Chris Temple from The National Investor – Wed 13 Dec, 2017

Don’t Trust The Market Reaction Following The Rate Hike

Chris Temple joins me to recap the Fed rate hike and Yellen’s press conference. The main focus is on the market reaction today especially in terms of the precious metals and treasuries.

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more valuable commentary.

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Chris TempleCory Fleck

  1. On December 13, 2017 at 2:51 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    Interesting thoughts from Chris.

    So we could have a rising USD in 2018 AND rising commodities – i.e. copper, zinc, base metal miners – because of the infrastructure spend that Trump promised now actually happening?

  2. On December 13, 2017 at 3:03 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Couple of interesting takes…….on the Fed meeting today…..

  3. On December 13, 2017 at 3:17 pm,
    b says:

    Rickards figured there would be no rate raise.

  4. On December 13, 2017 at 3:18 pm,
    CFS says:

    I disagree with Manarino that interest rates are being kept low so Wall Street can game the system.

    I believe that interest rates are kept loe to enable the Government to spend excessively with little consequence.
    With the debt load as big as it is, could you imagine the public outrage if all taxation simply went to cover interest on the debt? (And this would happen if interest rates were up at 25% or so, and the economy would be in a death spiral.)

    • On December 14, 2017 at 8:00 am,
      GH says:

      It’s not necessarily either/or-

      Most destructive policies are the result of a confluence of interests.

      Does Wall Street not also benefit from excess government spending?

      DC and NYC, one hand washes the other.

  5. On December 13, 2017 at 3:24 pm,
    CFS says:

    If interest rates were allowed to go to the historical norm, we would still be in a slow death spiral……..unfortunately history also shows that death spirals speed up eventually to produce collapse.

  6. On December 13, 2017 at 3:31 pm,
    CFS says:
    • On December 13, 2017 at 3:44 pm,
      CFS says:

      In the light of Austin-Fitts comments, isn’t it interesting that the man that divulged the lack of work in Haiti by the Clinton Foundation was assassinated earlier this week.

      • On December 13, 2017 at 4:02 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Was that this week…………

        • On December 13, 2017 at 4:52 pm,
          CFS says:

          3 or 4 days ago, the doctor was found with a knife in his chest by his 11 year daughter.

          Police are treating it as a suicide. (Like all the other Clinton-related killings!)

          • On December 13, 2017 at 5:47 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Thanks , I missed that one………appreciate your follow up………..

      • On December 13, 2017 at 6:01 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Alex………..says………Max does business with Soros…………..

  7. On December 13, 2017 at 3:47 pm,
    CFS says:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Latest on the Republican tax overhaul (all times local):

    6 p.m.

    Congressional aides say negotiators have removed several controversial provisions from sweeping tax legislation, including one that would have eliminated the deduction for interest on student loans and another deduction for medical expenses.

    Two congressional aides also say the bill will no longer start taxing graduate-school tuition waivers. The aides spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss private negotiations.

    GOP leaders in the House and Senate have reached an agreement in principle on the biggest rewrite of the nation’s tax laws in more than 30 years, though the legislation is still being finalized today.

  8. On December 13, 2017 at 3:55 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    CNN’s Anderson Cooper Blasts Trump — ‘You Tool! Pathetic Loser’ (Update: Hacked?)

    UPDATE: Cooper is claiming “someone gained access to my twitter account.”

  9. On December 13, 2017 at 4:01 pm,
    CFS says:
    • On December 13, 2017 at 5:01 pm,
      Markedtofuture says:

      CFS ..interesting video

  10. On December 13, 2017 at 4:27 pm,
    CFS says:

    Global Warming?

    It was so cold in London last night that fountains in Trafalgar Square froze over. Their contrast trickle was replaced by an eerie quiet this morning as water skidded across the ice.

  11. On December 13, 2017 at 4:41 pm,
    CFS says:
  12. On December 13, 2017 at 4:49 pm,
    CaliJoe says:

    Time will tell about Chris Temple’s views on metals but this 25 basis points hike isn’t supporting the dollar index for sure. If Fed wants to tighten USD, it needs far bigger rate hikes which doesn’t isn’t really going to support this phony economy. Trump also has made it clear he wants weaker dollar not stronger. All these is supportive of higher gold prices, unless…. Gold price suppression kicks in full gear. My .02 cents.

    • On December 14, 2017 at 6:07 am,
      Excelsior says:

      If the dollar continues to slide, which technically looks realistic, then the commodities and inflation will rise. This will be a tailwind behind PMs as well, right in time for their seasonal strength. Yesterdays big move in Gold & Silver stocks was not just a fluke.

      Again after a rate hike there can be some head-fakes and false moves, but this was the expected reaction and mirrors the exact same story playing out in Dec 2015 and Dec 2016. Sentiment was bad and went to worse, people wrung their hands about the rate hike, and then PMs went up each time afterwards with the talking heads on financial shows scratching their heads.

      Silver is back up above $16 again. Gold at $1256.

      • On December 14, 2017 at 6:10 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Also tax loss selling is essentially over, and now people are staking out new positions. Money is coming into the space that has been camped out on the sidelines since Sept. Some investors only position in the Uranium and PMs near the end of the year and they are getting miners on clearance sale at the present moment.

        • On December 14, 2017 at 7:35 am,
          CaliJoe says:

          Very true Ex. I purchased silver stocks yesterday, my strategy is to average down over coming weeks. I’m also invested in SAND, IAG. Believe 2018 is going to be the year for commodities.

          • On December 14, 2017 at 8:16 am,
            Excelsior says:

            SAND is solid with their streams & royalites, although the Mariana Resources deal was a larger risk than most streamers take. IAG has large leverage to rising Gold prices. You should do very well.

            Yes, I got a bit trigger happy and started adding to depressed and beat down Silver & Gold stocks before Thanksgiving through the beginning of this week. I’m pretty much positioned now, and if there isn’t a Q1 Run then, it will hurt a bit, but Jan & Feb are some of the strongest seasonal months for the miners.

      • On December 14, 2017 at 7:43 am,
        CaliJoe says:

        Also, I’m not touching Uranium.. pretty much all Ur stocks across the board are displaying overbought conditions. I think this move will wore off pretty soon. Time to enter uranium will be in spring.

        • On December 14, 2017 at 8:28 am,
          Matthew says:

          I agree. No uranium for me right now.

          • On December 14, 2017 at 8:31 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Many of the names have already moved 30-50% since November. I’ll take those gains any day.

          • On December 14, 2017 at 8:40 am,
            Matthew says:

            Exactly. I now no longer hold any due to those moves. Hold the likes of UEX at .36 while the silver stocks are trading where they are? I don’t think so.

          • On December 14, 2017 at 8:47 am,
            Matthew says:

            Btw, there is little doubt that the sector has bottomed from a big picture standpoint.

          • On December 14, 2017 at 10:19 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed. I’ve trimmed back a few Uranium stocks slightly and rotated a few of those funds over to Silver stocks, but I still like having the positions in place in the Uranium miners for the longer term since overall that sector finally double-bottomed when Uranium hit $18 in Nov 2016 and mid 2017.

            Both sectors are set up for a peppy Q1 2018.

          • On December 14, 2017 at 10:42 am,
            Matthew says:

            URA bottomed with the gold miners in Jan. 2016…


          • On December 14, 2017 at 10:51 am,
            Matthew says:

            UEX looks great but is weekly overbought yet could easily still go higher before correcting. My selling is similar to why I sold Claude at the beginning of 2016. I stated that I thought it would still triple again but that I also thought my favorite silver plays would do even better. Well, it did triple (sooner than I thought it would), and my top three silver miners delivered more than triple that triple by rising over ten times on average. I also warned that such an approach is very risky.


        • On December 14, 2017 at 8:31 am,
          Excelsior says:

          There are some investors that also play the seasonality in Uranium stocks as well, buying in November and selling in Feb. This year there have been a few good fundamental factors like the recent Cameco production cuts, Kazakhstan production cuts, a few new reactor deals cuts in Africa and the Middle East, and the US spending $30 Million on Nuclear power.

          I agree that things may drag out more as prices are not anywhere close to the $40-$50 needed to incentivize new production/development, but still looking forward to a little more oomph out of the currently rally.

    • On December 14, 2017 at 8:18 am,
      Matthew says:

      The first hike didn’t help the dollar one bit either. Chris and many others said it would be bad for gold I said over and over again that gold would be just fine and it was. In fact, at 30%+, it had one of its best short term moves ever. That was two years ago and gold looks just as good now.
      I trimmed some SILJ yesterday in the 10.80 area and bought it back this morning since I do not expect a deep pullback.

      As for the buck, it has not acted well since bouncing off of its September low but still might hold up for a few weeks longer. On the following chart, I drew those blue arrows on the 30th of last December at the top. I point that out because the decline followed them so perfectly that it looks like they were added afterward.

  13. On December 13, 2017 at 7:09 pm,
    Buzz says:

    I think Chris’s argument held more water when miners were at record highs.

  14. On December 13, 2017 at 7:20 pm,
    Buzz says:

    That is, a year ago June-July?