Future moves for the Dow and Gold
Today and tomorrow are important days for the US markets and in turn will impact the metals. If the momentum (MACD) continued to roll over on the daily chart we should see some more selling over the next couple weeks. This would rotate some money into the metals which have been sold off so much that they are due for a bump. A word of caution, don’t chase this move up as it very well may be short-term.
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Rochford Gold Project Presentation
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every new bottom starts with chart indicators turning positive and we dont know how far and hard they will run, nobody does. Today $yen is starting to strengthen as yen traders buy yen and gold….as US rates back off. Doc create a $yen chart of 10 years with gold running in the background…its all about yen
It is true that no one knows “how far and how hard they will run” but there are usually clues. If the miners finish strong today and follow through with more of the same tomorrow, there’s a good chance that the coming move up will surprise many. The fact that the miners have done well while the metals have struggled is a good sign that is bolstered by very negative sentiment and oversold conditions.
After AXU went up 5-fold last year, the leverage it obtained, among other factors, kept me looking skyward and that turned out to be the correct position. It is currently still 40% above the level it was at at the time despite having pulled back 47% from its high.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=22&id=p58690370941&a=509955393
I’ve added a lot of AXU over the last 2 months and eagerly await their exploration program for 2017 and their mine restart decision by year end. Lots of catalysts to hit for Alexco in the 2nd half of 2017. Giddy Up.
J; you’re correct about the correlation. Look at a monthly chart of yen and gold and it sure appears to me we’ll be trading in a monthly trading range for awhile. However, it’s only a matter of time before both get their mojo back.
The mining ETFs finished in bullish order. From worst to best: GDX (2.37%), GDXJ (3.75%), SIL (3.82%), SILJ (3.96%). My juniors finished up 5.1% overall with none down and a few flat.
AXU got smashed today, I presume primarily because of an announced share dilution. It has been outperforming the larger cap silver miners for sure, but today was a bit of payback.
I really hope you are right about a surprise move. I was looking at the $CDNX and I noticed that it just had a golden cross. It’s weekly chart looks great right now, I must admit. Not sure if it is going to want to test the 200 WMA for a few more weeks, but if it can generate some daylight above the 50 WMA, it could actually turn here.
The conditions are perfect for a surprise. Neither the retail crowd nor the experts believe that anything very good is about to happen. In fact, most are probably out of the market because it’s May and they plan on buying during the fabled “summer doldrums.”
I’ll feel much better about our prospects if we get strong follow-through tomorrow.
The miners rallied strongly through the summers of 2003 and 2005.
Agree with your thoughts that a surprise would be a surprise to practically all……..Almost all the analysts/articles I have read in the last month or so seem to have taken their cue from each other. Remember the line, When everybody is thinking the same thing, no body is thinking!
Exactly!
One week ago was a good time to buy…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p40060561605&a=520792672
Doc, please keep us informed about your tests of poison ivy remedies.
BB; it’s starting to heal—I even worked for awhile in the yard today.
I hope you didn’t try to pull up the poison ivy by hand!
😮
I’ve quit all remedies except for the remedy of time.
Doc, Benadryl 1oz. Original Strength Itch Stopping Cream works within a few minutes.
That’s what my son tells me
The time to add positions was the last 3 weeks. I wouldn’t chase this thing unless you’re a day trader.
SLV:GLD is looking good:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=13&id=p94022918329&a=521853037
Market technician Glenn Neely sent a public message yesterday, warning of a “stock market crash” in the next 1-3 months. He has been fairly prescient in the past and called for a multi-year gold bear market back in Spring 2013, FWIW.
By Glenn Neely:
“In the last 35-years, there have been ONLY 4 occasions when I was certain a stock market crash was coming – they were the high in 1987, the high in 2000 (the internet bubble), the end of the real estate boom in early 2008 and the high made August 2015. In ALL cases, a massive decline followed.
At this time, based on all the things I know about the U.S. stock market (current Wave structure implications, U.S. margin debt, insider traders selling stock, overbought warnings from my Moat Index, a rising interest rate environment and the volume of new accounts being opened at brokerage firms in 2017 around the country), THIS is the FIRST TIME since August 2015 that I’m VERY concerned a “Stock Market Crash” is just 1-3 months away.”
http://justsignals.blogspot.com/2017/05/glenn-neely-from-neowave.html
The 50 month MA has capped the HUI since last summer while the 20 month MA has supported it. The two MAs will cross bullishly in June for the first time since June 2010 – 7 years ago. You have to go back to June 2002 to find the one before that.
I’ll stick with my 2016 comment that 2017 will be a great year.
Someone was selling USA, but in the last two days it has been recovering. I am thinking they liquidated it out of GDXJ. I am the only person who cares. DT
While most are focused on silver’s break of trend line support (dashed black line), Schiff fork support is holding…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74638109251&a=523325696
GDXJ priced in gold looks superb:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83962321226&a=518305274
Gold looks ready to turn up from the 89 week MA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p97998913431
Another look at SLV:GLD indicates a likely bullish turn:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p71401509163&a=522081264
The loonie continues to struggle but support is holding:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p99619031467&a=521484960
The great chart that FranSix shared is turning in gold’s favor:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX%3A%21PRII&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23915836692&a=405031761
The market almost lost it today but somehow it gets rescued.
“Low Risk JNUG Buy: Already up over ten times risk!”
http://www.trendlinemagic.com/2017/05/low-risk-jnug-buy.html
As noted on the other thread, because this morning the Dollar spiked down without filling a very significant USD/EUR gap above, it should be considered a swing trade only — with a shorting opportunity to come.
JAGUAR MINING REPORTS Q1 2017 RESULTS, 86% HIGHER PRODUCTION AT PILAR, EXPLORATION SUCCESS, MAINTAINS PRODUCTION GUIDANCE FOR 2017
May 11, 2017
>>>> Q1 2017 Financial Highlights
● Gold production increased 5% to 22,292 ounces and gold ounces sold increased to 24,035 ounces compared with 21,197 ounces produced and 22,881 ounces sold in Q1 2016, respectively.
● A temporary interruption of mining activities in one section of Orebody A at Turmalina was partially offset by an 86% increase in gold production at Pilar.
● Revenue was up 9% to $29.2 million, compared with $26.7 million in Q1 2016, and the average realized gold price of $1,215 was 4% higher compared with $1,165 in Q1 2016.
● The strengthening Brazilian Real over the US dollar had the effect of increasing unitary costs in the reporting currency. During Q1 2017, the Brazilian Real strengthened 19% against the US dollar, compared with Q1 2016. In addition to the currency impact, the following items impacted the costs in Q1 2017:
o Cash operating costs (“COC”) increased 25% to $924 per ounce of gold sold, compared to $742 per ounce sold during Q1 2016, due to lower production at Turmalina and the increased cost for secondary development at Pilar.
o All in sustaining costs (“AISC”) increased 22% to $1,323 per ounce of gold sold, compared to $1,086 per ounce sold during Q1 2016, mainly due to a 20% increase in sustaining mine development and purchases of new equipment for Pilar.
● Operating cash flow was $1.9 million, compared to $9.5 million in Q1 2016. Lower operating cash flow with continued investments in capital programs resulted in a cash balance of $18.2 million as of March 31, 2017, compared to a cash balance of $26.3 million at December 31, 2016.
● During Q1 2017, the Company also continued to invest in its Growth Exploration Program, initiated in November 2016, with approximately 25% of the drilling and development milestones achieved to date.
● The Company is maintaining 2017 production guidance of 100,000 – 110,000 ounces, which will be reviewed at the end of Q2 2017.
In view of the volatility in the gold price and continued strengthening of the Brazilian Real since September 2015, the Company has initiated a cost reduction program to offset these external factors. This includes reducing the Roça Grande operations by approximately 40% in overall headcount at that site. Company-wide general and administrative costs have also been reviewed with the aim of reducing headcount in support functions. The Company will also continue its assessment of the maintenance departments to further incorporate preventive procedures, improve equipment availability, and reduce costs.
“Subsequent to the quarter end, Jaguar entered into a preliminary agreement with Sprott Private Resource Lending (Collector) LP (“Sprott Lending”) for an additional tranche of $5 million on terms similar to those of the secured loan facility that Jaguar entered into with Sprott Lending on November 7, 2016.”
I picked up a bunch under .40 yesterday and more today at an average of .408 (Cdn).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAG.TO&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p07227232772&a=523224312
Me too.
It was likely the increase in their #AISC that had investors spooked and caused the sell-off on the news release. However, if one looks at WHY the AISC went up and the Capital and Cash flows got reduced, then it actually makes all the sense in the world.
They invested capital into their mines and equipment, but this will bolster their business longer term, so it is worth the one quarter dip in capital and cash-flows and sets them up for a strong 2nd half of 2017 and solid 2018. To me that is a wise strategy, and when they have stronger returns and improving meterics over the next few quarters, it will have been worth the candle.
I’d say it was the 3 cent earnings miss that caused the selloff. Though elevated, the volume was unimpressive considering the size of the move — and I can see why. The company will be fine and now has more leverage built-in.
Notice the perfect 2.5 month cycles (vertical lines):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p05513775328&a=523279462
Interesting bounce off support yesterday for sure. Thanks.
I mentioned the cycles (measured low to low) because they don’t always play out so consistently – which adds to the likelihood that JAG just put in a cycle low.
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MIF May 2017: John Kaiser – Discovery Exploration Boom
ADZ/DDNFF MMV.V MNRLF Son-or-Father-of-Homestake & more..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28qmAH2MMV8&t=68s