Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Fri 12 Jan, 2018

Comments on the USD, Gold, Silver, and PM Stocks

The USD is breakdown hard today dropping just below the 91 level. This is helping gold and silver (to a lesser extent) with stocks also getting a buy. Doc shares his insights on the moves today and what looks like some strong weekly closes for metals and US equities.

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  1. On January 12, 2018 at 12:21 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (R) (RDEMF) Red Eagle Mining Announces Santa Rosa Mill Start Up

    by @nasdaq on January 10, 2018

    “Red Eagle Mining Corporation (TSX:R) (BVL:R) (OTCQX:RDEMF) is pleased to provide an update on operations at the Santa Rosa Gold Project, Antioquia, Colombia. The mill successfully started-up on January 2, 2018 as planned and has been operating continuously at greater than 750 tonnes per day.”

    “Underground development at the San Ramon Gold Mine continues to advance according to plan with 412 metres in December and 5,288 metres completed year-to-date. ”

    “San Ramon currently has eighteen working attack ramps, with twelve in production (31 active production faces), two crossing the shear zone and ready for production, two in breasting following backfilling and two in development.”

    • On January 12, 2018 at 3:35 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Everything #Newton on Anaconda Mining $ANX

      by @Newton on January 11, 2018

      • On January 13, 2018 at 4:14 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Equinox Gold Continues to Intersect Significant Gold Mineralization at Piaba West
        JANUARY 10, 2018

        “Equinox Gold Corp. (TSX-V: EQX) is pleased to announce positive results from an additional 24 shallow step-out and infill drill holes totalling 4,200 metres that were drilled below the shallow, westernmost Piaba reserve pit and west along strike from existing reserves at the Company’s 100%-owned Aurizona Gold Mine in Brazil.”

        * Drilling Highlights

        0.97 grams per tonne gold (“g/t Au”) over 19.0 m in hole D563
        3.31 g/t Au over 4.6 m in hole D565
        4.64 g/t Au over 9.0 m in hole D566
        2.01 g/t Au over 19.0 m in hole D567
        1.27 g/t Au over 25.9 m in hole D568
        15.30 g/t Au over 1.0 m in hole D569
        1.35 g/t Au over 17.0 m in hole D570
        6.59 g/t Au over 6.0 m and 7.32 g/t Au over 5.0 m in hole D571
        0.83 g/t Au over 17.0 m and 1.84 g/t Au over 8.0 m in hole D573
        1.43 g/t Au over 9.0 m and 1.32 g/t Au over 10.0 m in hole D576
        2.82 g/t Au over 7.0 m and 2.08 g/t Au over 22.0 m in hole D577
        3.44 g/t Au over 8.0 m in hole D579
        1.11 g/t Au over 11.0 m in hole D581
        2.12 g/t Au over 10.0 m in hole D584
        1.65 g/t Au over 34.0 m in hole D585
        1.03 g/t Au over 34.0 m in hole D586

        “Drilling continues to confirm the potential for significant resource growth at Aurizona,” said Scott Heffernan, EVP Exploration of Equinox Gold. “The 2017 exploration program has primarily focused on testing under-drilled regions below the reserve pit and the extension of mineralization along strike to the west of the Piaba deposit. Results to date have been excellent, encountering significant mineralization below the shallow western end of the pit, extending mineralization up to 350 metres to the west along strike and encountering multiple shallow high-grade intersections.”

    • On January 12, 2018 at 12:31 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Debt Jubilee required ……only a few will be hurt , and they have enjoyed a life of Riley…

  2. On January 12, 2018 at 12:39 pm,
    Matthew says:

    No surprise about the buck. I’ve been saying the dollar bulls had it wrong for a long time.


  3. On January 12, 2018 at 12:54 pm,
    Matthew says:

    There are plenty of indicators that that tell us silver is going to perform as usual versus gold and the following SILJ:GDX chart is one of them. I mentioned it one month ago and it has improved steadily since:

    • On January 12, 2018 at 1:05 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Notice that this is the first weekly close above the middle of the Bollinger bands (20 week MA) since February. It is also the highest weekly close since October.

      Also notice that SLV has closed the week above the 200 week MA for the first time since September…

      • On January 12, 2018 at 1:07 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Most of the Silver stocks were quite peppy again today. Nice to see them trekking higher.

        • On January 12, 2018 at 1:10 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Silver Producers that had a nice Green Day:

          MYA.V Maya Gold and Silver Inc. +10.53%
          EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +5.00%
          BHS.V Bayhorse Silver Inc. +4.26%
          SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +3.37%
          PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +2.97%
          GPL Great Panther Silver Limited +2.86%
          HOC.L Hochschild Mining PLC +2.29%
          CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +2.21%
          FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +1.93%
          TAHO Tahoe Resources Inc. +1.86%
          SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +1.64%
          ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +1.33%
          GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +1.27%
          USAS Americas Silver Corporation +1.23%
          FRES.L Fresnillo PLC +1.16%

        • On January 12, 2018 at 1:14 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Silver Developers & Explorers that closed the week with a nice Green day:

          SDR.V Stroud Resources Ltd. +33.33%
          SDRG Silver Dragon Resources Inc. +31.25%
          BNKR.CN Bunker Hill Mining Corp. +24.50%
          G1A.AX Galena Mining Limited +16.30%
          BBB.V Brixton Metals Corporation +12.50%
          ASLM American Silver Mining Co. +10.83%
          MMG.V Metallic Minerals Corp. +9.76%
          WRM.AX White Rock Minerals Ltd +9.09%
          BTT.V Bitterroot Resources Ltd. +9.09%
          KS.V Klondike Silver Corp. +9.09%
          AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +8.05%
          SSE.V Silver Spruce Resources Inc. +7.69%
          SNG.V Silver Range Resources Ltd. +7.14%
          SBR.TO Silver Bear Resources Plc +6.67%
          CCM.TO Canarc Resource Corp. +6.67%
          SVG.V Silver Grail Resources Ltd. +6.25%
          IVR.AX Investigator Resources Limited +5.56%
          LVN.TO Levon Resources Ltd. +5.00%
          KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc +4.44%
          VAL.AX Valor Resources Limited +4.35%
          PSL.V Prospero Silver Corp. +3.85%
          SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +2.82%
          DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +2.74%
          AZS.AX Azure Minerals Limited +2.74%
          AZS.V Arizona Silver Exploration Inc. +2.70%
          NUAG.V New Pacific Metals Corp. +2.14%
          AUN.V Aurcana Corporation +2.08%
          ABRA.V AbraPlata Resource Corp. +2.04%
          APE.V Apogee Opportunities Inc. +1.79%
          GRG.V Golden Arrow Resources Corporation +1.56%
          VML.V Viscount Mining Corp. +1.54%
          AUMN Golden Minerals Company +1.37%
          SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +1.15%
          MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. +0.73%
          BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +0.50%

          • On January 12, 2018 at 1:18 pm,
            Bob UK says:

            Thanks Excelsior.

          • On January 12, 2018 at 1:19 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Cheers Bob UK. Have a great weekend sir.

    • On January 12, 2018 at 1:33 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold closes at $1339

      Silver closes at $17.28

      Not too shabby to end the week.

  4. On January 12, 2018 at 1:03 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Glenn Mullan | PDAC President (and ceo of Golden Valley Mines GZZ) discusses 2018 PDAC Convention & How it Benefits the Mining Investor

    MiningStockEducation – Jan 11, 2018

  5. On January 12, 2018 at 1:18 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    I don’t mind admitting that I am completely gobsmacked by these first 2 weeks.

  6. On January 12, 2018 at 1:48 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Wall Street Bank with Three Felonies Sends Employee to Head SEC Trading Division

    The arrogance of the captured Wall Street regulators in Washington grows exponentially with each passing day.

    The only Wall Street bank which has admitted to three criminal felony charges – all coming within the past three years – has been allowed to send one of its trading executives to head a key post at Wall Street’s top cop – the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Failing up continues to be the business model in the nation’s capitol.

  7. On January 12, 2018 at 1:50 pm,
    Velma says:

    I Have targets of gold 1575, silver 25, dollar as low as 86. Then watch out.. a global deflationary bust will bring those metals down to 500 and 5 – 8, respectively. The dollar will ramp to 120 as a safe haven. The overall market is entering a blowoff top. FINAL TARGET for the S and P.. 500. Just look at the yearly chart. There is absolutely zero support. The experts running the Fed have lost control. Too much debt.. soon to unwind.

    • On January 12, 2018 at 2:26 pm,
      Matthew says:

      You’re going to find out that the dollar will be no safe haven. It looked like one in the crash of 2008 only because every other asset class was at an all time high while it was at an all time low. That and a lot of leverage on bad bets made for a convincing show. Most don’t realize that gold still beat the dollar by about 6% that year.

      The debt collapse of 1930s only serves as a guide if you recognize that asset values collapsed versus gold and not unbacked pieces of central bank paper (debt) like we have today. All the well known deflationists have been wrong for many years because they refuse to accept this fact.

      The dollar belongs to the Fed and always ultimately reflects the Fed’s actions. If the smartest (biggest) money ever agrees that the Fed has lost control, then the dollar will be one of the first assets to get dumped.

  8. On January 12, 2018 at 1:52 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On January 12, 2018 at 1:56 pm,
      Marty says:

      Green glue is GOOD

  9. On January 12, 2018 at 1:54 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Like silver, the Canadian dollar is confirming the action in gold:

  10. On January 12, 2018 at 1:56 pm,
    Marty says:

    How about Primero

    • On January 12, 2018 at 2:00 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, quite a nice move up today on the First Majestic takeover news. I was expecting a sale of San Dimas, but the takeover is much better news, and when the P.TO shares convert over to FR.TO then all I need is for FR to double and I’m out unscathed. The only downer was the opportunity cost of holding all this time. Still this sad Primero chapter wrapped up better than expected. In contrast, they could have gone bankrupt with shareholders getting nothing, so I consider it the better outcome.

      We discussed this Primero deal pretty heavily this morning on yesterday’s Doc blog about 2/3 of the way down:

    • On January 12, 2018 at 11:54 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      First Majestic expands Mexico footprint with $320M Primero Mining acquisition
      Cecilia Jamasmie | Jan. 12, 2018

  11. On January 12, 2018 at 1:58 pm,
    Marty says:

    I don’t own any. I put a big chunk in Golden Arrow @ USD $0.30

    • On January 12, 2018 at 2:08 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Golden Arrow still had a much better year than many miners and you should have 3/4 bagger on it from there. GRG should do much better 2018 now they they are going into production with SSR Mining. It’s likely that SSR just takes them over this year once they get things up and running.

      Good luck Marty and nice to see you pop in here. Cheers!

      • On January 12, 2018 at 2:25 pm,
        Marty says:

        Next week COT gold should really be interesting

        • On January 12, 2018 at 2:34 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I’m sure it will be interest, but normally I just digest other peoples analysis on it for a quick snapshot of what is going on.

          Personally I don’t really keep track of the COT positioning for my trading purposes, and feel technical analysis on charts is a far better indicator for price direction, than the long/short spread on the commercial traders versus retail traders.

          I realize that some investors put a great deal of weighting on it though. If you have any thoughts next week when the numbers get posted I’d be interested in hearing any insights people draw from the (+/-) changes on both sides of the fence.

        • On January 12, 2018 at 2:40 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I would expect COT positioning to deteriorate more for gold than silver as many will sell it and sell it short to take advantage of, and hedge, better “risk on” opportunities within the sector.

        • On January 12, 2018 at 2:56 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          It’s already deteriorating considerably. Next week should be worse.

  12. On January 12, 2018 at 2:25 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Weak Dollar Drives Gold Prices Higher
    January 11, 2018 – by Gary Wagner

    “Today’s gains have taken gold to its highest value so far in 2018. On Friday of last week, gold prices reached the former 2018 apex when it closed at $1322 per ounce. Although gold prices surged to an intraday high of $1327 on Thursday of last week, on a closing basis today’s gains are not only a new record high close for the year but also a four-month high for the precious yellow metal.”

    “This rally, which began in mid-December with gold trading at $1238, has been driven by multiple factors, but it has been the tailwinds provided by a weakening U.S. dollar that has had the most enormous impact.”

  13. On January 12, 2018 at 2:29 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    To the moon with Crypto Wars — Issue No. 9

    Your dose of crypto news and analysis from @BTO and @Goldfinger

  14. On January 12, 2018 at 2:30 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold is sorta following the arrows that I drew on the following chart about a week ago:


    • On January 12, 2018 at 2:51 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Follow The Yellow Brick Road

      • On January 12, 2018 at 4:01 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        better check your ruby red slippers……….

        • On January 12, 2018 at 4:48 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I’ve been telling that to myself when trimming stocks back a bit and raising some cash reserves and dry powder inside my trading account…….

          There’s No Place Like Home

  15. On January 12, 2018 at 2:34 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Look at that MACD – it leaves a lot of room for a significant move higher.

  16. On January 12, 2018 at 2:49 pm,
    Marty says:

    DOC, THERE ARE NO TECHNICALS for silver, when there is no law enforcement on the CRIMEX since Bear Stearns was taken out by The GodFather himself, JPM. YES, THEY DO EAT THEIR YOUNG. And now it will be up to JPM to decide when to spike the price

  17. On January 12, 2018 at 3:16 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    One Big, Potential Catalyst for Gold in 2018

    by @TheDailyGold (Jordan Roy-Byrne) – January 12, 2018

    “The rebound in the precious metals sector continues. Friday, Gold pushed to another new high, near $1340/oz. Gold stocks led by the HUI Gold Bugs Index and GDX also made a new high with juniors and Silver right behind. The greatest traders say the move comes first and then the reason later. When it comes to Gold we are always analyzing the reason behind the moves so we can distinguish between reactions and reflex moves and those moves that are part of a real bull market. The market may be starting to sniff out a potential big catalyst for Gold that could drive its breakout in 2018.”

    “With respect to Gold and Bonds an important change has taken place in recent months. The two asset classes had been positively correlated. When rates declined, Gold moved higher. When rates rebounded, Gold struggled. That is what happens when inflation is low and not trending. However, now we see long-term Bonds (specifically the 10-year Bond) moving towards a breakdown while Gold is not far from a breakout. ”

    “It is counterintuitive but upward pressure on long-term rates can be very bullish for Gold (in the present environment) as it necessitates the need for lower or stable long-term rates (amid an inflationary environment). It all comes back to debt. At somepoint rising rates negatively impact the economy and the government’s balance sheet. If that creates the need for central bank intervention and monetization while inflation is running then that is what can push Gold to $2000-$3000/oz in the next several years.”

    “The looming, potential breakdown in long-term Bonds could be a major catalyst for the breakout in precious metals. Don’t wait too long, as gold stocks remain historically and incredibly cheap. Select junior miners and explorers have the chance to be 5-10 baggers if Gold breaks resistance and trends towards its 2011 high. We seek the juniors that are trading at reasonable values but have fundamental and technical catalysts that will drive increased buying.”

    • On January 12, 2018 at 3:21 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Interesting thoughts from Eric Coffin:

      @HRA-Coffin – “Yep. “Gold bugs” get hung up on gloom and doom scenarios but if you look back at some of gold’s strongest periods they usually come late cycle when capacity constraints across the economy start driving inflation and central banks – for good and valid reasons – know they will blow things up if they raise rates too fast to get ahead of it. “Behind the curve” is when you see the largest moves. 2018 should be good. $gold ”

      ” The dirty little secret lately is how much consumer spending is getting ahead of wages. The recent numbers for the savings rate are alarming, and expansion of expensive credit (ie credit cards) at the retail level has been going through the roof lately in the US. Someone better start giving all these guys raises or you can kiss the push to the economy from retail sales goodbye.”

      “I’ve been cynical about inflation in the US up to now, and still am a bit, because we haven’t bee seeing wage increases but that may finally be starting now based on how many industry surveys I’ve seen lately where “getting good employees” is the number one concern. Late cycle is of course when base metals shine as well, so we may actually have several subsectors in the resource space bullish at the same time. Its been a while since THAT happened.”
      — @HRA-Coffin

  18. On January 12, 2018 at 3:39 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Gold is nearing its critical juncture again. Both gold and silver look ok at the moment but we have all seen this before.

    • On January 12, 2018 at 4:00 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Clawing it’s way back from a crypto interruption………….jmo

    • On January 12, 2018 at 4:14 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It’s a lot less critical than it was yesterday or even this morning. If next week begins with the same strength, the bears better cut their losses.

      Yes, we’ve seen this before — at the beginning of 2016.

  19. On January 12, 2018 at 3:59 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  20. On January 12, 2018 at 4:25 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    The critical point I was referring to is that 1360-70 region for gold that has failed 3 or 4 times in the last few years. Time will tell whether this occasion is different. A positive for the PMs is that the $ looks quite weak at the moment and bitcoin is just muddling along.

    • On January 12, 2018 at 4:56 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Ozibatla – it’s a valid point you raise about the wall of resistance in the $1362- $1377 zone.

      Back in August and October we were pondering what trigger would cause gold to break above the prior peaks and truly start to break out. The best catalyst we discussed at the time was for the US Dollar to break the 91-92 support and dive into the high $80s. This looks like a potentially realistic probability at this point, so we may just break out of the range in 2018. If the bull market really started in 2016, as I believe it did, then we should see higher highs this year. Just my 2 cents…. Cheers!

      • On January 12, 2018 at 6:30 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Hi Ex. Yeh I remember the chat about a fresh catalyst needed for the PMs.
        I still think that the $ breaking the 90 region along with Cryptos losing their luster would be ideal for gold and silver. However, along with gold facing major resistance at the 1370 region, the dollar faces similar major support at 90. Which one prevails? Hate to say it but I think the dollar wins this little battle… again!

        • On January 12, 2018 at 11:30 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          It’s possible the that dollar could bounce off support, but if you consider the Head & Shoulders pattern playing out, and that we are just finishing the right shoulder, then a plunge into 80’s for the US Dollar wouldn’t surprise me at all.

          As you mentioned, the initial attempt at that 92-91 region didn’t blow anyone away with Gold’s response, but on this next attempt if 91 fails, and there is an 8 handle on the greenback, then it may raise a few eyebrows and get more investors and funds considering hedging with Precious Metals. That would be the new money needed to flood into the sector that would be a rising tide lifting all boats.

          I’ve positioned for that scenario, and it if doesn’t happen, then I’ll need to adjust my strategy. This may take until the 2nd half of 2018 as many commentators have noted, but there is still a chance we see this play out in the balance of Jan/Feb.

          • On January 13, 2018 at 2:09 am,
            Ozibatla says:

            Interesting views. Ultimately I think it becomes a pissing contest between thos who are keen on PMs as an alternative and those who think the dollar is due for a healthy bounce??? The cryptos (specifically bitcoin) are a wildcard in this game I believe.
            It is such a volatile world out there, no one truly knows which way the pendulum is going to swing.
            Its becoming very interesting in the markets.
            I personally think that globalisation is going to have the last laugh eventually

          • On January 13, 2018 at 3:29 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I agree that it appears globalism will have the last laugh. (although it’s tragic comedy).

    • On January 12, 2018 at 5:06 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Thanks for clarifying. Based on the technical picture for gold and more, I will be surprised if gold is stopped by 1370 again. From price action to the weekly and monthly indicators, the charts didn’t look nearly as good during the last attempts.

      • On January 12, 2018 at 6:36 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Good point Matthew. With the techincal indicators looking healthier than in the past, what are the implications if gold fails here again? Is the cap just turned a little tighter?

        • On January 12, 2018 at 7:39 pm,
          Matthew says:

          If it follows the path of the arrows on the following chart, it will cost us a little time and a pullback in the miners. If it pulls back much more, then it will cost much more time and cause many to doubt their bullish views. I won’t be doubting mine and such action could set up even bigger rewards but it would still be a trying experience. If it goes to say, 1380, and then has to visit the 233 week MA yet again, for example, our miners would act somewhat catastrophically but there’d still be little big picture technical damage to gold itself.

  21. On January 12, 2018 at 7:42 pm,
    cmc says:

    Thanks, doc. I’m with you, man.

    • On January 12, 2018 at 8:46 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      CMC, you’re welcome. We have a little more work to do but we’re definately now in the driver’s seat. It’s only a matter of time after we get by the first half of this year. I’ve been purchasing again with selective stocks and holding off on others that have had a nice run. I’ll probably get the most aggressive I’ve been on the next major downturn which should be this spring and summer. Patience is a virtue and it will be rewarded.

      • On January 13, 2018 at 5:17 pm,
        cmc says:

        Roger that, doc, patience is a virtue. I sold one recently that made a good run (Rye Patch). I haven’t bought much lately, thinking I’ll wait for the next big downturn, but on the other hand I’m pretty fully invested in PMs already, holding on tight.

  22. On January 12, 2018 at 11:52 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Zinc price hits fresh decade high
    Frik Els | Jan. 12, 2018,

  23. On January 12, 2018 at 11:57 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The raw materials that fuel the Green Revolution
    Visual Capitalist | Jan. 11, 2018

    “A major theme of the conference is sustainable energy – and the math indeed makes it clear that to fully transition to a green economy, we’ll need vast amounts of metals like copper, silicon, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and silver.”

    “These metals and minerals are needed to generate, store, and distribute green energy. Without them, the reality is that technologies like solar panels, wind turbines, lithium-ion batteries, nuclear reactors, and electric vehicles are simply not possible.”

  24. On January 13, 2018 at 5:16 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Yes Ex it is tragic but what do you do? Such a crazy world!

    • On January 13, 2018 at 5:29 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Diversify across different sectors and subsectors. 🙂

  25. On January 13, 2018 at 5:36 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Yep indeed! Down here in Aus, land is a good start but pick carefully we are so resource dependent