Rick Ackerman’s Technical Forecasts – Wed 15 Aug, 2018
Updated Technical Levels For Gold, GDX, and US Markets
With g0ld slicing through a key technical level today Rick Ackerman has some lower targets and comments for the PM markets. We also look at GDX which is also getting hit very hard today. As for the US markets, Rick is still expecting a much more severe sell off than the one day move we are seeing today.
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CFS says:
The parent company of Corona beer and other alcoholic drinks is expanding its partnership with a Canadian pot producer, betting on the continued growth in the medical and recreational cannabis markets.
Constellation Brands Inc. said Wednesday it’s buying 104.5 million shares worth $4 billion in Canopy Growth Corp., boosting its stake in the company to 38 percent after its existing warrants are exercised.
The companies said the investment is the largest one to date in the cannabis sector. Constellation originally invested in Canopy last October.
Constellation will also get nearly 140 million new warrants it could exercise over the next three years. If it does so, Constellation will own a majority stake in the Smiths Falls, Ontario-based company.
“Constellation’s investment in Canopy is a large bet at a very rich price, which can only be justified if the company proves that it can benefit from the changing environment for cannabis in Canada and beyond,” said Linda Montag, senior vice president at Moody’s.
Canopy plans to use the investment to build or acquire assets worldwide in the markets that allow medical marijuana.
OOTB Jerry says:
Today should wash out some more longs……….JMO
OOTB Jerry says:
Silver and Platinum……..hammered today…….I need another vacation……
Charles says:
Sounds like patience is a real virtue in this market. Just watching the carnage at this point
Excelsior says:
Wow – I left the house earlier in the morning and came back to the carnage and the Sea of Red after the close. It burns!
https://www.fusiontrained.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Will-Ferrell-sunburn.jpg+
Well, it looks like we just got the ~capitulation event in the metals I was hoping to see this week. Sentiment wash activate!
The next few days should complete an ugly weekly candle, and it will be interesting to see if it marks a key intermediate low in the weeks that follow.
Excelsior says:
Sorry, that + sign on the link made it not work.
Here’s how bad today’s sea of red burnt 😉
https://www.fusiontrained.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Will-Ferrell-sunburn.jpg
Charles says:
Good visual! Thanks!
OOTB Jerry says:
Good take from Rubino
https://usawatchdog.com/scarier-more-dangerous-market-crisis-blowing-up-now-john-rubino/
b says:
So, were dooomed, just as Jordan and spanky said.
Course Bird and a few others said we were doomed long ago now, and dent has always said gold was gonna tank.
Well its gotta turn around any moment now, its aug 15.
OOTB Jerry says:
Not doomed, ………Just another opportunity ,………buy low …..wait and sell high…..
Btw……Tweety was Wrong…….Not going to reach $968…… 🙂
OOTB Jerry says:
I was going to say a lot more , but, ……we did say , we were not going to bring up the subject again……….. 🙂
OOTB Jerry says:
BTW…….I did like Tweety, but he sure has his ways,…. but, that goes for all of us….
b says:
He made me laff more than anyone on this blog.
Excelsior says:
It’s an investing blog, not a comedy show.
He specialized in insulting the vast majority of the posters, commentators, and contributors on here, endlessly called people names, said terrible things about people’s religious views, and often lied and put words in peoples mouth. Yeah…. what a hero….
Good riddance!
b says:
Touch a nerve par chance?
Excelsior says:
I just think it’s ridiculous to hero worship such a negative guy that did nothing but disrupt the blog, chase off good people & guest speakers with his insults, and then act like his completely wrong calls offered any value.
The fact that he made you laugh is not a consolation prize.
Matthew says:
Ex, you can’t reason with a brick and you should know by now that “b” is for brick. The guy will never grasp the fact that those guys’ opinions weren’t the problem.
b says:
Mathew,
your a dipshit, maybe stick to charts.
Matthew says:
Ah, the truth hurts.
If you rise to dipshit intelligence someday, you might know the difference between “your” and you’re. Good luck, but I do not believe you have what it takes.
b says:
Ur still a dipshit.
stick to charts.
Matthew says:
Little b, you’re pissed because 65 years is a long time to put up with your set of mental deficiencies. Go smoke a joint; I know you’re the kind of winner that loves such intelligence-boosting activities.
Excelsior says:
A capitulation event this week is a far cry from being proof that we’re doomed.
Gold is only down a few percentage points after all. Gimme a break.
Jordan was on record as saying he expected a bounce soon up to $1260 resistance, as things have been oversold for a while.
He is correct that we are due for a bounce soon, and what has been needed is a capitulation event. You are correct that we are at mid-August so after this ugly weekly candle is done, we are entering the window where a bounce is most likely.
Also just because there has been a sell off now (after a run up of $200-$300 in Gold since Dec 2015) doesn’t have anything to do with Birdy or any call he made. He was expecting $965 back in late 2015 and early 2016 and was wrongo in the congo.
Harry Dent is the king of doom porn, and was expecting $600 Gold, since late 2015 and could not have been more incorrect.
Gold is at $1173, so let’d deal in the real here…. These guys megaphone patterns, ichimoku clouds, and outlandish bottom calls are just as embarrassing as the gold bugs that have been calling for imminent $5000-$10000 gold the last few years.
For everyone else with 2 brain cells to rub together knows those extremely polarized views are poppycock. Gold has been breaking down, and this accelerated selloff is exactly what one sees near bottoms. After this very fugly weekly chart is put in, it will be interesting to see if things level off and bounce over the next few weeks.
Excelsior says:
The other thing we see time after time near bottoms are outlandish articles like these:
_______________________________________________
Here’s Why Gold Might Die Out As An Investment
Aug 15, 2018
“What’s the problem? He points to the disruption-minded tech sector and suggests that post-boomer generations might not take as much of a shine to the metal.”
“Isn’t it possible faith in gold could potentially die out with the older generations?” asks Carlson, who is Ritholtz Wealth Management’s director of institutional asset management. “Doesn’t technology present a massive risk to gold’s standing as a store of value going forward?”
“The idea could be that Silicon Valley is providing other vehicles for hoarders.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-gold-might-die-out-as-an-investment-2018-08-15
Excelsior says:
— Luke Gromen
“Because the 4-6 billion people in EM’s currently seeing gold go to the moon in local terms are going to stop buying physical gold?”
Excelsior says:
“Because the 4-6 billion people in EM’s currently seeing gold go to the moon in local terms are going to stop buying physical gold?”
— Luke Gromen
https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1029787177385906176
Dick Tracy says:
Wasn’t it Rick Rule who stated the bottom in a market has been reached when you get a giant “Puke Off”. DT
Excelsior says:
Yeah agreed. “Puke Off” = Capitulation.
CFS says:
https://goldsilver.com/blog/big-bank-roundup-2018-gold-price-forecasts-and-predictions/
CFS says:
Mcalvany talking Turkey: (download)
https://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/wp-content/uploads/ica2018-0815.mp3
CFS says:
http://dailycaller.com/2018/08/14/net-neutrality-us-ranking/
CFS says:
https://youtu.be/WsCzqOmNxaw?t=32
Ira’s metals
CFS says:
Interesting! My ISP in California is limiting my access to some right-wing websites.
At first I just thought they were down or something, but I can access them just fine using my Ipad.
Censorship has arrived in the loony left coast!
OOTB Jerry says:
For get about um………..
OOTB Jerry says:
You better get out of there before it is tooooooo late…………
OOTB Jerry says:
You can buy all the wine you want on line………. 🙂
BTW………..Indiana farmers have signs on their field…….ORGANIC CORN…….to hell with MONSANTO………………:)
OOTB Jerry says:
Indiana Farmers…….got the message……. Monsanto is SCUM
Excelsior says:
Agreed OOTB. Monsanto is Scum.
Ozibatla says:
Wow that sell-off was impressive, particularly for silver. It is now less than a dollar off its bear market low in Dec 2015. I went on record as saying late last year and again early this year, that 2018 was time for PMs to put up or shut up. That hasnt happened and in light of this most recent sell-off they wont reach and hold new highs this year.
Im just a small time investor (certainly no expert) but have lost confidence in this sector. Maybe thats the purpose of such sell-offs – to wash out weak hands and sentiment. However I wont sell at a loss, luckily because I have time and no forced pressure on my side at this stage. Instead, I will take a back seat and stop focusing on the metals constantly.
It is now evident that in my opinion, there needs to be a total change of the economic landscape for gold and silver to prosper. This likely entails some sort of panic on a global scale which will lead to further downside pain before we head higher with renewed vigour. The current environment is not favourable for gold and silver growth. That is highlighted by this current price slide as the one of the PMs biggest price determinents is the US$ and that actually declined over the todays session.
OOTB Jerry says:
SELL OFF >>>>>>AFTER HOURS………Biggest sell off after hours in YEARS…….
I am shaking in my BOOTS……….NOT………
OOTB Jerry says:
Banks must be scared sh**less……(can I say that)
Excelsior says:
Look at Silver in the East versus Silver in the West:
http://didthesystemcollapse.com/
OOTB Jerry says:
Thanks………..East up $1.06……..Jamie pocketing the rest…….West Whore Show
Charles says:
I am going to have to bookmark that site.
OOTB Jerry says:
Good reason to leave CHICAGO………….$125,000 reason……….. 🙂
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-15/125000-pension-debt-each-chicagoan-really-hook
OOTB Jerry says:
How in the world are they going to extract $125,000 from a gang banger……..on the Southside of Chicago…….NO WAY MORON>>>>>>>>
b says:
pot jumped up goodly today, 30% for canopy growth.
less boring than PMs.
b says:
Harry Dent Vs Peter Schiff – Who’s Been Right
https://youtu.be/9Z8NK-Ed30k
Excelsior says:
That’s easy. Neither has been right.
b says:
Is Peter Schiff Right – Gold Stocks Going To Explode ???
https://youtu.be/5sysoE8QrS8
Excelsior says:
— Luke Gromen
“All these people making fun of gold on my feed, still haven’t heard a single good reason why global CB’s have bought gold & sold UST’s on net over the past 5 years. Anyone?”
https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1029855771163602944
Excelsior says:
Gold Technical Update: Capitulation Event Imminent
by @Goldfinger on August 2, 2018
“It seems that all the ingredients are in place for a major low except for a capitulation event. Remember, tops are a process and bottoms are events. Gold is waiting on that event right now.”
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-technical-update-capitulation-event-imminent
Excelsior says:
It is pretty clear Gold and Silver have been putting in the capitulation even the last few trading sessions, so it is time to stay vigilant and look for the intermediate term bottom to form soon in this oversold market washout.
Excelsior says:
The keys to consider during a corrective leg, when there is a final capitulation move down are:
1) Nobody knows where it will bottom, but the bottom will come and this too shall pass.
2) The more articles and editorials that come out declaring Gold & Silver and the miners over, the closer we are to a recovery; throwing egg in their faces.
3) You can count on most herd-think investors to “cry low and buy high.” They’ll exit at the exact wrong time, instead of buying, and once things have rallied up substantially for the easiest gains, they’ll jump on when the move seems “safe” marking the next intermediate top.
Ozibatla says:
Everything you say Ex is right. Unfortunately being a contrarian means it is hard to time the exact bottom. To time the market, one needs time IN the market and therefore pain is inevitable. It is what it is. Time to bunker down for those of us who have the time.
Excelsior says:
Hi Ozibatla – Agreed that it is not a time for rash decisions, but it is a time to watch for an intermediate bottom in this corrective leg Gold has been on.
It is hard to time the market turns, but TA can assist by watching for a series of indicators lining up (pricing, patterns, indicators, candlesticks etc…), and a general observation of a good probabilistic set up.
When we see these kind of big accelerated down days after a few months of gradual declines, then it is time to bunker down, but with the realization that this is what happens before the worm turns. Watching for exhaustion of sellers, and then a tug-o-war between bears/bulls that leads to an indecision period , where the pricing gets stuck for a few days or a succeeding Doji or Hammer weekly candle after this week’s ugly candle is behind us could be a clue we’ve found bottom for a tradable rally.
Another kind of bottom is a double-bottom, so if we see a plunge, and then a small rally, followed by a second move down to the same low, and then the next rally, then that would also be a clue that a tradable rally is likely underway.
Time to be vigilant, and also time to place a contrarian position for out-sized gains if the setup looks worth the candle, and not dither and miss a good move higher when the set up is right. It now looks sooner rather than later.
Charles says:
Ex – It will be interesting to see if Maritime survives this down draft. I am guessing there days of secondary offerings are over and they will soon run out of cash to support their pilfering ways.
Excelsior says:
Yep,
Maritime blew it by not accepting the Anaconda deal, and now ANX will be able to pick them up for a song & dance, but it is sad how they have destroyed shareholder value.
Charles says:
Agreed. Don’t know if you saw the below interview over at 321gold:
https://upticknewswire.com/featured-interview-ceo-dustin-angelo-of-anaconda-mining-inc-otc-anxgf/
Pretty good endorsement of the value proposition.
Excelsior says:
No, I hadn’t seen that audio interview posted. Thank you sir!
Excelsior says:
Electric Car Growth Produces Battery Shortages, Carmakers Can’t Match Production With Demand
August 12th, 2018 – Christopher Arcus
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/12/electric-car-growth-produces-battery-shortages-carmakers-cant-match-production-with-demand/
Snowy says:
If your (General you) reason for not getting into lithium stocks was that they were too high last year, take another look. Most have been hammered down 60%-80%. Some great, near production and cashed up companies, are at extremely great values here.
Excelsior says:
Good point Snowy. I’ve been nibbling away at Nemaska, Galaxy, Lithium Americas, and Pilbara Minerals as they are back on sale.
Ozibatla says:
Agreed on the double bottom theory Ex. This is more intune with short to medium term time frames I feel, but is always a good indicator nonetheless. Also the candles are good to keep an eye on but arent as reliable I find. The cascade down after weeks of gradual declines is damaging and will further impede the bounce back up. Interesting times ahead if nothing else!
Excelsior says:
Yes, it will be interesting, but with the candles the typical ones that mark a turn are the Doji or Hammer candles. If we end up seeing one of those on a weekly then it would be a reasonable sound indicator of a turn.
Ever Upward!
Ozibatla says:
Just saw the PMs prices. Its not surprising to see a snap back rally after yesterdays plunge but golds move is so muted in comparison to the other metals: silver +2.5%, platinum +3.5%, palladium +6.5 and gold less than +.5%. Weird!
Charles says:
Anyone hear have any thoughts on Novo Resources? It held up relatively well yesterday and has been basing for an awfully long time. Its daily and weekly bollinger bands are flattening out and the price is holding above the 100 week moving average. Seems to be a few positive divergences on the daily chart. Might need some more time to tighten up the weekly bollinger bands so I am just watching for now, but it is tempting.