Jordan Roy-Byrne - Techncial Commentary – Wed 8 Aug, 2018

The Relationship between Gold and Gold Stocks

With GDX breaking down over Jordan Roy-Byrne and I discuss the relationship between the actual gold price and gold stocks. While these two are related the price moves can be very different at times. Jordan also shares some of the levels he is watching for both.

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Jordan Roy-ByrneCory Fleck
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  1. On August 8, 2018 at 10:38 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Bottom just hit on the HUI…at 160……Gann was looking for that number

  2. On August 8, 2018 at 10:45 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    This interview makes me go Hmmmmm. Are we sure that Jordan and Spanky aren’t one and the same? Not a pleasure to listen to…………….Oh well, maybe we’ll do better in the next life.

    • On August 8, 2018 at 10:48 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Ha,Ha…….good one……..

      • On August 8, 2018 at 4:56 pm,
        Ebolan says:

        Is that a recent picture of Jordan?

        Looks like he’s in high school.

    • On August 8, 2018 at 2:22 pm,
      b says:

      They been close for awhile, now Doc sounds like he’s getting concerned, and when he gets concerned its down we go.
      At least thats been the way in the past.

  3. On August 8, 2018 at 10:52 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Silver ………what a number……$15.43……..long term this is a buy……jmo
    Crypos……taking a bath today……..Bitconn…..down $400 plus..

  4. On August 8, 2018 at 11:27 am,
    Matthew says:

    The miners are ready for at least a bounce:

    • On August 8, 2018 at 11:33 am,
      Silverdollar says:

      No argument with your conclusion. Seems maybe they were out late celebrating and simply haven’t woken up……………or are they in a permanent coma???

      • On August 8, 2018 at 11:37 am,
        Matthew says:

        Mark my words, there is nothing permanent about the current/recent action.

        • On August 8, 2018 at 1:59 pm,
          b says:

          All things change.
          Including PMs.

          Its just time, I simply want the change to occur before I die or armaggedon happens.
          I die first is 10-1 against, armageddon is about 2-1.
          I die in armageddon, even odds.

          • On August 8, 2018 at 3:23 pm,
            Silverdollar says:

            +1 My sentiments exactly except odds on I die first are 3-1.

  5. On August 8, 2018 at 11:29 am,
    Matthew says:

    Gold is ready for at least a bounce:

  6. On August 8, 2018 at 11:36 am,
    Matthew says:

    Silver looks better than gold:

  7. On August 8, 2018 at 12:24 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The Canadian dollar is having a good day…

    • On August 8, 2018 at 12:26 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The week is shaping-up as well but there’s some work to do…

  8. On August 8, 2018 at 12:54 pm,
    Charles says:

    Nice Charts Matthew. Thanks for the overview. The Chaikin Money Flow on the silver chart still indicates increasing pressure. It seemed to lead the turnaround last December. It would be nice to see some of the selling pressure dissipate, but I suppose it could happen simultaneous with a price reversal given how long this correction has taken.

    • On August 8, 2018 at 8:03 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      People have been going on and on for the last 6 weeks about the low sentiment readings, oversold chart indicators, and how the moving averages have been sloping down with momentum. This is all true, and the market trend has been down, so these things go on longer than most expect, but eventually the sellers will be exhausted.

      Again, there is no doubt it has been a bearish summer, but if there is a period which follows the Summer Doldrums that is seasonally strong (like mid Aug through September typically is), then it seems like we are entering the window in a week or two for a 6 week stronger period in the metals, where there are good odds for a tradable rally.

      Will the relief finally come? Well, it may be a rather muted rally this year, due to the extreme bearishness, but I’m prepared to start adding to about a dozen positions in mining producers, developers, and explorers once we see the final capitulation move down in metals over the next week or two.

      Out of this dive is where the bounce will come, where shorts finally start to cover and the rally upward begins to build some momentum. How much juice will it have? That will likely depend in some part to the global currency wars of the dollar, euro, yen, yuan, etc….. but it will start when the shorts cash out and start to cover, and we are getting very close to that now.

      Until then, tread with caution….. and when the worm turns then snap up the mining stocks like a crocodile…..

  9. On August 8, 2018 at 9:52 pm,
    Brad says:

    Has anyone noticed that price on the $USD chart keeps hitting up against the 200 week MA (which looks like it could start rolling over) and cannot break through it. Price of gold just crossed below the 200 week MA for the first time in a year and most are talking like it is the end of the world. So much emotion in this market. Does not look like the current down move has much life left. I am sure many will be “shocked” if/when the USD does not continue up to 97. Whatever.

    • On August 9, 2018 at 12:06 am,
      Matthew says:

      Good points, Brad; I agree. The dollar is not as strong as most think and has been failing at the 200 week MA since May. In addition, the inability to get above a mid-60s RSI is typical bear market behavior (just as a sub-35 reading is uncommon during a bull market).

      • On August 9, 2018 at 5:09 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Agreed on the delusion some seem to have that US dollar is going back up above 98 into the 100’s again. (more importantly what in the world would the stimulus be to take the greenback so much higher, when the country is drowning in debt, and creating more every minute, while much of the world is starting to diversify away from the petrodollar and US dollar in trade.

        >> Some here may remember David Vincent (aka Spock) coming on the KER and sharing these US Dollar charts.

        What do people think will happen to hard assets and commodities when this longer term dollar weakness plays out?×451.png

        • On August 10, 2018 at 9:16 am,
          TommyTrader says:

          Spock has no clue. Thats not TA, thats total vodoo. The dollar has broken out and is going much higher.

          • On August 10, 2018 at 1:11 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Sometimes the USDX goes up because the dollar is strong and sometimes it goes up because the euro is weak. As it pertains to gold, there IS a difference.

  10. On August 9, 2018 at 5:18 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Cryptocurrencies overall are looking weak lately, and like they may break to new near-term lows….

    • On August 9, 2018 at 6:07 am,
      Charles says:

      Dying a slow death. A lot of pretenders in this space. HVBTF weekly chart looks horrible and looks like it could bleed south for a long time.

  11. On August 9, 2018 at 5:22 am,
    Charles says:

    I agree the dollar seems contained, but I don’t see anything in Matthew’s chart that would indicate the dollar is prepared to drop. I have been expecting the dollar to get up to 96 and the chart explains why it hasn’t been able to get up there. It looks like it could closer to year end right before the 200-week would cross over the last blue fork support in Matthew’s chart. My question is, do we get a short term drop in the dollar that coincides with Gold’s seasonal strength? Two other scenarios I could see play out is the dollar continues sideways while gold rally’s seasonally due to China/India seasonal consumer demand. However, that demand might be dampened this year due to the trade war. Worst case scenario would be the dollar continues sideways and gold does not bounce, but trade sideways with the dollar until year end. I am hoping that doesn’t happen, but it seems possible to me.

  12. On August 9, 2018 at 5:47 am,
    Charles says:

    Here is a gold bounce scenario I found over at Gold Tent that seem pretty plausible: