What are the odds of Silver retesting the lows in 2015?
Silver continuing on its way down I have Jordan Roy-Byrne with us to share outlook on how deep the price could go this year. While we are in oversold territory so a bounce is due but everyone seems pretty pessimistic about how far it could go. Still overall bullish in the long run we may need to wait until 2018 for the next leg up.
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Matthew, I came across this article today on the loonie, I know you have been following it’s lack of progress, if you are a contrarian now is the time to buy.
The loonie at best will re-test the 2016 low. It’s for sure headed to 69-70. It is 100% correlated with commodities and headed for the crapper along with commodities.
Why doesn’t anyone want to buy something in a *confirmed* bull market (based on the monthly chart), like $USDJPY???
I’m more inclined to think the PM bull market is toast. Even if it is in a new bull, the 2016 highs won’t get taken out until 2018 or 2019, especially the miners. It’s going to be years for sure with the miners, if we are even still in a PM bull.
None of the other prior bull runs in the miners has ever looked this ugly on the weekly and monthly charts.
The whole neutral gold price environment is here to stay, its neither a bull nor a bear market. Markets turning over whenever that happens will be the trigger for the gold bull market to resume its trend upwards. Otherwise the long term price of gold which reflects the average costs of production is here to stay….so more of a neutral price environment.
“Weakness ahead this year and a massive bull market thereafter – maybe next year.”
Same message year in, year out, year in, year out.
Is it any wonder even the stalwarts are losing faith?
Any sane person has to acknowledge that things look pretty dire in terms of commodities and their #1 driver, $USDJPY. This is from a monthly chart perspective too.
It’s possible we get a double bottom and maybe even slightly higher than the 2016 lows, in commodities, miners and PMS, but it’s going to be ugly and painful unless you were genius enough to buy the absolute lows in 2015. In any event, you will feel like an absolute sucker for sitting through such a massive roundtrip.
SLV 5 and 14 day rsi at levels only seen about 7 or 8 times in the last 11 years. It was typically followed by lower lows after a bounce.
At this rate in gold we will be sub $1200 in a few weeks.
Gary Savage was ridiculed for calling a top so vociferously weeks ago. Looks like he was dead right. His GDX target is $17. He is guessing the lows could be hit in June and that gold is headed to a low around $1160.
Savage is a gambler, not an analyst. He has bankrupted his followers back to the stone age. There are blogs dedicated to some of his egregious calls and trades with 3x ETFs. Like Bo Polny.
$silver’s 14 day RSI didn’t hit this level during the entire bull run except for 2008, where it continued to waterfall downwards.
The last time this happened in 2013 and 2014 price continued to collapse for another month. in 2014 price collapsed another $3 even after hitting such extreme oversold levels.
This is in no way shape or form bullish from a contrarian perspective. We could see a real waterfall decline.
There was a reason the CoT short position were at all time highs a couple of weeks ago.
David Skarica on Palisade Radio: