Chris Temple from The National Investor – Wed 16 May, 2018

Lots To Talk About – Yield and Oil Breakouts, USD Rising, Gold Falling, And Trade Talks

I am taking the morning to record a couple editorials rather than swing by the Cambridge House show. However I will be there later today for a couple panels and company meetings. In the meantime there is a lot to talk about in the markets. Yields breaking out along with oil, the USD rising, and gold falling all need to be considered in the big picture. We also look at the lack of any trade deals being settled.

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Chris TempleCory Fleck
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  1. On May 16, 2018 at 10:02 am,
    Matthew says:

    This is off topic but ISVLF just made it to 30 cents — precisely as Charles expected two weeks ago.

  2. On May 16, 2018 at 10:56 am,
    Charles says:

    Not to be too cynical, but I was off by $0.0001. As a result my order went unfilled! I should have known better than to use a round number!

    • On May 16, 2018 at 11:39 am,
      Matthew says:

      I hate it when that happens!

  3. On May 16, 2018 at 1:13 pm,
    Charles says:

    Large volume spike. Could it be capitulation low?

    • On May 16, 2018 at 6:49 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It sure wouldn’t surprise me if it is.

  4. On May 17, 2018 at 7:14 am,
    Charles says:

    1/3 of my original order executed. A 1/3 I changed to .305 and it executed. I await the other 1/3. I am thinking it could go a bit lower, but I didn’t want to miss out on the potential upside which I think is far greater at this point than the downside risk. It will be interesting to see what happens. hopefully the run from earlier this year wasn’t just another bull trap.

    • On May 17, 2018 at 9:34 am,
      Matthew says:

      I think you’re playing it extremely well and will be very (VERY) surprised if we are dealing with a bull trap.

  5. On May 17, 2018 at 10:09 am,
    Charles says:

    Thanks. The balance executed so I’m all in. Seems like it wants to hold 0.30. Thanks Matthew for all your insights and encouragement.

    • On May 17, 2018 at 11:13 am,
      Matthew says:

      You’re welcome.

      Gold doesn’t look bad at all. At least not yet…

  6. On May 17, 2018 at 11:22 am,
    Charles says:

    Thanks for the chart. You probably have indicated this several times in the past, but why do you track the 89 and 233 week moving averages?

    • On May 17, 2018 at 12:10 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Those are the Fibonacci numbered alternatives to the widely followed 100 and 200 week moving averages.
      I look at them all, both exponential and simple , and have noticed that some “work” better than others sometimes (but am not making that claim in the GLD chart above).

      Based on my experience, the Fibonacci-based moving averages are often the ones to watch. For example, those who focused only on the 200 week MA for gold in 2016 were less prepared and much more shocked/disappointed/bearish when gold plunged in Q4. They had enjoyed 15 weekly closes above that MA while those who focused on the 233 week MA never had more than one in a row. So we can see how one group of investors might have had a lot more confidence than was warranted based on that single tool.

  7. On May 17, 2018 at 12:22 pm,
    Charles says:

    Interesting. Thanks.

  8. On May 17, 2018 at 12:26 pm,
    Charles says:

    Matthew – One other question. How do you post charts in your comments?

    • On May 17, 2018 at 1:15 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Click on “Permalink” below the chart, then click “Copy Link”
      Then, place your cursor in the comment box here at kereport and right-click to show your options. Then choose “Paste” with a left-click.

      I don’t recall if a subscription is required for that feature.

  9. On May 17, 2018 at 1:30 pm,
    Charles says:

    Okay thanks.

  10. On May 22, 2018 at 6:51 am,
    Charles says:

    Let’s see if it works.