2018 Outlook – US Markets, Bonds, Precious Metals
Doc joins me today to shares his outlook for this year on the US equity markets, treasuries, and the precious metals. While he does not see any major fireworks (at least through the vast majority of the year) there is a general shift going on that we will all be watching.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Doc, the courage of his convictions. Thanks for the input.
I gold advisor.com has an a reality check moment for we silver enthusiasts in his latest website commentary
No wonder the world is going to hell in a hand basket ……..
Didnt I read about this gender neutral garbage being part of the NWO crap.
Dumb question I guess but I cant remember where I read it.
Anyway, it was all about the lucifarians conquering the world yadda yadda.
pilgrims,masons,zionists,rothchilds etc etc
Strange Justin would use “people kind” instead of mankind. lol
Yet another clue all crazy stuff might not be so crazy.
We no longer have conspiracy theories, people are on to that, now we have fake news, so much more believable.
Glad I am not in college anymore………..I would be kicked out the same day
gender neutral…..what a bunch of idiots…………jmo
GWOG – the Global War on Gender, because GWODrugs and GWOTerror just weren’t dishonest enough.
Talk about war………who is going to decide which fox hole these perverts get to share…
But, we have always had perverts,……..so, now it will be easier to see who is weird,strange, not the same as……LOL
These are subhuman beings so what does that say about those who take them seriously?
Say what you want about the significance of black candles, but since the low in January 2016, neither GDX nor $HUI have left a single one behind on the daily chart without closing below each one first. Today, so far GDXJ and GDX are putting in nice fat ones. IMO, at a true bottom you won’t see any black candles for weeks on end. In 2016, GDX rallied 40% over 3 weeks before one was finally put in.
black candles often mark bottoms, often mark tops, and often appear in the middle of an uptrend or the middle of a downtrend. They are considered mildly bearish, but on most charts you just see them all over the place, so that is why they are not a key criteria of any serious chartist I’ve ever come across. At least not as a solo indicator, and they are never the primary consideration on where to sell or buy.
Here is how they are generated on a chart:
“If the previous day’s closing value is less than or equal to the closing value for the current day, draw the current day’s candlestick in black.”
> Dojis, Hammers, and Harami patterns are WAY more valuable for marking turns.
+ 1
Utube google deep state revenge……………..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-02/infowars-bureau-chief-youtube-account-terminated-no-explanation
“Q”……gone missing…..
The “large speculators” are net short silver on this week’s CoT. Has this ever happened before?
Needless to say the commercial short interest is the lowest its been in over a year, although I can’t see data further back (e.g., to compare it to their position in December 2015). This has to be screamingly bullish for silver.
The gold CoTs otoh are neutral at best and aren’t that far away from levels that have actually marked tops.
Have we ever seen such a discrepancy in CoT reports before between gold and silver???
Look For a rally in silver in about 2 weeks.
Duly noted. Thanks Doc !
Morris Hubbartt gets it:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt030218/sil.png
Lemme get this straight. He thinks FNV bottomed simply because it reached the target price on a H&S top? Ok.
Actually, it hasn’t even reached its target yet. Would be closer to $63.
Exactly. It hasn’t even reached its H&S target, which means that you don’t have it straight. Morris does not think FNV bottomed “simply because it reached the target price on a H&S top.” Back to the drawing board for you.
I bought a lot of FNV@26 and have never sold a share. It’s a keeper.
I highly doubt it.
It’s possible given the silver CoT picture that these silver miners, which have been absolutey horrendous in absolute and relative terms for 19-20 months now, might actually trend sideways for a week or two before rolling over. Heck they might even put in a decent candle or two to suck in the likes of Hubbart as they get more confirmation that a double bottom is in.
SILJ looked incredibly weak today. I highly doubt we would have gotten action like today if they were going to scream higher from Monday. And even if they do, they will be shorted with impunity when they get remotely close to being overbought.
Wonder what he was saying about December’s low. Was probably all excited then too. “This is it! Get long!” Yeah, ok.
WOW, you are out of it, spanky! If he’s smart, of course Morris said to get long in December. GDXJ gained 20%+ while SILJ gained 27%+ following the December low. I sold all of my SILJ and eliminated my margin debt on that move and it was well worth it (and EASY).
Your linear “thinking” (extrapolation is more like it) is the source of your stress.
Oh yeah, IPT at .40 in two years LOL!
Too much damage was done to IPTs chart for it to not come back down after it hits its next peak, which I acknowledge could be pretty high (I think I said .85). It may not come back down to exactly.40, but it sure as hell isn’t hitting blue sky for another year or two at least. Again, JMHO. The only one who has been right about IPT over the last year is me. You said that it would bust up through its monthly Ichimoku cloud and I said it wouldn’t. I also said at least 6 months ago that it should reach a low in March ’18 based on the nadir of the cloud. It’s going to rally for 6-8 months straight up, but it’s going to come back down over the following 6 months.
That “too much damage to the chart” argument has no place in the mining space most of the time. The reason is that such “damage” is usually caused by large swings in the metals that they mine, not some sort of company-specific. Everyday main street businesses are very different which is why they are much less volatile.
So the reason to be bearish IPT is a negative outlook for silver, At least right now, that’s about it.
Remember, IPT plunged 90%+ in 2008 yet still gained 1,700% in the following 29 months, going from 17 cents to $3.14.
As for who was right about IPT, I wasn’t wrong to sell about 80% of my shares by the time it topped in 2016 at 1.28. I also gave the reasons (repeatedly) to buy it when it was 11 cents and everyone here was bearish the whole sector. When all the newsletter writers are “nice” enough to give the public a free pick, they do so when they need a bag holder. But I digress.
It’s not JUST damage. It’s damage over a sustained period of time and sustained periods of time at low levels. In this case a 90% decline over about 2 years. IPT has also famines down here for going on 6 or 7 months! No v recover here (although if it makes another leg down swiftly, it could get a v recovery). That will create a massive drag going forward on the long term MAs. After a huge run, you want to see “high” consolidations, like a large pennant or box. That way the the MAs can maintain their angle of ascent.
You are entitled to your wrong opinion.
Ok fine, if you are not calling “the” bottom.
But that’s certainly what is implied by your original post. Most things don’t go down in a straight line, I get it. Who wants to go long in a bear market though? You know, lower highs and lower lows. That profound technical concept.
Bull market corrections also sport lower highs and lower lows. You too can read about such profound technical concepts!
We aren’t in a Bear market. News-flash. That ended in metals in Dec of 2015.
Whatever man. 19 going on 20 months of lower lows and lower highs and 50+% declines qualifies as a bear market for most investors. Call it a cyclical bear if you want. And there is a small chance we get lower lows into summer (obviously it would be straight down), which would put us at 2 years of lower lows.
Meant would not be straight down.
Newsflash, Gold already took out the 2017 peak in early 2018 and is much closer to higher highs than lower lows. Way more bullish medium to longer term, than bearish.
Gold is nowhere close to the Dec 2015 low of $1045.40 over 2 years later. That is your clue.
Memo: we are talking about the miners, not gold.
Post-it note: The miners will catch up to their underlying commodities. That’s the point.
Thanks for your thoughts Doc. What is one of your favorite investing books? I have not done very well with the short term trading and would like to focus more on investing.
The all time winner would probably Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor”. It has to do with “value investments”. It was first published in 1949 with commentaries and new footnotes added to the forth edition by a well known fund manager, Jason Zweig. The new edition was published in 2003.
Thank you Doc.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Simon Moores And Caspar Rawles Talk With Matt Bohlsen From Trend Investing
Feb. 28, 2018 – Matt Bohlsen
Moores shares Benchmark’s views on lithium, graphite and the rare earths. He also gives an update on the megafactories.
Caspar Rawles gives Benchmark’s views on cobalt and nickel.
Bank of England chief Mark Carney slams Cryptocurrencies; urges action
CBC/Radio-Canada – 10 hrs ago
Liechtenstein’s Bank Frick Introduces ‘Direct’ Cryptocurrency Investment And Cold Storage
By William Suberg – Mar 01, 2018
Stuck in the Stratosphere with Crypto Wars — Issue No. 15
Your dose of crypto news and analysis from @BTO and @Goldfinger
March 2, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@bto/stuck-in-the-stratospherewith-crypto-wars-issue-no-15
Goldman’s Most Bullish on Commodities Since Supercycle Ended
By Mark Burton – February 1, 2018
Precious metals…and remembering way back.lol
The only sector if you dont buy right at the very bottom…and the bull market end you get absolutly killed. Stocks reverse spilt allmover the place…its the most volitile and dangerous investment one could get involved in…
Like Bob Moriarty said “Great basin gold you can’t lose” its long gone off the board…pooh your a bucket of sh#t. Lol.
And pms were in a correction…really. Gold stocks correct 70-90% of a bull market?
Also “golds stocks would bs the next Googles” really? When? Google
PM stocks after a run up are the only things that complete collapse when they become too popular. Hell even bit coin has performed waaaaaay better. I wouldn’t owen either these days. Have you looked at googles stock against any PM issue? Lol
Did you hear Bob Hoye about the Dow..? “Tremendous bull market”
Moriarty do you remember me arguing a few years ago with you and a few other gold bug fools….I was happy to blow out all my silver at $49 gold $1750 missed the top sadly.
I still dont own a bitcon, PM or a weed share.
I know alot of people and they dont care for 1 trick pony Bob.
There is no prudent investing there. Wow be a contrairion. Brilliant. If you actually understand how powefull a major recession is…Companies do massive cost cutting, dump employees and waist and that goes directly to the bottom line. Stocks are then way undervalued the the recession subsides and that is the opportunity and catalyst for a major bull market.
Bob M spend his days scaring folks from the real bull market. I’ve been hearing the stock markets going to crash again since the great recession….
The fact that people were so tramatized from the meltdown is the wall of worry that fuels the bull.
Im going to build me another office building that will stand the test of time.
Commercial lease space is the best RE market you can invest in.
Its too risky and time consuming trading large amounts of money.
Look at Sprott l…he absolutly killed his investors. I use to do some research for them but then questioned their ways. I subsequently sold all Sprott issues.
In the end take my advise an do what you like and always no one knows better than yourself so be safe!
Dont listen too Moriarty. He hasn’t gotten any macro event right and theres been a flock of black swans in the air for 7 years. Lol
I addition to Moriartys post. https://firstmacrocapital.com/about/
Jesus this is another typical example of crap investing. No real professional manager offers this kind of advice…This guys got a couple pics with his hero’s. Sinclare and Rogers..omg the 2 biggest failures in investing the last decade period. Rogers the perma bull on commodities that rode the COLLAPSE to the bottom and Sincair the perma gold bull nut case who self promoted the hell out of his lovely company…..was $9 in the good old days….now .45cents…rock and roll Bobbo…..wow golds awesome eh??? Ya its a hell of a safe haven….. Bob your a crook and a gold bug bullsh#ter… it is not fire insurance….if everything burned down it would useless. IDIOT end of story.
Since 2012, GDX:$HUI ratio has been trending higher. While 2016 did see a sharp decline, absolutely nothing changed on the weekly chart. The 200 WMA is still trending strongly upwards. In terms of peak weekly closing prices, we are already exceeding the 2016 highs. In a true bull market, why would this be the case? This shouldn’t be happening IMO.
For now it looks like the weekly ratio chart is bullish, with the MACD pointed up strongly and the 14 week RSI chopping bullishly. For this to be a true bull, price needs to break below the 200 WMA and start to turn that MA down. That won’t be happening any time soon. In fact, the ratio is just breaking out of a year long consolidation which should send it the weekly closing price well past the 2016 highs.