Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Fri 14 Dec, 2018

Gold Started The Year Strong For 5 Straight Years… Will 2019 Continue This Trend?

Craig Hemke joins me for a look at the PM markets and how prices move at the beginning of the year. Since 2014 gold has garnered a buy to kick off the year. Sometimes this buying only lasts for a month but other years it has been a multi month rally. We look at the factors that could drive gold as we kick off 2019.

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Featuring:
Craig HemkeCory Fleck
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Comments:
  1. On December 14, 2018 at 9:21 am,
    Joel says:

    Hello Al, this is a long shot.. but I remember you had a guest a while back.. perhaps months ago.. that had written a book I believe about the deep state and or a pro trump in general book.. most likely deep state related.. I don’t suppose you can help me out and send me some potential books I may be speaking of? Or recommendations in general? Thanks!

  2. On December 14, 2018 at 10:36 am,
    spanky says:

    GDX still acting as I expected it. Again, I am going to assume it works its way back down to the low 19s in the next few trading days.

    GDX and gold have solid foundations. Unfortunately, silver and silver miners don’t. Silver miners have been negatively diverging from gold and GDX for years now, and that trend is obviously still firmly in place. There is absolutely nothing technically speaking to support the notion that silver has put in a long term bottom vs gold. It’s pure hope. While it is set up to potentially rally vs gold it may just be another meek rally. So basically, I can’t rule out lower lows for many of the silver miners even if GDX holds onto its October low (which is what I believe GDX will do).

    During the 2000-2011 commodity bull, silver didn’t bottom vs gold until 2004 or 2005 IIRC. Buying silver over gold is still trying to catch a falling knife. Nothing would shock me at this point, even eventually taking out the 1990 all time low in the silver:gold ratio.

  3. On December 14, 2018 at 10:43 am,
    spanky says:

    GDX actually made its low in September, not October. I expect that low to hold.

  4. On December 14, 2018 at 6:46 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Good interview Cory & Craig, and it was a good reminder of how positioning in tax loss selling the last 5 years paid off moving into the Q1 Run in Jan/Feb.

    There’s no telling if this seasonal pattern will play out again for the first 2 months of 2019, but it does seem like resource investors are wiped out and sentiment is bad, even though things have been slightly trending up here for the last quarter of the year. Maybe if people get positioned in companies to kick off the year it will provide the fuel for another similar run, but what the sector really needs to see is institutional funds start getting positioned in the big boys, which will pull up GDX and GDXJ (mostly full of the larger producers, streamers, and a few mid-tiers) and that would bring in more generalist investors as the next wave.

    Until then, I’ll be nibbling away at under-followed and unloved companies while nobody wants them in anticipation of a similar pattern playing out.

  5. On December 14, 2018 at 7:05 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Call Me Crazy But I’m An Optimist

    by @Goldfinger on December 14, 2018

    “I’ve seen some pretty remarkable things over the last couple of months, whether it be the percentage losses in certain names like GTT, or the Bridgemark Scandal, or people calling for the end of the TSX-V. This is the sort of stuff that one tends to see near major bottoms. But after a year like this how can anyone have any confidence in being invested in any junior resource stock?”

    “Moreover, even in this awful year of 2018 there have been plenty of opportunities for big trading gains if you played your cards extremely well. This isn’t a buy and hold sector….”

    “Call me crazy or whatever other names you’d like to call me but i’m an optimist. Not a blind foolish optimist, but an optimist nonetheless. I am optimistic on the precious metals and junior mining sectors heading into 2019. From the ashes of 2018 we can generate the fertile soil for a great year ahead.”

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/call-me-crazy-but-im-an-optimist

  6. On December 14, 2018 at 7:46 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    London trader Maguire interviewed on RT about $gold and $silver market rigging –

    London metals trader Andrew Maguire was interviewed Thursday on Russia Today’s “Boom Bust” program by host Bart Chilton, former member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, discussing manipulation of the gold and silver markets.

    On the program Maguire credited Chilton for pushing the commission to hear complaints of manipulation of those markets in 2010, and Chilton regretted that the commission, while finding evidence of manipulation, could not find enough to bring action against particular traders. They also discussed the recent guilty plea of a former JPMorganChase trader to federal charges of manipulating the gold and silver markets.
    Maguire noted that the new international financial standards taking effect in January classify physical gold as a “Tier I” asset equivalent to cash, and he said bullion banks are positioning themselves for this by acquiring physical gold for their own accounts.

    Maguire’s part of the “Boom Bust” program runs from the 20:48 market to the 28:04 mark at the RT internet site here:

    https://www.rt.com/shows/boom-bust/446430-apple-austin-new-campus/


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