Chris Temple from The National Investor – Thu 11 Oct, 2018

Precious Metals and PM Stocks Continuing To Rise On Market Worries

Chris Temple and I spend some time today discussing the move high in gold and the gold stock ETFs. These moves are coming on the back of the weakness in markets around the world and the assumption that the Fed is all of a sudden going to switch course. While the fears about markets outside of the US are warranted we do not see the Fed turning more dovish anytime soon.

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Chris TempleCory Fleck
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  1. On October 11, 2018 at 9:37 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Goldfinger had a good GLD chart out earlier showing that there is a good probabilistic setup for a breakout higher.


    @Goldfinger – “$GLD trying to break out here: Daily RSI confirming, pointing higher.”

    • On October 11, 2018 at 9:43 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold Miners Lift-Off
      by: @Goldfinger – October 11, 2018

      “I’ve been on the long gold miners (via GDX) theme for about a month now, you can see some of my thoughts in posts here and here. In the last 24 hours the gold miners have erupted from a powerful head & shoulders bottom pattern on the daily chart and broken out above resistance near $19.11:”

      “The way this breakout came about, via a sideways consolidation over several weeks, appears to have given it considerable potential energy judging by the surge in the FORCE Index (at bottom). While one could now argue that GDX is ‘overbought’ on shorter time frames, this is exactly what we want to see to confirm a powerful trend change on longer time frames.”

      • On October 11, 2018 at 12:16 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Goldfinger is right, this is exactly what we want to see. Like I warned in early 2016, you should use the weekly charts to stay on the right side of the big moves and (almost) ignore the daily charts.

  2. On October 11, 2018 at 9:50 am,
    Excelsior says:

    The August low in Gold has held, and we stated the yellow metals would then rally from Mid-August into September, and possibly have a larger move into the Fall if it can break above key resistance levels and close above key moving averages.

    The move up out of late Summer was much more muted than expected (with the dollar strength the last few months not helping the cause much) and the metals price just channeled sideways whipsawing back an forth; however, it actually could be starting to really break out here.

    We need to see more evidence first and some higher weekly closes, and ideally a higher monthly close, but the set up does look constructive for PMs to finally bounce for a few weeks and squeeze a few shorts out of their positions.

    Most of the Silver and Gold stocks I’m watching are surging bigly today, some even up double digits. Refreshing…

    • On October 11, 2018 at 9:58 am,
      Excelsior says:

      In harmony with Golds bottom in mid-August, it appears that the miners have followed suit and bottomed a month later in September, and are poised for a good rally here.

      >> I gotta tip my hat to Matthew who was confident we’d see a rally in the Fall in the miners around October. Good call.

      Personally I felt we’d have more oomph in the seasonally strong month of September that may spill over into October on a good rally, but the rally was quite muted in Gold and only ignited a few early movers in the miners. While things did bottom in Gold in August and start to rally in September, it took the larger breadth of miners a bit longer to bottom in September, and now they look set to run for a bit. We’ll see how much juice this move has.

      Good luck to traders here at the KER and hopefully most people were positioning during the slow times for the eventual upswings. Cheers!

      • On October 11, 2018 at 10:07 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Gold at $1223. Up 2.5% today.

      • On October 11, 2018 at 5:25 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Lets just hope theres some follow through Ex over the next few days. Last thing we want to see is a complete 180 to close the week or at the beginning of next week. Here in Aus, gold miners on our broad all ords market were big winners yesterday with some gains north of 8%. Interesting to see what happens in trading today (Australia time) on the back of golds big move northwards.

        As a side note, this is the biggest one day move since the brexit vote in 2016. This is probably a good illustration of the perceived knee-jerk panic reaction going on out there.

  3. On October 11, 2018 at 10:03 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Rick Rule: Large Miners “Crowding” Back Into Exploration

    By Tekoa Da Silva – October 10, 2018

    “Twenty years of underinvestment and malinvestment in exploration,” Rule explained, “has [created] a circumstance where major, mid-tier, and intermediate mining companies, are now crowding back into the exploration space, after having laid off their exploration staffs.”

    “I was [recently] at a party given by a very famous mining entrepreneur,” Rule proclaimed, “and the CEO of a major mining company … came across the room to where I was sitting and sat down next to me and said, ‘Rick, you have me right where you want me – the board has said we need to increase emphasis on exploration but we’ve de-emphasized exploration for [the last] 10 years – our pipeline is empty and we’re understaffed.’”

    “That [discussion was] the best endorsement for prospect generation that could possibly be given,” Rule stated.

    “The setup in prospect generators is probably the best in my career … Most people don’t know what they are … so there’s no competition from most investors. Investment bankers hate them [prospect generators] because they raise money from other mining companies rather than through written [bank] offerings.

    “So there’s no research from the sell-side because they never get to do any underwritings to support them,” Rule added.

    As a final comment Rule noted that, “All of a sudden, the prospect generators, which are unknown and unloved, have customers flocking to them. A circumstance where your business gets better and better, and your share price gets worse and worse – is a speculator’s dream. And that’s the circumstance that confronts us right now.”

  4. On October 11, 2018 at 10:45 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Here’s a quick glance at most of the Silver Producers in the green mid-afternoon.

    Refreshing to see…

    Symbol Last Price Change % Chg
    $BHS 0.12 +0.02 +14.29%
    $SCZ 0.10 +0.01 +11.11%
    $EXK 2.48 +0.20 +8.77%
    $FRES.L 839.00 +66.80 +8.65%
    $AG 6.12 +0.40 +7.05%
    $MYA 2.60 +0.15 +6.12%
    $USAS 2.44 +0.14 +6.09%
    $GPL 0.90 +0.05 +6.06%
    $CDE 5.48 +0.29 +5.59%
    $HOC.L 156.90 +7.80 +5.23%
    $HL 2.92 +0.13 +4.84%
    $SSRM 9.40 +0.39 +4.33%
    $SVM 2.32 +0.10 +4.35%
    $PAAS 15.27 +0.60 +4.06%
    $TAHO 2.97 +0.08 +2.77%
    $ASM 0.6621 +0.0166 +2.57%
    $GGD 0.32 0.00 +1.59%
    $IPT 0.345 +0.005 +1.47%

  5. On October 11, 2018 at 10:47 am,
    Matthew says:

    GLD is at resistance but looks great:

  6. On October 11, 2018 at 10:48 am,
    Matthew says:

    The HUI looks fantastic for a change:

  7. On October 11, 2018 at 10:52 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Here are most of the Major #Gold #Producers in the ~green today:

    Symbol – Last Price – Change – % Chg

    $HMY 1.99 +0.23 +13.07%
    $SBGL 3.11 +0.33 +11.87%
    $ABX 12.53 +1.03 +8.96%
    $RRS.L 5,706.00 +440.00 +8.36%
    $AUY 2.72 +0.20 +7.94%
    $AU 9.48 +0.66 +7.43%
    $AEM 37.10 +2.41 +6.95%
    $NEM 32.51 +1.95 +6.36%
    $G.TO 14.03 +0.83 +6.29%
    $GFI 2.79 +0.15 +5.89%
    $POLY.L 636.80 +28.00 +4.60%
    $KGC 2.95 +0.12 +4.24%

    • On October 11, 2018 at 11:08 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Here are most of the Mid-Tier Gold Producers with green on the screen this afternoon.

      Symbol – Last Price – Price change – Change % Chg

      $AR 1.785 +0.155 +9.51%
      $DPM 3.46 +0.30 +9.49%
      $MML.AX 0.34 +0.03 +7.94%
      $DRD 2.3999 +0.1699 +7.62%
      $TXG 12.95 +0.96 +8.01%
      $DGC 11.10 +0.72 +7.04%
      $IAG 3.98 +0.24 +6.42%
      $EVN.AX 2.88 +0.17 +6.27%
      $SBM.AX 3.73 +0.22 +6.27%
      $MUX 2.19 +0.12 +5.80%
      $BTG 2.57 +0.14 +5.76%
      $AGI 4.87 +0.26 +5.64%
      $1818.HK 6.28 +0.32 +5.37%
      $EGO 0.9482 +0.0482 +5.36%
      $SMF 3.18 +0.15 +4.95%
      $HGM.L 146.30 +6.90 +4.95%
      $GCM 2.64 +0.12 +4.76%
      $SSRM 9.43 +0.41 +4.61%
      $DNG 1.59 +0.07 +4.61%
      $OGC 3.875 +0.165 +4.45%
      $EDV 20.86 +0.88 +4.40%
      $PAF.L 8.24 +0.34 +4.30%
      $SLR.AX 0.53 +0.02 +3.92%
      $GUY 3.18 +0.11 +3.58%
      $ASR 2.30 +0.07 +3.14%
      $SAR.AX 2.01 +0.06 +3.08%
      $RRL.AX 3.85 +0.11 +2.94%
      $KOZAL.IS 51.90 +1.35 +2.67%
      $RSG.AX 1.02 +0.02 +2.51%
      $RMS.AX 0.455 +0.01 +2.25%
      $LMC 1.95 +0.04 +2.09%
      $TGZ 3.97 +0.08 +2.06%
      $NST.AX 8.50 +0.17 +2.04%
      $CEE 1.69 +0.03 +1.81%
      $CG 5.165 +0.085 +1.67%
      $DRM.AX 0.33 +0.01 +1.54%
      $AKG 0.8658 +0.0096 +1.12%

      • On October 11, 2018 at 11:16 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Here are most of the Smaller Gold Producers with green on the screen this afternoon.

        Symbol – Last Price – Price change – Change % Chg

        $CTL.AX 0.009 0.00 +100.00%
        $WPG.AX 0.015 0.00 +100.00%
        $SGN 0.02 0.00 +33.33%
        $RZL 0.025 +0.005 +25.00%
        $LODE 0.243 +0.048 +24.62%
        $ALO 0.8126 +0.0926 +12.86%
        $IO 0.045 +0.005 +12.50%
        $MQR 0.20 +0.02 +11.11%
        $JAG 0.20 +0.015 +8.11%
        $MLN 0.12 +0.01 +9.09%
        $PG 1.92 +0.16 +9.37%
        $WDO 3.96 +0.33 +9.09%
        $GORO 5.61 +0.44 +8.60%
        $EQX 0.99 +0.04 +4.21%
        $NIM 0.14 0.00 +3.70%
        $F 0.36 +0.01 +2.86%
        $HAV.AX 0.195 +0.005 +2.63%
        $ANX 0.245 +0.005 +2.08%
        $SGI 1.01 +0.02 +2.02%
        $SHG.L 4.70 +0.08 +1.62%
        $GGD 0.32 0.00 +1.59%
        $ORA 2.05 +0.03 +1.49%
        $GSS 0.746 +0.0079 +1.07%
        $PGD.L 56.50 +0.46 +0.82%

        • On October 11, 2018 at 1:53 pm,
          Skeeta says:

          Ex, in the thread you posted….

          $CTL.AX 0.009 0.00 +100.00%
          $WPG.AX 0.015 0.00 +100.00%

          Unfortunately for both companies that’s not accurate 🙁

          CTL.AX have been in voluntary suspension for quite a few months now, but I know they are still trucking ore out of the A1 mine as I passed a couple of their trucks on the road a few weeks back whilst in that area.

          WPG.AX went into receivership months back & are in the hands of administrators.


          • On October 12, 2018 at 6:00 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Skeeta – Thanks for the heads up on those. I have lists built in Yahoo Finance and just pulled those different lists mid-day yesterday, but didn’t notice that both CTL.AX and WPG.AX were frozen at prior dates, and that increase is how they were displaying on Yahoo. Looking at it now I should have questioned the dueling 100% increases, but was in a rush when I posted those.

            1) WPG RESOUR FPO (WPG.AX)
            0.0150.00 (100.00%)
            At close: June 22 4:10PM AEST
            [** Now I see that there was no trading yesterday and that this was stuck since June 22nd]


            CENTENNML FPO (CTL.AX)
            0.0090.00 (100.00%)
            At close: June 21 11:14AM AEST

            [Now I see where that one was frozen on June 21st]


            Thanks again Skeeta. I’ll blow WPG.AX out of there but will keep CTL.AX on that small producers list until they get unsuspended.

      • On October 11, 2018 at 11:33 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Oops…. I forgot Roxgold having a nice day and it should have been in listed with the Mid-Tier gold producers.

        $ROXG 0.88 +.06 +7.3%

        • On October 12, 2018 at 6:02 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Roxgold ended up giving up some gains yesterday to only close up 3.66% but, I’m still interested to see how this one may grow over the next year, as they are producing good revenues now and I see them as a great potential takeover candidate for one of the big boys to come in and scoop up.

          Roxgold Inc. (ROXG.TO)
          0.85+0.03 (+3.66%)
          At close: October 11 4:00PM EDT

  8. On October 11, 2018 at 11:11 am,
    Matthew says:

    We’ll be in great shape if gold can finish the week without falling apart. Notice the (weekly) MACD:

  9. On October 11, 2018 at 11:17 am,
    Matthew says:

    The yen is in sync with gold:

  10. On October 11, 2018 at 11:26 am,
    Matthew says:
  11. On October 11, 2018 at 11:32 am,
    Matthew says:

    The dollar is about to help put a squeeze on the gold shorts:

  12. On October 11, 2018 at 11:49 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDXJ is up 12% vs SPY this week and looks ready to gain another 50%…

  13. On October 11, 2018 at 11:56 am,
    GH says:

    About time and welcome!!

    Cheers to the bulls.

  14. On October 11, 2018 at 12:01 pm,
    Temple says:

    Did someone kidnap the cartel members??

    • On October 11, 2018 at 12:19 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Those guys are probably the biggest gold bulls of all. Appearances can and should be deceiving if you’ve got massive amounts of cash to deploy.

  15. On October 11, 2018 at 12:27 pm,
    Jay T says:

    It’s a mistake IMO to think we need to see Fed ACTION before things turn for the dollar and gold.

    The market will anticipate that the Fed must change course several weeks/ months in advance (perhaps is sensing it now?) and things will change well in advance of any obvious Fed action to change course.

    • On October 11, 2018 at 1:02 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It’s much better to watch the charts than the Fed.

  16. On October 11, 2018 at 2:19 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Stocks could bounce a little here but they’re still a sell if they do:

  17. On October 11, 2018 at 2:28 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The HUI gained 7.4% while the Dow lost 2.13%. I wonder if those who thought that couldn’t happen realize how bullish it is that it did.

  18. On October 12, 2018 at 1:54 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Unloved gold sector regains shine with mergers, price spike
    Cecilia Jamasmie | about 16 hours ago

    “Shortly after, Canada’s Americas Silver (USA) announced it was buying Pershing Gold (PGLC) for $50.78 million in an all-stock deal.”

    “By acquiring Pershing, Americas Silver is expected to increase precious metal production by five times and silver equivalent production to about 14 million AgEq ounces by 2020.”

    “While mergers and acquisitions have become cheaper than expanding reserves of gold through exploration, Americas Silver does not see further acquisitions in the horizon. “The company’s philosophy has been to find value through better execution, but not event-type risk so the strategy is to remain Americas focused,” Blasutti says.

    “Currently, Americas Silver expects to produce between 1.6 million and 2 million ounces of silver and between 7.2 and 8 million silver equivalent ounces this year. The company, which owns multiple producing assets in Mexico, has also focused on zinc and lead as silver prices have been lackluster through most of the year.”

  19. On October 12, 2018 at 6:10 am,
    Excelsior says:

    A Crash but Maybe Not The Crash

    Bob Moriarty – Oct 12, 2018

    “The price of gold hit a low on August 15th as the DSI touched a low of only 6 for gold and 7 for silver marking an extreme of emotion. While gold bottomed, silver and the shares continued down into September. The rally could have used a good dose of Viagra since it was pretty limp at best.”

    “The price of juniors tanked with the overall stock market in the last couple of days and there was lots of low hanging and sweet fruit for those who were cashed up. On Thursday the 11th, the general market continued to tank while gold shot higher. The DOW managed to drop 1400 points in two days but gold went up $30 in a day dragging many junior resource lottery tickets higher, kicking and screaming all the way.”

    “I was wrong on both the timing and strength of a late summer gold rally. It came weeks after I suggested and wasn’t anything to write home about.”

    “However, I think we are in the first inning of what will be exciting times for resource stock and metals owners.”

    “The DSI for the DOW and S&P has tumbled to 10 and while hardly good enough for a major turn higher, it’s low enough to kick the cat into a good bounce. But the crash has only begun. After the cat bounces look for fireworks a few weeks from now. Good for gold and silver, bad for the rest of the bubble.”