Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 6 Sep, 2018

Unprecedented CoT Reports – Do Not jump To Any Conclusions Yet

Craig Hemke, Founder of joins me to address the recent CoT reports that show Commercial traders in a net long position for silver for the first time ever. A lot of the bulls are drawing assumptions on where price should go because of these positions but as Craig points out we have never been in this situation before. Things could get more extreme from here considering how stretched they have gotten in the past on the other side. We also touch on the political environment in the US and the upcoming mid-term election.

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Craig HemkeCory Fleck
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  1. On September 6, 2018 at 3:48 pm,
    b says:

    very active board today.
    thx for putting the show together cory.

  2. On September 6, 2018 at 4:32 pm,
    Chris says:

    When Silver was at 33 OZ This “expert” said to BUY BUY BUY hand over fist…….how did that work of for you guys? So why are we listening to this wacko prediction? Total loser!

  3. On September 6, 2018 at 5:06 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    About 2 years back when Pretium was moving from development into production, it was discussed that the resource estimate looked really half-baked like the raisin-bread deposit they were promoting to the marketplace.

    A number of Pretium fans got bent out of shape about those comments, but as time has gone on and they moved into production, their results have not measured up to the promotion and now more and more analysts are waking up to just how flawed the resource estimate was with grade smearing, and extrapolating out high grade veins in the bulk sample to be indicative of the whole resource.

    Here is a new short piece that is clearly opinionated on the short side, but many of the critiques they have of Pretium are on target, and they are the exact same problems that Rubi-CON had.

    Something to consider for all investors about how seriously to take some of these resource estimates, as the truth will out once the production begins.


    (PVG) Pretium Resources – digging up dirt
    Viceroy Research

    “Distorted grades, involvement of SEC sanctioned entities, and high turnover of mineral consultants – Pretium flies many red flags. (PVG:TSX / PVG:NYSE)”

    • On September 6, 2018 at 5:13 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      From the Viceroy Research piece above on Pretium Resources:

      “Strathcona Mineral Services Limited (Strathcona), the mining consultancy that famously declared Bre-X to be a fraud, resigned from Pretium’s 2013 bulk sample program later stating, “…they will not have a mine producing 425,000 oz. a year for the next 20 years, as they have been advertising so far”. The entire Pretium investment thesis rests on the validity of the 2013 bulk sample program.”

      “The overwhelming majority of our research indicates Pretium manipulated the results of its bulk sample program through an overreliance on samples taken from the Cleopatra vein, thereby artificially inflating Pretium’s grades and reserve projections for the Brucejack Mine.”

      “The manipulated bulk sampling test performed by Strategic Minerals was used by the courts in Wong v. Pretium Resources, 2017 as the basis of their decision that the Strathcona analysis was incorrect. This did not exempt the company from withholding Strathcona’s preliminary analysis from investors.”

      “Government documents indicate Pretium is moving approximately double the tonnage from the underground mine than disclosed to investors. This suggests reported grades and reserves are significantly inflated, a much greater amount of waste is being dumped into local lakes, and more explosives are being utilized. Pretium’s operational plan has experienced dramatic changes in a short amount of time, leading us to believe that management is scrambling to find consistent, high-grade ore to maintain the charade that its debt and equity are viable.”

      • On September 6, 2018 at 5:15 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        It’s no wonder most investors steer clear of the mining industry.

    • On September 6, 2018 at 5:24 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I have never been tempted to own PVG but here it is (at support):

      • On September 6, 2018 at 5:34 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        It is a widely followed stock trading on the big boards, so it may bounce at support.

        However, over the next 1-3 years it may have be strangled by debt challenges, and it irks me to see companies fabricating their results to dupe a bunch of investors that based their decisions to invest off the stellar bulk sampling charade.

        Yes, they have gold, but they also are having to mine much more ore to get to production numbers, which means more waste, and less revenues than projected. They also have a mountain of debt that is supposed to be paid off using the strategy in their economic reports, but what they promoted to the marketplace, and the reality now that they are mining, are two very different things.

        I can think of dozens of “Gold or Silver stocks I’d rather own with more upside potential, and that are doing good and reputable work.

  4. On September 6, 2018 at 10:00 pm,
    Bob grierson says:

    Who is this Excelsior? Has he considered writing ‘Gone With The Wind, part 2’ ?

    • On September 7, 2018 at 12:23 pm,
      Excelsior says:


  5. On September 7, 2018 at 7:04 am,
    Robert Moriarty says:

    Bob G:

    I think he’s the guy who is competing with Mathew to see how much money he can help readers make for free. It’s a tossup as to who is better, Ex or Matt but they have put more money into more people’s pockets on this board than the next 20 combined.

    We keep having to listen to the blather from the Turd who likes to make stuff up when Matt and Ex just keep pumping out good advice for free. I personally feel I owe them both a giant thanks for all they do.

    Ex: Write away.

    • On September 7, 2018 at 7:53 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      +1 and 20…………

      • On September 7, 2018 at 7:55 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        No comment concerning the Turd……….I kind of like him……as I do you….. 🙂

    • On September 7, 2018 at 12:22 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks for the kind words Bob M. as it is appreciated.

      We appreciate all the ideas and information you share with us as well, and hopefully by sharing good ideas it makes us all a bit more prosperous.

    • On September 7, 2018 at 2:29 pm,
      Tad says:

      Ain’t that the truth Bob.
      Matt & Ex make this place (after Big Al & Cory….. Obviously).
      I’ve had a lot of free advice/opinion form them.
      I do, however, own a bit of Pretium.
      Fingers crossed 🙂

      • On September 7, 2018 at 10:03 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Tad, if you haven’t seen it already, Bill Fleckenstein has some interesting thoughts about Pretium.

        The stock hasn’t tempted me but I do not agree at all with those who think it’s a fraud.

        • On September 8, 2018 at 2:33 am,
          Excelsior says:

          For clarity, I don’t think it’ a fraud, but rather that they marketed a resource estimate around that has faulty assumptions, and they puffed up the estimates and economics off bulk samples that were turned down by one company, and the second company has been questioned by many geologist and industry professionals.

          Again, they have a large resource, and have gold, but they also have a mountain of debt, and were not honest about how it is going to get paid off if their grade is half of what they promised.

      • On September 8, 2018 at 2:31 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks for the kind words Tad.

    • On September 10, 2018 at 8:30 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      +1 too (;-D

  6. On September 7, 2018 at 11:02 am,
    Robert Moriarty says:


    Fair enough but the Turd lied about me and a bunch of other writers and it pissed me off. I’ve never said it and I have never heard any of the others named say it. And the Turd isn’t honest enough to admit he made it up because lots of people don’t agree with his manipulation/conspiracy nonsense.

    Futures market manipulation and spoofing??
    I thought Weiner/Christian/Armstrong/Moriarty/Norcini/Casey/Gilbert all assured us the markets were sacrosanct, free and fair!

    • On September 7, 2018 at 12:15 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Bob………I think the Turd, owes you an apology……..JMO
      And I can see where that might piss you off.

    • On September 7, 2018 at 12:23 pm,
      Matthew says:

      There is no shortage of semiconscious idiots who make a habit of going off half cocked. It’s not that all of these dolts intend to be dishonest; many just don’t comprehend what others are saying but imagine that they do. The smarter ones will tighten up their game a little once called out.

  7. On September 7, 2018 at 11:04 am,
    Robert Moriarty says:


    You want fair and free markets, move to Zimbabwe. That’s as close as you can get to sacrosanct, free and fair markets. All the rest are manipulated.

    • On September 7, 2018 at 12:18 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Bob……..never going to be fair and free markets…especially anything the govt touches ….I have learned that the hard way.. 🙂