The Commodity Sector Is Historically Boring
To kick off today Doc and I look at the CRB index month chart. The bollinger bands are historically narrow. We are now watching which direction it breaks. We also look at the recent volume in the PM sector during this move down.
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Same old stuff……………
article says…….
Of course, just as Trump received his loudest applause from Washington for doing his best impersonation of his two predecessors, the President is already being praised for making a “grown up” decision when it comes to the Fed. While his awareness optics likely prevented him from ever truly considering reappointing Janet Yellen –—the preferred choice of the DC and NY — Powell’s nomination ensures that Trump’s scathing criticism of the monetary orthodox has been predictably discarded alongside a number of his most exciting campaign promises.
Now we will see how else Trump squanders his historic opportunity to rearrange the Fed.
Bitcoin is going to ‘Amazon’ the banks. Bitcoin is is a way to remove the third party from financial services. Just like Amazon to retail. Amazon comes in and they go direct to consumers. [This is going to be] the ‘bitcoining’ of the banks,” said Kelly.
Good no need for the FED>>>>>>>>
Con game………change………. 🙂
I don’t know what the new system will bring.
What I do know is what the old system has brought.
Breslow ends on with a darker tone still with a note to would-be sellers: it’s not a viable investment thesis to hope the boat sinks just because you failed to get on board.
Agreed, but sometimes hubris comes right before the fall…
historically, as in the last 40 or 50 years, commodities have lost value vs US equities, big time. We had a 10 period between 1998 and 2011 where commodities outperformed. But when you look at that action on a longer term chart you can see how insignificant that period really was in the prevailing, strong trend.
Robinhood: No more brokerage fees.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/08/investing/robinhood-baiju-bhatt-vlad-tenev-fresh-money/index.html
Did he ever think , the crap is no good……………lol
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-01/papa-johns-lashes-out-goodell-slams-nfl-debacle-tumbling-pizza-sales
could be pizzagate…………lol
Money going somewhere……….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-01/5s30s-curve-collapses-flattest-november-2007
General observation about bollinger bands, especially (20, 2) on the weekly and monthly charts:
When price rallies enough to touch the upper bollinger bands and then drop back below the 20 period MA, and you get 5 or more candles that fail to even touch the 20 period MA, price will invariably proceed to touch lower bollinger band before the 20 period MA is retested.
I can’t find any counter examples of the above scenario. And that is why I am so gloomy on certain stocks like EXK, AUY and GG monthly charts. After slamming into their upper bollinger bands in 2016, they all have fallen back below–and have failed to even touch–their 20 month MA for many months now (iirc all of them are 5+ months below the 20 month MA now). Based on what I have seen, they all have a due date with the lower BB before they will retest the 20 month MA.
If anyone has even a single counterexample they can point to, I would love to see it to ease my mind. Thanks.
Spankmeister:
184,444,674,374 came from somewhere.
???
Spankmeister:
That is the market cap of the Crypto’s.
Gotcha.
AUY monthly as an example:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AUY&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p46530092717&a=554122394&listNum=1
Actually GG never made it to the upper BB on the monthly, so it’s not a proper example of what I am talking about. AUY and EXK are though.
I actually found a charts where significant long term moving averages can stop a move to a lower BB. However, that doesn’t appear to be the case for AUY, EXK etc.
SIL’s underperformance vs SLV today speaks volumes for the weeks ahead.
Doc yesterday you were neg on precious metals to end of year and early 2018 now your saying CRB could break upper Bollinger band and precious metals could go up, wishy washy??
Paul, I believe that the CRB wouldn’t break above the upper BB this month (if it does anytime soon). Also, I believe the odds favor the PMs moving lower in November as well. I don’t see a bump in the PMs until mid-December or even into January. I hope that clarifies things.
Repost………….
As much attention is on Bitcoin,the real money to be made is the emerging Blockchain companies.
Zero Hedge still hasn’t caught on.
Catch the Wave………Hive is buzzing…….. 🙂
Btw……..Greg M……has some good info this morning………
Wolfster:
I don’t know.
I am more focused on the payment processors using the Blockchain.
The only reason I know about Hive is that I listened to an interview with their CEO.Mr. Pokrandt.
LTV.V this one has had a pretty good run.
PAY.TO This one has run to.
OSTK
I would let them come in.I plan on holding for at least three months.
Hive is interesting. Their partner Genesis is a powerhouse.
Hive is a”GPU” based miner. That means they are based on the Ethereum platform,and mine everything but Bitcoin.
For exposure to Bitcoin and the associated fork companies,Hive will not get you there.
Good thoughts………..appreciate the info……..
Bitcoin exposure from??? Got the hive already
For the record.
I think HIVE is a winner.
Buy into weakness.
Sell into Strength.
Rinse and repeat.
On November 1, 2017 at 9:06 am,
JohnK says:
Wolfster:
I don’t know.
I am more focused on the payment processors using the Blockchain.
The only reason I know about Hive is that I listened to an interview with their CEO.Mr. Pokrandt.
Any publicly traded payment processors???
On November 1, 2017 at 10:18 am,
JohnK says:
LTV.V this one has had a pretty good run.
PAY.TO This one has run to.
OSTK
I would let them come in.I plan on holding for at least three months.
Thanks. Appreciate the input.
john k, whats your opinion on hive?
multimillion $ mining venture, crypto mining that is.
Thx for any comment.
b:
I had not even finished typing. At this point,we are so early. This is a lot like the pot stocks.
For me I would go with the shotgun approach and see what sticks.
Which ever company evolves as the “winner” ,One winner will cover 10 losers.
Dick Tracy is another who has been all over the Blockchain companies.
I would ask him as well as CFS.
thx John
Just fyi, in Canada there are only 4 maybe 5 potstocks I consider.
Countless # in the states I hear.
b:
Let’s see your Pot stock picks.I was to jaded to buy any. My loss.
Isn’t it funny 20 years after I quit smoking Pot,all I see on the internet investing sites are pictures of Green Bud.
Canopy growth is the one to own hands down
I was always hoping to buy pot legally.
Havnt smoked for years but I will buy a joint and smoke it when the day comes.
Just might have a taste of my favorite whiskey with it.
cdn pot stocks “weed” of course, the big one.(canopy growth)
acb
aph
emc
abcn
There are companies trying to get licensed but I dont keep up with them.
All these guy are going to sell 100% of their product if they are not already.
I havnt checked the financials on my list, might matter, no idea.
Recreational use is where the $ will be at.
wolfster, check the growing space of aurora. acb
Yes aurora would be 2nd on my list. I’ve learned that the definite money is made by buying the leader. After that a lot of times it’s like throwing darts with all the johnny come lately players
Wolf, they are all going to be profitable companies.
What I like about aurora is the space they have to grow, its the largest out there.
If I had a critisim it would be they have plans/connections to sell in Europe and the U.S., I just dont see a need, they wont be able to grow enough to supply demand just from Canada.
I do agree with you concerning Weed. They get the market mention just about every day now, same time the reports mention oil,gold etc.
I’m flying to BCN at this moment.
Couple of days there and then sailing for a while.
Here is one Bill posted.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WEED.TO
They just did a deal with someone, I forget, but that is driving the share price up.
Wolfster could very well be right., “weed” might be the no brainer
Don’t remember who but an alcohol company bought in at around $14
I just took a $4500 gain on it at 16.40 missing $17 spike. Tsx companies for that sector are: weed and acb only I believe.
AXU’s daily candle (so far) not auspicious at all.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25446290266&a=554123415&listNum=1
Interesting chart from Kimble Charting: Copper/gold ratio: https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/2017/11/doc-coppergold-ratio-breaking-10-year-support/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Doc+Copper%2FGold+ratio+breaking+10-year+support&utm_campaign=Daily+Kimble+Blog+Posts+RSS
Here’s one for the bulls I guess. Too good to be true?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p08076372740&a=554126700&listNum=1
Doc, do you still see gold testing 1220-1250 and silver 16.00-16.50 or is this pretty much the bottom in your mind? As far as uranium, in the past in think you used UUUU as a vehicle, is there a better one?
Pardu, I still see gold testing 1220-1250 and it could happen this month. I fell UEC is a good indicator for uranium.
UUUU and UEC are both solid companies in the Uranium sector, and both should have some legs when prices get moving. When that happens is anyone’s guess.
I’d say UUUU has the advantage of being both a current hard rock and In-situ Uranium miner and is the largest US company. It also has longer term off-take agreements in the high 40’s and low 50’s good through 2019. It will do great when the pricing finally starts to cooperate, but it also has such a large land package and so many assets on hold that if the metals prices don’t recover in a year or two then they’ll have more risk exposure.
It’s an obvious show of strength that gold has had such a hard time even making it to the 200 day MA at 1260…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p53829837964&a=550333302
I’ll send you an autographed picture if you are right. Let me know which one strikes you.
Deal. I’ll go with this one…
http://24.media.tumblr.com/e669cfc76479f42a23f63c724bd0d01c/tumblr_mifj4miafi1ru37x6o1_500.gif
funny.
+1
Here is a “Flyer” I just started a position in.
YD is a company that is going to be using the blockchain to manage virtual reality content,consumption,distribution and digital rights management.
The stock may have just completed a “double bottom”
Perhaps the Spankmeister could tell me more about the black candle at the top.
Do your own DD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YD.V
Just curious as to whether any of the old Claude Resources investors have grabbed shares in that teams new venture GFG Resources? Tickers (GFG) (GFGSF)
Check out the management team. It’s like Claude 2.0 🙂
https://www.gfgresources.com/about-us/management-team/default.aspx
Stephen de Jong the prior CEO of Integra is also on their board.
Seems like a solid team, but I have not delved into their assets yet. Just curious as to whether anyone else had them on their radars?
I just remember that there were a large # of shareholders following Claude here in the past?
You might want to wait to accumlate shares. GFG.V is headed for 20cts. a share.
duly noted Doc. I just like that ex-Claude management team and was always impressed with Stephen de Jong from Integra.
I’ll be waiting to accumulate GFG once it corrects downwards for a speculative punt that they’ll put together the right kinds of projects to be successful once again.
whoa I just checked the price action and $.20 cts a share would be a big drop from where things are today at $.57.
Do you base that projection on the weekly charts? Is there some indicator or moving average you are watching to generate that call?
GFG is already down around 65% from it’s highs at $1.70 so dropping down that far puts it at an 88% retracement. That would be wild, but I agree accumulating there would be a fantastic accumulation spot.
Thanks,
(GFG) GFG Resources: Main Takeaways From Call With Management
The Hedgeless Horseman – November 1, 2017
http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/gold-silver-stocks/gfg-resources-takeaways-call-management/
from the Hedgeless Horseman editorial above:
Website: https://www.gfgresources.com/Home/default.aspx
Stock Ticker: GFG
Shares Outstanding: 50.3 Million
Shares Outstanding (fully diluted): 53.0 Million
Market Cap (fully diluted @ C$0.57): C$30 (US$23 Million)
Insider Ownership: 14%
Institutional Investors: Zebra Holdings, US Global, Sentry, Machenzie & AGF.
Cash: US$4.0 Million (June 30)
* My bullet points from the call with CEO Brian Skanderbeg and VP Marc Lepage:
– Next batch of drill results expected very soon. (Hopefully ahead of Zurich which GFG and I will attend)
– News release will contain Brownfield Targets.
– Some Greenfield drilling is complete.
– Looking to raise money in Q4 or Q1 2018.
– The 114m drill intercept in the latest news release hit mostly oxides.
– Finding sub horizontal continuity/connection between zones that was a positive surprise.
– Somewhat adjusting the drill campaign in light of that.
– Looking for additional projects to hopefully enable an even more continuous/steady news flow.
– They understand the market is tough and preserved some cash to prolong the time window for potential funding.
– Cowboy target is looking better than expected.
– Mineralization characteristics are similar to Cripple Creek and the Wharf Mine, with high grade zones and lower grade halos.
I took an 11k gain on XOP but it exploded up with oil barely up and missed another 7 or 8k. Oil is lower than than the 4 pm close yesterday and xop is up today 2 to 3%.
At least the Oil Jrs are starting to move, so that bodes well for the energy sector.
I have started buying URA – uranium etf. Sold off pretty much everything now as market just keeps going up for no reason.
I hovered my mouse over the buy button on 3 different Uranium miners this morning, but ultimately opted to wait. When I pulled up their charts, it looks like a bit more pain may be in store still, but later in the month or in December I’m going to be adding to a number of beat up Uranium miners.
I would agree with that—that’s my plan as well.
Here’s a good article out on Cameco today from Goldfinger.
A Contrarian’s Dream in Cameco
by @Goldfinger on November 1, 2017
For clarity, Cameco was NOT one of the stocks I was considering today as it is too larger and clunky for my tastes, but it is a bellweather for the Uranium sector as the largest producer. It’s funny because it would be like everyone running out to buy Barrick or Gold Corp to get exposure to gold miners. Sure, they are big and on people’s radars, but they are rarely the best performers.
Personally, I just don’t like their tax problems, underground water issues, or the TEPCO longer term off-take agreement that has been disputed and is in arbitration until the end of next year or possibly early 2019.
___________________________________________
Having said that, many investors don’t take the time to really research the Uranium miners and so they just go for the biggest. In my opinion, if they want exposure to Cameco and Nexgen and don’t know much about the rest the ETF (URA) is a good way to get exposure to the sector where it is really weighted heavily towards those 2 names.
After following the Uranium business for 8 years, I believe many of the higher torque small US Producers / Developers, and some of the lessor followed Canadian Explorers in the Athabasca Basin represent more attractive upside potential.
There are even a few Australian and African projects that have interesting leverage for when the Uranium spot price recovers.
I find most Canadians won’t even look at the US, Australian, European, or African companies though, due to Canadian bias.
So often in interview you hear rubbish like there are only 3-5 Uranium miners, or 20 uranium miners, etc… My list is around 60 at this point and just like with PMs it is many of the nano-cap Jrs that will do the big out-performance when the worm turns, but there are junk stocks in that list as well.
Anyways, I like to see what investors think of Cameco just because it tends to follow sentiment, and that Goldfinger article above has a nice chart of the technical set up. However, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Cameco put in a lower low before this is all over.
Here is what I have for Crypto Blockchain.
HIVE.V
BLOC.V
BTL.V
LTV.V
PAY.TO
NTQ.V
FTEC.V
GBTC
OSTK
CSE:CODE
OTC:BTCS
OTC:BITCF
OTC:GAHC
OTC:HSHS
BIOP
GCAP
OTC:CINGF
OTC:CCTL
TESS
C.IDK
C.APP
YD.V
Thanks, JohnK
GH:
LTV.V Just did a company requested halt. News pending.
This should be fun.
What happen………..maybe………Iran nuked em………. lol
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-01/iran-preparing-infrastructure-bitcoin-adoption
JohnK,
Here are few more to add to the list DM, GET, NC.
Here is another. I just found out about it.It was the #1 Volume gainer on the Venture today.
ID.V
Blockchain supported Security Technology for it’s Industry leading Delivery Trust E-Mail.
164% gainer today.
Thanks Shad:
I have been busy. GET.C is going to be a rewards based Crypto.
I don’t know how to get access to the .C exchange.
Any help?
Interactive Brokers is the best way to access different markets. There may be other platforms that work.
I just hear a lot of chatter about it over at ceo:
Another one on that index that’s been on a tear: (BOT.CN)
Alex Tapscott’s Crypto VC Firm Going Public With $100M CAD Falsely Touted 4 Blockchain Stars As Advisors
Laura Shin , FORBES STAFF – NOV 1, 2017
Congratulations Jerry. You finally made it.
https://www.rockwell-center.org/2015site/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/dinosaur_parade.jpg
…… ok so I am a little slow……….. 🙂
Oh, John…………here is a new one for ya………….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-01/amazon-registers-crypto-ethereum-domains-rumors-swirl-it-may-soon-accept-bitcoin
Don’t forget CFS.Another one of K.E Finest Fools.
THE COMMODITY SECTOR IS HISTORICALLY BORING
Is this a bullish indicator?
That would depend as to what commodity you are talking about.
Cobalt’s 115% move this year doesn’t qualify as boring. Or does it?
Not boring at all but the broad mass of the public really isn’t paying attention either are they?
Early for Doc………must be having sleepless leg syndrome …… 🙂