David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 29 Aug, 2017

Gold breakout and the USD breakdown – What it all means

The Junior Miner Junkie, David Erfle is with us today to discuss the breakout in gold and the continued weakness in the USD. It was interesting to see gold breakout on options expiration day yesterday. As for the dollar it dropped below 92 points. We are closely watching the weekly close this week to see if these breakouts/breakdown hold.

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  1. On August 29, 2017 at 11:06 am,
    CFS says:

    There is no free market in gold, even if its “price” is determined on the COMEX.

    Asian demand continues apace. That is what ultimately determines the direction of price, regardless of the machinations of the Fed., Goldman, etc.

  2. On August 29, 2017 at 11:11 am,
    CFS says:

    I agree with Mr. Erfle with regard to incipient inflation.

  3. On August 29, 2017 at 11:11 am,
    james says:

    The Bankers Have the Hammer ready Car-full !

    • On August 29, 2017 at 12:27 pm,
      Markedtofuture says:

      Holiday dressing before the long weekend. Its all about confidence.

      • On August 29, 2017 at 12:40 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        bankers are going to have a field day on the repos……..

        • On August 29, 2017 at 12:42 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          This will be a “Harry” situation…….

      • On August 29, 2017 at 2:09 pm,
        james says:

        Yes Car-ful !

  4. On August 29, 2017 at 11:16 am,
    CFS says:


    Osisko Mining Inc. has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters led by Canaccord Genuity Corp. to complete a two-tranche private placement financing, on a bought deal basis, of an aggregate of 7,402,000 common shares of the corporation that will qualify as flow-through shares for aggregate gross proceeds of $50,008,950. The first tranche will consist of 5,773,000 flow-through shares at an issue price of $6.93 per flow-through share for gross proceeds of $40,006,890. The second tranche will consist of 1,629,000 flow-through shares at an issue price of $6.14 per flow-through share for gross proceeds of $10,002,060.

    I do not understand the pricing of the second Tranche, CFS.

  5. On August 29, 2017 at 11:20 am,
    CFS says:
  6. On August 29, 2017 at 12:23 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Artemis Resources Ltd West Perth WA > The 2017 Pilbara Economic Development Conference August 29th

    Novo’s unloved JV partner should get bought out when the nugget farmers get moving.


  7. On August 29, 2017 at 12:29 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Looks like gold below $1307…….

    • On August 29, 2017 at 12:43 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      oops up again……..battling for survival……1308

  8. On August 29, 2017 at 12:38 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Platinum to glut the market, in a muddy mess and a pipe dream…….

  9. On August 29, 2017 at 12:42 pm,
    spanky says:
    • On August 29, 2017 at 1:09 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The metals closed down but the miners closed up. When the metals closed down a month ago, the miners closed way down.
      Gold has outperformed the miners by a wide margin all year but that leadership is now reversing.

      • On August 29, 2017 at 1:25 pm,
        spanky says:

        I agree, but I thought I would throw out some negative vibes just so that I can prevent myself from getting my hopes up. lol.

        • On August 29, 2017 at 1:50 pm,
          Matthew says:

          That’s the spirit!

      • On August 29, 2017 at 3:34 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        #Silver Roundup: Despite the Precious Metals roller-coaster in the afternoon, most Junior Silver miners still had a ~Green day:

        Ticker Symbol / Silver Stock Company Name / % Chg

        $ASL Argentum Silver Corp. +37.50%
        $SDRG Silver Dragon Resources Inc. +32.00%
        $DV Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +14.29%
        $KS Klondike Silver Corp. +12.50%
        $BBB Brixton Metals Corporation +12.33%
        $AZS.AX Azure Minerals Limited +11.11%
        $EXN Excellon Resources Inc. +10.65%
        $DEF Defiance Silver Corp. +8.57%
        $HOC.L Hochschild Mining PLC +7.30%
        $MMG Metallic Minerals Corp. +7.14%
        $SVG Silver Grail Resources Ltd. +6.67%
        $AZR Azarga Metals Corp. +5.88%
        $MYA Maya Gold and Silver Inc. +5.65%
        $SCZ Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +4.55%
        $PSL Prospero Silver Corp. +4.17%
        $SSV Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +4.05%
        $AUN Aurcana Corporation +3.70%
        $GRG Golden Arrow Resources Corporation +3.23%
        $IPT Impact Silver Corp. +2.82%
        $LVN Levon Resources Ltd. +2.63%
        $FRES.L Fresnillo PLC +2.59%
        $BHS Bayhorse Silver Inc. +2.56%
        $BTT Bitterroot Resources Ltd. +2.50%
        $BCM Bear Creek Mining Corporation +1.96%
        $SBR Silver Bear Resources Plc +1.92%
        $SVL.AX Silver Mines Limited +1.01%
        $SMT Sierra Metals Inc. +0.31%
        $ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +0.04%

  10. On August 29, 2017 at 12:52 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  11. On August 29, 2017 at 1:07 pm,
    Velma says:

    dollar is headed to 89. had the target last year.. early.

    • On August 29, 2017 at 1:35 pm,
      Velma says:

      Also, he’s correct with that 1500 call for gold. It’s heading to 1550 and silver will see $26. After that, a global deflationary bust is going to wipe out the stock market and the precious metals market. Silver would be back at five dollars and gold at $500. The S&P 500 is going to get obliterated. That will be the time to load up on precious metals as that will be the new sector that enjoys a bull run.

      • On August 29, 2017 at 1:42 pm,
        GH says:

        I’m more skeptical on this one…silver at $5!!!

        That could be a fun and profitable ride, if the world doesn’t fall apart en route.

        • On August 29, 2017 at 1:51 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Same here. That’s not gonna happen.

    • On August 29, 2017 at 1:40 pm,
      GH says:

      89 is my short term target, too.

      • On August 29, 2017 at 3:32 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I could see the dollar dip into the high 80’s, but the comment about Silver going down to $5 seems more unlikely.

  12. On August 29, 2017 at 1:12 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Bix, on glencore, mark rich, jpm,goldman, …………..

    • On August 29, 2017 at 1:22 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      For gold bugs…….start about the 10:00 min mark……

      • On August 29, 2017 at 1:27 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:
        • On August 29, 2017 at 1:29 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          More corruption in the MINING SECTOR……..herk and jerk……

        • On August 29, 2017 at 1:38 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          ◄ James 5 ►
          King James Bible
          Misuse of Riches
          1Go to now, ye rich men, weep and howl for your miseries that shall come upon you. 2Your riches are corrupted, and your garments are motheaten. 3Your gold and silver is cankered; and the rust of them shall be a witness against you, and shall eat your flesh as it were fire. Ye have heaped treasure together for the last days. 4Behold, the hire of the labourers who have reaped down your fields, which is of you kept back by fraud, crieth: and the cries of them which have reaped are entered into the ears of the Lord of sabaoth. 5Ye have lived in pleasure on the earth, and been wanton; ye have nourished your hearts, as in a day of slaughter. 6Ye have condemned and killed the just; and he doth not resist you.

  13. On August 29, 2017 at 1:45 pm,
    GH says:

    Off Topic:

    A large gathering of inconvenient facts about Lincoln, and the ‘Civil War’:


    • On August 29, 2017 at 1:53 pm,
      CFS says:

      Carte Blanche to political scum?


    • On August 29, 2017 at 3:06 pm,
      bonzo barzini says:

      Thanks for this wonderful article about the tyrant Lincoln. It agrees with E.A. Pollard’s “The Lost Cause.”

    • On August 29, 2017 at 4:22 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Good article GH. Thanks.

    • On August 30, 2017 at 1:05 pm,
      Matthew says:

      And that’s why the neocons on the right AND left love him.

  14. On August 29, 2017 at 1:45 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Total G-3 Central Bank Control

    There’s a lot of amazement and wonder at how the “stock market” can be up today with the devastating news out of Texas and the latest North Korean missile launch. Longtime readers of TFMR know exactly how this market levitation is accomplished so this post is designed as a public service in order to better educate and inform everyone else.


  15. On August 29, 2017 at 1:52 pm,
    GH says:

    Looks like the direct and indirect death toll in Iraq over the past 26 years is about 3.2 million. Possibly as many as 3 million in Afghanistan. Who are the violent fanatics??


    • On August 29, 2017 at 4:30 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      Valid points GH!

    • On August 29, 2017 at 4:35 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      The MIC……..has made a fortune…….along with the Bush, Clinton, and I am sure the Obamy made so cash out of it……
      Pentagon still missing $8.6 Trillion, I have mentioned this so much I am getting wore out.

  16. On August 29, 2017 at 2:25 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Debt (which includes the dollar) is going to fall versus gold for a long time.


    (I based the neckline on weekly closes.)

  17. On August 29, 2017 at 2:31 pm,
    Matthew says:

    XAU:GLD has again closed above the 233 day MA. The last time that happened was in February…


    • On August 29, 2017 at 4:16 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Miners are gradually starting to play catch up.

  18. On August 29, 2017 at 4:19 pm,
    Bill in Tokyo says:

    Excellent comments from David about base metals and inflation.

  19. On August 29, 2017 at 4:28 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    So the metals backed off and the dollar climbed. To be expected I think in light of whats happened in the precious 48 hours. Is this backfilling or an early reversal? I would like to think the former but who knows for sure.

    • On August 29, 2017 at 6:50 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed Ozibatla – some back-filling was in order after the move up in the Precious Metals the last 2 days, but unless the US Dollar really gets some legs and charges upwards with some oomph, then I only expect it to to drop down a bit. The debt ceiling issue will keep a bit of pressure on the greenback until later this fall, but it is pretty beat down at this point.

  20. On August 29, 2017 at 4:38 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Silver has struggled with the 200 day moving avg throughout this year and has now traced back towards it. Lets see if it can stay afloat above this area?

    • On August 29, 2017 at 6:58 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      It would be constructive to see Silver hold up, consolidate at support, and keep on trucking. Currently at $17.41 isn’t that bad of spot for Silver for many of the miners. Most of them are getting down in the $10-$16 All In Sustaining Cost level now, but there always additional costs that chew through more money than those number indicate, so I like to throw on an extra buck or two to factor that in. It will be even more constructive for companies in the $18-$20+ level, as they’ll really be making some cheddar at that level.

      I’ll split the difference, – Once we can get back to $19 Silver, then we can get out the party hats and streamers again. 🙂

      • On August 29, 2017 at 7:02 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        OK – How about at $19.43 -$19.43 for the year of the Steel penny.

        That actually has nothing to do with Silver, but can symbolize manufacturing growth and the industrial side of demand growth for Silver, (paired with it’s precious monetary nature). It’s just a fun target to shoot for by maybe first quarter 2018.

        There has to a definitive daily close above $19.43-$19.43 to break out the bubbly. 😮

  21. On August 29, 2017 at 7:39 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Those levels would be a step in the right direction but many have thought these sorts of prices were constructive in the past only to see them break down and silver to erase its gains into negative territory.

    Early 2014 price was $22oz. July last year price got above $21oz. We know what happened after that. Hence why I remain cautious until silver can break long term resistance that was formerly support in the bull market years: $26oz, give or take a few cents.

    Ultimately until that eventuates, I think silver (and gold by default) are still just making up ground from all the unwound damage dating back to 2013.

    Make no mistake though, these last two days have been promising. Hopefully the PMs can build a good base here and continue upwards.

    • On August 29, 2017 at 9:15 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      That’s a good point. 2013 was a dismal year in the PMs and that is where the chart damage really was inflicted across the sector. Yes, at $26 Silver the miners will be chugging right along, and I could see that 2 years out.

  22. On August 29, 2017 at 9:26 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Here’s Why Louise Yamada Says Gold’s Going To Break Out
    Sarah Benali – Tuesday August 29, 2017

    “What’s interesting about today’s action is that [gold]’s moving inversely to the [stock] market,” the managing director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors said.

    “If gold continues up here, it’s possible that we move more into a bit of a corrective trend in equities. There’s a lot here suggesting that equities are looking fragile under the surface and it would be logical to see equities pull back a little as we get a rally in gold.”

    However, the former Citigroup analyst isn’t giving up on gold just yet, noting that the metal is now “breaking out.”

    “I think that gold can go higher. It could possibly get to the next level at $1,380,” she said. “$1,400 would be key resistance because that goes all the way back to 2014.”


  23. On August 30, 2017 at 2:47 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    I think gold does abit of basing work here in the interim. If it does so in the low to mid 1300s, that would be a good result for gold. The 1370 mark is of great importance i believe. With continued positive unfluences, it could finish the year above this region but plenty of water to go under the bridge before then