Don’t trust the gap up in the US markets today
The US markets gaped up today and the VIX made a big gap down. I am not buying into this move today. Some quick comments on the USD, gold and silver is also included in this market wrap. After looking at the silver chart I was a little surprised at my outlook considering how it has been struggling recently.
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Here is the article that the Hedgeless Horseman referenced at the top of his editorial:
______________________________________________________________
Global Silver Mining Industry Productivity Falls To The Lowest In History
Posted by SRSROCCO – Mining, News, Precious Metals – April 24, 2017
Silver was pretty resilient today considering all the things going on with currencies, general stock indices, geopolitics, and mild weakness in gold.
One interesting point made in that article was how record amounts or ore are being processed the last few years for an ever shrinking yield. Those companies that can locate high grade deposits will really stand out as this metals cycle continues forward.
Cory – Interesting thoughts on the VIX gap down today. Everything must be fine in Mudville.
Bobby McFerrin – Don’t Worry Be Happy
Ex, Robin Williams is in that video. DT
I know. He was happy then. The only constant is change…..
I miss Robin Williams…..we could use some humor these days….Wonder what he would say about Trump….and Hilly and Billie……..
Something is surely wacky in silver…….
how so?
silver should be well over $20 by now………
It will get there by year’s end. Silver has a good shot at the mid $20’s next year.
When Silver get’s back over $20 (end of 2017/early 2018) then the related miners (especially the small producers and advanced stage development companies) will really stretch their legs….
Dang…..it is always NEXT YEAR……… 🙂
I believe we could test the 2016 high of $21.23 later this year. However, the mid-$20’s will likely take until next year.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79773779016
Silver $17.91 (Still pretty close to that $18 level, and we thought it would trade in the $17’s for a while…..)
Silver acted stronger today than it has in the last few weeks, but one day doesn’t make a market. If Silver starts outperforming Gold, then that is good for the Precious Metals sector.
71 to 1 ratio………
performance needs to be 55 to 1 ………..
this reminds me, in the 70’s when Nixon , had everyone going 55mph on the Interstates to save fuel……was a joke , and that is exactly the same here…..
That works for me. 65:1 60:1 55:1 who knows? As this bull market unfolds Silver will gain ground on Gold, and outperform it on a percentage basis to the upside. The same will happen in the quality Silver stocks relative to the Gold stocks as a general trend. However, if we get any more PM weakness in the next few months, then the converse is also true.
I think the silver stealers.net , has a great hidden message on silver…….which no one seems to think about………Like it is the govt.and…. are we ever stupid.
IF, Global production is the lowest in history, yet, we consume more silver today than ever before, something is wacky………..jmho
We are still fairly well supplied on physical Silver for now, but that trend will change over the next few years as it becomes increasingly difficult to find the high grade Silver in exploration, and producers have more of challenge replacing their reserves.
This will make companies with Silver exploration much more valuable if they do hit paydirt (like Dolly Varden, Brixton Metals, Kootenay Silver, Klondike Silver, Defiance Silver, etc…)
Also the Developers that are still exploring like Alexco, Bear Creak, Minco, Bayhorse, Silver Bear, will benefit from continuing to expand their ounces in the ground.
It is also overlooked that many of the Producers (like Impact Silver, Americas Silver Corp, Excellon Resources, Santacruz Silver, Avino Silver & Gold, Endeavour, Great Panther, etc….) also have very exciting Exploration targets around their existing mines and many have a pipeline of Silver projects coming down the pike…..
The Silver miners are going to be a very lively sector the next few years, because in addition to rising Silver prices and out-performance to Gold and Gold miners, they have the added kicker of rising Zinc & Lead prices a credits that bring down their Costs, improve Margins, and will help with Free Cash Flows.
So far the frenzy into Zinc miners seems to be missing the fact that much of the Zinc everyone is looking for is held on the properties that “Silver” mining companies control. Just another boon for the Silver miners moving forward.
Speaking of Zinc, a few of the companies have started taking a breather and pulled back a bit recently. I have a few in the hopper at present, but may continue to nibble into weakness.
Hi Shad :
I have been slowly buying into the weakness. I have noticed that the explorers that have reported nice intercepts have been still performing pretty good compared to their peers.Pretty slim pickings,but there still is a couple of “stealth movers.”
3 weeks continued strength,
NCA.TO
VIT.V
OOO.V
ERD.TO
Unfortunately I don’t own any of these,but it is nice to see explorers performing in this environment of uncertainty.
Yes, absolutely. In fact, a case could be made that many of the explorers getting good drill results have held up quite well, and there are a slew of them that could be mentioned (in multiple commodities as well).
I follow some of the chatter, news, and opinions on all 4 of those companies you mentioned, and would consider Newcastle and Victoria Gold as 2 of the more discussed Developers (but still doing great exploration work as well). Otis and Erdene have had mixed results in the past, but have both been on a consistent climb higher the last 2 years. They are very popular over at ceo.ca.
Here’s the Otis Gold room for example of how jazzed investors are on some of these explorers:
Johnk – P.S. – I like that term “stealth movers.” 😉
Let’s go find more of them. Cheers!
USA, USA, USA, buy the producers. DT
Hi DT :
USA is on my list. Once production from San Rafael starts showing up, this one is really going to be a winner.
Non levered IRR +100%.
Targeted 2018 free cash flow of $30 million.
Gidee-up!
Ditto.
I am going to accumulate USA also.
Keep an eye on China. Remember when China catches a cold everybody gets sick.
Notice the 68 basis point move today in the Chinese ten year bond.
Also the S&P having a good day today, the average is continuing to make lower highs.
I’d hate to think about what may happen to the world if China gets an enema then…
Saga governor green-lights restart of Genkai nuclear reactors
APR 24, 2017
SAGA – Saga Gov. Yoshinori Yamaguchi on Monday approved the restart of two reactors at the Genkai nuclear power plant, with each scheduled to go online as early as this summer.
(MXSG) Mexus smelts first gold at Santa Elena mine
April 24th, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE)
“This test run went well resulting in a small amount of dore. The crew will be fine tuning the temperature of the furnace, adjusting the flux mixture, and installing a more precise weighing system. These are normal steps for a start-up and won’t take long to perfect. This is a hallmark moment for Mexus and marks what will be the first of many gold pours to come.” added CEO Paul Thompson.
http://mexusgoldus.com/mexus-smelts-first-gold-at-santa-elena-mine/
Robert Friedland goes to Hollywood
TRISH SAYWELL APRIL 24, 2017
“One of Robert Friedland’s pet peeves is that as people move away from the country to the city they become divorced from the supply chain and no longer understand where things come from. They don’t realize, he says, that everything they touch is either grown or mined. Take a look at everything around you, he urges, “we either mined it or we grew it—there are no exceptions.”
“Most people who live in urban environments think a ham sandwich comes from a refrigerator—they don’t really visualize all those pigs being slaughtered in a river of blood outside Chicago,” he adds. “Most people don’t realize that when they walk into a dark room and turn on the light, somewhere a generator has to kick in and give them that power, because there’s virtually no storage of electricity in the grid. We think miners have to do a much better job of explaining how fundamental we are to improving this world. That’s why we have gotten into Hollywood—that’s why we are in the movie business.”
“Friedland says he’s working with his connections in Hollywood to make movies that will, in an entertaining way, re-position mining—the exact opposite to how producer and director James Cameron portrayed the industry in his blockbuster 2009 sci-fi film Avatar….”
“Mining in general has been viewed askance by Hollywood for a long time,” Friedland says. “Hollywood has given mining a very bad reputation.”
“In what he describes will be “the revenge of the miners,” Friedland is producing a 60-part series for television called Red Rush that he describes as being “somewhat related to copper mining on Mars in the 29th Century….”
“We are interested in doing a sequel to that movie that presents the solution to the problem,” he says. “It’s not to scare people about global warming—we want to talk about what you can do for your children and grandchildren and talk about the revolution in the transportation industry, power generation, and electrical storage, and what metals you need.”
http://www.northernminer.com/news/robert-friedland-goes-hollywood/1003785719/
Epstein end of Day TA:
https://youtu.be/zP21pgAf8v8?t=31
Soft wood from Canada going to have a 20% tariff ……….housing is going to get hit….
Trump had McCain and Lindsey Graham to dinner at the Whitehouse this evening. He really has a bad choice in advisers.
I assume he’s trying to butter up McCain and Graham to get legislation passed.
Nah.. McCain and Graham are like catnip for Trump. He’s just asking them how they would like to exit congress. (the hard way, or easy way) As, I’m sure he’s got “the book” on both of them.
I would love to be the fly on the wall at that meeting.
Talk about Wacky……..Kitty Cat Jenner is on Fox New….I’ll be back, I just got to know what she-he-it…..has to say…… LOL……
“The New Silk Road is on its way”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4VJj9yuh_8
Peter Schiff calling for an imminent decline in the USD, so you know we are head d to new all time highs.
Have you guys read this piece about the scum traitor Obama?
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/24/obama-iran-nuclear-deal-prisoner-release-236966
The Goddard Report:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOhJ-COobgE
For investors interested in the Silver Miners – we’ve been having a lively discussion this morning on the Silver miners with The Hedgeless Horseman, FundamentalAnalysis, and Onlyflaws. Some very good nuggets tossed around if you scroll up through the old comments.
Talk about dumb asses………Boomer borrowed $100billion for kids college loans and defaults are soaring. We have been warning on this subject for years.
A TRUE JUBILEE in the making………….
see zerhedge.
The swine govt banksters have put everyone in bondage….. Student Loan Payments defaults will cause other loans to default ie house loans, sencond loans, auto loans… Banks forced through this unrealistic law after taking the big hit on credit card defaults 15 yrs ago….under the tricky little banksters with the help of politicians bribed with funding….allowed bankruptcy laws written at the time, put in a clause that the student loan could not be written off under bankruptcy, that was the HOOK.
I’ve said to embrace the new fascist business model and just throw every dime you have into Google and Amazon. More and more resources are being funneled into fewer and fewer hands. Amazon and Google are at the apex of this system
Funny stuff, Spanky, but no thanks. GOOG is up 30% since its low last year and AMZN is up 90%. Meanwhile, my portfolio of junior miners is up 5-fold (more than 6-fold earlier this year) from its low last year.
It’s risk free though. :p
Risk-adjusted it blows the miners out of the water.
I’ll take the miners, hands down. Volatility is opportunity, not risk, in my book.
+500 Matthew
Apr 25 Has Gold Lost Its Mojo? Stewart Thomson 321gold
04/18/2017 Gold: Major Bull Wedge Breakout? Stewart Thomson 321gold
What happened to that “bull wedge”?
Im not picking on Stewart in particular, he just happened to be close and obvious.
So gold breaks down and today “golds taking a rest” ok, why the heck all the “bull wedge” promotion?
I always thought Stewarts method of making cash was a good one, and I sure like his “all ya got is digits…” until ya turn them into gold.
But these guys on the anylists list, % wise your right more often if you bet against them.
Stewart mentions to silver bugs not to be upset their pattern broke down, there is a new one happening. Lucky, Id really be disappointed if we didnt have a pattern happening.
Now, Mr Bob on the 17th, “gold could correct”.
Thats actually a pretty good article.
Notice Mr Bob is not on the list.
Stewart is always best when talking about the big picture and that bull wedge he mentioned last week is still there.
http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/17apr/2017apr18gold2.png
Timing is everything, the chart I liked best is the cup and handle, 1980?spike 2011?spike, then the handle.
That one says 10k-50k gold, something like that.
there is always a pattern to be found.
thing is, gold compared to other “investments” really has not been the place to be for the last 50 years, silver was worse.
I do think 5-10% phyzz gold tho, until everything becomes digital I guess.
Gold competes with currencies more than stocks yet is up as much or more than stocks since Nixon ended the dollar’s link to it. That’s pretty impressive considering all the risks that comes with stock-picking.
The fact is, each asset class has its season.
gold in the last 50 yrs has done what its supposed to do. Preserve purchasing power, thats it.
Silver, 50 yrs ago was 1.29? 2.50? depending when ya look, now 18? 17?
whats that? 10-15x gold only preserving purchasing power was infinitely superior.
so much for shortages and to the moon.
Gold bugs would find more people interested if the bugs just told the truth, gold preserves purchasing power, thats all its supposed to do and thats all it does.
At least in one life time.
When people see what the bugs are saying is bs, they lose interest, bugs hurt themselves with the bs.
I believe alot of people would own gold if they knew what it did, without these “to the moon shortage” etc expectations.
Same with jr mining, more might be interested if people flat out told the truth, stopped using the word “speculation” and called it what it is..gambling.
Once they understood clearly its gambling, then they might grasp it, people love to gamble, they really dont like bs.
Course, they could figure out there is a heck of a lot more money in poker so whatdoIknow? lol
Gold only did better than stocks price-wise not total return-wise. The average annual total return for stocks since August 1971 was about 10.25% while the average annual total return for gold was about 8.25%. So you would have made much more money in stocks than in gold since 1971.
Thing is JMiller, golds isnt the same kind of investment, its just money, its not supposed to be anything else. its the bs that sorta confuses some people.
Over all stocks mighta paid 10% but if you pick and choose, as we pick and choose gold, we could find some that blow gold outta the competition completely.
Golds still a good thing, understanding why to own it is the trick and thats not whats told to people. Thats a mistake in my opinion.
Its all wedges cycles and fibinatis. lol
“That’s it… that’s all it does…”
Isn’t that enough? (lol)
Actually, it has done more than that because that’s what sound money does — it passes on gains in efficiency, whatever the causes of those gains are (ex: technology). Gold buys more of just about everything today than it did 50 years ago because life has been getting cheaper in real terms. Deflation, not inflation, is natural.
At its peaks, silver has been up 38 fold from that 1.29 while gold has been up almost 55 fold but there’s more to the situation than meets the eye. Gold is leading silver by a significant margin in this bull market probably because the deflationary pressures have been so great relative to the inflationary ones. Gold took out its 1980 high by a wide margin way back in 2008 while silver failed to do so when it finally reached its 1980 high in 2011. Meanwhile, gold went on to more than double its 1980 high that year.
Going forward, I am very confident that silver is going to catch up and even surpass gold for the eventual win.
Re: “Same with jr mining, more might be interested if people flat out told the truth, stopped using the word “speculation” and called it what it is..gambling.
Once they understood clearly its gambling, then they might grasp it, people love to gamble, they really dont like bs.”
I don’t give a rat’s ass what you or anyone calls it, I call it speculation because I understand the sector and what drives it. My odds are vastly greater than gambling odds because my THINKING benefits my speculation.
JMiller, in the real world, it would have been difficult to match the market. There were few mutual funds and no ETFs until relatively recently. Most investors would have held too many companies for too long as they became obsolete, went bankrupt, or simply got replaced in their respective index.
Physical bullion does not come with the same urge to sell first and ask questions later — at least not for those who understand it.
The fact remains. Gold only did better than stocks price-wise not total return-wise. The average annual total return for stocks since August 1971 was about 10.25% while the average annual total return for gold was about 8.25%. So you would have made much more money in stocks than in gold since 1971.
I just picked up more PPP at .50008 🙂
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PPP&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=13&id=p70930939728&a=507178767
My best fill is now .4850
Wow. I haven’t even looked at my portfolio yet today because I’ve been in meetings, but now I’m scared to look 🙁
Personally, I’ve considered averaging down one more time in PPP, butinstead I trimmed the winnings in a few recently and have had more pressing stocks to average down in. Wild times. Going to see what the damage is….
The onl positive spin I can put on GDXJ is it is possible there is a bullish butterfly fractal on the daily chart. This is grasping at straws though. If anyone has any other bullish slant on this, I am all ears.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p35210147152&a=520063492&listNum=1
Another .75 to 1.00 move down in GCC should do it for the first target for GCC. It is due for some sort of bounce at it has been absolutely pounded. Today will be the fifth day in a row it will close under the bollinger bands–that is extremely rare yet happens in the commodity space an awful lot:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p80483524202&a=520065371&listNum=1
$sugar will bottom before the miners, and it doesn’t look like it is going anywhere for months based on the fact that the monthly stochastics are headed toward oversold but are not yet there. Over the next month or two it is going to hit a new low in all likelihood and then we wait for the bounce back. If commodities are truly in a new bull, $sugar’s monthly stochastics shouldn’t spend much time in oversold territory.
Odds are we see a new low in $hui now (below the December low) and if not, the monthly stochastics are going to hit oversold before it bounces. Either way, $hui is deader than a doornail for the next few months as the monthly bollingers tighten up. I think we will tag the lower monthly bollinger band before we make a new high in $hui.
It is pretty clear to me that the monthly bollingers are going to tighten up before $hui shows its hands, and it could make a run for the lower bollinger during that process.
https://youtu.be/3-aB2aaAv-c?t=33
Estein morning TA
BERLIN (AP) — Ivanka Trump brushed aside groans and hisses Tuesday over her father’s track record and defended his attitudes toward women as she made her first international outing as a White House adviser.
Trump pledged to push for “incremental, positive change” for women in the U.S. economy and told a Berlin conference on women that she’s still “rather unfamiliar” with her role as first daughter and adviser to President Donald Trump.
The scattered groans and hisses came as she described her father as “a tremendous champion of supporting families.”
Trump’s one-day visit, at the invitation of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, gave Merkel and other officials face-to-face access with the president’s influential daughter at a time when world leaders are still trying to discern where his policies will lead.
Merkel and Trump were part of a high-powered panel discussion Tuesday at the W20 Summit, a women-focused effort within the Group of 20 countries, entitled “Inspiring women: Scaling up women’s entrepreneurship.” They were joined by Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde and the Netherlands’ Queen Maxima, among others.
Catherine Austin fitts:
Out of all the gurus……she has come closer than most on her 3 yrs ago forecast …..as she stated the stock market would “crash UP”, meaning go Up while most were figuring crash.
THAT WAS A GOOD ONE and ANOTHER EYE OPENER
Excellent Article on the Declining Silver Mining Sector
The Hedgeless Horseman – April 24, 2017
“The declining yield is of course positive for silver investors, especially physical silver investors, in the long run. It means that the marginal energy/cost spent to abstract silver is going higher since there is less silver in every ton being dug up (all else being equal). This in turn means that the “floor” price for silver should also be going higher since producers will need higher and higher prices in order to stay profitable. Of course, this “floor” price is also affected by changes in mining efficiency due to improvement in technology as well as how efficient the mining operations are overall. But all else being equal, we see a decline in high grade silver deposits as well as discoveries overall due to the low hanging fruit phenomena… The best and most profitable deposits have probably already been found.”
“When we hit the “likely bottom” in miners during the beginning of 2016, there were literally companies trading BELOW net cash, and that was when silver was trading for about 14 bucks. If that wasn’t the bottom, can you imagine where miners would have to trade if we go down to $8 in silver? Sure, many companies have cut costs, but still today many companies are barely scraping by, except for the elite miners. Company valuations alone were a tell that silver was trading at ridiculous levels back then, how ridiculous would it be if silver prices were cut in half (granted no revolutionary technology as said before)?”
http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/silver/excellent-article-declining-silver-silver-mining-sector/