Rick Ackerman’s Technical Forecasts – Tue 14 Mar, 2017

Will optimism be strong enough alone to support these markets?

Today with Rick Ackerman we chat about the discrepancy between soft data and hard data for US economy and markets. Soft data, such as optimism, continues to be strong but the underlying hard economic data, such as actual production and growth numbers, are lagging behind. This has been the case ever since the election but how long can this last? Everyone is looking for actual tax reform to change this dynamic but Rick has his doubts this will ever get done.

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Featuring:
Rick AckermanCory Fleck
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Comments:
  1. On March 14, 2017 at 8:45 am,
    CFS says:

    The US Bond opened just above 2.62% this morning, Cory. (Now at 2.601

  2. On March 14, 2017 at 8:45 am,
    CFS says:

    10-year

  3. On March 14, 2017 at 9:01 am,
    CFS says:

    Yesterday’s trading Day

    https://youtu.be/58C3Mo1n5Nc

  4. On March 14, 2017 at 9:09 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Boring. Well said. Better to spend one’s time filling out his brackets for some real fun in coming weeks.

  5. On March 14, 2017 at 9:15 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Tax reform……….never…..should be 1% for war funding and defense….

  6. On March 14, 2017 at 9:20 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Tulip bulbs anyone……………

  7. On March 14, 2017 at 10:02 am,
    b says:

    https://youtu.be/10GQDlme6vY

    Silver eagles sales crash.
    The big buyer was jpm and they have stopped buying.(accumulated largest hoard in history)
    This means to me,the average person, really doesnt give a darn about silver.

    Doldrums are coming, rate hikes.
    Maybe jpm simply hoarded the silver in preparation for the big price rise.
    Maybe they start buying again after the rate hike,during the doldrums.

  8. On March 14, 2017 at 10:26 am,
    spanky says:

    They are going to slam gold and silver in the next week or so. The miners are acting so weak–particularly the silver miners. A lot of the silver miners I watch are about to give up their 100 WMAs. When they do, there is nothing but air below.

  9. On March 14, 2017 at 10:39 am,
    b says:

    could b, I have no idea.

    If I understand correctly Bob M might disagree with the manipulation story.

    Personally Ive thought silver has been manipulated since lbj said it was in 1964? 65?

    I found once I had all I wanted it makes no difference one way or the other.

    Share prices on the other hand, can get interesting every once in awhile.
    Im guessing next time they do might be after the doldrums.

    Who knows tho? maybe this time is different and the bloggers are right, its thru the roof any minute now.

    • On March 15, 2017 at 7:51 am,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      B:

      If silver went from $1.29 in 1964 to $50 in 1980 and from $4 in 2001 to $49+++ in April of 2011, was it manipulated up or down?

      • On March 15, 2017 at 10:23 am,
        Matthew says:

        Bob, that’s really not enough info to make that determination. As you know, a suppressed rifle still goes boom, it’s just a quieter boom than without the suppressor. A suppressed market is no different.

        I believe that manipulation in both directions happens all the time. The silver blow-off of 2011 and the subsequent grind to $13.62 almost certainly were helped along. The 2011 spike might have been taken to an unnatural overbought high in order to buy time for the conventional stock markets, the bond market and the dollar while simultaneously setting the stage for a fantastic cyclical bull market in the gold/silver space (the worse the bear, the better the ensuing bull).

        Without such mini manic advances in the metals in 2011, the following bear would likely have been much shorter and shallower. Therefore, if the spikes in gold and silver were the result of manipulation, then that manipulation was also a (future) downside manipulation.

        The biggest money is generally the smartest money and it knows that mother nature can’t be stopped. Therefore, it also knows that what it can’t stop, it should adopt – in this case, a huge bull market in gold and silver.

        I won’t go into all the reasons here, but I believe that the big money is, contrary to very popular opinion, made of the biggest gold bulls of all. This market looks like it has been managed and cultivated from the start (15 years ago) to be the longest, strongest, healthiest bull market it can be. Of course, only those who understand markets (contrarians) might know what I’m talking about.

        Whatever the facts are, manipulations provide opportunity.

        • On March 15, 2017 at 10:49 am,
          Matthew says:

          Here are some interesting observations that, admittedly, prove nothing…

          The M1 money stock is up 22 fold since January 1964. If gold had only matched that gain, it would be $770 today. If the Dow had matched that gain, it would be 16,850 today and if silver had matched that gain, it would be $28.38 today.

          Had the Dow and silver kept up with gold, they would be 26,304 and $44.29, respectively, right now.

  10. On March 14, 2017 at 10:41 am,
    Chartster says:

    Very observant, Spanky. ( true story )

  11. On March 14, 2017 at 10:41 am,
    spanky says:

    GCC (commodities) are headed into the toilet. Commodities are lower now than 35+ years ago! Let that sink in a little. Not a single shred of real inflation is reflected anywhere in that complex. It’s just the opposite.

  12. On March 14, 2017 at 11:00 am,
    spanky says:

    Newmont is headed to $28 for sure.

  13. On March 14, 2017 at 11:12 am,
    spanky says:

    As soon as USDJPY breaks 118, it’s all over. basically you will have a huge cup and handle on the weekly chart that will be breaking out at that point. I still maintain that 2016 looks like nothing more than a relief rally to reset sentiment and get the long term MACD back to neutral for the next leg up.

    The miners are hanging on by their nails, and I don’t think they are going to make it. I am still holding onto my miners against my better judgment, but I will not hold onto them much longer. I simply can’t risk it.

    Anyone saying the Fed hasn’t won needs to look at the scoreboard.

  14. On March 14, 2017 at 11:32 am,
    spanky says:

    outside day down in GDXJ. Bullish!

    • On March 14, 2017 at 11:47 am,
      Matthew says:

      Your fear is over the top, Spanky. GDXJ gained 10% in the last two and did so on three times the volume that you’re seeing today. pullbacks are normal and with the Fed announcement tomorrow, it’s no wonder that today’s pullback is more than the bulls might have expected.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p14041064166&a=511804740

      • On March 14, 2017 at 11:48 am,
        Matthew says:

        P.s. – I am not trying to stop you from selling.

        • On March 14, 2017 at 11:58 am,
          spanky says:

          I hear ya, and I appreciate your bullishness, but IMO to be long miners right now is an incredible contrarian position to take, and contrarians have been crushed for 7 years now. Yes if you traded in and out you could make money on countertrend moves but by in large just going long the Nasdaq would have crushed a basket of miners.

          Is it too much to ask for a simple trending market? So much chart damage has already been done (the 20 WMA crossing well below an uptrending 50 WMA for starters). Even if the LT bullish scenario is accurate. The miners are in for a slog this year based on their monthly Bollinger bands (too much distance between price and the BBs–price is going to have to consolidate for a long time). And the fact that I am in high volatility silver miners is not helping one bit. EXK has already made a new low and AG is not too far behind.

  15. On March 14, 2017 at 12:02 pm,
    spanky says:

    There we go, gold finally breaking down. It was nice knowing ya.

    • On March 14, 2017 at 12:15 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I’m glad gold is finally below 1200 during normal hours (the recent breach in the middle of the night foreshadowed this action). Dips below big round numbers are good at ridding the market of weak hands.

      • On March 14, 2017 at 1:31 pm,
        spanky says:

        It will likely bounce very soon and form a head and shoulders top. What else is new. $silver is pretty much ready for its right shoulder.

        • On March 14, 2017 at 2:27 pm,
          b says:

          Great time to buy tho spanky. always is, no matter whats happening in price.

          • On March 14, 2017 at 3:11 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Really? You like to buy strength and tops, too? MOST people do. lol

  16. On March 14, 2017 at 12:17 pm,
    Pete says:
  17. On March 14, 2017 at 3:17 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I made the following chart on the 2nd. SLV still hasn’t reached the level that I thought it would (red arrow). I’m sure it will tomorrow, easily.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=13&id=p10405255254&a=510232860