Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Thu 12 Apr, 2018

Intermediate Cycle Targets For Gold and Silver

After a number of comments have come in on the site regarding a pullback in the PMs into May, for the intermediate cycle, Doc and I decided to share some actual numbers. The intermediate cycle for gold looks to bottom in mid to late May but could be extended into early June. For silver the intermediate cycle should bottom slightly earlier in early May. Listen in to find out the targets.

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Richard PostmaCory Fleck
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  1. On April 12, 2018 at 1:17 pm,
    pardu says:

    Doc, Skeena dropped below .40 what is the upward potential for Skeena and what is your estimate for the timing?

    • On April 12, 2018 at 1:57 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Pardu, I believe I’ll look at purchasing SKE.V in the next 2-3 weeks based on technicals. Unless it has a massive good news report the stock shouldn’t rebound anytime soon. On a technical basis, I should be able to tell you what I think to the upside when this thing bottoms and stabilizes. I believe Cory likes this company a lot and you might ask him to give you his reasons. I’ll let you know when I purchase and then tell you what I expect for the upside for the medium term.

  2. On April 12, 2018 at 3:42 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Last Hurrah For The Zinc Price

    Frik Els | 19 minutes ago

  3. On April 12, 2018 at 3:53 pm,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Doc, I bought more PSLV on Tues.@6.10 just in case WWIII breaks out in Syria.
    I saw that a co-ed a Michigan has accused 3 basketball players of sexual assault.
    When Bob Knight was at IU the coeds were safe; it was his players who were at risk.

    • On April 12, 2018 at 4:18 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      BB, is there a premium on PSLV?

  4. On April 12, 2018 at 4:16 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    BB; you’ve just insulted my wolverines. It was 3 basketball players from Michigan State. Beilein doesn’t recruit thugs.

    • On April 12, 2018 at 6:46 pm,
      bonzo barzini says:

      Doc, I am sorry. Glad to hear it was not Michigan.
      PSLV had a net asset value of 6.25 when I bought it@6.10, so it was selling at a 2.4% discount. It is a closed end fund so this fluctuates. In a roaring bull silver market it might sell at a 15 or 20% premium.

      • On April 12, 2018 at 7:01 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Bonzo, I think your purchase was a very good one. The highest premium to NAV for PSLV was 34.22% on January 9th, 2012 and it has only traded below your 2.4% discount a few times in its 7.5 year history — all of them in just the last three months.
        Even the metals crash of 2013 resulted in a maximum discount of just 0.9%.

        • On April 13, 2018 at 7:38 am,
          bonzo barzini says:

          Thanks, Matthew. Must remember to sell PSLV when the premium reaches 20%.
          There are .377 oz of silver per share of PSLV, so to figure its NAV just multiply the spot silver price times .377

          • On April 13, 2018 at 8:18 am,
            Matthew says:

            Interesting; 377 is a Fibonacci number.

  5. On April 12, 2018 at 4:18 pm,
    Paul says:

    Doc when do you see silver breaking above $25, late 2019 or will we have to wait till 2020.

  6. On April 12, 2018 at 7:11 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Another Failed Breakout in Gold, Time To Panic?

    by @Goldfinger on April 12, 2018

    “This week gold attempted to break-out above $1360 for what is essentially its 3rd attempt to surpass the vaunted level this year (and 4th time in the last eight months). While the failed breakout and $30+ downside reversal certainly isn’t what gold bulls were hoping for, it’s not time to panic and throw in the towel on gold just yet.”

    “I view the price action of the last couple of days to be primarily noise driven, however, the burst above $1360 on heavy trading volume has certainly served to ‘soften up’ some of the resistance between $1360 and $1370. In fact, I view the odds of a successful breakout on the next push above $1360 to be quite good. This means that the current shakeout could be the final one before a much awaited rally above $1400. ”

    “While there has been a great deal of noise in markets this year, especially in gold, it’s worth noting that gold is clearly benefiting from some fundamental demand in the face of rising real interest rates:”

  7. On April 12, 2018 at 7:20 pm,
    Excelsior says:


    Posted April 12, 2018

    • On April 12, 2018 at 7:25 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Anaconda Mining sells 4,526 ounces of gold in Q1 2018, generating $7.6M in revenue

      April 12, 2018 /CNW/ – Anaconda Mining Inc. (ANX) (ANXGF)

      “With a strong start to 2018, Anaconda continues to demonstrate its ability to develop and successfully operate gold mining operations in Atlantic Canada. The Company produced 4,293 ounces of gold, well ahead of plan and on track for its 2018 production guidance of 18,000 ounces. We have successfully permitted and are in the process of developing the Stog’er Tight mine, which will start to contribute higher grade ore in the second quarter of 2018. At the end of March, Anaconda completed mining of the main Pine Cove Pit, which generated approximately $49.4 million in project level EBITDA1 over eight years. The main Pine Cove Pit will become the primary tailings facility, and we also plan to mine certain extensions to the pit in 2019. We also commenced environmental permitting for the Argyle Deposit, where we announced a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate in January 2018 and have since reported further high-grade intercepts. Also noteworthy, Anaconda has built a brand name and reputation as a socially responsible operator in Atlantic Canada, particularly in Newfoundland, and we are proud to have been recognized as a leader in Environmental Stewardship by Natural Resource Magazine. It’s another testament to the tremendously talented workforce at Anaconda, and the Company’s commitment to safe and responsible mining.”

      ~Dustin Angelo, President and CEO, Anaconda Mining Inc.

    • On April 13, 2018 at 6:10 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (ANX) (ANXGF) Anaconda Formally Commences Takeover Bid For (MAE) Maritime Resources Corp. At 64% Premium to Create Emerging Canadian Gold Producer With Significant Growth Profile

      April 13, 2018 /CNW/

      • On April 13, 2018 at 6:58 am,
        Excelsior says:

        A 64% premium to Maritime Resources holder is a very fair offer from Anaconda to merge the 2 companies and the combined company into the larger ANX production and development profile will be a real force in the Newfoundland and Nova Scotia jurisdictions.

        Anaconda is getting more and more interesting all the time. πŸ˜‰

        • On April 13, 2018 at 7:05 am,
          Excelsior says:

          From the news release this morning:

          “The Offer Consideration represents $0.16 per Maritime Share and represents a premium of approximately 64%, based on the 20-day volume weighted average prices of the Maritime Shares on the TSX Venture Exchange and the Anaconda Shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange immediately preceding the date the Offeror announced its intention to make an offer to Maritime Shareholders. All dollar amounts in this news release are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise specified.”


          It is very interesting that MAE is only up to $.125 instead of the fully valued takeover premium of $.16, so there is a very interesting arbitrage trade that is currently in place. This just goes to show how under-followed the Jr mining sector is, and how complacent most investors are to the move many of these miners will have to the upside over the next 2 years. Deep value for those that have the eyes to see it.

          • On April 13, 2018 at 7:13 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Often during a takeover the company being acquired will start off at a fraction of the value, but then by the end get up close to 90-95% fully valued. In this case there is a much larger gap.

  8. On April 12, 2018 at 7:31 pm,
    Excelsior says:


    April 11, 2018

    • On April 13, 2018 at 8:15 am,
      Ulf says:

      I used to own Kootenay. Man, they get punished. To me, it seems they have great properties to drill. If they continue with similar results, they should turn investors richer from here. Needs to be done first of course. Markets are ruthless. Any whispers in regards to Mexus? Feels like Monday could be a good day for an update, be it good or bad. Mxsg will make me a trainwreck, ha ha. At least it is exciting:-)
      have a nice weekend.

      • On April 13, 2018 at 8:31 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Hi Ulf,

        Yes, Kootenay has a very prospective land package and a few different exploration/development properties. Their flagship La Cigarra (from their Northhair Silver acquisition) is looking better and better all the time. It is exciting to see them hitting more and more higher grade intercepts now, as previously it was a lower grade open pit, but those new discoveries will extend the pit shell, improve the economics, and show there is much more room to expand that resource along strike.

        As for Mexus MXSG, they are producing gold & silver now and gradually ramping up the recovery process from the leach pads. The last 2 press releases were more for the proof of concept, but now that they are starting to have revenues coming out the other end of the Santa Elena mine it will help get them on more people’s radar. San Felix and El Scorpio are also in cue for production to start over the next year. I expect the share price to be an easy 10-20 bagger from it’s current valuation over the next 2-3 years.

        Cheers, and yes you have a good weekend as well.

        • On April 13, 2018 at 8:33 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Additional gold sales reported from Santa Elena project – Mexus Gold (MXSG)

          March 19th, 2018 (GLOBENEWSWIRE)

          CEO Paul Thompson added, β€œIt is great to see MarMar increasing the amount of gold being produced. Our shareholders should keep in mind that the amount produced was greater than what was netted due to the discount taken by the broker. MarMar will begin refining its own material which will eliminate the need for this broker. In addition, the mine engineer at the Santa Elena is pleased with the progress and expects a substantial increase in production moving forward.”

          • On April 13, 2018 at 8:35 am,
            Ulf says:

            You are my beacon of hope! . Let’s hope MarMar’s folks finally get it right. It will be awesome beyond words if they do.

          • On April 13, 2018 at 10:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for the kind words and I’m just looking at their low costs, the grade, the Merrill Crowe processing system being in place, and that they have 2 other properties going into production in the next 12 months. Once they are producing from all 3 and generating revenues, with minimal debt, it should start getting more investors attention. Of course, but that time it will have already moved up in share-price significantly from where it is today. This stock was at $.20 when they were pre-production, and now they are under $.03 when they are actually starting to produce. That’s a big value perception arbitrage if I’ve ever seen one. πŸ™‚

          • On April 13, 2018 at 11:42 pm,
            Ulf says:

            One would hope they would at least reach the same share price as when it was in pre-production mode. i guess it just needs to be proven that they can do it. Start ups are, as you know, tricky and time consuming. I have always thought that they should crank a few drill holes in the high grade surface vein. I mean that would give the market a religious experience if put in a PR, assuming they are as great as has been told in the past, he he. Oh well, we will see what happens. To me, the most important thing is that they are able to show profit. A money surplus will make it so much easier to expand things further. All fingers crossed! Looking forward to the next update.
            best wishes

          • On April 16, 2018 at 1:01 am,
            Ulf says:

            Oh dear. interesting PR out today. I would not mind if you wrote a few words about the MarMar termination. I can’t say I think it is bad, if they have not contributed, I am happy they are gone. We own the mine 100% now. But what will happen now? Delays that are long, or delays that are short. Twice the gold for us when the mine actually starts. If you have any words to share, I would gladly read them. The Ihub board is not the best place to get solid thoughts from πŸ™‚
            best regrads

  9. On April 13, 2018 at 1:25 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Not time to panic I agree but this continued 1360 failure is becoming a concern. Like I said a couple if days ago, this has almost become clockwork and it is becoming increasingly clear that this resistance gold is dealing with is the sternest test it has faced since the bear market plunge began in earnest in April 2013.

    I am certainly not “in the know” nor am an expert but from what I can see the only meaningful target gold can worry about in the near term is this aformentioned 1360 region. Until this is breached (if it does indeed occur), I certainly wont be getting carried away with any moves seen in gold

    • On April 13, 2018 at 8:31 am,
      Matthew says:

      Just focus on gold taking out the 377 week MA (currently at almost 1370). After that, the 2016 high (1377.50) should fall quickly as gold goes to at least 1420-1430.

      • On April 13, 2018 at 10:37 am,
        Excelsior says:


  10. On April 13, 2018 at 3:49 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    What will be the catalyst for gold to pierce and hold this price region Matthew???

    The chart is interesting in that it shows gold is just humming along below this area recently. One way or another we get a breakout or breakdown in the near future, do we not?

    • On April 14, 2018 at 12:13 am,
      Matthew says:

      I never concern myself with catalysts. The charts indicate that it will happen and the fundamentals (debt, unfunded liabilities, rising interest rates, etc.) are aligned with the charts.

      However, there’s no doubt that Trump’s deficit spending combined with tax cuts will hastened the arrival of the breakout and his actions in Syria are sure to hasten it further. (The charts telegraphed the inevitability of the breakout almost two years ago.)

      by the way, it’s not fear that drives gold to sustainable new heights when wars are started, it’s the financing of those wars and the impact that has on the currency.

    • On April 14, 2018 at 12:15 am,
      Matthew says:

      If there is a breakdown, it’s significance will be limited in terms of price if not time.

  11. On April 14, 2018 at 12:25 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Your last point is a valid one and if that is the case then I suppose a weakening dollar (for whatever reason) would be the “catalyst” for obvious reasons.

    • On April 14, 2018 at 7:48 am,
      Matthew says:

      Yes, that could be the catalyst but, all things considered, a weakening dollar has been a clear inevitability for some time. Nothing has happened to negate the message that the charts gave us in 2016 but the action did not give us a date.

      Rick Ackerman, Jeff Kern, and Charles Nenner each have very different methods but all agree that news should be completely ignored and my own experience puts me in complete agreement with them. Most people will never accept this and that makes sense since most people are always wrong. CNBC’s hindsight prognostications are for them.