Myrmikan Research – How Wall Street Uses The Capital Asset Pricing Model to Snooker Investors
Dan Oliver is the founder of Myrmikan Capital and a good friend of the show. He always has some well thought out comments on the gold market and how the overall financial system is being run. The report below is his latest commentary that he agreed to share with us.
Click here to read over the recent Myrmikan Capital report (in PDF).
Here’s a good update from Goldfinger:
Westhaven Strikes 24.5 g/t Gold Over 17.77 Meters At Shovelnose
by @Goldfinger on October 17, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/westhaven-strikes-245-gt-gold-over-1777-meters-at-shovelnose
Matthew, after weeks of research and listening to Paul Harrell and Hickok45 videos, I just bought the 6-gun of my dreams: a Ruger .327 fed. mag w/ 3″ barrel. On the box of American Eagle 100 gr ammo it says the muzzle velocity is 1500 ft/sec w/500 ft pounds. That will get any carjacker’s attention. Very salty round! The 85 grain rounds have 362 ft. pounds, which is pretty good too. Do you prefer hollow points or soft lead tips for muggers, robbers, and burglars? Thanks for your advice.
That’s great Bonzo. I have to admit that I looked into the round after you brought it up and I like it. You should try the Federal 75gr. Barnes TAC-XP. It delivers 1550 fps out of a 3″ (1700 out of a 6″).
I generally like hollow points but soft points are probably just as good.
https://www.shootingillustrated.com/articles/2018/8/18/7-reasons-to-use-327-federal-magnum-for-self-defense/
Thanks, Matthew. And when I registered the gun with Ruger they gave me a 20% coupon I can use to buy a leather holster that fits the SP-101 w/3″ barrel.
Dan Oliver’s report is very interesting.
+1
BB, juar supported your ngd. Added to my position.
Doc, glad to hear you bought more NGD. I”m betting the new CEO from Richmont can turn things around and restore NGD to its former glory. When will you buy NSRPF again?
The IMF has all but admitted the world economy is going to crash again in the not too distant future. This sort of fear mongering is a concern due to who it came from. I mean the IMF isnt just some opinionated doom and gloom type individual (think Marc Faber). Is there some sort of hidden agenda going on here or is it just the sobering truth?
Inflation/Deflation Face-Off: Harry Dent vs. James Rickards
Death of the DollarEconomyNews
October 18, 2018 0
from Casey Research:
Hanging with Harley – Harley Schlanger
CorruptionDeep StateGeopoliticsLiberty RisingNewsNWO TyrannyPolitics
October 17, 2018 0
from ROGUE NEWS:
I’ll stick with my 642 Smith with 125gr. Hornady XTPs.
That should do the trick, and I considered it, but I went with the Ruger SP-101 .327 mag to get an extra round.
(SCZ) (SZSMF) Santacruz Silver Makes Final Option Payment to Golden Minerals
@newswire on October 16, 2018
“With this payment Santacruz now owns outright, subject to underlying net smelter royalties on certain of the claims, these important concessions and controls approximately 8,900 hectares in the historic and prolific Zacatecas silver mining belt.” stated Carlos Silva, COO of the Company. Mr. Silva continued “We are confident that as we progress the exploration and development of our Zacatecas mineral portfolio we will realize the strong mineral potential of this historical mining district”.
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/santacruz-silver-makes-final-option-payment-to-golden
(WKM) (WKLDF) West Kirkland MJ Zone 80 feet (24 m) Grading 2.69 grams Gold per tonne At Surface Hasbrouck Project, Tonopah, Nevada
by @nasdaq on October 16, 2018
“WKM controls (75% interest) and operates the Hasbrouck gold project with 762,000 ounces of proven and probable reserves (45,270,000 tons at 0.6 Au g/t; 8.0 Ag g/t for 10,569,000 contained Ag ounces) and has a 100% option interest in the Gold Mountain area which is the subject of recent exploration.”
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/west-kirkland-mj-zone-80-feet-24-m-grading-269-grams
Eric Sprott Announces Holdings in Resource Capital Gold (RCG)
As a result of the Warrant expiry, Mr. Sprott now beneficially owns and controls 34,035,089 common shares and 3,944,444 Warrants representing approximately 19.5% of the outstanding common shares on a non-diluted basis and approximately 21.2% on a partially diluted basis assuming the exercise of all Warrants.
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/eric-sprott-announces-holdings-in-resource-capital
(ANX) Anaconda should takeover (RCG)Resource Capital Gold corp for pennies on the dollar right now, and then move back over to considering Maritime next year.
Resource Capital Gold Corp – Corporate Presentation:
http://www.rcgcorp.ca/assets/docs/RCG%20Corporate%20Presentation%20May%202017%20Web.pdf
+1
Stocks are again down significantly while the gold miners are up significantly. Those who think that this action is meaningless or “nothing to get exited about” are out to lunch.
GDX:SPY
http://schrts.co/1F8FHP
HUI:SPX speed lines:
http://schrts.co/wie21X
Up .32% constitutes “up significantly?” (with 45 minutes left to close).
Is the Dow even down 5% from the top? Yet after smashing mining shares on a relative basis for 6.5 years, a week or two of mean reversion makes you think this is finally “it” for the miners?
OK.
It was up 5x that .32% when I posted and it’s the appetite for miners when stocks are down that matters. It even bullish if the gold miners were down with stocks but down much less.
Mean reversion has little to do with what I think is happening here.
Some people might get excited more easily than others.
ipt is down from 55 cents in May this year, we did get a bitofabump, guess its exciting.
Just pointing out ipt I know its a fave of urs.
Im with Doc on this one, I dont see anything to get excited about yet.
Eventually we will tho.
Like I said, out to lunch. What does IPT’s being down have to do with anything?!
Remember when I kept buying it in the .20s last year before it doubled? I had a million plus shares at the time and now it’s exciting again. If you had a clue, you know that you should be excited when things are at their lows, not their highs. Don’t you think it’s better to buy IPT in the .20s than the .50s with silver where it’s at? In the future, the .50s will be a bargain but not today.
As the reality of the new picture for the miners becomes more obvious, more and more people will finally see what they should see right now. That’s how it always works and we’ll get a top when most people think excitement is warranted. Funny stuff.
What?!? You wernt buying @ 11?
Last year was 2017, b. Before the 2016 rise, I did buy what I could at 11 cents.
http://schrts.co/KJsyHz
Here’s what I said after some thought they should dump their positions after a measly but quick 168% gain:
http://schrts.co/Si6JQL
I knew you bought them at 11.
and sure, nows a good tome too.
ooops, time
Before the huge move of 2016 got going, I was right to be more bullish than James Flanagan, and he’s very good:
On February 1, 2016 at 8:07 pm,
Matthew says:
I was watching this good video by James Flanagan (thanks Bob at 321 Gold), and was struck by the fact that Mr. Flanagan singled out the gold stock bull of 2001 as being one that we won’t likely see again anytime soon. At first, it’s easy to see why if we price the gold stocks in the Fed Funhouse Frivolous Fiat Fiction. That bull dwarfed the previous three and the one that came out of the ’08 collapse when measured in the dollar. The problem is, the dollar was entering an F-5 storm that greatly distorted what what was really happening. It plunged and everything went up in price as a consequence. Gold didn’t go up four fold, the dollar fell 75%. We know this because even base metals like copper, zinc and lead outperformed gold versus the dollar. So, as is always the case, in my opinion, it is better to measure performance using the most stable currency in history — gold. I did that with the following chart but had to use the XAU instead of the HUI because the HUI doesn’t go back far enough. Note that in real terms, the 2001 gold stock bull was nothing special at all. Now look at the gold value of the XAU today (as if you could miss it). Now THAT is going to prove to be a multi-generational low. The XAU would have to go up 5 or 6 fold just to get back to where it was in 2006. If gold were to double while it did so, it would translate to a 10 to 12 fold rise when priced in dollars. It would have to go up 10 fold versus gold to match its 1996 high.
All things considered, I think it’s reasonable to be more bullish than Mr. Flanagan seems to be.
XAU:GOLD Monthly:
January’s price bar is the best monthly bar we’ve seen in a very long time. It closed the month where it opened after first plunging 17% to a new low. The bears are exhausted.
And Flanagan was and still is right. 2 years after the low in 2000, the HUI was up 4-5X.
2 years after this “bull” and the HUI is up a piddling 1.5X. Not only that, but the 2000 bull trended beautifully for 7 straight years. The current “set up” is a mess, in stark contrast with the major LT moving averages having rolled over hard or are in the process of rolling over.
No, he was incorrect in real terms/purchasing power terms. You apparently didn’t follow what I was saying in that old post. The XAU’s gains VS gold in 2016 were FAR greater than they were in the 2001 move — and they came MUCH quicker.
It’s too bad you can’t see the chart that went with the post.
Of the 7 gold stock bull markets since 1985, the 2016 one delivered the largest gains by far while Flanagan’s 2001 bull delivered the smallest. The central banks get away with an awful lot by making sure that most people don’t understand gold. Black is white and up is down.
XAU:GOLD 2016: 156%
XAU:GOLD 2000-2002: 87%
In dollars, the XAU TRIPLED in 2016 while it barely gained 115% in 2000-2002. That’s almost 3 times the gain in one-quarter the time! 🙄
I was clearly right to be more bullish than he was.
At the end of the 2000-2002 move, the XAU pulled back 39%. After the 2016 move, it dropped 47%. Believe it or not, that 39% amounted to a greater percentage retracement of the preceding move up than the 47% drop this time. So, no matter how you slice it, the ’16 bull move was far superior.
Had Mr Flanagan looked at or placed more importance on the XAU:GOLD chart, he would have seen why he should have been much more optimistic. The $XAU chart hid reality from him. Except in the short term, the buck is not a legitimate numeraire!
Speaking of getting excited…….
I’m pretty excited about my gains today in Serengeti Resources (SIR)
0.43 0.28 186.7%
Kwanika Copper Corporation Drills 514 Metres of 0.64% Cu, 0.80g/t Au (2.15 g/t Au Eq) Including 168 Metres of 0.81% Cu, 1.71 g/t Au (3.42 g/t Au Eq) at Kwanika
October 18, 2018
Serengeti Resources Inc. (SIR: TSX-V) is pleased to report the first batch of assay results from the 2018 drilling campaign completed at the Kwanika Project in north-central BC. The fully funded 2018 drilling program is part of the ongoing Kwanika Pre-Feasibility Study scheduled for completion in mid-2019, as described in Serengeti Resources’ press release dated September 11th, 2018. Kwanika Copper Corporation, is a private company jointly owned by SERENGETI RESOURCES Inc. (65%) and POSCO DAEWOO Corporation (35%).
“These outstanding results are from the first two holes of our 2018 drill program at Kwanika. The long intervals show excellent grades near surface within the potential open pit domain, and also demonstrate that strong gold and copper-rich mineralization is present within the potential underground domain outlined in our 2017 PEA. We’re looking forward to incorporating the full set of results from this year’s drilling into a revised resource estimate which is a priority input into the prefeasibility study scheduled for completion mid-2019. One of our key strategic objectives for 2018 is to expand the resource tonnage and to increase the overall resource grade of the Central Zone. If we’re successful, it will open up a number of alternatives for our engineers to optimize the project design and potentially enhance the overall project economics” stated David W Moore, President & CEO of Serengeti and President of Kwanika Copper Corp.
Yeah….. Yeah…… Yeah….. I know, Gold miners are boring.
I’m sure sad I made 187% gains today, and should have put that money in the Amazon. (lol)
😉
EX, cherry picking can be done with alot of stocks.
Over all, not much action in goldshares.
Compare to the pot sector, which one has been more exciting?
There are others Im sure.
I honustly dont have the ability to focus on every sector on every market, I have my lists and thats the max for me.
Im not going to even attempt 100 or so gold companies.
If you can, all the best to ya.
I find a person doesnt need to follow that many to make money.
B – I had a position in Serengeti until about 30 minutes ago and positioned near the low on fundamental reasons and because my buddies Peter Newton Bell and Mickey Mantle (KD) turned me onto it expecting this drill campaign.
Now the drill campaign hit and almost got a 2 bagger out of it.
Yes it was cherry picking, but most people just call it good stock picking. 🙂
you also wrote “Over all, not much action in goldshares.”
Well today here are the Major Gold Producers ALL in the green:
Symbol Last Price Change % Chg
$HMY 2.12 +0.09 +4.43%
$ABX 13.21 +0.49 +3.85%
$AU 9.90 +0.34 +3.61%
$RRS.L 6,258.00 +194.00 +3.20%
$GFI 2.91 +0.05 +1.57%
$AUY 2.70 +0.04 +1.50%
$G 14.39 +0.19 +1.34%
$NEM 32.53 +0.42 +1.31%
$AEM 37.27 +0.47 +1.28%
$KGC 2.89 +0.03 +1.05%
$SBGL 3.20 +0.01 +0.47%
$NCM.AX 20.56 +0.06 +0.29%
$POLY.L 726.40 +0.80 +0.11%
….. and these Mid-tier #Gold #Producers
Symbol Last Price Change % Chg
$ORV 0.16 +0.02 +10.34%
$GCM 2.54 +0.10 +4.10%
$CG 5.33 +0.15 +2.90%
$HGM.L 148.20 +3.70 +2.56%
$MUX 2.32 +0.06 +2.43%
$SAR.AX 2.27 +0.05 +2.25%
$SMF 3.20 +0.07 +2.24%
$SLR.AX 0.57 +0.01 +1.79%
$TXG 12.94 +0.23 +1.81%
$DRM.AX 0.38 0.00 +1.33%
$PAF.L 9.10 +0.11 +1.22%
$ASR 2.255 +0.025 +1.12%
$SBM.AX 3.92 +0.04 +1.03%
$OGC 3.93 +0.02 +0.64%
$AKG 0.822 +0.006 +0.71%
$EDV 21.30 +0.14 +0.66%
… oh, and these rascals…. the Small #Gold #Producers
Symbol Last Price Change % Chg Currency
$RAB 0.05 +0.01 +25.00%
$GG 0.06 +0.01 +20.00%
$OMI 0.12 +0.02 +20.00%
$GER 0.145 +0.015 +11.54%
$TMR 4.96 +0.20 +4.20%
$MQR 0.25 +0.01 +4.17%
$MLN 0.125 +0.005 +4.17%
$ALTN.L 0.65 +0.03 +4.00%
$GQM 0.165 +0.005 +3.13%
$SMC 0.17 0.00 +3.03%
$PG 2.02 +0.05 +2.54%
$WDO 3.96 +0.09 +2.33%
$ALO 0.831 +0.017 +2.11%
$EQX 0.99 +0.01 +1.02%
$GSS 0.7335 +0.0066 +0.91%
$AMI.AX 0.745 +0.005 +0.68%
We also saw some green on the screen for the Gold Developers today
Symbol Last Price Change % Chg
TRX 0.45 +0.0298 +7.09%
GRR 0.20 +0.01 +5.26%
CDV.AX 0.46 +0.02 +4.55%
PGM 0.56 +0.02 +3.70%
SBB 1.41 +0.06 +4.44%
VGZ 0.5849 +0.0192 +3.39%
AAU 0.5519 +0.0153 +2.85%
HRT 0.40 +0.01 +2.56%
BSX 0.205 +0.005 +2.50%
RUP 0.92 +0.02 +2.22%
DCN.AX 2.30 +0.04 +1.77%
ORE 0.67 +0.01 +1.52%
GOR.AX 0.70 +0.01 +1.45%
FPC 0.35 0.00 +1.45%
AGB 1.68 +0.02 +1.20%
PZG 1.16 +0.01 +0.87%
very exciting ex.
my comparision with pot stocks stands tho.
imo pots been more exciting.
a cherry, was tilray, tlry just under 10 bags in about 6 weeks.
im in and follow both…oops not in pot right now sry, weed topped about 70.
that was a bitoaction too.
to be clear, i never owned tilray, i was just mentioning, there has been alot of action in the u.s. market, I dont play it tho.
Yeah, there is no doubt that pot stocks have been where the action was in 2018
– like how the crypto-currencies & Cobalt stole the show in 2017
– or how PMs & Lithium stole the show in 2016
– or how Biotech got people jazzed in 2014 & 2015
Speculative funds run from one phenomenon to the next to the next as a mob….
My point was that the gains in (SIR) Serengeti today [up between 160-200% on the day] are just more evidence of there being a very healthy speculative crowd in the exploration drill plays.
Look at how (WHN) Westhaven did yesterday on a drill hole… up 190%+ in one day
Look at how (GGI) Garibaldi is doing today on drill hole…. up 31% just today
We saw this with Evrim, with Great Bear, with Sokoman Iron, and on and on….. there have been dozens of explorers that shot up to be 3 – 5 – 10 baggers just like the pot stocks, but it wasn’t a broad increase across the board.
Also, today Gold and Gold stocks did pretty well as those were 1 day numbers aboce and the market is still open, where most asset classes were down.
Yup, I agree.
+190% in 1 day, sometimes trading gets halted on those moves.
if pots finished moving for awhile, money will be looking for somewhere to be, maybe golds turn is coming.
Yes, tading was halted today before the (SIR) Serengeti news. It launched from $.15 to $.59 at one point, but was in the $.35-$.45 range most of the day. Pretty epic daily move, as was Westhaven’s yesterday.
We saw it with Golden Ridge, Royal Nickel Corp, Great Bear, Adriatic, GT Gold, and more recently. There are some wild speculative currents around the drill plays right now.
Serengeti Drills 514 m of 0.8 g/t Au at Kwanika
18 October 2018
http://tsxpennystocks.ca/mining/news/701-serengeti-drills-514-m-of-0-8-g-t-au-at-kwanika
After stocks plunged last week:
On October 11, 2018 at 2:19 pm,
Matthew says:
Stocks could bounce a little here but they’re still a sell if they do:
Ex, I’m sure you took profits today in Westhaven Ventures, I remember you talking about this stock many weeks ago. The opportunities are always out there no matter what people say you just have to be aware. DT