Market Wrap – USD, US Markets, Metals
Doc joins me to wrap up the markets today. Since we did not chat in the past couple days I get his thoughts on the rise in the USD. We also discuss the US markets ability to climb back today after it was looking pretty bad half way through. Finally we provide a metals outlook.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Every variable was set for the miners to rally hard today, and they did nothing except fade throughout the day and close near the lows. Blah.
Totally SAD………there is no way there is not manipulation……., like the FED is not manipulating the currency…….LOL
Silver is a TOTAL JOKE………JMO
The $xau has a clear h&s on the daily chart that projects to 75. Yikes. Typical ugly action in the miners. And because it is the miners you know with absolute certainty the pattern will play out to completion. Retest of the lows incoming.
Easily manipulated gold and silver are floundering while unmanipulatable cryptocurrencies fly.
Interesting thought Marty!
Holger Zschaepitz
“That’s how the beginning of a Emerging Markets crisis looks like? #Argentina Peso world’s worst currency this year w/ -17% YTD, #Turkey Lira -10.4% YTD, #Russia Ruble down 9%.”
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/992305284008759297
click on that chart of currencies to enlarge it. Very interesting.
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/992305284008759297
Here I “biggie-sized” that chart:
California Warns of a Second Energy Crisis
By Mark Chediak – May 3, 2018,
“The state is going to find it increasingly difficult to ensure it has enough electricity to keep the lights on as more Californians leave utilities to buy their power directly from resources like rooftop solar panels and community choice aggregators that contract directly with generators, California Public Utilities Commission President Michael Picker said. As much as a quarter of the state’s energy demand may be sourced outside of utilities by the end of this year, he said.”
“We have a hodgepodge of different providers,” Picker said in a telephone interview. “If we aren’t careful, we could slide back to the kind of crisis we faced in 2000 and 2001.”
Picker said the state is already suffering from its lack of preparation. Electric utilities aren’t sure how many customers they’ll have in the future and have become increasingly hesitant about signing long-term contracts with power generators, he said. Owners of natural gas-burning power plants, which often fire up to help supply electricity when demand peaks, are having a hard time making money.
“The central decision making that we use for keeping the grid reliable, safe and affordable is splintering,” Picker said in the state report issued Thursday. “In the last deregulation, we had a plan, however flawed. Now, we are deregulating electric markets through dozens of different decisions and legislative actions, but we do not have a plan.”
California in their desire to embrace Solar and shun Nuclear (shutting down their 2 nuclear reactors) is not spiraling into a mess because of inconsistencies and fluctuations to their energy grid. This is just like what happened in Germany when they phased out their nuclear reactors and got into a mix.
If they really wanted a solid back-up energy plan for when the lights go off or the grid is fluctuating, then Nuclear offers 24/7 stable solid Base-load energy. It turns out in their zeal to be so cutting edge they are now traveling along the razors edge.
The newer Nuclear plant designs are much safer, more efficient, and still zero carbon but run all day and all night, unlike Solar that averages six hours a day due to clouds, rain, fog, and a little thing call night. 🙂
Clueless politicians, lobbyists, and do-gooders are running that state into the ground.
not = now
California is one big razor’s edge, what with overcrowding, pollution, water problems, gang control, earthquake threat, possible tsunamis, and government overspending and huge debt, it is an accident waiting for a place to happen. DT
agreed.
PSA Peugeot Citroën’s DS Brand to Sell Only Electrified Vehicles Starting In 2025
The French brand’s first all-electric model debuts later this year.
By Stephen Edelsteinmay – May 2, 2018
France is one of the most pro-nuclear countries there is, and they’ll be powering all those EVs with Nuclear energy. Just something to consider….
Gold & Silver Price Update – May 2, 2018 + Valuation of Gold Miners
iGold Advisor – May 2, 2018
I didn’t expect the US dollar to break above the upper tine of the pitchfork and the 233 day moving averages, but it’s looking strong right at the moment. If the breakout sticks, 94.5-95 seems a likely target, based on both this and weekly charts:
The fact that it did so from an overbought reading and before pulling back, increases the chances that the breakout will fail and become a bull trap.
I’m a dollar bear too, but this reeks of 2014-15 in a way. Back then the USD went on an unreal vertical move that defied every technical indicator. Totally unnatural market action (I’ll go as far as saying it was statistically impossible). Such a move is only possible in a world of infinite credit and unaccountable CBs with the license to print at will.
It might push higher, especially after a pullback, but I’m not worried at all about another 2014 type move. The spell has been broken for all but the dumb money and it would take a long time and significantly higher levels to turn the bigger picture bullish again.
So far I am happy with today’s action in the miners. I actually want the HUI to close slightly red. A red candle (and even better would be a hollow red candle) would be the perfect way to cancel yesterdays large black candle. It doesn’t mean we are out of the woods, but to me it means that if price were to subsequently move higher Monday, that rally would be pure and untainted.
I actually like $gold’s candle action over the last few days. We got a rare (for $gold) inverted hollow red hammer candle that closed below the prior day’s solid red candle and then yesterday we formed a swing low in $gold. Not only that but that swing low was a lower low than the prior daily cycle low at $1303 (a “failed” daily cycle), which means that that swing low could also mark the intermediate cycle low in $gold.
My only doubts about the IC low for $gold being struck on May 1 at $1302.30 would be that the 5 week RSI never reached oversold (which every other IC low has generated since 2016) and that it would be a relatively short IC at 20 weeks. A more conventional IC length would be 25 or 26 weeks, which coincidentally would take us to mid-June, which is also the time for the next FOMC meeting where they will raise interest rates.
I’ll just add that currently SIL and SILJ are positive for the day, which I actually am not keen about. I do not want to leave behind a black candle on the charts. Yes, it’s not a big a deal for anything other than $HUI (which hasn’t left behind a black candle on the daily chart since the low in Jan. 2016), but an open black candle suggests that the subsequent rally will come all the way back down (like SIL’s Dec. 15 ’17 candle did).
SILJ also has two gaps on the daily chart–a 3 cent gap from April 10 and a 4 cent gap from May 1.
Greg Hunter interviews Charles Nenner
I have not watched it yet,,,,,,but, Nenner was calling for $2500 gold last yr (at year end)…..if, my memory serves me correctly…..Didn’t happen.
or maybe that was $1250…….
here is his old comments on gold…. start at 11:30 mark
https://usawatchdog.com/get-totally-out-of-stocks-deflation-coming-charles-nenner/
forget my statement on $2500……
HUI putting in a hideous looking reversal candle today, right at the 20 DMA. While the downside damage could be limited, it probably won’t be. AXU another one that put in a nasty reversal candle today and closed at the low.