The metals considering their charts, the USD, and the Fed
I am still on the road waiting for another wedding this weekend for a good friend. Currently in Philadelphia for a couple baseball games I am staying up to date on the markets with the help of all our guests and all your comments!
To kick off today Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me to share his insights on the metals. We look at gold and silver and the underlying stocks which all remain in the middle of their trading ranges. We also consider the moves we have seen in the USD and what seems to be a sure Fed rate hike next month.
Click here to visit Jordan’s website. He does a great job keeping his subscribers up to date.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
P.S. Happy Birthday!
June bed bugs……in most hotel today……..might be the problem.. 🙂
Bed bugs – not very romantic.
not unless you are a june bug……..
Middle of their range, because no one knows what is going on…
Greg Mannarino had some great comments yesterday.
PPT supporting an overblown stock market…..
As many have been saying, bitgold, bitcoin(soros scam) taking some of the steam out of the PMs.
Sean Hannity from FOX NEWS……asked to take a vacation…….SETH RICH story is heating up…..zh
Speaking of POLITICS…. CORY……What did WALTER JONES have to say?.
BITCOIN ….Explodes overnite ………..$4000……….in South Korea……….
The real story which should explode, is the illegal mass surveillance of all opponents to the Democratic National Party.
Total abuse of power by Obama and his minions…..Rice, NSA officials, Comey of FBI.
Many should end up in jail.
I would agree…………..DNC…..pedogate needs to EXPLODE, first people need to get a handle on the behind the scene issue, then they may be able to see why all the COVER UP.
The illegal mass surveillence is …..the corrupt are worried.
Just check out all the available issues on OBAMA , that we have talked about for 8 yrs., the guy is corrupt, as hell……….
He screwed up EVERYTHING he touched…….
Not jail but restitution or death. I can’t afford to support them another minute.
we were just talking about death……..should a christian advocate DEATH?
but, I agree that these Traitors ……..should be held accountable……
of course Jerry, “thou shalt not kill” was a statement, not a commandment.
b……..that was jewish Law at the time of Moses…….but, that is another topic…..
Christians are not UNDER THE LAW of Moses………..but, recommended as you say a statement for a civilized nation.
Who ever said Obama was a Christian.
I think Islamic punishment would be more appropriate.
Nobody here said he was a christian…….You will know them by their fruits….
We advocate adherence to God’s Word. Of course the death penalty is permitted, in fact, it is required. It’s part of the moral law that never changes. Christians are set free from the penalty of the law which is everlasting death, not the death penalty for murder.
See Acts 5:9
Then Peter said to her, “How could you two have agreed to put the Spirit of the Lord to such a test? Listen, you can hear the footsteps of the men who have just buried your husband coming back through the door, and they will carry you out as well!”
Wayne , you are mixing words here…….
Going back and rereading my question , I see where there is room for misunderstanding.
You guys are far better qualified than I to debate The Bible.
But regarding death to the villains, if you put in the work to try to figure out who the arch-villains are, I believe you’ll conclude that they are among (if not THE) the most powerful people in the world. They are the heirs to those who have started world wars and damaged the lives of billions of souls through financial chicanery. They destroy countries regularly.
So what are the odds that trying to bring them to justice before a firing squad, hanging from a rope, etc. will turn out well? What are the odds that they’ll destroy the world before allowing themselves to be cornered that way?
Seems better to me to offer clemency, and the option of living out their lives in comfort, in exchange for agreeing to having their ability to do more harm utterly neutralized. Some modern version of sending Napoleon off to a remote island…
Without eliminating the ignorance and institutions that permit the villains to do what they do, executing them will just create job openings, like cutting heads off a hydra.
Seems like pie in the sky, but if we want a better world, something’s gotta give.
Peter being a jew , which is the example here .. Act 5. 9..this is a transitional period where the LAW was still being implemented . God did not wish that anyone be KILLED. The example of the two people being killed were under the LAW. here in ACT 5…was because of stealing, thou shall not steal…….We are not under the LAW as Christians,……Grace has be given at the Cross, …… I therefore, think Wayne is not correct in his decision to KIll. For JESUS has said, those without sin cast the first stone.
Everyone is a sinner , that is why Grace was give …Paul clearly express this…..
sorry for all the misspelling……
I think it drives some people nuts they missed bc.
Kinda like not understanding the net.
I wonder if it really will get to 10k.
I would have to agree with you………old people completely missed the net…..
I wasnt that old. lol
I had kids coming in my store and telling me to get a pewter, I asked “what for?”
Took me awhile before I used one for sales. lol
I told a salesman, in 1977, when he tried to sell me a wang/computer, who would ever need a machine to do business, …… lol
The large corporations have embraced the technology of crypto……..so , I think it is going a lot higher………Bix Weir, has been spot on concerning this, but, no one , including me, have been listening, I remember Hal, which is no longer posting, suggested we should be watching bitcoin, back 3 yrs ago.
While bitcoin or any other crypto currency may be limited in quantity, there is no limit on starting new crypto currencies. It’s a fascinating technology with some good applications, but secure storage of wealth is not one of them, imo.
It is kind of like silver and gold miners……any body with a pick and shovel can own a mine, just start digging…………
I agree with GH, maybe thats the plan. look at etherium? (sp)
when that one gets up there maybe litecoin takes off and on and on until the worlds got enough of them.
I dunno, could happen.
Ex, Do you have any knowledge of Darnley Bay resources for zinc?
I’ve been following it along with the Zinc sector. The issue they need to deal with is WATER if they go too deep, from what I’ve gathered from other Geos. I posted a few thoughts, a chart, and some links on the Jayant B editorial.
Here is the link to the DBL room on ceo.ca where there has been a fair bit of discussion:
DBL did have a nice breakout today.
possible zinc moves before gold, doubt if anyone has been hoarding much of it(comparitivly)
Sure looks like lots is gonna be needed.
Zinc has real Supply / Demand fundamental tailwinds at it’s back and the price has soared over the last year. Many of the old mines have shut down or scaled back production of other base metals, and the mines the remain (like Teck’s Red Dog in Alaska) are mostly depleted.
This price move isn’t just a fad and the smelters are craving more Zinc concentrates, but there are few projects that can supply this demand at present. This is also precisely why so many old projects like Darnley Bay are getting dusted back off and relaunched.
I’m personally quite interested in many of the smaller producers like Trevali and Pasinex, but more so in the Developers like Canada Zinc Metals, Heron Resources, and Red River resources or the super hot Explorers like Tinka, Vendetta, and Callinex.
Lots to Zinc about….
These 4 charts will turn you into a (raging) zinc price bull
Frik Els | 6 days ago
http://www.mining.com/4-charts-will-turn-raging-zinc-price-bull/
not that i know anything special, but some time back when I looked at zinc, Canada Zinc looked ok to me.
Canada Zinc Metals (CZX) (CZXMF) is a solid company in JVs with Teck Resources and Korea Zinc and they have a massive land package and one of the largest undeveloped zinc resources out there.
Here is a Map showing the properties that $CZX $Teck and #KoreaZinc have adjacent to each other, and explains their interest in partnering together:
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ce1i9i-Kechika%20Regional%20Project%20Map.pdf
(TECK) Teck & Korea Zinc are working together at Cirque, and have a tiered option agreement to acquire 70% interest in some of the projects that (CZX) Canada Zinc Metals holds (Cirque East, Pie, and Yuen North). The are adjacent to the Canada Zinc Metals flagship Akie project.
Also, Teck and Korea Zinc did a private placement in $CZX (noticing a trend here).
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ce5hg8-CZX%20-%20Teck%20-%20KoreaZinc%20partnership.pdf
* Here is the info their Akie deposit:
The revised NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate consists of an indicated category of an indicated resource of 19.6 million tonnes grading 8.2% #zinc, 1.6% #lead and 13.6 g/t #silver (at a 5% zinc cut-off grade) and an inferred resource of 8.1 million tonnes grading 6.8% zinc, 1.2% lead and 11.2 g/t silver (at a 5% zinc cut-off grade).
Using this estimate, the deposit contains 3.54 billion pounds of zinc, 685 million pounds of lead and 8.6 million ounces of silver in the indicated category, and 1.2 billion pounds of zinc, 207 million pounds of lead and 2.9 million ounces of silver in the inferred category (at 5% zinc cut-off). The deposit remains open along strike and at depth.
Canada Zinc Metals Corp – Corporate Presentation VIDEO
Peeyush Varshney – Swiss Mining Institute (22/03/17)
Darrnley Bay Resources:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reQejHt57YU
BITCOIN>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>$4000…………..the fedsters should be worried…..with their fake fiat.
McAlfee out with new………mining crypto currencies…….orders 1300 machines……zh
McAfee……not McAlfee……..sorry
$indu:$gold poised to break out here. I fully expect it to at least tag the 200 month MA at 17.62, if not surge above that major MA as it becomes clear the stock market is headed for the moon on the back of yen carry.
The stock market is completely bulletproof. It is backstopped by the world’s currencies. The kicker is that yen carry sends it skyward, but when yen strengthens, it merely goes sideways at worst. Heads I win, tails you lose. To me that strongly suggest $usdjpy is in a new bull.
AMZN and GOOG on an absolute tear. They are going to end up owning the world. It’s the new facist business model. Embrace it and profit with zero risk.
ira epstein morning:
Thanks CFS.
AMZN and GOOG going parabolic here in the short run. The kicker is, there will not be a crash. They will simply consolidate sideways in a 5-10% range for as long as it takes the MAs to catch up.
GOOG’s MACD about to flip positive on the daily chart. Get ready for an epic pop. To correspond with gold and commodities getting dumped and $usdjpy surge.
The Fed can buy as much AMZN and GOOG….as they want, ….after all it is just fiat fake paper, with a IOU on it with your name on it…….this is a complete circle jerk….“`
I think Bitcrap is a better buy at this juncture……..
bc may get ever more popular, but its still sold for fiat.
same as gold, if people really thought fiat had no value they wouldnt take it.
once bc is accepted for taxes, it will absolutely skyrocket.
And the millennials, they like tech, so I would think its just a matter of time.
Re: “if people really thought fiat had no value they wouldnt take it.”
That’s complete nonsense. What they wouldn’t do is store significant wealth/long term savings in it. To step into fiat in order to facilitate other transactions is hard to avoid and not a big deal.
Really Mat?
I think when a person figures a currency has no value they stop taking it.
I would stop taking it.
There are examples if ya look 4 em.
Maybe find me an example of people taking a currency they figure has no value.
Other than a collector of course.
Im speaking in general terms.
Stay away from the “intrinsic” value if ya would.
The dollar has no intrinsic value. What kind of idiot would say that it has no market value?
no example?
I guess you need it spelled out when nothing else needs to be said. Anyone claiming that the dollar has no market value is obviously not worth talking to.
So I stand by my remarks at 8:42 am. Sane people have varying opinions about the risks in holding the unsound dollar but none question that it has market value.
b, the point is that something may have transactional value but be a terrible preserver of purchasing power (wealth).
In 2005 Venezuelans accepted bolivares, but they knew they were a wasting asset / hot potato. They stored wealth outside the banking system in things like cars. Unlike the US, and I assume Canada, where most cars’ value goes down over time, especially for the first 5 or 10 years, there they went up in price (even in US dollar terms). Anywhere inflation is high this is typical.
u never give up do ya mat.
I never once said the dollar had no market value(duh) read what I said again.
What I said was people dont take what they see as valueless, therefore…..wait for it….the dollar(fiat) has value.
You made yourself out to be silly saying that is nonsense.
GH, I never said anything about, transitional or preserving.
I do agree with u tho, its possible u and I have read the same book or two….maybe.
You’re absolutely hopeless little b. I responded in the first place because I thought you were referring to those who (rightly) say that the dollar has no intrinsic value. When I realized that you were referring to unicorns (they don’t exist), that believe the dollar has no market value, I dismissed your whole idiotic premise.
So, Sherlock, you are correct that “if people really thought fiat had no value they wouldnt take it.” But that is self-evident so I thought you were referring to those who don’t like the fact that it has no intrinsic value. They DO exist.
Shame on me for not looking at your comment in the dumbest possible way. You’d think I’d know better by now.
Matty boy, maybe you should stick to charts.
Unicorns dont exists??
Your a little kaffuffled. lol
Maybe try reading before you comment.
Just a suggestion.
Maybe you shouldn’t waste our time with hypothetical scenarios that are as common as unicorns, little b. It would be appreciated.
Bitcoin. Nobody is able to touch it, but it can transact with the blink of an eye. No waiting times, no cross border payments with any risk or frustration of waiting 3 days. Those former hurdles do not exist in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin has an amazing chart. We probably have not seen this before in history of markets, not even in the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s.
What is the most amazing thing about cryptocurrencies? Nobody has any idea where the limit is of its value. All other markets work differently. They have a point where it becomes overvalued. What is overvaluation in Bitcoin?
http://investinghaven.com/screening/bitcoin-price-forecast-2017/
NOBODY KNOWS………
Central Bank/FEDS……..can not control it……
yes, but, took them a long time to figure out the… Semper Augustus,(type of tulip).. was not worth a 120 tons of butter
This is how it works:
http://ibankcoin.com/hattery/files/2013/08/mediaawareness.jpg
That is always good to have that chart stapled to one’s wall……..I have a oil painting of the tulip bulb on mine…….for reminders……….
It’s not just the Fed buying though. Lot’s of people are piggybacking, and why the hell not?
I say get it while you can…….no problem here……..
Like I keep saying, it’s the ultimate moral hazard. The Fed and every other CB have your back. And they are real companies with real assets and human talent. Fascism is glorious.
Real companies tend to go bankrupt from time to time…….from fake reporting ….Enron, Qualcom, AIG…..come to my mind…….but, it is different this time.
“Fascism is glorious”.
lol I had 2 laff.
Theoretical question I’m curious about if anyone would like to chime in: formal definitions aside, is there any practical difference between fascism and socialism?
GH: Nope
Ten Things Millennials Should Know About Socialism – Thomas J. DiLorenzo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZSq_zZ5VrQ
Around the 30 min mark, DiLorenzo says: Fascism is a form of socialism.
Gartman is totally confused again……….zh
It doesn’t take a genius. Just buy every single dip. You cannot lose. They will sacrifice the dollar before they let the stock market fall and everyone knows it. Right now they are having their cake and eating it to with yen carry. Yen carry is draining liquidity from commodities/PMs and sending it straight into FANG. As long as the Fed and BoJ persist with current policies, the sky is the limit. There is no downside to Fed tightening as long as the BoJ keeps the spigot open.
I hope you are not saying that anyone believes Gartman is a genius……….LOL
the main thing Gartman has going for him is CNBC….who is part of the nonsense ….
Greg Mannarino would be a good listen to…..to hear what the FED JUST DID…..in the last couple of days …
Osisko Mining drills 4.7 m of 42.4 g/t Au at Windfall
2017-05-24 17:36 ET – News Release
Mr. John Burzynski reports
OSISKO INTERSECTS 42.4 G/T AU OVER 4.7 METRES AT WINDFALL
Osisko Mining Inc. has released new results from the continuing drill program at its 100-per-cent-owned Windfall Lake gold project located in the Urban township, Quebec. The current 400,000-metre drill program combines definition drilling above the Red Dog intrusion, expansion drilling above and below Red Dog, expansion drilling to the northeast of the main deposit, and exploration drilling on the greater deposit and Urban-Barry project area. Significant new analytical results from 19 intercepts in 10 new holes.
First Majestic Announce illegal Blockade at La Encantada
2017-05-24 10:57 ET – News Release
TORONTO and NEW YORK, May 24, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:FR) (the “Company” or “First Majestic”) announces that a rogue group of union workers have halted activities and blocked the accesses at the La Encantada Silver Mine in the state of Coahuila, Mexico. The illegal blockade arose after some of the unionized individuals did not agree with the bonus that the company and the National Union of Miners, Metallurgists, Steelworkers and Similar Workers of Mexico (National Union), agreed to offer the miners in lieu of profit sharing.
Despite an agreement with the National Union, this rogue group of workers unilaterally decided to form a blockade, which has disrupted operations for all of the mine’s employees. It is currently not known how long the blockade will continue, however, First Majestic is working with the leadership of the National Union in order to resume operations and have the workers return to work.
That type of sentiment makes for an awesome bull trap. I think the market is ready to reverse today. The VIXY chart is looking good…
If the market closes where it’s at, we are going to see new highs. ( I doubt it tho )
Barkerville drills 12.7 m of 24.13 g/t Au at Cariboo
2017-05-25 08:12 ET – News Release
Mr. Chris Lodder reports
BGM INTERSECTS 24.13 G/T AU OVER 12.70 METRES AT MOSQUITO CREEK
Hey!
Bitcoin is theoretically regulated by the CFTC.
LOL!
NOW……..that is a good one……..regulated by the CFTC……..
I see it is news from bloomberg…….it is official , must be true……
AXU daily chart looks terrible. It is about to break down hard. I previously said .90 was probably in the cards, but it could easily go much lower before the ICL in gold. It’s time to start thinking “late 2012” type move. The monthly chart–we will have 4 down months in a row. That has never happened in a bull market. We also had the 50 day EMA cross below the 200 day EMA a while ago–again, something that has never happened during the prior bull runs.
You see, typically in real bull markets the market spends more time advancing than declining. Since it peaked in early August ’16, AXU has been declining for 9 months and has had a mere 1 month rally. Color me skeptical, but that doesn’t seem like a bull market to me.
GCC is even worse. It rallied for 6 months and has been in decline for 11 months now. Again, that doesn’t strike me as a bull market. And if it is, I think it will spend years basing before mounting a sustainable bull rally. Maybe 2020 or 2021.
Spanky. There could be some more pressure on all the Silver miners in the summer doldrums, but keep in mind Alexco (AXU) has resolved their agreement with SLW, has a big Exploration program lined up for the 2nd half of 2017, and they’ll be making the decision to go back into production in the 4th quarter. Those catalysts will support the stock in the latter half of this year, so I’d be very surprised to see it stay down when Aug, Sept, Oct arrive.
Question for you Ex?
What ETFs include AXU? I wonder if it getting slapped around by automatic ETF buy/sell activity. AXU has oddly large % moves (both UP and down) for no fundamental or TA reason that I can devipher.
Brian,
These are the only ETFs I’m aware of that hold Alexco (AXU) The movement is similar to many of the Silver stocks in the sector IMO.
(SIL) Alexco Resource Corp 0.37% 1,030,944 shares
(SILJ) ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP (AXU) 1.91% 888,310 shares $1,172,569
(SLVP) Alexco Resource Corp 0.77% 373,056 shares
I’d highly recommend watching the 2 recent videos posted below, and looking at their updated Corporate Presentation slide deck as a lot has changed for Alexco moving into the latter half of 2017.
The assumptions from late 2016 or even early 2017 should be tossed as there is a new strategy, costs, grade, streaming arrangement, and production mine plan.
Thanks, Ex. Maybe you can flip me from half-empty glass to half-full glass with AXU
OT:QRM
Have you researched Quest Rare Minerals?
I own shares, now.
Brian – I’ve also followed Alexco for years and have owned them off and on, but in 2016 I rode it up and then sold most of it on the sheer momentum of the Silver miners. However, when they started putting out the drill intercepts at and super high grade at Flame & Moth and Bermingham it REALLY caused me to sit up and take notice. In discussing it with other Silver investors, I mentioned this would be a game changer and gets the focus off their Bellekeno mine and showed they have better and higher grade deposits on their property that can be fed into that mill. They have also started finding even more deposits, so this is turning into a much larger district play for them with multiple deposits.
http://www.alexcoresource.com/s/keno_hill.asp?ReportID=515321
To grow things even further they can also take out their neighbors Metallic Minerals and run that mill for decades to come.
As for Quest Rare Minerals, I owned them back in 2011-2013 during the Rare Earth bubble but gave up on them years ago. They had a very well endowed deposit but their stock tanked over 90% and killed all the existing shareholders (like so many REE stocks at that time).
What’s cooking with them lately? I’ll need to revisit what they’re up to it seems….
It looks like they’ve improved the processing and recovery of their Heavy REEs. That is good as those are what is needed in magnets for Windmills and many tech applications. Thanks for the heads up to go revisit the company. Cheers!
_____________________________________________________
MINERAL PROCESSING BREAKTHROUGH COULD PRODUCE LARGER CONCENTRATIONS OF DYSPROSIUM, PRASEODYMIUM, TERBIUM AND NEODYMIUM AT QUEST’S MINE SITE
(Marketwired – May 23, 2017)
My favorite specialty metals companies are still Alakane Resources, Ucore, and Matamec. I also like the Mark Smith trio of NioCorp, Largo Resources, and IBC Advanced Alloys. (As a tip you can get all 3 along with other companies through the Elysee development corp.)
I own AXU, so don’t take this wrong (I have owned or traded AXU since 2006)
I think AXU is NOT a good bellwether for silver PMs. All of my other silver PMs (Both explorers and producers) are acting quite differently. I don’t think the market knows what to make of AXU – is it really an explorer, developer, or a producer?
There is also the distinct possibility that AXU is fairly priced at this SP level (~$1.35) – even assuming production at $17 silver. Personally, I think the estimates of AISC, 400 tpd, and the new, non-linear SLW agreement are EXTREMELY hopeful.
Sorry, Ex. Cross-posting.
I think we may actually disagree on AXU’s potential. But, as I said, I own the stock and refuse to sell right now.
Brian, until Alexco started hitting the higher grade on the Flame & Moth and Bermingham deposits I would have agreed that it was fairly valued, but those feeder deposits have allowed AXU to move towards production even at $18-$20 Silver. Their AISC will be closer to $14 when they start and then will drop as they increase production.
Also, the Silver Wheaton negotiation eased up the pressure of the original Streaming deal to make it more flexible and good for both parties. That is another key development that has not been factored into the current valuation.
Most of the Silver producers and Developers have taken it on the chin since late February, and I see AXU as par for the course.
There are a few rogue Silver explorers that have surged on good drill results, but that is how Explorers in any commodity (Gold, Uranium, Copper, Zinc, whatever…) perform, so I wouldn’t draw any sector correlations there.
(AXU) (AXR) Alexco Resource Corp. – #VIDEO #CorporatePresentation
April 5, 2017 – Zurich, Switzerland –
#Silver #Zinc #Lead #Exploration #Development near term #Production
http://www.europeangoldforum.org/egf17/company-webcast/AXU:US/
(AXU) (AXR) Alexco brand new Corporate Slide Presentation from the European Gold Forum that goes with the Video presentation above:
** Alexco’s Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Clynt Nauman said, “With the publication of the updated PEA incorporating the amended SPA, Alexco is launching into the balance of 2017 squarely focused on moving forward with underground access to the high grade Bermingham deposit in anticipation of extensive underground exploration drilling, as well as getting started on a +12,000 meter surface exploration program in areas proximal to the Bermingham discovery. Equipment rebuilds, mill, camp and infrastructure upgrades will also be completed alongside a prefeasibility level study, as we move Keno Hill back toward a final #production decision.”
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/alexco-reports-first-quarter-2017-results-621586163.html
In all the years I’ve listed to their CEO Clynton Nauman in interviews, I don’t remember him ever being as animated as he is about Bermingham (and the guy is not easily impressed). As a refresher of the statements he recently released:
“Alexco President and CEO, Clynton Nauman, commented, “The Amended SPA is an exceptional outcome for Alexco. Most importantly, it places the Keno Hill Silver District clearly on a path toward redevelopment and ultimately a production decision. Furthermore, we appreciate the endorsement of Silver Wheaton through its strategic shareholding in Alexco, an endorsement which we believe reflects confidence in a future of sustained silver production at Keno Hill as well as recognition of the proven exploration upside and highly prospective nature of the district.”
“We have long felt that Keno Hill is one of the most prospective #silver districts in the world, and the success Alexco has had with Flame & Moth and, more recently, Bermingham confirms our view,” said Randy Smallwood, President and Chief Executive Officer of Silver Wheaton. “We believe that the amendments we have made today will be mutually beneficial to both Silver Wheaton and our partner Alexco and will result in silver once again being mined from Keno Hill.”
Alexco Resource: Further Silver Exploration Before Production In 2018 At Keno Hill
ResourceCapitalAG – Apr 25, 2017
Interview with President & CEO Clynton Nauman
Matt,
what is your take here when Jorden says “where is gold going to go one the USD bounces? Seems a bit too easy of a call, but I guess he could be right. I’m just seeing the same “call” by too many TA folks out here. This Bull is NOT supposed to be that easy is it?
Who says it is in a bull?
Once the neckline on $SPX:$gold breaks, it will be destroy anyone clinging to the thesis that the market is about to top and that $gold is in a new bull. But it will come on massive move, probably a huge gap/spike upwards. 2016 was nothing more than a correction in a raging commodity bear market. Anyone who denies that at this point is likely sniffing glue.
The miners are in a bull and gold is in a bull relative to debt and currencies.
John Kaiser says we’re in a new bull market within the first 30 seconds of the following talk…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28qmAH2MMV8
Agreed Matthew, and most resource investors that have been through multiple cycles agree the Gold bear market ended in Dec of 2015 at the $1045.40 low. Even Jordan, who has been bearish lately, concedes that we are in a new Bull market, but we are consolidating the outsized moves from 2016.
Spanky – the better question is how is it a Bear market in Gold or the Miners when it’s been a Year and 1/2 since the Dec 2015 low in Gold, or the Jan 2016 low in the miners?
The only way we are still in a Bear market is if Gold takes out $1045.40. That seems dubious after 1 1/2 years, but anything is possible.
If that 2015 support is broken, then we can worry about being in a Bear market, but since the 2016 rally in the metals took out a number of key peaks and troughs and Moving Averages, that was the key that it was not just a counter-trend rally any more and was the end of the Bear.
The PM sector, in general, is in a consolidation triangle. There is either going to be a big move up or down, in the very near future. I’m betting on one direction 😉
I’ll see if I can find a public chart showing this …
On February 14, 2017 at 3:52 pm,
Excelsior says:
For a sector to mark a bottom requires terrible sentiment, in late 2015 you could tell it a number of ways. Frank Homes (Mr. Commodities) started an airline ETF waiting on the sector to recover, there were less resource sponsors and traffic on most of the main mining websites (including here at the KER), and mining conference attendances were down in the toilets. Very few except a few of the rogue contrarians here on the KER were even discussing buying mining stocks back in December 2015 tax loss selling season. If you remember, we were joking on this blog about “holding our noses and buying more Silver miners.” It was fairly grim.
Technically speaking, for it to be a bottoming pattern then the rally off of those lows needs to take out the recent prior peaks, and Gold and the miners absolutely delivered last year. Gold took out 3 higher peaks as well as the 2013 spike low, on massive volumes, and it paired up precisely with the lows and then move to record highs on the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index. (more on that in the next post)
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First let’s review the double bottom move down to $1445.40 that gold put in during mid to late December 2015. I had remained more reserved, because I had said since the rally in the first quarter of 2015 that I wanted to see the prior peak at $1346.80 (~$1347) taken out definitively on a closing basis. If you recall, the rally in early 2015 had fizzled out at $1307.80 and not made it past $1347. It was a bummer back in early 2015, and as a result, moving forward $1308 became first resistance, that had to be taken out to eclipse the rally from 2015. $1308 was referred to as “The Matterhorn”, (he mentioned $1309 in the article – same basic level). However, $1208-$1309 was significant, but to me it was only the first of several challenges Gold must overcome.
It was Dragonite that reminded us all of the major spike down trough to $1321.50 from the spring of 2013, which had started the several years of sideways to down consolidation. Upon going back and looking at that again, it became very clear that this $1321.50 was a severe downturn in 2013 and defining moment in the Gold Bear. There was even a show here on the KER where the speakers had postulated that $1321 was “The Bottom” way back then. The point was that for the Bull market to be back on then Gold absolutely needed to put in a close above $1321.50.
Well, look at the chart below of the past and what has happened this year and you’ll note that Gold took out $1307.80 (the Jan 2015 peak), $1321.50 (the 2013 spike down low trough, that did serious chart & sentiment damage), and Gold also took out $1346.80 (the next higher peak from the summer of 2014). When those levels ($1308/$1321/$1347) were taken out, then I was finally comfortable with the fact that it was not just a counter-trend rally, but in fact the beginning of the new bull in gold.
Lastly, when Gold spiked up to $1377.50 this summer, it also took out a lessor peak of $1361.80 (from the autumn of 2013). Typically the summer is more bearish for the metals, so for Gold to have taken out so many prior peaks was uncharacteristically bullish. We mentioned in discussions on here a few times that Gold had borrowed from the normal Fall rally by going so high into the summer, and that we’d have a dip down into November.
That’s exactly what we’ve seen play out thus far, and so far coming out of late Dec 2016 to early 2017 the metals have rallied a bit and technically made a “Higher Low”. Honestly, unless Gold goes all the way down and breaks below that $1045.40 Dec 2015 low, then in my opinion we are still in the new Gold bull market.
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*** Here is the Chart that goes with all those Gold peaks & troughs. It’s easier just to see it:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21742695491
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On February 14, 2017 at 3:53 pm,
Excelsior says:
Based on the Gold chart it sure looks to me like the Dec 2015 low of $1045.40 and the Dec 2016 low of $1124.30 form a “W-shaped Double bottom”. Also that $1045.40 formed a mini-double-bottom back in Dec 2015 to kick off that $1045.40 level as the lower low.
In addition, note how Gold blasted up through the 144 week EMA, 233 week EMA, and the 377 week EMA. In particular, Gold had sunk down through that 144 week EMA in 2013 and hadn’t broken back up through it until last year’s rally. That is pretty significant in my view.
Nothing moves in a straight line but gold is in an uptrend relative to the USDX and I expect that to continue despite any short term drama.
The better the bull, the more difficult it is to hang on.
GLD:UUP
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p46205855785&a=525941281
There’s nothing scary here…
Weekly GLD:UUP
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=13&id=p80799314902&a=525943740
2011-2015 in the gold miners:
http://www.wallpaperup.com/uploads/wallpapers/2014/03/14/298697/44fb35ff97730cb382acec1b452ea598.jpg
coming soon, don’t fight the bull!
Sorry I meant ONCE the USD bounces?
GCC getting absolutely hammered. The potential for stabilizing has been erased. The monthly chart stochastics are screaming that it is going to get slammed lower. Now whether that slam lower leads to final bottom is anyone’s guess. Based on the bullish setup in $usdjpy, I think we will more likely go to new lows on the commodity index.
Matt,
what is your take here when Jorden says “where is gold going to go once the USD bounces? Seems a bit too easy of a call, but I guess he could be right. I’m just seeing the same “call” by too many TA folks out here. This Bull is NOT supposed to be that easy is it?
BOMB goes off………in Former Prime Minister and Central Banker car …GREECE…..zh
wonder if this will shake up the fed’s buying……
It may provide a little more BANG for the BUCK…
Yellen might not want to go to GREECE…….
She may be a victim of Greece Lighting….
Grease – Greased Lightning…
good one………
CENTRAL BANKER no….1
Fund Name
Ticker
Reverse Split Ratio
BetaPro S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM ETF
HUV
1 for 2
BetaPro S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM 2x Daily Bull ETF
HVU
1 for 3
Just outta interest.
$BLK.AX Blackham Resources Limited on their Aussie listing
$0.315 +$0.065 (+26.00% gain) At close: 4:10PM AEST
Let’s see how $BKHRF opens up today.
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Share Trading Activity and Operations Update
26 May 2017
“Blackham reconfirms its #gold #production guidance of 40,000 to 45,000oz for FY17 being circa 8 months since first gold pour.
The successful results from the Preliminary Expansion Study aimed at growing gold production beyond 200,000ozpa was released on 8 May 2017. Blackham released exceptional #drilling results from the East and West lode drilling on 22 May 2017.”
http://blackhamresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Share-Trading-Activity_.pdf
There is a TLTFF press release out there if anyone can find it.
Whatever happened to “June brides?”