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Is the investing narrative changing?

Cory
September 8, 2017

Over the past couple years we got so used to investors focusing on the US markets and ignoring metals and really everything else. Doc and I think this might be changing with the recent moves in metals across the board and the US dollar weakness. We assess the recent strength of gold and weigh in on if we think the move up will continue.

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Discussion
45 Comments
    Sep 08, 2017 08:07 AM

    Matthew, Doc, Excelsior, et al, Just sold some MRK@64.30 which I bought@9. Now I have some cash to invest. Do any of you own Auryn? I don’t but maybe I should…maybe I should wait for a crash in Sept. or October…

        Sep 08, 2017 08:20 AM

        Nice move…….

        Sep 08, 2017 08:23 AM

        It may have been in the 80’s. Or I may have gotten MRK when they bought SGP. Have to check.

          Sep 08, 2017 08:32 AM

          Do not worry , either way , nice long term gain…..

            Sep 08, 2017 08:17 PM

            I wish I’d sold MRK @95 in Jan. 2001 for a 10 bagger. 16 3/4 years later I got only 64.3 for a 7-bagger, not counting dividends. Must remember to sell NSRPF @ 95 if it gets there!

          Sep 08, 2017 08:55 PM

          It was in March 1990 that I bought the MRK.

            Sep 08, 2017 08:02 PM

            Looks like I guessed correctly…….. 🙂

      Sep 08, 2017 08:18 AM

      BB; not investment advice but I purchased some AUG about one week ago—just a little since I will wait to see if I can pick some up later for a lower price. Just a little uncomfortable with AUG because of the aggressive marketting of the stock. All it will take is some more negative news and the stock could break out of its’ range lower.

        Sep 08, 2017 08:54 AM

        Doc-
        What do you think of FSM?

          Sep 08, 2017 08:53 PM

          Fortuna is a very well run Mid-Tier Silver producer. Solid.

        Sep 08, 2017 08:07 PM

        Thanks, Doc. AUG has no reserves yet which bothers me if their drilling is not fruitful.
        Still it may be a fun gamble.

      Sep 08, 2017 08:30 AM

      Well I’ve been adding at these levels fwiw. Lots of drill results coming over the next few weeks and overhang from warrants that expire September 16 will be gone.

        Sep 08, 2017 08:57 PM

        Wolfster that makes sense to me, to play the drill results as a shorter term catalyst.

        Bonzo Barzini – I am clearly more of a shorter term trader compared to your approach if you are just now selling a stock you bought in 1990. I have no idea where Auryn will be trading in 27 years, but I believe (if they deliver on their drilling results this year) that they will be taken out in the next year or so for their assets in the ground. If you like the takeover company at that point in 2018 or 2019 then you roll with it, or you can use that potential liquidity event to exit your position.

        I’ve considered getting some ahead of their drill results, and then trimming most back if the news is good and just leaving a small core position in place for the ride.

          Sep 08, 2017 08:16 PM

          I have some XOM and RDS.A that I bought in 1980 for less than $2 a share and plan to never sell. I wish I’d put everything I had into XOM in 1980 and never done another trade. I’d be worth a lot more if I had and have a much higher income.

            Sep 09, 2017 09:40 AM

            That’s an interesting thought to consider. Yes “Hindsight is 20/20” as they say.

            Cheers!

      Sep 08, 2017 08:58 AM

      I do not own it or follow it but this looks like an ok time to buy at least part of a position. If gold takes a break here, it will most likely go lower.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AUG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p03450456942&a=539106087

    CFS
    Sep 08, 2017 08:09 AM

    I believe most of the rise in PMs this year was due to the fall in the US dollar.

    It is becoming clear to me that with China working hard at establishing a PetroYuan, that the dollar’s decline will continue.

    Not only that, but by making the PetroYuan convertible into gold, China is also accelerating the rise in value of gold.

      b
      Sep 08, 2017 08:01 AM

      Remember the credit card the Russians have come up with too.

      Russia’s top lender Sberbank says it will issue ten million Mir charge cards as part of the country’s NSPK national payment system.

      This is going to take alot of business away from visa and mastercard.

      It is interesting to watch an empire crumble

      Sep 08, 2017 08:30 PM

      The Euro & The Dollar $ next year?

      Nothing has yet changed. We are still 500 points away from the start of important resistance. Keep in mind that the ONLY way to break the bank of the monetary system will be a STRONG DOLLAR – not a weaker on. People far too often make a serious mistake and believe that a strong currency reflects a strong economy. Trump wants a lower dollar to reduce the trade deficit, increase sales of US products, and hence create more jobs.

      https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/the-euro-the-dollar/

    Sep 08, 2017 08:13 AM

    Race to the bottom……….Greg has a nice dollar chart …….
    https://usawatchdog.com/debt-deal-with-dems-what-does-trump-see-coming-dollar-dump-gold-pop/

    CFS
    Sep 08, 2017 08:15 AM

    Nothing moves in a straight line forever, but we are at end of Empire for the petrodollar.

    Macro- Analysis would dictate that capital should not be held in dollars, unless it is hedged.

    CFS
    Sep 08, 2017 08:22 AM

    “China will not want a strong Yuan” says Doc.

    But measure against what?
    I do not think China will care about the its Yuan looking strong against the US Dollar, as long as it is due to US Dollar dropping reative to other currencies. (Inflation coming to US?)
    Where is the US going to go for products?

    On the other hand, a stronger Yuan reduces Chinese raw material costs.

    Sep 08, 2017 08:43 AM

    Good thoughts here….the crux is feeling positive about gold stocks. I like the fact that the gold miners as a whole are “in the money” at these gold prices they are now real businesses which can add real value….and as long as gold continues to act as it is doing, the miners especially the high quality plays will get bid up.

    Sep 08, 2017 08:16 AM

    Uranium Miners Close To Very Bullish
    By Taki Tsaklanos of Investing Haven – Sunday, September 3, 2017

    http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/uranium-miners-close-to-very-bullish?post=147906

      CFS
      Sep 08, 2017 08:44 AM

      Maybe uranium will turn, but how soon?

      Some have not budged an inch.

        Sep 08, 2017 08:41 PM

        That’s the million dollar question all investors have about the Uranium space. When?

        My thesis moving forward is that Uranium has double-bottomed around $18 from last November and again this Spring, and so moving forward we’ll see spot prices gradually drift higher, but I don’t expect any fireworks until the longer term off-take agreements get negotiated in the $40s-$60s. That is what is necessary to start to move the needle on the Uranium space.

        Personally, I was ready for the worm to turn in 2016 and 2017, but have given up trying to figure it out. The half dozen Uranium miners I held onto have core positions that are fine at current levels, and if things really start to move I’ll give them more attention. There are another half dozen in cue that I’m ready to jump back into once there is a sea change. When I get fully deployed I’ll likely play my dirty dozen, and let it rip….

        In years past, a good time to position has been during tax loss selling, and then trimming them back during the spike up in the Q1 Run. That played out again this year and Nov-Feb was a profitable rally. When does the multi-year rally kick off? Nobody knows……

          Sep 08, 2017 08:10 PM

          Here was a good post from a contributor over at ceo:

          Onekey – “JAPAN: “While 43 other reactors remain offline, about 21 re-start applications are now pending with an estimated of 12 units to come back in service by 2025 and 18 by 2030”

          “If japanese restarts will take this long there is really no point in including them in the #uranium bull case if you ask me.”

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2017/09/08/japan-may-be-coming-full-circle-after-its-fukushima-nuclear-energy-disaster/#318deaec30e8

            Sep 08, 2017 08:16 PM

            As mentioned recently, there is far more to the underlying prices than Japanese restarts, (namely the negotiation of longer term off-take contracts). Also there is plenty of new build out of reactors planned in China, India, Turkey, UAE, Russian and the US.

            The big changes will be that the DOE has stopped dumping so much into the open markets, and if prices get back up into the $40s then the secondary market from underfeeding will scale back to make room for new production.

            The real change in the energy markets that we need to see is a change to the subsidies that renewable sources like Solar and Wind receive to keep them so propped up, and to move some of that over to the Nuclear Energy sector which can actually supply 24/7 base-load power whether there is wind or sun or not.

            Until the politicians, lobbyists, and uneducated masses quit impeding Nuclear, and propping up uneconomic Solar/Wind projects, then its hard to see the kind of change necessary to really get prices up in the profitable $60-$100 zone again.

            Sep 08, 2017 08:20 PM

            America’s Hidden Energy Crisis
            If Competitive Electricity is Such A Good Business, Why Are Companies Closing Power Plants, Taking Write-Downs, Seeking Bankruptcy Protection and Scrambling for the Exits?

            Richard Myers

            “It’s not just nuclear plants that are closing. Coal-fired power plants are closing down, too, and not just due to tighter environmental controls. So are gas-fired power plants, including relatively new, high-efficiency facilities. In fact, without subsidies and mandates, wind and solar facilities would probably be tanking, too.”

            https://politicsmeanspolitics.com/americas-hidden-energy-crisis-e0c6541281e8

    b
    Sep 08, 2017 08:14 PM

    The “risk on / risk off” dynamic that has dominated most markets since 2013 is coming to an end. From now on it may just be “risk off” without much relief. The illusion of low volatility, ample liquidity, and ever rising stock prices is over.

    The safe havens will be the euro, cash, gold and low-debt emerging markets such as Russia. The areas to avoid are U.S. stocks, China, South Korea and heavily indebted emerging markets.

    It looks like a volatile and bumpy fall ahead.

    Regards,

    Jim Rickards

    Tom
    Sep 08, 2017 08:34 PM

    Long LACDF…Terrific lithium play and PEMIF

      Sep 08, 2017 08:30 PM

      I’ve been a fan of Lithium Americas since they were Western Lithium. Great asset and one of the big 4 (SQM)as their 50/50 JV partner.

    Sep 08, 2017 08:02 PM

    Anyone here own DDC? Are you voting for the takeover@14.25 a share? I bought @2 in Jan of 2009 so I’ll have a 7-bagger plus dividends, but I’m sorry to have to sell out.

    Sep 08, 2017 08:31 PM

    The Four Fundamental Skills of All Investing
    Sep 8, 2017 by Morgan Housel

    1. The ability to distinguish “temporarily out of favor” from “wrong.”

    2. The willingness to adapt views you wish were permanent.

    3. The ability to be comfortable being miserable.

    4. The ability to distinguish when analytics vs. psychology is necessary.

    http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-four-fundamental-skills-of-all-investing/

    Sep 08, 2017 08:59 PM

    The surprising rationale behind a Million-Dollar bet on Silver
    Alex Rosenberg |Published 12 Hours Ago

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/09/07/the-surprising-rationale-behind-a-million-dollar-bet-on-silver.html

    Sep 08, 2017 08:33 PM

    Chart of The Day: Are we in for a correction in Copper?
    The Hedgeless Horseman – September 8, 2017

    “Copper looks to be breaking a lot of multi month trend lines today (bearish). We should know next week if this is a start of a real correction following the simply stunning rally since June of this year. Personally I would take some profits off the table, especially in the pure beta plays.”

    http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/chart-of-the-day/chart-day-correction-copper/

    Sep 08, 2017 08:08 PM

    $BBB $BXTMF Brixton Metals Discovers #Gold – #Silver Mineralization At The Chivas Zone And Drills 6.45M OF 4.86 G/T AUEQ AND 17.26M OF 2.62 G/T AUEQ
    September 7, 2017

    – Hole 142 intersected 6.45m of 4.86 g/t AuEq within 18m 1.83 g/t AuEq
    – Hole 143 intersected 8m of 4.01 g/t AuEq within 11m of 2.96 g/t AuEq
    – Hole 144 intersected 17.26m of 2.62 g/t AuEq within 52.00m of 0.87 g/t AuEq

    http://brixtonmetals.com/brixton-metals-discovers-gold-silver-mineralization-at-the-chivas-zone-and-drills-6-45m-of-4-86-gt-aueq-and-17-26m-of-2-62-gt-aueq/