Exclusive Insights on the Gold Market – Fri 7 Sep, 2018

Did Gold Put In A Bottom In August?

Ned Schmidt, Editor of the Value View Gold Report shares why he thinks gold has put in a bottom last month. With US stocks still garnering a lot of attention Ned thinks investors will turn away from the risk on equities very soon.

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Comments:
  1. On September 7, 2018 at 6:31 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Excellon Files Platosa Technical Report

    by @newswire on September 7, 2018

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/excellon-files-platosa-technical-report

  2. On September 7, 2018 at 6:33 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Did Gold put in a bottom in August?

    It sure looks that way, and we discussed all year long that Gold typically rallies from late July or mid-August into the more bullish month of September, so I’m not sure why Gold bottoming in August would surprise anyone. There are likely still some legs for Gold to travel higher the balance of September for a continuation of the tradable rally from mid August through this month for those that had the gumption to position a few weeks back.

    • On September 7, 2018 at 8:25 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Sure, the sentiment has been bad in the resource sector the last few months, but those are the times where one looks to deploy some dry powder in the companies they have the most conviction in as longer term winners.

      Even though the initial leg up in the bull in 2016 was very intense, most investors were not in the market early enough and getting positioned before that thrust up, so they didn’t reap the benefit, or they got in but later in the year and may have had some gains, but only if they sold or trimmed. There will be another leg higher that takes out the 2016 high, and there have been a number of tradable rallies since August of 2016 to capitalize on, but longer term holders, saw a tough 2 year sideways to down consolidation, and it has zapped the sector of enthusiasm and momentum, but is exactly the type of environment to accumulate in.

      One dynamic this time around was that resource investors watched epic runs in the Pot Stocks and Cryptos the last few years while they were in vehicles that didn’t perform as well. Then we saw the general markets relentless climb higher, which had many people kicking themselves for ever wading into the shark infested waters of resource companies.

      When Gold/Silver stocks surged in 2016, or Lithium/Cobalt companies surged in 2016-2017, it reminded a few of what things will be like when the sector really takes off, and the discussions shifted to how silly the over-valuations had become. When Uranium stocks make their move, and when Gold/Silver make the next leg higher, real wealth will be created in a short time period.

    • On September 7, 2018 at 9:48 am,
      b says:

      Tradeable, if you say so, I think its been pathetic.

      Long term, years, gold looks like it will be re introduced to the system.
      Iranian landlords are now asking for rent in gold, according to zerohedge?

      With the americans/Israelis crushing so many currencies around the world ya gotta figure they are going to find an alternative, just my guess but it does sorta look like some people still feel gold has a value.

      Maybe it wont take years, it took awhile to move from the pound to the dollar tho, I would expect the same thing this time.

      • On September 7, 2018 at 10:14 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I read yesterday………there were 3800 fiat currencies , that no longer exist…., at some point in time ….ALL FIATS FAIL…….LAST MAN STANDING >>>>GOLD……

  3. On September 7, 2018 at 8:32 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Why I Bought Gold Miners Today

    by @Goldfinger on September 7, 2018

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/why-i-bought-gold-miners-today

    • On September 7, 2018 at 9:23 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      The last chart says it all………….SOLD OUT……….

    • On September 7, 2018 at 10:38 am,
      Matthew says:

      Like I said the other day, selling now is like buying near the 2016 top — you might win, but not for long and probably not much.
      Those who can’t see the bullish potential here should find something else to occupy themselves with.

      • On September 7, 2018 at 5:35 pm,
        Chartster says:

        That’s funny, Matthew. In 2016 we were in full blown bull market according to you. Now it was a ” top “.
        So uh, is this the bottom?

        ( you don’t need to answer, as I already know ) it’s not

        • On September 7, 2018 at 9:35 pm,
          Matthew says:

          But you are confused so I clearly do need to answer. We are in a bull market and 2016 did contain a top. That’s A top not THE top.
          We are now at A bottom but THE bottom happened almost three years ago.
          Now, are you sure you’re a chartster?

          • On September 8, 2018 at 9:11 am,
            Chartster says:

            When those gaps ..way down there on GLD get filled, I’ll get bullish.
            1050 here we come. It will be a V shape recovery.

          • On September 8, 2018 at 10:08 am,
            Matthew says:

            Ok… now back to the subject you’re confused about. You should know by now that “tops” of some degree or another happen all the time — whether we’re in a bull market or not.

            There is better evidence to support that the sector is correcting within a bull market than extending the bear market.

          • On September 8, 2018 at 3:41 pm,
            Chartster says:

            I’m not confused. I’m saying when gold hits 1050, it was never a bull market. It was a bear market rally.
            Been saying that the whole time…

          • On September 8, 2018 at 5:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            You said: “In 2016 we were in full blown bull market according to you. Now it was a ” top “.”
            That shows confusion.
            As for the gold/silver miners not being in a bull market, the evidence is against you.

    • On September 7, 2018 at 11:00 am,
      Charles says:

      Nice chart Ex. Thanks for sharing. I’ve sowed a few seeds recently. Looking forward to a bounce or turn. I have to believe some have already bottomed.

      • On September 7, 2018 at 12:43 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Hi Charles – Glad to share ideas, and yes, it seems like a few miners may have already started to bounce, and we’ll see if the trend continues next week.

        Gold touched $1167 and bounced in Mid-August, and has risen into September, but I was anticiapating a bit more juice to this bounce before it rolls over, so I’ve added to a few for a nice swing trade, and will see how things develop the next 2 weeks.

        May your trading be profitable.

  4. On September 7, 2018 at 9:29 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Real Estate gone bad………CookEd in the County of Cook…..add an R..and you really have the answer…CROOKED POLITICIANS
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-06/botched-cook-county-property-tax-relief-backfires-working-class-minorities

    • On September 7, 2018 at 9:30 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      The Tribune profiled one business owner, Tony Sanchez, who owns a paving company. “The Markham property he’s owned for decades has an assessed value of about $511,000. This year, his tax bill topped $86,000 — more than three times as much as he would be paying for a Chicago business property worth the same amount.”

      The anointed champions of Illinois’ working class and minorities are anything but.

      • On September 7, 2018 at 9:56 am,
        Ebolan says:

        Mr. Jerry,

        The idea that you own real estate is a total joke. You are only renting it from the gooberment.

        • On September 7, 2018 at 10:06 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Ditto Ebo…………

  5. On September 7, 2018 at 10:05 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    The idiot with the paving business, ……better be getting some govt. contracts, no bid, and jacking the price up….just to cover the $86,000 tax bill…..

    Govt….of the future……real estate taxes , on the Mcmanions…..is going to eat the simple minded boomer alive….I see it coming.

  6. On September 7, 2018 at 3:57 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Guys like Ex, try to pretend that the junior resource market for gold and silver explorers and producers is not that bad. The truth is it sucks big time and maybe he can make money in this market but it will not turn around until The Moms and Pops are included. Right now even Eric Sprott is saying to himself when will I see the light. This could be very close to a major recession, or depression. DT

    • On September 7, 2018 at 4:06 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      At least during the boom in 1929 when stocks were hitting elevated highs, they were tangible stocks like USS Steel, now we have the phony economy. Brace yourself for a very uncertain future. DT

      • On September 7, 2018 at 4:12 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        some good thoughts there………jmo

    • On September 8, 2018 at 1:55 am,
      Excelsior says:

      DT – I’m not pretending about anything and am calling them like I see them, but thanks for the back-handed swipe amigo.

      Listen, I was pretty clear up above that sentiment has been rough & bad the last few months in the PM sector, and I never said things were awesome or anything of the case, but it isn’t as bad as many of the crybaby whiners like to make it out to be.

      Try to keep things in perspective and look at the larger picture, instead of being the typical victim of recency bias. Gold hasn’t made a new low in over 3 years, but did add $200-$300 bucks over the last 2 1/2 years off that bottom. Is that something to cry in your soup over, or was that an uptrend?

      > When high torque Silver miners rocketed up 300%-1000% from Jan 2016 – August 2016 didn’t that kick the holy snot out of any returns anyone had made investing in the general equities for decades?

      > When the Q1 run of 2017 kicked off in late 2016 and into Jan/Feb of 2017 and many stocks doubled, isn’t that way the hell better than making 10-20% in the stock market?

      > When the miners surged from Dec of 2017 into Jan, Feb, March, and April was it bad when many went up 50-150%? Can you not see how it is possible to make money with returns like those, even considering the losses during rough times?

      > There have been 3 different rallies in the Uranium miners since 2016 where the key players double or tripled on macro news. Was those terrible trades?

      > When Lithium and Cobalt stocks surged 300-1000%+ from 2016 into 2017 was that tough times?

      >>>> Here’s the reality. Most investors were asleep at the wheel and were not doing the homework so they could be positioned in them BEFORE it was obvious. Most investors are nervous nellies and only like positioning after the easy gains have been made, and feel great getting positioned in companies once they have doubled or tripled because then the trend is safe. Wrong.

      Most investors I listen to ranting and whining about their losses have no discipline, don’t understand technical analysis, don’t understand how to evaluate the fundamentals of companies, and even when everything lines up, they don’t have the gonads to act on their conviction. Most sit on the sidelines and watch as spectators — just like they do in everything in their life. They’d rather be a dipshit dressed up in sport jerseys and rooting for a team they’ll never play for, then get on the field and develop the skills to play themselves. Investing is no different – most cheer rallies from the sidelines, or shout boo during bad plays, but never get on the field and take action. Such is life, and that is why most people fail at doing their own investing (lack of discipline, lack of knowledge, lack of action, inability to pull the trigger and run a play).
      _______________________________________________________________________

      ** The problem is most investors couldn’t spot turns in the market or developing trends if they came up and smacked in the face. That is because they won’t spend the time to learn the industry they invest in, learn the basics on valuation, and resist learning Technical Analysis. That’s on them.

      In addition, even if investors did spot a turn or trend forming, investors still need to have the fortitude to get positioned in the tough times before it is obvious to the “Moms and Pops” investors.

      *** Look DT, if you wait for the moms and pops investors to enter a sector before you get positioned then you won’t make any money, and it reeks of being a herd-think trend followers.

      Mom and Pops investors finally decided to get onto the Cryptocurrency bandwagon at Thanksgiving 2017 and they surged up in Christmas of 2017 and then peaked in Jan 2018. Since then they crashed big time and most coins are down 60-90% since that time period. So how well did people do waiting for Moms and Pops to get on board??

      >>>>> Here’s a clue – when Moms and Pops finally do get on board on the ass-end of a trend then you sell most of what you have to them, as they are the quintessential bag holders. Capiche?
      __________________________________________________________-

      For the last 3 years many Negative Nancy investors have been howling about sub $1000 gold where it was supposed to plumb lows of $900 $600 or $500 if people listen to the antics of dingbats like Harry Dent and his fear porn ilk.

      – The reality is that the PMs bottomed in 2015, and the metals and miners rallied nicely in 2016.

      – Then there was the Q1 Run in 2017 where Gold almost broke out above the 2016 high, and the Aug/Sept rally in 2017 where investors that were paying attention to seasonal trends could have made money.

      – Then last December 2017, right on the day of the rate hike, Gold/Silver and stocks surged and many of the companies went on a 4-5 month run from Dec – April.

      Lastly, I’ve posted about the seasonally strong period in PM during August and September for years, and reminded people about it before last year’s surge, and posted about a dozen times on it this year.

      Let me ask you a question? At least on an intermediate basis, doesn’t it look like Gold just put in an intermediate low in August? Has is rallied since then? Granted it hasn’t been a lot, but the month’s just getting started. If you can’t see that then nobody can help you.

      ** QUESTION: Where you positioned before those runs?

      I was very vocal BEFORE each of those runs that they were good times to get positioned…… and they were. My posts are always to share ideas, learn from others, and do my best to assist others in a tough investing sector. If you can’t see that for years I’ve done a better than average job of spotting trends and turns before then happened, and think I am pretending, then I’ve wasted my time here.

      When Uranium prices were double-bottoming at $17-$18 in 2016 and 2017 there was nobody posting more on it than I was, and I did my best to ring the bell. The returns from investors that positioned in Uranium stocks since then have been above average if they traded them, and didn’t clutch onto them with both hands.

      Nobody posted on Battery Metals or Electric Metals more on the KER in 2015, 2016, 2017, or 2018 then I did and people scoffed at my posts about Lithium and Cobalt, but I saw the trend forming in advance, and took action, and some of those companies were 3- 10 baggers + for me. (no pretending was required).

      If investors didn’t have the balls to add to a position when it put in an intermediate bottom, and then have the gumption to trim when those stocks rallied in each of those scenarios, then that is on them, but those were way better gains then I got in my general market funds.

      Look I agree with you that it has not been easy to make money in these markets, but when did anyone ever expect investing to be easy?

      The reason I could spot some of the winners that had a great run from last Dec 2017 to April (like Teranga Gold, Superior Gold, Perseus, Impact Silver, First Majestic, Endeavour Silver, Maya Gold & Silver, Hunt Mining, Silvercrest, etc…) is because I spend about 2 hours a day pouring over press releases & charts & network with many other investors, newsletter writers, and company officers much smarter than I am to pick their brains, read their comments, listen to their perspectives.

      Yes it takes work to stay up to speed on market trends. Yes it takes specialized knowledge and and experience to start recognizing technical set ups, or understand drilling results, or to analyze the economics of a development companies PEA or PFS but ANYONE can learn those things if they spend the time and actually care about learning their craft.

      Also, I make mistakes all the time, bet on the wrong horse all the time, or make speculations on companies that destroy their asset, company, or shareholder confidence all the time. I just have enough big winners in the basket to more than bail out the losers. It doesn’t take many 300% 500% or 1000% gains in stocks to bail out a lot of bad decisions on companies that drop by 20-50%.

      I’m done ranting here, but it pissed me off that after years of posting and getting it right about trend changes in the resource and energy sector, and helping others understand where the turns were coming and why, that I get called a pretender from someone I’ve been communicating with for a long time on here.

      I’m fine keeping my ideas to myself, and wonder why I bother posting on here most of the time now anyway. I’m here to network with investors that like making money in the resource sector, and I could care less what everyone’s political or pet economic theories are. There are handful of awesome posters here that put great thoughts all the time, and share investable info very regularly. My goal was to help out others, like they have helped me, but apparently the message is falling on deaf ears.

      Wishing everyone a prosperous rest of 2018 in their investing.

      • On September 8, 2018 at 7:15 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Ex, you are a great poster, I didn’t mean to get you so riled up. This site is lucky that you share your views. I understand what is going on, the markets are a tough act to follow and you have done a good job. I always enjoy your posts like the one above. Sorry, I shouldn’t have used your name but I needed some good reading material. I hope you don’t stay upset too long. DT

        • On September 8, 2018 at 10:14 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks for writing back DT, and apologize for getting so riled up. I was tired and have since took a nap and feel a bit better. 🙂

          It is possible I misunderstood your post or what you were implying, and I’m also shouldering comments from a lot of folks here and over at ceo that repeatedly take swipes at me, while missing the content of what was being shared.

          I do my best to be genuine and real, provide the reasoning and thought process behind my positioning, and have no interest in just being some corny PM cheerleader or negating reality when things are truly in a downturn. I agree the PMs have been in a slump during the Summer Doldrums, but that is par for the course this time of year, and people lose hope or get bored with the sector every summer so it just seems like a big over-reaction from everyone lately.

          Ever Upward!

  7. On September 7, 2018 at 6:00 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Has gold bottomed??? Damn good question. Flick of the coin I recon. Im gonna lean towards no, it will break augusts low. Its just such a poor landscape for PMs at the moment. In saying that, I dont think it will test Dec 2015 lows due to the same reason. With gold being so beat up the contrarian factor could be at hand soon enough.