David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 30 Oct, 2018

Risk Management In The Metals Sector

David Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky joins me today to share his thoughts on the importance of risk management for metals investors. We review some of his recent trades which include shorting the gold stocks after the failed inverse head and shoulders breakout. Liquidity is also important to note for investors looking to trade the stocks.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website.

Dave ErfleCory Fleck
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  1. On October 30, 2018 at 12:04 pm,
    Matthew says:

    SSRM looks very good:

    • On October 31, 2018 at 8:51 am,
      Charles says:

      Hi Matthew –

      Can you give me your take on Scandium International Mining (SCYYF)? It is a rare earth mining company.


      • On October 31, 2018 at 9:30 am,
        Matthew says:

        Hi Charles, Stockcharts doesn’t offer it with that listing but it looks good using SCY.TO.
        If it gets past .24, it would add to the probability that .21 was the low.

        • On October 31, 2018 at 9:35 am,
          Matthew says:

          For clarity, if it goes straight to .25 but then pulls backs a few cents, I’d be a buyer. But that’s a conservative approach. It is actually a buy right now on the 60 minute chart.

      • On October 31, 2018 at 9:44 am,
        Matthew says:

        The weekly chart shows a clear “buy the dip” situation:

        • On October 31, 2018 at 9:50 am,
          Charles says:

          Thanks. I thought the longer term charts looked pretty good.

  2. On October 31, 2018 at 1:29 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Gold running out of steam. Is it rollover time once again???

    • On October 31, 2018 at 4:32 am,
      Excelsior says:

      It’s looking that way the last few days…..

  3. On October 31, 2018 at 4:30 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (EQX) (EQXFF) Equinox Gold Releases Third Quarter Financial Results

    @nasdaq on October 31, 2018

    – Aurizona construction progress as at September 30, 2018

    – Castle Mountain prefeasibility study completed

    – Mesquite Mine acquisition completed October 30, 2018

    – Divestiture of non-core assets


  4. On October 31, 2018 at 5:59 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Goldfinger’s Junior Mining Red Flags – Part 1

    by @Goldfinger on October 30, 2018


  5. On October 31, 2018 at 7:37 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Yep rollover time is at hand. Hopefully im wrong but that rally really wasnt much to write home about. Another tease by the yellow metal. The question is: Does gold give back most if not all its gains from this current rally?

    • On October 31, 2018 at 9:19 am,
      Matthew says:

      I’m sticking with what I said before today’s drop…

      On October 30, 2018 at 8:20 am,
      Matthew says:
      Gold could drop to 1205 this week without causing a technical problem:

      • On October 31, 2018 at 3:44 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        I saw that comment Matthew. I hope the technicals underpin gold at current levels. I will say that the hunch I stated at the end of last week (gold needing to hold the $1235 area otherwise downside momentum could kick in) is coming to fruition. I hope it proves me wrong.

        • On October 31, 2018 at 4:10 pm,
          Matthew says:

          The 200/233 and 600 week MAs are very important so I can see why the bears were able to hold back the bulls for now. However, now that gold is significantly correcting following the move from 1184 to 1246, I don’t think the bears will be so lucky on the second attempt at those MAs.

          • On October 31, 2018 at 4:25 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            It would appear the dollar wants a crack at 100. I wonder how hard resistance will be to crack in order for it to get there? If it does strike parity, gold will break august lows I beleive.

          • On October 31, 2018 at 6:00 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Maybe, maybe not. The problem with such assumptions is that parity means something different each time since the USDX is based on nothing but flawed currencies. For example, when gold bottomed at 1045 in 2015, the dollar was at parity but when the dollar hit parity +3 one year later, gold only dropped to about 1135. That’s almost 9% higher even though the dollar made a 3% higher high.
            Five or more years ago, many thought that parity would translate to gold well under 1,000.

          • On October 31, 2018 at 6:02 pm,
            Matthew says:

            If parity is reached due to a weak euro more than a strong dollar, then gold should hold up surprisingly well.

  6. On October 31, 2018 at 9:18 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDX has filled its Oct. 11 gap to the penny:

  7. On October 31, 2018 at 6:26 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Yeh I agree but ultimately a dollar move to parity would be negative for gold unless it was happening during a safe haven bid. Your right as well with the notion of a weaker euro as opposed to a stronger dollar being positive for gold. Mind you, of late the inverse relationship between those 2 currencies has been so definitive that a weakness in the euro automatically correlates to similar strength in the dollar when one looks at their gains/losses from a percentage outlook.

    • On October 31, 2018 at 7:38 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Yes, I don’t doubt that gold will weaken further if the dollar continues higher but it just might not weaken much. Notice on the chart posted at 6:00 pm that gold and the dollar went up together for the last month. That correlation has ended for now but could return quickly.

  8. On October 31, 2018 at 8:24 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Agreed! The dollar and gold going up together over the last month could well gave been that safe haven bid I referred to earlier brought on by the equities rout.