Weekend Show – Sat 7 Jul, 2018

Hour 1 – Oversold Markets And Central Banks Continuing To Tinker

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It was a broken up week but there were some noteworthy events. The Fed minutes didn’t tell us anything new but there was some jobs data and the implementation of tariffs. none of these seemed to move the markets. This week we discuss some oversold markets, the precious metals and get another interesting company update regarding an ongoing takeover offer.

I hope everyone has a great weekend! I love hearing from all of you so please email me at Fleck@kereport.com with any company recommendations and topics of interest.

  • Segment 1: Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold kicks off the show with a look at the precious metals. We address how the stocks moved this week and comment on the gold:silver ratio.
  • Segment 2: Anaconda Mining had a busy week. The Company increased its offer to Maritime shareholders but included a contingency and released drill results from Goldboro. Dustin Angelo joins me to outline the finer details.
  • Segment 3: Chris Martenson, Co-Founder of Peak Prosperity, says fundamental analysis does not work anymore thanks to central banks.
  • Segment 4: We wrap up the first hour with Raghee Horner, Futures and Currency expert at Simpler Trading shares her thoughts on a couple markets that are attractive investments.

Exclusive Company Updates and News This Week

Segment 1

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Segment 2

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Segment 3

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Segment 4

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Jordan Roy-ByrneChris MartensonCory Fleck

  1. On July 7, 2018 at 3:13 am,
    Skeeta says:

    Thanks as always fella’s for your efforts in putting the weekend show together.
    Much appreciated.

    • On July 7, 2018 at 10:35 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed. Thanks Cory & Big and all the KER contributors.

      Cheers (and weekend beers)!

  2. On July 7, 2018 at 4:59 am,
    CFS says:

    Jim Willie on gold and oil, etc.


    • On July 7, 2018 at 8:51 am,
      Bonzo Barzini says:

      Thanks CFS, you just blew my mind. Al had better listen to this.

  3. On July 7, 2018 at 8:52 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    Angleterra 2-Sverige 0 !!!

  4. On July 7, 2018 at 8:57 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On July 7, 2018 at 9:18 am,
      Matthew says:
      • On July 7, 2018 at 11:14 am,
        Charles says:

        Thanks for the gold chart update. The log scale scenario is quite interesting. Next week truly will be key.

        • On July 7, 2018 at 11:35 am,
          Matthew says:

          I have to confess that I have no worries about next week. Everything looks “right” even though not perfect.


          • On July 7, 2018 at 1:36 pm,
            Charles says:

            That’s great. I am more than ready for this correction to be over.

          • On July 8, 2018 at 11:30 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Looks like a reversal in gold off that SMA envelope support band from this weeks action. It may be that the low Daily Sentiment Index reading near 10 in Gold and oversold conditions on the oscillators, coupled with the Full Moon event, and the Trade War jitters allowed Gold to put in a short-term bottom for a little rally.

          • On July 8, 2018 at 12:24 pm,
            Matthew says:

            We’re in for a rally but I doubt that it will be little. This low looks like a significant one to me, not short term.


          • On July 8, 2018 at 12:25 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On July 8, 2018 at 12:33 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On July 8, 2018 at 2:34 pm,
            Charles says:

            This guy is predicting a short term run followed by an undercut low if 1312 on the August contract isn’t taken out. His medium term indicator (proprietary and somewhat of a black box) has not turned yet so his view is 1312 will not be taken out on this pass


          • On July 8, 2018 at 3:24 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The guy has a lot of company and states the obvious when he says that “holding below (1313) favors lower lows…”
            Of course he could be right but his scenario doesn’t look likely to me.

          • On July 8, 2018 at 4:06 pm,
            Charles says:

            I tend to agree with you. A lot of people are looking lowerwhich seems like a perfect time to just keep going up for a while to make folks start chasing again.

          • On July 9, 2018 at 5:26 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Good thoughts Matthew & Charles. Yeah, I’ll be looking to see if that $1310-$1312 resistance can be taken out on this rally, and if so it could be a much larger run.

            Still it will be a tradable rally nonetheless. Cheers!

        • On July 7, 2018 at 11:36 am,
          Matthew says:
        • On July 7, 2018 at 11:42 am,
          Matthew says:

          It might be another week before silver starts to outperform gold meaningfully.


  5. On July 7, 2018 at 10:28 am,
    Charles says:

    Thanks for the show and update from Anaconda.

  6. On July 7, 2018 at 10:39 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Recently I was on a rant on a different blog, disagreeing with those that feel the last 2 years was the continuation of the bear and that we are now 7 years into a bear.


    It is funny (and encouraging) to read the negative sentiment and erroneous claims that that move in 2016 as nothing more than a “dead cat bounce” or a “relief rally” in a bear maket, as those comments are wrong on many levels technically.


    First of all, a “dead cat bounce” or “relief rally” is when an equity is still in a cyclical bear market and bounces, but will resume the downtrend; and that is clearly NOT what happened in Gold as it never got anywhere close to the $1045.40 low from December 2015 in 2 & 1/2 years, and put in a series of “higher lows”.

    In fact, some pundits seem to have amnesia that in 2018 the high of $1369 in #Gold actually already took out the 2017 high of $1362, so Gold is much closer to making new highs than new lows. (yeah – uber bear action……)

    When Gold surged for the first 8 months of 2016 it took out a number of prior peaks & the 2013 spike down trough that really accelerated the bear market, and those hadn’t been cleared in years. That makes 2016 an “impulse leg” higher because it took out the most recent prior peaks, (actually Gold took out about 3 of them – bear market rallies don’t do that).

    Next up, Gold pricing surged up through a number of key prior moving averages (233, 144, 89) day EMAs, that it hadn’t surpassed in years. This was also true on the weekly charts. In addition, the EMAs reverted back to the shorter ones on top and the longer duration ones on the bottom, where in the bear market the shorter were on the bottom and the longer were on top. Those were 2 more key clues that the bear market had truly ended in the metal in Dec 2015. Relief rallies don’t do that.

    Lastly, 2016 broke down most of the normal seasonality trends in an outside year where the metals continued rallying through the PDAC curse in March, and then powering through the remainder of Spring and into the Summer Doldrums to new highs. It was very unusual and strong action.

    Gold got too far ahead of itself and corrected back down during late Aug – Oct (a time that is typically a strong seasonal period for Gold). That move up for the 8 months into August showed how strong the energy being released was and was yet another tell that this was not just a fluke or a relief rally, so the consolidation since then makes sense to digest those gains.

    Pundits that are now dismissing the move up in 2016 as some kind of novelty, or just a nice little bounce don’t seem to understand the gravity of that move up, the overhead resistance that was sliced through like a hot knife through butter, and how that definitively ended the bear market once and for good.

    Gold has been in a new bull market since the tail end of Dec 2015 and has been making higher lows ever since. It is nowhere close to $1045.50, and took out the 2017 high this year.

    Unless Gold takes out $1238 to the downside then even that trend upwards of higher lows has not been negated either. If we were still in a 7 year bear market then Gold would have pierced it’s bear market low of $1045.40 back in 2016, or 2017, or even in 2018. It’s nowhere close, so people need to put things in perspective.

    > The bull shakes off as many riders as possible on the way up and when it is more obvious many of the easy gains will have been made. Nothing ever changes with fickel retail investors. #TragicComedy

    • On July 7, 2018 at 10:42 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Investors that positioned in late 2015 & early 2016 really set up the last 2+ years well, and are still sitting on gains if they were buy and hold;… but old turkeys get run over in the commodities space, and it is much better to trade the rallies and trim some profits when they are in favor.

      #Gold added $200-$300 (from the $1045.40 bear low) for most of the last 2 1/2 years, which provided plenty of opportunities for gains, and that wasn’t continuation of the bear by any stretch. Even if investors missed the initial 2016 impulse leg up that ended the bear market, there were still a number of other tradable rallies on the Gold roller-coaster, (Q1 Run in 2017; Aug-September seasonal rally in 2017; Q1 run coming off the Dec 2017 FOMC rate hike).

      Bears conveniently forget to mention those tradable rallies acting like all was despair the last few years. (it wasn’t) They like to measure from the 2016 peak in every example, acting like that is where everyone got positioned. It is interesting how that argument gets destroyed when you measure Gold or many miners from the Major low that ended the bear market in Dec 2015 (which was the most significant point to analyze the bull market that has followed since). There was plenty of time, and plenty of volume in the metals and miners showing investors got positioned long before Aug 2016, and have continued to trade in and out of the market since then. Some did great, some have a wash, and some lost — That’s what makes a market though.

      Over the last 2+ years, many #explorers still had periods where they surged on good news & market speculation, #developers or companies in production with the right assets were #takeover success stories at a premium for nice % gains, and companies improving their #production gradually climbed higher as they were rerated.

      >> Look here is a #chart of 10 #Producers just over the last 200 days that have provided investors that positioned in late 2017 with very nice gains compared to the general stock market:


      At present, many miners are back down off their recent highs of the last few years, so there is plenty of time to get positioned for the next impulse leg higher. Taking out the 2016 high will bring in more institution and retail money off the sidelines. Unfortunately, the majority of investors will wait until Gold moves up over those highs for confirmation and the miners will have moved up 50-100% before they feel it is “safe” to get back in the water. (missing the easiest rerating gains)

      Investors love to cry low and buy high…. some things never change.

      • On July 7, 2018 at 10:56 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Crucial Factors Why Silver Will Increase More Than Gold During The Next Financial Collapse

        July 3, 2018

        Has to do with the collapse in the value of most assets as U.S. and global oil production plummets.
        The above-ground investment inventories and supplies of gold and silver are about the same.”

        “… Stocks, Bonds, and Real Estate derive their value from the burning of “more” energy in the future. It is essential that you understand the use of “More” in the previous sentence.”

        “When global oil production declines, so will growth and GDP. Without growth, the highly leverage debt-based financial and economic system will disintegrate. ”

        “As we can see, there was 2.25 billion oz of investment gold above-ground versus 2.59 billion ounces of investment silver. When regular investors begin to rotate out of increasingly worthless Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate and into precious metals, there just isn’t that much more silver than gold for investors to acquire.”


        • On July 7, 2018 at 11:24 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Gold 6 month Low in place?

          July 3, 2018 – Surf City

          “The next step for Gold is a close above the 10ma on the Daily followed by a close above the 10wma on the Weekly near 1287/1288. The miners have already done this — my 3rd chart on GDX chart shows that the miners do not seem to want to wait for the metals. I forecasted this Low (ICL) in last weekend’s report, but again, a bit more confirmation is needed before adding. Gold did test the 10ma on the daily today but could not close above it (see second chart)…”


          • On July 7, 2018 at 11:30 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Gold Selling Exhausting

            Adam Hamilton – Jul 06, 2018

            “A month ago when gold was still near $1300, I published my latest research on its summer doldrums. The first halves of market summers including Junes and early Julies have long tended to be the weakest times of the year seasonally for gold. They are simply devoid of the recurring seasonal demand surges gold enjoys during most of the rest of the year. With investors not interested in buying, gold languishes.”


    • On July 7, 2018 at 10:58 am,
      Excelsior says:

      > Newton Interviews with Dustin Angelo $ANX

      by @Newton on July 6, 2018

      “We can offer a premium to the entire Maritime shareholder base. We thought it was compelling to increase our bid in order to make that more forceful. We also believe that there’s a very good combination here of the two companies putting together a substantial operating base on the Baie Vert Peninsula, where we have existing infrastructure, production, and a team with experience. We have a 15-plus years of talent capacity.”

      “We’re trying to put forward our best offer and give the shareholders of Maritime the opportunity to participate in in this combination, which I think will do a lot of a lot more good than Maritime going on it’s own.”


      • On July 7, 2018 at 10:59 am,
        Excelsior says:

        July 3, 2018

        “As a result of the warrant exercise, the Company issued 2.6 million common shares from treasury and received total proceeds of $2.73 million.”

        “K92 is well financed, has a strong balance sheet, and mining and processing operations are cash-flow positive.”


        • On July 7, 2018 at 11:03 am,
          Excelsior says:

          (KNT) K92 Mining looks set to really break out in the medium term.

          They’ve done a great job of expanding their resource through the drill bit, hit the new Kora zone which greatly improved their economics, they are profitable at production now, and they just raised money with out of the money warrants (showing the confidence in their project that investors have).

          They really have turned their operations around over the last year, and are finally starting to get re-rated for a job well done, but there is still plenty of room to run in this one over the next few years.


          • On July 7, 2018 at 5:27 pm,
            CFS says:

            K92 Mining Inc. (TSXV:KNT.VN) (OTCQX:KNTNF) is “K92”

            K92 is well financed, has a strong balance sheet, and mining and processing operations are now cash-flow positive.

            As announced on June 26, 2018, K92 prepared an updated resource estimate on Kora North based on results from underground grade control and exploration diamond drilling, and face sampling. The updated resource estimate comprises a measured resource of 242,900 tonnes at 13.9 grams per tonne gold, 19 g/t silver and 1.0 percent copper; an indicated resource of 442,800 tonnes at 11.8 g/t Au, 21 g/t Ag and 1.2 percent Cu; and an inferred resources of 1,084,400 tonnes at 13.2 g/t Au, 15 g/t Ag and 1.0 percent Cu.

            Note the inferred resource concentrations!

    • On July 7, 2018 at 1:37 pm,
      Charles says:

      Agreed. Only contrarians make the big gains.

      • On July 7, 2018 at 7:24 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Zig when others Zag….

  7. On July 7, 2018 at 10:49 am,
    Matthew says:

    The miners are overbought relative to gold and look ready for a break…


    • On July 7, 2018 at 11:25 am,
      Matthew says:

      However, the more important weekly chart points to significantly more upside before there’s a correction of a scale that would be obvious on the weekly chart…


  8. On July 7, 2018 at 10:57 am,
    Matthew says:

    Conventional stocks are ready to rise…


  9. On July 7, 2018 at 11:08 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Dollar Rally Subsides as Selling Pressure in Gold Increases

    by Gary Wagner – July 6, 2018 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #Video


    • On July 7, 2018 at 11:10 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Bob Moriarty: Tradable Bottom In Precious Metals, Liquidity Crunch Looms in September/October

      by Ceo Technician – 5 July 2018

      “After a rough few months in the junior resource sector there are signs that the worst may be behind us and the seasonal tailwinds just over the horizon are a welcome respite for weary investors. Given the potential importance of this recent inflection point I felt it was a good time to have a conversation with Bob Moriarty and get his insights on investor sentiment and where we might be in the investing cycle. The conversation didn’t disappoint. Without further ado here is Energy & Gold’s July 2018 conversation with 321gold founder Bob Moriarty…”


      • On July 7, 2018 at 11:22 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (7/6/2018)

        Technical Analysis, Metals Report, Sales, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum


        • On July 7, 2018 at 1:19 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Special SKI Report #205
          Gold Stock Update: Potential Bull Market – USERX historicals

          Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D. – Written Sunday Jul 1, 2018

          “The expected decline from the potential bull market 92-96 index buy signal at USERX 7.59 has yielded supportive 16-20 index and 35-39 index signals each time that USERX has dropped to 7.51. Historically, the new 35-39 index signal can mark an exact low OR it can yield an intermediate-term bottoming process that can persist up to 35-39 trading days before the 35-39 index re-buys for a likely impulsive rise. The master 92-96 index’s back prices will take about 2 months to rise to the current price area, so if the 35-39 index does not re-buy during the normal 35-39 day time period, the bears will get the 92-96 index’s sell signal.

          We’re actually very close to a new 16-20 index resistance sell signal. A brief decline would then just generate another supportive 16-20 index buy signal. In fact, such a 16-20 index sell signal and buy signal can be followed by a rather explosive 35-39 index buy signal (BEFORE the next 16-20 index sell signal) within about just two weeks.”


  10. On July 7, 2018 at 1:13 pm,
    Excelsior says:


    Clive Maund – Tuesday, June 26, 2018

    “If there were any doubts that the Chinese stockmarket had entered a bearmarket, these were dispelled by the breach of key support at 3000 and plunge last week, which we can see to advantage on the 6-month chart for the Shanghai Composite index shown below. A tentative downtrend channel is drawn on this chart, but it is important to note that this drop could rapidly gather momentum and get a lot steeper now that the key 3000 level has been breached, making the channel shown obsolete, for reasons that become clear on the 5-year chart. For now, it is oversold on both its RSI and MACD indicators and close to trendline support, so we may see a bounce, although any such bounce is unlikely to get far before the decline resumes.”


  11. On July 8, 2018 at 3:53 am,
    Markedtofuture says:

    People Fleeing Jersey & California – Saying NO to Tax Increase


  12. On July 8, 2018 at 12:42 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Copper won’t be making a new high anytime soon…


    • On July 8, 2018 at 4:03 pm,
      Charles says:

      Looks like my NSU shares will continue to drift lower.

  13. On July 8, 2018 at 3:26 pm,
    Matthew says:

    GDXJ:GDX supports the bullish case…


  14. On July 8, 2018 at 3:45 pm,
    Matthew says:
  15. On July 9, 2018 at 8:14 am,
    Charles says:

    Nice pop on ISVLF this morning on above average volume.