Exclusive Comments from Marc Chandler – Mon 26 Feb, 2018

Inflation and The Gap Up In Markets Around The World Today

Marc Chandler, Head of Global Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman joins me today to look ahead to economic data on tap for this week in Europe and the US. We also address the gap higher in the US, Europe, and Japanese markets. Is this going to prove to be a breakout gap?

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Featuring:
Marc ChandlerCory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On February 26, 2018 at 4:51 pm,
    CFS says:

    The Fed can and will make market calming statements, regardless of what they believe is actually going to happen.
    I believe the thing guaranteed to happen is a decaying dollar purchasing power.

  2. On February 26, 2018 at 5:58 pm,
    CFS says:
  3. On February 26, 2018 at 6:09 pm,
    CFS says:
  4. On February 27, 2018 at 12:56 am,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Global Blockchain Announces Go-Forward Initiatives & Corporate Strategy, Updates on Spinout & Stock Split – CSE:BLOC:CC OTC:BLCKF

    February 27, 2018 VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Feb. 26, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Global Blockchain Technologies Corp. (the “Company” or “BLOC” or “Global Blockchain”) is pleased to provide, due to a high level of investor inquiry, a further detailed explanation of what shareholders of record at the close of market on March 1, 2018 (the “Record Date”) will receive, as well as an overview of the parts that form the sum of Global Blockchain. In order to be a shareholder of record on March 1, 2018, shares must be owned by no later than the close of market on February 27, 2018.The Result of the Stock Split and Spinout: The following is an example of a $BLOC shareholder holding 100 shares of BLOC on the Record Date:

    https://ir.globalblockchain.io/press-releases/detail/30/global-blockchain-announces-go-forward-initiatives

  5. On February 27, 2018 at 1:56 am,
    CFS says:

    The internet retail giant Amazon, reportedly took in $5.6 billion in U.S. profits.
    Yet Amazon effectively paid zero dollars in federal income taxes in 2017. Surprise.
    Amazon is projecting a $789 million windfall from Republicans’ tax bill, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, which may have factored into its reason for witholding taxes this year. Bezos,like Buffett, claims to disagree with Donald Trump’s policies, while quietly lapping up the Republicans’ regressive tax breaks.

    Wondering how is this legal Isn’t Amazon an American company?
    Aren’t companies required to pay federal income tax?
    I don’t think so. Corporations are not like individuals.
    Amazon’s global headquarters is not in Seattle, but in the little land-locked nation of Luxembourg, which gives it this tax break.
    (Amazon employs more than 40,000 people in Seattle, compared to 1,500 people in Luxembourg.)

    • On February 27, 2018 at 5:33 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      ONLY the LITTLE PEOPLE PAY TAXES….Leona Helmsley…….

  6. On February 27, 2018 at 5:57 am,
    GH says:

    Matthew, Excelsior, thanks for your discussion of Jeff Kern’s bearish announcement this weekend.

    Other than the short term, I have a hard time seeing the PM charts in a bearish light. I still think I see a powerful move up approaching.

    http://schrts.co/txosTm

    • On February 27, 2018 at 6:10 am,
      GH says:

      Looks like platinum is nearing a powerful reversion-to-mean relative to gold:

      http://schrts.co/iHA6pS

    • On February 27, 2018 at 6:26 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, that was an interesting point of view from the SKI analytics process, and Jordan Roy-Byrne covered how a washout to a “false low” like the other analogs he tracked, may be the catalyst for a huge impulse leg higher to new levels. Goldfinger agreed in a way by looking for a dip to be the event that pulls in money off the sidelines. Even Gary Wagner was flat going into this week as he felt it was too hard to call whether the bulls or the bears would succeed. Bob M mentioned that the DSI needs to pull back more to the 10-20 level so that sentiment gets washed out before Gold and the miners can reverse course.

      These are all good thoughts to consider, but it does set off a contrarian alarm in the back of my mind when so many analysts and commentators feel a washout is in the cards. Often the markets will fly in the face of a well reasoned thesis and do something totally different just to confuse and frustrate traders on all sides of the issue.

      Like Matthew mentioned over the weekend:

      “Most experts are in bearish agreement with Jeff/SKI and experts sway a lot of people. So if they are wrong, we will see a large move that only a tiny few will enjoy.”

      The contrarian investor in me relishes that thought 🙂

      Goldfinger mentioned in his recent article:

      “seems like not many people (aside from the lunatic fringe) have significant exposure to $gold and $silver here: ”

      I guess, once again, my PM mining positions have me allocated like part of the lunatic fringe…. However, that doesn’t mean I’m not tuned in to the possible correction afoot or prepared to trim and hedge those mining positions if things start getting ugly.

      However, I still believe we are in the bull market that started in 2016 and that until something drastically changes and the metals put in all time lows, then there is nothing on the horizon to cause me to doubt this thesis. In a Bull market, the surprises are to the upside, and often sudden moves higher leave the doubters, and overly cautious in the dust. People will console each other with statements like, “Well, nobody saw that move coming…” or “that move came from out of nowhere and doesn’t make any sense….” Those sudden impulse moves higher DO make sense if people realize we are still in a new Bull market, and that we’ve mostly digested and consolidated the initial moves up in the first 8 months of 2016, and the next mini rally in the Q1 run of 2017.

      Personally, most of my mining positions are at a very good cost basis since the core positions were purchased in late 2015 – early 2016, and I’ve swing-traded around those positions since then lowering the cost basis in many even further.

      As a result, waiting out any current weakness with most of them is the strategy I’m using, as I still believe the “surprises” will be more to the upside in a bull market, than the expect downside by most market participants. I may do a bit of hedging or trimming, but most of my positions I’m just leaving in place.

      I’ve also used the summer though the end of the 2017 to pick up a number of new positions in Jr Miners that I’d been watching for some time. Even recently there were a few new positions I’ve started accumulating, because a number of stocks are just really beaten up here.

      If we get a nice rout in the mining shares, then it would be a good place to add to companies that investors really liked at higher price valuations.

      • On February 27, 2018 at 8:30 am,
        Silverdollar says:

        EX:
        Very good read and quite convincing for a surprise to the upside. Having positioned at somewhat higher prices on most issues, I’m prepared to ride out whatever. Selling here would guarantee a loss and also that if a bull resumes, one is on the outside. Guess I think some pressure on the downside is not as painful at this juncture as knowing I’ve missed the upside and have to begin chasing!

        • On February 27, 2018 at 8:37 am,
          Matthew says:

          That’s a wise way of looking at things right now.

        • On February 27, 2018 at 9:04 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Good thoughts Silverdollar and that is a prudent approach.

          For the short term I ended up throwing on a small JDST hedge just in case the short-term downside pressure is as severe as some are expecting, but overall I’m holding my PM mining positions for the surges higher that may catch investors by surprise.

          Cheers!

        • On February 27, 2018 at 10:03 am,
          spanky says:

          “I’m prepared to ride out whatever. Selling here would guarantee a loss and also that if a bull resumes, one is on the outside.”

          It never, ever works this way in this sector.

          It’s clear that 2016 totally reset sentiment, despite the monumental a$$whipping received in the prior 5 years. There’s a whole new crop of bagholders now.

  7. On February 27, 2018 at 6:13 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Diesel cars can be banned from German cities, court rules

    February 26, 2018 – Markus Wacket, Ilona Wissenbach

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-emissions/diesel-cars-can-be-banned-from-german-cities-court-rules-idUSKCN1GA2XD?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

    • On February 27, 2018 at 7:41 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      sorry, did not see your post before I posted above……… 🙂

      • On February 27, 2018 at 9:02 am,
        Excelsior says:

        No worries mate – it’s worth double posting the news.

        It could be a significant driver in the auto sector & PGM markets if more countries start doing the same. It also could be a tailwind for increased EV market-share. Interesting times.

  8. On February 27, 2018 at 8:22 am,
    CFS says:
  9. On February 27, 2018 at 9:15 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Canada’s stock market is the 2nd worst performer in the world, next to Venezuela

    By Michael Levy CKNW

    https://globalnews.ca/news/4038135/business-report-canadas-stock-market-is-the-2nd-worst-performer-in-the-world-next-to-venezuela/

  10. On February 27, 2018 at 9:17 am,
    spanky says:

    Silver is about to break down on the weekly and months charts. It will definitely be taking out the 2016 low by late March. The bloodbath begins today.

    Silver miners are headed back to new multi year lows too, though I am not sure they will take out the 2016 low.

  11. On February 27, 2018 at 9:23 am,
    Matthew says:

    The dollar bulls now have the distinct short term advantage.

    UUP 2 hour:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=120&yr=0&mn=3&dy=9&id=p52987710546&a=576312048

  12. On February 27, 2018 at 9:30 am,
    spanky says:

    $hui will be sub-150 by late March. I am going to guess 125.

  13. On February 27, 2018 at 9:33 am,
    spanky says:

    If the stock market crashes, so will gold and silver, but more so. Especially silver. The trade of the year is long stock market and short silver.

  14. On February 27, 2018 at 9:40 am,
    spanky says:

    GLD:GDX is set to explode higher on the daily chart.

  15. On February 27, 2018 at 9:47 am,
    Chartster says:

    Trade of the year is long stock market and short silver? I don’t think so. PMs will get smacked for the next few months, I do believe. Post PM wash will be an awesome buying opportunity of a lifetime. I’ve been waiting for this wash for too long now.

    The stock exchange is cooked for all of 2018. It would not surprise me to see the Dow at 11,000 before the crash stops. Silver should start kicking butt come summer.

    • On February 27, 2018 at 5:25 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I agree that the PMs may get smacked in the short to medium term, but after the summer doldrums Gold and Silver will have the energy to move much higher finishing the rounded bottom (or saucer bottom) in Gold, and then the move upwards should get quite pronounced.

      As a result, yes the next few months should be the second best buying opportunity in the metals and miners (the best being the Dec 2015 low in the metals and the Mid-January 2016 low in the miners). Silver has been lagging gold in 2017 and early 2018, but when the real juice hits the PM sector, then Silver will kick it in and out-perform on a percentage basis.

  16. On February 27, 2018 at 9:48 am,
    spanky says:

    “Post PM wash will be an awesome buying opportunity of a lifetime.”

    I heard this in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and now 2018.

    Silver is done. The monthly charts are wrecked. It will be basing out for another 10 years.

  17. On February 27, 2018 at 9:58 am,
    Chartster says:

    Basing out for another 10 years..? ..Oh..Man.. That’s exactly what Mr.market maker wants you to think. After this wash, it’ll be time to buy.

    • On February 27, 2018 at 10:06 am,
      spanky says:

      Yeah sure, nothing goes down in a straight line. This “wash” will be followed by another “wash” in a few months. Sentiment is just too bullish!!! It’s always too bullish! Too many metals bulls. Need to cleanse sentiment the moment anyone other than Matthew and Ex are bullish metals.

      Meanwhile, the stockmarket goes up every day, and when it goes down, the metals get smashed.

      • On February 27, 2018 at 5:30 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        spanky you are so jaded that it is comical.

        There is a Daily Sentiment Index in Gold that does a fine job of gauging the metrics, and it doesn’t give a flip what anyone on this tiny blog thinks. Like Bob M. mentioned, when the DSI is back down to 10-20 then it will mark a good spot for a reversal.

        http://www.trade-futures.com/DsiReport.html

        I haven’t always been bullish on the metals and sure wasn’t in 2013, 2014 or 2015 (except Jan of 2015 where I thought a breakout was starting). I was even more reserved in early 2016, although bullish, until I saw the overhead resistance levels, peaks, and Moving Averages taken out. Once I saw that the proof was in the pudding and we had entered a new Bull market.

        • On February 27, 2018 at 5:32 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I will also say that in every year even 2012-2015, there were tradable rallies and bullish setups in the miners, because, as you say so often – nothing moves up or down in a straight line.

          There are opportunities to go long or to short every year. If you are so convinced of the metals wash out, then sell your stocks and short it. Pretty simple.

  18. On February 27, 2018 at 10:16 am,
    Chartster says:

    I agree with you about the general markets and PMs going down together. I’ve actually been waiting on this for over two years.

    I think the metals will fall for a few months hard washing people out. And the NYSE will continue to get routed for many months longer. There is good fundamental reasons for it to happen that way.

  19. On February 27, 2018 at 3:48 pm,
    GH says:

    One of these days maybe you’ll put your money where your mouth is?

    If you’re so sure of your conclusions, trade them. It’s an educational and humbling experience.

    • On February 27, 2018 at 5:34 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      +1 spanky is all bark no bite. If he had conviction of his posts he wouldn’t be following the metals markets or wasting his time here, he’d be all in Amazon, and short the miners. He claims to hold his Silver miners (aka “utter trash”) for the capital gains he has in him which is poppycock.