Hour 1 – Key Considerations For Currencies, Markets and Metals

June 30, 2018

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First off a very happy Canada Day to all our Canadian listeners and an early happy 4th of July to all our US listeners!

This weeks show we get some thoughts on investing in the Yukon, what it will take to get the PMs moving in the upward direction, and some thoughts on how the trade situation is impacting markets globally. Please let me know if there are any Companies or guest s you would like me to reach out to or would like more opinions on. I can be reached at

  • Segment 1: The Junior Miner Junky, David Erfle joins me to recap a recent site visit he was on in the Yukon. We chat about 3 companies he visited and an overall investment strategy for the area.
  • Segment 2: After a steady stream of drill results out of the Pine Point Project I have received a few very detailed questions for Osisko Metals. The President and CEO Jeff Hussey joins me to address these questions.
  • Segment 3: Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group shares how the recent move to cash by has hurt the metals complex overall.
  • Segment 4: We wrap up the first hour with Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. Topics discussed include the infractions of tariffs and more hawkish central banks.

Exclusive Company Updates and News

Segment 1

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Segment 2

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Segment 3

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Segment 4

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    Jun 30, 2018 30:52 AM

    Thanks to Cory, Big Al, and the KER contributors for another Weekend Show.

    Ever Upward!

    Jun 30, 2018 30:23 AM

    Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (6/29/2018)

    Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum

      Jun 30, 2018 30:25 AM

      A Tough Week for Gold

      Gary Wagner – June 29, 2018 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis #Gold #Dollar #Silver

        Jun 30, 2018 30:33 AM

        Bottoms never look like bottoms in real time

        SmartMoneyTracker – Gold Chart showing bottoms the bears didn’t see coming

          Jun 30, 2018 30:34 AM

          Gold & Silver: Big Picture Charts

          Morris Hubbartt – Jun 29, 2018

          Super Force Precious Metals #Video #TechnicalAnalysis

            Jun 30, 2018 30:12 AM

            Good editorial Bob M. Agreed. 🙂

            “The dollar may have bottomed lately and sentiment towards gold and silver as measured by the DSI has dropped to a value of 10 into the “gag me with a spoon zone” where long suffering investors barf up their shares just in time to miss the next rally. Anything below a sentiment reading of 10 most often marks lows. With any more declines this week, the DSI will dip even lower increasing the probability of a tradable low.”

            Jun 30, 2018 30:14 AM

            I would almost wonder if the Dollar has put in a shorter term top though near 95-96 resistance. If the dollar pulls back it could actually help turn the metals back up.

            Jun 30, 2018 30:28 AM

            Full Moon on 28 June 2018 Thursday


            Jun 30, 2018 30:30 AM

            > On June 28, 2018 at 4:19 am,
            Excelsior says:

            “Sentiment is low in the metals, pricing is getting down to oversold levels, yet gold is still above the most recent low of $1238 (and nowhere close to the Dec 2015 low of $1045.40) so all the blustering bearish nonsense won’t last much longer. It’s quite possible the reversal will start in many sectors after today’s full moon madness as a turning point. A bounce is overdue on a short-term basis, and medium term I’d still expect to see a nice rally out of late August into September that may kick off a much larger rally into Q1 of 2019.”

            “Those languishing in daily despair are only working themselves up into a frenzy on moves of less than 1%. Pretty silly, but that what makes a market.”

            Jun 30, 2018 30:37 AM

            It remains to be seen on if the Full Moon Madness on June 28th did mark the bottom or not, but on Friday we saw Gold move back up a bit higher on day, so we’ll see what next week brings for follow through.


            Jun 30, 2018 30:15 AM


            I do hope you realize that was last year. Gold went from $1210 to $1370 in two months. It was a tradable low.

            This is this year.


            The DSI was actually lower but the COTs weren’t quite as good as last year. I expect at least a similar move.

            And anyone saying it’s not possible to call lows is dead wrong.

            Jun 30, 2018 30:14 AM

            Robert, the odds are extremely good that you nailed it again…


            Jun 30, 2018 30:22 AM


            I love your charts. You do something I couldn’t possibly do. I wonder just how many people here recognize how much you and Ex contribute that is real and can be cashed at any bank.

            Jun 30, 2018 30:05 PM

            Thank you Bob.

            For all the bears and scared bulls, I want to point out that gold is in far better shape than you think. In 2016, it blasted 30% to the 233 week moving average — which, of course, acted as resistance. Despite that MA being in a steep decline, that resistance held until July, 2017. However, since then (49 weeks now), gold has bullishly remained above that MA resistance. Since the 233 week MA was falling steeply for most of the time since the 2016 high and has only recently begun to rise (slightly), all the nervousness about gold has been a complete waste of energy.
            Absolutely nothing bearish has occurred to justify big-picture bearishness. I have never, in any sector, seen price sustain a run to the upside unless the 233 MA is no longer falling —and usually rising, not flat. So this technical aspect has now been repaired and it only took as LITTLE time as it did because 2016 was so good. Once the next move up gets going, it could be many years before the 233 week MA is visited again. It took 11 years during the last bull.


            Jun 30, 2018 30:08 PM

            Looking at a long term chart of the XAU, I’d say it now 2003 again, only better…


            Jun 30, 2018 30:22 PM

            At the beginning of the last bull market, silver lagged gold and took roughly 18 months longer to turn the 233 week MA into support. If history repeats, then silver will get it done sometime around Christmas (I think it will happen a little sooner – history rhymes).

            Jun 30, 2018 30:49 PM

            Thanks Bob M. Yes, I didn’t realize that was the 2017 version at first glance but great call once again.

            Yes, I agree with you that “anyone saying it’s not possible to call lows is dead wrong.”

            We nailed the double bottom in gold on here, I was within $.70 from over a year out on one my targets which was $1044.70 and gold actually bottomed at $1045.40, and Mike & nailed the double bottom in Oil on here on the day of, and I’ve seen plenty of good technicians like Matthew, or Rick A, or Avi G. or Morris H. or Gary W. nail bottoms or call the targets spot on.

            Bob you’ve nailed a few tops and bottoms spot on as well, and I’m always excited if you tell everyone to get back in the pool at a bottom. Cheers!

            Jun 30, 2018 30:03 PM

            I agree with Ex about about Bob’s comments to get back in the pool. I didn’t see it this time around. Did I miss it?

            Jul 01, 2018 01:41 AM

            “I would almost wonder if the Dollar has put in a shorter term top though near 95-96 resistance. If the dollar pulls back it could actually help turn the metals back up.”

            I would guess the USD is putting in a longer-term top. At the beginning of May I posted the following chart, stating that if the breakout from the pitchfork stuck, then the USD might get up to the 94-95 level. Now it’s done that, and there is plenty of overhead resistance on the weekly and monthly charts, and a nasty downside reversal from resistance on the daily chart:


            Jul 01, 2018 01:51 AM

            The Canadian dollar put in a powerful swing low this past week on the daily charts, and may have just put in an ICL:


            Jul 01, 2018 01:57 AM

            The Euro doesn’t look quite as strong to my eye, so if this is indeed a longer term reversal and resumption of a long/term downtrend in the $USD, the Euro may be saying that it will be more of a process than a rapid reversal:


            Jul 01, 2018 01:24 AM

            GH – Good thoughts on the Dollar and global currencies.

          Jun 30, 2018 30:39 PM

          Hi GARY Savage! Gary is losing subs because of his nasty attitude and crappy TA. So he’s gone from chastising and calling his potential subs “stupid” to post here in fake names….you see so much better guys give his service away FREE on you tube. In fact it seems that Gary Savage is stealing this guys work,

        Jul 01, 2018 01:34 PM

        The next few weeks should be interesting for sure, but it’s possible Gold bottomed and the dollar put in a short-term top during full moon madness on 06/28/18.

        Check out that engulfing bullish green candle on 06/29/18.

          Jul 01, 2018 01:37 PM

          The Gold Chart above from Gary Wagner, shows that when measured from the most recent “higher low” from Dec 2017 of $1238 to the most recent 2018 high of $1269, that Gold has violated all the Fibonacci support levels on the way down, which makes a double bottom at $1238 the next major line of support.

          However, if Gold really did bottom on 06/28/18, then the large bullish engulfing candle on 06/29/18 was the tell…..

      Jun 30, 2018 30:41 AM

      Longer term Gold chart shows that if we are seeing a short-term bottom on the 28th, that this recent rout downwards is still putting in a higher low than the prior $1238 low.

      Jul 01, 2018 01:00 AM

      China Think Tank Warns Of Potential ‘Financial Panic’ In Leaked Note

      Wednesday, 27 June, 2018

      “A leaked report from a Chinese government-backed think tank has warned of a potential “financial panic” in the world’s second-largest economy, a sign that some members of the nation’s policy elite are growing concerned as market turbulence and trade tensions increase.”

      “Bond defaults, liquidity shortages and the recent plunge in financial markets pose particular dangers at a time of rising US interest rates and a trade spat with Washington, according to a study by the National Institution for Finance & Development (NIFD) which was seen by Bloomberg News and confirmed by a NIFD official.”

      “The think tank warned that leveraged purchases of shares have reached levels last seen in 2015 – when the stock market fell by a third, wiping US$5 trillion off the value of Chinese equities.”

      “We think China is currently very likely to see a financial panic,” NIFD said in the study, which appeared briefly on the internet on Monday, before being removed. “Preventing its occurrence and spread should be the top priority for our financial and macroeconomic regulators over the next few years.”

      Jul 01, 2018 01:10 AM

      Is There Really Five Years of Above-Ground Uranium Supply to Keep Spot Price Suppressed?

      @MiningStockEdu on July 1, 2018

      “Now, in uranium, the fuel cycle is 12 to 24 months, because first of all, you’ve got to mine the uranium and ship it to the converter, then it needs to be converted into a gas, UF6. Then it needs to be enriched, which is a difficult and expensive process, then it needs to be converted into an oxide, then it needs to be fabricated into the fuel rods that go into the reactors. And there’s a whole lot of transport in between all of that.”

      “So, included in that inventory, is all of the material that’s working its way through that fuel cycle. So by definition, the world needs about two years minimum inventory just to know that the fuel is coming into the reactors in two years’ time.”

      “On top of that, utilities like to keep strategic reserves. So, I said before that the cost of U3O8 as a proportion of electricity in a nuclear power plant is about 3%. So, to carry a bit more of that is a very sensible thing for a utility to do because the price and the cost of running out of it and not being able to produce power is catastrophic.”

      “So the utilities typically want to carry between two and three years of strategic supply in any case. And they’re running at about three throughout the world. So that’s that extra one year of inventory. So, it is having an impact on the market. It’s allowed the utilities to continue their current hold on procurement. So it’s contributed to the price inertia that we talked about before. It’s also created an environment where the utilities remain feeling quite comfortable, some would even say complacent.”

    Jun 30, 2018 30:06 AM

    Silver set for lacklustre gains in late 2018

    Norther Miner Staff – June 22, 2018

    “After a disappointing 2017, the lacklustre tone for the silver price has largely continued so far this year, moving broadly sideways in a US$16 to US$18 per oz. range.

    To a large extent, this has been a function of range-bound conditions in gold which has seen a general lack of institutional investor interest. In particular, a positive macroeconomic backdrop, rising bond yields and subdued inflation have all weighed on the precious metals complex.

    In addition, short-lived weakness in equities earlier this year failed to dent investor sentiment — a stance that was reinforced by a strong earnings season in the United States.

    For 2018, we expect the challenging environment for silver to persist over the near-term.

    Despite this, Metals Focus expects conditions across global financial markets will become more supportive for precious metal prices later this year. For example, political developments in Italy, periodic spikes in geopolitical tensions and the potential for a destabilizing trade war should all boost sentiment towards precious metals.

    As a result, silver is likely to spend the last few months of 2018 trending upwards. This in turn will see the full-year average price rise 2% year-over-year to US$17.40. As such, we believe a venture above US$20, even if only short-lived, is likely during the final quarter of this year.

    The forecast is also based on the premise that the downturn in the U.S. dollar will resume later this year, driven in part by expectations of a tightening monetary policy in the eurozone. In the U.S., we could see a further flattening of the treasury yield curve, which would be bearish for the greenback.”

      Jun 30, 2018 30:26 AM

      If Silver really did “venture above US$20” in the 4th quarter, the Silver miners would really make a nice move higher. Personally I’ve invested with an interest in that risk/reward set up, and have positioned for a nice move in the silver miners in the late 3rd quarter into the 4th quarter. It’s not a speculation without risk, but it’s one I feel comfortable making.

      Wishing everyone well in their investing.

      Jun 30, 2018 30:06 AM

      A bit depressing that the rally in silver might not start until the fourth quarter. I’m prepared to wait until the cows come home if that is what it takes.

        Jun 30, 2018 30:51 PM

        I believe we’ll see it start in the 3rd quarter, and intensify into the 4th quarter, but thought the article from Northern Miner summed things up well and like to listen to differing viewpoints.

      Jul 01, 2018 01:46 PM

      Sprott Update with Rick Rule:

      Vancouverites are Far More Familiar the Cannabis Business than Mining

      “Rick feels we are in a commodity bull market albeit a rather boring one. However, boredom is better for an investor then terror. The ability to buy in over time without having to compete with the dumb money and uneducated speculators is positive. Good well managed companies are still able to raise capital.”

    Jun 30, 2018 30:57 AM

    Thanks to Cory and Al for th weekend show.

    Jun 30, 2018 30:18 AM

    The house of cards / derivative bubble is upon us now.

    The charts:
    $INDU just closed two weeks in a row under the 33 WMA, which has been support for so long now. There also is going to be a very important cross on the weekly ADX. INDU also crossed under the 200 day for five days ending with a black shooting star.
    The VIX is five days above the 200 with a bull hammer.
    $ NYSE closes six days under the 200 ending with a black shooting star candle.
    JNK (junk bonds) are closes under the 200 day after getting hit hard the last few days.
    Deutsche bank closed two days in a row sporting black candles, and when it closes under 10 per share, triggers the coco bonds.
    It starts the derivative bubble.
    ( I could go on and on about the charts, it’s quite evident already )

    The fundamentals:
    The countries of the EU are about to exit the EU. That’s a huge financial event, as they will issue their own currency and not be controlled by the central bankers. They will have a treasury controlled by the people. It’s a Very Big Deal!

    Thursday the Fed announced the stress test winners. Those winners announced they are buying back billions of stock shares (from the fed) pulling credit (liquidity) from junk bonds that the fed gave them permission to do. The doesn’t want to hold stock shares in a declining market. The banks want to wring out all the liquid they can before the junk bonds get smoked. After all, they can buy CDSs (credit default swaps) and take the assets with the default.

    The timing:
    The timing of all of this is at the end of a quarter, the beginning of a new fiscal year , and the end/beginning of a long term cycle.

    Derivatives are 65% of the money supply. When they go away, new money will hit the system. Thing belt and road, think infrastructure.
    It’s all good news.
    Oh yeah, Bitcoin is a derivative too.

    The derivative bubble is here, says the Fed, says the banks, says the charts.(ter)

    Jun 30, 2018 30:50 PM


    27th June 2018 – Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

    “Prices of lithium carbonate, a key lithium ion battery raw material, have increased nearly 40% in the last 12 months as a wave of global electric vehicle (EV) production begins to have a sustained impact on the industry.”

    “Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Lithium Carbonate South America (99%, FOB) price – a region which accounts for 68% of global lithium carbonate production – has increased from $11,500/tonne in June 2017 to a mid-point average of $15,750/tonne in Benchmark’s latest Lithium Price Assessment.”

    Jun 30, 2018 30:46 PM

    Thanks for the weekend show guys as always.
    Much appreciate your efforts.

    Jul 01, 2018 01:55 AM

    Hi Bob and Mat.
    Thank you very much for great posts.
    I also find Tom’s correlation graphs quite amusing.
    The problem is they often lack causality explorations.
    One of Tom’s graphs that I can not get out of my head, is a graph where He shows that uranium is leading gold… I have the feeling you that this could be right.

      Jul 01, 2018 01:17 AM

      Anders, I am rooting for the Danes to beat the Croats today. Best of luck!

    Jul 01, 2018 01:31 AM


    In my experience people have a tendency to make things way too complex and miss out on profit because they can’t find causality. I don’t know why sentiment works, I don’t know why the full moon seems to work but if you can time a turn worth $150 of gain in gold over the next two months, who cares?

    You don’t need to understand everything as long as you understand something that is signal rather than noise.

      Jul 01, 2018 01:12 PM

      👍 cheers, Bob.
      I like your attitude; if it works, don’t try to make up a reason and over-explain.
      By the way, I am still sticking to my NVO. 😎

        Jul 01, 2018 01:15 PM


        The last press release from Novo was a lot more significant than the market gave them credit for. Basically they have tracked the same near surface mineralization for 6.5 km (that they are willing to admit) That’s a BFD and who cares how the gold got there?

    Jul 01, 2018 01:17 AM

    The weekly $CRB commodities index couldn’t look much better:

      Jul 01, 2018 01:19 AM

      The $CRB:$SPX ratio put in a powerful swing low reversal to the up side this week with massive bullish divergence in the indicators:

        Jul 01, 2018 01:24 AM

        This ratio put in a higher low with this swing low. If it takes out the recent high of 0.0764, and I think it will, I would take that as pretty good confirmation that the long-term reversal in commodities versus the US stock market is in.

        Jul 01, 2018 01:32 AM

        The Dow:Commodities ratio reinforces the message:

        Note the lower high on the failed attempt to retake the 50 week simple moving average.

    Jul 01, 2018 01:37 AM

    Follow the yellow brick road – #Gold

    Jul 01, 2018 01:54 PM

    Thank you Cory, Mr. Korelin, for another great show! Always appreciate the information from everybody else!

    Jul 01, 2018 01:57 PM

    I’ll throw my hat in the ring with Robert and Matthew–I see a lot of positive signals across many precious metals charts.

    Over the next few weeks to few months, at least, it looks like gold miners will be a better place to be than uranium:

    Jul 02, 2018 02:17 AM

    I love silver, but for the moment I think junior to mid gold miners (GDXJ) is where it’s at:

      Jul 02, 2018 02:21 AM

      The bullish divergence in the indicators on the SGDJ daily chart indicates that it may be set to start ouperforming GDXJ for a while, imminently:

      All just opinions for conversational purposes, etc., of course.

    Jul 02, 2018 02:44 AM

    I don’t like that the $hui put in a black candle on Thursday at all. Would have preferred we clear it out sooner rather than later. Based on the miners relative strength today and the fact that we are so late in the gold weekly cycle leads me to believe it will be later. So expect some sort of rally soon up to the 50 or more likely 100 WMA before it rolls over.

    Jul 02, 2018 02:02 AM

    GLD has broken solidly below the weekly Ichimoku cloud. Just another factor that suggest any bounce will be relatively muted.

      Jul 02, 2018 02:28 AM

      oops, the above was start of construction.
      First Westinghouse AP1000® Nuclear Plant Sanmen 1 Completes Initial Criticality on 6/1/18.

      /And was connected to the grid yesterday. 7/1/18

    Jul 02, 2018 02:33 AM

    Nuclear power capacity worldwide is increasing steadily, with about 50 reactors under construction.
    Most reactors on order or planned are in the Asian region, though there are major plans for new units in Russia.
    Significant further capacity is being created by plant upgrading.
    Plant lifetime extension programs are maintaining capacity, particularly in the USA.
    Today there are about 450 nuclear power reactors operating in 30 countries plus Taiwan, with a combined capacity of over 390 GWe. In 2015 these provided 2571 billion kWh, about 11% of the world’s electricity.About 50 power reactors are currently being constructed in 13 countries (see Table below), notably China, India, UAE and Russia.Each year, the OECD’s International Energy Agency (IEA) sets out the present situation as well as reference and other – particularly carbon reduction – scenarios. In the 2017 edition of its World Energy Outlook report, the IEA’s ‘New Policies Scenario’ sees installed nuclear capacity growth of over 25% from 2015 (about 404 GWe) to 2040 (about 516 GWe). The scenario envisages a total generating capacity of 11,960 GWe by 2040, with the increase concentrated heavily in Asia, and in particular China (33% of the total). In this scenario nuclear’s contribution to global power generation increases to about 14% of the total.

    Jul 02, 2018 02:14 AM

    The dow hasn’t even tagged its rising 50 WMA yet, despite all of the people calling for a major top. It’s weekly MACD has also not even reached neutral yet. Gold, on the other hand, knifed through its 50 and 100 WMA like they weren’t even there and is about to breach the 200 WMA.

    I find it absolutely hilarious that people are still trying to make the case that commodities are about to go on some 1970s tear. We couldn’t be further away fro such a rally. Call me when GCC/$CRB get back above the 300 WMA.