Chris Temple from The National Investor – Mon 25 Jun, 2018

Market Correction – Is It Trade Fears or A Natural Correction?

With markets selling off to start the week I ask Chris to weigh in on the what is causing the drop. Is it escalating trade fears or nothing more than a natural correction? Considering we are seeing tech getting hit the hardest there is an argument for both. We also talk about the back and forth treasury market were even on a day like today we are not seeing the safe haven move into treasuries.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more market and stock commentary.


Featuring:
Chris TempleCory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On June 25, 2018 at 9:33 am,
    spanky says:

    If the Dow is rolling over here, GDX is going down with it.

    the Dow should find support at its 50 WMA. Would expect the weekly RSI to hit neutral before it bottoms as well.

    • On June 25, 2018 at 10:45 am,
      Matthew says:

      Unless stocks crash, that’s not at something you should assume. I’ve addressed that claim countless tines here but myths die hard.

      http://schrts.co/LdAFGV

      • On June 26, 2018 at 7:54 am,
        Charles says:

        Hi Matthew –

        Looks like ISVLF is getting close to the 200-day SMA that you were hoping would hold. It seems like it could go down and at least tag it today or tomorrow.

  2. On June 25, 2018 at 10:35 am,
    irishtony says:

    OFF TOPIC
    Can somebody please explain to me why this horrible “THING” was not arrested on the spot for saying, what she did,if you or i said it in public we would have been marched away in handcuffs…..Waters, you are evil.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-24/maxine-waters-orders-if-you-see-anybody-trump-cabinet-create-crowd-and-push-back

    • On June 25, 2018 at 10:55 am,
      Snowy says:

      Did she do anything illegal? I don’t think she can be arrested.

  3. On June 25, 2018 at 12:23 pm,
    CFS says:

    Maxine waters, as a member of Congress enjoys certain privileges an ordinary citizen does not enjoy.

    I know it was only a sound bite, but she was very careful in choosing her words.
    She did not “incite to violence”, which, had she been less careful, would have been a possible charge.

  4. On June 25, 2018 at 12:34 pm,
    CFS says:

    Auryn Acquires Good Lucky Prospect and Discovers New Prospects at Sombrero

    2018-06-25 08:00 ET – News Release

    VANCOUVER, British Columbia, June 25, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Auryn Resources Inc. (TSX:AUG) (NYSE American:AUG) (“Auryn” or the “Company) is pleased to announce the acquisition of rights to the Mollecruz concessions, which are key claims in the northern area of the Sombrero Project, located in southern Peru. The Mollecruz concessions include the Good Lucky prospect, which is located five kilometers from the Sombrero project, where Auryn recently trenched 99 meters of 0.46% copper equivalent. Samples taken within the Mollecruz concessions yielded results up to 5.12 g/t gold and 4.29% copper.

  5. On June 25, 2018 at 1:24 pm,
    Silverdolloar says:

    Doesn’t the fact that we supply the world’s reserve currency almost dictate that we will run a huge deficit since everybody else wants to sell us their ‘stuff’ for our dollars?

  6. On June 25, 2018 at 1:29 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Could Chris address the fact that we’ll never have a level trade balance since we are the supplier of reserve currency to the world? Kissinger’s deal with the Saudis to accept only dollars for their oil keeps the demand for $$ high and many have no way of acquiring any except to undersell us.

    • On June 25, 2018 at 3:26 pm,
      Nigel says:

      Craig Hemke on Greg’s site gave a simple explanation of why trade tariffs/trade balance is a major problem for a reserve currency – I agree with Silverdollar any more insight on this issue would be great, I still don’t totally understand it.
      start at 9.45 https://usawatchdog.com/global-debt-a-parabolic-ponzi-scheme-craig-hemke/

    • On June 25, 2018 at 3:27 pm,
      Temple says:

      I made exactly this point -and others – on the weekend show just past.

      • On June 25, 2018 at 3:57 pm,
        Nigel says:

        Hi Chris, I know you made a very similar point on the weekend show and some very good additional points – what I was getting at is , for example, what do you think would happen if the US, Europe, Mexico, Canada etc. went to zero tariffs. How would that work? Would it be a good idea? What would a world without a reserve currency look like? I know it’s all theoretical but Trump seems to want to shake things up, I just dont know how the dominoes would fall in such scenarios.

        • On June 26, 2018 at 6:20 am,
          Temple says:

          I’ll definitely be pursuing this line of thought in the coming days. . .

    • On June 25, 2018 at 10:29 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The Trade War Has Sent the Yield Curve to Its Flattest Since 2007

      By Liz McCormick – June 25, 2018

      “The Treasury curve just keeps getting flatter.

      The gap between 2- and 10-year yields reached a fresh year-to-date low Monday, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s dilemma over what Chairman Jerome Powell has called the real perplexing question in the collapsing curve: how low long-term yields are. This reality is prompting several Wall Street firms to cut or question their year-end forecasts. Morgan Stanley’s rates team said Friday that the 2018 peak for 10-year Treasury yields is in the rear-view mirror.

      Fresh signs that Washington appears set to step up its trade war with China sent investors out of riskier assets and into the safety of U.S. government debt, pushing the 10-year yield below 2.88 percent Monday and the 2- to 10-year yield spread to its narrowest since August 2007. The gaps between 5- and 30-years and between 7- and 10-year yields are still near multi-year lows.”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/curve-flattens-anew-as-powell-s-long-end-harder-question-holds

      • On June 25, 2018 at 11:14 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        What’s the Yield Curve? ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

        By Matt Phillips – June 25, 2018

        “The so-called yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done before with surprising accuracy — and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street.”

        “Terms like “yield curve” can be mind-numbing if you’re not a bond trader, but the mechanics, practical impact and psychology of it are fairly straightforward. Here’s what the fuss is all about….”

        “The yield curve is basically the difference between interest rates on short-term United States government bonds, say, two-year Treasury notes, and long-term government bonds, like 10-year Treasury notes.”

        “Typically, when an economy seems in good health, the rate on the longer-term bonds will be higher than short-term ones. The extra interest is to compensate, in part, for the risk that strong economic growth could set off a broad rise in prices, known as inflation. Lately, though, long-term bond yields have been stubbornly slow to rise — which suggests traders are concerned about long-term growth — even as the economy shows plenty of vitality.”

        “At the same time, the Federal Reserve has been raising short-term rates, so the yield curve has been “flattening.” In other words, the gap between short-term interest rates and long-term rates is shrinking…”

        https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html

  7. On June 25, 2018 at 1:36 pm,
    BobUK says:

    Keep an eye on Italy – it is not submitting to Germany… I mean the EU.

    It would not surprise me fhat Germany tries to orchestrate some kind of Italian financial crisis – banks or bonds or both – in the coming weeks just as they did with Greece to force the Italians back into line.

  8. On June 25, 2018 at 8:56 pm,
    CFS says:

    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A U.S. judge who held a hearing about climate change that received widespread attention ruled Monday that Congress and the president were best suited to address the contribution of fossil fuels to global warming, throwing out lawsuits that sought to hold big oil companies liable for the Earth’s changing environment.

    Noting that the world has also benefited significantly from oil and other fossil fuel, Judge William Alsup said questions about how to balance the “worldwide positives of the energy” against its role in global warming “demand the expertise of our environmental agencies, our diplomats, our Executive, and at least the Senate.”

    “The problem deserves a solution on a more vast scale than can be supplied by a district judge or jury in a public nuisance case,” he said.

    Alsup’s ruling came in lawsuits brought by San Francisco and neighboring Oakland that accused Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, BP and Royal Dutch Shell of long knowing that fossil fuels posed serious risks to the environment, but still promoting them as environmentally responsible.

    The lawsuits said the companies created a public nuisance and should pay for sea walls and other infrastructure to protect against the effects of climate change — construction that could cost billions of dollars.

    The Oakland city attorney’s offices did not immediately have comment. John Cote, a spokesman for the San Francisco city attorney’s office, said the office was reviewing the ruling and would decide its next steps “shortly,” but the lawsuit had “forced a public court proceeding on climate science.”

    “We’re pleased that the court recognized that the science of global warming is no longer in dispute,” he said.

    New York City, several California counties and at least one other California city filed similar suits.

    The companies said federal law controlled fossil fuel production, and Congress encouraged oil and gas development. The harm the cities claimed was “speculative” and part of a complex chain of events that included billions of oil and gas users and “environmental phenomena occurring worldwide over many decades,” they said in court documents.

    National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons applauded the ruling in a statement. “From the moment these baseless lawsuits were filed, we have argued that the courtroom was not the proper venue to address this global challenge,” said Timmons.

  9. On June 25, 2018 at 10:14 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    David Erfle’s Top Mining Picks

    Jun 25, 2018 #Video

    David Erfle, founder of http://www.juniorminerjunky.com, likes Klondike Gold (CVE: KG), ATAC Resources (CVE: ATC), and Alexco Resources (NYSE: AXU).

    Speaking from the Yukon Mining Investment Conference in Dawson City, Erfle tells Kitco News that companies operating in Yukon are “ready, willing, and able” to continue growing.

    http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Yukon-Mining-Conference/2002/2018-06-25/David-Erfles-Top-Mining-Picks#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DYukon-Mining-Conference

  10. On June 25, 2018 at 10:16 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    David Erfle’s Top Mining Picks
    Jun 25, 2018 #VIDEO

    David Erfle, likes Klondike Gold (CVE: KG), ATAC Resources (CVE: ATC), and Alexco Resources (NYSE: AXU).

    Speaking from the Yukon Mining Investment Conference in Dawson City, Erfle tells Kitco News that companies operating in Yukon are “ready, willing, and able” to continue growing.

    http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Yukon-Mining-Conference/2002/2018-06-25/David-Erfles-Top-Mining-Picks#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DYukon-Mining-Conference

  11. On June 25, 2018 at 10:57 pm,
    Excelsior says:
  12. On June 25, 2018 at 11:09 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Lithium and cobalt: A tale of two commodities

    By Marcelo Azevedo, Nicolò Campagnol, Toralf Hagenbruch, Ken Hoffman, Ajay Lala, and Oliver Ramsbottom – Report June 2018

    https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/lithium-and-cobalt-a-tale-of-two-commodities?

    • On June 26, 2018 at 5:39 am,
      Charles says:

      Thanks for posting Ex. Good projection of where demand will go in the coming years for these two commodities. I don’t have any Lithium or Cobalt exposure so I’d like to pick up a few minors in this space.

      • On June 26, 2018 at 6:37 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I have a few Lithium and a few Cobalt miners, but not a large allocation at this point. Personally I was banging on the drum for Lithium back in 2015 & 2016 and had more of an allocation back then and going into 2017.

        Just like in any resource sector be it Gold, Oil, Copper, whatever…. most of the companies will not have economic deposits, and with Lithium most don’t have the experience with the advanced chemistry needed to extract the battery grade Li. I chose to go with more advanced deposits that could make it to production and some have like Orocobre, Galaxy Resources, and Neometals, and the rest are advanced developers like Pilbara Minerals, Nemaska Lithium, and Lithium Americas.

        For Cobalt, I’m just not that interested in being part of the cesspool that is the Congo, so I opted for Canadian & Australian Silver/Copper/Nickel companies that had some exposure to Cobalt but have rotated out of most of them at present. I just had a spinout from the Gold company Orefinders into Powerore Inc, Brixton Metals is spinning out a Cobalt/Silver company from their asset base, Polymet has some exposure to Cobalt in it’s polymetallic asset, Leading Edge Materials has Graphite/Lithium/Cobalt/Rare Earths, and I’ve owed First Cobalt and Artemis in the past. I never had eCobalt solutions, but it is getting so beat down it looks interesting again, and some still like Clean Teq.

        There are other Copper & Nickel companies looking interesting for cobalt as well as a byproduct. herritt Int’l is s Nickel producer with a nice Cobalt credit and is one of the few ways to play a producer, but they’re in Cuba & Madagascar.
        I own some Group Ten Metals which is neighbors with Nickel Creek and their polymetallic deposits have exposure to Cobalt as well.

  13. On June 26, 2018 at 7:07 am,
    Charles says:

    I like eCobalt solutions and almost took a position a while back, but thought I was late to the party so stayed out. I will have to take another look at that one. I was also thinking about Cobalt 27 which is a royalty play, but I have not looked at in a while. I hope to pick up some Brixton this week. I too am wary of the bongo Congo. I have looked at Lithium Americas and I have heard good things about Orocobre. It is on a list of mine somewhere. Thanks for your thoughts. So many companies, so little time……..

    • On June 26, 2018 at 7:45 am,
      Excelsior says:

      “so many companies, so little time….” – Agreed!

      Yes, Cobalt 27 is a physical holding company of Cobalt, similar to how Uranium Participation Corp is a physical holding co as well. Cobalt 27 is also going to start doing streaming deals with Cobalt juniors, which adds another angle, but those deposits are still a long way away from being mines, so there will be a wait for that payoff.

      I’m more interested in find a company that get’s bought out by a larger base metals or battery metals company, or some of the companies like First Cobalt or Brixton that have mines & mills onsite that just need refurbishing. Those should be easier to permit and restart.

      There are a few Aussie companies as well with Cobalt, but they don’t get as much visibility as the North American companies.

      Ever upward!

      • On June 26, 2018 at 7:51 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Yes, Lithium Americas has the JV with the huge conglomerate SQM. They’ve already had an epic run, and pulled back with the rest of the Lithium sector, but will likely get bought out.

        My favorite Lithium company for the last few years has been Galaxy Resources as they have hard rock, brine, and clay deposits. They already got their hard rock deposit in production, and have JV partners on the large brine deposit. I actually held them back in 2012/2013 when they built a huge Battery plant and then sold it to Tianqui to process the Talison/Greenbushes deposit from Australia.

        Orocobre was right after Talison (before they were acquired) as a stand-alone Lithium producer, and the brine deposits are more tricky to get into economic production than many realize, so they got off to a bumpy start. They seem to have found their footing now though, and will likely either get acquired or start doing their own acquiring to grow.

        Pilbara and Nemaska are getting much closer to production now, with pilot plants, processing centers, and large capital raises completed. Unlike most of the 100+ Lithium marketing fluff stories, those 2 are actually real companies that will contribute to global Lithium supply.

      • On June 26, 2018 at 7:52 am,
        Charles says:

        Good to know. Thanks!

        • On June 26, 2018 at 8:11 am,
          Excelsior says:

          The Cobalt Boom

          by Claire Felter – June 26, 2018

          “The market for cobalt has exploded in recent years, with demand driven by the surge in production of batteries for electric cars. Its strategic importance will only grow, experts say, as carmakers aggressively scale up production of electric vehicles in the decades ahead.”

          “The boom has focused attention on cobalt’s complex and controversial supply chain. In particular, the dominant roles played by both China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have raised major concerns about ensuring supply of this increasingly valuable commodity.”

          “Most of the world’s cobalt supply comes from the DRC [PDF], part of Central Africa’s copper belt. The southeastern city of Lubumbashi, in Katanga Province, is viewed as the country’s mining capital.”

          “Australia and Cuba have the second- and third-largest cobalt reserves, respectively, followed by the Philippines, Zambia, Canada, and Russia. The United States is far down the list, holding just 23,000 metric tons in reserves.”

          Faced with increased competition and the possibility of a cobalt crunch, car and battery makers such as Panasonic, Samsung, Tesla, and Volkswagen are jockeying to secure a steady supply. Some manufacturers are going directly to the source instead of component suppliers: In 2018, both Apple and Samsung were reportedly in negotiations to buy long-term supplies of the metal directly from miners, a kind of deal that Benchmark’s Rawles says may become more common as the global supply tightens. At the same time, German automaker Volkswagen signed deals with several Asian firms for tens of billions of dollars worth of battery components. Some of the largest battery makers are seeking to avoid the Kinshasa-Beijing supply chain altogether, turning instead to Australia and Canada, countries with more modest cobalt reserves, to diversify their sourcing.

          In the DRC, President Joseph Kabila has sought to take advantage of the cobalt boom: In March 2018, his government increased royalties and taxes on mining firms with the aim of boosting state revenue. However, some analysts, such as researcher Ben Radley, argue that mining companies will likely use controversial accounting practices to avoid the new taxes.

          Meanwhile, China sees electric cars as a strategic industry, and it is pursuing a range of policies intended to put the country in a dominant position, including vehicle subsidies, production quotas, and higher fuel economy standards. It has also made moves to lead oversight of the cobalt supply chain. In 2016, its chamber of commerce for metals established the Responsible Cobalt Initiative, comprising more than two dozen member companies, including Apple, BMW, Dell, Huawei, LG Chem, Samsung, Sony, and Volvo. Other groups are exploring the use of blockchain technology to track the cobalt supply chain.

          President Donald J. Trump has sought to prevent the United States from becoming reliant on foreign mineral resources, including cobalt. In late 2017, he directed federal agencies to identify new sources of “critical minerals” and increase domestic mining and production. Cobalt is also among more than two dozen raw materials [PDF] the European Union has declared “critical,” noting the risk of supply shortage and potential repercussions for the region’s economy.”

          http://www.theassay.com/articles/the-cobalt-boom/

  14. On June 26, 2018 at 8:16 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (TK) Tinka drills 10.4 metres grading 44.0% zinc in new discovery of exceptional zinc grade at Ayawilca

    @newswire on June 26, 2018

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/tinka-drills-104-metres-grading-440-zinc-in-new

  15. On June 26, 2018 at 8:31 am,
    Tom says:

    long TRXC