Weekend Show – Sat 12 Jan, 2019

Hour 1 – Featuring Peter Boockvar, Mike Larson, and Jeff Christian

Full 1 Hour KER weekend Show

This week we spend a half the show on the metals markets and the other half figuring out what the markets and Fed have in store for us this year.

Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com. The Vancouver Resource Investment Conference in coming up next weekend. If you want me to sit down with any companies please comment or email me and I will take some time with management.

  • Segment 1 – Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and CNBC contributor shares his thoughts on where the fed stands after a plethora of Fed speeches this week.
  • Segment 2 – Peter Boockvar is back for another segment, this time discussing the US markets and other sectors where he sees an opportunity in 2019.
    Click here to visit Peter’s “The Boock Report” blog
  • Segment 3 – Mike Larson. Editor of The Safe Money Report weighs in on the bear market behavior of the US markets. Click here to follow Mike on Twitter.
  • Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at CPM Group looks at a number of metals sectors for 2019. These include the PMs, base metals, and even battery metals.

Exclusive Company Interviews This Weeks

Segment 1 – Peter Boockvar
Segment 2 – Peter Boockvar
Segment 3 – Mike Larson
Segment 4 – Jeff Christian
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  1. On January 12, 2019 at 5:45 am,
    CFS says:

    Thanks, Guys

  2. On January 12, 2019 at 10:21 am,
    Matthew says:

    Morris Hubbartt gets it. I posted a chart of the TSXV (CDNX) on Dec. 28 and said opportunity was knocking and it turns out Hubbartt called it a buy at the same time:

  3. On January 12, 2019 at 10:42 am,
    Matthew says:

    Stockcharts’ permalinks aren’t working so this is a test:

    • On January 12, 2019 at 10:44 am,
      Matthew says:

      It seems to be working and that is one good looking setup. GDXJ could fall 5% from here without threatening the bullishness of the picture.

  4. On January 12, 2019 at 10:47 am,
    Matthew says:

    Adam Hamilton also gets it:
    “With gold stocks now enjoying a major upside breakout, massive new investment buying is coming. And the best gains by far will be won in smaller mid-tier and junior gold miners with superior fundamentals.”

  5. On January 12, 2019 at 11:07 am,
    Anders from Copenhagen says:

    Hi Cory.
    Thank you for all your efforts.
    Best A

    • On January 12, 2019 at 1:03 pm,
      Excelsior says:


    • On January 12, 2019 at 7:46 pm,
      Bonzo Barzini says:

      Anders, I am glad you were not on the train from Odense that crashed last week. I hope my friend Kirsten from Nordfyn was not on that train. Do you think this is a good time to buy DNSKY (Danske Bank) which has fallen over 50% lately? Or is it too risky, like Deutsche Bank?

  6. On January 12, 2019 at 11:08 am,
    Matthew says:

    This is called a breakout (line chart to remove intraweek noise):

  7. On January 12, 2019 at 11:12 am,
    Matthew says:

    89 week MA resistance (where GDXJ was capped to the penny this week):

    • On January 12, 2019 at 11:30 am,
      Matthew says:

      Btw, the price action of the last year shows us that that fork worked very well and, therefore, remains relevant. So a 7%+ pullback to test it can’t be ruled out. I don’t think it will happen, but if it does, I think it will be in the form of a quick dip (on the daily chart, maybe a 4-5% slide followed by a 2-3% spike down – the “slide” would be lost on a weekly chart).

  8. On January 12, 2019 at 11:36 am,
    Matthew says:
  9. On January 12, 2019 at 11:48 am,
    Matthew says:
  10. On January 12, 2019 at 12:23 pm,
    Matthew says:

    For the first time in over 6 months, the XAU now has back-to-back weekly closes above the 30 week MA. That important MA is still pointing down but that can change quickly as we witnessed three years ago:

  11. On January 12, 2019 at 12:39 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The current setup looks better than the one that preceded the 2016 rise (of a lifetime) but it is also more obvious so don’t expect the same vertical ascent…

  12. On January 12, 2019 at 12:51 pm,
    Matthew says:
  13. On January 12, 2019 at 1:08 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On January 12, 2019 at 1:19 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      In addition to KTN, I also own KNT K92 Mining:

      It has been one of my better performing Gold stocks over the last year. They’ve been killing it on a fundamental basis and have totally turned their ship around now, and the marketplace is finally waking up to what they may have on their hands with Kora.


      • On January 12, 2019 at 1:20 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (KNT) (KNTNF) K92 Mining PEA Results

        by @nasdaq on January 8, 2019

        >> The key outcomes from the PEA were:

        – Mining production and plant processing capacity could be increased to 400,000 tonnes per annum over a period of approximately 12 months;
        – Could achieve an NPV5 of US$710 million pre-tax, or US$559 million after tax, and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 350%;
        – Over a 13-year period, the plant would treat 4.9 million tonnes averaging 9.0 g/t Au. 20 g/t Ag and 1.3% Cu;
        – Average production of over 120,000 oz AuEq* per annum with cash costs of US$429/oz AuEq* and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$615/oz AuEq* ;
        – During the first five years, average production of over 145,000 oz AuEq* per annum; and
        – Initial Capital Cost of US$13.6 million for the expansion.

        *Au Eq – calculated on above Current Metal Prices of Au – US$1,300/oz; Ag – US$15/oz; Cu – US$2.90/lb.


    • On January 12, 2019 at 1:31 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (USAS) (USA) Americas Silver And Pershing Gold Announce Respective Shareholder Approvals For Business Combination

      by @newswire on January 9, 2019

      “The Board of Directors and management teams of both companies are pleased that our shareholders overwhelmingly supported this Transaction and would like to thank them for their continuing support,” said Darren Blasutti, President and Chief Executive Officer of Americas Silver. “Today marks another important step forward toward our goal of creating a profitable, low‐cost precious metal company. Upon closing of the Transaction, we will be focused on advancing the next phase of the combined company’s growth by financing and bringing the low-capital, high-return Relief Canyon Mine into production.”


      • On January 12, 2019 at 1:32 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (EQX) (EQXFF) Equinox’s Gold Mine in Brazil Days Away From Commercial Production
        Cecilia Jamasmie | (01/10/2019)

        “Canadian junior Equinox Gold is in the countdown to begin commercial production at its Aurizona gold mine in Brazil, bringing the company closer to its goal of becoming a leading mid-tier producer of the yellow metal.”

        “As part of its growth strategy for 2019, the company plans to dig up 230,000 to 265,000 gold ounces with the assistance of its recently acquired Mesquite gold mine in California.”

        “Equinox Gold has achieved tremendous growth over the last year and will soon become a multi-mine gold producer,” chief executive Christian Milau said in a statement. “This momentum will continue in 2019 as we plan for construction at our Castle Mountain mine, capitalize on growth opportunities at our existing assets and continue to assess accretive acquisition opportunities.”


      • On January 12, 2019 at 1:47 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (SBB) (SGSVF) Sabina Gold & Silver Reports Final 2018 Exploration Results and Continued Expansion of the Nuvuyak Discovery

        by @nasdaq on January 7, 2019


  14. On January 12, 2019 at 1:11 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Heiken-Ashi Chart Indicates Potential Reversal of Current Trend

    Gary Wagner – January 11, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #VIDEO


    • On January 12, 2019 at 1:22 pm,
      Matthew says:

      That potential is very clear on a standard daily chart. Look at the oscillators and that probable double top. The MACD, for example, is giving its first daily chart sell in two months. Still, it is looking better than it usually does under such circumstances…

      • On January 12, 2019 at 1:24 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Agreed. It may be a double top, but all things considered it still looks relatively resilient.

        • On January 12, 2019 at 1:31 pm,
          Matthew says:

          A drop from that little top will be a gift to those who recognize it.

          • On January 12, 2019 at 1:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:


      • On January 12, 2019 at 1:30 pm,
        Matthew says:

        The weekly chart is not close to overbought but some sideways-to-down action would be welcome here to narrow the MACD a little. That doesn’t mean we should count on it though, since the weekly picture looks a lot better than the daily one at the moment.

    • On January 12, 2019 at 3:45 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Chris Kimble from Kimble Charting Solutions – Fri 11 JAN, 2019

      Did you know 93% of Assets had a Negative Return in 2018?

      “Chris Kimble, Founder of Kimble Charting Solutions shares some very interesting and important charts focused on the US equity markets. All the charts we discuss are below in order of discussion.”


  15. On January 12, 2019 at 1:30 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (1/11/2019)

    Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum


    • On January 12, 2019 at 1:34 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold / Silver vs. Platinum / Palladium

      iGold Advisor – Jan 9, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #VIDEO


      • On January 12, 2019 at 2:20 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        GOLD – Higher, Then Lower, Then Skyward

        David Brady, CFA (10/01/2019)

        Gold has rallied ~$130 off its August 16 low and could go higher, but the risk/reward increasingly favors at least a short-term pullback.

        That said, the trend is clearly up. Only a break of the recent low at 1278 followed by a lower high would change that.

        > Daily

        – Gold is in a steep channel higher, with resistance at 1310 and support at ~1278.
        The 200-day moving average is currently at 1255.
        – Gold peaked at an RSI of 74 when it hit 1300 recently. It is still extreme overbought.
        There is also the risk of a negatively divergent higher high between 1300-1318 on the RSI and both MACDs.

        >> Weekly

        – Gold is now running up against former trendline support, now resistance, since its low in December 2015 (purple line). That resistance is currently at ~1308.
        – At an RSI of 65, it is overbought and close to extreme overbought.
        – The MACD Histogram is at its highest since the spectacular rally in the first half of 2016.
        – The MACD Line is powering up from its low in September last, but there is a gap between it and its signal to allow for at least a pullback before going higher again.


        1318 Close = 76.4% of 1360 to 1184 on a closing basis.

        1318 = 76.4% of 2016 High at 1377 to December 2016 low of 1124.

        1322 = 76.4% of 1369 to 1167 on an intraday basis.

        23.6% and 38.2% Fibs of the current rally are at 1270 and 1250.


  16. On January 12, 2019 at 1:44 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Bull Case for Energy Metals Going into 2019

    Jeff Desjardins – January 10, 2019 – The Visual Capitalist


    • On January 12, 2019 at 1:49 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (TK) (TKRFF) Tinka Announces Filing of NI 43-101 Technical Report on the Ayawilca Property, Peru

      by @newswire on January 9, 2019


    • On January 12, 2019 at 1:56 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Adrian Day Discusses Five Quality Mining Stocks, the Copper Market/Equities, and Recent M&A Activity

      by @MiningStockEdu on January 9, 2019


    • On January 13, 2019 at 11:45 am,
      Excelsior says:

      For anyone interested in the Lithium stocks as part of the Energy Metals sector, here is a revised list of companies that either have primary or in many cases secondary projects with Lithium exposure.

      Keep in mind most of the companies on this list are garbage, but some may sell their projects or get acquired by the big boys based on location or grade or economics, even if the JR company they are housed within in is still struggling.

      It’s no different than the reality that most Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Oil, or Uranium companies are also garbage, but there are always opportunities to scout out inefficient markets, analyze projects, watch the newsflow, and at least follow the quality names in a sector.

      Anyhow….. Here’s the Lithium Stocks list:


      • On January 13, 2019 at 7:12 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        GM says hybrids are over, reboots Cadillac as an electric vehicle leader

        By Gary Gastelu – Published 2 days ago

        “General Motors essentially put a fork in hybrids on Friday and announced that Cadillac will lead its upcoming electric vehicle charge in the United States.”

        “GM President Mark Reuss revealed the first information about the company’s third-generation battery-electric platform, which will launch with a new Cadillac model that will be the first of many. He described it as being able to accommodate front-, rear- or all-wheel-drive and a variety of battery sizes using an “ice cube tray” design that allows for a different number of cells to be installed, depending on a particular model’s requirements.”

        “Answering an analyst’s question about the future of hybrids in the company’s lineup, Reuss called them a countermeasure to the internal combustion engine and said that resources would be redirected toward fully-electric cars, instead. The move represents a sharp departure by the company that championed plug-in hybrids with the soon to be discontinued Chevrolet Volt.”


  17. On January 12, 2019 at 1:46 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Dancing on the Precipice: ‘Bankruptcy Happens Gradually, then Suddenly’

    by @FrankGiustra on January 9, 2019

    “No one likes a party spoiler, especially a Chicken Little. There were plenty of people besides me warning investors in the years preceding the 2008 crisis – a lot of them far smarter than I am. But when panic sets in, it moves at breakneck speed and most people freeze, hoping it’s just a bad dream that will go away. By the time they decide to act, asset prices are at rock bottom. I am often asked advice (which I am loath to give) when markets initially start to correct. Many people’s first reaction is to hold on until a bounce brings them back to the value before the correction. This is how greed works. I always ask the question: How important is that marginal upside to you in a market that is already overvalued. And, are you willing to risk the value of your portfolio if things really fell apart just to get that extra little upside?”

    “So, you have a couple of choices. Take some chips off the table or party like it’s 1929.”


  18. On January 12, 2019 at 1:48 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (URG) (URE) Ur-Energy Founding Director, James Franklin, to be Inducted into the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame

    by @newswire on January 9, 2019


    • On January 12, 2019 at 1:50 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (AEC) (ANLDF) Anfield Signs Agreement With Cotter to Significantly Expand Its Uranium and Vanadium Portfolio

      by @nasdaq on January 8, 2019


      • On January 12, 2019 at 1:54 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Ranger #uranium mine closure to cost over $200 Million more than expected

        Cecilia Jamasmie | a day ago

        “Energy Resources of Australia (ERA.AX) is reviewing “all funding options” to pay for the full closure and rehabilitating of its Ranger uranium mine, after studies showed the cost would be almost A$300 million (about $213m) higher than previous estimates.”


  19. On January 12, 2019 at 1:54 pm,
    Matthew says:
  20. On January 12, 2019 at 2:11 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    China Adds to Gold Reserves After Two-year Hiatus

    Nicole Rashotte – January 8th, 2019

    “The yellow metal encountered its strongest month in almost two years in December as those concerns caused equities and the US dollar to tumble and sent investors towards precious metals as a safe haven.”

    “Speculation that the US Federal Reserve may halt interest rate hikes for this year has added to gold’s rally into 2019, with assets in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds at a seven-month high.”

    “Touching on China’s recent gold reserves increase, Turner stated, “[t]he reasons could be diversification, a wish to get away from the dollar, but it’s hard to be certain because we just don’t know enough about what their motivations are.”

    “In the past, the Asian country has spent long periods without revealing any increases to its gold holdings. In 2015, the central bank announced that reserves had jumped 57 percent to 53.3 million ounces; it was the first update in six years.”

    “I’m always wary of year-end moves, but if they buy again, then it’ll look like they’re on another run of additions, like they did in 2015-2016,” Turner noted.


    • On January 12, 2019 at 2:15 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The Japanese Government Is Still Pegging The Gold Price

      January 8, 2019 – The Speculative Investor


      • On January 12, 2019 at 2:24 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Gold scores daily and weekly gain, but fails to breach $1,300

        Jan 11, 2019 – Myra P. Saefong & Rachel Koning Beals

        “Buyers are expecting a move to the $1,300 area “soon,” with a pullback in stocks, recent gold purchases by central banks such as China and Russia to shore up their currencies, said George Gero, managing director at RBC Wealth Management. Adding further support to gold, the Federal Reserve is “not rushing to raise rates as traders look ahead to difficulty resolving” the U.S. government shutdown, Brexit problems are increasing and tariffs and trade issues continue, he said.”

        “While reaching $1,300 in [the] February contract could be news worthy,” Gero pointed out that the April contract GCJ9, +0.04% the second most active, trades roughly $6 higher than the February contract. April gold touched a high of $1,302.10 on Friday.”

        “Analysts said movements in the U.S. dollar continued to be among the biggest factor for gold, with the currency in turn taking its cue from expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate plans. ”


  21. On January 12, 2019 at 2:14 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Barrick CEO to Forge Ahead in Latin America Despite Past Strains

    By Danielle Bochove and Laura Millan Lombrana – January 10, 2019

    “If you want to find elephants, go to elephant country,” Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow, a South African geologist and big-game hunter, said in a phone interview. The Toronto-based company “absolutely” intends to invest more money in the El Indio copper-and gold belt, he said, adding that its partnerships with Chinese and Chilean miners remain key to its strategy in the region.”

    “The world’s largest gold miner, which completed its merger with Randgold Resources Ltd. at the beginning of the year, had been revamping its South American strategy since John Thornton became chairman in 2014.”


  22. On January 12, 2019 at 2:52 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I can’t be very bullish the miners in the short term but the downside risk does not appear to be large…

  23. On January 13, 2019 at 8:24 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Ex, There isn’t a week that goes by that I don’t get some great investment advice from you, Matthew, and other contributors. Thanks guys! DT

    • On January 13, 2019 at 11:38 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks DT. Glad to share ideas as it is a big universe of sectors and stocks out there and it helps to peel back the layers with pals here on the KER to look at things from a number of angles. I learn a lot from Matthew and you as well, and all the quality KER contributors.


  24. On January 13, 2019 at 6:06 pm,
    Charles says:

    Thanks Cory for a well worth listening to show.