Weekend Show – Sat 16 Jun, 2018

Hour 1 – Central Bank Recap and Gold Weakness

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We all knew there was a lot of news that could move markets this week and we were not disappointing. The Fed, ECB and BoJ all released statements along with economic data out of the US and China. The takeaway from the markets was continued US equity and dollar strength and gold and silver weakness, all thanks to the drop on Friday.

On the first hour on this week’s show we focus on the importance of the central bank statements which were all on the hawkish bend and the drop in precious metals. The takeaway is very much don’t worry about the drop in gold and silver but understand it will be while before a major breakout occurs.

  • Segment 1: We kick off with a comprehensive recap of the Fed and ECB statements with Marc Chandler, Head of Global Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
  • Segment 2: Avi Gilburt shares his thoughts on the gold and silver sectors. We review the GLD, silver and GDX charts as well as a quick comment on the US markets.
  • Segment 3: John Kaiser provides his thoughts on the recent drill results out of Skeena Resources and a look at a zinc company he thinks is being ignored.
  • Segment 4: We wrap up the first hour with the President of the Mises Institute Jeff Deist with comments on the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell.

Exclusive Company Updates and News

Segment 1

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Segment 2

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Segment 3

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Segment 4

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Marc ChandlerAvi GilburtJohn KaiserJeff Deist

  1. On June 16, 2018 at 3:24 am,
    Tad says:

    Thanks boys & girls. Looking forward to the show..
    Not liking the current PM market action I have to say..

    • On June 16, 2018 at 4:58 am,
      Tad says:

      Well, Avi has cheered me up.
      Also been liking the Skeena story for a while now.. “glass half full” sentiment coming on that soon I hope: Before glass overflowing!

      • On June 16, 2018 at 7:46 am,
        silverdollar says:

        +1 on Avi comment.

      • On June 16, 2018 at 8:38 am,
        Matthew says:

        What does yesterday’s action do to the charts? Avi: “Nothing.”
        Hey, someone gets it!

        • On June 16, 2018 at 10:18 am,
          Excelsior says:

          The large move down on Friday was simply short-term chart damage, but on par with what one would expect in the Summer Doldrums.

          I agree that this was just a pimple on a flea in the overall big picture, and definitely not medium to longer term damage.

          • On June 16, 2018 at 10:42 am,
            Matthew says:

            I guess that depends on what we call short term. For some, it could be two days, for others, two weeks or even two months. If we settle on weeks, not days or months, there’s been no net damage. In fact, the bullish case is strengthened by this shakeout as are the odds that the next move up might start sooner rather than later.

          • On June 16, 2018 at 10:57 am,
            Matthew says:

            I misstated that. There’s obviously also no damage if we’re looking months out.

          • On June 16, 2018 at 11:10 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, agree, a few weeks of choppy sideways to down action isn’t a big deal, and months out things are still looking quite bullish I still believe we have a chance at taking out the $1377.50 high from 2016 later this year in the September surge.

    • On June 16, 2018 at 8:51 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The Future of Gold Exploration Is Under Cover

      Visual Capitalist | 2 days ago


      • On June 16, 2018 at 9:00 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Gold Bullish on Fed Hike 3

        Adam Hamilton – Zeal Intelligence | about 19 hours ago

        “Gold weathered the Federal Reserve’s 7th rate hike of this cycle this week. Gold-futures speculators and to a lesser extent gold investors have long feared Fed rate hikes, selling ahead of them. Higher rates are viewed as the nemesis of zero-yielding gold. But contrary to this popular belief, past Fed rate hikes have proven very bullish for gold. This latest hike once again leaves gold set up for a major rally in coming months.”

        “The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meets 8 times per year to make monetary-policy decisions. These can really impact the financial markets, and thus are closely watched by gold-futures speculators. These elite traders wield wildly-outsized influence on short-term gold price action due to the truly extreme leverage inherent in gold-futures trading. What they do before and after FOMC decisions really impacts gold.”


        • On June 16, 2018 at 9:33 am,
          b says:

          Mining News Digest
          Saturday 16 June 2018

          Trump trade war blows up big week for mining majors

          A week choc-a-bloc with billion dollar copper, iron ore and cobalt deals ends with huge drop in prices and sell-off in stocks of mining’s biggest names.


    • On June 16, 2018 at 10:06 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold Market Update
      Clive Maund – Wednesday, June 06, 2018


  2. On June 16, 2018 at 4:06 am,
    CFS says:

    Tommy Robinson in solitary confinement. Hopefully safe for a while.
    (I wonder if this is a psychological game going on.)

  3. On June 16, 2018 at 4:25 am,
    CFS says:

    One major reason for the drop in the dollar earlier this year was a major sale by Russia of its US treasury holdings. (China is slowly selling off its treasury holdings.)

    Russia is not covered much in US MSM. People here sometimes look at RT, but another source of info (propaganda) is e.g.:

    Russia also appears to have slowed accumulating gold, but this may just be temporary.

    • On June 16, 2018 at 7:56 am,
      b says:

      Russia dumps half of its US Treasury bonds
      Russia has held a major selloff of US Treasury bonds, dumping some $47bn-worth of papers and momentarily dropping six places on a list of major foreign holders of US securities, recently released statistics for April have shown. @RT

  4. On June 16, 2018 at 4:44 am,
    CFS says:

    If you shares in any South African mining company, you might watch:
    The push is towards extreme socialism/cpmmunism.

    • On June 16, 2018 at 8:35 am,
      b says:

      The Hitler of South Africa tells white people he won’t kill them. . . yet
      June 16, 2018 0
      by Simon Black, Sovereign Man:

      Earlier this week while most of the world was transfixed on the World Cup, the Trump/Kim handshake, or a multitude of other sundry events, Julius Malema, aka the Hitler of South Africa, was busy telling white people in his country that he’s not going wage genocide against them. Yet.

      In an interview with RT World News published this week, Malema said, “We have not called for the killing of white people. At least for now. I can’t guarantee the future.”

  5. On June 16, 2018 at 9:07 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Filtering Out the Noise – Why Speculation is So Tough!
    by FI FIGHTER on June 14, 2018

    in Cobalt, Investing, Speculating

    “Temper that greed during the hyperbolic moonshots, and remember in the back of your mind that markets are cyclical (especially commodities)… When you’re sitting on MASSIVE profits, never forget to de-risk positions and take back your principal (and perhaps even more than that)… On the flipside, when it feels like a perfect storm of bad news, you’ve got to be able to keep calm, stop looking at the price charts every 5 minutes, and remember to focus mostly on the underlying macro trends/fundamentals… If your speculation thesis is fully intact (and arguably getting even stronger by the minute), it’s typically not the wrong move to get more aggressive and do your accumulation work when others are shitting themselves and trampling over each other, headed towards the exits…”

    “It’s not easy… If it was, everyone would be doing it…”

    “It can feel like a total rollercoaster ride…”

    “It’s without question, lots of times, a very boring Game of Patience…”

    Filtering Out the Noise – Why Speculation is So Tough! by FI FIGHTER on JUNE 14, 2018 in COBALT, INVESTING, SPECULATING

  6. On June 16, 2018 at 9:39 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Billions in U.S. Solar Projects Shelved After Trump Panel Tariff
    Nichola Groom (Reuters)

    “President Donald Trump’s tariff on imported solar panels has led U.S. renewable energy companies to cancel or freeze investments of more than $2.5 billion in large installation projects, along with thousands of jobs, the developers told Reuters.”

    “That’s more than double the about $1 billion in new spending plans announced by firms building or expanding U.S. solar panel factories to take advantage of the tax on imports.”

    “The tariff’s bifurcated impact on the solar industry underscores how protectionist trade measures almost invariably hurt one or more domestic industries for every one they shield from foreign competition. Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs, for instance, have hurt manufacturers of U.S. farm equipment made with steel, such as tractors and grain bins, along with the farmers buying them at higher prices.”


    • On June 16, 2018 at 11:41 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Chinese solar panel makers urge government to delay subsidy cuts
      Thursday, 07 June, 2018 – Reuters

      “Industry representatives say they still need government backing to compete with traditional power generators”

      “Chinese solar panel makers have urged Beijing to delay surprise subsidy cuts and relax a cap on new projects, protesting that the policy will damage a sector already struggling financially.”


  7. On June 16, 2018 at 9:51 am,
    Matthew says:

    ABX bottomed over 3 months ago:


  8. On June 16, 2018 at 9:54 am,
    Matthew says:

    GG bottomed more than 6 months ago:


  9. On June 16, 2018 at 10:25 am,
    Matthew says:

    IPT bottomed more than 6 months ago:


    • On June 16, 2018 at 10:47 am,
      Matthew says:

      IPT is currently up over 70% since the December low while silver is up 5.5%. That’s a bull market leverage of about 12 to 1.

      • On June 16, 2018 at 11:16 am,
        Excelsior says:


  10. On June 16, 2018 at 11:09 am,
    Matthew says:

    The miners look pretty good versus gold.
    XAU:GOLD weekly:


    • On June 16, 2018 at 11:17 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The miners have been stronger than gold lately, and Silver has recently started outperforming Gold. That’s always an encouraging situation to be in.

  11. On June 16, 2018 at 11:23 am,
    cmc says:

    You can be an expert at determining the reasons for failures to win wars, but at least president Trump hasn’t gotten us into any new wars.

    • On June 16, 2018 at 11:47 am,
      cmc says:

      Sorry, my comment was meant for hour 2. Wrong forum.

  12. On June 16, 2018 at 12:18 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    REALIST NEWS -‘Stormy Daniels’ walks out after customers paid – How’s that for character?


  13. On June 16, 2018 at 12:26 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The Canadian dollar broke an obvious support on its way to one that most people don’t know exists:

  14. On June 16, 2018 at 1:56 pm,
    Matthew says:
  15. On June 17, 2018 at 9:30 am,
    Excelsior says:

    The Next Bull Market Move Interview – Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital

    by @bullmarketmove – June 17, 2018

    “Kerem, it’s great to be joining you again. In short, value must be determined through quantitative means. The company’s target commodity, the background of the management team, the existing shareholder base, the company’s exposure to geopolitical risk, the company’s balance sheet, upcoming catalysts, etc are all qualitative factors that need to be heavily considered. However, none of these qualitative factors directly help you determine an actual fair value for the company in question.”

    “Depending on the stage of the company, there are different ways to quantitatively assess value. Generally I’ll classify resource companies into one of five different categories and then evaluate them appropriately.”

    “These five different categories are (1) producers, (2) royalty companies, (3) development stories, (4) prospect generators, and (5) “cash boxes”…..”

    (The rest of this article is very good and worth the quick read on how Matt values the different stages of companies. I agree with many of the points he makes about each individual sub-sector)


  16. On June 17, 2018 at 11:13 am,
    Matthew says:

    In case anyone missed IPT’s press release a couple weeks ago:

    “The Company will continue exploration with the goal of putting some of the 5,000 + compiled old mine workings in the Zacualpan and Capire districts on a faster track to potential production and build mineral inventories for mining. Exploration is continuing at San Ramon Deeps in 2018 with ongoing progress at a potential northern extension of similar San Ramon deposits beyond quartz block underground.

    Starting in 2017, IMPACT has made a commitment to realize further value on our large land package and targets, including divesting Zacatecas assets and greenfield exploration work at Santa Teresa. Earlier in terms of exploration progress, IMPACT had greenfield success at Santa Teresa and continued to delineate targets with more geological work. Previous results included 197 channel and rock chip samples over 1g/t Au and several over 114.5g/t Au.

    In light of higher base metals prices, specifically zinc which has increased from USD $1,500/tonne in 2016 to over USD $3,000/tonne in 2018, IMPACT is pursuing the re-opening of its zinc concentrate circuit for potential zinc concentrate sales later in the year. As a reference in 2011, IMPACT produced over 1,200 tonne zinc per annum.”

    • On June 17, 2018 at 12:03 pm,
      Charles says:

      Thanks for Sharing Matthew. I missed this news piece. IPT got the pullback Friday, but did not reverse in the afternoon. It will be interesting to see if it follows through to the upside next week or falls back further and back into its previous consolidation range.

      • On June 17, 2018 at 12:42 pm,
        Matthew says:

        It’s hard to guess what will happen but Friday’s performance was impressive when you consider how the rest of the sector was doing and the fact that IPT has a big gap under it from the day before. It closed at .39 on Wednesday and never went below .43 on Friday. That 4 cent difference represents 8 bid increments and about 10%.

        • On June 17, 2018 at 12:43 pm,
          Matthew says:
        • On June 17, 2018 at 1:04 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I think was Peter Eliades who came up with using the 5 month EMA and 25 month SMA, but I’ve found that the weekly versions are also useful — no surprise given the fractal structure of the universe.


          • On June 17, 2018 at 1:12 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On June 17, 2018 at 1:29 pm,
            Charles says:

            Nice chart.

        • On June 17, 2018 at 1:29 pm,
          Charles says:

          That is a good way of looking at it. Surprising to me that it held up so well given the carnage. I have learned to trust what the chart is telling you and have realize that you can safely invest even if an index might be telling you to stay out of a sector. IPT still could catch up to the downside, but hasn’t shown it wants to do that yet.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 1:56 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Well that’s the difference between those who understand the charts and those who think they understand the charts. The more you know, the more you’ll trust them.

            We’ve had to be patient since 2016, but the significance of the action that year has not been diminished one bit. I won’t mention any names, but even some chartist newsletter writers don’t grasp this fact.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 2:18 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Significant resistance at 70 cents:

          • On June 17, 2018 at 3:37 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Matthew – I’d completely agree that:

            “We’ve had to be patient since 2016, but the significance of the action that year has not been diminished one bit.”

            I’ve read a number of editorials and heard a number of interviews from the recent resource investing shows and even here on the KER where pundits have dismissed that move in 2016 as nothing more than a “dead cat bounce” or a “relief rally” but those comments are wrong on many levels technically.

            First of all, a “dead cat bounce” or “relief rally” is when an equity is still in a cyclical bear market and bounces, but will resume the downtrend; and that is clearly NOT what happened in Gold as it has never gotten anywhere close to the $1045.40 low from December 2015 in 2 and 1/2 years. In fact, some pundits seem to have amnesia that in 2018 the high in Gold actually already took out the 2017 high, so Gold is much closer to making new highs if anything.

            When Gold surged for the first 8 months of 2016 it took out a number of prior peaks & the 2013 spike down trough that really accelerated the bear market, and those hadn’t been cleared in years. That makes 2016 an “impulse leg” higher because it took out the prior most recent peaks, (but actually took out about 3 of them).

            Next up, Gold pricing surged up through a number of key prior moving averages (233, 144, 89) day EMAs, that it hadn’t in years. This was also true on the weekly charts. Also the EMAs In addition, the EMAs reverted back to the shorter on top and the longer on the bottom, where in the bear market the shorter were on the bottom and the longer were on top. Those were 2 more key clues that the bear market had truly end in the metal in Dec 2015. Relief rallies don’t do that.

            Lastly, 2016 broke down most of the normal seasonality trends in an outside year where the metals continued rallying through the PDAC curse in March, and then powering through the remainder of Spring and into the Summer Doldrums to new highs. Very unusual and strong action. Finally, Gold had gotten too far ahead of itself and corrected back down during late Aug – Oct (a time that is typically a strong seasonal period for Gold). That move up for the 8 months into August showed how strong the energy being released was and was yet another tell that this was not just a fluke or a relief rally.

            Pundits that are now dismissing the move up in 2016 as some kind of novelty, or just a nice little bounce don’t seem to understand the gravity of that move up, the overhead resistance that was sliced through like a hot knife through butter, and how that definitively ended the bear market once and for good.

            Gold has been in a new bull market since the tail end of Dec 2015 and has been making higher lows ever since. Unless Gold takes out $1238 to the downside then even that trend upwards has not been negated either.


    • On June 17, 2018 at 3:01 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      That will be a nice base metals credit if Impact starts producing Zinc concentrate again. It does make sense in this higher priced Zinc environment to capitalize on those assets and make hay while the sun is shinning. Americas Silver and Silvercorp are doing quite well now on costs due to their Zinc/Lead credits.

      • On June 17, 2018 at 3:34 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I don’t know about Silvercorp, but zinc and lead represent more than just credits for Americas Silver. Does silver make for even half of its revenue? Whatever the percentage is, it’s those base metals that can be credited for much of the company’s resilience since 2016.

        • On June 17, 2018 at 3:43 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, that is true with the current strategy for Americas Silver, and for anyone following along with the last 2 years of their Corporate Presentations, interviews, and press releases, that was their exact plan (to focus on the Zinc and Lead, and preserve their Silver for when the prices are higher).

          I completely agree with Darren’s point that there is absolutely no reason to go mine their higher grade silver stopes right now and raise their costs to near $15-$16 an ounce just to make a $1-$2 margin, when they can save the Silver for higher prices north of $20 and make far more down the road.

          Instead, they are still mining about 1-2 Million ounces of Silver a year, but are really focused on about 2-3 times as much of their Zinc & Lead and that makes their AISC about $3-$4 silver equivalent ounces with all the base metals credits. That makes all the sense in the world, and is a sign of good management team executing a solid strategy.

          While many Silver producers are depleting their mines at $16-$17 Silver, Americas Silver is making great margins on their Lead and Zinc, and saving their Silver for when it is actually profitable to produce it in mass. Brilliant.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 3:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Silvercorp & First Majestic & Excellon & Hochschild are also increasing their Zinc & Lead production and it is having a positive effect on their economics as well.

            There is no point in hording the Lead or Zinc for another time, as both have higher prices than they’ve had in years, and now is the time to get the base metals produced before Glencore kicks up more mines, and some of the other development stage Zinc companies come online over the next 2-3 years.

            Most companies would be wise to save much of their Silver reserves for when the prices are a few bucks higher, and that will do wonders for revenues, free cash flow, and the longer term game.

  17. On June 17, 2018 at 11:36 am,
    Matthew says:

    IPT is up significantly versus the sector and most of its peers since bottoming last year.
    Priced in AXR, it has broken out of a big bull flag and looks ready to get through Fibonacci fan resistance that has capped it since March:

    • On June 17, 2018 at 4:08 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      That makes sense as IPT is one of the most highly torqued Silver producers and Alexco is a development stage company doing the boring stage of permitting, sinking of shafts, and optimizing its already built mine, before it announces it’s production decision in Q4 of this year. Once it gets a bit closer to that point, and providing the Silver prices move up a bit to the $18-$20 range, then Alexco will start gaining more traction again in the marketplace during its “Golden Runway” stage.

      I’m continuing to add to AXU on weak periods, because I have more confidence it it getting into production than any other Jr Silver Developer out there. Later this year Alexco will put on its dancing shoes….

      • On June 17, 2018 at 4:10 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Building out a World Class $Silver Asset – Alexco Resources $AXU $AXR

        Cambridge House International – May 22, 2018 #CorporatePresentation #VIDEO #Yukon


        • On June 17, 2018 at 4:11 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Invest #Yukon panel discussion at CMS 2018
          #TheNorthernMiner – May 25, 2018 #VIDEO

          > Panelists: Stephen Mills, Deputy Minister Energy Mines and Resources, Government of Yukon;

          Graham Downs, President/CEO , $ATC ATAC Resources Ltd;

          **Clynton Nauman, President/CEO , $AXU $AXR Alexco Resource Corp.


      • On June 17, 2018 at 4:29 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I’d say Alexco just has to digest all the “traction” that it has enjoyed (and deserved). It is fully valued for now so I haven’t owned it for quite awhile — but probably will again when the time is right.

        • On June 17, 2018 at 4:35 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          That “traction” was more due to their stellar drill hits at Bermingham and Flame & Moth, and the excitement from them renegotiating their stream with Wheaton Precious Metals. Once things get closer to Q4 and their production decision, the real re-rating will begin, as they’ll be the next Silver producer, with great economics, very high grades, and will get a premium as a producer because they are in mining friendly Yukon in Canada.

          They’ll rise much higher when that gets a bit closer, and they get past the boring development “orphan” phase that they are finishing up.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 4:37 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            However, they are just about to start drilling again for the 2018 Exploration program, and if they hit a few nice holes (like they did the last 2 years) in Q3 then that may move it higher before the Q4 production decision.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 4:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I am also pretty excited to see how Alexco’s neighbors – Metallic Minerals (MMG) does this season, as they had some good hits last year, and they’ve got a solid drill program lined up for 2018.

            The MMG strategy is to either feed their ore to Alexco’s mill at Keno Hill, or look at partnering with a major to develop their own stand alone mill and processing center if they can prove up enough reserves. This will be a very exciting year in the Keno Hill Silver District for both companies.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 4:44 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Yup, I did say that the traction was deserved.

    • On June 17, 2018 at 4:25 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Here is a chart with a half dozen Jr Silver Producers over the last year:

      Impact, Hunt Mining, Maya Gold & Silver, Excellon, Bayhorse Silver, and Avino Silver & Gold:


      • On June 17, 2018 at 4:26 pm,
        Excelsior says:
        • On June 17, 2018 at 4:29 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          This is a similar chart but is a 6 month chart on the same 6 Jr Silver Producers, but is interesting because it goes back to the mid-December bottom:

          Hunt and Maya & and Impact have all done the best, but Hunt takes the cake:


          • On June 17, 2018 at 4:32 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I should say that Hunt takes the cake over the last 6 months, but clearly over the last year, Maya Gold & Silver blew away all the Jr Silver producers. I was involved with it for some of that time, but elected to sell earlier on because I had ethics issues with how they dealt with the Mercury and Arsenic in their their tailings and old stockpiles and didn’t like the potential environmental risk, so it stings to see just how well it has performed. Still, I said when I sold it I expected it to do well, but I didn’t want to be associated with it for personal reasons (no matter how well it may do).

          • On June 17, 2018 at 4:35 pm,
            Matthew says:

            It looks to me like only 3 companies should be on that graph.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 4:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Those 6 are all Jr Silver producers.

            I guess I could have also added Great Panther but they are almost a mid-tier now.

            Golden Arrow is JV’d with a major on their production, so it didn’t seem like a fair comparison.

            GoGold is producing, but from tailings only, so I didn’t include them.

            There are no more Jr Silver producers that I’m aware of, as the rest like Excellon, Fortuna, Sierra Metals, Hochschild, Americas Silver, and Silvercorp are really Mid-Tiers as this point, and the rest are Majors.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 4:47 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Looking at the weekly charts of those three, IPT is the easy choice for new buying right now while MYA rates a “no thanks.”

          • On June 17, 2018 at 4:49 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I was talking performance, Ex. The last three performed roughly in line with the sector.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 5:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeah, I agree with that, and included them as a frame of reference against other Jr Silver producer, as Excellon, Bayhorse, and Avino absolutely trended sideways to down with most of the Silver miners and ETFs.

            Only Impact, Hunt, and Maya bucked the trend.

            First Majestic has done well since the 2017 Dec bottom on the FOMC rate hike, especially for a much larger company.


  18. On June 17, 2018 at 11:42 am,
    Matthew says:

    For the week that just ended, IPT gained 15%+ versus SILJ:


    • On June 17, 2018 at 11:51 am,
      Matthew says:

      Whether we use IPT or ISVLF, Impact Silver is also on monthly buy signals versus SILJ (and Alexco).


  19. On June 17, 2018 at 12:09 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Whether we’re talking silver or gold, the junior miners are where it’s at. That was true in 2016 and will be just as true in the next move. GOEX beat GDX and GDXJ in 2016 while SILJ even smoked GOEX.

  20. On June 17, 2018 at 2:52 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I’ve never owned it but SVB has done very well since last summer:


  21. On June 17, 2018 at 3:12 pm,
    Charles says:

    Me neither. Missed opportunity. Any stock that outperforms the sector during a down period seems destined to fly when the sector gets going. I am already in 5 or 6 junior silver miners and feel like that is enough for now. What do you think of Kooteney Silver. I am in at a pretty good loss and wondering if I should change out or continue to hod until closer to tax loss selling season. It just seems to keep sliding just when I think it’s going to stabilize.

    • On June 17, 2018 at 3:40 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I don’t own it but would keep it for now if I were you. It looks like it will be going up soon.

    • On June 17, 2018 at 3:54 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Charles – just my 2 cents on Kootenay. The share-price has slid in value down to near silly levels now, and this is the same for Abraplata. Both have solid development stage companies, with good economics, but the Developers are too boring for investors that are mostly chasing Exploration stocks, or Producers with good metrics.

      When the tide turns back on the next leg higher in the PM bull market, many of the developers like Kooteny, Abraplata, Bear Creek, Silver Bear, Alexco, etc.. will really start to rocket much higher. There are few analysts or institutional funds even following development stories in the Silver sector at this point, but that will change once the outperformance in the Silver stocks starts playing out on the next major upturn (which I’m anticipating starting by Aug/Sept and running well into 2019).

      Kootenay is very well run, did some nice resource expansion this year, have great JV partners and will eventually be bought out by one of those majors. Selling at this point would be the epitome of “selling low”. I’m actually considering adding to many of my developers as some of the Jr and Mid-tier producers have already starting to run.


  22. On June 17, 2018 at 3:49 pm,
    Charles says:

    Thanks. I hope you are right.

  23. On June 17, 2018 at 4:42 pm,
    Charles says:

    Thanks for your insights Ex. I’ve been watching the positive drill reaults, but the stock keeps getting slammed. I picked up some shares recently to average my cost downbut it dropped again. I guess I was early. I will continue to watch. I own Alexco too and that one seems to be holding up better by comparison.

    • On June 17, 2018 at 4:53 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Charles – Yes, agreed. Kootenay has been doing solid work, hitting milestones, proving their thesis, and improving their economics as they expanded their resources, but the stock price for most of the Silver developers has been in the gutter.

      Like I mentioned above look at Abraplata, or Bear Creek or Silver Bear….. they are all down…

      Yes, Alexco has fared better, but it makes sense as they are the only Developer on the list with assets in Canada, and they had such stellar drill results from their Flame & Moth and Bermingham deposits that this kept the stock buoyed.

      In addition the market has finally realized that now with these 2 very high-grade deposits to compliment the prior Lucky Queen and Bellekeno deposits, and with the negotiation of a much better streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals, the Alexco economics are light-years better than where they were when they were last in production in 2013.


      • On June 17, 2018 at 4:58 pm,
        Charles says:

        Thanks Ex. Sounds like if I Add Alexco is the one to add to.

        • On June 17, 2018 at 5:10 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Well, I actually think there could be larger percentage gains in the more unloved developers like Abraplata or Silver Bear or Bear Creek or even Kootenay once there is a larger market and more analysts following the Silver sector again, but Alexco is the best and safest bet on leverage to Silver/Zinc/Lead prices and the most likely to go into production next (and their mill is fully built and already produced a few years ago), and their declines are mostly sunk now and will be finished off along with definition drilling in Q3 and Q4.

          We mentioned a few times on here that Alexco’s newsflow is all back-dated to the 2nd half of the year, and all of them should be big deals (development completed, big exploration program, and finally a production decision).

          Also, Alexco has a very profitable subsidiary in their Environmental Mitigation company that brings in side revenues to help fuel the mining efforts. That’s a nice kicker to have, and the only other company I know of like that is Denison Mining in the Uranium sector.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 5:12 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Of the Advanced Explorers in the Silver space, that will be moving into Development next…… I really like Dolly Varden, Silvercrest, Defiance, and Klondike Silver.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 5:41 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            For the Silver Explorers with a bit more to prove, I like Metallic Minerals, Orex Minerals, Brixton, Bitteroot, Southern Silver, New Pacific, Bunker Hill, Bitterroot, Silver Bull, Golden Goliath, and Santana Minerals.

    • On June 17, 2018 at 5:09 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Kootenay’s share structure is not confidence inspiring and that January financing is probably still taking its toll (those shares became “free trading” a month ago).
      By the time silver is really ready to move, you’ll probably be very pleasantly surprised by how well the stock moves, too.
      I’d own it before Alexco, at the moment.

  24. On June 17, 2018 at 4:49 pm,
    Charles says:

    Either of you two guys have any opinions on Columbus Gold?

    • On June 17, 2018 at 4:58 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I used to think it was one of the most likely takeover candidates but for the last year or two there have been power struggles from within, almost hostile investor actions, and there is strong opposition from the locals. The share price has plummeted to ridiculous levels, but this fickel market runs for the exit doors at the first sign of uncertainty, and punishes any missteps without mercy.

      I’ve actually considered Columbus Gold as a potential turn-around story, but have about 6-8 turnaround stories in my portfolio right now, and don’t want to bring on any more risk into my portfolio until a few of them prove the thesis and get rerated.

      Are there any other Development stage Gold companies or very Advanced Explorers you are liking these days?

      • On June 17, 2018 at 5:08 pm,
        Charles says:

        Novo of course. I’m hoping it gets down to $3 per sh US and I wii buy some more. My average cost is about 50cents but I hav not bought or sold since the run up last year. I am also in Auryn. Most of my other names are producers.

        • On June 17, 2018 at 5:17 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Nice. Yes I follow both stories closely, but don’t own either. I did previously own Novo prior to all the Pilbara gold rush fever, but sold it a little after the metal detector videos and gold nugget discussions got going. Honestly I was shocked by how high that story ran, and it is a clearly the most fascinating exploration story in the entire Gold sector at this time.

          There are people lining up on the bullish/bearish debate on Novo in droves, and of course all the other Pilbara Sisters that rose/fell in unison like Artemis, De Grey, Kairos, Impact Minerals, Pioneer, Pacton, etc…..

          A fascinating story that is unfolding, no matter what happens!

          I’m actually rooting for Quentin and the Novo team, as this sector really needs a big discovery to get investors excited about something, and get enough buzz going to draw over speculative money that all ran into Cryptos, Pot stocks, Biotech, or is shelved on the sidelines at present.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 5:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Garibaldi is doing that same thing in the Nickel space, and the SolGold / Cornerstone Capital resources story is doing that in the Copper space, and Fireweed Zinc has done that in the Zinc space.

            The question remains, which company will really get investors excited about the Silver sector again?

            Honestly I like many of the Silver stocks best and is why I own so many of them, because they allow investors leverage to Gold & Gold miners, and they still participate in the Zinc/Lead/Copper/Gold sectors depending the polymetallic makeup from company to company.

            The Silver miners are unloved overall, but this too shall pass….. they day is coming.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 5:22 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            They = Their 🙂

          • On June 17, 2018 at 5:28 pm,
            Charles says:

            Yes I am rooting for Quinton too. I think it is going to work out long term, but there will be many ups and downs. I took some off the table early in the rally so I am pretty much playing with house money currently. I got in to Auryn a bit late and so I’m negative right now, but I like the management team and their portfolio of exploration properties. Have Goldcorp involved is a nice plus too.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 5:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, always wise to trim some of the winnings. Admittedly I trimmed too much on the double & 250% gain on Novo and underestimated just how high that one would run and expected the buzz to die down quicker than it did. Also, over time the shear size of that conglomerate package in the Pilbara being basin-wide has really tickled the imaginations of PM investors, so it makes sense in retrospect.

            Yes, Auryn has a very capable team and one of the biggest Majors in the gold sector, so longer term, they’ll do very well.

            Good luck to you in your investments!

          • On June 17, 2018 at 6:57 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Last month I got back into Novo for a brief swing-trade, and it felt good to be back in, but then then I sold again, not knowing if there was more to the correction post bulk sample news digestion. I’m considering staking out a small position in it again if it pulls back a bit more. I hold a small position in Kairos Minerals for a speculative punt as well.

  25. On June 17, 2018 at 5:20 pm,
    Charles says:

    I forgot I also own a decent position in Dolly Varden. Why is you favorite Uranium play? I own UUUU and previously owned Dennison and URG and would like to add one or two on the near term.

    • On June 17, 2018 at 5:24 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes – I’m very excited as the drills are starting to turn for Dolly Varden and over the next few months I’m very excited to see what the DV team with Gary Cope & Ben Whiting team come up with. I’m also invested with their team over at Orex Minerals (REX). The Belcara Group is top notch leadership.

    • On June 17, 2018 at 5:30 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      As for Uranium companies I own:

      Energy Fuels (UUUU)
      Ur-Energy (URG)
      Uranium Energy Corp (UEC)
      Denison Mines (DNN)
      Nexgen (NXE)
      Anfield Energy (AEC).

      I also owned Berkeley, Bannerman, UEX, ALX, Lightbridge, and Centrus in 2017, and it has been on my mind to get back into them, once I lighten the load in the PMs a bit on a healthy leg higher.

      I also really am impressed with Skyharbour, Peninsula Energy, Azaraga, and Western Uranium, but there are only so many Uranium stocks one can own.

      Still, I’d recommend building ones’ own ETF or basket over investing in the new allocation in the monstrosity that is the URA….. They really have screwed that ETF up bad with Gold, Lithium, manufacturing, and tech companies. Better to be a stock picker on one’s own in the Uranium space and have a few producers, developers, and explorers.

      • On June 17, 2018 at 5:36 pm,
        Charles says:

        I was thinking of either Nexgen or UEC or maybe both. How would you compare the two?

        • On June 17, 2018 at 5:49 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Nexgen is the darling of the Uranium space with a cult-like following, and rightly so… It is a world class Tier 1 discovery, and has some of the most well-endowed ore since Cameco’s big discoveries. The other great thing about Nexgen is that unlike most of the Athabasca Basin, they have much less water issues to deal with. The downside with Nexgen is how much it has already risen in valuation, the amount of money needed to buy it out by a Major, and the reality that is likely 3-5 years from production. I own it for the takeover aspect, and think it could still rise 2-3 times from here, but is one of the safer ways to play the Uranium sector.

          UEC Uranium Energy Corp is one of the highest volume Uranium stocks, with a good promoter/marketing CEO’s Amir Adnani, and the usual suspects for mouthpieces and shareholders (Rick Rule, Doug Casey, Marin Katusa, etc…).

          UEC is a development stage insitu producer that will have lower costs than most, and being in Texas is more solid jurisdiction than many of the African, European, or even Australian Uranium miners that face more opposition. UEC is much closer to production than Nexgen, and may catch more upside (easy 3-5 bagger) if the worm turns in Uranium pricing and they can capitalize on the rising economics due to an upturn in spot and contract pricing.

          I like to trade both NXE and UEC because of their liquidity and popularity. Other Uranium stocks are more thinly traded and better for accumulating on dips.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 5:57 pm,
            Charles says:

            Thanks for the great comparison. It sounds like UEC might fit my style better. The raise both sound like good choices subject to valuation and technical analysis.

          • On June 17, 2018 at 6:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, both are great picks in the Uranium sector, have enough volume and liquidity for the charts and trading, and both will win big when the Uranium rebounds.

            The bottom was the double bottom in Uranium spot at $17-$18 in late 2016 and fall of 2017, and while there have been a few fits and starts rallies since then, most of the gains were given up just as fast, so the sector is still trying to get some legs to run on.

            Ever Upward!

  26. On June 17, 2018 at 5:33 pm,
    Charles says:

    Great. Good people is my number one priority.

    • On June 17, 2018 at 5:34 pm,
      Excelsior says:


  27. On June 17, 2018 at 7:23 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Big news in the Zinc space. Hat tip to Dan, calgary that first tipped us off to Arizona Silver when they were Wildcat Silver. What a joruney this stock went on !!


    South32 to Acquire Arizona Mining in Agreed All Cash Offer

    @nasdaq on June 17, 2018


  28. On June 18, 2018 at 7:16 am,
    charles says:

    Looks like last Thursday’s move in IPT was nothing more than a head fake. Looks like more consolidation is needed.

    • On June 18, 2018 at 8:42 am,
      Matthew says:

      Not sure I’d call it a head fake just yet. SLV is down 3.5% since Wednesday’s close and IPT is currently up 7.5% since Wednesday’s close.
      Buyers have stepped in on today’s gap filling dip which is consistent with Friday’s strength.
      The short term picture still looks fine. I’ll go with the head fake diagnosis if that changes.

      • On June 18, 2018 at 8:49 am,
        Matthew says:

        I don’t want to see the 200 day MA give way:

    • On June 18, 2018 at 8:45 am,
      Matthew says:

      Speaking of gaps, SLV’s plunge filled a big one and did so on the kind of volume that tends to appear near a turn.

  29. On June 18, 2018 at 7:28 am,
    Charles says:

    The Andrews Pitchfork from the December low on ISVLF seems to fit much better now which is promising.

  30. On June 18, 2018 at 10:56 am,
    Charles says:

    Nice chart Matthew. Thanks.