John Kaiser Exclusive – Tue 7 Nov, 2017

Some PM Stories That Are Moving

John Kaiser joins met today to recap the overall PM stock sector and look at a couple stories that are moving. As usual the companies that operate in the north are seeing some selling pressure due to the lack of news over the winter when projects are not accessible. We also recap the recent Novo news updating the trenching.

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Comments:
  1. On November 7, 2017 at 2:22 pm,
    David says:

    Makes me wonder about Garabaldi and Metallium as Eric Sprott invested in both as late as Oct 27th in Garabaldi. Sprott also made positive comments at the Jeckyl Island Conference. Possibly he has more resource knowledge than has been published.

  2. On November 7, 2017 at 5:14 pm,
    confused says:

    Sprott might also have access a few seasoned geologists too;)

    • On November 7, 2017 at 5:49 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed. Sprott was wise taking stakes in Excellon, Jaguar, and Metanor as well.

      • On November 7, 2017 at 6:10 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        The great part of investing in inefficient mining stocks is that great geological assets properties can remain priced too high or too low. Right now many are too low, and large investors like Sprott do often have access to sharp geologists to run ideas by.

        In addition, they can also go on site-visits and they often they travel in networking circles where they know the teams and management involved. Eric seems like he has quite a bit of general knowledge though about which deposits have exploration potential, and economic tailwinds to improve the situation into production.

        • On November 8, 2017 at 6:44 am,
          Excelsior says:

          speaking of Sprott…..

          _________________________________________________________________

          TA is Bullshit
          by @Goldfinger on November 8, 2017

          “I found Eric Sprott’s presentation at Jekyll Island to be quite entertaining and instructive. Someone shared it with me yesterday, adding that “you need to hear what he says about TA….” So I watched the entire thing. ”

          “Fairly early on in the talk he mentions technical analysis and throws out a one liner “TA is bullshit.” I found this to be interesting because in the same hour long presentation he uses TA on a few occasions including stating that a stock was “in a very nice uptrend.” So I guess he can’t think TA is bullshit all the time.

          What is technical analysis? According to Wikipedia it is “an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.”

          I would offer a simpler answer than Wikipedia; technical analysis is the study of market price behavior (including volume), usually through charts. This study of price behavior can include many aspects including sentiment, market participant positioning, and even attempts to make forecasts about future price behavior. However, TA is most effectively utilized in managing risk, understanding broader trends, and identifying incongruencies between a “company’s story” and market price action.

          So why does a highly successful investor like Eric Sprott think that TA is bullshit? My answer would be that he simply doesn’t understand it and/or doesn’t use it very often in his investing. And that’s ok. What he does clearly works for him, and he has access to tools and information that 99.9% of investors do NOT….”

          https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/ta-is-bullshit

          • On November 8, 2017 at 7:26 am,
            Matthew says:

            So Sprott thinks that fundamentals and investor sentiment are bullshit? He must since that’s what gives us the investors’ actions/herd behavior that give us our charts. His stance also implies that “it is often different this time” but I doubt that he realizes it.

            Or, could it be that he’s being disingenuous and actually employs some of the best chartists around?

          • On November 8, 2017 at 8:09 am,
            confused says:

            Sprott also has some of the best TA folks in the world working for him in Toronto. He might have made his comments tongue-in-cheek….as NO TA can predict grade mineralization.

          • On November 8, 2017 at 8:35 am,
            Excelsior says:

            It’s been in vogue to tear down chartists and TA for a long time. Like anything in life, people that are the most against something, usually understand it the least, and have wildly inaccurate perceptions or opinions.

            There are people in each industry that think pricing in sectors like Oil, or Biotech, or Pot Stocks, or Cryptos etc…. are only controlled by fundamentals which is ridiculous. It is no different in the metals. When moves happen that make sense technically, then the bobble heads on financial outlets scramble to figure out what narrative fits the move up/down (that was going to happen anyway).

            For example, over at ceo.ca most of the geos, engineers, finance guys, and company representatives that don’t understand how technical analysis works think it is all just squiggly lines on a page. They love to scoff at it, but I find it so humorous that their fundament pronouncements aren’t often worth a hill of beans, and stocks that they trash fundamentally often trounce the returns of their pet projects, and stocks that they feel so confident in often pull back to normal support levels or turn down at resistance, so they scream manipulation or just sit around scratching their heads and hind ends. 🙂

            It is hilarious to me that quite often those same people, that haven’t invested even 5 minutes into understanding even the basic tenants of price action and volume, will say things repeatedly like “Well, the news was good today but the stock sold off – why? …. or or why is that stock going up without any news – makes no sense?”

            I want to scream “It’s called price action Einstein, and if you had bothered to look at even basic TA on a chart then you’d wouldn’t be surprised at all”.

            It’s not worth the time though, because “A man convinced against his will, remains an unbeliever still.”
            ___________________________________________________________________

            Some people have limiting belief systems, and in their mind the only thing that can move Gold or Oil or a stock is fundamental news. They are of course dead wrong, but if that is how they want to view things then they can stay in the dark.

            Personally I feel fundamental news (like drill results, or today with Tinka and their resource doubling) CAN absolutely move a sector or stock, but ultimately price action and support/resistance levels are what guides the reaction, volume, and sentiment around said news.

            * Tinka is a good example of how both technical and fundamental data are both important: Last week, I noted on ceo that technically Tinka was getting ready for a breakout, and then when the pricing moved higher above recent peaks, I agreed with other technicians there that Tinka was breaking out. This was before they halted their stock or put out today’s news. So the breakout was ALREADY set to happen Technically, and the Fundamental news just gave investors the courage to buy more, when that was going to happen anyway based on the charts.

            _________________________________________________________________________

            Goldfinger went on in that article to make a few points that I resonated with:

            “I will also add that I’m perfectly happy to hear that other investors think that TA is bullshit because it means that fewer of us are doing similar things, which creates a better opportunity for an edge. If everyone is looking at the exact same information, and the same charts with the same interpretations then you can be sure than none of us are going to make money. ”

            “I have said it before and i’ll say it again; I use any information that I find to be useful in making investment decisions (both fundamental and technical), however, I am completely comfortable making a decision solely on technical (chart based) factors while I would never make an investment decision solely on fundamental factors (without looking at the chart). That’s the best way I can explain how I integrate both fundamental and technical analysis.”

            ________________________________________________________________

            As for Sprott, I think he is more a fundamentals guy, and buys into a thesis on a company if it makes sense to him logically. I believe David Erfle is the same way, and there are investors here that are the same way, and that is fine.

            The problem arises from the fact the markets are inefficient by nature, and most often the moves in Gold or Oil or Pot Stocks or Cryptos or Biotech or whatever are NOT logical. As the saying goes:

            “The markets stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

            Using Technical Analysis as another tool to project where price may extend to before turning back down, or where support may come in for a bounce is just as valuable a tool for placing buy or sell orders, as the news-flow (often much better)

            For people getting in on Private Placements with obscene amounts of warrants like Sprott, or Rick Rule, or Frank Holmes, then they don’t really need to be right technically as they get sweetheart deals and have inside info in their network long before retail investors get clued in on opportunities or challenges.

            TA just helps retail investors have a fighting chance of making good returns (and quite often help them make better returns for those that have the eyes to see it).

          • On November 8, 2017 at 2:15 pm,
            GH says:

            I’m with Goldfinger–I don’t mind a bit if most market participants think TA is nonsense.

            I assume Sprott is an extremely talented man, but he sure didn’t seem to have a clue about the precious metals bear. I haven’t checked his opinion for years.

  3. On November 7, 2017 at 5:48 pm,
    Excelsior says:
  4. On November 8, 2017 at 6:01 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (TK) (TKRFF) Tinka more than doubles inferred mineral resources at Ayawilca: 42.7 million tonnes grading 7.3 % zinc equiv., & 10.5 million tonnes grading 0.70 % tin equiv.

    by @newswire on November 8, 2017

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/tinka-more-than-doubles-inferred-mineral-resources

  5. On November 8, 2017 at 6:06 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (NIM) (HUSIF) Nicola Mining Inc. Enters Into Gold Profit Share Agreement With AMA Gold Exploration Ltd.
    by @nasdaq on November 8, 2017

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/nicola-mining-inc-enters-into-gold-profit-share-agreement

  6. On November 8, 2017 at 6:51 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold at $1286 and starting to break out. We are well above the $1281.80 target that Gary Wagner put out as overhead resistance on his weekend show, and Gold never broke below $1262.60 so it looks pretty constructive.

    Silver back up over $17 again at $17.12.

    It would be nice if a good ole’ fashioned short squeeze pushed things even higher in the near term.

    • On November 8, 2017 at 6:57 am,
      Wolfster says:

      More importantly is the doubling of tinkas resource estimate

  7. On November 8, 2017 at 7:34 am,
    Matthew says:

    It’s do or die time and the bulls appear to have the edge:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p89943381333&a=555571295

  8. On November 8, 2017 at 8:06 am,
    Matthew says:
  9. On November 8, 2017 at 8:10 am,
    Matthew says:
  10. On November 8, 2017 at 8:17 am,
    Matthew says:
  11. On November 8, 2017 at 8:47 am,
    Matthew says: