! I got scouts on JNUG JDST DUST NUGT USLV DSLV and ZSL. Might make some lunch money today. What the heck is going on? Markets locked up tight.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 12:09 pm,
      GH says:

      Scouts? Put ’em to work selling cookies and you’ll do well! har har har

      • On March 9, 2017 at 2:06 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Ha! Sound advice GH.

        Girls scouts are actually the best salespeople on the planet. They don’t take no for an answer and produce more revenues than most companies these days.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 2:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Jason, I wrote you back again on yesterday’s blog about Paladin. (figured out what was up…)

  8. On March 9, 2017 at 11:24 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Silver stinks …………..time to buy……….

  9. On March 9, 2017 at 11:28 am,
    b says:

    always time to buy jerry.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 11:32 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      …… 🙂

      • On March 9, 2017 at 11:33 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        this is almost becoming a joke………

        • On March 9, 2017 at 11:42 am,
          b says:

          I calculated how much I needed so that I could sell enough monthly to cover expenses (plus the occasional bit of entertainment. lol) for the rest of my days.
          At that point, buying more becomes meaningless.

          • On March 9, 2017 at 11:53 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I would have to agree………

          • On March 9, 2017 at 11:58 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            remember this junk silver needs to cover inflation in the future…….

          • On March 9, 2017 at 12:35 pm,
            b says:

            I have “junk” silver, the 5 cent pcs were the only 1 grams I could find at the time.
            I was buying 100/200 pcs at a time for maybe $50-$75, now I rarely find more than a few at a time. Mostly singles.

            What I think is funny is the numismatic value has gone up about 10x+.

            Recall all the talk of dont consider collector stuff? lol

            I wasnt collecting but couldnt help myself buying all the years anyway.
            Just funny.

          • On March 9, 2017 at 2:30 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ditto on the numismatic value……..funny how some have overlooked the extra value

          • On March 9, 2017 at 2:48 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            After 58 plus years of coin collecting …….sometimes you get lucky……. 🙂

  10. On March 9, 2017 at 11:29 am,
    spanky says:

    Commodities (GCC) collapsing on the weekly chart. Breaking down after an 8 or 9 month consolidation. Put a fork in the whole complex. Does anyone really see some sort of miracle bounce off of the lower weekly bollinger band? Because I sure as hell am not counting on it.

    To me it looks like 2016 was nothing more than a sucker’s rally to reset sentiment. Another downleg is about to start.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 11:36 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      2016 sure got a lot of people excited…..

    • On March 9, 2017 at 12:28 pm,
      GH says:

      I’m starting to come around to your point of view Spanky. I’d guess it hinges on what oil does.


      WTIC may find support at the 48-49 level, but maybe we’re in for a larger drop into a yearly cycle low. I posted this chart a while back. I don’t expect the level I predicted to be reached, but this is a failed daily cycle breaking out of a big rising wedge, so maybe the next daily cycle will put in a strong decline…I’m not a great cycles analyst, though.

      • On March 9, 2017 at 2:10 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Until 1050 gets taken out in Gold and until GDX and GDXJ take out their Jan 19th lows, then we are still in the beginning throws of a new bear market.

        Cross each bridge as you get to them…..

        • On March 9, 2017 at 2:11 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Ha… I meant we are still in the beginning throws of a new BULL market….

          You get the idea though…

          • On March 9, 2017 at 2:12 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            So many significant prior peaks and troughs were taken out in 2016 (and the rally through this period and through the Summer Doldrums last year) make it seem much more significant than just a suckers rally.

        • On March 9, 2017 at 2:30 pm,
          Paul L says:

          Starting to smell like a bear market though.

          • On March 9, 2017 at 2:39 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Oh – it’s getting stinkier, I’m just not ready to put it in the hamper yet…. Air-drying it….

  11. On March 9, 2017 at 11:37 am,
    spanky says:

    The Dow climbs ever higher vs commodities. It can go a lot higher based on the monthly $indu:$crb chart.

    Basically, if you have been in commodities over the Dow since 2011, you have been absolutely hammered in real terms.

    The Fed loves this. The Dow is barely down, while the commodity complex collapses. No inflation and record stock prices. Input costs collapsing, driving earnings higher.

    Interest rates up, down, QE, no QE–it doesn’t matter. Everything is bullish for stocks. You are being dragged kicking and screaming to go long stocks.

  12. On March 9, 2017 at 11:43 am,
    spanky says:

    Rising rates are good for US stocks and terrible for everything else. With commodities collapsing as rates rise, the argument that there are positive real interest rates is laughable.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 11:43 am,
      spanky says:

      er meant negative real interest rates

  13. On March 9, 2017 at 11:45 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Platinum ratio to gold ……..1.29

    • On March 9, 2017 at 11:52 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Platinum back to where it was last year at this time………

      • On March 9, 2017 at 2:26 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yep. It’s been a round-trip. I made some nice money trading the run up, but have a few positions that are now back underwater on the Platinum miners. I did make a nice piece of coin recently on a jump in share price in Jubilee Platinum.

        My expectations were to have done much better in the PGM group stocks in later 2016 and early 2017, but I’ll admit I called this sector wrongo in the congo…..

        • On March 9, 2017 at 2:28 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          for pgm group miners it really should be wrongo in S. Africa… but that doesn’t have the nice ring to.

          Cobalt is more wrongo in the Congo through…. I’m really interested in sourcing Cobalt from outside the Congo in Canada or the US or Australia, because it really is a conflict commodity and some of those Congo businesses are shady…..

        • On March 9, 2017 at 2:36 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          I still like platinum……

          • On March 10, 2017 at 5:59 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Me too.

  14. On March 9, 2017 at 12:03 pm,
    pardu says:

    Rick, where do you think silver will bottom out this time in the near future according to your technicals?

    • On March 9, 2017 at 1:43 pm,
      Rick says:

      Sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings, Pardu, but I’ve been using a target for May Silver at 15.35, or 15.23 if any lower.

      • On March 9, 2017 at 2:23 pm,
        pardu says:

        Any idea of when these levels will be reached?

      • On March 9, 2017 at 2:29 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Rick …. you’re breaking my heart man…. 🙁

        Thanks for the targets sir.

  15. On March 9, 2017 at 12:31 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I would like to hear Rick’s take on the price of cobalt for the rest of the year. Cobalt has risen more than 50% since the beginning of the year from just under $15 US/lb. now to over $23.
    Given that it is a rare metal and it’s demand for electric cars, 40% of lithium ion batteries are cobalt it should go much higher according to my fundamentals.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 1:47 pm,
      Rick says:

      Not sure what symbol to use, but if you let me know, I can take a look at the chart.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 2:15 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      DT – lots of good comments if you scroll back up through the Cobalt room on ceo.


      • On March 9, 2017 at 8:17 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Thanks Ex, my interest was for myself and for this site. As the world changes so does the demand for a few other metals, it is good to try and see what other commodities are getting attention and why? As a valuable contributor you of course understand this. I’m just interested in what lies ahead, even though cobalt has had a break out, I believe it is still in it’s initial run up. DT

        • On March 10, 2017 at 6:08 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed DT. (by the way…. so does Robert Freidland).


          Billionaire likes our elements for electric cars

          The Australian – February 7, 2017 – MATT CHAMBERS

          “The $900 million Syerston cobalt and nickel project in central west NSW will be in the spotlight at the world’s biggest mining investment conference this week as billionaire mining explorer and promoter Robert Friedland talks up its ­potential to help feed accelerating electric vehicle demand.

          Mr Friedland, the US-born, Canadian founder of Ivanhoe Mines, was the driving force behind the establishment of Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine in Mongolia and was last year appointed co-chairman of Melbourne-based Clean TeQ, which owns Syerston.

          The renowned mining entrepreneur is now making the mine the focus of his famously infectious briefings, telling delegates at the African Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town that Syerston will be the first mine developed to exclusively supply the global lithium-ion battery industry with nickel and cobalt.

          In slides lodged with the Australian stock exchange before the conference, Mr Friedland said lithium-iron batteries were essentially cobalt and nickel batteries, with the two elements making up about 20 per cent of the cost of the batteries — compared with about 4 per cent for lithium. “Syerston is uniquely positioned as one of the largest and highest-grade sources of cobalt outside Africa,” Mr Friedland, who owns 19.35 per cent of Clean TeQ, said in the slides.

          Cobalt prices are up 65 per cent this year and trading at a five-year high of $US37,500 a tonne on the back of their exposure to growth in battery demand…”


          • On March 10, 2017 at 6:09 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Cobalt: will 2017 be a year of change?
            Roskill | 7 days ago

            “After several years of an oversupplied market and weak cobalt prices, many market commentators are expecting 2017 to be a big year for cobalt. The hype is understandable. Prices have risen sharply this year, with Metal Bulletin’s High Grade Free Market price increasing from US$15/lb at the start of the year to over US$24/lb in March. But why?

            On the demand side, the answer is clear. Strong demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries is set to continue. In addition, cobalt demand is forecast to grow strongly in other key end-use applications such as high performance alloys, tool materials, and catalysts.

            On the supply side, many point to the high concentration of cobalt by-production in the DRC as a cause for concern. But while the political situation and infrastructure challenges in the DRC have the potential to impact the market, DRC concentrate supply is growing rapidly as output expands. This should see enough feedstock for cobalt intermediates, refined metal, and refined chemical production reach the market.

            While many point to the surging demand for cobalt on one hand and supply risk issues on the other, Roskill expects refined chemical production to able to meet demand over the coming years, and the battery industry should therefore be well supplied.

            There are, however, some supply-side constraints which may be impacting the price. Importantly, a number of suspensions, most notably Katanga Mining in the DRC, have contributed to a tight metal market. This, coupled with strategic stockpiling, may be artificially inflating the cobalt price. The Financial Times reported last week that half a dozen funds have purchased and stored an estimated 6,000 tonnes of cobalt, worth as much as US$280M. As detailed in Roskill’s upcoming Cobalt Report, there has already been material taken out of the market in recent years. China State Reserve Bureau (SRB) has moved to purchase considerable quantities of cobalt since 2014.”


          • On March 10, 2017 at 6:11 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The Critical Ingredients Needed to Fuel the Battery Boom
            JEFF DESJARDINS on October 26, 2016

            “Lithium isn’t the only metal that goes into the cathode – other metals like cobalt, manganese, aluminum, and nickel are also used in different formulations. Here’s four cathode chemistries, the metal proportions (excluding lithium), and an example of what they are used for….”


          • On March 10, 2017 at 6:12 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Glencore Is on to a Winner With This Obscure Metal
            by Mark Burton – March 7, 2017

            “Cobalt is having a moment in the spotlight. Historically a minor byproduct of copper and nickel mining, the metal is a key ingredient for lithium-ion batteries and now a growing money maker for Glencore Plc.

            In the past eight months, prices more than doubled on speculation that supply won’t keep up with demand for batteries in electric cars. Glencore, the largest cobalt producer, plans to about double output by 2018, and only coal, copper and zinc offer more of an earnings boost when prices rise.

            Cobalt, which has been in oversupply for years, was often treated as an afterthought at the copper and nickel mines where it’s found. Now, demand for the once obscure metal that’s mined largely in the Democratic Republic of Congo is soaring as it graduates from mobiles to larger batteries in electric vehicles and homes.”


          • On March 10, 2017 at 6:14 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Why Cobalt (Not Lithium) Could Be The Battery Boom’s Big Commodity Winner

            By Sam Broom – Sprott’s Thoughts

            “You’ve probably given little thought to a perennially overlooked metal called cobalt, even though chances are you’re reading this very article on a device powered by a battery containing a significant proportion of the metal.

            Figure 1: Pure (99.9 %) cobalt chips, electrolytically refined. Source: Wikipedia image commons

            I’m going to spend most of this article outlining an emerging narrative that argues that we could be in the early stages of a significant revaluation in the cobalt space. But before I do, I want you to cast your mind back a couple of years to a time before the recent speculative mania that overtook a previously obscure commodity called lithium.”

            “The Lithium Boom – A Case Study For What Could Be Ahead For Cobalt:”

            “Before joining Sprott, I worked as an engineering geologist in Australia, and back in 2014 I was involved on a project for a struggling hard rock lithium miner. Among a host of issues, the mine was struggling with low prices of the resources with which it produced, primarily lithium. Even though the “battery revolution” was well underway and other battery related commodities, namely graphite, had been booming, lithium prices remained stubbornly low.

            That all changed toward the end of 2015 as fears about a looming supply shortage caused the price of lithium to embark on the rather dramatic rise that we’ve seen over the past 18 months. To cut a long story short, the result has been a significant re-rate across the industry as the bulk of lithium exposed miners and explorers experienced sometimes staggering share price appreciations – the chart below showing the greater than 2,000% rise of ASX listed lithium miner Galaxy Resources being one of the more spectacular examples….”


          • On March 10, 2017 at 6:17 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Rick Rule was talking about Cobalt over a year ago as was Friedland. (which is probably why RR was in the first place…. 🙂 )


            Rick Rule: Cobalt Bubble Coming; Kaminak & the Yukon; Streaming & Royalties
            Tuesday May 24, 2016


          • On March 10, 2017 at 6:19 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Mining Companies Have Dug Themselves Out Of A Hole
            Mar 11th 2017 – The richest seam

            “Electric vehicles and batteries are expected to create huge demand for Copper and Cobalt”

            “Yet Glencore could still acquire a halo for itself. It is one of the world’s biggest suppliers of copper and the biggest of cobalt, much of which comes from its investment in the DRC. These are vital ingredients for clean-tech products and industries, notably electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries.

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            The potential of “green” metals and minerals, which along with copper and cobalt include nickel, lithium and graphite, is adding to renewed excitement about investing in mining firms as they emerge from the wreckage of a $1trn splurge of over-investment during the China-led commodities supercycle, which began in the early 2000s. The most bullish argue that clean energy could be an even bigger source of demand than China has been in the past 15 years or so….”


          • On March 10, 2017 at 6:23 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Whoops. Sorry about all that garbage in the middle that got picked up. I didn’t see that in the 4 line chat window before posting.

            Anyway….. I’m out of steam on Cobalt for this morning the point was we’ve been talking about it on here for some time and were ahead of the curve once again. Of course, most investors are still on the sidelines and skeptical, and like normal will miss most of the move and jump in when it becomes a true speculative bubble. Some things never change…..

  16. On March 9, 2017 at 12:34 pm,
    Paul L says:

    This market is looking strong and getting primed for another rally after the jobs report.. I am staying away from gold and oil. Oil could get to $45 easily. It is likely to get hit hard again next Wednesday after inventories. I bought back my big At&t position on the dip and it is doing well now.

  17. On March 9, 2017 at 1:04 pm,
    spanky says:

    There is a nice head and shoulders top on ISVLF and EXK. EXK’s has already triggered.

    • On March 9, 2017 at 2:16 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed on EXK. That is why I started buying yesterday, at that pattern has already mostly finished playing out and Endeavour Silver is due for a relief rally.

  18. On March 9, 2017 at 1:26 pm,
    Paul L says:

    1187 gold coming soon.

  19. On March 9, 2017 at 1:47 pm,
    Jason says:

    Scalping 1 to 3% net this week on 3x miners. Mega range bound.

    I chased DUST into after hours trading like a dog chasing a car and when I caught it now I don’t know what to do with it. lol

    • On March 9, 2017 at 2:30 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      You run it until the wheels fall off, then hit the escape hatch….

    • On March 9, 2017 at 2:31 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Did you see the Paladin news I posted yesterday ETF ninja?

  20. On March 9, 2017 at 4:36 pm,
    David says:

    I finally figured out Cory’s approach to technical analysis regarding price – just turn the chart upside down – works every time!