David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Wed 20 Jun, 2018

Reviewing The Short Term Charts For PMs and A Recent M&A

David Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junkie joins me to share his thoughts on the short term gold and silver charts. One is in oversold position but the other could still have some room to pullback. We also review the recent news in the sector including the Arizona Mining takeover, Falco silver stream agreement, and ATAC resource.

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Dave ErfleCory Fleck

  1. On June 20, 2018 at 8:23 am,
    spanky says:

    The Ichimoku cloud on the weekly GDX chart is not very auspicious for the rest of this year IMO. There is an extremely narrow window–the week of August 6 to be exact–where price might be able to break above the $23 level for good. Otherwise, you have a flat topped red cloud out until the end of the year. Which means the bias will be flat to down through the rest of this year.

    The only other possibility in my eyes would be to see a massive reversal *this week* up through the $23 level–ain’t gonna happen though.

    hoping against hope….

  2. On June 20, 2018 at 10:20 am,
    spanky says:

    New ATH in AMZN today.

  3. On June 20, 2018 at 10:33 am,
    spanky says:

    SIL ugly black reversal candle today. I would rather see red than this ugly “strength,” which does nothing but suggest much lower prices in time.

    • On June 20, 2018 at 11:13 am,
      Cory댊 says:

      I will be posting an interview with Jordan Roy-Byrne shortly where we address the SIL chart. It’s not looking pretty right now.

  4. On June 20, 2018 at 10:49 am,
    Matthew says:

    SLV at important support:


    • On June 20, 2018 at 12:04 pm,
      spanky says:

      Looks like your magic 1265 number for gold is about to go down in flames.

      GDX won’t be going above $23 this year.

      • On June 20, 2018 at 12:13 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Magic? What a drama queen. 🙂

        $4 bucks away isn’t exactly “about to” in my book.

        • On June 20, 2018 at 12:15 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Ok, 3 bucks. All the same.

    • On June 20, 2018 at 12:15 pm,
      spanky says:

      Even if a low is near, do you really expect that lower trendline to not be broken?

      Too tempting for the banksters.

      • On June 20, 2018 at 12:27 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Yes, if you’re talking about my SLV chart above, it does seem very likely that the big boys would smash the two year uptrend to get rid of the clueless who happen to be long. I’m rooting for them and you should be too.

        • On June 20, 2018 at 12:30 pm,
          Matthew says:

          To be clear, I’d like the smash to be quick and not very deep.

        • On June 20, 2018 at 12:43 pm,
          spanky says:

          Yes, I always hope for lower prices when I have full positions. Screw higher highs and higher lows!

          • On June 20, 2018 at 12:47 pm,
            Matthew says:

            As a bull, you should want the most possible upside. Therefore, ridding the market of weak hands is a good thing.

          • On June 20, 2018 at 12:53 pm,
            spanky says:

            Sure, in the context of higher highs and higher lows (you know, a “bull” market), you buy the dip.

            But in the context of lower highs and higher lows (miners and silver currently), or even worse, lower highs and lower lows, buying the dips is just dumb even if you do manage to get some paper gains off of a low.

          • On June 20, 2018 at 1:03 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Spanky, I’m not talking about buying the dip this time. An orchestrated break of the 2+ year uptrend by the big money in order to shake the dumb money out would simply improve the structure of the market — probably a lot.

          • On June 20, 2018 at 2:37 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On June 20, 2018 at 2:48 pm,
            spanky says:

            We’ll probably get a smash much lower in the premarket this week.

            Obviously gold and silver will bounce at some point, but just like the miners they will now be shorted mercilessly on tags of the 100WMA.

          • On June 20, 2018 at 3:21 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Short interest is always highest at a major low. So be merciless! 😉

          • On June 20, 2018 at 4:05 pm,
            spanky says:

            Just watch the silver CoTs. Last week looked horrid. I’ll bet there isn’t much improvement this week despite the 60 cent drop.

            Once Silver breaks down, and the CoTs finally ease up, I’ll bet the commercials build back their short positions extremely quickly as silver enters a cyclical bear.

  5. On June 20, 2018 at 12:19 pm,
    spanky says:

    SIL’s H&S projects to $28. Expect at least a sideways condolidation/deadcat bounce there.

  6. On June 20, 2018 at 12:32 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (ASM) Avino Announces Exploration Update on Bralorne

    “Over the last four years the Company has made considerable progress, and has achieved many important milestones towards advancing its Bralorne Gold Mine; including receiving an approved Permit Amendment to the Mines Act Permit M207, and an updated mineral resource estimate, construction of a buttress for the Tailings Storage Facility, the construction of a new Water Treatment Plant; as well as developing trusting and mutually beneficial working relationships with local communities including members of St’at’imc First Nation, said David Wolfin, President and CEO. “I am delighted that these flow-through funds will allow Avino to build a detailed geological understanding of the Bralorne deposit and explore for potential new targets.”

    The exploration strategy includes the following steps:

    – Comprehensive Structural Modelling and Geological Mapping
    – Extensive Airborne and Ground Geophysics Surveys
    – Focused Geochemical Sampling; and
    – Significant Drilling Campaign


    • On June 20, 2018 at 12:37 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (ASM) Avino Commissions Mill Circuit 4

      @newswire on June 7, 2018

      “With our current expansion nearly complete at the Avino property, we are very excited to add Mill Circuit 4 to our production profile. The new state of the art circuit effectively increases our throughput capacity by 70%, and we expect it to be online full time in early January 2019” said David Wolfin, President and CEO. “I would like to thank our team in Mexico for their hard work, dedication and resourcefulness to get this major project completed.”


    • On June 20, 2018 at 2:35 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It probably does not have much further to fall…


      • On June 20, 2018 at 3:03 pm,
        spanky says:

        You forgot to add “give or take 25 cents”.

        Look to short it on any rally back to the 100 WMA.

        • On June 20, 2018 at 3:19 pm,
          Matthew says:

          No, I didn’t forget anything.

  7. On June 20, 2018 at 2:07 pm,
    Charles says:

    Good stuff Ex. Thanks for sharing.

    • On June 21, 2018 at 5:22 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Cheers! Avino is a well run Silver/Gold company and with that Mil Circuit 4 underway they are about to up their production numbers in a big way.

      Also I’ve been very interested to see the exploration up on their Bralorne property get taken to the next level. There are still many companies doing good work despite the doldrums in the PM markets.

  8. On June 20, 2018 at 4:17 pm,
    spanky says:

    I highly doubt GCC gets a golden cross on the weekly chart any time soon. I think it highly possible that commodities break down hard and head below the 2016 low at some point. Maybe, at some point in the next 18 months, GCC might make a major low.

    It’s highly likely that 2016 to date has been nothing more than a consolidation before a continuation downward (we were ridiculously stretched below the 200 WMA afterall in January 2016– as I said, we haven’t ever seen anything like 2014-2016 in the history of the CRB as far as I can tell). The historically oversold condition has been alleviated now, and its free to continue lower.

    The fall in commodities is fueling stock prices higher post QE. Input costs are going to be dropping to 50+ year lows soon.