Brien Lundin Commentary – Thu 29 Nov, 2018

Consider The Debt Situation When Projecting Fed Rate Hikes

Brien Lundin, Editor of the Gold Newsletter looks past the markets and assesses the Fed ability to continue hiking rates based on the Country’s debt. We both agree the Fed will be watching the markets closely however when the Fed pauses the next question will be when will they start printing money?

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  1. On November 29, 2018 at 11:04 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Here’s Why Investors Should Still Pay Attention to Gold Miners: Chart

    Gold miners continue to look bullish this fall.

    Jonas Elmerraji – Nov 28, 2018

    “Shares broke higher in a classic reversal setup back at the beginning of October, and since then, they’ve been managing to make a series of long-term higher lows that defines an uptrend. Most gold-watchers will likely consider the important trendline in GDX to start at this ETF’s September lows. Instead, I think a more important trendline starts at the swing low in August that precedes that September reversal (the dashed line on the chart). That trend is less aggressive, and it’s also a common way to define a trend during periods of high sentiment swings.”

    “Meanwhile, relative strength continues to show that GDX is still outperforming the S&P 500 here. A near-term dip to trendline support in GDX looks like a solid buying opportunity with well-defined risk.”

    • On November 30, 2018 at 5:54 am,
      Marty says:

      I made my 1st addition to PVG THIS WEEK @ $7.06 since a Sept buy@ $6.66. I’ll buy again @ $6.62. PVG IS MY LARGEST $$$ holding, SILV next, and largest share position is GARWF, ONE I’m willing to wait on and have added to substantially the last month below $.18.
      Any favorites?

      • On November 30, 2018 at 6:39 am,
        Excelsior says:

        PVG looks more attractive at present valuation that it did at nosebleed levels without evidence they had blocked out their resource properly. They have done a lot to give the marketplace more confidence (which is good) but many are still concerned about their debt load and if they can generate revenues fast enough to pay it off without needed to restructure and dilute existing shareholders further.

        However, one could say that same thing about 90% of miners, so from that standpoint, PVG at least has the high grade to assist them, and a good team trying to figure it out. This does look like a good place to add to them for sure.

        I hold a few dozen Gold & Silver miners, so too many to list. Most are far riskier and speculative turn around stories, or undervalued miners that have been smashed down to the mat, but if you want a few more conservative plays that are larger producers with good costs, good revenues, and the ability to weather the storm, then I like (SVM) Silvercorp, (ROXG) Roxgold, (SGI) Superior Gold, (RSG.AX) (RMGGF) Resolute Mining, (WDO) Wesdome, and (KNT) K92 Mining.

        I’m much more interested in smaller producing companies like (JAG) Jaguar, (NEE) Norther Vertex, (EXN) Excellon , (IPT) Impact Silver, (ASM) Avino, (GQM) Golden Queen, (TRY.AX) Troy Resources, (SCZ) Santacruz Silver, and (BTR) Bonterra for beaten down companies that may have more torque to the upside as producers whose margins improve when the worm turns in the PMs.

        • On November 30, 2018 at 6:41 am,
          Excelsior says:

          There are tons of great valuations in the advanced Developers and Explorers as well, but too many to list. I like holding 1/4 each in Producers/Developers/Explorers for PM allocations.

          Then there are the royalities companies for the final 1/4, many of which are hybrid Prospect Generators / Royalty companies.

          • On November 30, 2018 at 8:34 am,
            Marty says:

            Thanks Ex,

            I’ve owned EXLLF since $.50 12 years ago, sold 1/2 ( of 4K shares)on a 10 bagger, and watched things languish ever since because they were the richest grade producer.
            Have owned WDOFF after having heard John Embry tout it in 2013 several times, I’m in @ $.42 (5k shares) and still sitting waiting on another 10 bagger. You think we’ll get there.
            You’re so generous with your time & effort.
            Continued Favor & Fortune in All your Pursuits

          • On December 1, 2018 at 9:16 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thank you for the kind words. Yes, Excellon has surged since the bottom in miners in 2016 and pulled back, but so did most of the Silver miners, so par for the course there.

            Yes, Wesdome looks to have what it takes to be a 10 bagger off it’s bottom, and has excellent margins, but needs to keep growing it’s resources at the same time. I could see them getting taken over by a larger company that wants a solid mining complex to bolt on to their operations as a leverage to rising metals prices.

            I do believe the 10 baggers will be easier to grab in some of the smaller more beaten up producers and developers once the worm turns back up.


  2. On November 29, 2018 at 5:19 pm,
    Nigel says:

    Well Brien is right it’s just a matter of when not if the US will get into trouble with the amount of debt. I doubt the US can get through the next recession without having to devalue the dollar somehow. Although I don’t think a default is on the cards.

  3. On November 30, 2018 at 1:05 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Consider the debt you say??? Thats just the problem, no-one seems to consider the debt… Ever! Just rack it up and some poor bastard can deal with it in the future. Good ol can kickin!

    • On November 30, 2018 at 6:26 am,
      Excelsior says:

      When dealing with constantly increasing the debt ceiling; “Let’s raise the roof!” has taken on a new meaning.

      It’s like a college student with a spending problem, that keeps raising their credit card limit, but unlike the real world, the government can just keep raising their limit to infinity and beyond. Eventually, the world will demand the US pay the piper, and that will be when the US does roll over as world superpower, and turns into the UK.

      Until then keep the debt party going and the drinks flowing, as the hangover from this one is a going to be a doozy….