Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 25 Oct, 2018

Updating The CoT Reports For Gold and Its Impact On Actual Price

A lot of the PM crowd have been looking at the CoT reports and pointing to the speculator positions that was net short in gold as a bullish sign. Two weeks ago we saw some short covering by the speculators which drove gold higher but not near any breakout levels. Craig Hemke joins me to discuss the gold action in the face of US market volatility and a rising US dollar.

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  1. On October 25, 2018 at 1:59 pm,
    Jason says:

    I got 1k on NUGT for overnight swing trade.

  2. On October 25, 2018 at 4:46 pm,
    Reo says:

    THE GOLD ACTION…What action??? Just going down as usual and the goldbugs keep saying ..IT S GOING UP SOON…like a broken recording

  3. On October 25, 2018 at 6:06 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Gold itself is still in a bear market I believe but when you sit back and look at it from a mid-term perspective (couple of years), the trend is up. So to just say its down as usual is not entirely accurate. When one delves into the affiliated miners of PMs since the 2015 low then one can clearly see theres been pleny of upside.

    I do get sick of the repeated narrative that golds going up “soon”. It is what it is though. The moves are muted whether it still in a bear phase or the infancy of a bull phase. This is why im interested to see if gold can keep its year on year uptrend (around $1280 come Dec 31) in tact as we approach 2019. Others look at different targets when coming to a conclusion of continued upside being in the works.

    In the interim, I believe today is a big day for gold. With the whipsawing nature of global markets becoming the norm of late, the somewhat inverse relationship associated with safe havens like gold are caught up in this tug of war. Abit more “base building wont hurt in the short term but sooner or later gold will needs to close convincingly above the apparent short term resistance that is the 200wma to move further ahead.

  4. On October 25, 2018 at 6:49 pm,
    Chartster says:

    A big day for the dollar tomorrow and next week. A big day for derivatives tomorrow and next week. Gonna be interesting.

    • On October 25, 2018 at 7:18 pm,
      Ozibatla says:


    • On October 25, 2018 at 9:26 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      A quick look at the dollar chart shows were at an interesting juncture. Either we could be about to witness a double top or it breaks to the upside and we could see parity in the near future. Parity would become more likely if the Fed raises rates again in Dec. Of course there are other factors that come into play as well with global markets in abit of a mess currently. One way or another I think the dollar makes a definitive move up or down sometime soon

  5. On October 25, 2018 at 7:11 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:


  6. On October 25, 2018 at 8:05 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    ARV.AX ARTTF – How a mob of stray cattle started a gold rush in the Pilbara

  7. On October 25, 2018 at 8:23 pm,
    b says:

    Twitter Bans Former Asst. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts

    PCR was asked a few years ago if he was afraid for his life, he said he figured he had nothing to worry about until they shut down RT.

    The americans are pressing for war, looks like they try to keep what they are doing secret.

    Not sure why they bother to be concerned, most people prefer sports scores.

    • On October 26, 2018 at 5:30 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      I thought the following comments were interesting……………….
      From PCR
      Roberts also suggested that “The Zionist Neoconservatives are responsible for Washington’s unilateral abandonment of the INF treaty, just as they were responsible for Washington’s unilateral abandonment of the ABM Treaty [in 2002], the Iran nuclear agreement, and the promise not to move NATO one inch to the East.”

      Is this what got him suspended?

      Roberts goes on to say that the ideology of US neoconservatives is “akin to the German Nazy Party last century” in their ideology of American supremacy and exceptionalism.

      “Their over-confidence about their ability to quickly defeat Israel’s enemies and open the Middle East to Israeli expansion got the US bogged down in wars in the Middle East for 17 years … During this time, both Russia and China rose much more quickly than the neoconservatives thought possible.”

      • On October 26, 2018 at 5:31 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Two Headed Snake Party Live and doing well………MICC…….congress with the Thugs.

  8. On October 26, 2018 at 7:06 am,
    Chartster says:

    Nah… the two headed snake is being lopped off. The democrat party is over. The Republican Party is purging RINOs.

    This self induced sympathy bomb threat of the traitors is the easiest to read deep state playbook, as Doctor Seuss. These morons are desperate.

    • On October 26, 2018 at 7:32 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      When Deep State refunds the $21 TRILLION MISSING ……..Then I will be more convinced …… And the FED IS ABOLISHED ……. 🙂

      • On October 26, 2018 at 7:33 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Oh, …….and TERM LIMITS imposed……….

      • On October 26, 2018 at 7:49 am,
        Chartster says:

        On the day when Deutsche bank breaks below 10.00$ per share which will trigger the coco bonds creating the derivative bubble, and the 3 month libor rate going above 2.5% with a 0.5% margin at the banks stooping overnight derivative lending. And all of this at the same time while stocks are getting smashed.

        The crash is here! Trump and team are blaming the fed for the coming implosion. The fed is already cooked. They know it, Trump and team knows it, and you’re about to know it.

        • On October 26, 2018 at 9:00 am,
          b says:

          The fed is not “cooked”, they have 100 years of practice in the U.S. alone.
          They expand and contract the money supply at will.
          Thats all thats happening now.

          Money masters….bill still.
          or follow what Rothchild did from waterloo, prior Rothchilds worked to gain their position, waterloo was simply the opportunity to entrench themselves.

          Expansion and contraction of the money supply has been the method ever since.
          Loans for war pay the best.

          Dig a little further and you find the direction comes from the Talmud.
          Interesting to see the Taludists thrown out of nations repeatedly like the 1290 edict etc but they finally settled down.

          The Moses and related stories are twisted having multiple names etc… from there research takes ya to the Cuneiforms and ya gotta wonder if those Cuneiforms are not correct.

          Much easier placing a bet on tonights game. lol

          Better yet, debate what charts say about PMs moving up or down or go for the big prize….when. lol gl.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 10:38 am,
            Chartster says:

            I’m quite aware of what the fed has done in the last 100 years. I’m also quite aware of what they have Not done in the last 2 years.

            I guess it’ll be a pleasant surprise for you when they get nationalized😉

          • On October 26, 2018 at 11:03 am,
            Matthew says:

            You say the silliest things, Chartster. Nationalizing the Fed would not be an improvement in ANY way. The Marxist institution needs to be shut down.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 11:06 am,
            Matthew says:

            P.s. – It is infantile to think that those who call the shots would change if it WERE nationalized. It is mind-blowing that so many people just like you do not understand who’s really in charge. To think that it is Trump is beyond ridiculous.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 11:11 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ditto……..on closing the Marxist/Fed……..Nothing but a Con game

          • On October 26, 2018 at 11:13 am,
            b says:

            Thing is thats not the question anymore, the question is, what system is the right one?

            Its a tuff one, most people dont have a clue about the fed,banks,the families running them or their beliefs etc and how it all affects everything.

            good grief, the last u tube vid I watched was people being interviewed about them being boys or girls bla bla bla
            How would those people ever find an inkling?

            Its the system that has to be defined, I dont have a clue as to what it should be, but some people figure there are people preparing for some changes.

            Which could also be bs, they might be simply preparing for the next world reserve currency change.

            Some families have seen that a time or two I hear.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 11:13 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Where is Andy Jackson when you need him…………. 🙂

          • On October 26, 2018 at 11:32 am,
            Chartster says:

            When the fed gets nationalized, it means taking away the ownership (taking it over). You can’t just shut the doors on an institution that is so important to payment systems and such. (and silly to think it)
            It’s also quite silly to believe the debt system stays intact after this derivative bubble that’s popping right now. YES, popping Right Now.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 11:58 am,
            Matthew says:

            That’s absolute nonsense, Chartster. The Fed, like all central banks, is detrimental to its host society as it serves only the wishes of a very elite few. “Payment systems and such”? Try “slavery and such.”
            It seems you are unaware that the Fed is the third U.S. central bank and that the first two were abolished.

            Re: “It’s also quite silly to believe the debt system stays intact after this derivative bubble that’s popping right now.” — Who is that directed at and what does it have to do with anything? I did not mention the “debt system” but for you to say that it won’t stay intact after also saying that the Fed is necessary is hilarious.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 12:12 pm,
            Chartster says:

            Trump and team have been trolling the fed for quite some time now. They created the derivative bubble that’s popping right now! They will get the blame for the market crash…
            If the treasury takes control of monetary policy, That IS the end of the fed.

            You do realize, you’ve been wrong about Trump on everything, right? (Heh heh)

          • On October 26, 2018 at 12:49 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I’ve actually been wrong about absolutely nothing pertaining to Trump. He has continued with the exact same spending habits and foreign policy as his predecessors and kicked-off his presidency by reneging on his promise to jail Clinton (even calling her a wonderful person). He then stacked his administration with well-known swamp dwellers. If you ever educate yourself sufficiently, you’ll cringe with embarrassment about your little “heh heh.”
            So, one more time, if you think the nationalization of the Fed would be an improvement, you are very sadly mistaken.
            Whether you’re talking markets or politics, you’re analysis has consistently been aimed at supporting your dreams rather than figuring out the facts.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 12:50 pm,
            Matthew says:

            *Your* analysis, not you’re 🙄

          • On October 26, 2018 at 1:02 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Remember this, Chartster?…
            On February 28, 2016 at 8:28 pm,
            Chartster says:
            If every entity that I despise, and is bad for America hates Trump? I like him!! It’s really that simple.
            And you can’t see that it is not Trump but the puppet masters who are playing chess?
            You obviously don’t know that the same trickery was used to establish the Fed. Years before the Federal Reserve Act, newspapers ran stories about how much the famous banksters hated the idea of a central bank when, in fact, they were the ones behind it all along. The sheeple, of course, were easily fooled so they supported the idea.
            The bulk of the drooling class will never wake up to reality.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 1:11 pm,
            Matthew says:

            This clip should be seen as a disclosure. Politics is 100% theater and the masses suck it up like a Hoover Deluxe.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 1:26 pm,
            Chartster says:

            Thanks for bringing that post from 2016. It pretty much makes my point. Look at his opposition. They are all globalist, socialist and deep state traitors.

            It really blows my mind how you think Trump is like the gaggle of goons that were in office. His policy is straight-up constitution. Maybe you are just so jaded on government, you can’t see the forest through the trees? (I kinda can’t blame you for being jaded though.

          • On October 26, 2018 at 2:26 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I’ve said all along that Trump beats the hell out of Clinton and the guy that just exited office but that doesn’t make him “straight-up constitution” — he isn’t, and that should be easy for you to figure out.

  9. On October 26, 2018 at 7:15 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    NSRPF just announced results and tumbled . I bought more at 1.81
    Wonder what Bob Moriarity thinks of the announcement?
    Is Doc buying today? Or Matthew or Excelsior or Charles or Cory?

    • On October 26, 2018 at 8:59 am,
      Matthew says:

      In light of yesterday’s selloff in the miners, Novo’s tumble might not have a lot to do with what was in that press release. Either way, it looks like it is working on at least a daily chart bottom.
      I do not own it but wish I had bought when you were talking to Bob about it at around 60 cents.

      • On October 26, 2018 at 9:26 am,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        I almost doubled my holdings in NSRPF @.49 but never pulled the trigger. Darn! After buying today my avg. cost is 1.05/share.

      • On October 26, 2018 at 11:20 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I think , I can remember when he was talking about it at …. 45cent….. I should have listened to Bob……. 🙂

        • On October 26, 2018 at 11:38 am,
          Bonzo Barzini says:

          I think .49 was the low.

    • On October 26, 2018 at 1:31 pm,
      Charles says:

      Bonzo, I recently bought at $1.57 and I took 50% profits up at $2.00 to lock in some gains. I will probably buy those shares and then some if the stock drops into that $1.40 to $1.50 range that I mentioned below. The 200 week moving average which is trending positlve is at around the $1.60 level which is also significant. With that said, the stock has dropped a lot and probably has alot of base building to do before it takes off so you’ll need to be patient if you buy it in the short term. Furthermore. the stock could alway go lower if it breaches that level. I think I looked at it at one time and the next support level is around $1.00 (there is also another gap at that level on the weekly chart that might need to get filled) and if a full retracement occurs (a round trip as they say) it could go all the way back to $0.50. As I said I think when it gets back to $1.45 it will run into heavy support and so to me the risk of it going much lower is not that great compared to the potential upside. There are several catylists that could take the stock higher.

  10. On October 26, 2018 at 9:32 am,
    Matthew says:

    Looks like a bigger low is not far off…

    • On October 26, 2018 at 9:40 am,
      Bonzo Barzini says:

      I’m starting to think I should have sold my NOVO @$7 last year.

      • On October 26, 2018 at 11:08 am,
        Matthew says:

        You should definitely have sold a lot. Never let a 10-bagger ride.

    • On October 26, 2018 at 12:50 pm,
      Charles says:

      Nice Chart. I have had my eye on that 1.45 area for a while. It seems like that gap at 1.50 needs to be filled on a closing basis. But it seems like the 1.40 to 1.45 area should hold IMHO

  11. On October 26, 2018 at 1:43 pm,
    Charles says:

    Not a very strong way to end the week for ISVLF.