Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Mon 3 Dec, 2018

Gold and Gold Stock Trends For 2019

Doc joins me today to share his thoughts on the gold trend in 2019. We look at the weekly and monthly charts as we as consider the major data and drivers. The moves in metals stocks is also discussed as they have been relatively weaker than the underlying gold price.

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Richard PostmaCory Fleck
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Comments:
  1. On December 3, 2018 at 12:47 pm,
    CFS says:

    OFF TOPIC: Riots in France, Belgium and Germany against imigration.
    For those interested in France.
    French News 24/7 Live in English (mostly)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J78SdCzzumA

  2. On December 3, 2018 at 1:12 pm,
    CFS says:
  3. On December 3, 2018 at 1:32 pm,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    Hi Doc, what do you think of IMBBY@30.5 yielding over 8% ? Thanks.
    Are you going to Atlanta to see Michigan play the Gators in the Peach Bowl?

    • On December 3, 2018 at 1:43 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Hi, BB. If I remember, I mentioned to you weeks ago when yuo asked about this stock to wait since I felt it might get down to 30.Well, It’s down there now and I feel you may get a bounce but the monthly chart still looks problematic. One could purchase a little and then if it breaks down a little more purchase a little more.No, I’m going to pass on the peach bowl and will concentrate more on the basketball team—-I enjoy basketball since I played a little in my young life. Unlike the football team, the basketball team actually has a defense.

      • On December 3, 2018 at 2:12 pm,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        Thanks, Doc. I bought some more IMBBY last week and may buy more if it drops some more.
        It leads the world in premium cigars(including half the Cuban cigars) and sells John Players which James Bond smoked, and Galloises in France. Also sells Winston, Salem, and KOOL.
        And its customers are addicted!
        No bowls for me; I will just think about the 1954 Cotton bowl when my Rice Owls beat Alabama 28 to 0.

    • On December 3, 2018 at 1:51 pm,
      CFS says:

      I had been looking at Imp. Brands and Altria.
      For Imp. Brands I’m showing; (But think it is still a bit early)

      Imperial Brands PLC ADR (Sponsored) (IMBBY)
      $ 30.640.18 | 0.59%
      Bid: 30.57 x 1398Ask: 30.70 x 100
      December 3, 2018 3:59 PMESTVolume: 298,256
      USDOTCQX MARKETPLACEDELAYED PRICEMARKET CLOSED
      Key Ratios
      Income Statement
      Revenue (LTM) ($)
      39.77b
      Revenue per Share (LTM) ($)
      3,200.4631
      Revenue Growth 3 Yr
      6.13
      Revenue Growth 5 Yr
      0.37
      Profitability Ratios
      Gross Margin 20.8 %Gross Margin 20.8 %
      79.2 % 79.2 %
      Gross Margin
      20.80%
      EBITDA Margin
      11.80%
      Profit Margin (Cont. Op)
      4.68%
      EBIT Margin
      7.40%
      Pre-Tax Profit Margin
      5.60%
      Profit Margin (Total Op)
      4.68%
      Liquidity Ratios
      Quick Ratio
      0.10
      Lng Trm Debt – Total Capital
      0.62
      Interest Coverage
      2.50
      Current Ratio
      0.60
      Total Debt to Equity
      2.08
      Leverage Ratio
      5.30
      Management Effectiveness
      23.5623.56
      4.364.36
      8.948.94
      Equity
      Assets
      Capital
      0
      20
      40
      Return on Equity (LTM)
      23.56%
      Return on Assets (LTM)
      4.36%
      Return on Capital (LTM)
      8.94%
      Efficiency Ratios
      Asset Turnover
      1.00
      Receivable Turnover
      N/A
      Inventory Turnover
      6.50
      Valuation Ratios
      P/E Ratio
      16.30
      Book Value Of Equity Per Share
      6.48
      P/E High – Last 5 Years
      61.50
      P/E Low – Last 5 Years
      16.50
      Price To Comparisons
      0.010.01
      4.704.70
      3.863.86
      6.806.80
      22.1022.10
      Sales
      Book
      Tangible Book
      Cash Flow
      Free Cash
      0
      10
      20
      30
      Price to Sales
      0.00952
      Price to Book
      4.70
      Price to Tangible Book
      3.86
      Price to Cash Flow
      6.80
      Price to Free Cash
      22.10
      Dividends
      Annual Dividend Rate ($)
      3.4206
      Dividend Growth 3 Yr
      1.44
      Ex-Dividend Date
      2019-02-21
      Annual Dividend Yield
      11.22981
      Dividend Growth 5 Yr
      5.84

      • On December 3, 2018 at 1:53 pm,
        CFS says:

        Apologies tables did not post correctly

      • On December 3, 2018 at 2:04 pm,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        CFS, I hope you are right about an annual dividend of 3.42 for IMBBY, but it sounds high to me. Somewhere else I heard the dividend is 1.88 pounds or about 2.40 dollars. Either way it’s a great dividend.

        • On December 3, 2018 at 3:07 pm,
          CFS says:

          It goes ex-div for quarterly dividend 2/21 next year and dividend coverage is good, so I don’t expect a decrease.
          The one caveat is high debt and I don’t follow interest rate projections for the UK.

  4. On December 3, 2018 at 1:38 pm,
    CFS says:

    NEW YORK (AP) — Major U.S. stock markets will close Wednesday in honor of former President George H.W. Bush, who died Friday at 94.

    The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq said over the weekend that they will close trading Wednesday in observance of a national day of mourning for Bush. The federal government will also be closed.

  5. On December 3, 2018 at 1:47 pm,
    Paul says:

    Doc you said couple weeks ago that early 2019 gdx could test 17 level and that would be last time we could see gold stocks that low, question is are we going to see retest of lower range in gdx before everything moves higher second half 2019?

    • On December 3, 2018 at 4:20 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Paul, right now the long term charts are saying the odds of seeing 17 for GDX anytime in the near future is low—By the near future I mean Dec. of this year and Jan. of next year. After Jan, I could get a better read again if it looks like we could challenge 17. Either way, I continue to think gold is well supported here for the time being. As mentioned I’m purchasing selected stocks every once in awhile since I now feel the vast amount of the carnage is over. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a muted move up soon.

  6. On December 3, 2018 at 2:50 pm,
    Marty says:

    It’s all in the digital touch of the ESF ( JPM) AND A HANDFUL OF ITS SUBORDINATES IN THE WEST where things are heading.

  7. On December 3, 2018 at 4:34 pm,
    spanky says:

    It’s possible that gold, silver and the miners have started moves to tag their 50 WMAs. I was expecting more choppy action before the FOMC, but we may just get a large rise into the FOMC with a sell the news type situation thereafter.

    In any event, I would expect price to come back down to the 20 WMA once they’ve yanked enough chains around the 50 WMA to sucker in chasers.

    Just a guess. As I said, my original prediction was that we would see choppy action around the 50 and 100 dma cross on the GDX chart, and I suppose that would be the conservative bet, but the banksters have played so many tricks since the lows that anything is possible.

  8. On December 3, 2018 at 7:51 pm,
    cmc says:

    Merry Christmas, doc. Thank you for all your commentary throughout the year, which, if I may add, I place a good deal of credence in and almost never miss.

  9. On December 4, 2018 at 5:27 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (SBB) (SGSVF) Sabina Gold & Silver Provides Project Development Update on Back River Gold Project Significant de-risking activities completed in 2018

    Dec. 04, 2018 (Globe Newswire)

    – Completion and commissioning of the marine laydown area (“Port”);
    – Completion of two cargo sealifts;
    – Ongoing geotechnical drilling in key infrastructure sites;
    – Detailed surveying of the winter ice road (WIR) route for better refinement;
    – Procurement of construction equipment, bulk fuel storage and other infrastructure
    – Commencement of earthworks at Goose site; including quarry expansion, heavy equipment upgrades and initial road and bridge construction.

    “2018 has seen significant de-risking work on the Back River Project both in design and construction,” said Bruce McLeod, President & CEO. “While we intend to minimize risk on the processing plant by going with a fixed price EPC contract, self-management is a key strategy to developing this Project, which we successfully demonstrated with the construction of our Port facility on time and on budget. We believe in our approach in tackling the more challenging components of the Project, such as logistics, prior to a production decision, as these activities continue to add value to the Project and the Company. Prudent capital management is critical to the success of the Project. We will remain disciplined in our approach to financing by continuing to focus on activities that add value and de-risk the project.”

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/sabina-gold-silver-provides-project-development-update

  10. On December 4, 2018 at 5:29 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (ASM) Avino Announces Drill Results from Avino Open Pit Mine Area

    by @newswire on December 4, 2018

    “These drill results are encouraging and indicate the possibility of additional mill feed for Mill Circuit 4 in the future, and as we are currently in a low metal price environment, we are always looking at economical ways of running material through the Mill.” said David Wolfin, President and CEO. “Additionally, I would like to thank the operations team in Mexico for their continued initiative and focus on multiple stages of growth at the Avino Mine.”

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/avino-announces-drill-results-from-avino-open-pit-mine

  11. On December 4, 2018 at 5:44 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (MAI) Minera Alamos Provides Year-End Development Update for Santana Gold Project

    by @newsfile on December 4, 2018

    “As the year draws to a close the Minera Alamos team has made excellent progress at Santana in anticipation of what we expect to be our first commercial mine in 2019. The consistent recovered grade from the bulk test work at Nicho Norte coupled with low cyanide consumption suggests the potential for a robust open-pit, heap-leach operation. As a result, discussions with mining contractors have been initiated in anticipation of approval of our commercial permit applications and making a final construction decision,” stated Minera Alamos President Doug Ramshaw. “The recent approvals of the Company’s permit applications at the La Fortuna gold project exemplify a core competency of our team and its experience of working within the permitting environment in Mexico. We expect that these efforts will be equally successful at the Company’s Santana project and look forward to providing our shareholders with the news of those permits in near future.”

    https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/minera-alamos-provides-year-end-development-update

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