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Economic or Credit Cycle… Are we at the End of one?

Cory
April 20, 2017

On a weekly basis we are inundated with economic data that show week or week or year over year change. While this information is useful it plays into a bigger and one could argue more important narrative, where do we stand in the economic cycle. As Chris Temple brings up in today’s interview we also have a credit cycle to worry about since the recent recovery has been almost entirely driven by cheap money and Fed policy.

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Discussion
58 Comments
    Apr 20, 2017 20:10 AM

    Dang…..silver under $18………

      Apr 20, 2017 20:37 AM

      silver/gold ratio…………71

      Apr 20, 2017 20:11 AM

      No worries, Jerry, it just tested the 50 day moving average (currently 17.89).

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p33884849576&a=518453127

        Apr 20, 2017 20:15 AM

        With silver down and the silver miners up today, we have a positive divergence for a change.

          Apr 20, 2017 20:30 AM

          Silvercrest metals looks interesting. Its down about 60% since the high last year. It could be a good buy but the bad thing is it broke down yesterday and maybe its going down to fill the gap to 1.40 ish cad. Im really like the company.

          https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W-rjlaqY-Aw

            Apr 20, 2017 20:55 AM

            Blue, I don’t follow that one but I don’t think it’s going to fill the next gap anytime soon.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p07851134793&a=519142317

            Apr 20, 2017 20:14 PM

            I think its bottoming right now like the rest of the silverminers. Its a slow and boring process but its good for the future. Im buying in this really nice company today๐Ÿ˜€

            Apr 20, 2017 20:17 PM

            Blue – I follow Silvercrest, but don’t own it (used to), but think their exploration program in 2017 may breathe a little fresh air into their valuation. As you mentioned many Silver stocks have been pulling back in the recent weeks, so right now the action is par for the course.

            There are a number Silver companies looking quite attractive to me, as well as many of the small gold producers and developers. Been nibbling at a few into this recent weakness.

            Cheers!

            Apr 20, 2017 20:35 PM

            Yes youre doing the right thing, nibbling. Dolly Varden is on my radar a nice exploration play but I think its not gonna move until their drillprogram starts i june I think. Nibbling๐Ÿ‘

            Apr 20, 2017 20:49 PM

            Yep. Been nibbling at Dolly Varden for sure. Summer drilling isn’t that far away….

            Neither is Summer Lovin’ …

            Apr 20, 2017 20:57 PM

            Another interesting juniorminer is Anfield Gold ANF. Its under the radar but it is soon going to show the teeth. Its a good buy right here 0,86-0,90 cad. Down from 1.9 cad last year. Ross Beaty Legendary leadership. Im buying right here. Nibbling is wonderful

            Apr 20, 2017 20:19 PM

            Yes, I’ve looked at Anfield Gold, as a Ross Beaty play, as well as Orca Gold.

            Right now my only Ross Beaty play is Alterra Power.

            Apr 20, 2017 20:22 PM

            Ross Beaty also owns 17.4% of Savary Gold which has my interest in West Africa, and they are in JVs with another Explorer in that area that I do own Sarama Resources.

            They are right by Roxgold, Seamfo, Endeavour Mining, and Teranga on that South Hounde belt. Savary and Sarama are going to get gobbled up by one of those companies.

            Apr 20, 2017 20:30 PM

            Ross is the strong but silent type of investor. Good luck investing, Ex!
            And thanks Matthew for the Silvercrest chart, very helpful!

            Apr 20, 2017 20:33 PM

            Blue – Yes, Ross walks softly but carries a big stick….

            Good luck to you in your investing as well.

            Apr 20, 2017 20:34 PM

            I started buying Anfield when Rick Rule mentioned it. He appeared on BNN and a caller asked what’s the catalyst for the stock going forward? Rick replied, “The catalyst is Ross Beaty.” ๐Ÿ™‚

            Apr 20, 2017 20:24 PM

            Thanks Scott. Yes, that sounds just like something RR would say. (lol). ๐Ÿ™‚

            I’ll have to take a closer look at Anfield Gold, but last time I looked in Ross Beaty-land I I was more interested in Orca Gold and Savary Gold.

        Apr 20, 2017 20:23 AM

        Matthew………thanks for the info………..J

          Apr 20, 2017 20:19 PM

          Ditto. Good Silver and Silvercrest charts Matthew. Much appreciated.

    CFS
    Apr 20, 2017 20:16 AM

    But look at Pt, Pd!

    CFS
    Apr 20, 2017 20:29 AM

    https://youtu.be/WXRORZ0UK-s?t=33

    Epstein morning TA.

    Apr 20, 2017 20:32 AM

    Do you guys realize the foundation Trump has constructed with all of the major industry in the US? The banking guidelines are about to become more favorable for small business. They are about to reinstate Glass Steagall. They have the votes right now to repeal O care. Then the tax cut will be done.

    The credit cycle ended months ago. That’s why you see the massive deficit in pension paper. Doc made a statement yesterday on the market wrap that was spot on. He said, they” can’t let the markets drop until some type of stimulus happens”. When the infrastructure starts, they” will let the markets go. The pension funds that need it, will start getting rehydrated. The Donald understands it, a bit better than you might think
    ( obviously )

    Apr 20, 2017 20:41 AM

    A repeat warning about a crash. When the market crashed in 1987 my stops where worthless. I was stopped out at the bottom of any individual stock’s price. I owned Medtronics, Applied Materials, Federal Express, … It didn’t matter whether the company was a “good” company or a bad company.

      GH
      Apr 20, 2017 20:30 AM

      A very good point.

      Apr 20, 2017 20:36 PM

      We’ve just left a 5 year PM and commodities bear market. I’m used to dealing with those conditions, where the good are discarded with the bad, on a weekly basis. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        Apr 20, 2017 20:48 PM

        Many of them are smaller Jrs under $3 where you can’t use stops anyway. It’s not uncommon to have many names up/down 5% 8% 10% 15% 20% 30% in one day with no brakes.

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        Apr 20, 2017 20:39 PM

        Hope ya right Excelsior. Considering it was a bear market, time still went reasonably quick in that period. I still maintain that the level of excitement in PMs should be kept in check until gold and silver near or clear the $1500 and $26 level. I dont think those prices are coming this year but a gradual climb could be quite beneficial for the metals. We shall see I spose.

          Apr 20, 2017 20:21 PM

          Agreed Ozibatla. Don’t get me wrong, my level of excitement hasn’t been much the last few weeks. I’m generally optimistic that later this year (Aug/Sept/Oct) that Gold may have a chance at rising to take out $1377.50 (the high from 2016). I’d be encouraged if that happened and we had a “higher high” for 2017, even if only marginally (maybe up in the $1420 region). As for Silver, I’d like to see it get above $20 again for many of the miners I hold, and ideally above last year’s high of $21.23.

          One step at a time…..

            Apr 20, 2017 20:30 PM

            For Silver the next overhead resistance based on prior peaks/troughs are:

            $19.00 – peak
            $19.27 – trough
            $20.24 – peak
            $20.83 – peak
            $21.23 – peak

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83731985530

            Apr 20, 2017 20:34 PM

            For clarity, I started at $19, but there are the recent 2 peaks at $18.54 and $18.66 that will act as resistance first, but assuming we take out the recent highs on an impulse leg then the real resistance starts at $19 and works it way up to the bigger resistance at $21.23.

            For people that don’t like technical data points, then just get excited if we get to $21.24 or above ๐Ÿ™‚

            Apr 20, 2017 20:36 PM

            In the near term we may be traveling down into the $17’s for a while.

    Apr 20, 2017 20:24 AM

    Cory/Chris:
    Good discussion as most are. The one thing with trump; the longer things go in this cycle/event, the more he owns it. With that in mind, I believe he can be convinced to ‘get on board’ whatever, simply for his own namesake.

      Apr 20, 2017 20:56 AM

      True — he’s a “pragmatist” who will take any and all positions to be loved and to be told he’s doing something he’ll be loved for. I’m sure the neocons and old supply-siders alike (such as Mnuchin today with his “dynamic scoring” claptrap) are all cooing over The Donald’s place in history and telling him how “bigly” things will turn out if they only follow the same policies that int he past didn’t work (except for finance.) — So this is the downside of Trump NOT being an ideologue or having any center except his own self/ego.

        Apr 20, 2017 20:12 PM

        Very good read on his mindset/personality. Thanks.