Hour 1 – Market Leaders and What Actually Matters For The Markets
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Another week in the books and more of the same. More tariff/trade war fears and more tweets by Trump stirring up trouble. The precious metals broke-down further as the week progressed but recovered a little bit on Thursday and Friday. To no surprise US equities continued to largely ignore the news and trend higher however the breadth is very weak.
On this weekend’s show we only spend one segment on the metals and focus our attention on what is working in the markets. Please keep in touch and let me know what you think of the show. I love hearing from everyone. My email address is Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1: Jordan Roy-Byrne kicks off the show with comments on the PMs and the recent pull back. There are some key breakdowns that happened over the past couple weeks.
- Segment 2: A new guest to the weekend show Mike Larson, Editor of The Safe Money Report shares his insights on the defensive plays that are performing well.
- Segment 3: Fund Manager Dana Lyons discusses why he uses a 2-6 month time frame for investing. We look at the trends in the US markets as well as silver to outline where the markets are heading.
- Segment 4: Chris Martenson, Co-Founder of Peak Prosperity – US market breadth, 10 year US deficit outlook, and current Fed policy.
Segment 1
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Segment 2
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Segment 3
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Segment 4
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Ha! CFS – I just realized that you had posted a link here about the sale of Equinox’s mill to Inca Gold, because there wasn’t a description above your link. I just saw the “Thanks for the show” and missed the link. Oh well, it is interesting news regardless.
Re: Segment 1
Gold is really being forgotten by the general public. We’re supposed to be in the Summer Doldrums anyway, but I have never seen the price of gold so closely following the COMEX expiration dates in the narrow range of $1,200 to $1,300. The news from Bix Weir about “millions of ounces” of gold in the Grand Canyon and the Russian ship being found with several billions of dollars of gold bars and gold coins in this week hasn’t helped the “dwindling supply” story either.
Silver isn’t even keeping level, no one cares about silver either.
It will take several bank failures, digital currency scandals, and the like to bring precious metals back to the forefront. Continuous news stories about US national debt, European national debt, Russian national debt, etc.
David Brady, CFA – GlobalProTrader
“#SILVER COT – Bullish. Worthy of a sizeable bounce. Funds now net short 9k. They’ve been shorter recently but have added 50k in net shorts in just the past 5 weeks. Commercials are now net short -25k, a drop of 42k in 5 weeks. Banks are long again, 10k, having added 23k in longs.”
https://twitter.com/GlobalProTrader/status/1020506042247991296
(EXN) (EXLLF) Excellon Announces Q2 2018 Production Results
@newswire on July 12, 2018
>> Q2 2018 Production (compared to Q2 2017)
– Silver equivalent production increased 120% to 637,205 AgEq oz
(Q2 2017 – 289,566 AgEq oz)
– Silver production increased 73% to 277,701 oz (Q2 2017 – 160,820 oz)
– Lead production increased 117% to 1.8 million lb (Q2 2017 – 0.9 million lb)
– Zinc production increased 152% to 2.8 million lb (Q2 2017 – 1.1 million lb)
– All-in sustaining cost (“AISC”) of less than $10 per payable silver ounce achieved for the quarter
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/excellon-announces-q2-2018-production-results
Re: Segment 2
Two percent (2%) on a bond is incorrect. Inflation on currency is closer to 6% (shadowstats.com), which means you are losing 6% per year holding cash, or just -4% if you get a 2% bond. You need a 6-6.5% bond to just keep up with inflation. But where do you get an inflation-adjusted bond without counterparty risk for the long-term or short-term?
The primary uptrend line for Gold has two base data points: May 2005 and Winter 2015-16. A third and defining base data point may be forming now. Without this, expect lower prices.
August 1st ‘Rates Day’ will be interesting.
Gold monthly: https://s33.postimg.cc/xumsmlzb1/XAU_USD-20180720-_Monthly.png
Thanks for the show guys.
Charles, sorry for the delay but I responded to you question on Wednesday’s roundtable editorial. Cheers!
Thanks Ex. I’ll takr a look
Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trump, and the Fed
by Gary Wagner – July 20, 2018 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis #Gold #Dollar
https://thegoldforecast.com/video/tariffs-trade-wars-trump-and-fed
Wagner should not even consider shorting at these levels.
BDC – Agreed. Shorting Gold at these levels doesn’t seem to have as good of risk reward set up as it did near $1360. Sentiment levels are low, indicators are over sold, and this market has exhausted most of the selling pressure at this point.
I’m getting ready to start buying the Gold/Silver miners at these levels, and still expect a seasonal rally from August into September. I’m curious to see if Gold can bounce meaningfully in Aug/Sept, and challenge the $1377.50 high from 2016. That’s the line in the sand that must be broken to get money parked on the sidelines back into this sector and for any sustained momentum.
5 year Gold #Chart showing prior peaks, and recent breakdown below the pattern of “higher lows”.
Great Silver chart from a technician over at ceo.ca with the handle “Ty”:
__________________________________________________________________________
@Ty – “$SILVER energy point chart”
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1dkvav1-Screen%20shot%202018-07-18%20at%2011.02.01%20PM.png
Unusual Action in GDX/NUGT Amid A Critical Week For Gold
by @Goldfinger on July 18, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/unusual-action-in-gdxnugt-amid-a-critical-week-for-gold
Gold & Silver Price Update – Gold Breaks Down
iGold Advisor – Jul 18, 2018 #TechnicalAnalyis #Video
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (7/20/2018)
Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Does Technical Trading Really Work? Technical Analysis 101
Jonas Elmerraji – Apr 27, 2015
“In practice, #TechnicalAnalysis is a way to find high-probability setups in reaction to the market — trading setups that factor in potential price barriers such as supply, demand and market mechanics and that give the trader cues about the market move with the highest likelihood. Charts can’t help a trader predict a stock’s exact day-to-day price movement for the next five years, but they can help generate consistently profitable trades with preset price targets and stop loss levels.”
“Technicals can help you identify important levels on a stock’s price chart and then react when something actionable happens.”
https://www.thestreet.com/story/11089457/1/does-technical-trading-really-work.html
FundamentalAnalysis vs TechnicalAnalysis
By Madhuri Thakur
“Martin Schwartz, a successful wall street trader, gained reputation and wealth due to Technical Analysis. Whereas, Jim Rogers, a popular investor owes his success to Fundamental Analysis. Both of them may disagree on many concepts. But they will surely agree that emotional control is the most important path to follow.”
https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/fundamental-analysis-vs-technical-analysis/
From the article linked above:
_______________________________________
“Ultimately, the merit of any investment strategy should be based on the successes of its best practitioners — not the failure of those who don’t fully understand it. Plenty of institutional fund managers use technicals as one of their inputs in making investment decisions. And interestingly enough, the TA proponents actually significantly outperform their peers.”
“According to research done by David Smith, Christophe Faugère and Ying Wang, at the University of Albany and Kedge Business School Bordeaux, “With respect to mean and median values, the performance advantage of technical analysis is slight, but statistically significant. The contrast appears more salient during down markets, and when performance is measured relative to a primary benchmark.”
(IO) Inca One Gold Acquires the Koricancha Processing Facility in Peru
@newswire on July 17, 2018
“INCA ONE GOLD CORP. (IO) (INCAF) is pleased to announce that on July 13, 2018, it entered into a definitive purchase agreement to acquire 100% ownership of Anthem United Inc. (“Anthem”), which owns a 90.14% interest in the 350 tonnes per day Koricancha ore processing facility in Peru, from Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX) for cash and shares totaling approximately $16.3 million”
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/inca-one-gold-acquires-the-koricancha-processing-facility
(EQX) Equinox Gold Announces Agreement to Sell its Koricancha Mill
@nasdaq on July 17, 2018
“Equinox Gold is focused on becoming a leading mid-tier gold producer and advancing its core Aurizona and Castle Mountain gold mines. Further to the recently announced copper company spinout, this transaction allows Equinox Gold to retain upside exposure to Koricancha as a meaningful stakeholder of Inca One while staying consistent with the Company’s strategy of building and operating significant gold projects,” commented Christian Milau, CEO of Equinox Gold.
“Combining Koricancha with the operations of Inca One achieves operating efficiencies and meaningful scale in an industry characterized by smaller, single-asset operations, and provides a strong foundation for Inca One to build an industry leader in the Peruvian gold milling space.”
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/equinox-gold-announces-agreement-to-sell-its-koricancha
Hummingbird Res. (HUM.L) (HUMRF)
Q2 2018 Production Results and Operational Update
> Yanfolila highlights at 30 June 2018
· 33,101 ounces of gold poured at an AISC of US$790/oz
· Average grade of 3.43 g/t
· 38,726 ounces of gold sold at an average price of US$1,307 per ounce
· 500,000 Lost Time Incident (‘LTI’) free hours achieved during the quarter
· Exploration drilling campaign targeting conversion of Resources to Reserves commenced at the end of Q2
(MXSG) Mexus provides company update
July 20, 2018
“Mexus is pleased to announce that after a series of legal battles the company is now able to move forward at the Santa Elena mine. Mexus CEO Paul Thompson has scheduled meetings with several companies. These companies range from gold producers, major construction companies, to exploration/royalty operators. In addition, the company is researching the possibility of funding for the project. The Santa Elena is an advanced project with high possibilities of a large detachment shear zone resource with excellent gold grades. ”
“Added Mexus CEO Paul Thompson, “Mr. Lemas is doing great work at all of our properties and is taking his time to research and evaluate the ore at the 8 Brothers/370 mine. He understands that getting it right up front will assist later as we increase production. I’ve spoken to Mr. Lemas about the timeliness of this work and he ensures me that these steps are necessary and will actually save us time and money in the long run. Mexus is successfully moving forward on all of it properties and is merging the former small production objectives with the exploration and resource valuation of all of its properties which will be a larger production and economic achievement. I look forward to some big announcements in the near future.”
Barrick Gold is the undisclosed bidder for Detour Gold
Bloomberg News | a day ago |
http://www.mining.com/web/barrick-gold-undisclosed-bidder-detour-gold/
The case for S32 buying the Pegmont Project (VTT)
by @Pete on July 19, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@pete/the-case-for-s32-buying-the-pegmont-project
Conversations With Goldfinger #2: First Ever Interview With Economic Alpha
by @Goldfinger on July 20, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/conversations-with-goldfinger-2-first-ever-interview-with-economic-alpha
My Two Greatest Mistakes—And What You Can Learn from Them
by Louis James
https://ceo.ca/@duediligenceguy/my-two-greatest-mistakesand-what-you-can-learn-from-them
Sentiment Speaks: Gold Bears Are Roaring Louder
Jul. 15, 2018 – Avi Gilburt
“As we came into 2018, my expectation was that if GLD was able to hold over the 119 region into the summer, we could likely challenge the all-time highs in gold as early as the end of 2018. Unfortunately, with the break below 119, it is likely pushing off that potential until next year. Moreover, with the break below 117.40 this past week in the pre-market, we will need to see another setup develop before we will be ready for a major break out in gold. And, this will likely take weeks to months to re-create.”
“Now, before you take what I just said as me being bearish, I want to dispel you of that notion. Rather, when we review the larger degree perspectives we track in the metals market, the bigger picture is still looking quite bullish.”
“Many of you will look at the downtrend we are now within, and scratch your heads as to how I can possibly be bullish. Well, I don’t make determinations about the market based upon what happened yesterday. Rather, I view the pullback as approaching completion based upon its structure, as well as the supporting technical indicators. This is no different than when I turned “strongly bullish” at the end of 2015. Yes, we were still in a multi-year downtrend, but that downtrend structure was reaching its completion, similar to what I am seeing now on the larger degree. Now, the indications suggest that, while the market may yet see more weakness over the coming weeks, the bottom is likely a lot closer than most realize.”
“In fact, I am again seeing many articles coming out suggesting that you must stay away from metals. I am even seeing many articles coming out with perspectives presenting their certainty that gold is heading below $1,000. And, yes, many of them were written by those who were looking for a break down below $1,000 gold back in 2015/2016, and they missed one of the strongest rallies seen in the metals complex. I suspect they will be left in the same position as we look forward towards 2019.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4187270-sentiment-speaks-gold-bears-roaring-louder
continued thoughts from Avi Gilburt’s article linked above:
__________________________________________________________________
“I know that this consolidation has taken way longer than any of us expected. Unfortunately, timing is not something that one can analyze to a high degree of probability when it comes to markets. So, while this consolidation has certainly lasted much longer than I had expected, the basic overall larger degree structure which presented as bullish a year ago still remains quite intact, even though we have seen the passage of a significant amount of time. But, due to my fear of an extended pullback, I have strongly, and seemingly appropriately, urged all of my subscribers to stay away from leveraged instruments (3X ETF’s and options) until the market confirms its break out signal.”
“But, I do want to add one note before I sign off for the weekend. I track silver on a 144-minute chart, on which I use a MACD indicator. Each time that MACD indicator has presented with positive divergences, it has successfully signaled an imminent rally in silver without fail for years. While nothing is infallible, and we could certainly see a failure, the probabilities suggest we are closer to a bottoming than most realize. These types of divergences, when stretched, often build strength in the market which is then seen taking it strongly in the opposite direction. And, right now, it is screaming to me.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4187270-sentiment-speaks-gold-bears-roaring-louder
Another Chance: if You Missed $1,050 oz Gold in 2015
Jesse Felder – SilverDoctors – Jul 20, 2018 #VIDEO
“As a long term value investor, Jesse has written and commented publicly over the past few years about what he believes is an undervalued gold market.”
“He sees this latest price pullback as an opportunity for those who missed out in the late 2015 Gold Price action (when gold bottomed around $1,050 oz USD) to get into gold bullion and proven gold mining equities.”
Why Nuclear Power Must Be Part of the Energy Solution
By Richard Rhodes • July 19, 2018
John Quakes (quakes99)
“Cameco (TSX: $CCO; NYSE: $CCJ) will issue Q2 results after markets close on Wednesday, July 25, 2018. Cameco invites #uranium investors to join conference call Thursday, July 26, 2018 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. ☎️ ”
(Something’s up as they moved date & time 😉)
“My take on why Cameco $CCJ changed their earnings release & Conference Call date/times is that they knew media questions might result in significant material information being revealed while stock is trading, so decided to announce early & discuss before market opens. #uranium ” — John Quakes
Are You Prepared for the End of Fake Money?
July 20, 2018 | Author MN Gordon
> Follow the Fake Money
“The failings of today’s fake money generally stem from the unsatisfactory reality that it is birthed from debt. Money is borrowed into existence seemingly without limits.”
“On top of that, floating exchange rates, where the relationships between currencies are ever changing, and money is continually eroded by monetary inflation, make it wanting as a common measure of value, a standard of value, and a store of value.”
“Take the dollar, for instance. Over the last 100-years, it has lost over 95-percent of its value. Yet, even with this poor performance, the dollar has one of the better track records going. ”
July 19, 2018 | Buy Bitcoin, Bye, Bye Gold? Gerald Celente
KINGSTON, NY, 19 JULY 2018—Two trend lines are approaching critical junctures and moving in opposite directions. The price of the safe-haven asset gold is trending down and the value of cryptocurrencies, which are striving for legitimacy, are moving higher.
Gold fell to $1,210 an ounce today, and is down over 10 percent from its January watermark of $1,362.90.
While the mainstream business media had anticipated gold would rise as Tariff and Trade War fears escalated, our position maintained that they would have marginal effect on global economies and markets, and, in fact, if they were a serious threat, gold, indeed would have risen.
As we have long forecast, the price of gold would decline as U.S. interest rates rise. Higher interest rates boost the dollar, push up bond yields, make gold a less attractive investment since it does not bear interest… and since gold is dollar denominated, it makes it more expensive for holders of declining currencies.
For example, India, a major purchaser of gold, registered its sixth month of gold import declines as the value of its rupee, which is down 7 percent year-to-date against the dollar, continues to weaken.
Besides factors such as a sharply declining dollar, currency wars, rapidly rising inflation, and equity market meltdowns which would spike gold prices, so too will wild card events such as escalating war tensions in the Middle East.
BITCOIN, OTHER CRYPTOS ON THE MOVE
In making our 2018 “Cryptomania Cash-In” Top Trend forecast, we anticipated substantial volatility as governments increasingly imposed bans, regulations and controls on trading crypto assets, and set new limits on initial coin offerings (ICOs).
Those factors, as well an unexpected number of hacks into exchanges that dampened investor confidence, drove a 55-percent drop in combined market cap valuation of the top 50 largest cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2018.
But while diving crypto values were grabbing the headlines, we were tracking a growing number of major banks, financial firms, hedge funds and investment groups that we forecast would increasingly embrace and institutionalize cryptocurrencies.
For example, earlier this week, Bitcoin jumped 4 percent to $6,612, after it was reported global investment firm BlackRock was forming a “working group” to explore how to capitalize on the cryptocurrency trend. And now Bitcoin is at around $7,470.
This latest development further confirms our “Crypto” Top Trend of 2018 forecast that when establishment firms such as Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Wells Fargo, etc., broaden and increase their investments and interests in cryptocurrencies, it would fuel long term growth and assure legitimacy in the mainstream global financial community.
TREND FORECAST: We had long forecast that once gold dropped below $1,285 per ounce, the downside risk would be approximately $1,200. And for the past five years, we had noted that gold must break above $1,450 per ounce, which it has not, to move toward the $2,000 range.
On the crypto front, we maintain our forecast that Bitcoin must move into the high $11,000 per coin range to accelerate upward growth, which will in turn drive other leading digital currencies higher.
https://www.howestreet.com/2018/07/19/buy-bitcoin-bye-bye-gold/
Thanks for the weekend show guys as always.
Very much appreciate your efforts.
Cheers.
I’ve always appreciated Mike Larson’s analyses. He’s a sharp dude.
Jordan is sounding like spanky.
CRYPTOS SILVER PLATINUM GOLD Cryptocurrency Predictions & Updates: Sharon Michelle- 7.12.18
Hello everyone! In this update, Sharon shares segments with you from her new channeling session that was conducted on July 12, 2018.
HIVE Blockchain Releases Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Financial Results and Provides Operational Update
@newswire on July 18, 2018
– Generated revenues of $13,081,395, with a gross mining margin of $10,139,931, from mining of digital currencies;
– Mined over 17,000 newly minted Ethereum and 54,000 Ethereum Classic coins during the year ended March 31, 2018, including fourth quarter production of 9,800 Ethereum and 34,000 Ethereum Classic coins representing an increase of 136% and 170%, respectively over third quarter production;
– Raised gross proceeds of $160 million (C$203 million) of growth capital during the year to finance rapid expansion and future growth opportunities and investments;
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/hive-blockchain-releases-fourth-quarter-and-full-year
G-20 Communique Removes Pledge To Refrain From Competitive Devaluation
07/22/2018
“If Europe believes in free trade, we’re ready to sign a free trade agreement,” Mnuchin said, adding that such a deal would require the elimination of tariffs, non-tariff barriers and subsidies. “It has to be all three issues.”
Europe, however, did not, and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the European Union would not consider launching trade talks with the United States unless Trump first withdraws the steel and aluminum tariffs and stands down on a car tariff threat.
Repeating a phrase uttered previously by Macron, Le Maire told reporters on the G-20 sidelines that “we refuse to negotiate with a gun to our head.”
And while it is too soon to call for a collapse of the existing global order, the sense that increasingly more nations are taking their fate – both fiscal and monetary – in their own hands with little regard for how it will impact the rest, will be reinforced by today’s G-20 communique, whether the US ends up signing it or not.”
“Trump finding a foe in his own Fed head, Jerome Powell, would be dreadful for Asian economies, companies and investors. The spectre of the most powerful leader brawling with the world’s top monetary authority throws yet another imponderable at a region on the ropes.”
“That puts Powell in an impossible situation. Hiking interest rates at the forthcoming policy meeting from July 31 to August 1 could have Trump slamming the Fed on Twitter. Throttling back could increase overheating risks. Either outcome risks denting the dollar’s credibility and driving up US bond yields.”
Thanks for the article. It’s going to be an interesting second half of the year!
Impact Silver (ISVLF) just broke down below the bottom rail of the declining wedge I have been watching. Also, the parabolic trend on the weekly just flipped to negative.
It’s been a tough market for the Silver miners lately, and I’m interested to see if the selling gets exhausted soon, or if the metals and miners really are setting up a for a larger bull move.
My money is still on a rally in Aug & Sept, and a resumption of the larger bull trend that kicked off in Jan 2016 in the miners to reach new highs later this year or in 2019. It is admittedly harder to have this perception when things seem so bleak at present, but this too shall pass….
Ever Upward!
Thanks for the pep talk Ex. Valuations in these miners are crazy low, but if silver breaks down they will not have a choice to go lower. Looking more and more like the lows might be tested, but we’ll wait to see what August brings. My portfolio was up last Friday and today which is encouraging. UUUU is having quite a run which helps. Novo Resources also showed a little life also. I still feel a turnaround is close at hand overall. I am surprised the USD has been as resilient as it has. Thanks for your thoughts on the Royalty Cos. I certainly appreciate your knowledge and experience in the space.
Thanks for show.
http://www.mining.com/equinox-sells-koricancha-mill-peru-inca-gold-12-4-million-deal/