Chris Temple from The National Investor – Thu 20 Apr, 2017

Economic or Credit Cycle… Are we at the End of one?

On a weekly basis we are inundated with economic data that show week or week or year over year change. While this information is useful it plays into a bigger and one could argue more important narrative, where do we stand in the economic cycle. As Chris Temple brings up in today’s interview we also have a credit cycle to worry about since the recent recovery has been almost entirely driven by cheap money and Fed policy.

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Featuring:
Chris TempleCory Fleck
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Comments:
  1. On April 20, 2017 at 9:10 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Dang…..silver under $18………

    • On April 20, 2017 at 9:37 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      silver/gold ratio…………71

    • On April 20, 2017 at 10:11 am,
      Matthew says:

      No worries, Jerry, it just tested the 50 day moving average (currently 17.89).

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p33884849576&a=518453127

      • On April 20, 2017 at 10:12 am,
        Matthew says:
      • On April 20, 2017 at 10:15 am,
        Matthew says:

        With silver down and the silver miners up today, we have a positive divergence for a change.

        • On April 20, 2017 at 11:30 am,
          Blue says:

          Silvercrest metals looks interesting. Its down about 60% since the high last year. It could be a good buy but the bad thing is it broke down yesterday and maybe its going down to fill the gap to 1.40 ish cad. Im really like the company.

          https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W-rjlaqY-Aw

          • On April 20, 2017 at 11:55 am,
            Matthew says:

            Blue, I don’t follow that one but I don’t think it’s going to fill the next gap anytime soon.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p07851134793&a=519142317

          • On April 20, 2017 at 12:14 pm,
            Blue says:

            I think its bottoming right now like the rest of the silverminers. Its a slow and boring process but its good for the future. Im buying in this really nice company todayπŸ˜€

          • On April 20, 2017 at 12:17 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Blue – I follow Silvercrest, but don’t own it (used to), but think their exploration program in 2017 may breathe a little fresh air into their valuation. As you mentioned many Silver stocks have been pulling back in the recent weeks, so right now the action is par for the course.

            There are a number Silver companies looking quite attractive to me, as well as many of the small gold producers and developers. Been nibbling at a few into this recent weakness.

            Cheers!

          • On April 20, 2017 at 12:35 pm,
            Blue says:

            Yes youre doing the right thing, nibbling. Dolly Varden is on my radar a nice exploration play but I think its not gonna move until their drillprogram starts i june I think. NibblingπŸ‘

          • On April 20, 2017 at 12:49 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yep. Been nibbling at Dolly Varden for sure. Summer drilling isn’t that far away….

            Neither is Summer Lovin’ …

          • On April 20, 2017 at 12:57 pm,
            Blue says:

            Another interesting juniorminer is Anfield Gold ANF. Its under the radar but it is soon going to show the teeth. Its a good buy right here 0,86-0,90 cad. Down from 1.9 cad last year. Ross Beaty Legendary leadership. Im buying right here. Nibbling is wonderful

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:19 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, I’ve looked at Anfield Gold, as a Ross Beaty play, as well as Orca Gold.

            Right now my only Ross Beaty play is Alterra Power.

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:22 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Ross Beaty also owns 17.4% of Savary Gold which has my interest in West Africa, and they are in JVs with another Explorer in that area that I do own Sarama Resources.

            They are right by Roxgold, Seamfo, Endeavour Mining, and Teranga on that South Hounde belt. Savary and Sarama are going to get gobbled up by one of those companies.

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:30 pm,
            Blue says:

            Ross is the strong but silent type of investor. Good luck investing, Ex!
            And thanks Matthew for the Silvercrest chart, very helpful!

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Blue – Yes, Ross walks softly but carries a big stick….

            Good luck to you in your investing as well.

          • On April 20, 2017 at 6:34 pm,
            Scott says:

            I started buying Anfield when Rick Rule mentioned it. He appeared on BNN and a caller asked what’s the catalyst for the stock going forward? Rick replied, “The catalyst is Ross Beaty.” πŸ™‚

          • On April 20, 2017 at 10:24 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Scott. Yes, that sounds just like something RR would say. (lol). πŸ™‚

            I’ll have to take a closer look at Anfield Gold, but last time I looked in Ross Beaty-land I I was more interested in Orca Gold and Savary Gold.

      • On April 20, 2017 at 10:23 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Matthew………thanks for the info………..J

        • On April 20, 2017 at 12:19 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Ditto. Good Silver and Silvercrest charts Matthew. Much appreciated.

  2. On April 20, 2017 at 9:16 am,
    CFS says:

    But look at Pt, Pd!

    • On April 20, 2017 at 9:41 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Up today……down tomorrow………..

      • On April 20, 2017 at 12:47 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Frank from Moscow should check out Jubille Platinum (JLP.L) (JUBPF)

        2 good words Jubilee and Platinum all wrapped up into 1 – Uncle Wally Jr.

        • On April 20, 2017 at 12:54 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          ;0

          • On April 20, 2017 at 12:55 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            or…….. :)….. good one………Uncle Wally would be proud……

          • On April 20, 2017 at 12:59 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Uncle Wally likes Mint Jubilees……… Kentucky Derby TIme……..

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:25 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Kentucky Derby time….. Looks like I’ll get out my ser sucker suit and ell my lady to get a big hat.

            πŸ˜‰

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:26 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            ser = seer (seersucker suit)

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:29 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Seer suckers rally…….in silver……..seer does suck

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:30 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Not if you have the inside plan to navigate these days…… The Seersucker Guide:

            https://i.ytimg.com/vi/6xEbvltHqoY/maxresdefault.jpg

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:50 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            A Charleston, SC. favorite…….all southern gentlemen need a seersucker suit., the wardrobe is not complete without one…… :). Check out Ben Silvers…….

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:51 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ben Silver.com

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:52 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ben Silvers.com sorry

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Nice. Ben Silvers Seersucker Suit. (try saying that 5 times fast)

            http://www.bensilver.com/Powder-Blue-and-Cream-Seersucker-Sport-Coat,31401.html#.WPkf72nDE-U

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:55 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I was correct the first time…….no “s”…….tell um Uncle Wally sent ya…… πŸ™‚

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:57 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            “Yes…. I’m calling about the Uncle Wally discount…… yes, I’ll hold while you check….”

          • On April 20, 2017 at 1:57 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            check out the wing tips……two tone…white and brown(maybe Aldens)…. then you have that complete outfit…….. πŸ™‚

          • On April 20, 2017 at 2:00 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            …. not so fast…. almost complete…..

            The getup wouldn’t be complete with out Indian Head Penny Cuff links:

            http://www.bensilver.com/American-Indian-Head-Penny-Blue,1495.html#.WPkhIWnDE-U

          • On April 20, 2017 at 2:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I’d prefer buffalo nickel or mercury dime cuff links but I’m not too picky.

          • On April 20, 2017 at 2:03 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            ditto………do not forget the socks…..never mind… going into summer, forget the socks…

          • On April 20, 2017 at 2:11 pm,
            Excelsior says:
          • On April 20, 2017 at 2:12 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            to summer time “no socks” and ended up like this guy…..

            http://cdn.garrisonbespoke.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/seersucker-suit.jpg

          • On April 20, 2017 at 2:13 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for that wonderful advice OOTB.

            Now…. here is your Libertarian TIP (minus the taxes)…..

            http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cfi27m-IMG_6320.JPG

          • On April 20, 2017 at 2:17 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Liberty…….sox it to em…….. πŸ™‚ thanks for the tip……….

  3. On April 20, 2017 at 10:29 am,
    CFS says:

    https://youtu.be/WXRORZ0UK-s?t=33

    Epstein morning TA.

  4. On April 20, 2017 at 10:32 am,
    Chartster says:

    Do you guys realize the foundation Trump has constructed with all of the major industry in the US? The banking guidelines are about to become more favorable for small business. They are about to reinstate Glass Steagall. They have the votes right now to repeal O care. Then the tax cut will be done.

    The credit cycle ended months ago. That’s why you see the massive deficit in pension paper. Doc made a statement yesterday on the market wrap that was spot on. He said, they” can’t let the markets drop until some type of stimulus happens”. When the infrastructure starts, they” will let the markets go. The pension funds that need it, will start getting rehydrated. The Donald understands it, a bit better than you might think
    ( obviously )

  5. On April 20, 2017 at 10:41 am,
    Stephan B Feibish says:

    A repeat warning about a crash. When the market crashed in 1987 my stops where worthless. I was stopped out at the bottom of any individual stock’s price. I owned Medtronics, Applied Materials, Federal Express, … It didn’t matter whether the company was a “good” company or a bad company.

    • On April 20, 2017 at 11:30 am,
      GH says:

      A very good point.

    • On April 20, 2017 at 1:36 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      We’ve just left a 5 year PM and commodities bear market. I’m used to dealing with those conditions, where the good are discarded with the bad, on a weekly basis. πŸ˜‰

      • On April 20, 2017 at 1:48 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Many of them are smaller Jrs under $3 where you can’t use stops anyway. It’s not uncommon to have many names up/down 5% 8% 10% 15% 20% 30% in one day with no brakes.

        ______________________________________________________________________

        That is exactly why we developed our special line of “Precious Metals Depends”

        “When your favorite mining share takes a dump, you can relax and let it all go with the super absorbent Precious Metals Depends.”

        — Now with triple-ply “Day Traders Maximum Support” that also feature “I $hit you Not” leg locks…… (available at a bullion dealer near you).

      • On April 20, 2017 at 3:39 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Hope ya right Excelsior. Considering it was a bear market, time still went reasonably quick in that period. I still maintain that the level of excitement in PMs should be kept in check until gold and silver near or clear the $1500 and $26 level. I dont think those prices are coming this year but a gradual climb could be quite beneficial for the metals. We shall see I spose.

        • On April 20, 2017 at 10:21 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed Ozibatla. Don’t get me wrong, my level of excitement hasn’t been much the last few weeks. I’m generally optimistic that later this year (Aug/Sept/Oct) that Gold may have a chance at rising to take out $1377.50 (the high from 2016). I’d be encouraged if that happened and we had a “higher high” for 2017, even if only marginally (maybe up in the $1420 region). As for Silver, I’d like to see it get above $20 again for many of the miners I hold, and ideally above last year’s high of $21.23.

          One step at a time…..

          • On April 20, 2017 at 10:30 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            For Silver the next overhead resistance based on prior peaks/troughs are:

            $19.00 – peak
            $19.27 – trough
            $20.24 – peak
            $20.83 – peak
            $21.23 – peak

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83731985530

          • On April 20, 2017 at 10:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            For clarity, I started at $19, but there are the recent 2 peaks at $18.54 and $18.66 that will act as resistance first, but assuming we take out the recent highs on an impulse leg then the real resistance starts at $19 and works it way up to the bigger resistance at $21.23.

            For people that don’t like technical data points, then just get excited if we get to $21.24 or above πŸ™‚

          • On April 20, 2017 at 10:36 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            In the near term we may be traveling down into the $17’s for a while.

  6. On April 20, 2017 at 11:24 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Cory/Chris:
    Good discussion as most are. The one thing with trump; the longer things go in this cycle/event, the more he owns it. With that in mind, I believe he can be convinced to ‘get on board’ whatever, simply for his own namesake.

    • On April 20, 2017 at 11:56 am,
      Temple says:

      True — he’s a “pragmatist” who will take any and all positions to be loved and to be told he’s doing something he’ll be loved for. I’m sure the neocons and old supply-siders alike (such as Mnuchin today with his “dynamic scoring” claptrap) are all cooing over The Donald’s place in history and telling him how “bigly” things will turn out if they only follow the same policies that int he past didn’t work (except for finance.) — So this is the downside of Trump NOT being an ideologue or having any center except his own self/ego.

      • On April 20, 2017 at 12:12 pm,
        Silverdollar says:

        Very good read on his mindset/personality. Thanks.

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