Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Fri 8 Sep, 2017

Is the investing narrative changing?

Over the past couple years we got so used to investors focusing on the US markets and ignoring metals and really everything else. Doc and I think this might be changing with the recent moves in metals across the board and the US dollar weakness. We assess the recent strength of gold and weigh in on if we think the move up will continue.

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Comments:
  1. On September 8, 2017 at 9:07 am,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Matthew, Doc, Excelsior, et al, Just sold some MRK@64.30 which I bought@9. Now I have some cash to invest. Do any of you own Auryn? I don’t but maybe I should…maybe I should wait for a crash in Sept. or October…

      • On September 8, 2017 at 9:20 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Nice move…….

      • On September 8, 2017 at 9:23 am,
        bonzo barzini says:

        It may have been in the 80’s. Or I may have gotten MRK when they bought SGP. Have to check.

        • On September 8, 2017 at 9:32 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Do not worry , either way , nice long term gain…..

          • On September 8, 2017 at 12:17 pm,
            bonzo barzini says:

            I wish I’d sold MRK @95 in Jan. 2001 for a 10 bagger. 16 3/4 years later I got only 64.3 for a 7-bagger, not counting dividends. Must remember to sell NSRPF @ 95 if it gets there!

        • On September 8, 2017 at 2:55 pm,
          bonzo barzini says:

          It was in March 1990 that I bought the MRK.

          • On September 8, 2017 at 3:02 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Looks like I guessed correctly…….. 🙂

    • On September 8, 2017 at 10:18 am,
      PRICHARD/DOC says:

      BB; not investment advice but I purchased some AUG about one week ago—just a little since I will wait to see if I can pick some up later for a lower price. Just a little uncomfortable with AUG because of the aggressive marketting of the stock. All it will take is some more negative news and the stock could break out of its’ range lower.

      • On September 8, 2017 at 11:54 am,
        CaliJoe says:

        Doc-
        What do you think of FSM?

        • On September 8, 2017 at 4:53 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Fortuna is a very well run Mid-Tier Silver producer. Solid.

      • On September 8, 2017 at 12:07 pm,
        bonzo barzini says:

        Thanks, Doc. AUG has no reserves yet which bothers me if their drilling is not fruitful.
        Still it may be a fun gamble.

    • On September 8, 2017 at 10:30 am,
      Wolfster says:

      Well I’ve been adding at these levels fwiw. Lots of drill results coming over the next few weeks and overhang from warrants that expire September 16 will be gone.

      • On September 8, 2017 at 4:57 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Wolfster that makes sense to me, to play the drill results as a shorter term catalyst.

        Bonzo Barzini – I am clearly more of a shorter term trader compared to your approach if you are just now selling a stock you bought in 1990. I have no idea where Auryn will be trading in 27 years, but I believe (if they deliver on their drilling results this year) that they will be taken out in the next year or so for their assets in the ground. If you like the takeover company at that point in 2018 or 2019 then you roll with it, or you can use that potential liquidity event to exit your position.

        I’ve considered getting some ahead of their drill results, and then trimming most back if the news is good and just leaving a small core position in place for the ride.

        • On September 8, 2017 at 9:16 pm,
          bonzo barzini says:

          I have some XOM and RDS.A that I bought in 1980 for less than $2 a share and plan to never sell. I wish I’d put everything I had into XOM in 1980 and never done another trade. I’d be worth a lot more if I had and have a much higher income.

          • On September 9, 2017 at 9:40 am,
            Excelsior says:

            That’s an interesting thought to consider. Yes “Hindsight is 20/20” as they say.

            Cheers!

    • On September 8, 2017 at 11:58 am,
      Matthew says:

      I do not own it or follow it but this looks like an ok time to buy at least part of a position. If gold takes a break here, it will most likely go lower.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AUG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p03450456942&a=539106087

  2. On September 8, 2017 at 9:09 am,
    CFS says:

    I believe most of the rise in PMs this year was due to the fall in the US dollar.

    It is becoming clear to me that with China working hard at establishing a PetroYuan, that the dollar’s decline will continue.

    Not only that, but by making the PetroYuan convertible into gold, China is also accelerating the rise in value of gold.

    • On September 8, 2017 at 10:01 am,
      b says:

      Remember the credit card the Russians have come up with too.

      Russia’s top lender Sberbank says it will issue ten million Mir charge cards as part of the country’s NSPK national payment system.

      This is going to take alot of business away from visa and mastercard.

      It is interesting to watch an empire crumble

    • On September 8, 2017 at 1:30 pm,
      Markedtofuture says:

      The Euro & The Dollar $ next year?

      Nothing has yet changed. We are still 500 points away from the start of important resistance. Keep in mind that the ONLY way to break the bank of the monetary system will be a STRONG DOLLAR – not a weaker on. People far too often make a serious mistake and believe that a strong currency reflects a strong economy. Trump wants a lower dollar to reduce the trade deficit, increase sales of US products, and hence create more jobs.

      https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/the-euro-the-dollar/

  3. On September 8, 2017 at 9:13 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Race to the bottom……….Greg has a nice dollar chart …….
    https://usawatchdog.com/debt-deal-with-dems-what-does-trump-see-coming-dollar-dump-gold-pop/

  4. On September 8, 2017 at 9:15 am,
    CFS says:

    Nothing moves in a straight line forever, but we are at end of Empire for the petrodollar.

    Macro- Analysis would dictate that capital should not be held in dollars, unless it is hedged.

  5. On September 8, 2017 at 9:22 am,
    CFS says:

    “China will not want a strong Yuan” says Doc.

    But measure against what?
    I do not think China will care about the its Yuan looking strong against the US Dollar, as long as it is due to US Dollar dropping reative to other currencies. (Inflation coming to US?)
    Where is the US going to go for products?

    On the other hand, a stronger Yuan reduces Chinese raw material costs.

  6. On September 8, 2017 at 9:43 am,
    FundamentalAnalysis says:

    Good thoughts here….the crux is feeling positive about gold stocks. I like the fact that the gold miners as a whole are “in the money” at these gold prices they are now real businesses which can add real value….and as long as gold continues to act as it is doing, the miners especially the high quality plays will get bid up.

  7. On September 8, 2017 at 9:57 am,
    CFS says:
  8. On September 8, 2017 at 11:16 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Uranium Miners Close To Very Bullish
    By Taki Tsaklanos of Investing Haven – Sunday, September 3, 2017

    http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/uranium-miners-close-to-very-bullish?post=147906

    • On September 8, 2017 at 11:44 am,
      CFS says:

      Maybe uranium will turn, but how soon?

      Some have not budged an inch.

      • On September 8, 2017 at 4:41 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        That’s the million dollar question all investors have about the Uranium space. When?

        My thesis moving forward is that Uranium has double-bottomed around $18 from last November and again this Spring, and so moving forward we’ll see spot prices gradually drift higher, but I don’t expect any fireworks until the longer term off-take agreements get negotiated in the $40s-$60s. That is what is necessary to start to move the needle on the Uranium space.

        Personally, I was ready for the worm to turn in 2016 and 2017, but have given up trying to figure it out. The half dozen Uranium miners I held onto have core positions that are fine at current levels, and if things really start to move I’ll give them more attention. There are another half dozen in cue that I’m ready to jump back into once there is a sea change. When I get fully deployed I’ll likely play my dirty dozen, and let it rip….

        In years past, a good time to position has been during tax loss selling, and then trimming them back during the spike up in the Q1 Run. That played out again this year and Nov-Feb was a profitable rally. When does the multi-year rally kick off? Nobody knows……

        • On September 8, 2017 at 5:10 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Here was a good post from a contributor over at ceo:

          Onekey – “JAPAN: “While 43 other reactors remain offline, about 21 re-start applications are now pending with an estimated of 12 units to come back in service by 2025 and 18 by 2030”

          “If japanese restarts will take this long there is really no point in including them in the #uranium bull case if you ask me.”

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2017/09/08/japan-may-be-coming-full-circle-after-its-fukushima-nuclear-energy-disaster/#318deaec30e8

          • On September 8, 2017 at 5:16 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            As mentioned recently, there is far more to the underlying prices than Japanese restarts, (namely the negotiation of longer term off-take contracts). Also there is plenty of new build out of reactors planned in China, India, Turkey, UAE, Russian and the US.

            The big changes will be that the DOE has stopped dumping so much into the open markets, and if prices get back up into the $40s then the secondary market from underfeeding will scale back to make room for new production.

            The real change in the energy markets that we need to see is a change to the subsidies that renewable sources like Solar and Wind receive to keep them so propped up, and to move some of that over to the Nuclear Energy sector which can actually supply 24/7 base-load power whether there is wind or sun or not.

            Until the politicians, lobbyists, and uneducated masses quit impeding Nuclear, and propping up uneconomic Solar/Wind projects, then its hard to see the kind of change necessary to really get prices up in the profitable $60-$100 zone again.

          • On September 8, 2017 at 5:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            America’s Hidden Energy Crisis
            If Competitive Electricity is Such A Good Business, Why Are Companies Closing Power Plants, Taking Write-Downs, Seeking Bankruptcy Protection and Scrambling for the Exits?

            Richard Myers

            “It’s not just nuclear plants that are closing. Coal-fired power plants are closing down, too, and not just due to tighter environmental controls. So are gas-fired power plants, including relatively new, high-efficiency facilities. In fact, without subsidies and mandates, wind and solar facilities would probably be tanking, too.”

            https://politicsmeanspolitics.com/americas-hidden-energy-crisis-e0c6541281e8

  9. On September 8, 2017 at 12:14 pm,
    b says:

    The “risk on / risk off” dynamic that has dominated most markets since 2013 is coming to an end. From now on it may just be “risk off” without much relief. The illusion of low volatility, ample liquidity, and ever rising stock prices is over.

    The safe havens will be the euro, cash, gold and low-debt emerging markets such as Russia. The areas to avoid are U.S. stocks, China, South Korea and heavily indebted emerging markets.

    It looks like a volatile and bumpy fall ahead.

    Regards,

    Jim Rickards

  10. On September 8, 2017 at 12:34 pm,
    Tom says:

    Long LACDF…Terrific lithium play and PEMIF

    • On September 8, 2017 at 4:30 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’ve been a fan of Lithium Americas since they were Western Lithium. Great asset and one of the big 4 (SQM)as their 50/50 JV partner.

  11. On September 8, 2017 at 1:02 pm,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Anyone here own DDC? Are you voting for the takeover@14.25 a share? I bought @2 in Jan of 2009 so I’ll have a 7-bagger plus dividends, but I’m sorry to have to sell out.

  12. On September 8, 2017 at 4:31 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Four Fundamental Skills of All Investing
    Sep 8, 2017 by Morgan Housel

    1. The ability to distinguish “temporarily out of favor” from “wrong.”

    2. The willingness to adapt views you wish were permanent.

    3. The ability to be comfortable being miserable.

    4. The ability to distinguish when analytics vs. psychology is necessary.

    http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-four-fundamental-skills-of-all-investing/

  13. On September 8, 2017 at 4:59 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The surprising rationale behind a Million-Dollar bet on Silver
    Alex Rosenberg |Published 12 Hours Ago

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/09/07/the-surprising-rationale-behind-a-million-dollar-bet-on-silver.html

  14. On September 8, 2017 at 5:33 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Chart of The Day: Are we in for a correction in Copper?
    The Hedgeless Horseman – September 8, 2017

    “Copper looks to be breaking a lot of multi month trend lines today (bearish). We should know next week if this is a start of a real correction following the simply stunning rally since June of this year. Personally I would take some profits off the table, especially in the pure beta plays.”

    http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/chart-of-the-day/chart-day-correction-copper/

  15. On September 8, 2017 at 9:08 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    $BBB $BXTMF Brixton Metals Discovers #Gold – #Silver Mineralization At The Chivas Zone And Drills 6.45M OF 4.86 G/T AUEQ AND 17.26M OF 2.62 G/T AUEQ
    September 7, 2017

    – Hole 142 intersected 6.45m of 4.86 g/t AuEq within 18m 1.83 g/t AuEq
    – Hole 143 intersected 8m of 4.01 g/t AuEq within 11m of 2.96 g/t AuEq
    – Hole 144 intersected 17.26m of 2.62 g/t AuEq within 52.00m of 0.87 g/t AuEq

    http://brixtonmetals.com/brixton-metals-discovers-gold-silver-mineralization-at-the-chivas-zone-and-drills-6-45m-of-4-86-gt-aueq-and-17-26m-of-2-62-gt-aueq/