Weekend Show – Sat 22 Sep, 2018

Central Bank Policy, Worrisome US Market Signs, and Precious Metals Thoughts

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On this weekends show I spend the first hour chatting with Peter Boockvar and Jesse Felder. We touch on a number of topics including central bank policy, the overall rate environment around the world, and how the metals have been beat down. It was very interesting to chat with both of these very successful generalist investors and see how they have slightly differing opinions on the wide range of topics. They both arrive at similar conclusions however I think we all agree the central banks around the world have gotten us into a tough situation.

Instead of splitting up my conversations with both Peter and Jesse I have kept them in the full conversation form. I hope you all enjoy!

Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com!

Exclusive Company Interviews and Insights


Segment 1 & 2

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Segment 3 & 4

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Featuring:
Peter BoockvarJesse FelderCory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On September 22, 2018 at 5:03 am,
    Skeeta says:

    Thanks for the weekend show guys as always.
    cheers.

  2. On September 22, 2018 at 5:32 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Always appreciate the work gentlemen…..still reading just not posting as much…..riding the pots for now

  3. On September 22, 2018 at 5:34 am,
    Wolfster says:

    In case you didn’t see my reply regarding Kirkland lake and Osisko Ex…..I see Kirkland lake owning the whole Windfall lake area play. Will take out Osisko too

    • On September 22, 2018 at 8:23 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, good point Wolfster.

      I’ve seen where recently Kirkland Lake has been taking a larger position in Osisko, so maybe it will be KL versus OSK first in Urban/Barry and Windfall Lake area, and then KL will just buy OSK and own the whole enchilada.

      • On September 22, 2018 at 8:29 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Personally, I have a position in Metanor that I’m letting convert over to Bonterra shares, and am excited about their production profile now with the 3 different assets that will feed the mill. I don’t believe Bonterra will be around for more than a year though before Kirkland Lake makes a run at them.

        At first I was surprised when an Explorer Bonterra (BTR) announced they were taking over a producer Metanor (that had just cleaned up their balance sheet last year with a roll-back of shares), and just raised some cash.

        Honestly, I was expecting Metanor to buy out Bonterra or Beaufield, but didn’t see the reverse happening. Jr Mining…. you gotta love it.

        My hunch is that Eric Sprott has been a key investor with Metanor, and he is very involved with Kirkland lake. By Metanor & Bonterra now being merged, into the new and improved Bonterra, I could see him helping to bring in Kirkland Lake to acquire Bonterra next, as stated yesterday.

        There is definitely a land grab going in in the Windfall Lake area, as Osisko just bought out Beaufield, when they got “wind” of Bonterra grabbing Metanor.

        There are a few more tiny players in that area, that don’t have as good of land packages, that may also get nabbed, but ultimately I foresee a future where it is Osisko and Kirkland Lake as the 2 operators in the Urban-Barry / Windfall Lake area play.

        This whole area will likely be up under the umbrella of Kirkland lake over the next 2-3 years if they take out Osisko Mining (which their recent positions indicate may be the master plan).

        • On September 22, 2018 at 8:33 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Here is a nice Quebec Area-Play Map of $OR $MTO $BFD $BTR $GOR $URB $SEK
          #Gold #Drillplays

          (visually helps see how things are being consolidated with Metanor/Bonterra and with Osisko/Beaufield).

          http://goldrea.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/argosmap.jpg

        • On September 22, 2018 at 9:36 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          Eric Sprott leaves a large footprint like Sasquatch. He is involved now with Royal Nickel and other companies in Western Australia as well as he holds positions in Nova Scotia properties, all great stable gold mining areas. Investors know he has the invisible hands behind so many promising area plays and watch him very closely. It is interesting to see how quickly he gets involved in promising junior plays where the fast money is made. In the old days there was Murray Pezim, not only should you be aware of the three P’s, People, Places, and Projects, but also it helps to follow the movements of mining investors like Bob M, and of course Eric Sprott and others.

        • On September 22, 2018 at 9:56 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          I was shocked when Inco got taken out by Vale twenty years ago. Mining companies of all sizes will disappear if their management isn’t extremely aggressive, that is one of the hallmarks of a winning strategy. Kirkland Lake is definitely a winner.

          • On September 22, 2018 at 10:02 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            I will watch Excellon more closely in the future, thanks for the heads up. I prefer to try to anticipate movement by watching volume and then get in. DT

          • On September 22, 2018 at 10:32 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Excellon is one to watch for any weakness on their lower Q3 production numbers over the next month or so for a good entry. The company stated in the news release and on that video linked above that, even though the trend of their production has been going up the last few quarters, that this quarter there would be a significant drop in production for only this quarter due to planning and surveying errors. Of course the conspiracy theories came out of the woodwork, or people blame it on water (past slam that has been resolved over the last 2 years but people love to dredge up an old idea that doesn’t apply and attach it to a narrative).

            Anyway, some poor chumps believe it all, but the company has also clearly stated it is isolated to Q3 and not a chronic or ongoing issue, and it was bad mine planning. Regardless, it will likely see more muted rallies and a pullback after the figures are reported (although, I’m not exactly sure why the numbers would be a surprise at that point to the market).

            Anyways, I’m hoping for a big pullback near year end to coincide with the report of the lower Q3 numbers to add to my Excellon position. Of course I won’t mind if it rises with the other Silver/Lead/Zinc miners, but I’d like to add, but want to get in during the setback, before they make the comeback. 🙂

  4. On September 22, 2018 at 6:54 am,
    Wolfster says:

    I still wonder how the rest of the year plays out regarding metals especially gold…could be bargain central with tax loss selling…….could I get lucky timingwise with pots peaking just when the bargains show up?🤔….anyways I found Adam Hamiltons take interesting.might have been posted already but I’ll post it

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton092118.html

    • On September 22, 2018 at 6:57 am,
      Wolfster says:

      Btw…..I still highly recommend Canntrust as a pot play who’s valuation isn’t absurd…….but will be if they get NASDAQ listing which the company is considering

    • On September 22, 2018 at 11:39 am,
      Matthew says:

      Adam’s first chart is an eye-opener. There was nothing typical about the “summer doldrums” this year. From a contrarian’s perspective, the setup is now very appealing.
      http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton092118/Zeal092118A.gif

  5. On September 22, 2018 at 6:57 am,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Bitcoin Black 3600 coins each given to the first 1 million people registered.

    Free non manipulated decentralized markets should be the goal.

    https://bitcoin.black/rewards/?a_aid=5b7f2d29ef46a

  6. On September 22, 2018 at 7:11 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Cory:
    When you choose two of the best personalities in your black book to interview on the same show, you can’t help but have a winner. You have done that this week end. Thanks…..

    • On September 22, 2018 at 8:20 am,
      Excelsior says:

      +1

      • On September 22, 2018 at 10:50 am,
        Cory says:

        As always thanks for all your insights Ex!!

        • On September 22, 2018 at 12:11 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks Cory. All the work to produce these interviews with such a range of guest are appreciated sir.

    • On September 22, 2018 at 10:49 am,
      Cory says:

      Thanks SilverDollar! I’m glad you enjoy hearing from Peter and Jesse as much as I do.

  7. On September 22, 2018 at 8:22 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Is Cheap. Inflation Is Coming. You Do the Math

    By: Andrew Bary Sept. 21, 2018 – Barron’s

    “Virtually every government in the world is trying to promote inflation partly because there is so much sovereign debt,” Trauner says. When there is so much debt, he contends, governments have three choices: default, restructure, or inflate the currency. “Politicians, when given the chance, will choose the latter.”

    “Naysayers point to higher interest rates as a negative for gold because it increases the allure of holding cash. But gold had one of its best decades during the inflationary 1970s, when rates soared.”

    “One catalyst that could change investor sentiment on gold is a decline in the U.S. dollar.”

    “Gold is the anti-dollar,” says Pierre Lassonde, the chairman and a co-founder of Franco-Nevada(FNV), a gold and mining royalty company with an $12 billion stock market value. “When the dollar is strong, there is no need for gold. But when the dollar is weak, people go back to gold.”

    “Historically, gold and the dollar have a negative correlation of 80% to 85%. The dollar has been supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening and lift its benchmark, the federal-funds rate, to 2.5%-3%, from the current range of 1.75% to 2% by the end of 2019.”

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-is-cheap-inflation-is-coming-you-do-the-math-1537582480

  8. On September 22, 2018 at 11:44 am,
    Matthew says:

    The miners have probably already bottomed versus the stock market. If not, they are very close to doing so.
    Gold miners priced in Dow:
    http://schrts.co/N3i39s

    • On September 22, 2018 at 11:46 am,
      Matthew says:

      Of course, it follows that SPY has probably already topped when priced in GDX:
      http://schrts.co/6i8tSn

  9. On September 22, 2018 at 12:23 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (USAS) (USA) Americas Silver Corporation – #CorporatePresentation #Video

    Darren Blasutti, President & CEO (09/21/2018) – Beavercreek Precious Metals Summit

    http://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2018/09/21/americas-silver-corporation/play/stream/25896

  10. On September 22, 2018 at 2:54 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Silver is getting ready to run versus gold:
    http://schrts.co/fdNSkg

  11. On September 23, 2018 at 6:16 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Bonterra mention reminded me I hadn’t read up on the golden valley/abitibi royalties for a while since the story there is really all about Malartic production….was happily surprised to see osisko royalties has taken a 7% stake in gzz and jimmy lee keeps buying up more shares and something about izz which is a new investment by gzz which I was totally unaware of.

    • On September 23, 2018 at 7:58 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, I agree the lion’s share of immediate upside for GZZ Golden Valley is in the 49% stake in Abitibi Royalties RZZ and their net smelter royalty on the Malarctic w/ Yamana & Agnico, where they have a few 3% at Odyssey, 2% at Charlie and Gouldie, and that odd 15% NSR at Radium Zone, all around that prospective Malartic land package. That is the biggie asset, but they have a nice portfolio of other assets that are looking more and more attractive.

      Glenn and team have put together other opportunistic JVs and Strategic investments with other companies like Sirios at Cheechoo, and Alexandria Minerals at Centremaque, Battery Minerals at Island 27, and the Bonterra recent success that you mentioned on Lac Barry.

      _______________________________________
      > Lac Barry Option Agreement

      • GZZ currently owns 100% of Lac Barry Prospect
      • GZZ granted an option to Bonterra Resources Inc. (TSXV:BTR) to acquire an 85% interest in the Lac Berry Prospect
      • To earn 85%, Bonterra must complete the following: Issue to GZZ a value of
      200,000 of BTR common shares (issued), Incur expenditures of $2 MM over 3 year period
      • Upon exercise, GZZ will retain a 15% free carried interest (“FCI”) and a 3% NSR, with 1% of the NSR being subject to a buyback for $1 MM

      __________________________________________________

      Beyond those GZZ also has strategic investments in their other spin outs:

      – International Prospect Ventures – operating in the hot Pilbara region of West Africa as a prospect generator

      – Val-D’ Or (MZZ) – on the large package of assets to further JV using the prospect generator model in the Abitibi Greenstone belt.

      >> (GZZ) (GLVMF) Golden Valley Mines – Corporate Presentation:

      [pages 9, 10, 11 show all the different value drivers, and even they aren’t sure how to value them all, but clearly they are worth far more collectively than Abititi Royalties 51% stake in just the Malartic claims, and far more than the current valuation implies]

      http://www.goldenvalleymines.com/investors/presentations/gzz-Aug2018-website.pdf

      • On September 23, 2018 at 8:05 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Ha – I got going too fast there when typing. For (IZZ) International Prospect Ventures, it should have said:

        “operating in the hot Pilbara region of West AUSTRALIA (not West Africa) as a prospect generator”

        I was researching different companies in West Africa earlier and just had that on my mind, but clearly the excitement in the Pilbara, W. Australia area play with Novo, DeGrey, Artemis, Kairos, Impact Minerals, Pioneer, Pacton, etc… was one of the biggest stories of 2017, and is still capturing the attention of investors all over the planet.

        GZZ Golden Valley’s “Wits End Project is located near Marble Bar and Nullagine, in the area of Australia’s original gold rush (located proximate to Novo Resources’
        Beaton Creek).”

        Glenn does a good job of acquiring land in the hot districts, although this move was a little later in the game, but still quite prospective if/when they figure out how to effectively mine the nuggets in the Pilbara conglomerates.
        Project”)

        • On September 23, 2018 at 9:29 am,
          Wolfster says:

          Having Rob McEwan involved all the time only makes it even more intriguing

          • On September 23, 2018 at 9:39 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed. That is just another positive.

            I’ve always wondered if he was going to make a move on Abitibi (RZZ) at one time down the road.

    • On September 23, 2018 at 8:10 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Speaking of Prospect Generators and Royalties…… My favorite royalty company over the last year has been Maverix Metals. I was already involved with some of their JV partners or keenly watching a number of the mines & projects they have Net Smelter Royalties on. I believe they are highly torqued to a steady move higher over the next few years as the projects they hold are already producing, but ramping up, or will be producing in the foreseeable future.

      ___________________________________________________________________

      (MMX) (MACIF) Maverix Metals Inc. – #CorporatePresentation #Video

      Dan O’Flaherty, CEO (09/21/2018) – Beavercreek Precious Metals Summit

      http://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2018/09/20/maverix-metals-inc/play/stream/25843

      • On September 23, 2018 at 9:36 am,
        Wolfster says:

        Yes it’s creeping up towards its 52 week high. Still relatively unknown based on its volume

        • On September 23, 2018 at 9:41 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Maverix (MMX) has a lot higher to creep to have valuation multiples like the mid-size (Sandstorm/Osisko) or major (Royal Gold, Franco Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals) peers in the royalty space.

          It has the right partners and projects to see a massive increase in gold production from partner projects for the next 3-5 year window.

  12. On September 23, 2018 at 8:31 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit Roundtable with MiningBookGuy, Trevor Hall & David Erfle

    MiningStockEducation – Sep 22, 2018 #AudioInterview

    “The topic of discussion centered around reflections and insights from the conference and the state of the junior mining sector right now. ”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6wanefxkeE

  13. On September 23, 2018 at 3:23 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Stocks Remain in Downtrend but Uranium Stocks on the Cusp of New Bull Market

    September 19, 2018 Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

    https://thedailygold.com/gold-stocks-remain-in-downtrend-but-uranium-stocks-on-the-cusp-of-new-bull-market/

  14. On September 23, 2018 at 4:53 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Barrick, Randgold in Late-Stage Merger Talks, Mining Blog Says

    By Natalie Wong – September 23, 2018

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-23/barrick-randgold-in-late-stage-merger-talks-mining-blog-says