Jordan Roy-Byrne - Techncial Commentary – Wed 28 Nov, 2018

The Balance Between Buying At Lows Or Holding Cash

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold joins me today to share his thoughts on the strategy of holding cash and deciding when to start buying. During tax loss selling there are a number of people who say it is a great time to start buying. However there are many factors to consider and right now holding cash is a preferable position to be in. We also dive into the silver chart.

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Comments:
  1. On November 28, 2018 at 12:01 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I said it three years ago and it’s time to say it again:
    On January 2, 2016 at 2:08 pm,
    Matthew says:
    A mean reversion is coming.
    http://schrts.co/ykWQW3

    • On November 28, 2018 at 12:08 pm,
      Snowy says:

      I would have thought that Powell’s comments about stopping rate hikes would have made a bigger impact on gold today. People just seem hungry for US equities.

      Hopefully we get that mean reversion and stay green to close off this month

  2. On November 28, 2018 at 1:05 pm,
    spanky says:

    You said it three years ago… and then every day for the last 2 years practically. You are stopped clock.

    But you may have actually called the low this time. Of course, you will claim that you “nailed” the low off this 2 year consolidation, ignoring the at least 5 or 6 other times you claimed “this is it” over the last 2 years.

    • On November 28, 2018 at 1:28 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Wrong ya little cry baby. I have now said it exactly twice. What a loser you are.

      • On November 28, 2018 at 1:38 pm,
        spanky says:

        Of course you have to get the last word in, being the egomaniac that you are.

        The only loser is anyone who bought silver miners based on your terrible TA over the last 2 years. But like I said, a stopped clock is eventually right.

        • On November 28, 2018 at 2:08 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Of course I get the last word when you attack. IPT more than doubled last year after I bought the hell out of it while you just whined and said it was going lower. If you can’t take a profit on such a gain, you deserve to lose.
          Most of the lows I called were lows of some kind but THE low has been forming for the last several months. You just can’t see it through your fear and ignorance.
          I posted the following chart days after gold bottomed in August; has it gone lower? No.
          http://schrts.co/f2Hkcd

          • On November 28, 2018 at 2:23 pm,
            spanky says:

            I’m not disagreeing with you at all that gold has very likely bottomed.

            Also, your problem is you identify lows with excited posts, but you are nowhere to be found at tops. You come out weeks later and say you sold everything at the top (or some huge percentage). That doesn’t help anyone who may have actually relied on your “buy” calls. I don’t ever recall you recommending to sell a miner or take profits over the last 2 years. The only type of posts you make that could be construed as mildly bearish are “it might have to cool off” sort of post, which strongly implies that the best is yet to come.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 2:56 pm,
            Matthew says:

            For better and for worse, I share what I think. I do not tell anyone what to do but this wasn’t bad:
            http://schrts.co/HKCRZb

            I also remember saying that I was a seller of IPT above a dollar and later admitting that I should have sold more in the 1.20s (I thought it was going to make it closer to 1.40).

          • On November 28, 2018 at 3:01 pm,
            Matthew says:

            When huge gains are on the table, take them or at least ask what I am doing (that could be wrong!)
            http://schrts.co/FTGE7p

          • On November 28, 2018 at 3:08 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I’m not always right by a long shot but I do always tell the truth. MOST newsletter writer do not. Have you ever noticed how they “generously” share picks with the public that are at or near a high or are fully valued? Apparently, most don’t.
            http://schrts.co/TLRjDK

          • On November 28, 2018 at 3:12 pm,
            spanky says:

            All I remember is saying it would be years before the 2016 peak was taken out and being ridiculed by you and a couple of others.

            Also, shortly after the December 2016 low, I cautioned that the retracement in GDX was too large and had bearish long term implications. I mentioned that the size of the retracement strongly suggested an impulse move lower, below the consolidation zone in order to “balance” the chart. I was told that this was non-sense, by Excelsior and GH. GH was pointing to the large wedge on the weekly chart and said there was nothing bearish about it, or that there was no way it could be interpreted as bearish.

            Well I do think that GDX has possibly finally balanced the huge blow off 2016 peak with this latest large impulse move below the zone of consolidation (which happens to more or less correspond to the 200 WMA).

            I will also mention silver’s giant triangle and tight consolidation on the weekly. I stated that it would break down, and I specifically recall you saying I was wrong and that it was a set-up similar to the triangle in2010!

            I could go on and on. The bottom line is, we did break the December 2016 low, and I was correct to be bearish the entire time from that point to now.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 3:17 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Here’s another warning at the top. Yes, there’s also a “but” but at least there’s a warning. I still do not own a crystal ball.
            On August 7, 2016 at 10:04 pm,
            Matthew says:
            There are plenty of good reasons to be careful here but, based on the weekly charts, the miners could easily continue to grind higher.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 3:21 pm,
            Matthew says:

            It was probably this year that you said it would be years before the 2016 top was taken out and you were wrong to be bearish IPT at its low a year ago when I was bullish.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 3:29 pm,
            spanky says:

            Even if the miners have made a major LT low (which I believe is likely), it could easily take 2 or even 3 years from now until the 2016 peak is taken out for good. Could it do it in a year, sure, but to rule out a much longer grind higher is extremely misplaced.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 3:44 pm,
            spanky says:

            Basically, from the peak in 2016 to the low last month was about 2 years. I am expecting the price action on the way back up to more or less mirror the action on the way down in terms of time.

            It’s after that peak is taken out that the massive move in the miners will begin–maybe a 10x move for the HUI. An epic move like that is going to be preceded by a long grind IMO.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 3:56 pm,
            Whit says:

            Speaking of Impact, Matthew how low will it go? I am going to average down on my price share.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 4:08 pm,
            spanky says:

            I think Impact is a strong buy, finally. It is going to take some doing to take out yesterday’s low, that is for sure. It may not be a rocket ride from here, but I think we have seen the low for the next decade.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 4:36 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I disagree that the rise in the miners will mirror the decline of the last two years. It is my view that the current low along with the low of three years ago is part of one huge bottom for gold and silver so the move out of it will catch a lot of shorts by surprise. If so, the metals will move quickly and take the miners with them.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 4:37 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Whit, I think Impact bottomed when it hit .195 yesterday.
            http://schrts.co/yY2Hqd

          • On November 28, 2018 at 4:39 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On November 28, 2018 at 4:40 pm,
            spanky says:

            I absolutely 100% agree that this is a giant consolidation/basing pattern. I have never ever stated otherwise.

            And just to clarify, I don’t think price action will be mirrored exactly, just the time component. In fact, I don’t think it will be possible to get to 3000 on the HUI without more time. I won’t mind if I am wrong, but I don’t think I will be.

          • On November 28, 2018 at 4:42 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Gold is the kingpin of the sector and it, luckily, looks pretty strong…
            http://schrts.co/CH3heS

          • On November 28, 2018 at 5:00 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Well you know something I don’t if the HUI is going to 3000.

          • On November 29, 2018 at 12:52 pm,
            GH says:

            Ahh, Spanky, back like a breath of fetid air.

            In case you missed it, I gave you credit where credit is due months ago.

            http://www.kereport.com/2018/08/18/hour-1-treasuries-metals-central-banks-run-usd/

            I misspoke a bit there, because I did, indeed, sell in April. But I got back in too early.

          • On November 29, 2018 at 4:01 pm,
            spanky says:

            Well, I am willing to wipe the slate clean. I do understand my venting probably got annoying. Unfortunately, I was right about the break down.

            At this point, there is a set up for a trend change, technically and fundamentally, and I do believe we have made the low. Nevertheless, as I have said before, you need to expect the worst and hope for the best in this sector and a complete retest of the 2016 is not off the table by any stretch–the silver miners are not that far away now. If we were to continue breaking down, I would expect the next window for a bottom would come in the summer of 2019, which coincides with the time the ECB stated it would halt its rampant QE program.

          • On November 30, 2018 at 6:29 am,
            GH says:

            Clean slate, fair enough. As stated before, the alternative viewpoint is welcome, the incessant drumbeat and accusatory tone are what became wearisome. Bygones. May 2019 be good for all of us :-!

        • On November 28, 2018 at 2:12 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Here you go since you probably have no clue what 1.618 is:
          https://www.goldennumber.net/

          • On November 28, 2018 at 5:08 pm,
            Whit says:

            Always appreciate the information from everyone here at the KER report!!

  3. On November 28, 2018 at 1:07 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    FED FINALLY BLINKS

    2018-11-22 – The Macro Tourist

    “The other day Stock Board Asset Macro Research’s Alastair Williamson tweeted the following chart with the accompanying comment, “The entire world is burning, and America is holding on by a thread.“

    https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2018/11/21/fedblinks/

  4. On November 28, 2018 at 1:17 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    As far as buying during Tax Loss Selling – and then selling in late Jan or early Feb, it has been a nice trade the last 6 years in a row.

    ____________________________________

    Last year Goldfinger posted this very telling set of charts from December of 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 where there was a nice rally even in the larger miners found in GDX going from December into the Q1 Run.

    @Goldfinger – “Is it really that simple? Buy $gold miners in December and make big returns within 1-2 months?”

    (my short answer back to him was: YES)

    http://cdn.ceo.ca/1d48h46-GDX_December.png

    ______________________________________________________________________

    Gold bottomed in Dec 2015 at 1045.40 right after the first Fed rate hike in 8 years, and this happened each December since where the metals have sold off leading up to the hike and the rallied after the hike.

    Last year I mentioned buying heavily in front of the Fed hike up until the day before, and Gold/Silver/Miners rallied for the next few months afterwards. That actually marked the intermediate low in a number of smaller & mid-sized producers and larger developers for about 4-6 months afterwards.

    No 2 year are ever exactly alike but seeing a trend play out for 6 years in a row and one that I’ve personally cashed in on year after year is more statistically accurate than most peoples economic opinions are.

    Once again, metals and miners are weak at year end and tax loss selling is doing it’s thing, and positioning in mid-December looks like a good plan once again.

    History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes….

  5. On November 28, 2018 at 3:50 pm,
    Dan, calgary says:

    I have already sold most my miners positions and am perfectly happy to wait to buy them back late December or in early January for tax loss purposes. I was wrong on my bullish silver prediction but am a big boy and have done my damage control. I have sold out of IPT for now and have been accumulating UEX. Just sayin’ to clear my air. Could still see 100 on this chart below before it is over IMHO only. (;-D Happy trading.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$SILVER

    • On November 28, 2018 at 8:26 pm,
      Matthew says:

      If you can’t view a monthly chart, the following one shows the gold-silver ratio stuck just below rising fork resistance for the last 2.5 years. The large fork starts at the 2006 low…
      http://schrts.co/oKwiCU

      A monthly close above that resistance could easily result in a quick move to the 100 area but I doubt that it will happen — at least for now.

  6. On November 28, 2018 at 5:09 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Well noted and true Ex. In light of last nights price action (I talk relative to Australian time) golds move in relation to the Feds rhetoric seems indicative or an asset that is out of favour. With markets and assets the world over being so sensitive to rumour and jargon (misinformed or not) these days, it appears equitites were deemed the beneficiaries in retrospect to the Feds comments.

    Gold did get abit of a pop but it was less than expected given the so called dovish comments given by the Fed. Maybe gold interpreted the comments slightly differently? They dont appear to be quite as dovish as initially thought.

    • On November 28, 2018 at 6:03 pm,
      spanky says:

      Today’s relative underperformance was purely technical, IMO. Nothing goes up ina straight line.

      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold:$indu

    • On November 29, 2018 at 10:56 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Good comments on the responses to the Fedspeak. I would have liked to have seen a bit more of the pop in the PMs off the dovish comments as well, but we’ll see how things play out after the Dec Fed meeting.

  7. On November 28, 2018 at 8:20 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Dan Bongino – Obama, Mueller and the Biggest Scam in American History

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aevtHHULag

  8. On November 29, 2018 at 7:10 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Day late …… 🙂

    On November 27, 2018 at 6:11 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    What to expect from the justice or lack of department….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aevtHHULag……..repost……

    Reply to this comment

    • On November 29, 2018 at 7:13 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      I did think this was really good comments except……unfortunately, I did not like his final answer….

  9. On November 29, 2018 at 7:12 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    Hi Matthew and Doc, I just bought some IMBBY@30.96. How much farther do you think it will fall? MO and BTI had nice moves up yesterday and today, so perhaps it’s IMBBY’s turn to rally.
    And how is everyone here in the peanut gallery voting their Detour Gold shares next week?
    Shall we keep the current management or vote them out? Thanks.

    • On November 29, 2018 at 8:45 am,
      Matthew says:

      Hi Bonzo, it looks like IMBBY will fall at least another $1.30 from here. BTI looks cheaper and a little safer to me.
      http://schrts.co/xVPVRs

      • On November 29, 2018 at 9:04 am,
        bonzo barzini says:

        Thanks, Matthew. BTI does look cheaper to me also, but I already have a lot of that, so I thought I’d top off my IMBBY which lead in Cuban cigars. Doc prefers IMBBY to BTI for some reason.

        • On November 29, 2018 at 9:14 am,
          Matthew says:

          IMBBY is cheaper when it comes to Price/Sales and Enterprise Value/Revenue & EBITDA.
          Diversifying is not a bad idea.

  10. On November 29, 2018 at 7:15 am,
    Marty says:

    Old SILVER STANDARD INJECTS $30 million to SILVERCREST for a 9.9% stake the silver miner with the hottest hand this year.

  11. On November 29, 2018 at 8:54 am,
    Marty says:

    SILV- Had to take some off the table with the 18% gain off the current the $2.20 low just this week.