Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Tue 12 Dec, 2017

CoT Reports Are Showing Signs Of Light For PMs

Commercial traders have held an extreme short position in precious metals for years now. However after the last CoT report they are starting to unwind these positions. Decreasing their net short by over 10% just last week could be a sign of change moving forward. While this is only a one week move if it continues to year end we could have some more encouraging price action sooner than Doc and I think.

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Comments:
  1. On December 12, 2017 at 7:32 am,
    CFS says:

    There is clearly little available physical on the COMEX because of the transference to London for physical. But London has to run out before the prices will go up.

  2. On December 12, 2017 at 8:00 am,
    CFS says:
  3. On December 12, 2017 at 8:09 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Keith Barron Wants to Mine U3O8 Cheep

    Bob Moriarty – Dec 12, 2017

    “The garimpeiro miners in Brazil can’t spell either. All they know how to do is to mine at a profit. Unlike professionally run mining companies, they mine until they fail to make a profit. Then they stop. All garimpeiros mine at a profit. It’s a lesson the professionals should learn.”

    “Over the past 16 years of traveling and looking at mining projects, I invented my own definition of mining. I like it; it’s simple and covers everything you need to know.”

    > “Mining is the art and science of extracting minerals from the ground at a profit.”

    “What I have observed in visiting hundreds of properties is that (1) the level of formal education is far higher than in any other field I am familiar and (2) most geos think that mining is the art and science of spending money. Rarely does the word profit get mentioned or exist and finally (3) most of the people in the mining business should have taken a semester off during their studies to work at a 7-11. It would do wonders for their overall education if they actually understood how to sell a quart of milk at a profit.” — Bob Moriarty

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty121217.html

    • On December 12, 2017 at 9:30 am,
      b says:

      Thats actually funny.
      Reminds me of O Leary saying he wouldnt touch a jr gold miner with a ten foot pole.
      something like that.
      worst business managers on the planet he says.
      Not understanding profit surely puts them in the “dum sh$t” catagory.

      I wonder how many hundreds or thousands of attempts it takes to get a profitable mine going?

      • On December 12, 2017 at 11:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I chuckled at the line ” most geos think that mining is the art and science of spending money. Rarely does the word profit get mentioned or exist.” He’s spot on!

  4. On December 12, 2017 at 8:25 am,
    CFS says:
  5. On December 12, 2017 at 9:24 am,
    b says:

    Gold News Digest
    Tuesday 12 December 2017

    Hedge funds cut bullish bets by most on record
    Gold price under renewed pressure as managed money speculators up shorts – bets that gold can be bought back at a lower price in future – three-fold.

  6. On December 12, 2017 at 9:53 am,
    Robert Moriarty says:

    Guys: It is not the action of the commercials that drive the market. It is the action of the speculators. They are the bettors at the craps table, and they alone determine price direction. The commercials are neutral as the dealers are in Vegas. They will take any bet.

    When the speculators finally panic, it will be time to jump in. If you want to know the day, sign up for the DSI http://trade-futures.com

    We have a 150-250% move higher coming shortly in the share indexes.

    • On December 12, 2017 at 10:35 am,
      CaliJoe says:

      Bob,
      You sir, maybe right. If everyone is waiting for a big flush to drop prices, it probably won’t happen.

      • On December 12, 2017 at 11:07 am,
        Silverdollar says:

        Have been thinking the same thing. Seems like everyone is expecting January to repeat the past two years…….

        • On December 12, 2017 at 4:54 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          In both mid to late December of 2015 and 2016 the PMs put in a bottom right near the
          Fed Rate hikes. And here we are again…. about to put in the lows right near the fedbabble….

          ______________________________________________

          FED MEETING — What you need to know in markets on Wednesday

          Myles Udland – Yahoo Finance – December 12, 2017

          “Perhaps the final major market catalyst of the year is set to come to markets on Wednesday.”

          “At 2:00 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve will announce its final monetary policy decision of the year, and markets expect the central bank to raise interest rates for the third time this year.”

          “The Fed should push the target range for its benchmark interest up higher by 0.25%, to a new corridor of 1.25%-1.50%, pegging the Effective Fed Funds rate at 1.37% which would be the highest since October 2008.”

          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-meeting-need-know-markets-wednesday-232217103.html

          • On December 12, 2017 at 4:56 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            January and February are seasonally some of the stronger months for the precious metals miners. I’ve been adding to many miners since before Thanksgiving until today. As far as the Precious Metals go, I’m pretty much fully allocated, although if there is a nice Q1 Run then I’d like to reshuffle a few of my holdings into different names.

          • On December 12, 2017 at 4:58 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Clearly some of the carnage in PM stocks from Nov to Dec is tax loss selling as well, but most of that should be over at this point, and some investors have started buying into the weakness in prices.

          • On December 12, 2017 at 5:04 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I expect to see most of the weakness subside in the precious metals miners by next week, and for a rally from new buyers to enter the market by month’s end.

            It is unknown this year how much speculative money may have flowed into the crypto space versus the miners, but there should be enough money parked on the sidelines ready to come back into this tiny sector to provide a tradable rally.

            If metals don’t bounce but continue down in Q1 then it will hurt sentiment bad in the sector and at that point we’d likely have a final washout, but really, most PM mining investors are pretty bearish to bummed already.

            Good luck to all in their investments, moving into year end.

  7. On December 12, 2017 at 11:08 am,
    Robert Moriarty says:

    CJ:

    I don’t think that many see it coming. Certainly we are starting to see panic in the speculators. The more they panic, the bigger the move higher will be. I think we are looking a low for gold and silver within the next two weeks. The indexes any time.

    • On December 12, 2017 at 11:59 am,
      CaliJoe says:

      Bob:
      I have to agree. Stochastics are grossly oversold but one indicator I’m watching is the volumes spike for large miners eg ABX, GG, Ag, PAAS – I believe its a sign of capitulation when major turn occurs.

      • On December 12, 2017 at 4:49 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        CalieJoe – that is wise as volume spikes across the sector can be a helpful signal.

        Watching for chart indicators like the Stochastics, RSI, Trix, are helpful for spotting the turn, and then watching the MACD for a delayed confirmation. Another thing to watch is weekly and then drilling down daily candlesticks for a reversal pattern. Fib retracement levels are also another good tool in the bag for spotting a low point in that zone.

        Sentiment readings are also key indicators to watch.

  8. On December 12, 2017 at 11:21 am,
    b says:

    How many are left in to panic?
    Maybe shares drop, maybe some shares do.
    What I see is shares that are refusing to drop much further.

    WhaddoInotho?

  9. On December 12, 2017 at 11:26 am,
    Markedtofuture says:
    • On December 12, 2017 at 11:50 am,
      irishtony says:

      Mike Maloney , seems to think silver may have hit bottom
      http://silverseek.com/article/mikes-new-crypto-documentary-large-silver-purchase-17003

      • On December 12, 2017 at 8:07 pm,
        Matthew says:

        In Maloney’s favor is the fact that silver made a new low today while silver miner etf SILJ hasn’t made a new low since Friday. The miners always lead the metals.

        • On December 13, 2017 at 3:36 am,
          Excelsior says:

          The miners have been more resilient this week than the metals. That is an encouraging sign for sure if it continues. Yes, the miners usually lead the markets up or down and if they take off over the next 2 weeks then I’m still looking for a nice rally into the 1st quarter.

  10. On December 12, 2017 at 8:14 pm,
    Matthew says:
  11. On December 13, 2017 at 5:19 am,
    GH says:

    I also believe the miners are very close to reversing upward. Today could be the day.

    I jumped the gun, got in a couple weeks early, and was too slow to step aside when it decided to take another step down.

    But the charts look good, so I’m sitting pat, for now.

    One indicator, gold juniors/mids are ready to rally vs gold majors:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGDX&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66453806502&a=562875568