Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 8 Feb, 2018

Margin Supported Markets Spread Across the Board

Craig Hemke and I touch on a number of different markets that were all impacted by the recent drop in US equities. We look at some key levels in the S&P to assess today’s moves. Plus yields and commodities and how they are impacted by a race to cash all thanks to massive amounts of margin that help push stocks higher. When the markets fall this margin forces investors to cover which spreads to a wide range of asset classes.

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Click here to visit Craig’s site for more metals focused commentary.

Craig HemkeCory Fleck

  1. On February 8, 2018 at 1:04 pm,
    CFS says:

    Admiral Mike Rogers praised:

    • On February 8, 2018 at 2:47 pm,
      CFS says:

      More POLITICS:
      Listen to some minutes of this:
      Obama, Loretta Lynch, Hillary Clinton…..all liars.

      • On February 8, 2018 at 9:03 pm,
        CFS says:

        A must listen:

        Comey is corrupt

        • On February 9, 2018 at 7:48 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          What was your first clue……………….lol

  2. On February 8, 2018 at 1:33 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Budget deal is brimming with special tax breaks

    The Bipartisan Budget Act that Congress is set to pass Thursday is brimming with tax provisions for a variety of special interests, including racehorse owners, small private colleges and television and film companies.

    At least two of the tax breaks help the constituents of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who negotiated the deal with Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.).

    Altogether, the special tax provisions amount to $17.4 billion over the next four years, with most of the costs incurred — $13.3 billion — in fiscal year 2018, according to an analysis released by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT).

  3. On February 8, 2018 at 2:36 pm,
    John Smith says:

    Hey Moriarty..where are you? I expected you to be trolling Craig already. If you don’t appreciate his comments and insights, just don’t listen…simple!

    • On February 8, 2018 at 4:23 pm,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      John Smith:

      How do you have any idea of what someone says without listening?

      I do know the Turd is an outright liar when he said, “Futures market manipulation and spoofing??
      I thought Weiner/Christian/Armstrong/Moriarty/Norcini/Casey/Gilbert all assured us the markets were sacrosanct, free and fair!”

      None of those people have ever suggested anything like that.

      And if the Turd has a problem with half a dozen metals brokers spoofing, just wait until he figures out how HFT works.

      If someone disagrees with you, is the best response to just lie through your teeth? Maybe you would like to provide an example or two of how any of those people said anything like that.

      The turd is outraged at the fraud of a few people spoofing gold and silver but his own fraud is perfectly ok. I guess you as well.

      • On February 11, 2018 at 6:58 am,
        John Smith says:

        Well, well, well…again, Bob fails to acknowledge his pasts…and continues his trolling ways.

    • On February 8, 2018 at 10:48 pm,
      terry says:

      This act is not necessary at all.

      • On February 8, 2018 at 10:50 pm,
        terry says:

        John Smith,
        This act is really not necessary at all.

        • On February 11, 2018 at 7:01 am,
          John Smith says:

          Moriarty concludes: “All financial markets are manipulated. Live with it.”

          This observation by Moriarty is actually progress, since, when GATA began, he and others like him denied any manipulation of the monetary metals markets at all. Now that market manipulation is so obvious that anyone who denies it risks losing all credibility, the former deniers can only try to minimize it.

      • On February 11, 2018 at 7:04 am,
        John Smith says:

        Hi Bob, I mean Terry…please see link for further info:

  4. On February 8, 2018 at 3:23 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Off topic:
    Rand Paul tells it like it is (and you know that 90% of Trump’s supporters don’t get it)…

  5. On February 8, 2018 at 3:35 pm,
    spanky says:

    I know gold doesn’t look nearly this terrible, but look at silver now compared to the setup into late 2012. And I know, I have been told by many here how dumb it is to compare 2012-13 to the current situation. To me, the structure looks *eerily* similar in many respects. For example, just like in late 2012, the 200 dma recently negatively crossed the 600 dma.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 7:52 am,
      GH says:

      I made some comments to you the other day that you may find useful, Spanky.

      The relevant part to your comment above is where I said “It’s hard to know where you’re at in the market cycle until you’ve been through a full cycle. Until you get that orientation, you’ll be insecure in your position.”

  6. On February 8, 2018 at 3:57 pm,
    Chartster says:

    Now that’s a creepy chart, you little rascal.

  7. On February 8, 2018 at 4:03 pm,
    Chartster says:

    It looks like ford motor company (F) will out perform SILJ for the next few months. Who’d a thunk it.

    • On February 8, 2018 at 7:21 pm,
      Matthew says:

      F is still down 63% versus SILJ since January, 2016 despite rising 69% versus SILJ since last August. Who’d a thunk it.

  8. On February 8, 2018 at 7:22 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    Hey Jerry, you out there???

    Peter “Mashed Potatoes“…

    • On February 8, 2018 at 7:22 pm,
      Ebolan says:

      …mentioned mashed potatoes 🙂

      • On February 9, 2018 at 7:05 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        THE SPUD………….
        Well, if media exposure was a testament to knowledge, credibility and excellent track records, Peter Schiff’s clients would be a lot happier when they looked at their account balance.

        • On February 9, 2018 at 7:41 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Or….MR POTATO HEAD…………..

          • On February 9, 2018 at 7:43 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            E…sorry…..E bunny……sorry….

  9. On February 8, 2018 at 10:27 pm,
    CFS says:
  10. On February 9, 2018 at 3:02 am,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Soros – One of the Greatest Threats Against Society? by Martin Armstrong

    It is no secret that I have no respect for George Soros and that is aside from the fact that we would often be on opposite sides of the market. I never saw Soros as a great trader. Even the reputation that he broke the Bank of England was nonsense. The “Club” was all on that trade and it was a guaranteed trade where if the peg broke, you made a fortune and if you were wrong, you got your money back. I was on the opposite side back then being called in by those in the British government. After a 7-year bull market in equities, Soros finally threw in the towel ending his bets on the stock market crash only after being wrong for so long.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 6:50 am,
      bonzo barzini says:

      Soros is wrong about everything. He even helped the Nazis round up Jews as a youngster in Hungary. I hope the Massad gets him one day when he least expects it.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 7:52 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Maybe, Soros could bust the FED…..

        • On February 9, 2018 at 7:54 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          “It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.” –Mark Twain

        • On February 9, 2018 at 7:59 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          “We Jews, we, the destroyers, will remain the destroyers for ever. Nothing that you will do will meet our needs and demands. We will for ever destroy because we need a world of our own, a God-world, which it is not in your nature to build.”

          – Maurice Samuels, You Gentiles, 1924

      • On February 9, 2018 at 7:55 am,
        GH says:

        Do you get the impression that he and the Zionists/NWO crowd are opponents? I don’t.

        • On February 9, 2018 at 8:00 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          see above….

    • On February 9, 2018 at 7:12 am,
      spanky says:

      Dare I say, when after we do get a small bounce, there is going to almost certainly be a lower low made.

  11. On February 9, 2018 at 7:09 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Brain dead…………America
    “There are two sorts of wealth-getting, as I have said; one is a part of household management, the other is retail trade: the former necessary and honorable, while that which consists in exchange is justly censured; for it is unnatural, and a mode by which men gain from one another. The most hated sort, and with the greatest reason, is usury, which makes a gain out of money itself, and not from the natural object of it. For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term interest, which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of modes of getting wealth this is the most unnatural.”

    – Politics, Aristotle, 350 B.C.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 8:08 am,
      GH says:

      Nice quote Jerry, thanks.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 1:00 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        You are welcome GH………

  12. On February 9, 2018 at 7:51 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Silver is now endanger of going to $15.handle…again….silver

  13. On February 9, 2018 at 8:44 am,
    spanky says:
  14. On February 9, 2018 at 8:46 am,
    spanky says:

    GDX hit the 200 WMA at $21.18 so far today. It will break the neckline today or next week of a large H&S that projects to $17. Sure, a dead cat bounce is due anytime, by the dye is being cast for much lower lows in the weeks ahead.

  15. On February 9, 2018 at 8:49 am,
    spanky says:

    I stated that SIL was setting up for a waterfall decline and all I got was lol’ed at.

  16. On February 9, 2018 at 8:56 am,
    CFS says:

    You were wrong about the waterfall decline in silver, just as the “going to the moon” people were.
    It will drop slightly and then be flat before increasing.
    Why won’t it waterfall drop? Because of production costs are too close to current prices.
    Why will it eventually take off? Because significant decline in the dollar will eventually happen as the dollar increasingly prints into trouble.

    Despite what charts say, fundamentals take over eventually.

    Ira’s Morning stuff

  17. On February 9, 2018 at 9:11 am,
    spanky says:

    This right here, this has some serious implications about stock market liquidity–we are talking 2008. Miners crashing right along with stocks.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 10:23 am,
      CFS says:

      Don’t conflate the metals with miners, spanky.

      metals can decrease a little, while miners go down a lot.

      e.g. Take a miner that is operating on a 20% margin at a given metal price.
      Then assume metal prices drop 10%

      That means the profitability of the miner has gone down by 50%.

      Since we are now at a point in time when metal prices have been dropping, the profit margins on many miners are almost zero. It now only takes a small further drop in metal prices to wipe out profitability.
      The behavior of metals versus miners can be substantially different.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 10:27 am,
        b says:

        Mining News Digest
        Thursday 8 February 2018
        Home Gold Coal Copper Iron Ore Oil Sands Rare Earth Silver Uranium
        Rio Tinto pays biggest divvy in history as profit hits three-year high
        Mining giant posts 90% increase in profit amid what CEO Jean-Sébastien Jacques calls “resilient” commodity prices.

        read »

        • On February 9, 2018 at 10:31 am,
          b says:

          Looks like Rio will go thru the roof when commodities turn higher.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 11:39 am,
      Matthew says:

      This is nothing like 2008 and the miners will likely bottom way before the stock market does.

      GDX:GLD daily:

      • On February 9, 2018 at 11:48 am,
        spanky says:

        It’s going to slinky along the middle fork prong until it finally breaks through and heads for the lower prong. And as of oversold RSI means anything in the short run as there is almost always a lower low made with a divergence in momentum indicators. This is not 2016.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 11:48 am,
        Matthew says:

        Btw, GDX hasn’t been so oversold versus gold since July, 2015.

        • On February 9, 2018 at 11:53 am,
          spanky says:

          And that’s a good thing? Lower lows next week. likely some sideways grind for a few days after the low is struck, and then a collapse into late march. GDX is headed to $17 in the next couple of months.

          • On February 9, 2018 at 11:58 am,
            spanky says:

            My longer term view has been right more than anyone else on this board over the last 19 months. You’ve been calling for an imminent breakout all the way down.

          • On February 9, 2018 at 12:10 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Yes, spanky, that’s a good thing. Such “things” represent opportunity to some of us.
            GDX is a buy relative to gold.

            You might recall that I sold SILJ when it was above $12 and got rid of my margin debt at the same time.

            You do know that buying low and selling high is desirable, don’t you?

          • On February 9, 2018 at 12:16 pm,
            Matthew says:

            And what have you done with your right calls? I bet the answer is a big NOTHING. I am still up more than you’d probably believe thanks to getting 2016 right (which meant buying serious spanky fear throughout 2015).
            My IPT stake is now over 20 times what it was before it broke down last spring.

          • On February 9, 2018 at 12:16 pm,
            spanky says:

            Well it’s going lower still, so you will have plenty of more opportunities in the days ahead.

          • On February 9, 2018 at 12:19 pm,
            Matthew says:

            You need to learn to be accurate with your silly comments. I did not “call for a breakout all the way down.” I’ve been wrong about plenty but you are ignoring a lot of details that went with my expectations.

          • On February 9, 2018 at 1:44 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Spanky your perception of reality sure is unique. First of all there were about 4 of us that nailed the bottom in Gold in December of 2015 (Matthew, Gabriel, Bob M, and myself) while you’ve been clamoring on about the metals still being in a Bear Market the last 2 years. Next I recommended trimming mining stocks back in July & August of 2016 ( when apparently you were buying at the top). Third I called the Q1 Run in late Dec 2016 into Jan & Feb 2017, and fourth the rally in Gold out of the summer doldrum bottom in Aug 2017 into September, and fifth the rally out of Dec 2017 into January 2018. Spanky, you didn’t call any of those, so I find your comment that you have been the most correct person on here the last 19 months “utter trash.”

    • On February 9, 2018 at 11:43 am,
      Matthew says:

      The IPT shares that I bought today are up 6.6% at the moment.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 12:08 pm,
        spanky says:

        Yes, and you probably produced the spike by your own buying.

        • On February 9, 2018 at 12:21 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Not a chance. I got one small order filled at .315 before it went to .31 and then higher.

  18. On February 9, 2018 at 9:35 am,
    Chartster says:

    You’re correct about everything crashing. But commodities and emerging markets will get the bid sooner than the rest. PMs will stop plummeting and get a bid while the general market and bonds continue the route.

    Boy, that bottom wall on the cloud is something else.. There’s many charts out there telling that story.. Those banks and hedge funds holding XIV were about stupid holding that stuff. The VIX told the story a week before the drop. The breakaway gap on INDU won’t be filled for years..

  19. On February 9, 2018 at 9:51 am,
    b says:

    Miners falling alright, seems I was right to think cash was the place to be.

    Be nice if miners tank big time.

  20. On February 9, 2018 at 10:40 am,
    spanky says:

    The yen/miner correlation is breaking down badly, but in the wrong direction for miners! This looks way worse than January 2016 to me. Next week is going to be a doozy. I expect some sort of multiday bounce the following week. Then, who knows. My money would be on a drop all the way through the next FOMC meeting in late March.

  21. On February 9, 2018 at 10:52 am,
    Tom says:

    Anyone who is fearing inflation has lived under a Rock since 1980. It has been decades since this country has seen anything even remotely considered as excessive inflation.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 11:27 am,
      Matthew says:

      Tom, there’s no need to “fear” what is easily measurable.
      There has been a lot of inflation since 1980 and those who understand consider it “excessive” well before those who don’t.

      Did you know that the median price of a new home in December 2017 was $335,000 while the average was $399,000? In 1980, the numbers were $65,000 and $75,000, respectively. A “quarter million dollar” house used to be something most people could only dream about owning. Today, 250k is nothing for a house. There are many, many more examples like that one.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 1:31 pm,
        Excelsior says:


  22. On February 9, 2018 at 11:18 am,
    b says:

    Is losing 50% of purchasing power of your dollar in 50 years excessive?

    I guess it happens slow enough people dont really notice.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 11:28 am,
      Matthew says:

      It’s a helluva lot more than 50%, b.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 12:03 pm,
      GH says:

      Part of it is the constant financial headwinds the average person faces.

      Worse is that the headwind is the result of villains siphoning away humanity’s vitality, en masse, and using the power they gain thereby to further abuse and exploit humanity. And they do it all the while posing as philanthropists and shedding crocodile tears.

  23. On February 9, 2018 at 11:18 am,
    b says:

    oops, 35 years

  24. On February 9, 2018 at 11:50 am,
    spanky says:

    Ugly topping candle on the GDX 1 hour chart. Down we go. Will likely close at or near the low for the day. And we are most certainly going lower next week.

  25. On February 9, 2018 at 12:26 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Silver looks great compared to stocks.

    SLV:DIA weekly:

    • On February 9, 2018 at 12:58 pm,
      spanky says:

      You see that giant black candle this week? Silver is going lower vs the Dow next week, and likely down hard.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 3:15 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Yes, it just might, but silver is the buy, not the Dow.