Recapping the VIX, Treasuries, and Gold
Technically levels were broken in the VIX, treasuries, and gold today. Doc and I recap the moves we saw and look forward to the next resistance levels that these markets will encounter.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Ditto
Must have been my comments on the tonnage for the tomahawk… lol
OOTB – I agree that you posts may be changing reality as we know it.
Just look at this announcement from Seeking Alpha’s CEO today after he read your posts.
______________________________________________________________________
Seeking Alpha Applauds The SEC’s Actions To Stomp Out Stock Promotion
Apr. 11, 2017 – SA Eli Hoffmann – Seeking Alpha’s CEO, Editor-in-Chief
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4061813-seeking-alpha-applauds-secs-actions-stomp-stock-promotion
Ha,ha…….good one……..Eli must have read my other comments concerning the banking issue and insiders at Trump……on the “A” jews in banking (just kidding)………..OOTB
OOTB – YOU SIR are changing the world, one post at a time….. 😉
🙂
Doc, did you change your mind on silver, in yesterdays market wrap you seemed pretty convinced the metals were going down?
Nope, I believe this is just a momentum trade based on short term geopolitical events—I believe Syria will quiet down unless the anti-Syrians do more gas attacks to try to draw the U.S. to respond again. The bigger geopolitical issue is North Korea in my view. If something happens there then watch out. If things quiet I believe the odds are still for a move down this spring and summer.
Gotcha, thanks!
Doc – a very astute comment, geopolitically-speaking. Seems sound to me.
If one is truly using technical analysis then all news (including geo political) is noise and you just go by the numbers. As mentioned at the bottom of the blog, there were a few that noted in mid March that Gold was due for a bounce (before we had any of this geopolitical garble-de-gook). That is exactly what has played out.
What is even more bizarre, is how many technical traders on multiple websites (that supposedly block out the news and only look at the charts) just wanted to see Gold over $1260-$1265 to get bullish, and now that it has….. Crickets….
**** Gold is now at $1275
I’m just curious at what point these “experts” are going to get bullish, now that they’ve missed the entire move up from $1194.50 to $1275. (???)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p74774936434
This was posted down at the bottom as well, but it deserves a second post, because even if one ignores all technicals, the sentiment for the 2 weeks before the PDAC and the week or two afterwards was terrible. We had so many asking about just selling everything and preparing for Gold in the mid $1100’s…… That’s what we call terrible “Sentiment,” and it almost always marks intermediate bottoms.
__________________________________________________________________________
Gold is Tapping Around Looking for a Tradable Bottom
Bob Moriarty – Mar 10, 2017
“Commodities like to change course at full moons or accelerate in the direction they are going. It would be irrational to believe gold will continue down and accelerate further after nine days in a row of lower prices.”
“Everybody back in the pool.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty031017.html
*** Bob M. was right, sentiment was quite bearish all through early March, and once again, he nailed a tradable bounce (which most people completely ignored).
Aside from the pop (and drop) last Friday, I believe that the action we’re seeing in gold was going to happen anyway. The weekly chart was already bullish and getting better by the the time the missiles were sent. At the same time, the conventional stock markets were already behaving bearishly.
The senior miners and even the loonie have already confirmed gold’s action but now we need silver and the juniors to do so — and I believe they will very soon.
GDXJ daily (look at those Bollinger bands):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p00652189967
Agreed Matthew, and you’ve been spot on with your charts.
The whole point of Technical Analysis is that it is systematic and ignores the news. The rise in Gold was already projected (regardless of Syria, or Russia, or whatever….).
What is cracking me up and the point of my rants up above and down below, was that there were so many technicians on multiple blogs (like ceo.ca, goldtent, Kitco, and here on the KER) that wanted to see $1200 hold, or see if Gold could break $1240, or if Gold could break $1255, then $1260, then $1265…..
Now that Gold has smashed through all those levels, many of these technicians (blind to the news noise) are saying…. well, it just’s because of geo-political news.
If that is true, then the news matters, and not their technical analysis…… Or, what is more likely is they are letting the news cloud their technical analysis.
I appreciate the fact that you have stayed objective with your charts and made a great call sir. Congrats!
Thanks Ex, I couldn’t agree more.
Will GDX blast through the current fork resistance or fill yesterday’s gap first?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p19750309684&a=517922062
Copper insitu mining and an amazing name. What more can you ask for?
How about a proper market cap based on the NPV?😉
Touche’
Even more from excelsior…bnn clip,from today
http://www.bnn.ca/video/excelsior-mining-advances-copper-project-in-arizona~1098450
Northern Dynasty: State of Alaska approves Pebble Project land use permit
VANCOUVER, April 11, 2017 /PRNewswire/ – Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX: NDM; NYSE MKT: NAK) (“Northern Dynasty” or the “Company”) announces that its 100%-owned US subsidiary Pebble Limited Partnership (“Pebble Partnership”) has received notice of approval of a Miscellaneous Land Use Permit (“MLUP”) from the Alaska Department of Natural Resources (“DNR”) for its ongoing activities at the Pebble Project in southwest Alaska.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/northern-dynasty-state-alaska-approves-221400858.html
Epstein Metals end of day TA:
https://youtu.be/UlnJrHPxnNI?t=32
Avino Announces Updated PEA for ‘Oxide Tailings’: Base Case Pre-Tax NPV (8%) of US$40.5 million and 48.4% IRR
April 11, 2017 /CNW/ – Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM)
Endeavour Silver Produces 1.08 Moz Silver and 11,724 oz Gold in the Q1 2017
April 11, 2017 –
“Endeavour Silver Corp. (TSX: EDR, NYSE: EXK) reports its production results for the First Quarter, 2017 from the Company’s three silver-gold mines in Mexico: the Guanaceví mine in Durango State and the Bolañitos and El Cubo mines in Guanajuato State. Silver production in the First Quarter, 2017 was 1,076, 974 ounces (oz) and gold production was 11,724 oz resulting in silver equivalent production of 1.9 million oz using a 70:1 silver gold ratio”
Great Panther Silver Reports First Quarter 2017 Production Results
April 11, 2017 /CNW/ – GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED (TSX: GPR; NYSE MKT: GPL)
Golden Arrow Chairman’s Message to Shareholders on Recent Positive Developments
(Marketwired – April 10, 2017) – Golden Arrow Resources Corporation (GRG)(GARWF)
“The announcement on the 31st of March of the formation of the Joint Venture with Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSO)(SSRI) was the culmination of a process of working together that began with the announcement of the initial exploratory work back in October 2015. Essentially the latest announcement signals the creation of a new entity which will pool together the currently operating mine and processing plant at Pirquitas, owned by Silver Standard, with the Chinchillas project of Golden Arrow.”
Ex:
I read this report about GP earlier today and noticed that it was actually going nowhere while other PM stocks were climbing. Actually, it amounts to saving all the silver from the 1st. quarter and then milling it at higher prices. I thought that was a good thing. Bought 2500 shares today at 1.61. What do you think?
Silverdollar – It seems like a good strategy for them to have the stockpiled ore milled at higher prices. I don’t have a position in Great Panther at present but do follow them closely and felt it was worth posting their First quarter results, and strategy moving forward.
Personally, I’m stocked up on a number of different resources sectors from Gold to Uranium, but Silver and the Silver miners has always been my favorite area to speculate in. At present I hold 14 Silver miners, which is plenty, but Great Panther is one of the few I’m still considering adding to the fold. It still has a long way to run as this PM market unfolds over the next few years, and is a solid mid-tier producer, and I agree it hasn’t had as dramatic of a move as other PM miners.
From a macro perspective, I’ve been waiting to see if we get an April rally before the “sell in May and go away” crowd gets busy moving into the summer doldrums. My strategy is trim back some of the miers in late April if we do get a nice run here over the next 2 weeks. If we don’t get the rally then I’ll hold tight through any corrective pain, and deploy any remaining dry powder throughout the summer.
Moving into late July to early August 2017, I intend to be fully deployed in my Gold & Silver positions for the balance of the bull market for 2018 and beyond.
Cheers!
I think silverdollar is spot on……..at $4 cost for silver (if I read correctly)…..looks like a winner……not investment advice….and I do not write for seeking alpha… 🙂
🙂
Here’s a review of Silver Panther that was on Seeking Alpha (be warned 🙂 )
______________________________________________________________________
Great Panther Silver: Expect A Poor Q1 Earnings – And A Buying Opportunity
Apr. 12, 2017 –
* Summary
Great Panther Silver’s silver production fell by 32% in Q1 due to a planned suspension at one of its processing plants.
The company is maintaining its 2017 production guidance of 4.0 – 4.1 million silver equivalent ounces, with AISC between $14-$16 per ounce.
While the company continues to mine ore at Topia, AISC will be higher than expected in Q1.
However, this is temporary. I think a poor earnings report and share price weakness could present investors with a buying opportunity….”
I THINK the GUY at seeking alpha…..just copied the thoughts of the KER forks,
NOTE, silverdollar remarked yesterday,…..The guy at seeking alpha is reported TODAY……..
🙂 🙂 :)…………………………JMHO……………….OOTB
forks…..to FOLKs
this dang computer has a mind from the CIA….. 🙂 …. does Eli work for the CIA
Yes, they are always watching OOTB…. Eli is watching…….
Good call to Silverdollar he speaks, and Seeking Alpha reports….
The KER is simply ahead of it’s time……. on the leading edge of reality….. 😮
good one……. 🙂
I did say months ago….I like GP……… 🙂
Doc, do you think that if geopolitical tensions escalate and spillover into a multi conflict event and the pms shoot higher on uneasy times, could that negate any significant downturn in the pms you have previously mentioned for later in they year?
Gwen Preston: Gold Shines Right Through Mixed Messages
Beneath The Surface – Apr 10, 2017
I was looking for a move over $1264 in gold to be bullish (bottom 2 charts in link below). I am almost surprised tha it has happened:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/1145-gold-target-still-in-play-despite.html
Silverbug – You raise an interesting point.
1) In that article you posted, it has a more bearish tone (concerned about a move down to 1145 in Gold), but their upside resistance target was as follows:
“I also noticed potentially important resistance at $1263-1264 from recent price action and also from mid-2016 and suggested on GoldTAdise.com that there might be a decisive move sometime when the lines intersected in the chart below…”
** Well definitively taken out $1263-$1264
________________________________________________________________________
2) Peter Hug & Morris Hubbart wanted to see a close above $1265, which was a major resistance zone……
** Again, we are at $1273.70 for the second day in a row and clearly closed above that resistance yesterday.
_________________________________________________________________________
3) I saw a number of other commentators over the last few weeks when Gold was channeling between $1240-$1260 that said they need a close above $1260-$1265 to get bullish.
*** Well……. Gold passed that level, and everyone still remains bearish as the PMs climb a wall of worry. Everyone that said they’d get bullish, didn’t, and much of that is because Gold rose on Geo-political news.
What is funny, confusing, and odd is that these technicians were all supposedly simply analyzing numbers dispassionately (regardless of the news, which they claim to tune out), but now that Gold has taken out their Resistance levels, they are blaming the news….. (huh????)
______________________________________________________________________
Another thing is that Silver has been absolutely rocking. For the last 2 months, all I’ve been reading is that Silver was looking wobbly, and was going to pull back down to $17 or likely below it into the mid $16’s.
** Silver has started the 2nd Quarter so much stronger than the 1st Quarter, and is currently at $18.32, and yet the sentiment in the PM sector, and even the Silver Miners is quite depressing and muted at best.
I don’t get it???
___________________________________________________________________
A few more thoughts posted from early March:
> On March 8, 2017 at 9:27 am,
Excelsior says:
Spanky – your sentiment indicator has me buying more miners. (I kid) 🙂
> On March 8, 2017 at 11:27 am,
Excelsior says:
It will be interesting to see if the miners bounce next week as selling is likely getting exhausted. #ReverseTheCurse
> On March 8, 2017 at 11:22 am,
Excelsior says:
It has been a ugly week. but those lead to boring tug-o-war weeks between the bears and bulls, and then ultimately to attractive weeks.
> On March 8, 2017 at 4:32 pm,
Excelsior says:
I’m starting to deploy dry powder like a pirate under siege. (and will continue to do so)
> On March 9, 2017 at 8:58 pm,
Excelsior says:
Personally I’ve been very active the last 2 weeks buying new mining stocks and adding to existing positions, and have deployed a good bit of dry powder into this weakness. Sentiment has really been getting ugly on the 3 main blogs I frequent, and in many of the articles and editorials on various sights.
I’ll admit I could be wrong, crazy, or making trades that will sting later, but I like averaged down into corrections personally. There are many stocks I liked at much higher prices, and now that they are down 50-70% they look much more attractive to me. Just my 2 cents.
> On March 10, 2017 at 8:20 am,
Excelsior says:
Here’s a slight update to that GDX Chart:
Look at the Slow Stochastics and Commodity Channel Index. It looks like a good place for turn to me. We also have a “Doji” candle in place often marking a change in direction:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=22&id=p49420127256
It should be noted that Matthew posted chart after chart in around this time in early March that the metals and miners looked ready for a least a small rally and he was dead on.
Lastly, the biggest hat tip that should be doled out is for Bob M.
Back on March 10th, Bob M put out an article that both I and Matthew, and number of technicians on ceo.ca agreed with, where he mentioned it was time for everyone to “Get back into the pool.”
Gold is Tapping Around Looking for a Tradable Bottom
Bob Moriarty – Mar 10, 2017
“Commodities like to change course at full moons or accelerate in the direction they are going. It would be irrational to believe gold will continue down and accelerate further after nine days in a row of lower prices.”
“Everybody back in the pool.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty031017.html
*** Bob M. was right, sentiment was quite bearish all through early March, and once again, he nailed a tradeable bounce (which most people completely ignored).
This was the 30 Year Gold Seasonality Chart I posted on the KER on the 10th:
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2013/08/GOLD-seasonal.png
What is fascinating, is that almost everyone was on the same side of the boat (the wrong side) back in early to mid March, and expected Gold to go down to $1200 or many were looking for the mid $1100’s (like the $1145 targets mentioned in that article Silverbug posted above).
Investor sentiment was terrible in March as the pullback had started 2 weeks before PDAC (as Gwen Preston had mentioned was normal for the “curse” to come early when Gold is in a BULL market) and continued for a week or two after that event.
Those are the conditions where a new base can consolidate for the next leg higher, but everyone was looking down down down. Gary Savage put out a blog on the 8th or 9th expecting two months of a pullback in Gold prices. At that time we had daily comments on the blog from posters asking if they should just sell everything (at exactly the wrong time). Then, of course, we had a few lovable posters here on the KER commenting that the Metals were done…. cya at the bottom…… (lol)
Whoops! If only they had listened to Bob M. and gotten back in the pool 🙂
What is even more bizarre, is how many technical traders (that block out the news) just wanted to see Gold over $1260-$1265 to get bullish, and now that it has….. Crickets….
**** Gold is now at $1275
I’m just curious at what point these “experts” are going to get bullish, now that they’ve missed the entire move up from $1194.50 to $1275. (???)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p74774936434
THE FED is just jacking with everyone…………
Long term…….gold going UP……period……………..
It makes sense to me that longer term gold is going up…. but it will be a gradual build that will continue to frustrate bulls and bears alike.
I would agree with that……
Another huge, ugly black reversal candle in GCC today. Commodities are being unloaded/shorted like mad. Distribution before the plummet.
I joined you in your skepticism a week or two ago Spanky, but GCC has held the $19 level, and is looking up to my eye.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63768796529&a=494657532
I see a hammer, a doji, and now a nice big inverted hammer. Looks like a bottoming formation to me.
The 50, 100 and 200 day EMAs for SLV by far look the best compared to GLD and GDX. In fact, you don’t typically see SLV’s EMAs lined up like this except in bull markets.
Too bad the silver miners aren’t looking even close to as positive.
The SLV 50 week EMA has not been able to cross above the 100 week EMA since the 2015 low. Every time it has gotten close, it gets slammed down. Well it is getting close again. Silver needs a powerful rally here to put the bull/bear debate to rest once and for all.
GLD is now overbought based on the daily RSI(14) but it could (not “will”) easily stay that way for awhile.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96582345704
Let’s see if SLV can match GLD by taking out 17.85:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91681876147
Better yet, let’s see if SLV can get the upper hand over GLD.
SLV priced in GLD:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08525058299
The daily bollinger band width (18,2) for GDXJ is as narrow as it has been over the last 5 years. There is a big, big trending move coming in the next 2 months at the outside.
And most likely much sooner.
usawatchdog…………Greg Mannorino out with his report on the FED…..and WAR
Ties into Andy Hoffman’s comment on Trump and WAR…….
A better than average day for PM-bugs!